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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Worst Economic Statistic?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,255
edited June 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Worst Economic Statistic?

There are many economic statistics, some broadly useful, others bizarrely esoteric. Only one manages to be both useless and dangerous. Worse: it’s trumpeted by journalists, so you may even have been taken in yourself. Welcome to the worst economic statistic.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,316
    I've not had a first in ages
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,316
    Great video again.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Spurs v Liverpool

    the real first...

    what could go wrong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    FPT,
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Urquhart, the vast majority of the poor are perfectly law-abiding. For that matter, some criminals are quite wealthy. Police officers making excuses for criminals is ridiculous. Reminds me of the indulgent idiocy after the 2011 looting when Sky interviewed three masked thugs who blamed government policy for the criminality.

    I actually have a theory that some of the problems we are seeing in London now has some correlation to totally wishy washy response by the plod to those riots.

    Firstly, we know that gangs quickly organized and coordinated (often with other gangs) to undertake widespread criminality and it was clear the police were not to be feared. Many of those involved have grown up with zero fear, emboldened by the fact that authorities were powerless, and these individuals will now run the gangs. Add in the mix all the reporting of police numbers down, them struggling to cope, and the idiotic comments of those that run the MET.

    As a criminal, what do you have to worry about?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,688
    Really interesting Robert
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    So: we need to improve our productivity, but not worry about our productivity numbers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,717
    I don't have access to sound at the moment, but is it productivity that Robert is debunking?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,316
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Spurs v Liverpool

    the real first...

    what could go wrong.

    Am calling it now

    Spurs 3 - Liverpool 8
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Great video. The sort of thing you would hope to see on Newsnight or in the British Press...but you never do.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,316
    FPT
    TOPPING said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prince Charles has a Desmond, albeit from the finest university in the world.

    J.K Rowling also got a Desmond from Exeter and she did alright.

    Still it isn't as good as any degree (classification) from the University of Life.

    9.8 on BF seems very short for Saudi this afternoon - not entirely sure they will shorten significantly at any point?
    You can get 10s with some traditional bookies.

    I think Russia are overrated which makes it value in mine eyes as Saudia Arabia only lost 2-1 to Italy and Germany recently.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,717
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    FPT,

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Urquhart, the vast majority of the poor are perfectly law-abiding. For that matter, some criminals are quite wealthy. Police officers making excuses for criminals is ridiculous. Reminds me of the indulgent idiocy after the 2011 looting when Sky interviewed three masked thugs who blamed government policy for the criminality.

    I actually have a theory that some of the problems we are seeing in London now has some correlation to totally wishy washy response by the plod to those riots.

    Firstly, we know that gangs quickly organized and coordinated (often with other gangs) to undertake widespread criminality and it was clear the police were not to be feared. Many of those involved have grown up with zero fear, emboldened by the fact that authorities were powerless, and these individuals will now run the gangs. Add in the mix all the reporting of police numbers down, them struggling to cope, and the idiotic comments of those that run the MET.

    As a criminal, what do you have to worry about?
    Being killed or maimed by other criminals.

    For the vast majority of people who get involved in it, crime pays worse than the minimum wage, and carries horrible risks. But, plenty of people need to reach their thirties before they realise this.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,229
    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    FPT,

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Urquhart, the vast majority of the poor are perfectly law-abiding. For that matter, some criminals are quite wealthy. Police officers making excuses for criminals is ridiculous. Reminds me of the indulgent idiocy after the 2011 looting when Sky interviewed three masked thugs who blamed government policy for the criminality.

    I actually have a theory that some of the problems we are seeing in London now has some correlation to totally wishy washy response by the plod to those riots.

    Firstly, we know that gangs quickly organized and coordinated (often with other gangs) to undertake widespread criminality and it was clear the police were not to be feared. Many of those involved have grown up with zero fear, emboldened by the fact that authorities were powerless, and these individuals will now run the gangs. Add in the mix all the reporting of police numbers down, them struggling to cope, and the idiotic comments of those that run the MET.

    As a criminal, what do you have to worry about?
    Being killed or maimed by other criminals.

    For the vast majority of people who get involved in it, crime pays worse than the minimum wage, and carries horrible risks. But, plenty of people need to reach their thirties before they realise this.
    Crime, sport and the military all provide a lot of “buzz” for testosterone charged and energetic young men.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    FPT,

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Urquhart, the vast majority of the poor are perfectly law-abiding. For that matter, some criminals are quite wealthy. Police officers making excuses for criminals is ridiculous. Reminds me of the indulgent idiocy after the 2011 looting when Sky interviewed three masked thugs who blamed government policy for the criminality.

    I actually have a theory that some of the problems we are seeing in London now has some correlation to totally wishy washy response by the plod to those riots.

    Firstly, we know that gangs quickly organized and coordinated (often with other gangs) to undertake widespread criminality and it was clear the police were not to be feared. Many of those involved have grown up with zero fear, emboldened by the fact that authorities were powerless, and these individuals will now run the gangs. Add in the mix all the reporting of police numbers down, them struggling to cope, and the idiotic comments of those that run the MET.

    As a criminal, what do you have to worry about?
    Being killed or maimed by other criminals.

    For the vast majority of people who get involved in it, crime pays worse than the minimum wage, and carries horrible risks. But, plenty of people need to reach their thirties before they realise this.
    Right...there is the bit in Freakonomics (which is disputed some what, but I think the general premise is correct) that drug dealing on average pays worse than working at McDonalds.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,229
    Sean_F said:

    I don't have access to sound at the moment, but is it productivity that Robert is debunking?

    Yes, very good video.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,208
    Sean_F said:

    I don't have access to sound at the moment, but is it productivity that Robert is debunking?

    Yes, basically he says that the way we measure it is bunk.

    I agree. It seems to me that our success in bringing millions of "Steve's" into the workforce is why our recorded productivity is so low. With low payroll taxes and wage subsidies by in work benefits we have greatly encouraged employment. This is a good thing although it does beg the question of how much of a good thing we can afford.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    That is a wonderful library. What super bookshelves & bookends, and such lovely looking books.

    I do so hope it is Robert's personal library.
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    edited June 2018
    Do other countries measure productivity in the same way? If they do surely it still has some merit as a tool of comparison.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    TOPPING said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prince Charles has a Desmond, albeit from the finest university in the world.

    J.K Rowling also got a Desmond from Exeter and she did alright.

    Still it isn't as good as any degree (classification) from the University of Life.

    9.8 on BF seems very short for Saudi this afternoon - not entirely sure they will shorten significantly at any point?
    You can get 10s with some traditional bookies.

    I think Russia are overrated which makes it value in mine eyes as Saudia Arabia only lost 2-1 to Italy and Germany recently.
    I don't think it is Russia being overrated so much as home advantage being over (or under) rated. It is only in 1966 that the host nation was not boosted by playing at home.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,717
    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    I don't have access to sound at the moment, but is it productivity that Robert is debunking?

    Yes, basically he says that the way we measure it is bunk.

    I agree. It seems to me that our success in bringing millions of "Steve's" into the workforce is why our recorded productivity is so low. With low payroll taxes and wage subsidies by in work benefits we have greatly encouraged employment. This is a good thing although it does beg the question of how much of a good thing we can afford.
    My knowledge of economics is limited, but I've long understood that you could boost productivity per worker hugely by firing the least productive workers.
  • The_Mule_The_Mule_ Posts: 30
    Do any of our German politics experts know more on this?

    https://twitter.com/thomaswright08/status/1007222652665257984

    Merkel on the edge?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,331
    YBarddCwsc said:

    That is a wonderful library. What super bookshelves & bookends, and such lovely looking books.

    I do so hope it is Robert's personal library.

    Paul Nuttall's I believe.
    In fact, if you shaved Smithson's head & stuck a tweed cap on it..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Theuniondivvie said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    That is a wonderful library. What super bookshelves & bookends, and such lovely looking books.

    I do so hope it is Robert's personal library.

    Paul Nuttall's I believe.
    In fact, if you shaved Smithson's head & stuck a tweed cap on it..
    I wonder what Prof Nuttall is up to these days?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ' Prince Charles has a Desmond, albeit from the finest university in the world.

    J.K Rowling also got a Desmond from Exeter and she did alright.

    Still it isn't as good as any degree (classification) from the University of Life.'

    Depends a lot too on when they were awarded. A Desmond from the 1960s & 1970s would certainly be the equivalent of a pretty good 2.1 today.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Some fair points, but on the final point, I thought it was the case that even after adjusting for the barriers to entry to the French labour market that France still has much better productivity statistics than Britain?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,331
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    That is a wonderful library. What super bookshelves & bookends, and such lovely looking books.

    I do so hope it is Robert's personal library.

    Paul Nuttall's I believe.
    In fact, if you shaved Smithson's head & stuck a tweed cap on it..
    I wonder what Prof Nuttall is up to these days?
    Heard a rumour that he'd engineered the Trump-Kim summit single handedly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,314
    The_Mule_ said:

    Do any of our German politics experts know more on this?

    https://twitter.com/thomaswright08/status/1007222652665257984

    Merkel on the edge?

    The head of the CSU, Seehofer, has banded together with Sebastian Kurz of Austria and Salvini of Italy to start closing Europe's external border to economic migrants from Africa. This is in complete violation of official German federal policy as outlined by Merkel. Seehofer believes that Merkel is too weak to resist now that the tides of change are washing over Europe.

    People, wrongly IMO, think that Merkel needs to bend or be forced out. The thing is, Seehofer has huffed and puffed a lot before and nothing has happened. He doesn't have the stones to walk out on the grand coalition.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,316
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    That is a wonderful library. What super bookshelves & bookends, and such lovely looking books.

    I do so hope it is Robert's personal library.

    Paul Nuttall's I believe.
    In fact, if you shaved Smithson's head & stuck a tweed cap on it..
    I wonder what Prof Nuttall is up to these days?
    Professor Nuttall is close to making cold fusion happen.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,501
    These are very good Robert, well done.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    The Lifespan of a Lie - The most famous psychology study of all time was a sham.

    https://medium.com/s/trustissues/the-lifespan-of-a-lie-d869212b1f62
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    from the FT, some chinese obv still think that the City has a decent future...

    "UBS’s London headquarters has been sold to the property company founded by the Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing in the capital’s latest £1bn office real estate deal.

    British Land, the UK property company, and GIC, the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund, said they had sold 5 Broadgate to a subsidiary of CK Asset Holdings for £1bn."
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    edited June 2018
    The_Mule_ said:

    Do any of our German politics experts know more on this?

    https://twitter.com/thomaswright08/status/1007222652665257984

    Merkel on the edge?

    I was in Germany last week and there was no whisper of this - it's either come up lightning quickly or there's not much to it.

    EDIT: I see it's Seehofer making waves. He can try all he wants but the nearest British equivalent is Ruth Davidson making noises about pulling the Scottish Tories out of partnership with the English ones - would lead to a massive loss of influence and advantage the opposition, so I'll believe it when I see it. In the world of GroKo, anything similar in the SPD would be much more signficant, but I didn't sense any wobbles there last week.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    Mortimer said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Everyone thinks their own field of undergraduate study is the most challenging. I therefore conclude that Modern Languages is the most demanding degree. It involves a phenomenal amount of reading, memorisation and mastery of four distinct skills (reading, writing, speaking and listening). I have never worked so hard before or after.

    I love history and am proud of my degree, but several other subjects are much harder.
    Agreed. More interesting too!
    david_herdson said:

    Roger said:

    asjohnstone said:

    Roger said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Roger said:

    Just listened to the podcast. If you consider reversing Brexit to be the most important political campaign of your life (as I do) then the last few days have been disappointing.

    A week ago Boris and J R-M's stars were on the wane and Tory Remainers were starting to assert themselves. Brexit was going so badly that the built in Remain majority in Parliament looked like they might mobilize in the national interest. If May was forced out she wouldn't be replaced by one of the headbangers but by Javid. So the fear of the lunatics taking over the asylum was severely reduced.

    Compromises could be made. The wild ones-Boris Fox and the Bulldog-could be fired and the sensible majority could reassert itself. A period of quiet reflection would very likely lead to BINO or even a moratorium while we reflected on where we were going leading to another referendum in a few years time

    But then yesterday it became obvious that Corbyn the treacherous bastard is a Leaver. With the leader of the biggest parliamentary block of Remainers at war with his own troops we're back to square one.

    Corbyn wants the Tories to own BREXIT but the PLP suicide squad cant help themselves.
    So what exactly is his Brexit plan?
    Do nothing to stop it, let the tories rip themselves to pieces and come in afterwards. I'd have thought that'd been obvious for a long time
    Do you think the country will be impressed by that sort of passive opportunism? I don't.
    The thing about passive opportunism is that the casual observer doesn't notice it either way. The country will neither be impressed nor repelled.
    Quite so. It's the safe move.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,717
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    That is a wonderful library. What super bookshelves & bookends, and such lovely looking books.

    I do so hope it is Robert's personal library.

    Paul Nuttall's I believe.
    In fact, if you shaved Smithson's head & stuck a tweed cap on it..
    I wonder what Prof Nuttall is up to these days?
    Professor Nuttall is close to making cold fusion happen.
    I thought his full title was His Excellency, Dr. Paul Nuttal, VC. MC, DSO, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and the Fishes in the Sea.
  • The_Mule_The_Mule_ Posts: 30
    MaxPB said:

    The_Mule_ said:

    Do any of our German politics experts know more on this?

    https://twitter.com/thomaswright08/status/1007222652665257984

    Merkel on the edge?

    The head of the CSU, Seehofer, has banded together with Sebastian Kurz of Austria and Salvini of Italy to start closing Europe's external border to economic migrants from Africa. This is in complete violation of official German federal policy as outlined by Merkel. Seehofer believes that Merkel is too weak to resist now that the tides of change are washing over Europe.

    People, wrongly IMO, think that Merkel needs to bend or be forced out. The thing is, Seehofer has huffed and puffed a lot before and nothing has happened. He doesn't have the stones to walk out on the grand coalition.
    Thank you.
  • The_Mule_The_Mule_ Posts: 30
    tpfkar said:

    The_Mule_ said:

    Do any of our German politics experts know more on this?

    https://twitter.com/thomaswright08/status/1007222652665257984

    Merkel on the edge?

    I was in Germany last week and there was no whisper of this - it's either come up lightning quickly or there's not much to it.

    EDIT: I see it's Seehofer making waves. He can try all he wants but the nearest British equivalent is Ruth Davidson making noises about pulling the Scottish Tories out of partnership with the English ones - would lead to a massive loss of influence and advantage the opposition, so I'll believe it when I see it. In the world of GroKo, anything similar in the SPD would be much more signficant, but I didn't sense any wobbles there last week.
    Thank you.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,723
    FPT
    welshowl said:


    Indeed. It's not great, and over a period of time it may become clearer to more people, shall we say, that that arrangement is not to our long term advantage. But I was trying to triangulate where we might end up now given HoC maths.

    I can live with it as a staging post to get out of a load of other issues, and precisely because I think it will become seen as a staging post, that is itself easier to be rid of in future because people won't be clinging to "EU nurse" so much when they see the sky has not actually fallen when we have left for a bit.

    That seems a sound argument to me.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    fpt
    Benpointer said:

    TOPPING said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prince Charles has a Desmond, albeit from the finest university in the world.

    J.K Rowling also got a Desmond from Exeter and she did alright.

    Still it isn't as good as any degree (classification) from the University of Life.

    9.8 on BF seems very short for Saudi this afternoon - not entirely sure they will shorten significantly at any point?
    Do please help me here. I've never really got the hang of this betting thing (and since I don't understand politics, feck knows why I bother with this site but that's another story!)

    Is the object here to place a bet in Saudi Arabia, not in the expectation that they might win but in the hope that at some point during the afternoon (e.g. if it's nil-nil at half-time) their odds will shorten and the bet can be sold at a profit?
    yes
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,314
    tpfkar said:

    The_Mule_ said:

    Do any of our German politics experts know more on this?

    https://twitter.com/thomaswright08/status/1007222652665257984

    Merkel on the edge?

    I was in Germany last week and there was no whisper of this - it's either come up lightning quickly or there's not much to it.

    EDIT: I see it's Seehofer making waves. He can try all he wants but the nearest British equivalent is Ruth Davidson making noises about pulling the Scottish Tories out of partnership with the English ones - would lead to a massive loss of influence and advantage the opposition, so I'll believe it when I see it. In the world of GroKo, anything similar in the SPD would be much more signficant, but I didn't sense any wobbles there last week.
    I think the nearest equivalent is probably more like JRM than Ruthie. Seehofer still controls a fairly large block within the ruling coalition, just as the ERG do within the Tories. Technically Seehofer can fell Merkel either by withdrawing from the coalition (just as the ERG could give up the whip) or by forcing a vote of no confidence (just as the ERG could). However, neither seem very likely to me for Seehofer or the ERG. I think he just revels in making life difficult for Merkel on immigration and to make it look like the CSU are doing something about it to ward off AfD for October's state election where they could get up to 15% and come second.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    MaxPB said:

    tpfkar said:

    The_Mule_ said:

    Do any of our German politics experts know more on this?

    https://twitter.com/thomaswright08/status/1007222652665257984

    Merkel on the edge?

    I was in Germany last week and there was no whisper of this - it's either come up lightning quickly or there's not much to it.

    EDIT: I see it's Seehofer making waves. He can try all he wants but the nearest British equivalent is Ruth Davidson making noises about pulling the Scottish Tories out of partnership with the English ones - would lead to a massive loss of influence and advantage the opposition, so I'll believe it when I see it. In the world of GroKo, anything similar in the SPD would be much more signficant, but I didn't sense any wobbles there last week.
    I think the nearest equivalent is probably more like JRM than Ruthie. Seehofer still controls a fairly large block within the ruling coalition, just as the ERG do within the Tories. Technically Seehofer can fell Merkel either by withdrawing from the coalition (just as the ERG could give up the whip) or by forcing a vote of no confidence (just as the ERG could). However, neither seem very likely to me for Seehofer or the ERG. I think he just revels in making life difficult for Merkel on immigration and to make it look like the CSU are doing something about it to ward off AfD for October's state election where they could get up to 15% and come second.
    Extraordinary. If your analysis is correct - and I see no reason to doubt it - then the ERG really is a party within a party, with vastly more influence than Militant ever had over Labour. How did the Tories let this come about?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,314
    Stark_Dawning said:

    MaxPB said:

    tpfkar said:

    The_Mule_ said:

    Do any of our German politics experts know more on this?

    https://twitter.com/thomaswright08/status/1007222652665257984

    Merkel on the edge?

    I was in Germany last week and there was no whisper of this - it's either come up lightning quickly or there's not much to it.

    EDIT: I see it's Seehofer making waves. He can try all he wants but the nearest British equivalent is Ruth Davidson making noises about pulling the Scottish Tories out of partnership with the English ones - would lead to a massive loss of influence and advantage the opposition, so I'll believe it when I see it. In the world of GroKo, anything similar in the SPD would be much more signficant, but I didn't sense any wobbles there last week.
    I think the nearest equivalent is probably more like JRM than Ruthie. Seehofer still controls a fairly large block within the ruling coalition, just as the ERG do within the Tories. Technically Seehofer can fell Merkel either by withdrawing from the coalition (just as the ERG could give up the whip) or by forcing a vote of no confidence (just as the ERG could). However, neither seem very likely to me for Seehofer or the ERG. I think he just revels in making life difficult for Merkel on immigration and to make it look like the CSU are doing something about it to ward off AfD for October's state election where they could get up to 15% and come second.
    Extraordinary. If your analysis is correct - and I see no reason to doubt it - then the ERG really is a party within a party, with vastly more influence than Militant ever had over Labour. How did the Tories let this come about?
    By ignoring the public and its members on Europe for 30 years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    tpfkar said:

    The_Mule_ said:

    Do any of our German politics experts know more on this?

    https://twitter.com/thomaswright08/status/1007222652665257984

    Merkel on the edge?

    I was in Germany last week and there was no whisper of this - it's either come up lightning quickly or there's not much to it.

    EDIT: I see it's Seehofer making waves. He can try all he wants but the nearest British equivalent is Ruth Davidson making noises about pulling the Scottish Tories out of partnership with the English ones - would lead to a massive loss of influence and advantage the opposition, so I'll believe it when I see it. In the world of GroKo, anything similar in the SPD would be much more signficant, but I didn't sense any wobbles there last week.
    Seehofer could certainly threaten to vote with the AfD on migration issues
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    AlastairMeeks said:

    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688

    Unless they are not SNP voters largely irrelevant
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,248
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Spurs v Liverpool

    the real first...

    what could go wrong.

    Am calling it now

    Spurs 3 - Liverpool 8
    That's a shit game of basketball.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,248
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    That is a wonderful library. What super bookshelves & bookends, and such lovely looking books.

    I do so hope it is Robert's personal library.

    Paul Nuttall's I believe.
    In fact, if you shaved Smithson's head & stuck a tweed cap on it..
    I wonder what Prof Nuttall is up to these days?
    Professor Nuttall is close to making cold fusion happen.
    Hasn't he beaten Musk to Mars?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,248
    Theuniondivvie said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    That is a wonderful library. What super bookshelves & bookends, and such lovely looking books.

    I do so hope it is Robert's personal library.

    Paul Nuttall's I believe.
    In fact, if you shaved Smithson's head & stuck a tweed cap on it..
    And, lest anyone should ever be allowed to forget: without the cap:

    https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2016/12/14/paul-nuttall-penis-head/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688

    Unless they are not SNP voters largely irrelevant
    They've made one prominent convert:

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/editor-responsible-for-the-vow-now-backs-scottish-independence-1-4754433
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    AlastairMeeks said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688

    Unless they are not SNP voters largely irrelevant
    They've made one prominent convert:

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/editor-responsible-for-the-vow-now-backs-scottish-independence-1-4754433
    He's a bit scathing.

    “The difficult decisions our independent nation would face and the sacrifices we may need to make do trouble me,” he wrote. “But what troubles me more is the prospect of bequeathing to my daughters an isolated Britain governed indefinitely by the progeny of Rees-Mogg and their ilk. “I have reconciled that independence would herald good and bad. I trust in us to solve the problems that will come our way. If so many other countries can, it is inconceivable that Scotland can’t.”
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1007240473101127680
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,110
    HYUFD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688

    Unless they are not SNP voters largely irrelevant
    The same "debate" I have with foaming-dog fever Corbynites. It doesn't matter how popular he is in the party or that membership is 600k. Its how popular he is amongst the people who aren't party members that is the issue.

    Great for the SNP that likely SNP voters join the SNP. Less great if the stunt unifies the rest of the population in disgust.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Another great video Robert - keep them coming! Thanks
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Benpointer said:

    TOPPING said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prince Charles has a Desmond, albeit from the finest university in the world.

    J.K Rowling also got a Desmond from Exeter and she did alright.

    Still it isn't as good as any degree (classification) from the University of Life.

    9.8 on BF seems very short for Saudi this afternoon - not entirely sure they will shorten significantly at any point?
    Do please help me here. I've never really got the hang of this betting thing (and since I don't understand politics, feck knows why I bother with this site but that's another story!)

    Is the object here to place a bet in Saudi Arabia, not in the expectation that they might win but in the hope that at some point during the afternoon (e.g. if it's nil-nil at half-time) their odds will shorten and the bet can be sold at a profit?
    yes
    Thanks! I'd best not try it though - I'm bound to cock it up. :smile:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited June 2018
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1007240473101127680

    Which must presumably mean ...

    Theresa May is close to an almighty bust-up with anti-EU rebels on a key part of her Brexit law.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    Stark_Dawning said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688

    Unless they are not SNP voters largely irrelevant
    They've made one prominent convert:

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/editor-responsible-for-the-vow-now-backs-scottish-independence-1-4754433
    He's a bit scathing.

    “The difficult decisions our independent nation would face and the sacrifices we may need to make do trouble me,” he wrote. “But what troubles me more is the prospect of bequeathing to my daughters an isolated Britain governed indefinitely by the progeny of Rees-Mogg and their ilk. “I have reconciled that independence would herald good and bad. I trust in us to solve the problems that will come our way. If so many other countries can, it is inconceivable that Scotland can’t.”
    He was most likely a closet Nat anyway
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    edited June 2018
    Benpointer said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Benpointer said:

    TOPPING said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prince Charles has a Desmond, albeit from the finest university in the world.

    J.K Rowling also got a Desmond from Exeter and she did alright.

    Still it isn't as good as any degree (classification) from the University of Life.

    9.8 on BF seems very short for Saudi this afternoon - not entirely sure they will shorten significantly at any point?
    Do please help me here. I've never really got the hang of this betting thing (and since I don't understand politics, feck knows why I bother with this site but that's another story!)

    Is the object here to place a bet in Saudi Arabia, not in the expectation that they might win but in the hope that at some point during the afternoon (e.g. if it's nil-nil at half-time) their odds will shorten and the bet can be sold at a profit?
    yes
    Thanks! I'd best not try it though - I'm bound to cock it up. :smile:
    Ha! well it relies on a particular set of events or path. The first question a derivatives structurer is taught to ask the client, when they devise some complicated payoff relying upon multiple outcomes, is: are your views really that complicated?

    Edit: this was a cause celebre, back in the day...

    https://nytimes.com/1994/09/13/business/gibson-files-lawsuit-over-derivatives.html

    :smile:
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1007240473101127680

    Which must presumably mean ...

    Theresa May is close to an almighty bust-up with anti-EU rebels on a key part of her Brexit law.
    Of course the wish is father or mother to the thought.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,367
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1007240473101127680

    None of this should come as a surprise. For some reason, the Tories selected a Remainer to be their leader and our PM.

    Tory Leaver MPs need to man-up / woman-up and get rid of Tezzie.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    edited June 2018
    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688

    Unless they are not SNP voters largely irrelevant
    The same "debate" I have with foaming-dog fever Corbynites. It doesn't matter how popular he is in the party or that membership is 600k. Its how popular he is amongst the people who aren't party members that is the issue.

    Great for the SNP that likely SNP voters join the SNP. Less great if the stunt unifies the rest of the population in disgust.
    Indeed if party membership determined election results Corbyn would have won a landslide at GE17 instead of losing.

    Party membership is often highest when a party is at its most fanatical e.g. I would expect to see a big boost to Tory membership if Rees Mogg became Tory leader, that does not mean he would become PM
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,733
    That's a really excellent video. I agree 100% that productivity is a rubbish statistic. I've often argued that the mix effect is a big distortion and Robert illustrates it very well with Eric and Steve. I'll save a link to this video to tweet every time a politician mentions the UK "productivity" problem.

    The other point that really struck me is that if you increase public sector pay by say 10% you, at a stroke, increase UK GDP by around 2-3 % (as well as increasing productivity by the same amount). Economics statistics are often rubbish aren't they?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    felix said:

    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1007240473101127680

    Which must presumably mean ...

    Theresa May is close to an almighty bust-up with anti-EU rebels on a key part of her Brexit law.
    Of course the wish is father or mother to the thought.
    Tbh I wish the ERG would shut-up and feck-off!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AlastairMeeks said:

    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688

    But but but It Was Staged!
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    edited June 2018
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    That is a wonderful library. What super bookshelves & bookends, and such lovely looking books.

    I do so hope it is Robert's personal library.

    Paul Nuttall's I believe.
    In fact, if you shaved Smithson's head & stuck a tweed cap on it..
    I wonder what Prof Nuttall is up to these days?
    Professor Nuttall is close to making cold fusion happen.
    I thought his full title was His Excellency, Dr. Paul Nuttal, VC. MC, DSO, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and the Fishes in the Sea.
    I genuinely hadn't realized he was the son, heir and successor to Idi Amin.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Barnesian said:

    Economics statistics are often rubbish aren't they?

    To paraphrase a related saying: "All economic statistics are rubbish, but some are useful."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,314
    Benpointer said:

    felix said:

    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1007240473101127680

    Which must presumably mean ...

    Theresa May is close to an almighty bust-up with anti-EU rebels on a key part of her Brexit law.
    Of course the wish is father or mother to the thought.
    Tbh I wish the ERG would shut-up and feck-off!
    You'd end up with hard Brexit's best friend Jez in power then. It's odd that the EUphile's best hope is turning out to be JRM keeping quiet and just waiting for any kind of Brexit bill to become law.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    HYUFD said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688

    Unless they are not SNP voters largely irrelevant
    They've made one prominent convert:

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/editor-responsible-for-the-vow-now-backs-scottish-independence-1-4754433
    He's a bit scathing.

    “The difficult decisions our independent nation would face and the sacrifices we may need to make do trouble me,” he wrote. “But what troubles me more is the prospect of bequeathing to my daughters an isolated Britain governed indefinitely by the progeny of Rees-Mogg and their ilk. “I have reconciled that independence would herald good and bad. I trust in us to solve the problems that will come our way. If so many other countries can, it is inconceivable that Scotland can’t.”
    He was most likely a closet Nat anyway
    On the issue, I sympathise with the SNP.

    But, his reasoning does seem convoluted and curious: "What troubles me more is the prospect of bequeathing to my daughters an isolated Britain governed indefinitely by the progeny of Rees-Mogg and their ilk."

    The prospect of being indefinitely governed by the progeny of Rees-Mogg is a good horror movie.

    But, even a year or two is hugely unlikely ... and indefinitely seems the biggest hyperbole since ... oh, Donald's last tweet?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,733
    RobC said:

    Do other countries measure productivity in the same way? If they do surely it still has some merit as a tool of comparison.

    You are merely comparing rubbish with rubbish.

    The GDP statistic itself is rubbish. If I paint my house and my neighbour paints his house it doesn't add to GDP. If I paint his house (and he pays me) and he does the same to my house, it adds to GDP. Put up public sector pay and it adds to GDP.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Barnesian said:

    That's a really excellent video. I agree 100% that productivity is a rubbish statistic. I've often argued that the mix effect is a big distortion and Robert illustrates it very well with Eric and Steve. I'll save a link to this video to tweet every time a politician mentions the UK "productivity" problem.

    The other point that really struck me is that if you increase public sector pay by say 10% you, at a stroke, increase UK GDP by around 2-3 % (as well as increasing productivity by the same amount). Economics statistics are often rubbish aren't they?

    That point made me wonder about what goes in to the measure of GDP - anyone got a quick summary? It seems odd if public sector pay is included directly in the total.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,314
    https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/136738/renault-signs-senior-mercedes-design-engineer

    More fuel to the fire of Alonso going back to Renault IMO. They have proven themselves to be faster than McLaren with the same engine and they are recruiting top people while McLaren ponder over getting into other forms of motorsport.

    I think if Renault made the approach Alonso would jump at Hulkenberg's seat.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2018
    Honours list shenanigans according to the Daily Mail.

    The dishonours list: Two top awards went to people sitting on the very committees which hand them out
    Three of awards went to clients of literary agent who sits on honours committee
    Those included the historian Simon Schama and author Jeanette Winterson
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5841591/The-dishonours-list-tainted-honours-dock-again.html

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    MaxPB said:

    Benpointer said:

    felix said:

    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1007240473101127680

    Which must presumably mean ...

    Theresa May is close to an almighty bust-up with anti-EU rebels on a key part of her Brexit law.
    Of course the wish is father or mother to the thought.
    Tbh I wish the ERG would shut-up and feck-off!
    You'd end up with hard Brexit's best friend Jez in power then. It's odd that the EUphile's best hope is turning out to be JRM keeping quiet and just waiting for any kind of Brexit bill to become law.
    And the evidence that Jez is hard Brexit's best friend is to be found... where exactly? The ERG are the only group in Parliament pushing for a hard Brexit.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,331
    edited June 2018
    HYUFD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688

    Unless they are not SNP voters largely irrelevant
    Still, on last released figures that makes the SNP second largest party membership in UK, plus a handy boost in subs. We can do a bit more of that Facebook marketing that you Tories so love using to make up for a lack of enthusiasts on the ground.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,795
    Barnesian said:

    That's a really excellent video. I agree 100% that productivity is a rubbish statistic. I've often argued that the mix effect is a big distortion and Robert illustrates it very well with Eric and Steve. I'll save a link to this video to tweet every time a politician mentions the UK "productivity" problem.

    The other point that really struck me is that if you increase public sector pay by say 10% you, at a stroke, increase UK GDP by around 2-3 % (as well as increasing productivity by the same amount). Economics statistics are often rubbish aren't they?

    That's not correct. If public sector pay increases then so does the output deflator (i.e. price index) for public sector gdp, pari passu, and that is what is used to transform nominal to real. So there is no effect on public sector productivity.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Benpointer said:

    Barnesian said:

    That's a really excellent video. I agree 100% that productivity is a rubbish statistic. I've often argued that the mix effect is a big distortion and Robert illustrates it very well with Eric and Steve. I'll save a link to this video to tweet every time a politician mentions the UK "productivity" problem.

    The other point that really struck me is that if you increase public sector pay by say 10% you, at a stroke, increase UK GDP by around 2-3 % (as well as increasing productivity by the same amount). Economics statistics are often rubbish aren't they?

    That point made me wonder about what goes in to the measure of GDP - anyone got a quick summary? It seems odd if public sector pay is included directly in the total.
    Well, yes, but then privatizing the NHS would massively boost GDP if you left the public sector out.

    The important thing then is not to elevate any specific statistic to excessively high importance, but to use them as useful bits of information as part of a larger puzzle.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,314
    Benpointer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Benpointer said:

    felix said:

    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1007240473101127680

    Which must presumably mean ...

    Theresa May is close to an almighty bust-up with anti-EU rebels on a key part of her Brexit law.
    Of course the wish is father or mother to the thought.
    Tbh I wish the ERG would shut-up and feck-off!
    You'd end up with hard Brexit's best friend Jez in power then. It's odd that the EUphile's best hope is turning out to be JRM keeping quiet and just waiting for any kind of Brexit bill to become law.
    And the evidence that Jez is hard Brexit's best friend is to be found... where exactly? The ERG are the only group in Parliament pushing for a hard Brexit.
    He literally scuppered any chance of the UK staying in the single market with his "not-EEA" amendment that got no support from government benches and then had a three line whip against the EEA amendment. By some method he is helping to take the UK out of the single market.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Honours list shenanigans according to the Daily Mail.

    The dishonours list: Two top awards went to people sitting on the very committees which hand them out
    Three of awards went to clients of literary agent who sits on honours committee
    Those included the historian Simon Schama and author Jeanette Winterson
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5841591/The-dishonours-list-tainted-honours-dock-again.html

    Paul Dacre overlooked again?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    MaxPB said:

    Benpointer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Benpointer said:

    felix said:

    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1007240473101127680

    Which must presumably mean ...

    Theresa May is close to an almighty bust-up with anti-EU rebels on a key part of her Brexit law.
    Of course the wish is father or mother to the thought.
    Tbh I wish the ERG would shut-up and feck-off!
    You'd end up with hard Brexit's best friend Jez in power then. It's odd that the EUphile's best hope is turning out to be JRM keeping quiet and just waiting for any kind of Brexit bill to become law.
    And the evidence that Jez is hard Brexit's best friend is to be found... where exactly? The ERG are the only group in Parliament pushing for a hard Brexit.
    He literally scuppered any chance of the UK staying in the single market with his "not-EEA" amendment that got no support from government benches and then had a three line whip against the EEA amendment. By some method he is helping to take the UK out of the single market.
    Whereas ERG are just promoting a walk-away crash Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    YBarddCwsc said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688

    Unless they are not SNP voters largely irrelevant
    They've made one prominent convert:

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/editor-responsible-for-the-vow-now-backs-scottish-independence-1-4754433
    He's a bit scathing.

    “The difficult decisions our independent nation would face and the sacrifices we may need to make do trouble me,” he wrote. “But what troubles me more is the prospect of bequeathing to my daughters an isolated Britain governed indefinitely by the progeny of Rees-Mogg and their ilk. “I have reconciled that independence would herald good and bad. I trust in us to solve the problems that will come our way. If so many other countries can, it is inconceivable that Scotland can’t.”
    He was most likely a closet Nat anyway
    On the issue, I sympathise with the SNP.

    But, his reasoning does seem convoluted and curious: "What troubles me more is the prospect of bequeathing to my daughters an isolated Britain governed indefinitely by the progeny of Rees-Mogg and their ilk."

    The prospect of being indefinitely governed by the progeny of Rees-Mogg is a good horror movie.

    But, even a year or two is hugely unlikely ... and indefinitely seems the biggest hyperbole since ... oh, Donald's last tweet?
    Just an excuse for a decision he had already made
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2018
    TOPPING said:

    Benpointer said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Benpointer said:

    TOPPING said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prince Charles has a Desmond, albeit from the finest university in the world.

    J.K Rowling also got a Desmond from Exeter and she did alright.

    Still it isn't as good as any degree (classification) from the University of Life.

    9.8 on BF seems very short for Saudi this afternoon - not entirely sure they will shorten significantly at any point?
    Do please help me here. I've never really got the hang of this betting thing (and since I don't understand politics, feck knows why I bother with this site but that's another story!)

    Is the object here to place a bet in Saudi Arabia, not in the expectation that they might win but in the hope that at some point during the afternoon (e.g. if it's nil-nil at half-time) their odds will shorten and the bet can be sold at a profit?
    yes
    Thanks! I'd best not try it though - I'm bound to cock it up. :smile:
    Ha! well it relies on a particular set of events or path. The first question a derivatives structurer is taught to ask the client, when they devise some complicated payoff relying upon multiple outcomes, is: are your views really that complicated?

    Edit: this was a cause celebre, back in the day...

    https://nytimes.com/1994/09/13/business/gibson-files-lawsuit-over-derivatives.html

    :smile:
    Hmm. Was that the first, as the paper claims? Didn't we need to unravel a whole set of interest rate swaps involving local authorities back in the 1980s?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    geoffw said:


    Barnesian said:

    That's a really excellent video. I agree 100% that productivity is a rubbish statistic. I've often argued that the mix effect is a big distortion and Robert illustrates it very well with Eric and Steve. I'll save a link to this video to tweet every time a politician mentions the UK "productivity" problem.

    The other point that really struck me is that if you increase public sector pay by say 10% you, at a stroke, increase UK GDP by around 2-3 % (as well as increasing productivity by the same amount). Economics statistics are often rubbish aren't they?

    That's not correct. If public sector pay increases then so does the output deflator (i.e. price index) for public sector gdp, pari passu, and that is what is used to transform nominal to real. So there is no effect on public sector productivity.
    Is there some nominal measure of public sector output? Increasing, say, police numbers by 10% might lead to 10% more policing, or it might lead to policing becoming 10% less efficient. Most likely it would be somewhere in between but unless there is a measure of police output, how would we know?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688

    Unless they are not SNP voters largely irrelevant
    Still, on last released figures that makes the SNP second largest party membership in UK, plus a handy boost in subs. We can do a bit more of that Facebook marketing that you Tories so love using to make up for a lack of enthusiasts on the ground.
    Poor Scottish Facebook users is all I can say!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    MaxPB said:

    Benpointer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Benpointer said:

    felix said:

    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1007240473101127680

    Which must presumably mean ...

    Theresa May is close to an almighty bust-up with anti-EU rebels on a key part of her Brexit law.
    Of course the wish is father or mother to the thought.
    Tbh I wish the ERG would shut-up and feck-off!
    You'd end up with hard Brexit's best friend Jez in power then. It's odd that the EUphile's best hope is turning out to be JRM keeping quiet and just waiting for any kind of Brexit bill to become law.
    And the evidence that Jez is hard Brexit's best friend is to be found... where exactly? The ERG are the only group in Parliament pushing for a hard Brexit.
    He literally scuppered any chance of the UK staying in the single market with his "not-EEA" amendment that got no support from government benches and then had a three line whip against the EEA amendment. By some method he is helping to take the UK out of the single market.
    Correct, Parliament voted by a huge majority of around 200 to leave the EEA in the end
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Barnesian said:

    RobC said:

    Do other countries measure productivity in the same way? If they do surely it still has some merit as a tool of comparison.

    You are merely comparing rubbish with rubbish.

    The GDP statistic itself is rubbish. If I paint my house and my neighbour paints his house it doesn't add to GDP. If I paint his house (and he pays me) and he does the same to my house, it adds to GDP. Put up public sector pay and it adds to GDP.

    Yes, but how does putting a big flag outside ones house affect GDP ?

    https://twitter.com/BBCRadioLincs/status/1007131943861964800
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    RobC said:

    Do other countries measure productivity in the same way? If they do surely it still has some merit as a tool of comparison.

    You are merely comparing rubbish with rubbish.

    The GDP statistic itself is rubbish. If I paint my house and my neighbour paints his house it doesn't add to GDP. If I paint his house (and he pays me) and he does the same to my house, it adds to GDP. Put up public sector pay and it adds to GDP.

    Yes, but how does putting a big flag outside ones house affect GDP ?

    https://twitter.com/BBCRadioLincs/status/1007131943861964800
    One for Emily Thornberry to answer!

    (What a pillock this guy is – imagine living next door to that!)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TOPPING said:

    Benpointer said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Benpointer said:

    TOPPING said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Prince Charles has a Desmond, albeit from the finest university in the world.

    J.K Rowling also got a Desmond from Exeter and she did alright.

    Still it isn't as good as any degree (classification) from the University of Life.

    9.8 on BF seems very short for Saudi this afternoon - not entirely sure they will shorten significantly at any point?
    Do please help me here. I've never really got the hang of this betting thing (and since I don't understand politics, feck knows why I bother with this site but that's another story!)

    Is the object here to place a bet in Saudi Arabia, not in the expectation that they might win but in the hope that at some point during the afternoon (e.g. if it's nil-nil at half-time) their odds will shorten and the bet can be sold at a profit?
    yes
    Thanks! I'd best not try it though - I'm bound to cock it up. :smile:
    Ha! well it relies on a particular set of events or path. The first question a derivatives structurer is taught to ask the client, when they devise some complicated payoff relying upon multiple outcomes, is: are your views really that complicated?

    Edit: this was a cause celebre, back in the day...

    https://nytimes.com/1994/09/13/business/gibson-files-lawsuit-over-derivatives.html

    :smile:
    Hmm. Was that the first, as the paper claims? Didn't we need to unravel a whole set of interest rate swaps involving local authorities back in the 1980s?
    You are right - before my time but yes it seems so (post-google!). Seems they were taking outright bets instead of hedging. Naughty boys.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    There May be trouble ahead...

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1007247164672806912
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    After watching the Labour divisions,I think there needs to be a major cull of MPs who are past their shelf-life and/or unsuitable Labour candidates.This of course needs to be within the purview of the CLP to trigger the necessary procedure to challenge the MP and face a competitive election of the local party.This is democracy and Labour needs a bloody good clear-out.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Alistair said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688

    But but but It Was Staged!

    LOL. There was an inordinate amount of sneery discussion of this on here yesterday. Aren't all political stunts staged to some degree? As for Laura K doing the government's rebuttal work for them – pathetic.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    HYUFD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It may have been a stunt but it seems to have been a successful one:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1007222870601330688

    Unless they are not SNP voters largely irrelevant

    LOL
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    volcanopete said:

    After watching the Labour divisions,I think there needs to be a major cull of MPs who are past their shelf-life and/or unsuitable Labour candidates.This of course needs to be within the purview of the CLP to trigger the necessary procedure to challenge the MP and face a competitive election of the local party.This is democracy and Labour needs a bloody good clear-out.

    ... but presumably only of those with whom you disagree. :wink:
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,795
    Benpointer said:

    geoffw said:


    Barnesian said:

    That's a really excellent video. I agree 100% that productivity is a rubbish statistic. I've often argued that the mix effect is a big distortion and Robert illustrates it very well with Eric and Steve. I'll save a link to this video to tweet every time a politician mentions the UK "productivity" problem.

    The other point that really struck me is that if you increase public sector pay by say 10% you, at a stroke, increase UK GDP by around 2-3 % (as well as increasing productivity by the same amount). Economics statistics are often rubbish aren't they?

    That's not correct. If public sector pay increases then so does the output deflator (i.e. price index) for public sector gdp, pari passu, and that is what is used to transform nominal to real. So there is no effect on public sector productivity.
    Is there some nominal measure of public sector output? Increasing, say, police numbers by 10% might lead to 10% more policing, or it might lead to policing becoming 10% less efficient. Most likely it would be somewhere in between but unless there is a measure of police output, how would we know?
    It is the G component in C+I+G+X-M on the expenditure measure of GDP.
    But there is indeed a difficulty with measuring public sector productivity because output in the public sector is generally measured by inputs. So productivity as the ratio of output to input becomes somewhat nonsensical.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    MaxPB said:

    Benpointer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Benpointer said:

    felix said:

    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1007240473101127680

    Which must presumably mean ...

    Theresa May is close to an almighty bust-up with anti-EU rebels on a key part of her Brexit law.
    Of course the wish is father or mother to the thought.
    Tbh I wish the ERG would shut-up and feck-off!
    You'd end up with hard Brexit's best friend Jez in power then. It's odd that the EUphile's best hope is turning out to be JRM keeping quiet and just waiting for any kind of Brexit bill to become law.
    And the evidence that Jez is hard Brexit's best friend is to be found... where exactly? The ERG are the only group in Parliament pushing for a hard Brexit.
    He literally scuppered any chance of the UK staying in the single market with his "not-EEA" amendment that got no support from government benches and then had a three line whip against the EEA amendment. By some method he is helping to take the UK out of the single market.
    The single market and the EU with its restrictions on state aid and state intervention are not compatible with true socialism Corbyn and McDonnell style. Why would they support staying in the SM?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Stark_Dawning said:

    MaxPB said:

    tpfkar said:

    The_Mule_ said:

    Do any of our German politics experts know more on this?

    https://twitter.com/thomaswright08/status/1007222652665257984

    Merkel on the edge?

    I was in Germany last week and there was no whisper of this - it's either come up lightning quickly or there's not much to it.

    EDIT: I see it's Seehofer making waves. He can try all he wants but the nearest British equivalent is Ruth Davidson making noises about pulling the Scottish Tories out of partnership with the English ones - would lead to a massive loss of influence and advantage the opposition, so I'll believe it when I see it. In the world of GroKo, anything similar in the SPD would be much more signficant, but I didn't sense any wobbles there last week.
    I think the nearest equivalent is probably more like JRM than Ruthie. Seehofer still controls a fairly large block within the ruling coalition, just as the ERG do within the Tories. Technically Seehofer can fell Merkel either by withdrawing from the coalition (just as the ERG could give up the whip) or by forcing a vote of no confidence (just as the ERG could). However, neither seem very likely to me for Seehofer or the ERG. I think he just revels in making life difficult for Merkel on immigration and to make it look like the CSU are doing something about it to ward off AfD for October's state election where they could get up to 15% and come second.
    Extraordinary. If your analysis is correct - and I see no reason to doubt it - then the ERG really is a party within a party, with vastly more influence than Militant ever had over Labour. How did the Tories let this come about?
    Indeed so, and the parasitic Erg is infinitely more powerful than Militant ever was, its host being in office (if not in power). It is a sinister force led by a hard right quasi-aristocrat, for whom working class Leavers are mere useful pawns in the game.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,501
    MaxPB said:

    https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/136738/renault-signs-senior-mercedes-design-engineer

    More fuel to the fire of Alonso going back to Renault IMO. They have proven themselves to be faster than McLaren with the same engine and they are recruiting top people while McLaren ponder over getting into other forms of motorsport.

    I think if Renault made the approach Alonso would jump at Hulkenberg's seat.

    I still can’t see past Alonso going off to the States, especially if he wins at Le Mans this weekend. Lots of Americans were in the F1 paddock last week apparently. https://www.motorsportweek.com/joeblogsf1/id/00246
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    Anazina said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    MaxPB said:

    tpfkar said:

    The_Mule_ said:

    Do any of our German politics experts know more on this?

    https://twitter.com/thomaswright08/status/1007222652665257984

    Merkel on the edge?

    I was in Germany last week and there was no whisper of this - it's either come up lightning quickly or there's not much to it.

    EDIT: I see it's Seehofer making waves. He can try all he wants but the nearest British equivalent is Ruth Davidson making noises about pulling the Scottish Tories out of partnership with the English ones - would lead to a massive loss of influence and advantage the opposition, so I'll believe it when I see it. In the world of GroKo, anything similar in the SPD would be much more signficant, but I didn't sense any wobbles there last week.
    I think the nearest equivalent is probably more like JRM than Ruthie. Seehofer still controls a fairly large block within the ruling coalition, just as the ERG do within the Tories. Technically Seehofer can fell Merkel either by withdrawing from the coalition (just as the ERG could give up the whip) or by forcing a vote of no confidence (just as the ERG could). However, neither seem very likely to me for Seehofer or the ERG. I think he just revels in making life difficult for Merkel on immigration and to make it look like the CSU are doing something about it to ward off AfD for October's state election where they could get up to 15% and come second.
    Extraordinary. If your analysis is correct - and I see no reason to doubt it - then the ERG really is a party within a party, with vastly more influence than Militant ever had over Labour. How did the Tories let this come about?
    Indeed so, and the parasitic Erg is infinitely more powerful than Militant ever was, its host being in office (if not in power). It is a sinister force led by a hard right quasi-aristocrat, for whom working class Leavers are mere useful pawns in the game.
    Militant or its successors are now in control of the Labour leadership in all but name too now anyway
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,068
    Mr. Max, might prefer to drop Sainz, as he's linked to Red Bull, with whom Renault have a not necessarily lovely relationship (and Hulkenberg has generally outscored and outqualified Sainz this year). That said, the current pairing is strong and could be around for years. Alonso won't be around for much longer and has a reputation for causing internal problems, although he is a very fast driver.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    edited June 2018
    geoffw said:

    Benpointer said:

    geoffw said:


    Barnesian said:

    That's a really excellent video. I agree 100% that productivity is a rubbish statistic. I've often argued that the mix effect is a big distortion and Robert illustrates it very well with Eric and Steve. I'll save a link to this video to tweet every time a politician mentions the UK "productivity" problem.

    The other point that really struck me is that if you increase public sector pay by say 10% you, at a stroke, increase UK GDP by around 2-3 % (as well as increasing productivity by the same amount). Economics statistics are often rubbish aren't they?

    That's not correct. If public sector pay increases then so does the output deflator (i.e. price index) for public sector gdp, pari passu, and that is what is used to transform nominal to real. So there is no effect on public sector productivity.
    Is there some nominal measure of public sector output? Increasing, say, police numbers by 10% might lead to 10% more policing, or it might lead to policing becoming 10% less efficient. Most likely it would be somewhere in between but unless there is a measure of police output, how would we know?
    It is the G component in C+I+G+X-M on the expenditure measure of GDP.
    But there is indeed a difficulty with measuring public sector productivity because output in the public sector is generally measured by inputs. So productivity as the ratio of output to input becomes somewhat nonsensical.
    ah there you are. Just fyi, following our recent exchange, the NIESR model didn't accommodate a possible rate cut by the BoE post the vote; it was a conditional model based upon in/out of the EU.

    As for post-vote performance of the UK economy, many forecasts were based upon less spectacular global growth than transpired. Had the global environment not been so favourable, UK growth might have been worse.

    Classic economists' shoulda, woulda, coulda but that was the thinking.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,922
    MaxPB said:

    https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/136738/renault-signs-senior-mercedes-design-engineer

    More fuel to the fire of Alonso going back to Renault IMO. They have proven themselves to be faster than McLaren with the same engine and they are recruiting top people while McLaren ponder over getting into other forms of motorsport.

    I think if Renault made the approach Alonso would jump at Hulkenberg's seat.

    I'm sure he would deny any such proclivities...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    edited June 2018
    geoffw said:

    Benpointer said:

    geoffw said:


    Barnesian said:

    That's a really excellent video. I agree 100% that productivity is a rubbish statistic. I've often argued that the mix effect is a big distortion and Robert illustrates it very well with Eric and Steve. I'll save a link to this video to tweet every time a politician mentions the UK "productivity" problem.

    The other point that really struck me is that if you increase public sector pay by say 10% you, at a stroke, increase UK GDP by around 2-3 % (as well as increasing productivity by the same amount). Economics statistics are often rubbish aren't they?

    That's not correct. If public sector pay increases then so does the output deflator (i.e. price index) for public sector gdp, pari passu, and that is what is used to transform nominal to real. So there is no effect on public sector productivity.
    Is there some nominal measure of public sector output? Increasing, say, police numbers by 10% might lead to 10% more policing, or it might lead to policing becoming 10% less efficient. Most likely it would be somewhere in between but unless there is a measure of police output, how would we know?
    It is the G component in C+I+G+X-M on the expenditure measure of GDP.
    But there is indeed a difficulty with measuring public sector productivity because output in the public sector is generally measured by inputs. So productivity as the ratio of output to input becomes somewhat nonsensical.
    And outputs are measured (inevitably) in relation to political goals. For example, do we want to see more people prosecuted and convicted, or fewer crimes in the first place? More patients successfully treated or fewer falling sick?
    They are not independent variables of each other.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Greetings from Blackheath in the Lewisham East constituency. Not much sign of election enthusiasm here. No queues outside the polling stations.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    AndyJS said:

    Greetings from Blackheath in the Lewisham East constituency. Not much sign of election enthusiasm here. No queues outside the polling stations.

    I should imagine Labour will romp home! I don't believe the LD ramping that they could win. I doubt they will beat the Tories into second place either.
This discussion has been closed.