Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position.
And, ultimately, it's Mrs May who needs to carry the can for this. Dull competence only works when there is actual competence. Simply not being Jeremy Corbyn - which is all that's keeping the Conservatives at 40% - is not enough.
"It is now that I am expecting those surviving UKIP supporters to declare “Now come on, all parties have problems fielding candidates in the year after a general!”"
Are there any UKIP supporters left on here? I thought the whole point was that UKIP having served its purpose is now pointless (unless the Government really is dumb enough to listen to the Remoaners and scrap Brexit).
Cancelling Brexit would be political suicide for the Conservatives, Corbyn would get a big majority.
Economic meltdown no-deal Brexit would be political suicide for the Conservatives, Corbyn [etc]
Parties have no inherent right to exist and I would not be sorry to see the Tory party collapse.
It wouldn't change the fact that there would still be something around at least 50% of the country wanting to vote for right or centre right candidates. The collapse of the Tory party would be no more of a victory for the Left than the Collapse of Labour would be for the Right.
What we lack in this country now is an economically Right wing, small state but very socially liberal party.
May I point you to the UK Libertarian Party who are also standing in next week's Lewisham East by election
Oh yes I am well aware of them and have been following them. If you are looking at the minute parties you can find one to fit any view. I was talking more in terms of parties likely to get into the top ten places on national vote.
In the US Gary Johnson got about 3% in 2016 on the Libertarian ticket and came third and in Germany the Libertarian FDP got about 10% in 2017
I am not clear on the FDP policy positions but certainly UK Libertarianism is a very long way from the US version. The most obvious difference is regarding religion which lays no part in the basic philosophy of UK Libertarianism but which seems, from a distance, to be fundamental to much of the US version.
Of course the big difference is with regard to where the power is supposed to lie. In the US much of the Libertarian - Tea Party movement believes that state power should lie with the States. But this often seems to be because they think that those States will then follow policies which we would consider very un-libertarian and illiberal. In the UK the idea is that the power should rest with the individual.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position.
And, ultimately, it's Mrs May who needs to carry the can for this. Dull competence only works when there is actual competence. Simply not being Jeremy Corbyn - which is all that's keeping the Conservatives at 40% - is not enough.
The problem is - who follows her?
Given the way things are going, Corbyn (probably). God help us all.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
"It is now that I am expecting those surviving UKIP supporters to declare “Now come on, all parties have problems fielding candidates in the year after a general!”"
Are there any UKIP supporters left on here? I thought the whole point was that UKIP having served its purpose is now pointless (unless the Government really is dumb enough to listen to the Remoaners and scrap Brexit).
Cancelling Brexit would be political suicide for the Conservatives, Corbyn would get a big majority.
Economic meltdown no-deal Brexit would be political suicide for the Conservatives, Corbyn [etc]
Parties have no inherent right to exist and I would not be sorry to see the Tory party collapse.
It wouldn't change the fact that there would still be something around economically Right wing, small state but very socially liberal party.
May I point you to the UK Libertarian Party who are also standing in next week's Lewisham East by election
The problem is that while libertarianism punches above its weight intellectually, it has very little mass appeal.
Indeed, the biggest libertarian demographic is rich single white males living in London with no family ties and little need of public services and there are not enough of those to get much beyond 10%
Um no.
With the exception of one notable but unfortunately now deceased leader who was gay and lived with his partner, every single person I know in the Libertarian Alliance fails to meet that description. A tiny minority of them live in London, the overwhelming majority are married with kids and a significant number are female or from ethnic minorities. The two most vocal proponents on here - Robert and myself - are both married with kids and neither of us live anywhere near London.
I do however accept that libertarianism even in its strongly secular UK form is a very minority view. However a less radical form as I described - smaller state, socially very liberal but economically dry - is certainly, I believe, a position that a party could gain support for.
Both you and certainly Robert are reasonably well off and certainly socially liberal. Robert lives in California I believe which had long had a libertarian tradition.
If you regularly use the NHS, rely on benefits and social housing or have traditional religious views of the family you are clearly not very likely to be a libertarian
"It is now that I am expecting those surviving UKIP supporters to declare “Now come on, all parties have problems fielding candidates in the year after a general!”"
Are there any UKIP supporters left on here? I thought the whole point was that UKIP having served its purpose is now pointless (unless the Government really is dumb enough to listen to the Remoaners and scrap Brexit).
Cancelling Brexit would be political suicide for the Conservatives, Corbyn would get a big majority.
Economic meltdown no-deal Brexit would be political suicide for the Conservatives, Corbyn [etc]
Parties have no inherent right to exist and I would not be sorry to see the Tory party collapse.
It wouldn't change the fact that there would still ically Right wing, small state but very socially liberal party.
May I point you to the UK Libertarian Party who are also standing in next week's Lewisham East by election
Oh yes I am well aware of them and have been following them. If you are looking at the minute parties you can find one to fit any view. I was talking more in terms of parties likely to get into the top ten places on national vote.
In the US Gary Johnson got about 3% in 2016 on the Libertarian ticket and came third and in Germany the Libertarian FDP got about 10% in 2017
I am not clear on the FDP policy positions but certainly UK Libertarianism is a very long way from the US version. The most obvious difference is regarding religion which lays no part in the basic philosophy of UK Libertarianism but which seems, from a distance, to be fundamental to much of the US version.
Of course the big difference is with regard to where the power is supposed to lie. In the US much of the Libertarian - Tea Party movement believes that state power should lie with the States. But this often seems to be because they think that those States will then follow policies which we would consider very un-libertarian and illiberal. In the UK the idea is that the power should rest with the individual.
US Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson supported gay marriage, abortion and legal marijuana so certainly did not run on a religious platform.
The Tea Party was part of the conservative Republican Party not the Libertarian Party
I can imagine her having an hour long meltdown trying to decide whether she wants tea or coffee with her breakfast... Before ultimately choosing orange juice.
'Mrs May, what is your ideal breakfast?'
'I enjoy all kinds of breakfast. I have breakfast every day. However, at a time like this we should be thinking of those who have no breakfast. The suffering of hunger is what gets me out of bed in the morning.'
'I have been very clear that breakfast means breakfast.'
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position.
And, ultimately, it's Mrs May who needs to carry the can for this. Dull competence only works when there is actual competence. Simply not being Jeremy Corbyn - which is all that's keeping the Conservatives at 40% - is not enough.
The problem is - who follows her?
As I said I think it's Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor. Whether they will be better is unknown, though I don't think they can be any worse.
You are correct that having a fallback position would have made a deal easier to achieve, the EU would be spending its own political capital to keep us in its circle of influence given that we'd have an alternative path. Because we have nowhere else to go they know we will stay in the customs union at an extremely high political and economic cost.
Additionally planning for WTO Brexit and having a clear no deal plan laid out would also help business investment. At the very least companies would know what the worse case scenario was and base decisions on that.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
I'm not convinced that lying about being prepared (the Trump strategy) would be a better solution.
I can imagine her having an hour long meltdown trying to decide whether she wants tea or coffee with her breakfast... Before ultimately choosing orange juice.
'Mrs May, what is your ideal breakfast?'
'I enjoy all kinds of breakfast. I have breakfast every day. However, at a time like this we should be thinking of those who have no breakfast. The suffering of hunger is what gets me out of bed in the morning.'
'I have been very clear that breakfast means breakfast.'
"I'm going to make sure we all get red, white and blue breakfasts"
I can imagine her having an hour long meltdown trying to decide whether she wants tea or coffee with her breakfast... Before ultimately choosing orange juice.
'Mrs May, what is your ideal breakfast?'
'I enjoy all kinds of breakfast. I have breakfast every day. However, at a time like this we should be thinking of those who have no breakfast. The suffering of hunger is what gets me out of bed in the morning.'
'I have been very clear that breakfast means breakfast.'
"I'm going to make sure we all get red, white and blue breakfasts"
'Although, to avoid disruption we are going to delay breakfast for a couple of years and if we can't work out how to cook breakfast the backstop position will be no breakfast.'
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position.
And, ultimately, it's Mrs May who needs to carry the can for this. Dull competence only works when there is actual competence. Simply not being Jeremy Corbyn - which is all that's keeping the Conservatives at 40% - is not enough.
The problem is - who follows her?
Benjamin Franklin: By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.
For someone who was supposed to be competent as her strong point, May has been anything but.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
I'm not convinced that lying about being prepared (the Trump strategy) would be a better solution.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
I'm not convinced that lying about being prepared (the Trump strategy) would be a better solution.
I don't think Geoff or anyone else is suggesting we should lie about it. But even now a resigned acceptance that we will not be getting an agreement and starting to take action to prepare for that would be better than the blind hope (what of I am not sure) that May seems to be relying upon.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position.
And, ultimately, it's Mrs May who needs to carry the can for this. Dull competence only works when there is actual competence. Simply not being Jeremy Corbyn - which is all that's keeping the Conservatives at 40% - is not enough.
The problem is - who follows her?
Javid is the new favourite who is basically a BAME May with a slightly looser line on allowing in skilled workers but if either Boris or Mogg get to the membership they would probably win and straight to WTO terms Brexit we would go.
Even if Corbyn won in 2022 he would just be pretty much hard Brexit plus socialism
Something absolutely remarkable in the YouGov polling from today. These are figures for those in social grade C2DE (January numbers in brackets): CON 48% (35% in January) LAB 37% (46% in January) Eleven-point swing to the Tories from Labour since January."
It is a very sweet story, but it does rather make a mockery of the fact no Premier league refs (who are full time and ref one of the top leagues in the world) are going to the World Cup.
Is this we should have invested in customs posts a bit of a red herring? Currently we have to inspect certain goods like food according to EU law and they state that 50% of all Chicken shipments from outside the EU must be checked and 25% of beef. But out of the EU we could decide that we check 2% or 5% or whatever amount of the imports we have the BIP's to check, at least initially. Then we all know there is no chance of Dover being upgraded, no space so I do not believe that UK businesses and EU businesses are stupid and will continue to send their lorries into a port that they have been told will be huge delays. So provide them with other ports, where is the capacity, Felixstowe is currently having a large upgrade ready early 2018 (how convenient), route the Dover traffic to Rotterdam if the cargo can handle a extra day in transit. They must be spare capacity at UK ports to take the Dover traffic. Then there is the new computer system, there are enough IT experts on here to say whether the current system for non-eu exports can be left running for current non-eu countries and the new system be used for the current EU countries when they become third countries to us. Bit of planning and 9 months should be doable.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
I'm not convinced that lying about being prepared (the Trump strategy) would be a better solution.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Some still do - there were a couple of backbenchers interviewed the other day who still seemed quite enthusiastic about WTO Brexit, and couldn’t see any problems...
I can imagine her having an hour long meltdown trying to decide whether she wants tea or coffee with her breakfast... Before ultimately choosing orange juice.
'Mrs May, what is your ideal breakfast?'
'I enjoy all kinds of breakfast. I have breakfast every day. However, at a time like this we should be thinking of those who have no breakfast. The suffering of hunger is what gets me out of bed in the morning.'
'I have been very clear that breakfast means breakfast.'
"I'm going to make sure we all get red, white and blue breakfasts"
'Although, to avoid disruption we are going to delay breakfast for a couple of years and if we can't work out how to cook breakfast the backstop position will be no breakfast.'
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
I'm not convinced that lying about being prepared (the Trump strategy) would be a better solution.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Some still do - there were a couple of backbenchers interviewed the other day who still seemed quite enthusiastic about WTO Brexit, and couldn’t see any problems...
There’s plenty of problems, which is is why we should start planning for it now have started planning for it a year ago. It’s clear the EU have no interest in a good faith mutually acceptable deal, and we need to call them on it.
Something absolutely remarkable in the YouGov polling from today. These are figures for those in social grade C2DE (January numbers in brackets): CON 48% (35% in January) LAB 37% (46% in January) Eleven-point swing to the Tories from Labour since January."
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
I'm not convinced that lying about being prepared (the Trump strategy) would be a better solution.
Yes, but there are no economic consequences from walking away from the Korean talks.
I think the Trump way of doing Brexit would be to be completely open from the beginning about revoking Article 50 if we don't get a good enough exit deal, and frame as being a huge failure for the EU if it came to that.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
I'm not convinced that lying about being prepared (the Trump strategy) would be a better solution.
I don't think Geoff or anyone else is suggesting we should lie about it. But even now a resigned acceptance that we will not be getting an agreement and starting to take action to prepare for that would be better than the blind hope (what of I am not sure) that May seems to be relying upon.
But a willingness to be completely cavalier with the truth is a core part of Trump's modus operandi.
Is this we should have invested in customs posts a bit of a red herring? Currently we have to inspect certain goods like food according to EU law and they state that 50% of all Chicken shipments from outside the EU must be checked and 25% of beef. But out of the EU we could decide that we check 2% or 5% or whatever amount of the imports we have the BIP's to check, at least initially. Then we all know there is no chance of Dover being upgraded, no space so I do not believe that UK businesses and EU businesses are stupid and will continue to send their lorries into a port that they have been told will be huge delays. So provide them with other ports, where is the capacity, Felixstowe is currently having a large upgrade ready early 2018 (how convenient), route the Dover traffic to Rotterdam if the cargo can handle a extra day in transit. They must be spare capacity at UK ports to take the Dover traffic. Then there is the new computer system, there are enough IT experts on here to say whether the current system for non-eu exports can be left running for current non-eu countries and the new system be used for the current EU countries when they become third countries to us. Bit of planning and 9 months should be doable.
And what if we choose to check none at all? We may well end up eating a bit more horse than we do at present but the chances of genuinely dangerous food coming from the EU are slight. What’s needed is the will. But that, sadly, is what is lacking.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
I'm not convinced that lying about being prepared (the Trump strategy) would be a better solution.
Something absolutely remarkable in the YouGov polling from today. These are figures for those in social grade C2DE (January numbers in brackets): CON 48% (35% in January) LAB 37% (46% in January) Eleven-point swing to the Tories from Labour since January."
ABC1 figures for Yougov also have the Tories ahead but by a smaller margin, the figures are 42% Tory 38% Labour LD 11% SNP 4% Green 3% UKIP 2%
According to the YouGov figures Tories are 6% higher now with C2DEs than ABC1s, Labour 1% lower with C2DEs than ABC1s, the LDs 8% higher with ABC1s than C2DEs, UKIP 2% higher with C2DEs than ABC1s.
The SNP and Greens are classless doing equally well with middle class and working class voters.
Back to tied on right or wrong to Leave the EU too, 44% each. 72% of Tories think right to Leave, 63% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters think wrong to Leave.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position.
And, ultimately, it's Mrs May who needs to carry the can for this. Dull competence only works when there is actual competence. Simply not being Jeremy Corbyn - which is all that's keeping the Conservatives at 40% - is not enough.
The problem is - who follows her?
I've not seen much evidence of dull competence in any part of government for a long time.
I can imagine her having an hour long meltdown trying to decide whether she wants tea or coffee with her breakfast... Before ultimately choosing orange juice.
'Mrs May, what is your ideal breakfast?'
'I enjoy all kinds of breakfast. I have breakfast every day. However, at a time like this we should be thinking of those who have no breakfast. The suffering of hunger is what gets me out of bed in the morning.'
'I have been very clear that breakfast means breakfast.'
"I'm going to make sure we all get red, white and blue breakfasts"
'Although, to avoid disruption we are going to delay breakfast for a couple of years and if we can't work out how to cook breakfast the backstop position will be no breakfast.'
I am not clear on the FDP policy positions but certainly UK Libertarianism is a very long way from the US version. The most obvious difference is regarding religion which lays no part in the basic philosophy of UK Libertarianism but which seems, from a distance, to be fundamental to much of the US version.
Of course the big difference is with regard to where the power is supposed to lie. In the US much of the Libertarian - Tea Party movement believes that state power should lie with the States. But this often seems to be because they think that those States will then follow policies which we would consider very un-libertarian and illiberal. In the UK the idea is that the power should rest with the individual.
The FDP is a centre-right party closely associated with business - in Britain you'd expect to find many supporters in the Chambers of Commerce and the CBI. They are mildly liberal in social terms (mostly on the basis of let's get on with business, don't let's let prejudice get in the way) but so is most of Germany (CSU and AfD excepted) - I don't think the FDP really major on that.
Their main enemies are the Greens, some of whom are openly hostile to much of business as currently conducted (more so than the ex-communist Left, who have the trade union tradition of being tough negotiators but up for a deal). That's why the Jamaica coalition (CDU/FDP/Greens) didn't work - both parties get on OK with the Christian Democrats, but not with each other.
"Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).
There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).
Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options."
The electronic border is the best and most creative solution. But the EU refused to work collaboratively to achieve it.
When people look back on this in history a lot of blame will fall in the hands of politicians who undermined the UKs negotiating position
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
Our mandarins did advise her correctly, but she got rid instead. We have no need of experts.
Ivan Rogers resignation letter is worth reading, as he seems quite prophetic now.
I am not clear on the FDP policy positions but certainly UK Libertarianism is a very long way from the US version. The most obvious difference is regarding religion which lays no part in the basic philosophy of UK Libertarianism but which seems, from a distance, to be fundamental to much of the US version.
Of course the big difference is with regard to where the power is supposed to lie. In the US much of the Libertarian - Tea Party movement believes that state power should lie with the States. But this often seems to be because they think that those States will then follow policies which we would consider very un-libertarian and illiberal. In the UK the idea is that the power should rest with the individual.
The FDP is a centre-right party closely associated with business - in Britain you'd expect to find many supporters in the Chambers of Commerce and the CBI. They are mildly liberal in social terms (mostly on the basis of let's get on with business, don't let's let prejudice get in the way) but so is most of Germany (CSU and AfD excepted) - I don't think the FDP really major on that.
Their main enemies are the Greens, some of whom are openly hostile to much of business as currently conducted (more so than the ex-communist Left, who have the trade union tradition of being tough negotiators but up for a deal). That's why the Jamaica coalition (CDU/FDP/Greens) didn't work - both parties get on OK with the Christian Democrats, but not with each other.
On the other hand, the FDP and SPD worked pretty well in Coalition under Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt from 1969 to 1982.
Something absolutely remarkable in the YouGov polling from today. These are figures for those in social grade C2DE (January numbers in brackets): CON 48% (35% in January) LAB 37% (46% in January) Eleven-point swing to the Tories from Labour since January."
ABC1 figures for Yougov also have the Tories ahead but by a smaller margin, the figures are 42% Tory 38% Labour LD 11% SNP 4% Green 3% UKIP 2%
According to the YouGov figures Tories are 6% higher now with C2DEs than ABC1s, Labour 1% lower with C2DEs than ABC1s, the LDs 8% higher with ABC1s than C2DEs, UKIP 2% higher with C2DEs than ABC1s.
The SNP and Greens are classless doing equally well with middle class and working class voters.
Back to tied on right or wrong to Leave the EU too, 44% each. 72% of Tories think right to Leave, 63% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters think wrong to Leave.
Survation figures today break down the class figures further and show the Tories still have a big lead with ABs on 48% to 27% for Labour and 16% for the LDs but it is Labour who now lead with C1s on 45% to 39% for the Tories and 6% for the LDs.
C2s are almost even with 41% Labour 40% Tory and 4% LD, DEs remain Labour's strongest group on 51% to 33% for the Tories. So Survation still has Labour leading with C2DEs comfortably unlike YouGov.
However it does agree with YouGov on EU ref, it has 50% Leave 50% Remain in any EU ref 2 with 71% of Tories backing Leave, 68% of Labour voters and 76% of LDs backing Remain.
"Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).
There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).
Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options."
The electronic border is the best and most creative solution. But the EU refused to work collaboratively to achieve it.
When people look back on this in history a lot of blame will fall in the hands of politicians who undermined the UKs negotiating position
Nah. This is a Tory project, and their fingerprints are all over it. After all they were at the wheel.
What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?
'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out).. I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'. That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
They are going to make it difficult as you would expect , no fudges. It is sh*t or bust time. May is holding a busted flush.
Putting those two together, Barnier seems to be saying there's no solution to the problem. Of course he's right, if you start from the demented premise that it is a universal law of nature that the absence of regulatory alignment forces the EU and Ireland to put up a hard border. On the other hand, if you don't start from that premise, then the whole debate is a waste of time, and the whole EU position is a logical nonsense.
In plain English, the EU's position is bonkers. It's also completely back to front, given that as we've said many times, it would make far more sense to start with the long-term relationship and then consider the implications for the border.
So what does the EU actually want? If all options are impossible, there will be no deal,. If there's no deal, there's no backstop and no payments to the EU budget and, by their own logic, and inevitable hard border, which is also completely unacceptable to them.
I do not pretend to know or understand what is going on.
But it feels to me as if the chances of a “no deal” departure have increased in the last few weeks.
There can't be a no deal departure. Ceteris Paribus, a no deal departure would mean a hard border in NI, put up by the EU because the UK would then be a Third Country. But as @Richard_Nabavi has pointed out, that is crazy because the EU is committed to no hard border so can't then decree that there has to be a hard border. Which leaves two alternatives:
1. The UK remains in the CU/SM in order to align the two regions (EU/UK) and avoid a border either on the Buncrana Road or in the Irish Sea. But has the EU just said that this is not possible?
2. There is a wholly electronic, registration system of a "border" of the like that exists nowhere else either with the EU (eg. Switzerland, etc), or, say, the US/Canada.
Or, there is 3. As @SeanT has said, they think that the mere thought of them pushing for a hard border (eg. no deal), despite the fact that they don't want one because an EU Member State (RoI) is set against it, will force the UK to backtrack completely and sign up wholly on the EU's terms to whatever flavour of agreement they put forward.
LO, it means UK crawling to EU and staying as a vassal state, paying through the nose but with no power. Exactly what has been EU position from the start. Only option these donkeys had was to start building at ports and call their bluff, they know now St Theresa wants a fudge and coiuntry is f**ked.
I can imagine her having an hour long meltdown trying to decide whether she wants tea or coffee with her breakfast... Before ultimately choosing orange juice.
'Mrs May, what is your ideal breakfast?'
'I enjoy all kinds of breakfast. I have breakfast every day. However, at a time like this we should be thinking of those who have no breakfast. The suffering of hunger is what gets me out of bed in the morning.'
'I have been very clear that breakfast means breakfast.'
"I'm going to make sure we all get red, white and blue breakfasts"
'Although, to avoid disruption we are going to delay breakfast for a couple of years and if we can't work out how to cook breakfast the backstop position will be no breakfast.'
Phew - I'm not really a fan of breakfast.
Who ever knew that breakfast meant dog's breakfast.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position.
And, ultimately, it's Mrs May who needs to carry the can for this. Dull competence only works when there is actual competence. Simply not being Jeremy Corbyn - which is all that's keeping the Conservatives at 40% - is not enough.
The problem is - who follows her?
As I said I think it's Javid as PM and Gove as Chancellor. Whether they will be better is unknown, though I don't think they can be any worse.
You are correct that having a fallback position would have made a deal easier to achieve, the EU would be spending its own political capital to keep us in its circle of influence given that we'd have an alternative path. Because we have nowhere else to go they know we will stay in the customs union at an extremely high political and economic cost.
Additionally planning for WTO Brexit and having a clear no deal plan laid out would also help business investment. At the very least companies would know what the worse case scenario was and base decisions on that.
What relationship does the EU actually want with us ?
'Cake and eat it', apparently, or some magic kingdom where unicorns prance over the Irish border but otherwise we are a third country.
One might view this as overcautious but I can see enough water between the EU and the Gov'ts position now to take my stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet, and I have done so (leaving the profit on Out).. I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'. That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
They are going to make it difficult as you would expect , no fudges. It is sh*t or bust time. May is holding a busted flush.
This year the EU is facing a populist revolt in Italy over austerity and migration, the anti immigration Swedish Democrats potentially coming first in September's Swedish general election and if they want to add hard Brexit to that and tariffs from both the UK and the USA then that is up to them
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
Our mandarins did advise her correctly, but she got rid instead. We have no need of experts.
Ivan Rogers resignation letter is worth reading, as he seems quite prophetic now.
Is this we should have invested in customs posts a bit of a red herring? Currently we have to inspect certain goods like food according to EU law and they state that 50% of all Chicken shipments from outside the EU must be checked and 25% of beef. But out of the EU we could decide that we check 2% or 5% or whatever amount of the imports we have the BIP's to check, at least initially. Then we all know there is no chance of Dover being upgraded, no space so I do not believe that UK businesses and EU businesses are stupid and will continue to send their lorries into a port that they have been told will be huge delays. So provide them with other ports, where is the capacity, Felixstowe is currently having a large upgrade ready early 2018 (how convenient), route the Dover traffic to Rotterdam if the cargo can handle a extra day in transit. They must be spare capacity at UK ports to take the Dover traffic. Then there is the new computer system, there are enough IT experts on here to say whether the current system for non-eu exports can be left running for current non-eu countries and the new system be used for the current EU countries when they become third countries to us. Bit of planning and 9 months should be doable.
And what if we choose to check none at all? We may well end up eating a bit more horse than we do at present but the chances of genuinely dangerous food coming from the EU are slight. What’s needed is the will. But that, sadly, is what is lacking.
Why should we have to gut our food safety standards to accommodate Brexit?
I am not clear on the FDP policy positions but certainly UK Libertarianism is a very long way from the US version. The most obvious difference is regarding religion which lays no part in the basic philosophy of UK Libertarianism but which seems, from a distance, to be fundamental to much of the US version.
Of course the big difference is with regard to where the power is supposed to lie. In the US much of the Libertarian - Tea Party movement believes that state power should lie with the States. But this often seems to be because they think that those States will then follow policies which we would consider very un-libertarian and illiberal. In the UK the idea is that the power should rest with the individual.
The FDP is a centre-right party closely associated with business - in Britain you'd expect to find many supporters in the Chambers of Commerce and the CBI. They are mildly liberal in social terms (mostly on the basis of let's get on with business, don't let's let prejudice get in the way) but so is most of Germany (CSU and AfD excepted) - I don't think the FDP really major on that.
Their main enemies are the Greens, some of whom are openly hostile to much of business as currently conducted (more so than the ex-communist Left, who have the trade union tradition of being tough negotiators but up for a deal). That's why the Jamaica coalition (CDU/FDP/Greens) didn't work - both parties get on OK with the Christian Democrats, but not with each other.
Cheers Nick. I must admit that doesn't sound very libertarian or even old school Liberal to me.
"Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).
There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).
Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options."
The electronic border is the best and most creative solution. But the EU refused to work collaboratively to achieve it.
When people look back on this in history a lot of blame will fall in the hands of politicians who undermined the UKs negotiating position
Wishful thinking. This particular chapter in the history books will open wth a picture of a red bus.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
I'm not convinced that lying about being prepared (the Trump strategy) would be a better solution.
I don't think Geoff or anyone else is suggesting we should lie about it. But even now a resigned acceptance that we will not be getting an agreement and starting to take action to prepare for that would be better than the blind hope (what of I am not sure) that May seems to be relying upon.
But a willingness to be completely cavalier with the truth is a core part of Trump's modus operandi.
True but then I would say the same of just about every politician. Trump's problem is twofold. He is crap at just about everything - including dishonesty - and he really doesn't seem to give a damn about it.
Luckily Scotland will have a referendum and get out of the UK at earliest opportunity.
You seem awfully confident of that. As a unionist I will never fall afoul of complacency when it comes to Scotland, but why are you so sure this time Scotland will 'get out'?
Something absolutely remarkable in the YouGov polling from today. These are figures for those in social grade C2DE (January numbers in brackets): CON 48% (35% in January) LAB 37% (46% in January) Eleven-point swing to the Tories from Labour since January."
ABC1 figures for Yougov also have the Tories ahead but by a smaller margin, the figures are 42% Tory 38% Labour LD 11% SNP 4% Green 3% UKIP 2%
According to the YouGov figures Tories are 6% higher now with C2DEs than ABC1s, Labour 1% lower with C2DEs than ABC1s, the LDs 8% higher with ABC1s than C2DEs, UKIP 2% higher with C2DEs than ABC1s.
The SNP and Greens are classless doing equally well with middle class and working class voters.
Back to tied on right or wrong to Leave the EU too, 44% each. 72% of Tories think right to Leave, 63% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters think wrong to Leave.
Survation figures today break down the class figures further and show the Tories still have a big lead with ABs on 48% to 27% for Labour and 16% for the LDs but it is Labour who now lead with C1s on 45% to 39% for the Tories and 6% for the LDs.
C2s are almost even with 41% Labour 40% Tory and 4% LD, DEs remain Labour's strongest group on 51% to 33% for the Tories. So Survation still has Labour leading with C2DEs comfortably unlike YouGov.
However it does agree with YouGov on EU ref, it has 50% Leave 50% Remain in any EU ref 2 with 71% of Tories backing Leave, 68% of Labour voters and 76% of LDs backing Remain.
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
Our mandarins did advise her correctly, but she got rid instead. We have no need of experts.
Ivan Rogers resignation letter is worth reading, as he seems quite prophetic now.
Is this we should have invested in customs posts a bit of a red herring? Currently we have to inspect certain goods like food according to EU law and they state that 50% of all Chicken shipments from outside the EU must be checked and 25% of beef. But out of the EU we could decide that we check 2% or 5% or whatever amount of the imports we have the BIP's to check, at least initially. Then we all know there is no chance of Dover being upgraded, no space so I do not believe that UK businesses and EU businesses are stupid and will continue to send their lorries into a port that they have been told will be huge delays. So provide them with other ports, where is the capacity, Felixstowe is currently having a large upgrade ready early 2018 (how convenient), route the Dover traffic to Rotterdam if the cargo can handle a extra day in transit. They must be spare capacity at UK ports to take the Dover traffic. Then there is the new computer system, there are enough IT experts on here to say whether the current system for non-eu exports can be left running for current non-eu countries and the new system be used for the current EU countries when they become third countries to us. Bit of planning and 9 months should be doable.
And what if we choose to check none at all? We may well end up eating a bit more horse than we do at present but the chances of genuinely dangerous food coming from the EU are slight. What’s needed is the will. But that, sadly, is what is lacking.
Why should we have to gut our food safety standards to accommodate Brexit?
Because today we trust that food made in the EU is safe. We check none at the border. Why does EU food become unsafe after Brexit?
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
Our mandarins did advise her correctly, but she got rid instead. We have no need of experts.
Ivan Rogers resignation letter is worth reading, as he seems quite prophetic now.
According to his own words Ivan Rogers thinks every PM who has not fully embraced the EU programme was wrong.
He was right in his resignation letter though. This in particular sticks out to me. Indeed it remains the problem 18 months later:
"My own view remains as it has always been. We do not yet know what the government will set as negotiating objectives for the UK's relationship with the EU after exit."
Do I sense a little discontent among pb's Leavers this afternoon?
Might this afternoon be the afternoon where those Leavers acknowledge that negotiating with the EU hasn't turned out to be quite as straightforward as they had aggressively asserted it would be before the referendum vote?
Only because the virulent remainers in the cabinet didn't allow any WTO exit planning. Though I put the blame on Davis for not resigning when the PM denied the planning.
I suspect the truth is that the Remainers didn't want to risk no deal, and the Brexiteers believed their own bullshit.
Yes that's probably right. Though if they had bought any single report from the City they would have been able to read the advice to prepare for a WTO exit "just in case".
There was no excuse not to prepare. Indeed, I suspect preparation would actually have made a deal easier to reach, because we'd have a plausible fallback position. . . .
The naïvity of May's negotiating position has been laughable. Trump would have advised her better than our mandarins.
Our mandarins did advise her correctly, but she got rid instead. We have no need of experts.
Ivan Rogers resignation letter is worth reading, as he seems quite prophetic now.
According to his own words Ivan Rogers thinks every PM who has not fully embraced the EU programme was wrong.
He was right in his resignation letter though. This in particular sticks out to me. Indeed it remains the problem 18 months later:
"My own view remains as it has always been. We do not yet know what the government will set as negotiating objectives for the UK's relationship with the EU after exit."
Indeed. And this will come to be seen as totally inexcusable.
I am not clear on the FDP policy positions but certainly UK Libertarianism is a very long way from the US version. The most obvious difference is regarding religion which lays no part in the basic philosophy of UK Libertarianism but which seems, from a distance, to be fundamental to much of the US version.
Of course the big difference is with regard to where the power is supposed to lie. In the US much of the Libertarian - Tea Party movement believes that state power should lie with the States. But this often seems to be because they think that those States will then follow policies which we would consider very un-libertarian and illiberal. In the UK the idea is that the power should rest with the individual.
The FDP is a centre-right party closely associated with business - in Britain you'd expect to find many supporters in the Chambers of Commerce and the CBI. They are mildly liberal in social terms (mostly on the basis of let's get on with business, don't let's let prejudice get in the way) but so is most of Germany (CSU and AfD excepted) - I don't think the FDP really major on that.
Their main enemies are the Greens, some of whom are openly hostile to much of business as currently conducted (more so than the ex-communist Left, who have the trade union tradition of being tough negotiators but up for a deal). That's why the Jamaica coalition (CDU/FDP/Greens) didn't work - both parties get on OK with the Christian Democrats, but not with each other.
Cheers Nick. I must admit that doesn't sound very libertarian or even old school Liberal to me.
They are pro business, anti big state and socially liberal which is about as libertarian as it gets and probably the only party in the western world which achieves 10% of the vote+ that can be called libertarian, if you keep whining no party is pure libertarian enough for you it is hardly surprising no libertarian party ever gets support from more than a tiny fraction of the population
Indeed. And this will come to be seen as totally inexcusable.
I'm no supporter of the Conservatives and it astonishes me no one has called them out not only for not preparing for a LEAVE win in the Referendum but also for not making proper contingency plans for a "WTO" or no deal scenario.
This would be bad enough but it has also meant dozens of other projects in other areas of work have been left abandoned compromising our progress in a host of other key areas.
Lyuckily Scotland will have a referendum and get out of the UK at earliest opportunity.
That would be the Scotland which would see the SNP and Greens lose their majority at the next Holyrood elections according to today's YouGov? Or the Scotland which according to that same poll opposes a second indyref by a clear margin either before or after Brexit?
Just catching up from a bonnie view over Moray golf club to the Firth and see the conservatives are 44/37 v labour with you gov and labour and Corbyn are tanking in Scotland.
Can anyone explain these figures with a government staggering over Brexit, the railways, the NHS, Windrush and Grenfell Tower and Boris Hammond and all in chaos in the media
Also at which point will HMG tell Barnier to get lost and walk away from the talks. Looks like this is the only thing that may bring the EU to it's senses. Time we stood up for ourselves
Something absolutely remarkable in the YouGov polling from today. These are figures for those in social grade C2DE (January numbers in brackets): CON 48% (35% in January) LAB 37% (46% in January) Eleven-point swing to the Tories from Labour since January."
ABC1 figures for Yougov also have the Tories ahead but by a smaller margin, the figures are 42% Tory 38% Labour LD 11% SNP 4% Green 3% UKIP 2%
According to the YouGov figures Tories are 6% higher now with C2DEs than ABC1s, Labour 1% lower with C2DEs than ABC1s, the LDs 8% higher with ABC1s than C2DEs, UKIP 2% higher with C2DEs than ABC1s.
The SNP and Greens are classless doing equally well with middle class and working class voters.
Back to tied on right or wrong to Leave the EU too, 44% each. 72% of Tories think right to Leave, 63% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters think wrong to Leave.
Survation figures today break down the class figures further and show the Tories still have a big lead with ABs on 48% to 27% for Labour and 16% for the LDs but it is Labour who now lead with C1s on 45% to 39% for the Tories and 6% for the LDs.
C2s are almost even with 41% Labour 40% Tory and 4% LD, DEs remain Labour's strongest group on 51% to 33% for the Tories. So Survation still has Labour leading with C2DEs comfortably unlike YouGov.
However it does agree with YouGov on EU ref, it has 50% Leave 50% Remain in any EU ref 2 with 71% of Tories backing Leave, 68% of Labour voters and 76% of LDs backing Remain.
Also at which point will HMG tell Barnier to get lost and walk away from the talks. Looks like this is the only thing that may bring the EU to it's senses. Time we stood up for ourselves
I think this sentiment among Conservative members is what might do for May - it's always been the case that the UK needed to be willing to walk - that has never seemed to be something that the government was prepared to consider.
Lyuckily Scotland will have a referendum and get out of the UK at earliest opportunity.
That would be the Scotland which would see the SNP and Greens lose their majority at the next Holyrood elections according to today's YouGov? Or the Scotland which according to that same poll opposes a second indyref by a clear margin either before or after Brexit?
Can I just clarify your oft repeated but somewhat incoherent Indy ref II position? The SNP and Greens lose their majority at the next Holyrood elections so they can't hold a referendum?
So that means with a majority and legislation passed now they can have a referendum, and if they do get a majority at the next Holyrood elections, they can also hold a referendum? Have I got that right?
I see that YouGov and Survation have provided polls to keep both Tory and Labour supporters happy today. Tories will love the YouGov one, and Corbyn supporters will love the Survation one.
Just catching up from a bonnie view over Moray golf club to the Firth and see the conservatives are 44/37 v labour with you gov and labour and Corbyn are tanking in Scotland.
Can anyone explain these figures with a government staggering over Brexit, the railways, the NHS, Windrush and Grenfell Tower and Boris Hammond and all in chaos in the media
Also at which point will HMG tell Barnier to get lost and walk away from the talks. Looks like this is the only thing that may bring the EU to it's senses. Time we stood up for ourselves
First, the You Gov poll might be an outlier - it's not supported by Survation and we need much more evidence before the Conservatives on here can hang out the bunting and start clamouring for another election - you never know, third time lucky and all that.
Second, I had you pegged for more sense. The "flouncers" are clearly more interested in a quick blip in the polls than in the best interests of the country. As a LEAVE voter, I've been disappointed but not terribly surprised by the ineptitude of May. Her self-indulgence last year notwithstanding, she has caved on almost everything and her inability to effectively spell out a coherent post-EU future speaks volumes as her primary concern now seems to be a) keeping herself in No. 10 and b) keeping the Conservative Party together.
Also at which point will HMG tell Barnier to get lost and walk away from the talks. Looks like this is the only thing that may bring the EU to it's senses. Time we stood up for ourselves
I think this sentiment among Conservative members is what might do for May - it's always been the case that the UK needed to be willing to walk - that has never seemed to be something that the government was prepared to consider.
It is extreme and I do not want it to happen but in the end the EU need to be brought to the table
I see that YouGov and Survation have provided polls to keep both Tory and Labour supporters happy today. Tories will love the YouGov one, and Corbyn supporters will love the Survation one.
The Survation one that still has the Tories in front?
Also at which point will HMG tell Barnier to get lost and walk away from the talks. Looks like this is the only thing that may bring the EU to it's senses. Time we stood up for ourselves
I think this sentiment among Conservative members is what might do for May - it's always been the case that the UK needed to be willing to walk - that has never seemed to be something that the government was prepared to consider.
Even if we’d started preparations the day after referendum we would never have been ready for a WTO exit, short of delaying trigerring A50 by 3 years which would have been politically unacceptable.
Also at which point will HMG tell Barnier to get lost and walk away from the talks. Looks like this is the only thing that may bring the EU to it's senses. Time we stood up for ourselves
I think this sentiment among Conservative members is what might do for May - it's always been the case that the UK needed to be willing to walk - that has never seemed to be something that the government was prepared to consider.
We all remember the Cameron "flounce" back in 2011. Everyone got excited when the Tories went up a few points in the polls but was it sustained ? No, soon Cameron was back as though nothing had happened which was basically the truth.
Lyuckily Scotland will have a referendum and get out of the UK at earliest opportunity.
That would be the Scotland which would see the SNP and Greens lose their majority at the next Holyrood elections according to today's YouGov? Or the Scotland which according to that same poll opposes a second indyref by a clear margin either before or after Brexit?
Can I just clarify your oft repeated but somewhat incoherent Indy ref II position? The SNP and Greens lose their majority at the next Holyrood elections so they can't hold a referendum?
So that means with a majority and legislation passed now they can have a referendum, and if they do get a majority at the next Holyrood elections, they can also hold a referendum? Have I got that right?
When Sturgeon pushed indyref2 at the last general election due to the UK's Brexit vote which Scotland did not vote for she got just 37% support for it and lost over a third of her seats, if she wants an indyref2 she needs a clear SNP and Green majority again at the next Holyrood elections on a clear manifesto commitment for that indyref in the Parliament.
Though constitutionally it is still up to Westminster to decide whether to grant any new indyref.
Just catching up from a bonnie view over Moray golf club to the Firth and see the conservatives are 44/37 v labour with you gov and labour and Corbyn are tanking in Scotland.
Can anyone explain these figures with a government staggering over Brexit, the railways, the NHS, Windrush and Grenfell Tower and Boris Hammond and all in chaos in the media
Also at which point will HMG tell Barnier to get lost and walk away from the talks. Looks like this is the only thing that may bring the EU to it's senses. Time we stood up for ourselves
First, the You Gov poll might be an outlier - it's not supported by Survation and we need much more evidence before the Conservatives on here can hang out the bunting and start clamouring for another election - you never know, third time lucky and all that.
Second, I had you pegged for more sense. The "flouncers" are clearly more interested in a quick blip in the polls than in the best interests of the country. As a LEAVE voter, I've been disappointed but not terribly surprised by the ineptitude of May. Her self-indulgence last year notwithstanding, she has caved on almost everything and her inability to effectively spell out a coherent post-EU future speaks volumes as her primary concern now seems to be a) keeping herself in No. 10 and b) keeping the Conservative Party together.
It is the last resort but the Country may well turn against the EU itself if it perceives it as being unreasonable. And no matter the polls absolutely no election please.
I see that YouGov and Survation have provided polls to keep both Tory and Labour supporters happy today. Tories will love the YouGov one, and Corbyn supporters will love the Survation one.
The Survation one that still has the Tories in front?
Just catching up from a bonnie view over Moray golf club to the Firth and see the conservatives are 44/37 v labour with you gov and labour and Corbyn are tanking in Scotland.
Can anyone explain these figures with a government staggering over Brexit, the railways, the NHS, Windrush and Grenfell Tower and Boris Hammond and all in chaos in the media
Also at which point will HMG tell Barnier to get lost and walk away from the talks. Looks like this is the only thing that may bring the EU to it's senses. Time we stood up for ourselves
Don't forget the retail apocalypse.
And the answer is that almost nobody gives a toss about Grenfell orWindrush, only those people being adversely affected give a toss about railways or the NHS (or the retail apocalypse) and everyone expects our politicians to be useless.
Meanwhile there's lots of money about for lots of people, there's lots of construction work being undertaken and the supermarkets are filled with lots of British strawberries.
Just catching up from a bonnie view over Moray golf club to the Firth and see the conservatives are 44/37 v labour with you gov and labour and Corbyn are tanking in Scotland.
Can anyone explain these figures with a government staggering over Brexit, the railways, the NHS, Windrush and Grenfell Tower and Boris Hammond and all in chaos in the media
Also at which point will HMG tell Barnier to get lost and walk away from the talks. Looks like this is the only thing that may bring the EU to it's senses. Time we stood up for ourselves
Don't forget the retail apocalypse.
And the answer is that almost nobody gives a toss about Grenfell orWindrush, only those people being adversely affected give a toss about railways or the NHS (or the retail apocalypse) and everyone expects our politicians to be useless.
Meanwhile there's lots of money about for lots of people, there's lots of construction work being undertaken and the supermarkets are filled with lots of British strawberries.
Just bought first picking of Scottish Strawberries in Perthshire today on our way north and they were wonderful and had that lovely aroma
I see that YouGov and Survation have provided polls to keep both Tory and Labour supporters happy today. Tories will love the YouGov one, and Corbyn supporters will love the Survation one.
The Survation one that still has the Tories in front?
It’s a one point, so pretty much level pegging.
Could be.
Though Survation had Labour 7% ahead in March so there still been a swing to the Conservatives with them.
I see that YouGov and Survation have provided polls to keep both Tory and Labour supporters happy today. Tories will love the YouGov one, and Corbyn supporters will love the Survation one.
Why would labour love Survation when it shows them behind despite the chaos in government
I see that YouGov and Survation have provided polls to keep both Tory and Labour supporters happy today. Tories will love the YouGov one, and Corbyn supporters will love the Survation one.
The Survation one that still has the Tories in front?
It’s a one point, so pretty much level pegging.
Could be.
Though Survation had Labour 7% ahead in March so there still been a swing to the Conservatives with them.
I see that YouGov and Survation have provided polls to keep both Tory and Labour supporters happy today. Tories will love the YouGov one, and Corbyn supporters will love the Survation one.
Why would labour love Survation when it shows them behind despite the chaos in government
As if Labour have had a last good six months. It’s been disastrous for the government, but Labour have had a disaster class since January. Of course the polling showing them pretty much level pegging could be rubbish, I’m cautious about polls these days. But after the last six months, Corbyn supporters will take these figures.
I see that YouGov and Survation have provided polls to keep both Tory and Labour supporters happy today. Tories will love the YouGov one, and Corbyn supporters will love the Survation one.
I usually take an average of the last 10 polls to get an idea of what's going on.
I see that YouGov and Survation have provided polls to keep both Tory and Labour supporters happy today. Tories will love the YouGov one, and Corbyn supporters will love the Survation one.
I usually take an average of the last 10 polls to get an idea of what's going on.
This was covered by The Sun not too long ago. I’m unsure as to why it would be explosive though, I doubt his statements will impact Khan’s chances of being re-elected.
I see that YouGov and Survation have provided polls to keep both Tory and Labour supporters happy today. Tories will love the YouGov one, and Corbyn supporters will love the Survation one.
The Survation one that still has the Tories in front?
It’s a one point, so pretty much level pegging.
Could be.
Though Survation had Labour 7% ahead in March so there still been a swing to the Conservatives with them.
That Survation 7 point lead was an outlier.
So could a Conservative lead of only 1%.
I think there's been a swing to the Conservatives in 2018 - whether that's been 1%, 2% or more I don't know.
"Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).
There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).
Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options."
The electronic border is the best and most creative solution. But the EU refused to work collaboratively to achieve it.
When people look back on this in history a lot of blame will fall in the hands of politicians who undermined the UKs negotiating position
I actually think the EU's suggestion of special status for Northern Ireland is the best one. But we have to wait until the next parliament when the DUP are no longer kingmakers to do it.
I see that YouGov and Survation have provided polls to keep both Tory and Labour supporters happy today. Tories will love the YouGov one, and Corbyn supporters will love the Survation one.
The Survation one that still has the Tories in front?
It’s a one point, so pretty much level pegging.
Could be.
Though Survation had Labour 7% ahead in March so there still been a swing to the Conservatives with them.
That Survation 7 point lead was an outlier.
So could a Conservative lead of only 1%.
I think there's been a swing to the Conservatives in 2018 - whether that's been 1%, 2% or more I don't know.
It could be, although we’ve seen a fair few polls showing those kinds of figures, while it’s been rare to see seven point leads of any kind.
I see that YouGov and Survation have provided polls to keep both Tory and Labour supporters happy today. Tories will love the YouGov one, and Corbyn supporters will love the Survation one.
Why would labour love Survation when it shows them behind despite the chaos in government
As if Labour have had a last good six months. It’s been disastrous for the government, but Labour have had a disaster class since January. Of course the polling showing them pretty much level pegging could be rubbish, I’m cautious about polls these days. But after the last six months, Corbyn supporters will take these figures.
Comments
And, ultimately, it's Mrs May who needs to carry the can for this. Dull competence only works when there is actual competence. Simply not being Jeremy Corbyn - which is all that's keeping the Conservatives at 40% - is not enough.
The problem is - who follows her?
Of course the big difference is with regard to where the power is supposed to lie. In the US much of the Libertarian - Tea Party movement believes that state power should lie with the States. But this often seems to be because they think that those States will then follow policies which we would consider very un-libertarian and illiberal. In the UK the idea is that the power should rest with the individual.
Anyway off to hear some piano playing.
Toodles.
If you regularly use the NHS, rely on benefits and social housing or have traditional religious views of the family you are clearly not very likely to be a libertarian
The Tea Party was part of the conservative Republican Party not the Libertarian Party
You are correct that having a fallback position would have made a deal easier to achieve, the EU would be spending its own political capital to keep us in its circle of influence given that we'd have an alternative path. Because we have nowhere else to go they know we will stay in the customs union at an extremely high political and economic cost.
Additionally planning for WTO Brexit and having a clear no deal plan laid out would also help business investment. At the very least companies would know what the worse case scenario was and base decisions on that.
For someone who was supposed to be competent as her strong point, May has been anything but.
Yeah but there was no snapchat then.....
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/06/07/trump-maximum-pressure-walk-away-kim-north-korea-nr-bts.cnn/video/playlists/trump-and-north-korea/
The Trump strategy in full. The author has him down to a tee.
Even if Corbyn won in 2022 he would just be pretty much hard Brexit plus socialism
@election_data
Something absolutely remarkable in the YouGov polling from today. These are figures for those in social grade C2DE (January numbers in brackets):
CON 48% (35% in January)
LAB 37% (46% in January)
Eleven-point swing to the Tories from Labour since January."
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1005013629912088576
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44354819
It is a very sweet story, but it does rather make a mockery of the fact no Premier league refs (who are full time and ref one of the top leagues in the world) are going to the World Cup.
The firm, which was founded in 1963 and counts the Duchess of Cambridge among its fans, has seven stores around the UK.
Currently we have to inspect certain goods like food according to EU law and they state that 50% of all Chicken shipments from outside the EU must be checked and 25% of beef. But out of the EU we could decide that we check 2% or 5% or whatever amount of the imports we have the BIP's to check, at least initially.
Then we all know there is no chance of Dover being upgraded, no space so I do not believe that UK businesses and EU businesses are stupid and will continue to send their lorries into a port that they have been told will be huge delays. So provide them with other ports, where is the capacity, Felixstowe is currently having a large upgrade ready early 2018 (how convenient), route the Dover traffic to Rotterdam if the cargo can handle a extra day in transit. They must be spare capacity at UK ports to take the Dover traffic.
Then there is the new computer system, there are enough IT experts on here to say whether the current system for non-eu exports can be left running for current non-eu countries and the new system be used for the current EU countries when they become third countries to us.
Bit of planning and 9 months should be doable.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/08/russia-g7-633705
Aberdeenshire
Perthshire
Leicestershire
Staffordshire
Herefordshire
Somerset
Berkshire
Kent
So that's maintaining 8 with a gain of Staffordshire and Somerset but losing Nottinghamshire and Surrey.
According to the YouGov figures Tories are 6% higher now with C2DEs than ABC1s, Labour 1% lower with C2DEs than ABC1s, the LDs 8% higher with ABC1s than C2DEs, UKIP 2% higher with C2DEs than ABC1s.
The SNP and Greens are classless doing equally well with middle class and working class voters.
Back to tied on right or wrong to Leave the EU too, 44% each. 72% of Tories think right to Leave, 63% of Labour voters and 80% of LD voters think wrong to Leave.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z1w1jcj6s9/TimesResults_180605_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
Strong and Stable, Strong and Stable, Nothing has Changed! Coalition of Chaos!
Or competence of any variety for that matter.
Their main enemies are the Greens, some of whom are openly hostile to much of business as currently conducted (more so than the ex-communist Left, who have the trade union tradition of being tough negotiators but up for a deal). That's why the Jamaica coalition (CDU/FDP/Greens) didn't work - both parties get on OK with the Christian Democrats, but not with each other.
When people look back on this in history a lot of blame will fall in the hands of politicians who undermined the UKs negotiating position
Ivan Rogers resignation letter is worth reading, as he seems quite prophetic now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38503504
C2s are almost even with 41% Labour 40% Tory and 4% LD, DEs remain Labour's strongest group on 51% to 33% for the Tories. So Survation still has Labour leading with C2DEs comfortably unlike YouGov.
However it does agree with YouGov on EU ref, it has 50% Leave 50% Remain in any EU ref 2 with 71% of Tories backing Leave, 68% of Labour voters and 76% of LDs backing Remain.
http://survation.com/will-there-be-champagne-on-the-anniversary-of-the-2017-general-election-nothing-has-changed-since-may-2018/
Only option these donkeys had was to start building at ports and call their bluff, they know now St Theresa wants a fudge and coiuntry is f**ked.
Why does EU food become unsafe after Brexit?
"My own view remains as it has always been. We do not yet know what the government will set as negotiating objectives for the UK's relationship with the EU after exit."
This would be bad enough but it has also meant dozens of other projects in other areas of work have been left abandoned compromising our progress in a host of other key areas.
Can anyone explain these figures with a government staggering over Brexit, the railways, the NHS, Windrush and Grenfell Tower and Boris Hammond and all in chaos in the media
Also at which point will HMG tell Barnier to get lost and walk away from the talks. Looks like this is the only thing that may bring the EU to it's senses. Time we stood up for ourselves
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1005143716611358720
So that means with a majority and legislation passed now they can have a referendum, and if they do get a majority at the next Holyrood elections, they can also hold a referendum? Have I got that right?
Second, I had you pegged for more sense. The "flouncers" are clearly more interested in a quick blip in the polls than in the best interests of the country. As a LEAVE voter, I've been disappointed but not terribly surprised by the ineptitude of May. Her self-indulgence last year notwithstanding, she has caved on almost everything and her inability to effectively spell out a coherent post-EU future speaks volumes as her primary concern now seems to be a) keeping herself in No. 10 and b) keeping the Conservative Party together.
It’s time for Love Island
Walking away was never an option
Though constitutionally it is still up to Westminster to decide whether to grant any new indyref.
But in fairness how would you resolve it
And the answer is that almost nobody gives a toss about Grenfell orWindrush, only those people being adversely affected give a toss about railways or the NHS (or the retail apocalypse) and everyone expects our politicians to be useless.
Meanwhile there's lots of money about for lots of people, there's lots of construction work being undertaken and the supermarkets are filled with lots of British strawberries.
Though Survation had Labour 7% ahead in March so there still been a swing to the Conservatives with them.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/stephen-lawrences-friend-duwayne-brooks-calls-on-sadiq-khan-to-quit-its-time-the-mayor-took-a3858441.html?amp
I think there's been a swing to the Conservatives in 2018 - whether that's been 1%, 2% or more I don't know.
https://twitter.com/kremlinrussia_e/status/1004749009888731142?s=21