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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Italy: 50 ways to leave the Euro

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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Easy win for Government Methinks if people like Woolaston have caved. Circa 30 Majority.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Very very unlikely to be true as stated.
    Agreed. Isn’t 3x2 SOP for 24 cover?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Tory 'rebels'. A load of piss and wind.

    And whatshisface resigned over it - heart of stone etc.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Tory 'rebels'. A load of piss and wind.

    The government has done everything to appear to cave in without actually caving in. This simply delays the reckoning. 9 months, 17 days to go...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,079
    Pulpstar said:

    I know he isn't liked by the Brexiteers, but having Bercow as the speaker is effectively another vote for the Gov't on european matters.

    Is it? I would have thought he may well vote to give more powers to MPs since it is them he is supposed to be representing.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    "We've heard a lot about the will of the people" and he says "this is the only reason the government can deploy for supporting a Brexit". - Tom Brake, Liberal Democrat exiting the EU spokesperson

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,549
    Pity the rest of us now have no idea what the government's position is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021
    edited June 2018
    Frank Field makes clear he will back the government and vote down the Lords amendments . Graham Stringer and Gavin Strang and Kate Hoey expected to join him from the Labour benches giving an extra net +8 to the Government and DUP side
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171


    "We've heard a lot about the will of the people" and he says "this is the only reason the government can deploy for supporting a Brexit". - Tom Brake, Liberal Democrat exiting the EU spokesperson

    I laughed out loud when I read what he said, no wonder the Lib Dems are below 10% in the polls
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,547
    Scott_P said:
    No chance in a million years they will have a deal by November. So Parliament will decide.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,969
    Scott_P said:
    A deal needs to be agreed by then to fit in with the existing timetable doesn't it pretty much ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,278
    Mr. Borough, that's not really 'buying off' so much as 'capitulating utterly'.

    Mr. P, if Newton Dunn's tweet is correct, it's in the EU's interest to not even seek an agreement by the end of November so the Commons can direct the Government to just roll over.

    Marvellous.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Pity the rest of us now have no idea what the government's position is.
    To be fair, we don't know what the Opposition's or Lords' position is either. It seems to be something along the lines of a meaningful vote on a meaningless proposition, but who knows?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,280
    Government must be reasonably confident of a deal then...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,136
    Scott_P said:
    Hooray for a sovereign parliament.

    I reckon this means we will ask for an extension of Article 50.

    I was so wrong about Theresa, she’s awesome.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    A deal needs to be agreed by then to fit in with the existing timetable doesn't it pretty much ?
    Surely the EU will just block everything up till then..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,547
    RobD said:

    Government must be reasonably confident of a deal then...
    That is one of the funniest comments ever posted on this site!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,973

    No chance in a million years they will have a deal by November. So Parliament will decide.

    By then the momentum behind a second referendum will be very strong.

    A winter of Brexit discontent, followed by a referendum to consign it to history, and then we'll vote in the European elections to send Farage packing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021

    Scott_P said:
    No chance in a million years they will have a deal by November. So Parliament will decide.
    The Commons is about to vote to leave the EEA and the Customs Union it seems
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,280

    RobD said:

    Government must be reasonably confident of a deal then...
    That is one of the funniest comments ever posted on this site!
    I try :p
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:

    I reckon this means we will ask for an extension of Article 50.

    There aint the votes for that..
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,078
    edited June 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Wow - almost certainly there will be no deal. Election early in the new year?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,973

    No chance in a million years they will have a deal by November. So Parliament will decide.

    By then the momentum behind a second referendum will be very strong.

    A winter of Brexit discontent, followed by a referendum to consign it to history, and then we'll vote in the European elections to send Farage packing.
    (However I still think May will preempt this and be the one to decide to go to the country with the deal versus Remain.)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,538
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Very very unlikely to be true as stated.
    Agreed. Isn’t 3x2 SOP for 24 cover?
    She gave the impression that the MP was surrounded by six protection offices forming a Roman phalanx..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021

    No chance in a million years they will have a deal by November. So Parliament will decide.

    By then the momentum behind a second referendum will be very strong.

    A winter of Brexit discontent, followed by a referendum to consign it to history, and then we'll vote in the European elections to send Farage packing.
    A winter of Brexit Discontent would only occur if Parliament flung back the Brexit vote in Leave voters faces
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,079

    No chance in a million years they will have a deal by November. So Parliament will decide.

    By then the momentum behind a second referendum will be very strong.

    A winter of Brexit discontent, followed by a referendum to consign it to history, and then we'll vote in the European elections to send Farage packing.
    You really really don't understand the electorate do you.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    No chance in a million years they will have a deal by November. So Parliament will decide.
    The Commons is about to vote to leave the EEA and the Customs Union it seems
    Perfect opportunity for Labour to switch to pro EEA (with a figleaf on free movement).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    How are the EU going to cover the £39Bn hole in their accounts if no deal ?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021
    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow - almost certainly there will be no deal. Election early in the new year?
    Which would solve zilch and on current polling produce almost exactly the same composition in the Commons
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Mr. Borough, that's not really 'buying off' so much as 'capitulating utterly'.

    Mr. P, if Newton Dunn's tweet is correct, it's in the EU's interest to not even seek an agreement by the end of November so the Commons can direct the Government to just roll over.

    Marvellous.

    Indeed that is brilliant work by Theresa May.

    You have to hand it to her.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,969
    So after November what happens ?
    Barnier arrives and starts negotiating with 643 MPs in the commons ?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    A deal needs to be agreed by then to fit in with the existing timetable doesn't it pretty much ?

    The EU will just spend all autumn drinking vintage champagne and procrastinating.

    (Do your own punchline...)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,549
    So if (big if) there is a deal by the end of November, Parliament don't get a vote on it?

    Otherwise it looks like DD goes on a long winter holiday and Hilary Benn is in charge of negotiations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021
    edited June 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    So after November what happens ?
    Barnier arrives and starts negotiating with 643 MPs in the commons ?

    The European Parliament negotiates directly with Westminster, long boozy weekends in Brussels, Strasbourg and Central London in 5* hotels at taxpayer expense to ensure a deal?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,633
    Scott_P said:
    They'll have to be a new general election by then...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,079

    No chance in a million years they will have a deal by November. So Parliament will decide.

    By then the momentum behind a second referendum will be very strong.

    A winter of Brexit discontent, followed by a referendum to consign it to history, and then we'll vote in the European elections to send Farage packing.
    (However I still think May will preempt this and be the one to decide to go to the country with the deal versus Remain.)
    She will never get the chance to do that. If the option of Remain did appear she would be gone long before she could call a vote.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,973

    No chance in a million years they will have a deal by November. So Parliament will decide.

    By then the momentum behind a second referendum will be very strong.

    A winter of Brexit discontent, followed by a referendum to consign it to history, and then we'll vote in the European elections to send Farage packing.
    You really really don't understand the electorate do you.
    Perhaps 500 words from you explaining the 2001 General Election result would help me understand.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Mr. Borough, that's not really 'buying off' so much as 'capitulating utterly'.

    Mr. P, if Newton Dunn's tweet is correct, it's in the EU's interest to not even seek an agreement by the end of November so the Commons can direct the Government to just roll over.

    Marvellous.

    I don't think that's right. It's probably easier for the EU to negotiate with the PM and her divided cabinet then it would be to negotiate with a divided House of Commons. And I think the EU want this settled and dealt with so that they can get on with creating a banking and fiscal union.

    So what this does is to establish a hard deadline for the EU. Give us a deal we can agree to by the end of November, or you have to try and negotiate with >600 MPs. (And good luck doing that)
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    What are the odds of a deal before November?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    No chance in a million years they will have a deal by November. So Parliament will decide.
    The Commons is about to vote to leave the EEA and the Customs Union it seems
    Perfect opportunity for Labour to switch to pro EEA (with a figleaf on free movement).
    Which is clearly going to happen over Corbyn's dead body while he leads the party!
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Sounds like Brexit moves a step closer, those seeking to overturn the referendum result now need to take the hint
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,067
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Very very unlikely to be true as stated.
    Agreed. Isn’t 3x2 SOP for 24 cover?
    She gave the impression that the MP was surrounded by six protection offices forming a Roman phalanx..
    A modern day Contubernium, surely.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,079

    No chance in a million years they will have a deal by November. So Parliament will decide.

    By then the momentum behind a second referendum will be very strong.

    A winter of Brexit discontent, followed by a referendum to consign it to history, and then we'll vote in the European elections to send Farage packing.
    You really really don't understand the electorate do you.
    Perhaps 500 words from you explaining the 2001 General Election result would help me understand.
    Nah. You still wouldnt understand.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,172
    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Frank Field makes clear he will back the government and vote down the Lords amendments . Graham Stringer and Gavin Strang and Kate Hoey expected to join him from the Labour benches giving an extra net +8 to the Government and DUP side

    Gavin Strang retired from the Commons years ago!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,969
    I think Brexit still goes ahead on time but in terms of betting on it I've withdrawn my stake. I'm happy enough with my position.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,069
    TGOHF said:

    How are the EU going to cover the £39Bn hole in their accounts if no deal ?

    Tariffs on imports from the UK?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,999
    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow - almost certainly there will be no deal. Election early in the new year?
    Which would solve zilch and on current polling produce almost exactly the same composition in the Commons
    ... whereas a new referendum would.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,136
    Pulpstar said:

    So after November what happens ?
    Barnier arrives and starts negotiating with 643 MPs in the commons ?

    Parliament creates a Committee of Safety to negotiate with Barnier.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,408
    edited June 2018

    TGOHF said:

    How are the EU going to cover the £39Bn hole in their accounts if no deal ?

    Tariffs on imports from the UK?
    You mean tariffs on the world.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,969

    Pulpstar said:

    So after November what happens ?
    Barnier arrives and starts negotiating with 643 MPs in the commons ?

    Parliament creates a Committee of Safety to negotiate with Barnier.
    I take it you are lumped on "No deal by 29th" with these views ?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    Thats my reading of it
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,538
    edited June 2018
    sarissa said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Very very unlikely to be true as stated.
    Agreed. Isn’t 3x2 SOP for 24 cover?
    She gave the impression that the MP was surrounded by six protection offices forming a Roman phalanx..
    A modern day Contubernium, surely.
    *pause*

    *google*

    yes...yes that is exactly what I meant!

    :smile:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021
    edited June 2018
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Frank Field makes clear he will back the government and vote down the Lords amendments . Graham Stringer and Gavin Strang and Kate Hoey expected to join him from the Labour benches giving an extra net +8 to the Government and DUP side

    Gavin Strang retired from the Commons years ago!
    Apologies, meant Gareth Snell the new Stoke Central MP
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    TGOHF said:

    How are the EU going to cover the £39Bn hole in their accounts if no deal ?

    Tariffs on imports from the UK?

    We import more than we export to the EU, so they'll lose that game.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,375
    Give them a hard deadline and you might get progress in the last twenty four hours.

    Giving powers to parliament will only result in snail pace if any progress. The only hope Remainers have is to bore everyone for at least another three years and hope for a change of mind of the electorate sufficient to cover up their dismissal of a democratic result.

    The LDs still wouldn't have an alibi, but they could always go back to being just the Liberal party.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Frank Field makes clear he will back the government and vote down the Lords amendments . Graham Stringer and Gavin Strang and Kate Hoey expected to join him from the Labour benches giving an extra net +8 to the Government and DUP side

    Gavin Strang retired from the Commons years ago!
    Apologies, meant Gareth Snell the new Stoke MP
    I think he is a Remainer. Perhaps you mean Graham Stringer?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,633
    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means.

    Do the EU understand that though? I reckon the EU will now just dig there heels in (even more) thinking that this will be took out of the governments hands in November...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Sky News completely miss vote 2
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,569
    edited June 2018
    That is a big concession by the Government - if it really really comes to it, I think the only thing parliament could usefully do would be to vote for EEA membership (EDIT - or ask for an article 50 extension as TSE says, but I think the EU would say no and force us into EEA) and this concession stops the Government from preventing this being voted on. So Labour have months to continue their current drift to soft Brexit. And probably topple Theresa May in the process.

    Not sure this will change much from the EU's perspective - I don't buy this idea that they will suddenly play hardball with us. They've been doing that for months, and flit between bemused and frustrated that we can't even present our position on key issues that should have been dealt with ahead of the referendum let alone the A50 trigger. Hard to imagine that anything today changes their thinking, that they have us in a vice-like grip.

    What really changes today, is that the Government get to blame parliament, and that might actually be quite useful for them.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,136
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So after November what happens ?
    Barnier arrives and starts negotiating with 643 MPs in the commons ?

    Parliament creates a Committee of Safety to negotiate with Barnier.
    I take it you are lumped on "No deal by 29th" with these views ?
    I'm trying to get Shadsy to open up on a market on the UK asking for an extension of Article 50.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow - almost certainly there will be no deal. Election early in the new year?
    Which would solve zilch and on current polling produce almost exactly the same composition in the Commons
    ... whereas a new referendum would.
    Solve zilch too, the last gold Standard Survation had it Leave 50% Remain 50%.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,640

    TGOHF said:

    How are the EU going to cover the £39Bn hole in their accounts if no deal ?

    Tariffs on imports from the UK?
    We only export £150bn worth of goods to the EU, the average tariff rate is about 3% for the EU and that gets charged to EU companies doing the importing, not the UK company doing the exporting.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means.

    Do the EU understand that though? I reckon the EU will now just dig there heels in (even more) thinking that this will be took out of the governments hands in November...
    And into the hands of Rees-Mogg etc, no chance of that, I think the chances of a deal being done are so much higher now.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Chances of No Deal Brexit have just dropped sharply. If Parliament is going to get control of negotiations if no deal has been done by the end of November, then the majority in Parliament who favour a deal is going to get one of one form or another.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,278
    In the earliest period of Roman history, I believe they did pretty much just have a phalanx. Obviously the legionary approach is better known.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Frank Field makes clear he will back the government and vote down the Lords amendments . Graham Stringer and Gavin Strang and Kate Hoey expected to join him from the Labour benches giving an extra net +8 to the Government and DUP side

    Gavin Strang retired from the Commons years ago!
    Apologies, meant Gareth Snell the new Stoke MP
    I think he is a Remainer. Perhaps you mean Graham Stringer?
    Stringer and Snell will vote with the Government apparently is the latest

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BrexitBin/status/1006525448996687872
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,375
    Mr Currystar,


    "I think the chances of a deal being done are so much higher now."

    You could be right. It will concentrate the minds of the negotiators. The alternative is several years of uncertainty which no one wants.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    I know he isn't liked by the Brexiteers, but having Bercow as the speaker is effectively another vote for the Gov't on european matters.

    Sort of though if he wasn't Speaker anymore then his first action after resigning is probably taking the Chiltern Hundreds anyway at which point the resulting by-election cancels that out.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,749
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow - almost certainly there will be no deal. Election early in the new year?
    Which would solve zilch and on current polling produce almost exactly the same composition in the Commons
    ... whereas a new referendum would.
    Solve zilch too, the last gold Standard Survation had it Leave 50% Remain 50%.
    Coin toss to settle it?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    CD13 said:

    Mr Currystar,


    "I think the chances of a deal being done are so much higher now."

    You could be right. It will concentrate the minds of the negotiators. The alternative is several years of uncertainty which no one wants.

    I think it is a very clever move, the EU will be desperate for a deal now, they will not want the alternative.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021
    edited June 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow - almost certainly there will be no deal. Election early in the new year?
    Which would solve zilch and on current polling produce almost exactly the same composition in the Commons
    ... whereas a new referendum would.
    Solve zilch too, the last gold Standard Survation had it Leave 50% Remain 50%.
    Coin toss to settle it?
    Or a second civil war? Remainers Cavaliers and Brexiteers Roundheads?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,538
    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923
    An armed man claiming to have a bomb has taken three people including a pregnant woman hostage in Paris.

    Anti-terrorist police are surrounding the Mixicom computer store in the French capital's 10th arrondissement, close to the Gare du Nord Eurostar hub.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,549
    Anticlimax, as expected.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,078
    Once again, the Tory party has put it's own interest over the national interest - they do it every single time!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,640
    currystar said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Currystar,


    "I think the chances of a deal being done are so much higher now."

    You could be right. It will concentrate the minds of the negotiators. The alternative is several years of uncertainty which no one wants.

    I think it is a very clever move, the EU will be desperate for a deal now, they will not want the alternative.
    Will they? Parliament is full to the brim with the worst kind of remainer, the longer they drag it out the more chance that Parliament will take any kind of shite deal. The EU just got a huge win, our MPs are working to strengthen the hand of our enemy. It's absolutely disgraceful.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow - almost certainly there will be no deal. Election early in the new year?
    Which would solve zilch and on current polling produce almost exactly the same composition in the Commons
    ... whereas a new referendum would.
    Solve zilch too, the last gold Standard Survation had it Leave 50% Remain 50%.
    Coin toss to settle it?
    Or a second civil war? Remainers Cavaliers and Brexiteers Roundheads?

    Probably wrong way around; Cavaliers became the Conservatives, and more of those are Brexiters.

  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483

    Chances of No Deal Brexit have just dropped sharply. If Parliament is going to get control of negotiations if no deal has been done by the end of November, then the majority in Parliament who favour a deal is going to get one of one form or another.

    EU have said that deal will have to be done by end of October to allow time to get them all to agree and vote in EU Parliament.
    Government is handing Parliament the cliff edge.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,375
    Mr Topping.

    I suspect Keir Starmer will agree with you, but the chances of everyone forgetting about the 'i' word are approximately nil.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    MaxPB said:

    currystar said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Currystar,


    "I think the chances of a deal being done are so much higher now."

    You could be right. It will concentrate the minds of the negotiators. The alternative is several years of uncertainty which no one wants.

    I think it is a very clever move, the EU will be desperate for a deal now, they will not want the alternative.
    Will they? Parliament is full to the brim with the worst kind of remainer, the longer they drag it out the more chance that Parliament will take any kind of shite deal. The EU just got a huge win, our MPs are working to strengthen the hand of our enemy. It's absolutely disgraceful.
    A general election in November might solve a lot of problems
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021
    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    No we won't as both May and Corbyn still oppose EEA
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    MaxPB said:

    currystar said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Currystar,


    "I think the chances of a deal being done are so much higher now."

    You could be right. It will concentrate the minds of the negotiators. The alternative is several years of uncertainty which no one wants.

    I think it is a very clever move, the EU will be desperate for a deal now, they will not want the alternative.
    Will they? Parliament is full to the brim with the worst kind of remainer, the longer they drag it out the more chance that Parliament will take any kind of shite deal. The EU just got a huge win, our MPs are working to strengthen the hand of our enemy. It's absolutely disgraceful.
    There is no way that will happen, the press coverage of any MP doing what they can to block Brexit will just be too awful for any MP to risk it. I voted Remain but democracy must prevail.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,538
    edited June 2018
    CD13 said:

    Mr Topping.

    I suspect Keir Starmer will agree with you, but the chances of everyone forgetting about the 'i' word are approximately nil.

    I'm sure they'll call it something obfuscating.

    Who knows, they might even just use the existing controls available to any EU member, tell the general public that the country has left, and carry on as full EU members.

    No one would notice.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,552
    Great video - would recommend it highly to those who haven't yet seen it.
    Jokes were funny too!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    DeClare said:

    Chances of No Deal Brexit have just dropped sharply. If Parliament is going to get control of negotiations if no deal has been done by the end of November, then the majority in Parliament who favour a deal is going to get one of one form or another.

    EU have said that deal will have to be done by end of October to allow time to get them all to agree and vote in EU Parliament.
    Government is handing Parliament the cliff edge.

    We thought we had to next March. Now we only have till this October.

    Great. Just great.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,021
    edited June 2018

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow - almost certainly there will be no deal. Election early in the new year?
    Which would solve zilch and on current polling produce almost exactly the same composition in the Commons
    ... whereas a new referendum would.
    Solve zilch too, the last gold Standard Survation had it Leave 50% Remain 50%.
    Coin toss to settle it?
    Or a second civil war? Remainers Cavaliers and Brexiteers Roundheads?

    Probably wrong way around; Cavaliers became the Conservatives, and more of those are Brexiters.

    The Tory or Whig Parties were not founded until after the Civil War and the poshest Tories were more likely to be Remainers while working and lower middle class Labour voters were more likely to be Leavers
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    When Grieve was interviewed this morning he said his amendment referred to a cut-off date of 15 February.

    Is it clear precisely what Govt has agreed to re 30 November cut-off - I doubt Govt has gone further than what Grieve was proposing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,172

    Mortimer said:

    Parliament can't negotiate a treaty - practically, constitutionally, it is impossible. They don't have the powers or the means. Means that Govt. are assured of a deal by November.

    I don't think you are right there. The house can resolve itself into a committee and do just about anything.
    It wouldn’t have control over departments of government. It wouldn’t be able to speak on behalf of the crown. Therefore it is unable to negotiate with a foreign power.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,538
    edited June 2018
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    No we won't as both May and Corbyn still oppose EEA
    We are in a very strange place now, @HYUFD so I would hesitate to rule anything out categorically. Especially, as has been demonstrated today, as parliament is not particularly minded to listen to their leaders on either side.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,225
    edited June 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wow - almost certainly there will be no deal. Election early in the new year?
    Which would solve zilch and on current polling produce almost exactly the same composition in the Commons
    ... whereas a new referendum would.
    Solve zilch too, the last gold Standard Survation had it Leave 50% Remain 50%.
    Coin toss to settle it?
    Or a second civil war? Remainers Cavaliers and Brexiteers Roundheads?

    Probably wrong way around; Cavaliers became the Conservatives, and more of those are Brexiters.

    The Tory or Whig Parties were not founded until after the Civil War and the poshest Tories were more likely to be Remainers while working and lower middle class Labour voters were more likely to be Leavers
    Their origins were much older. And it’s the irreconcialability which is important.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Looks like we will get EEA which will solve all kinds of problems, just about unite the country (not to say PB), avoid any issues in Ireland (where the compromise of EEA is far better and likelier than any kind of border fudge) and we can then move on.

    Poorer, obvs, but free of much of the laws of the EU so many Leavers will be happy as they don't seem overly worried about the well being of their fellow Leavers for whom a vote to Leave was one to make themselves better off but hey, no biggie.

    Just as long as no one mentions immigration.

    No we won't as both May and Corbyn still oppose EEA
    We are in a very strange place now, @HYUFD so I would hesitate to rule anything out categorically. Especially, as has been demonstrated today, as parliament is not particularly minded to listen to their leaders on either side.
    And that is why the EU will agree a deal
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,633
    currystar said:

    MaxPB said:

    currystar said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Currystar,


    "I think the chances of a deal being done are so much higher now."

    You could be right. It will concentrate the minds of the negotiators. The alternative is several years of uncertainty which no one wants.

    I think it is a very clever move, the EU will be desperate for a deal now, they will not want the alternative.
    Will they? Parliament is full to the brim with the worst kind of remainer, the longer they drag it out the more chance that Parliament will take any kind of shite deal. The EU just got a huge win, our MPs are working to strengthen the hand of our enemy. It's absolutely disgraceful.
    There is no way that will happen, the press coverage of any MP doing what they can to block Brexit will just be too awful for any MP to risk it.
    You really think they care? :D
This discussion has been closed.