politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Italy: 50 ways to leave the Euro
This is the most recent production from Robert who has been associated with PB right from the start in March 2004 and, indeed, was the person who suggested to me in the first place to establish the site.
It is the one thing that will do for the EU. If Italy goes, so does France. If France goes the whole thing goes.
Merkel, I note, declined to give a ringing assurance that they would step up to help Italy in the event of a similar to Greece event.
I wouldn't hold my breath. If Italy goes then Macron and his ilk would have no intention whatsoever of following them out.
France is the largest holder of Italian debt outside Italy. It wouldn't be a choice and we have heard that the ECB may not be as accommodating as in the recent past.
It is the one thing that will do for the EU. If Italy goes, so does France. If France goes the whole thing goes.
Merkel, I note, declined to give a ringing assurance that they would step up to help Italy in the event of a similar to Greece event.
I wouldn't hold my breath. If Italy goes then Macron and his ilk would have no intention whatsoever of following them out.
France is the largest holder of Italian debt outside Italy. It wouldn't be a choice and we have heard that the ECB may not be as accommodating as in the recent past.
They absolutely would have a choice and the ECB would do anything to prevent France from falling out. The last thing the ECB would want is total collapse, if that takes being more accomodating than they ever have been then of course they will.
It is the one thing that will do for the EU. If Italy goes, so does France. If France goes the whole thing goes.
Merkel, I note, declined to give a ringing assurance that they would step up to help Italy in the event of a similar to Greece event.
I wouldn't hold my breath. If Italy goes then Macron and his ilk would have no intention whatsoever of following them out.
France is the largest holder of Italian debt outside Italy. It wouldn't be a choice and we have heard that the ECB may not be as accommodating as in the recent past.
They absolutely would have a choice and the ECB would do anything to prevent France from falling out. The last thing the ECB would want is total collapse, if that takes being more accomodating than they ever have been then of course they will.
We shall see. We are in to moral hazard territory here, as Merkel's response re Greece/Italy illustrated. They can't say they will bail out but they would have to but Germany (who else?) couldn't bail Italy out, let alone France. Italy's Target2 liabilities are now close to half a trillion Euros.
I think there is a general money crisis on the cards: the emergence of crypto has the potential to circumvent conventional monetary policy, and helicopter money may have created conditions for a supercyclical recession, not just in the Euro but the Dollar (and Sterling, Yen... too). Meanwhile the massive increase in mis-allocated Chinese debt could lead to a best case scenario of the PRC stalled in the middle income trap and at worse a really disorderly unwinding of their entire banking system (although maybe WePay et al is already an alternative currency...). So what with Trumputin promoting a new world disorder we seem to be due a whole load of 1930s style fun and games. So the perfect time for a leadership vacuum in the UK.
Harsh words from a liberal father 'betrayed' by his Tory son.
Mr Mike Smithson finally concedes that he spawned a PB Tory!!!
I think that has been taken out of context. ." Robert who has been associated with PB right from the start in March 2004 and, indeed, was the person who suggested to me in the first place to establish the site."
Harsh words from a liberal father 'betrayed' by his Tory son.
Mr Mike Smithson finally concedes that he spawned a PB Tory!!!
I think that has been taken out of context. ." Robert who has been associated with PB right from the start in March 2004 and, indeed, was the person who suggested to me in the first place to establish the site."
Mike - we went over this this morning. It is the lot of important people for their comments to be taken out of context ("..experts..", "..always sovereign..", "..nasty party..", "..no such thing as society..", etc).
It is the one thing that will do for the EU. If Italy goes, so does France. If France goes the whole thing goes.
Merkel, I note, declined to give a ringing assurance that they would step up to help Italy in the event of a similar to Greece event.
I wouldn't hold my breath. If Italy goes then Macron and his ilk would have no intention whatsoever of following them out.
France is the largest holder of Italian debt outside Italy. It wouldn't be a choice and we have heard that the ECB may not be as accommodating as in the recent past.
They absolutely would have a choice and the ECB would do anything to prevent France from falling out. The last thing the ECB would want is total collapse, if that takes being more accomodating than they ever have been then of course they will.
We shall see. We are in to moral hazard territory here, as Merkel's response re Greece/Italy illustrated. They can't say they will bail out but they would have to but Germany (who else?) couldn't bail Italy out, let alone France. Italy's Target2 liabilities are now close to half a trillion Euros.
Its remarkable how much moral hazard can be ignored when backs are against the wall and its a potential "game over" time otherwise. Desperation trumps principles at a time like that.
It is the one thing that will do for the EU. If Italy goes, so does France. If France goes the whole thing goes.
Merkel, I note, declined to give a ringing assurance that they would step up to help Italy in the event of a similar to Greece event.
I wouldn't hold my breath. If Italy goes then Macron and his ilk would have no intention whatsoever of following them out.
France is the largest holder of Italian debt outside Italy. It wouldn't be a choice and we have heard that the ECB may not be as accommodating as in the recent past.
They absolutely would have a choice and the ECB would do anything to prevent France from falling out. The last thing the ECB would want is total collapse, if that takes being more accomodating than they ever have been then of course they will.
We shall see. We are in to moral hazard territory here, as Merkel's response re Greece/Italy illustrated. They can't say they will bail out but they would have to but Germany (who else?) couldn't bail Italy out, let alone France. Italy's Target2 liabilities are now close to half a trillion Euros.
Its remarkable how much moral hazard can be ignored when backs are against the wall and its a potential "game over" time otherwise. Desperation trumps principles at a time like that.
Harsh words from a liberal father 'betrayed' by his Tory son.
Mr Mike Smithson finally concedes that he spawned a PB Tory!!!
I think that has been taken out of context. ." Robert who has been associated with PB right from the start in March 2004 and, indeed, was the person who suggested to me in the first place to establish the site."
Their website says votes start at 16:15. After that they will have the debate on the Northern Ireland amendments, with the vote on these starting at 19:45.
Mr. Mule, let's not forget the Austrian presidential election, whereby (on the first run) the ex-Green won by a tiny margin against the sceptical far right chap, only for 'voting irregularities' (turnout exceeding 100% in some places) emerged. The subsequent second run was delayed due to adhesive issues with the envelopes. In the end the ex-Green did end up winning but the road there was not a shining beacon of loveliness.
Mr. Mule, let's not forget the Austrian presidential election, whereby (on the first run) the ex-Green won by a tiny margin against the sceptical far right chap, only for 'voting irregularities' (turnout exceeding 100% in some places) emerged. The subsequent second run was delayed due to adhesive issues with the envelopes. In the end the ex-Green did end up winning but the road there was not a shining beacon of loveliness.
Comments
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1006521476026126336
Harsh words from a liberal father 'betrayed' by his Tory son.
Main lesson for me: never ever join the Euro. There is almost no way out.
It is the one thing that will do for the EU. If Italy goes, so does France. If France goes the whole thing goes.
Merkel, I note, declined to give a ringing assurance that they would step up to help Italy in the event of a similar to Greece event.
Eurosceptics missing: R Campbell, Stringer, Hopkins (s)
(But there isn't an Italian alive who would have the Lira back!)
Not watched the video yet (I shall presently) but if there's no Quitaly pun I shall be mildly disappointed.
Edited extra bit: CE?!?!
Mr. 1000, I do like you, but historical revisionist PC acronym abominations do make it difficult.
Honestly.
Meanwhile the title reminds me of this...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABXtWqmArUU
Anyway, watched the video. Informative and entertaining. And CE remains the dating system preferred by Satanic revisionists.
"We recommend a buy on canned food and shotguns".
You are part of an august group.
Wonder who it could be?
From recent reports Antoinette Sandbach's Brexit stance hasn't been going down very well with her constituents...
The compromise amendment was that done by Letwin surely?
An odd thing to report to the police.
We know how she will vote.
Looks like Government will win on the back of Labour Leavers
what else could he be doing?
We are down to 3 mins on speeches now.
I think the Gov't will lose the vote and the price should head out toward even money or so.
After that they will have the debate on the Northern Ireland amendments, with the vote on these starting at 19:45.
https://fantasy.fifa.com/en/home
Brexiteers won't dare let Theresa May be the one going to the country though... They'll have to get rid of her, install Boris and hope for the best.
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