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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Italy: 50 ways to leave the Euro

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  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow - almost certainly there will be no deal. Election early in the new year?
    Which would solve zilch and on current polling produce almost exactly the same composition in the Commons
    ... whereas a new referendum would.
    Solve zilch too, the last gold Standard Survation had it Leave 50% Remain 50%.
    Coin toss to settle it?
    Or a second civil war? Remainers Cavaliers and Brexiteers Roundheads?

    Probably wrong way around; Cavaliers became the Conservatives, and more of those are Brexiters.

    But the Cavaliers were the royalist establishment which is clearly the Remainers.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    DeClare said:

    Chances of No Deal Brexit have just dropped sharply. If Parliament is going to get control of negotiations if no deal has been done by the end of November, then the majority in Parliament who favour a deal is going to get one of one form or another.

    EU have said that deal will have to be done by end of October to allow time to get them all to agree and vote in EU Parliament.
    Government is handing Parliament the cliff edge.

    We thought we had to next March. Now we only have till this October.

    Great. Just great.

    What was the provision for no deal?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046
    It looks to me that the Government are desperate to get the European Union (Withdrawal) Act royal assent and on the statute books, so there is legal certainty about Brexit taking effect next year.

    If the EU use the amendment to stall negotiations until 30th November in the hope of forcing the softest of Brexits (entirely possible) then i can’t see the Government surviving.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,136

    DeClare said:

    Chances of No Deal Brexit have just dropped sharply. If Parliament is going to get control of negotiations if no deal has been done by the end of November, then the majority in Parliament who favour a deal is going to get one of one form or another.

    EU have said that deal will have to be done by end of October to allow time to get them all to agree and vote in EU Parliament.
    Government is handing Parliament the cliff edge.

    We thought we had to next March. Now we only have till this October.

    Great. Just great.

    We always had until November, we need time for the rest of the EU to ratify the deal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,969
    We're properly into the twilight zone if there is no deal agreed by November 30th given the EU's (Perfectly understandable) need to have one done before then.
    So if there is no deal by Nov 30th then there is no deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    No we won't as both May and Corbyn still oppose EEA
    We are in a very strange place now, @HYUFD so I would hesitate to rule anything out categorically. Especially, as has been demonstrated today, as parliament is not particularly minded to listen to their leaders on either side.
    There is not a majority for EEA on the Labour benches unless they want to be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas given it requires free movement and most Labour seats voted Leave largely because of immigration concerns, let alone on the Tory benches
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    DeClare said:

    Chances of No Deal Brexit have just dropped sharply. If Parliament is going to get control of negotiations if no deal has been done by the end of November, then the majority in Parliament who favour a deal is going to get one of one form or another.

    EU have said that deal will have to be done by end of October to allow time to get them all to agree and vote in EU Parliament.
    Government is handing Parliament the cliff edge.

    We thought we had to next March. Now we only have till this October.

    Great. Just great.

    No we have until March for the deal to be ratified by 28 Parliaments and the European Parliament. You think that's going to happen overnight?

    It's been said all along the negotiations would need to end six months early to provide time for the Parliamentary ratifications to go through smoothly (though I suspect that six months includes some wriggle room in case of last minute slippages).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,092
    edited June 2018
    Just read a link to Guido that someone posted down thread. Reading the comments under the article I didn't realise there were so many UKIPers in the country let alone that all of them posted on Guido. They're also 100% Trump supporters. He's collected all the nutters in one place. Well done Guido.

    Brexit Bulldog and out......
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,538
    Pulpstar said:

    We're properly into the twilight zone if there is no deal agreed by November 30th given the EU's (Perfectly understandable) need to have one done before then.
    So if there is no deal by Nov 30th then there is no deal.

    If there are not dozens and dozens of meetings taking place as we speak (everyone is of course on holiday in August) between EU and UK civil servants then I will be quite concerned.

    There is pulling things out at the last minute for agreements about agreements. But this is the trade deal. This is our future relationship for the next XX years.

    (and @sarissa that is not twenty!! :smile: )
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Can we end up in both the EEA and the CU? I thought being in the EEA/EFTA would mean that we're in the SM but outside the CU. Norway is outside the CU and has a customs border with Sweden.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,969

    DeClare said:

    Chances of No Deal Brexit have just dropped sharply. If Parliament is going to get control of negotiations if no deal has been done by the end of November, then the majority in Parliament who favour a deal is going to get one of one form or another.

    EU have said that deal will have to be done by end of October to allow time to get them all to agree and vote in EU Parliament.
    Government is handing Parliament the cliff edge.

    We thought we had to next March. Now we only have till this October.

    Great. Just great.

    We always had until November, we need time for the rest of the EU to ratify the deal.
    No deal by the 30th November doesn't give the EU enough time to ratify (Remember it is 27 members !)
    And the whole parliamentary process will take ages if it starts on Nov 30th... but parliament voted today for the exit to be on 29th March !
    How is that circle squared.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,079
    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Unfortunately it wont solve the Irish border as EEA precludes a customs union.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046

    It looks to me that the Government are desperate to get the European Union (Withdrawal) Act royal assent and on the statute books, so there is legal certainty about Brexit taking effect next year.

    If the EU use the amendment to stall negotiations until 30th November in the hope of forcing the softest of Brexits (entirely possible) then i can’t see the Government surviving.

    The other possibility is that May is trying to show the EU she can get a deal through the UK Parliament, to unlock hitherto stalled negotiations (since the Lords made their amendments) but there are a number of ways the EU could play this.

    They might not necessarily care about May surviving, even though I would in their situation.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    GIN1138 said:

    currystar said:

    MaxPB said:

    currystar said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Currystar,


    "I think the chances of a deal being done are so much higher now."

    You could be right. It will concentrate the minds of the negotiators. The alternative is several years of uncertainty which no one wants.

    I think it is a very clever move, the EU will be desperate for a deal now, they will not want the alternative.
    Will they? Parliament is full to the brim with the worst kind of remainer, the longer they drag it out the more chance that Parliament will take any kind of shite deal. The EU just got a huge win, our MPs are working to strengthen the hand of our enemy. It's absolutely disgraceful.
    There is no way that will happen, the press coverage of any MP doing what they can to block Brexit will just be too awful for any MP to risk it.
    You really think they care? :D
    Yes
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited June 2018
    A pessimistic article on the EEA. It seems that it may not be on offer as an option.

    https://www.ippr.org/blog/britain-is-still-clueless-about-the-eu-s-motives-in-brexit-negotiations
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,136
    Pulpstar said:

    DeClare said:

    Chances of No Deal Brexit have just dropped sharply. If Parliament is going to get control of negotiations if no deal has been done by the end of November, then the majority in Parliament who favour a deal is going to get one of one form or another.

    EU have said that deal will have to be done by end of October to allow time to get them all to agree and vote in EU Parliament.
    Government is handing Parliament the cliff edge.

    We thought we had to next March. Now we only have till this October.

    Great. Just great.

    We always had until November, we need time for the rest of the EU to ratify the deal.
    No deal by the 30th November doesn't give the EU enough time to ratify (Remember it is 27 members !)
    And the whole parliamentary process will take ages if it starts on Nov 30th... but parliament voted today for the exit to be on 29th March !
    How is that circle squared.
    Parliament can change the law again and move the exit date.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Roger said:

    Just read a link to Guido that someone posted down thread. Reading the comments under the article I didn't realise there were so many UKIPers in the country let alone that all of them posted on Guido. They're also 100% Trump supporters. He's collected all the nutters in one place. Well done Guido.

    Brexit Bulldog and out......

    Your extreme views would be deemed too wild for The Canary or Guido tbf
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Unfortunately it wont solve the Irish border as EEA precludes a customs union.
    Only technically speaking. If the EU says it’s happy for us to have SM and CU with four freedoms the EEA aren’t going to block it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,969

    Pulpstar said:

    DeClare said:

    Chances of No Deal Brexit have just dropped sharply. If Parliament is going to get control of negotiations if no deal has been done by the end of November, then the majority in Parliament who favour a deal is going to get one of one form or another.

    EU have said that deal will have to be done by end of October to allow time to get them all to agree and vote in EU Parliament.
    Government is handing Parliament the cliff edge.

    We thought we had to next March. Now we only have till this October.

    Great. Just great.

    We always had until November, we need time for the rest of the EU to ratify the deal.
    No deal by the 30th November doesn't give the EU enough time to ratify (Remember it is 27 members !)
    And the whole parliamentary process will take ages if it starts on Nov 30th... but parliament voted today for the exit to be on 29th March !
    How is that circle squared.
    Parliament can change the law again and move the exit date.
    Parliament can propose to change the exit date, BUT the EU need to agree to that. Why should Barnier ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,547
    Pulpstar said:

    We're properly into the twilight zone if there is no deal agreed by November 30th given the EU's (Perfectly understandable) need to have one done before then.
    So if there is no deal by Nov 30th then there is no deal.

    Parliament votes to move A50 date?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,136
    We were discussing this the other day.

    https://twitter.com/DimitarBechev/status/1006565713950265345
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Chances of No Deal Brexit have just dropped sharply. If Parliament is going to get control of negotiations if no deal has been done by the end of November, then the majority in Parliament who favour a deal is going to get one of one form or another.

    I am reminded of the votes over the proportion of the Lords that would be elected where all the options were defeated - though there was a majority in the Commons for Lords Reform there was no majority for a specific choice of reform, given several alternatives.

    I could see the same scenario playing out with Brexit.

    The difference being that once the Withdrawal Bill is passed then leaving with no deal becomes the status quo option in the absence of an alternative being agreed.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,079

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    We're properly into the twilight zone if there is no deal agreed by November 30th given the EU's (Perfectly understandable) need to have one done before then.
    So if there is no deal by Nov 30th then there is no deal.

    Not so. The EU can go to the 59th minute of the 11th hour, and frequently does so as a negotiating strategy. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, and it can be agreed at any time until we actually leave the legal grasp of the EU – several years hence.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    PeterC said:

    A pessimistic article on the EEA. It seems that it may not be on offer as an option.

    https://www.ippr.org/blog/britain-is-still-clueless-about-the-eu-s-motives-in-brexit-negotiations

    This is one of the weird things - the whole debate in the UK, including most of the Lords amendments, assumes we can pick any option we like, whether or not the EU wants to play ball. In the case of the EEA it's not even just the EU - it's all the EFTA countries as well (even including Switzerland, because the EFTA treaties would have to be revised).
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    edited June 2018
    Looks like it's not quite what some people thought.

    Laura K:

    We understand the government is willing to concede to the demand for a parliamentary motion in the event a final Brexit deal is voted down.

    A parliamentary motion could be amended and voted on.

    However, the government is not willing to agree to Conservative MP Dominic Grieve’s call for MPs to take control of negotiations in the last resort.

    One of the leading Tory rebels has told the BBC “the government has bent not broken,” but it leaves the “fight for another day”.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-44440809
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,136
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DeClare said:

    Chances of No Deal Brexit have just dropped sharply. If Parliament is going to get control of negotiations if no deal has been done by the end of November, then the majority in Parliament who favour a deal is going to get one of one form or another.

    EU have said that deal will have to be done by end of October to allow time to get them all to agree and vote in EU Parliament.
    Government is handing Parliament the cliff edge.

    We thought we had to next March. Now we only have till this October.

    Great. Just great.

    We always had until November, we need time for the rest of the EU to ratify the deal.
    No deal by the 30th November doesn't give the EU enough time to ratify (Remember it is 27 members !)
    And the whole parliamentary process will take ages if it starts on Nov 30th... but parliament voted today for the exit to be on 29th March !
    How is that circle squared.
    Parliament can change the law again and move the exit date.
    Parliament can propose to change the exit date, BUT the EU need to agree to that. Why should Barnier ?
    In their interests.

    (Yes I know I sound like the half witted Leavers who said they need us more than we need them)

    But a disorderly Brexit isn't uniform across the EU it'll disproportionately impact several countries particularly Ireland and Spain.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    TGOHF said:

    You can't base policy on threats - real or imagined. That doesn't bring anything to the debate other than attention seeking and victim hood. Poor.
    TGOHF said:

    You can't base policy on threats - real or imagined. That doesn't bring anything to the debate other than attention seeking and victim hood. Poor.
    Yes, let’s dismiss and belittle her concerns. There has never been a case of an elected politician being murdered by a right-wing Brexit extremist after all.

    Moron.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    edited June 2018

    PeterC said:

    A pessimistic article on the EEA. It seems that it may not be on offer as an option.

    https://www.ippr.org/blog/britain-is-still-clueless-about-the-eu-s-motives-in-brexit-negotiations

    This is one of the weird things - the whole debate in the UK, including most of the Lords amendments, assumes we can pick any option we like, whether or not the EU wants to play ball. In the case of the EEA it's not even just the EU - it's all the EFTA countries as well (even including Switzerland, because the EFTA treaties would have to be revised).
    Aren't we already in the EEA?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,969
    edited June 2018
    The one thing that today has done I think is to secure May (For 2018), and no general election in 2018.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,172
    MikeL said:

    Looks like it's not quite what some people thought.

    Laura K:

    We understand the government is willing to concede to the demand for a parliamentary motion in the event a final Brexit deal is voted down.

    A parliamentary motion could be amended and voted on.

    However, the government is not willing to agree to Conservative MP Dominic Grieve’s call for MPs to take control of negotiations in the last resort.

    One of the leading Tory rebels has told the BBC “the government has bent not broken,” but it leaves the “fight for another day”.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-44440809

    I’m pleased that the government has not agreed to a fundamental impossibility.

    Golden rule of Brexit strikes again...
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    The North Former Yugoslav Republic of Former Macedonia?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,069

    TGOHF said:

    How are the EU going to cover the £39Bn hole in their accounts if no deal ?

    Tariffs on imports from the UK?

    We import more than we export to the EU, so they'll lose that game.

    It was tongue in cheek really but any import duties we exact on goods coiming into the UK will be paid for by UK consumers, not out of the EU budget... whereas duties charged on UK goods going to the EU (paid for by EU consumers) could (presumably) be diverted bolster the EU budget. Approciate it would only make a small dent in the gap.

    But anyway 'no deal' looks less likely than it did at lunchtime. Thankfully. :smile:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,538

    PeterC said:

    A pessimistic article on the EEA. It seems that it may not be on offer as an option.

    https://www.ippr.org/blog/britain-is-still-clueless-about-the-eu-s-motives-in-brexit-negotiations

    This is one of the weird things - the whole debate in the UK, including most of the Lords amendments, assumes we can pick any option we like, whether or not the EU wants to play ball. In the case of the EEA it's not even just the EU - it's all the EFTA countries as well (even including Switzerland, because the EFTA treaties would have to be revised).
    Very very early on, well prior to the Referendum, I noted, because it had been told to me by someone close to the situation, that the EEA was not an option "for a country the size of the UK".

    It seems that we have all been getting ahead of ourselves, myself included.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    TGOHF said:

    You can't base policy on threats - real or imagined. That doesn't bring anything to the debate other than attention seeking and victim hood. Poor.
    TGOHF said:

    You can't base policy on threats - real or imagined. That doesn't bring anything to the debate other than attention seeking and victim hood. Poor.
    Yes, let’s dismiss and belittle her concerns. There has never been a case of an elected politician being murdered by a right-wing Brexit extremist after all.

    Moron.
    Nor was that a one-off:

    https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1006567489222922240
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,079
    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Unfortunately it wont solve the Irish border as EEA precludes a customs union.
    Only technically speaking. If the EU says it’s happy for us to have SM and CU with four freedoms the EEA aren’t going to block it.
    Yes they are. We cannot be part of the EEA and in the Customs Union.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,280
    MikeL said:

    Looks like it's not quite what some people thought.

    Laura K:

    We understand the government is willing to concede to the demand for a parliamentary motion in the event a final Brexit deal is voted down.

    A parliamentary motion could be amended and voted on.

    However, the government is not willing to agree to Conservative MP Dominic Grieve’s call for MPs to take control of negotiations in the last resort.

    One of the leading Tory rebels has told the BBC “the government has bent not broken,” but it leaves the “fight for another day”.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-44440809

    Damp squib comes to mind...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2018
    Jonathan said:

    PeterC said:

    A pessimistic article on the EEA. It seems that it may not be on offer as an option.

    https://www.ippr.org/blog/britain-is-still-clueless-about-the-eu-s-motives-in-brexit-negotiations

    This is one of the weird things - the whole debate in the UK, including most of the Lords amendments, assumes we can pick any option we like, whether or not the EU wants to play ball. In the case of the EEA it's not even just the EU - it's all the EFTA countries as well (even including Switzerland, because the EFTA treaties would have to be revised).
    Aren't we already in the EEA?
    Quiet, you'll set Richard Tyndall off again.

    (The short answer is No. The slightly longer answer is that we are signatories to the EEA treaty as EU members. The EEA treaty is a treaty between the EU states and the three EFTA states excluding Switzerland, and leaving the EU wouldn't automatically transfer us to the other side of the treaty.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,973

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Unfortunately it wont solve the Irish border as EEA precludes a customs union.
    Only technically speaking. If the EU says it’s happy for us to have SM and CU with four freedoms the EEA aren’t going to block it.
    Yes they are. We cannot be part of the EEA and in the Customs Union.
    We can if the EEA treaty is amended, which it would have to be anyway.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,069

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,280

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    I thought diplomacy was conducted under the royal prerogative?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Unfortunately it wont solve the Irish border as EEA precludes a customs union.
    Only technically speaking. If the EU says it’s happy for us to have SM and CU with four freedoms the EEA aren’t going to block it.
    Yes they are. We cannot be part of the EEA and in the Customs Union.
    Why would they block it? Why is it in their interests at all?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,172

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Looks like a small group of Remain Tory MPs has TMay by the throat in as much of a vice as the ERG.She is held captive by 2 competing groups.
    Running through cornfields might just look like paradise just now.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,172

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Unfortunately it wont solve the Irish border as EEA precludes a customs union.
    Only technically speaking. If the EU says it’s happy for us to have SM and CU with four freedoms the EEA aren’t going to block it.
    Yes they are. We cannot be part of the EEA and in the Customs Union.
    We can if the EEA treaty is amended, which it would have to be anyway.
    I think the existing EEA members might have something to say about that...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,069
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,633
    Was that in her gift to offer? She could be packing her bags by Friday...
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Unfortunately it wont solve the Irish border as EEA precludes a customs union.
    Only technically speaking. If the EU says it’s happy for us to have SM and CU with four freedoms the EEA aren’t going to block it.
    Yes they are. We cannot be part of the EEA and in the Customs Union.
    We can if the EEA treaty is amended, which it would have to be anyway.
    I think the existing EEA members might have something to say about that...
    Why would they say "no", rather than "yes"?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,547

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,172

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Unfortunately it wont solve the Irish border as EEA precludes a customs union.
    Only technically speaking. If the EU says it’s happy for us to have SM and CU with four freedoms the EEA aren’t going to block it.
    Yes they are. We cannot be part of the EEA and in the Customs Union.
    We can if the EEA treaty is amended, which it would have to be anyway.
    I think the existing EEA members might have something to say about that...
    Why would they say "no", rather than "yes"?
    Because the might not want to be in the Customs Union
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,069

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
    The HoC can get rid of the PM, and ergo the Cabinet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
    The HofC could abolish the PM and the Cabinet if it wishes as Parliament is sovereign and that is the basis of our unwritten constitution as Charles 1st found out
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,280

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
    The HoC can get rid of the PM, and ergo the Cabinet.
    I thought it "got rid" of the government in a motion of no confidence?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,172

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The cabinet are appointed by the PM, with the power of the Crown.

    The HoC has no such power to get rid of a cabinet.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,549

    The North Former Yugoslav Republic of Former Macedonia?
    County of County Durham County Council has a rival!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,069
    edited June 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
    The HofC could abolish the PM and the Cabinet if it wishes as Parliament is sovereign and that is the basis of our unwritten constitution as Charles 1st found out
    HYFUD and I are agreed - that's a first! :wink:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,069
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
    The HoC can get rid of the PM, and ergo the Cabinet.
    I thought it "got rid" of the government in a motion of no confidence?
    Indeed - and in so doing the HoC will have got rid of the Cabinet.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
    Technically they are all appointed by HMQ and could be dismissed by her at any time
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited June 2018
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Unfortunately it wont solve the Irish border as EEA precludes a customs union.
    Only technically speaking. If the EU says it’s happy for us to have SM and CU with four freedoms the EEA aren’t going to block it.
    Yes they are. We cannot be part of the EEA and in the Customs Union.
    We can if the EEA treaty is amended, which it would have to be anyway.
    I think the existing EEA members might have something to say about that...
    Why would they say "no", rather than "yes"?
    Because the might not want to be in the Customs Union
    Okay, but why would our choice to join the EU Customs Union have to apply to them? Are the members of the EFTA in a Customs Union with each other?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    The House of Commons resolves itself into a committee, and in that form requests the monarch to sign the treaty. Simple. If you've got an unwritten constitution you might as well make it work for you.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    The North Former Yugoslav Republic of Former Macedonia?
    County of County Durham County Council has a rival!
    They should have gone for The Republic Formerly Known As Macedonia. And painted "Slav" on their cheek.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,280

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
    The HoC can get rid of the PM, and ergo the Cabinet.
    I thought it "got rid" of the government in a motion of no confidence?
    Indeed - and in so doing the HoC will have got rid of the Cabinet.
    But it can’t do a precision strike. It’s the government or nothing.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Not Strong Not Stable
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,258
    Pish to this parliamentary posturing I'm here to deliver something far more interesting.

    Namely today's Tesco Strawberry score

    Aberdeenshire
    Angus
    Norfolk
    Cambridgeshire
    Herefordshire
    Somerset
    West Sussex
    Surrey
    Kent

    A total of nine, which is two down IIRC from Sunday.

    West Sussex is a newcomer generally and Norfolk is a Tesco newcomer.

    The east/west split receives extra confirmation.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,172

    The House of Commons resolves itself into a committee, and in that form requests the monarch to sign the treaty. Simple. If you've got an unwritten constitution you might as well make it work for you.

    I do love PB sometimes; clarification on the actual detail of the small concession offered to the Tory rebels has proved all this moot but we're still running with the possibilities.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,547

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
    Technically they are all appointed by HMQ and could be dismissed by her at any time
    She must be bloody tempted at the moment...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,547
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
    The HoC can get rid of the PM, and ergo the Cabinet.
    I thought it "got rid" of the government in a motion of no confidence?
    Indeed - and in so doing the HoC will have got rid of the Cabinet.
    But it can’t do a precision strike. It’s the government or nothing.
    Exactly.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,172
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
    The HoC can get rid of the PM, and ergo the Cabinet.
    I thought it "got rid" of the government in a motion of no confidence?
    Indeed - and in so doing the HoC will have got rid of the Cabinet.
    But it can’t do a precision strike. It’s the government or nothing.
    Indeed. And there would need to be a replacement government. Ben seems to be forgetting that Parliament is not an Executive, but a Legislature.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Mortimer said:

    The House of Commons resolves itself into a committee, and in that form requests the monarch to sign the treaty. Simple. If you've got an unwritten constitution you might as well make it work for you.

    I do love PB sometimes; clarification on the actual detail of the small concession offered to the Tory rebels has proved all this moot but we're still running with the possibilities.

    Small concession!!!!


    So small you can see it from Brussels
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,914
    Nigelb said:

    Is that an invisible crystal ball he's trying to grasp ?

    Having taken the time to actually watch the video, it seems to have become an invisible beach ball the redoubtable Smithson Jnr. is fondling.

    That minor distraction apart, it’s a model of clarity. Keep them coming.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Have any details of exactly what the “Customs Arrangement” backed by Morgan, JRM et al been released?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Have any details of exactly what the “Customs Arrangement” backed by Morgan, JRM et al been released?

    Unicorns and Apple Pie.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,280

    Have any details of exactly what the “Customs Arrangement” backed by Morgan, JRM et al been released?

    Isn’t the text of the amendment on one of the previous thread headers? The wording is vague enough that any treaty dealing with customs should be sufficient.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923
    edited June 2018
    I think dinner this evening with mrs lee could be a bit tricky...how was your day darling...well I took a £30k + perks pay cut...why did you do that...matter of principle...and how have you used this new found freedom...I abstained....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,258
    Ref today's employment data

    I notice that public sector employment has now increased for five consecutive quarters.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/publicsectorpersonnel/bulletins/publicsectoremployment/march2018
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Is this absurdity due to his lack of resolve, or a massive failure on the part of the Whips/PM to manage their climbdown effectively?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,136
    edited June 2018
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
    The HoC can get rid of the PM, and ergo the Cabinet.
    I thought it "got rid" of the government in a motion of no confidence?
    There's some poor students of history and Parliamentary procedure on PB.

    Parliament can remove a PM or cabinet ministers.

    Here's the most recent attempt.

    *History lesson today - Impeachment is a British procedure which the Americans then borrowed*

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_motion_to_impeach_Tony_Blair

    Edit 1 - Ha, they used Phil Shiner as their legal adviser

    Edit 2 - Boris Johnson signed the impeachment motion
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,069
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
    The HoC can get rid of the PM, and ergo the Cabinet.
    I thought it "got rid" of the government in a motion of no confidence?
    Indeed - and in so doing the HoC will have got rid of the Cabinet.
    But it can’t do a precision strike. It’s the government or nothing.
    Indeed. And there would need to be a replacement government. Ben seems to be forgetting that Parliament is not an Executive, but a Legislature.
    Not at all. But as well as being a Legislature the HoC has the power effectively to sack the Executive and vote in a new one.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,079

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Unfortunately it wont solve the Irish border as EEA precludes a customs union.
    Only technically speaking. If the EU says it’s happy for us to have SM and CU with four freedoms the EEA aren’t going to block it.
    Yes they are. We cannot be part of the EEA and in the Customs Union.
    We can if the EEA treaty is amended, which it would have to be anyway.
    No because that then has to apply to all the EEA EFTA members.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923
    They are going to be calling for Albert statues to be pulled down....

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jun/12/einsteins-travel-diaries-reveal-shocking-xenophobia
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,069
    edited June 2018
    Kuenssberg seems to have given up any pretence at neutrality re Brexit... "...govt has arguably given away some of the incentive for the EU to do a decent deal in October"
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,079

    Jonathan said:

    PeterC said:

    A pessimistic article on the EEA. It seems that it may not be on offer as an option.

    https://www.ippr.org/blog/britain-is-still-clueless-about-the-eu-s-motives-in-brexit-negotiations

    This is one of the weird things - the whole debate in the UK, including most of the Lords amendments, assumes we can pick any option we like, whether or not the EU wants to play ball. In the case of the EEA it's not even just the EU - it's all the EFTA countries as well (even including Switzerland, because the EFTA treaties would have to be revised).
    Aren't we already in the EEA?
    Quiet, you'll set Richard Tyndall off again.

    (The short answer is No. The slightly longer answer is that we are signatories to the EEA treaty as EU members. The EEA treaty is a treaty between the EU states and the three EFTA states excluding Switzerland, and leaving the EU wouldn't automatically transfer us to the other side of the treaty.)
    No we are signatories to the EEA agreement in our own right. The EU is also a separate signatory.

    When Portugal moved from EFTA to the EU they remained members of the EEA and there was no njew treaty.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,749

    Jonathan said:

    PeterC said:

    A pessimistic article on the EEA. It seems that it may not be on offer as an option.

    https://www.ippr.org/blog/britain-is-still-clueless-about-the-eu-s-motives-in-brexit-negotiations

    This is one of the weird things - the whole debate in the UK, including most of the Lords amendments, assumes we can pick any option we like, whether or not the EU wants to play ball. In the case of the EEA it's not even just the EU - it's all the EFTA countries as well (even including Switzerland, because the EFTA treaties would have to be revised).
    Aren't we already in the EEA?
    Quiet, you'll set Richard Tyndall off again.

    (The short answer is No. The slightly longer answer is that we are signatories to the EEA treaty as EU members. The EEA treaty is a treaty between the EU states and the three EFTA states excluding Switzerland, and leaving the EU wouldn't automatically transfer us to the other side of the treaty.)
    No we are signatories to the EEA agreement in our own right. The EU is also a separate signatory.

    When Portugal moved from EFTA to the EU they remained members of the EEA and there was no njew treaty.
    I thought Portugal joined the EU in 1986, which was before the EEA even existed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,749

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Unfortunately it wont solve the Irish border as EEA precludes a customs union.
    Only technically speaking. If the EU says it’s happy for us to have SM and CU with four freedoms the EEA aren’t going to block it.
    Yes they are. We cannot be part of the EEA and in the Customs Union.
    We can if the EEA treaty is amended, which it would have to be anyway.
    No because that then has to apply to all the EEA EFTA members.
    (From a technical perspective, there are often carve outs in multinational treaties that deal with specific circumstances for particular countries or groups. IIRC, the EEA treaty contains specific exemptions regarding Lapland. So, while it might be highly unlikely, it is theoretically possible that the EEA treaty could be amended and contain specific provisions for us with regard to the customs union. )
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,280

    Kuenssberg seems to have given up any pretence at neutrality re Brexit... "...govt has arguably given away some of the incentive for the EU to do a decent deal in October"
    It’s a point one can argue, no? In fact, we are doing it on here!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Henry viii 320-305
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    As it stands the House does not have the power to negotiate treaties.
    Doesn't the House have the power to mandate a committee (i.e. the Cabinet) to negotiate treaties?
    The cabinet is not a parliamentary committee.
    No, I get that. But it is in effect a committee. My point was that as a last resort the HoC could get rid of the current cabinet and vote confidence in another one which would then do the negotiation. Unlikely, I know but we live in strange times.
    The HoC cannot get rid of the Cabinet. The Cabinet is formed by the PM.
    The HofC could abolish the PM and the Cabinet if it wishes as Parliament is sovereign and that is the basis of our unwritten constitution as Charles 1st found out
    HYFUD and I are agreed - that's a first! :wink:
    First time for everything!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021
    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    PeterC said:

    A pessimistic article on the EEA. It seems that it may not be on offer as an option.

    https://www.ippr.org/blog/britain-is-still-clueless-about-the-eu-s-motives-in-brexit-negotiations

    This is one of the weird things - the whole debate in the UK, including most of the Lords amendments, assumes we can pick any option we like, whether or not the EU wants to play ball. In the case of the EEA it's not even just the EU - it's all the EFTA countries as well (even including Switzerland, because the EFTA treaties would have to be revised).
    Aren't we already in the EEA?
    Quiet, you'll set Richard Tyndall off again.

    (The short answer is No. The slightly longer answer is that we are signatories to the EEA treaty as EU members. The EEA treaty is a treaty between the EU states and the three EFTA states excluding Switzerland, and leaving the EU wouldn't automatically transfer us to the other side of the treaty.)
    No we are signatories to the EEA agreement in our own right. The EU is also a separate signatory.

    When Portugal moved from EFTA to the EU they remained members of the EEA and there was no njew treaty.
    I thought Portugal joined the EU in 1986, which was before the EEA even existed.
    Correct, the single market was officially launched in 1993
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    rcs1000 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Unfortunately it wont solve the Irish border as EEA precludes a customs union.
    Only technically speaking. If the EU says it’s happy for us to have SM and CU with four freedoms the EEA aren’t going to block it.
    Yes they are. We cannot be part of the EEA and in the Customs Union.
    We can if the EEA treaty is amended, which it would have to be anyway.
    No because that then has to apply to all the EEA EFTA members.
    (From a technical perspective, there are often carve outs in multinational treaties that deal with specific circumstances for particular countries or groups. IIRC, the EEA treaty contains specific exemptions regarding Lapland. So, while it might be highly unlikely, it is theoretically possible that the EEA treaty could be amended and contain specific provisions for us with regard to the customs union. )
    Specific exemptions regarding Lapland

    Santa Clause
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,069
    RobD said:

    Kuenssberg seems to have given up any pretence at neutrality re Brexit... "...govt has arguably given away some of the incentive for the EU to do a decent deal in October"
    It’s a point one can argue, no? In fact, we are doing it on here!
    I'm not saying she's lying, just that she's summarising through a Brexiteer lens.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,069
    edited June 2018
    Interesting, if somewhat depressing.

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1006580426289410053


    Make's me wonder whether TMay could have seen off the rebellion without concessions?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021
    edited June 2018
    More Labour rebels voted with the government, 5 plus Hopkins, than the 2 Tory rebels who voted against the government in the government's victory on the first Lords amendment proposing Parliament be given the final say on Brexit if it votes any EU deal down
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44456035
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,749

    rcs1000 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    Unfortunately it wont solve the Irish border as EEA precludes a customs union.
    Only technically speaking. If the EU says it’s happy for us to have SM and CU with four freedoms the EEA aren’t going to block it.
    Yes they are. We cannot be part of the EEA and in the Customs Union.
    We can if the EEA treaty is amended, which it would have to be anyway.
    No because that then has to apply to all the EEA EFTA members.
    (From a technical perspective, there are often carve outs in multinational treaties that deal with specific circumstances for particular countries or groups. IIRC, the EEA treaty contains specific exemptions regarding Lapland. So, while it might be highly unlikely, it is theoretically possible that the EEA treaty could be amended and contain specific provisions for us with regard to the customs union. )
    Specific exemptions regarding Lapland

    Santa Clause
    OK, I checked the agreement, it was actually the Åland Islands and not Lapland.

    Sorry.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I think dinner this evening with mrs lee could be a bit tricky...how was your day darling...well I took a £30k + perks pay cut...why did you do that...matter of principle...and how have you used this new found freedom...I abstained....
    To be fair has his resignation not succeeded?

    Arguably if he'd not announced he was rebelling then the government might not have felt under sufficient pressure to make today's concessions.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,973

    Make's me wonder whether TMay could have seen off the rebellion without concessions?

    Maybe she didn't want to. Her overriding modus operandi is to kick the can, so this manoeuvre is ideal to keep on postponing the day of reckoning.
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