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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2017 : One year on
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » General Election 2017 : One year on
At 10.00pm this evening, a year ago, the Prime Minister’s gamble backfired. Whether this was due to the polls being misleading from the start (indicating a Con lead of 25% at the start of the campaign), the so called “youthquake” (identified by the Britsh Election Study) or reasons best summed up by Brenda from Bristol of “Oh, no, not another one!” we simply cannot tell, but we do know this. The Conservative overall majority was lost and if it had not been for saving grace of twelve Conservatives gains in Scotland (all from the SNP), the Prime Minister would not have been able to govern with the DUP and the whole history of the UK from that moment could have changed.
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Forget Corbyn, the Moggites and even the Soubry/Clarke faction for a moment - the EU's position on the UK is now completely contradictory so far as I can tell.
Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.
I would add that UKIP (and, perhaps likelier, a new I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP Party) could suddenly do very well, depending how the EU nonsense goes.
I'm genuinely surprised by this latest move from Barnier, May got Davis' line about time limiting effectively legally nullified yesterday - and essentially prostrated the UK out in front of the EU giving them what they want on the 'backstop'.
That this now won't apply to the whole of the UK creates a situation where the Gov't of the UK (Which has the DUP) simply can't agree to anything the EU would find acceptable.
How would you fund the NHS? IFS tool.
https://explore.ifs.org.uk/tools/nhs_funding/tool
Inb4 people say "less managers, cut the waste" we are not talking about cutting corners type money here, we're talking massively ageing population and thousands upon thousands of people needing expensive long term chronic care in their twilight years.
This report also makes for some scary reading.
http://progressive-policy.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Report_Diagnosis-Critical-1.pdf
"Today there are 0.5 million more aged over 75 than there were in 2010, and there will be 2 million more in ten years' time"
The EU will not allow the UK to stay in the CU for the backstop (or anything else) because CU=SM=FOM. Get yourselves a T-shirt with the formula so you can remember it.
The ONLY two outcomes the EU will accept are:
1. NI in the CU and SM and the rest of the UK with an FTA - this is impossible not just because of the DUP, but because it is almost an Act of War to try and divide the UK in this way. Even with the spineless traitors we have in Parliament there is no majority for this.
2. UK in EEA-Plus, combining the EEA and the CU - this is ridiculous as it does not respect the result of the referendum - it involves full FOM, ECJ, ongoing contributions and no trade policy - eg everything we voted to Leave.
It didn't need to be like this. A tough negotiating position early on, a walkout and prep for no deal would have likely delivered a different outcome. But Barnier is now out of control and is so puffed up with his success humiliating the UK negotiators that there is no way to get him back to a sensible deal now. Thanks Remainers for this. You undermined our negotiations every step of the way.
So, either Traitor May sells out the UK in one of the greatest acts of failure since Chamberlain, or no deal.
But Soft Brexit simply does not exist.
1. The UK remains in the CU/SM in order to align the two regions (EU/UK) and avoid a border either on the Buncrana Road or in the Irish Sea. But has the EU just said that this is not possible?
2. There is a wholly electronic, registration system of a "border" of the like that exists nowhere else either with the EU (eg. Switzerland, etc), or, say, the US/Canada.
Or, there is 3. As @SeanT has said, they think that the mere thought of them pushing for a hard border (eg. no deal), despite the fact that they don't want one because an EU Member State (RoI) is set against it, will force the UK to backtrack completely and sign up wholly on the EU's terms to whatever flavour of agreement they put forward.
This steaming shitshow is down to everyone that voted for it.
However hard you wish you could blame those who said don't do it, it will be shit, it doesn't wash.
And will any posters who espoused this theory have the guts to admit they got it wrong?
So it probably won't happen.
Edited extra bit: ahem. I'm a bit distracted with other stuff and, for some reason, thought there was such money waiting around to be spent rather than just increasing the debt even more. *sighs* Just ignore that.
I can't believe I'm typing this but @SeanT has summarised it well - we are at the crunch point now.
We have had many discussions about NI previously (people here, ahem, might be aware of my views on it) and here it is, NI coming home to roost. We have zero wiggle room whatsoever.
Now, this doesn't mean we shouldn't have voted Leave, but it does mean that it should have been explained the complexities of doing so. I'm sure as an informed Leave voter (did you vote?) you knew it, of course.
If Tezza had not set her red lines, she would have been deposed, and Brexit would be fucked.
If she had not triggered A50, she would have been deposed, and Brexit would be fucked.
Not sure if you are a Prog Rock fan, but Genesis, the chamber of 32 doors is applicable.
Everyone is looking for a way out, but all doors lead right back here again.
Brexit is fucked, by Brexit.
As we told you it would be, before the vote.
You will never, ever, be able to make your line stick. The majority who voted Leave will always know that it was the Remainers who deliberately undermined the verdict of the people.
"[TMay] should never have triggered A50, until all this had been thrashed out"
This was not possible. The EU refused to negotiate or even bring up the issues (e.g. the Irish border) until A50 had been triggered.
We were screwed when the Lisbon treaty was signed.
Exquisite.
'WE HOLD ALL THE CARDS' does it feel like that to you right now?
That manifesto.
*shudders*
I do agree, however, that the public will not take kindly to capitulation.
Apart of course from FoM but no one really cares about that, do they?
Barnier is right - the REMAINERS endless whinging that they did not want to respect the result of the referendum, as you clearly demonstrate, has led us to ask for the 'benefits' of membership without the 'obligations'. This caused the UK to try and negotiate a ridiculous soft Brexit that has tied us up in knots and now, not surprisingly, cannot be delivered.
And what do we see - Remainers celebrating the potential humiliation of their own country. Says it all.
"Trigger A50, or we get someone who will..."
Theresa resigns.
The Tories replace her with a pragmatist who can straddle Leave and Remain.
We extend the Article 50 period to five more years.
A joint EU/UK committee is set up to recommend the most feasible solution, and all UK political parties agree to adhere to its findings.
A new referendum is called giving the choice of Brexit as recommended or full and complete withdrawal.
The first option will win by a landslide.
We'll all be merry and gay.
Remainers sold it all away for their obsession of ignoring the result of the referendum.
First, you, like Boris and many other Leavers, some of whom actually live in the UK so should know better, have paid token lip service to the NI issue. There is absolutely no solution to the NI/RoI situation that falls short of CU/SM. That should have been obvious. You as a grown-up (no proof here) should have realised that this was the very crux of the whole leaving debate. But no. You wanted sovereignty. Which we always had, of course.
And secondly, I am not celebrating the humiliation of my country (again, sorry to rub it in, but I am at least sufficiently approving of the UK to actually live in it), I am pointing out what is clear and has been clear for some time: that modern international relations cannot be boiled down to meaningless soundbites which do not take any note of the many consequences that they entail.
"Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).
There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).
Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options."
So.. I get that TMay feels the need to deliver Brexit and "not be bullied".. but she also needs to bear in mind that a more-than-marginally-sub-optimal version risks putting her successors out of power for some time.
How's that boil-lancing going, Dave?
Both main parties support Brexit.
Yes May "supported" Remain (almost silently and perhaps tactically) at the referendum, but the first 3 months of her leadership bid were exclusively "Brexit means Brexit". Boris, Davis and Fox in the Cabinet.
Even Corbyn is stymying attempts to water down Brexit e.g. by not supporting the Lords' EEA amendment.
Perhaps you would prefer some sort of oath of allegiance to Brexit as a requirement to be an MP? Ideological purity testing?
What we have right now is simply the result of Leavers promising the electorate unicorns and only having the budget for an injured donkey with a plunger on its head.
It is the problem when rhetoric collides with reality. Reality wins.
I want to leave the EU, and the customs union in particular. That doesn't seem an excessive thing for which to wish.
the thing is to leave and take the Michael Collins approach of once your out you can drift away
as for the EU holding all the cards that's just bunkum, but it takes a hard headed negotiator to play the game.
we should ask the DUP to take over DD's seat.
The UK simply had to say that it would impose a soft border on all northbound trade and accept any goods that met EU regulations as being acceptable. A maxfac scheme could have been slowly introduced that would tighten this up over a few years while UK regulations diverged. If the EU were not prepared to co-operate, then that was their problem. There is nothing in this that would have breached any obligations in the GFA or anywhere else.
You know perfectly well that the former Irish Government thought exactly the same thing and were preparing to go in this direction, before Varadkhar decided to be Barniers little bitch.
Just be honest. NI is a sidshow. You just won't accept the referendum because you think you are smarter than the people that voted to Leave.
Seant is on to something .
First, that he is protecting the EU's external borders. And secondly, that the EU negotiating position is strengthened by threatening something they don't want.
It all turns on how much of an invisible border the EU will tolerate in NI. If wholly, then the problem is mitigated because first, that's what we have today, and second, no one will be antagonised (still less care) that the lorry that whizzes between NI and the RoI has filled out some customs form.
He sees the Backstop as back door cakeism. So the question is, as @SeanT and @Richard_Nabavi have noted, is how much can the EU force the UK into a corner by threatening a hard border that they themselves don't want?
Mr. Sandpit, quite. The EU wants to annex UK territory, considering the territorial integrity of an actual country as more violable than that of the EU. It's a rancid, unacceptable piece of imperialist bullshit.
It tried to stop The Times reporting the extent to which it channels earnings through the companies, in a move that experts said could have enabled tax avoidance of up to £20 million.
After ignoring freedom of information requests for four months, the BBC was ordered to respond by the Information Commissioner.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/bbc-secretly-used-private-firms-to-pay-stars-millions-8q3khwwb8
I said, for a long time, that the customs union was the only firm red line I would have, and that I was flexible on almost everything else. Staying in the customs union and pretending we're leaving the EU, when they will have the same influence (total) over our trade policy but without even having to pretend to consider our interest is contemptible.
When the UK has decided on the nature of the relationship, (arms length or very close), then the EU will respond with proposals on how that can be achieved.
https://twitter.com/PA/status/1005089100918067200
Seems to be just about the only thing Brexiteers are good at...
Barnier’s lost the plot. He effectively wants to partly annex part of our country. The EU really is a malign power?
If “reverse Brexit” is his tactics, what’s his strategy? How on earth does he think this will foster long term goodwill between the U.K. and the EU, when millions of Brits would see voting counts for nothing when it comes to the EU?
It’s a seriously stupid strategy being pursued for short term (possible) tactical gain.
Still usual negotiating posturing today one hopes.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5810433/Audi-calls-tariff-free-trade-deal-UK-urging-EU-strike-deal.html
Mr. Ace, is that the test whereby you don't bother actually engaging with what the other person says but just assume they're wrong because they've clearly used a word you've decided invalidates their entire argument?
I do agree with your sentiments though!.
I suspect there’d be a huge sigh of relief if we turned round and asked to come back. All this ‘negotiation’ is a dreadful waste of everyone’s time.
I suspect (depending on next Tuesday) it may be a CU/SM deal on goods and FTA on services with a fudge on FOM. May will have to be seen as kicking and screaming against this (she's a surprisingly good thespian) so I think you were wise to take your stake out of the 29th March 2019 bet.