Last year Labour and Corbyn exceeded expectations, they were as a result interesting. Despite losing, people were talking about them.
Nothing interesting has happened since. Certainly nothing good. Labour has made itself invisible, irrelevant, repetitive and dull. Just sticking the phrase “the people’s “ in front of a thing is not enough.
The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
But why aren't the Lib Dems doing better? Why aren't both Labour and the Tories falling in the polls?
The Lib Dems are even less relevant and viable vehicle for opposition than Labour. They died in 2015. It’s as simple and brutal as that.
It will take a serious change of tack, fortuitous events and a lot of hard local work to bring them back. And even then they’ll probably end up having to change their name or de facto become a different party.
The LDs urgently need at least a strong second place in the Lewisham East by election next Thursday
The Holyrood results need a lot more detail to make sense. SNP support up but dropping almost double digit seats?
How much Tory -> Lib Dem unwind are you counting on in the north ?
To be honest the scale and totality of the Scottish Lib Dems to Tory switch took me by complete suprise at the last election. Made my look like a right Berk as I was adamant such a switch wouldn't happen at that scale.
An even bigger suprise to me is how no one else seems to be commenting on the mass switch.
It wasn't just Lib Dems switching - though that was very important. Alex Salmond managed to lose 8,500 votes in Gordon.
Turnout was down and the SNP voter is a lazy voter and the remainder of Fat Eck's lost vote will have gone to Labour or transferred back to the LDs where it came from.
I don't understand the fervent desire to explain everything in terms of the tiny SNP to Tory switching that took place when an absolutely massive tidal wave of LD to Tory switching occured.
What about Aberdeen South? The Lib Dems actually increased their vote there.
Aberdeen is a foreign country to me. What they do is their own business. It's all grim grey buildings and radioactivity, who knows how they think.
The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
As I keep saying maybe its something to do with the full employment that now exists in this Country. People wages are rising, they have money in their pockets. The amount of stressing about Brexit on here yesterday and what time Davis is having a meeting with May etc is really of little interest to the average person. We are currently struggling to fill apprenctice vacancies as young people are being snapped up by other firms. There are currently more jobs available than there are people to fill them. The economy is in a truly remarkable state and maybe the Government are getting some credit for that.
If you are right then all news media, print and tv and Web, now have almost no impact on people's perceptions, as the impression I get is things are terrible.
People are interested in the news if it affects them. What time TMay has a meeting with DDavis yesterday may charge people up on here but it does not affect the ordinary person who does not obsess about politics. They see job vacancy boards everywhere, everyone they know who wants a job has a job, oh and Love Island is back on.
The jobs numbers suggest that the economy is growing rather faster than current estimates suggest.
The ONS produce the biggest load of nonsense ever in their forecasts. I am sure they have an agenda rather than report the facts.
So despite endless trawling you still find every new poll backing staying in the UK in both Scotland and NI and of course the SNP is projected to use its Holyrood majority with the Greens with yougov today too
You seem a little garbled. Some punctuation and syntax please.
German immigration scandal rumbles on. Now it looks like Merkel interfered with immigration procedures ahead of the election in 2017 so that it couldn't become an issue and the chaos in the system was covered up.
German immigration scandal rumbles on. Now it looks like Merkel interfered with immigration procedures ahead of the election in 2017 so that it couldn't become an issue and the chaos in the system was covered up.
The Holyrood results need a lot more detail to make sense. SNP support up but dropping almost double digit seats?
How much Tory -> Lib Dem unwind are you counting on in the north ?
To be honest the scale and totality of the Scottish Lib Dems to Tory switch took me by complete suprise at the last election. Made my look like a right Berk as I was adamant such a switch wouldn't happen at that scale.
An even bigger suprise to me is how no one else seems to be commenting on the mass switch.
It wasn't just Lib Dems switching - though that was very important. Alex Salmond managed to lose 8,500 votes in Gordon.
Turnout was down and the SNP voter is a lazy voter and the remainder of Fat Eck's lost vote will have gone to Labour or transferred back to the LDs where it came from.
I don't understand the fervent desire to explain everything in terms of the tiny SNP to Tory switching that took place when an absolutely massive tidal wave of LD to Tory switching occured.
What about Aberdeen South? The Lib Dems actually increased their vote there.
Aberdeen is a foreign country to me. What they do is their own business. It's all grim grey buildings and radioactivity, who knows how they think.
I remember years back having to go to a BP office in Aberdeen for a meeting. Surrounded by grey 1960's tower blocks I found Gdansk back in 1985 more pleasant...
So despite endless trawling you still find every new poll backing staying in the UK in both Scotland and NI and of course the SNP is projected to use its Holyrood majority with the Greens with yougov today too
You seem a little garbled. Some punctuation and syntax please.
The Holyrood results need a lot more detail to make sense. SNP support up but dropping almost double digit seats?
How much Tory -> Lib Dem unwind are you counting on in the north ?
To be honest the scale and totality of the Scottish Lib Dems to Tory switch took me by complete suprise at the last election. Made my look like a right Berk as I was adamant such a switch wouldn't happen at that scale.
An even bigger suprise to me is how no one else seems to be commenting on the mass switch.
It wasn't just Lib Dems switching - though that was very important. Alex Salmond managed to lose 8,500 votes in Gordon.
Turnout was down and the SNP voter is a lazy voter and the remainder of Fat Eck's lost vote will have gone to Labour or transferred back to the LDs where it came from.
I don't understand the fervent desire to explain everything in terms of the tiny SNP to Tory switching that took place when an absolutely massive tidal wave of LD to Tory switching occured.
What about Aberdeen South? The Lib Dems actually increased their vote there.
Aberdeen is a foreign country to me. What they do is their own business. It's all grim grey buildings and radioactivity, who knows how they think.
I remember years back having to go to a BP office in Aberdeen for a meeting. Surrounded by grey 1960's tower blocks I found Gdansk back in 1985 more pleasant...
The only place where 1960's concrete acritecture was not only in keeping with the local area but improved the ambience.
I can't remember a more prescient sight than that on the news last night when the cameras cut between the shuffling hunch-backed Boris 'Iago' Johnson and the upright Jean Claude Juncker. It was almost biblical
Why a Scot would want to remain on this sinking Westminster ship when they had the opportunity to use the ejector button and stay with the EU is one of life's great mysteries. Up there with 'why did God create Hartlepool?'
Those ordinary folk you can't bear have to live somewhere.
I can't remember a more prescient sight than that on the news last night when the cameras cut between the shuffling hunch-backed Boris 'Iago' Johnson and the upright Jean Claude Juncker. It was almost biblical
Why a Scot would want to remain on this sinking Westminster ship when they had the opportunity to use the ejector button and stay with the EU is one of life's great mysteries. Up there with 'why did God create Hartlepool?'
So despite endless trawling you still find every new poll backing staying in the UK in both Scotland and NI and of course the SNP is projected to use its Holyrood majority with the Greens with yougov today too
You seem a little garbled. Some punctuation and syntax please.
Those are symbols of the Liberal elite!
If you join all of the full stops on Page 7 of today's Guardian it reveals a secret map showing the location of the most pretentious coffee shop in Camden.
The Holyrood results need a lot more detail to make sense. SNP support up but dropping almost double digit seats?
How much Tory -> Lib Dem unwind are you counting on in the north ?
To be honest the scale and totality of the Scottish Lib Dems to Tory switch took me by complete suprise at the last election. Made my look like a right Berk as I was adamant such a switch wouldn't happen at that scale.
An even bigger suprise to me is how no one else seems to be commenting on the mass switch.
It wasn't just Lib Dems switching - though that was very important. Alex Salmond managed to lose 8,500 votes in Gordon.
Turnout was down and the SNP voter is a lazy voter and the remainder of Fat Eck's lost vote will have gone to Labour or transferred back to the LDs where it came from.
I don't understand the fervent desire to explain everything in terms of the tiny SNP to Tory switching that took place when an absolutely massive tidal wave of LD to Tory switching occured.
What about Aberdeen South? The Lib Dems actually increased their vote there.
My guess would be there that perhaps say 4,000 Lib Dem (2010) voters stayed at home in 2015 then headed out for the Tories in 2017. Of course there was a decent chunk of Labour and UKIP vote to munch on for the Tories in Aberdeen South - though it is atypical to its rural hinterland in the strength of the Labour vote there (It has the residual Labour city vote) I've forgotten and probably didn't study linear programming at university enough to do a full Scottish switch analysis - my guess would be the number of SNP -> Tory switchers is very small though compared to SNP stay at homes.
The Holyrood results need a lot more detail to make sense. SNP support up but dropping almost double digit seats?
How much Tory -> Lib Dem unwind are you counting on in the north ?
To be honest the scale and totality of the Scottish Lib Dems to Tory switch took me by complete suprise at the last election. Made my look like a right Berk as I was adamant such a switch wouldn't happen at that scale.
An even bigger suprise to me is how no one else seems to be commenting on the mass switch.
It wasn't just Lib Dems switching - though that was very important. Alex Salmond managed to lose 8,500 votes in Gordon.
Turnout was down and the SNP voter is a lazy voter and the remainder of Fat Eck's lost vote will have gone to Labour or transferred back to the LDs where it came from.
I don't understand the fervent desire to explain everything in terms of the tiny SNP to Tory switching that took place when an absolutely massive tidal wave of LD to Tory switching occured.
What about Aberdeen South? The Lib Dems actually increased their vote there.
My guess would be there that perhaps say 4,000 Lib Dem (2010) voters stayed at home in 2015 then headed out for the Tories in 2017. Of course there was a decent chunk of Labour and UKIP vote to munch on for the Tories in Aberdeen South - though it is atypical to its rural hinterland in the strength of the Labour vote there (It has the residual Labour city vote) I've forgotten and probably didn't study linear programming at university enough to do a full Scottish switch analysis - my guess would be the number of SNP -> Tory switchers is very small though compared to SNP stay at homes.
I'm not saying your analysis is wrong, but I reckon you'd have been laughed at on here had you said this is what will happen before the election. It's a bit like the Tories banking Ukip voters.
Credit to SeanT for making the final "controversial" point at least a year ago. Brexit has killed Scottish Independence for a generation at least. This sort of change now looks too big, too hard and too risky.
Surely it depends on what happens with Brexit.
Some counter-factuals are more credible than others.
What a perfect time for May to sack the Brexit Bulldog and Boris
Give it a few days, but now is probably the right time to sack Davis.
Thinking about it, why does May need the Brexit bastards in the cabinet at all? They would be largely impotent on the back benches.
Two reasons, one more base than the other. First is that if the Leave campaign (as was) is running Brexit, they can't complain. Second is that they can trigger a leadership challenge that Theresa May would almost certainly lose.
What a perfect time for May to sack the Brexit Bulldog and Boris
Give it a few days, but now is probably the right time to sack Davis.
Thinking about it, why does May need the Brexit bastards in the cabinet at all? They would be largely impotent on the back benches.
Two reasons, one more base than the other. First is that if the Leave campaign (as was) is running Brexit, they can't complain. Second is that they can trigger a leadership challenge that Theresa May would almost certainly lose.
On the first point, that clearly didn’t work. All they do is complain.
Secondly, are we sure. If May kept Gove, Javid onside . Would the hard nuts get the numbers?
I can't remember a more prescient sight than that on the news last night when the cameras cut between the shuffling hunch-backed Boris 'Iago' Johnson and the upright Jean Claude Juncker. It was almost biblical
Why a Scot would want to remain on this sinking Westminster ship when they had the opportunity to use the ejector button and stay with the EU is one of life's great mysteries. Up there with 'why did God create Hartlepool?'
Those ordinary folk you can't bear have to live somewhere.
Aren't they all on the Costa Brava?
Nope - maybe Costa Blanca or possibly the Côte d'Azur now it's gotten so tacky.
What a perfect time for May to sack the Brexit Bulldog and Boris
Give it a few days, but now is probably the right time to sack Davis.
Thinking about it, why does May need the Brexit bastards in the cabinet at all? They would be largely impotent on the back benches.
Two reasons, one more base than the other. First is that if the Leave campaign (as was) is running Brexit, they can't complain. Second is that they can trigger a leadership challenge that Theresa May would almost certainly lose.
On the first point, that clearly didn’t work. All they do is complain.
Secondly, are we sure. If May kept Gove, Javid onside . Would the hard nuts get the numbers?
Except of course they are not running Brexit. May is. A Remainer.
What a perfect time for May to sack the Brexit Bulldog and Boris
Give it a few days, but now is probably the right time to sack Davis.
Thinking about it, why does May need the Brexit bastards in the cabinet at all? They would be largely impotent on the back benches.
Two reasons, one more base than the other. First is that if the Leave campaign (as was) is running Brexit, they can't complain. Second is that they can trigger a leadership challenge that Theresa May would almost certainly lose.
On the first point, that clearly didn’t work. All they do is complain.
Secondly, are we sure. If May kept Gove, Javid onside . Would the hard nuts get the numbers?
Triggering a challenge has a fairly low threshold (48 iirc) and once that is done, everyone can throw their hat into the ring.
What a perfect time for May to sack the Brexit Bulldog and Boris
Give it a few days, but now is probably the right time to sack Davis.
Thinking about it, why does May need the Brexit bastards in the cabinet at all? They would be largely impotent on the back benches.
Two reasons, one more base than the other. First is that if the Leave campaign (as was) is running Brexit, they can't complain. Second is that they can trigger a leadership challenge that Theresa May would almost certainly lose.
On the first point, that clearly didn’t work. All they do is complain.
Secondly, are we sure. If May kept Gove, Javid onside . Would the hard nuts get the numbers?
Except of course they are not running Brexit. May is. A Remainer.
Given their performance on Brexit , May has nothing to fear from a Boris/Davis/Fox leadership challenge .
What a perfect time for May to sack the Brexit Bulldog and Boris
Give it a few days, but now is probably the right time to sack Davis.
Thinking about it, why does May need the Brexit bastards in the cabinet at all? They would be largely impotent on the back benches.
Two reasons, one more base than the other. First is that if the Leave campaign (as was) is running Brexit, they can't complain. Second is that they can trigger a leadership challenge that Theresa May would almost certainly lose.
On the first point, that clearly didn’t work. All they do is complain.
Secondly, are we sure. If May kept Gove, Javid onside . Would the hard nuts get the numbers?
Except of course they are not running Brexit. May is. A Remainer.
Given their performance on Brexit , May has nothing to fear from a Boris/Davis/Fox leadership challenge .
All she has to do is keep Gove and Javid.
The PM has everything to fear. It won't be a head-to-head May vs Boris. Every Cabinet Minister with a pulse will enter, and maybe prominent backbenchers like Jacob Rees-Mogg as well.
We don't know who will win. We do know who will lose.
What a perfect time for May to sack the Brexit Bulldog and Boris
Give it a few days, but now is probably the right time to sack Davis.
Thinking about it, why does May need the Brexit bastards in the cabinet at all? They would be largely impotent on the back benches.
Two reasons, one more base than the other. First is that if the Leave campaign (as was) is running Brexit, they can't complain. Second is that they can trigger a leadership challenge that Theresa May would almost certainly lose.
On the first point, that clearly didn’t work. All they do is complain.
Secondly, are we sure. If May kept Gove, Javid onside . Would the hard nuts get the numbers?
Except of course they are not running Brexit. May is. A Remainer.
Given their performance on Brexit , May has nothing to fear from a Boris/Davis/Fox leadership challenge .
All she has to do is keep Gove and Javid.
The PM has everything to fear. It won't be a head-to-head May vs Boris. Every Cabinet Minister with a pulse will enter, and maybe prominent backbenchers like Jacob Rees-Mogg as well.
We don't know who will win. We do know who will lose.
I am not sure that matters. I was under the impression that if May loses a confidence vote of her MPs she is barred from standing again in the subsequent election anyway.
Does Canada really stick a 300% tariff on US dairy ?
Yes but it is not specific to American milk -- it is just that everyone else is too far away.
It hasn't received much press compared to Trump's steel tarriffs. On a more general point, absolutes rather than changes ought to be more closely examined.
Does Canada really stick a 300% tariff on US dairy ?
Yes but it is not specific to American milk -- it is just that everyone else is too far away.
It hasn't received much press compared to Trump's steel tarriffs. On a more general point, absolutes rather than changes ought to be more closely examined.
You'd expect this to be bigger news in the American dairy states and their Canadian equivalents. Other than that, it is just one of Trump's complaints about NAFTA. Is it news here? Not really. It is not even new, and Canada's a long way away.
Does Canada really stick a 300% tariff on US dairy ?
Yes but it is not specific to American milk -- it is just that everyone else is too far away.
It hasn't received much press compared to Trump's steel tarriffs. On a more general point, absolutes rather than changes ought to be more closely examined.
The list of Canadian tariffs in response to Trump's Steel and Aluminium tariffs is very extensive.
The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
I think that's right. None of Labour's main issues have been prominent for months except the secondary one of rail, and the domination of Brexit has made the story all about alternative varieties of Tory. Labour's cautious line may avoid losing votes but doesn't get any significant media attention, except the occasional "split" story as people argue about it.
I think you might be underestimating the impact of Corbyn's Brexit stance on many potential Labour voters. I think it is only now really dawning on some people how pro-Brexit he really is.
You will probably say that he isn't really interested in Brexit one one or the other, you may be right. Unfortunately many Labour supporters are very interested. My take is that he is anti-EU but doesn't say much because he knows he is out of step with a large majority of Labour's voters and members.
The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
I think that's right. None of Labour's main issues have been prominent for months except the secondary one of rail, and the domination of Brexit has made the story all about alternative varieties of Tory. Labour's cautious line may avoid losing votes but doesn't get any significant media attention, except the occasional "split" story as people argue about it.
I think you might be underestimating the impact of Corbyn's Brexit stance on many potential Labour voters. I think it is only now really dawning on some people how pro-Brexit he really is.
You will probably say that he isn't really interested in Brexit one one or the other, you may be right. Unfortunately many Labour supporters are very interested. My take is that he is anti-EU but doesn't say much because he knows he is out of step with a large majority of Labour's voters and members.
But then why aren't those voters flocking to the Lib Dems?
On the surface the LibDems look to be static. 98 LibDems in today's weighted sample. 99 voted LibDem in 2017.
But the LibDems lost a net 15 to the Tories and gained a net 15 from Labour leaving them basically all square. Small sample of course. Why would they be losing to the Tories and gaining from Labour? If it is true, it explains 1% point of the gain in Tory share and loss in Labour share.
Well given the Tories have become the part of remain who would be surprised by that?
Tory Remain Voters gain
Well at the moment Tories are holding on Leavers and gaining Remainers.
Leave voters haven't realized they are being sold down the river and there's no genuine Brexit Party to vote for at the moment anyway,
I'm sure both those things won't last much longer...
Leave voters currently have nowhere to go.
In which case they simply won't vote.
I'd suggest that for most 'Leave' (and 'Remain') voters, Brexit is not their sole reason for voting in a GE, and for many it's not likely to be in the top half-a-dozen reasons for voting.
The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
I think that's right. None of Labour's main issues have been prominent for months except the secondary one of rail, and the domination of Brexit has made the story all about alternative varieties of Tory. Labour's cautious line may avoid losing votes but doesn't get any significant media attention, except the occasional "split" story as people argue about it.
I think you might be underestimating the impact of Corbyn's Brexit stance on many potential Labour voters. I think it is only now really dawning on some people how pro-Brexit he really is.
You will probably say that he isn't really interested in Brexit one one or the other, you may be right. Unfortunately many Labour supporters are very interested. My take is that he is anti-EU but doesn't say much because he knows he is out of step with a large majority of Labour's voters and members.
But then why aren't those voters flocking to the Lib Dems?
The Lib Dems are simply not in the news anymore. I remember the days when Ming Campbell or Vince Cable were on Newsnight everynight commenting on the latest economic problem. That does not happen anymore so they have become irrelevant nationally except for here in Eastleigh where the local Council is as yellow as a rapeseed field.
Well given the Tories have become the part of remain who would be surprised by that?
Tory Remain Voters gain
Well at the moment Tories are holding on Leavers and gaining Remainers.
Leave voters haven't realized they are being sold down the river and there's no genuine Brexit Party to vote for at the moment anyway,
I'm sure both those things won't last much longer...
Leave voters currently have nowhere to go.
In which case they simply won't vote.
I'd suggest that for most 'Leave' (and 'Remain') voters, Brexit is not their sole reason for voting in a GE, and for many it's not likely to be in the top half-a-dozen reasons for voting.
We are an odd Brexit-obsessed minority on PB.
That is very true. The question is how large that admittedly small minority is for whom it does matter. It really doesn't need many votes to tip things one way or another.
The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
I think that's right. None of Labour's main issues have been prominent for months except the secondary one of rail, and the domination of Brexit has made the story all about alternative varieties of Tory. Labour's cautious line may avoid losing votes but doesn't get any significant media attention, except the occasional "split" story as people argue about it.
I think you might be underestimating the impact of Corbyn's Brexit stance on many potential Labour voters. I think it is only now really dawning on some people how pro-Brexit he really is.
You will probably say that he isn't really interested in Brexit one one or the other, you may be right. Unfortunately many Labour supporters are very interested. My take is that he is anti-EU but doesn't say much because he knows he is out of step with a large majority of Labour's voters and members.
But then why aren't those voters flocking to the Lib Dems?
Because it ain't that straightforward. I am an ex Labour member who would not currently vote for Corbyn because of his Brexit stance. I simply didn't vote in 2017 and won't vote next time if things remain unchanged. If we had a fair election system I might be tempted to "flock" to the Lib Dems.
Well given the Tories have become the part of remain who would be surprised by that?
Tory Remain Voters gain
Well at the moment Tories are holding on Leavers and gaining Remainers.
Leave voters haven't realized they are being sold down the river and there's no genuine Brexit Party to vote for at the moment anyway,
I'm sure both those things won't last much longer...
Leave voters currently have nowhere to go.
In which case they simply won't vote.
I'd suggest that for most 'Leave' (and 'Remain') voters, Brexit is not their sole reason for voting in a GE, and for many it's not likely to be in the top half-a-dozen reasons for voting.
We are an odd Brexit-obsessed minority on PB.
In Scotland the SNP lost the vote on independence but did not disappear as expected but got stronger. Labour and Lib Dems dithered and the Tories took a big chunk of the unionist vote. This allowed them to move from the 4th party in Scotland to a strong 2nd.
I am surprised that the Lib Dems have not done better so far in England. Their position is logical.
Haha, very good. However, I do think we should tax all food calories - to help pay for the cost of obesity on health services. Not just sugar, all calories. It would be easy to implement since pretty much all food has to display its calories now.
This latest YG poll has had an impact on the EMA (latest poll always gets 10% weighting).
Using Electoral calculus puts Tories 7 short of a majority.
Con 319 (+1 on 2017) Lab 255 (-7) LD 16 (+4)
Con gain Crewe. Dudley N, Kensington, Newcastle-U-Lyme from labour. Con lose Richmond Park, St Ives to LDs. LDs gain Ceredigion and Fife NE from Nats SNP gain Stirling from Con.
On the surface the LibDems look to be static. 98 LibDems in today's weighted sample. 99 voted LibDem in 2017.
But the LibDems lost a net 15 to the Tories and gained a net 15 from Labour leaving them basically all square. Small sample of course. Why would they be losing to the Tories and gaining from Labour? If it is true, it explains 1% point of the gain in Tory share and loss in Labour share.
I think quite a lot of LD voters are actually quite eurosceptic outside metropolitania.
Haha, very good. However, I do think we should tax all food calories - to help pay for the cost of obesity on health services. Not just sugar, all calories. It would be easy to implement since pretty much all food has to display its calories now.
All packaged food. Fresh food doesn't have to - but that could be a good exemption then.
However there's "good" and "bad" calories.
EDIT: Sadly while your idea is reasonable in theory I can just imagine it won't be long before some nanny from the other extreme starts screaming about how the government is encouraging bulimia and anorexia.
BoJo is completely right, of course. A Mad Hatter approach - fuck you, we're capable of anything, look I have a knife, and I will cut off my own testicles, AND your nose, HAH - would have been better than May's cautious, turgid, idiotic Red Line which is then immediately crossed approach.
The EU is mugging us. If a blade-flashing mugger is about to mug you, the best bet is to make yourself look so loony and weird and dangerous he think it ain't worth the uncertainty and risk: is he armed too? Why is he acting so strangely? (...)
We should have Trumped the EU. Too late now.
You're buying in to Trump's self-description. He went bankrupt several times. It won't end well.
There is something in the mugging hypothesis but I view it from a different angle. In the run-up to "Dave's Deal" I formed the impression that there were forces in the EU that wanted Britain out. They were pissed off by the City of London's efforts on the continent. When they grinned and said they wanted Britain to stay in, many were lying. The British elite, who think they are experts in every kind of irony worth using, don't realise when they're getting the piss taken out of them.
There is now a blatant mugging effort against Britain by the US government in trade. In the past, the US has mugged Britain to send soldiers to fight against countries that are no threat to Britain. As PM Blair had responsibility but that doesn't mean he wasn't obeying orders. Earlier Britain was even mugged into helping the US develop the atom bomb. Joining NATO was a sign of weakness.
The assumption of the British elite's superiority prevents the recognition that Britain is getting walloped in international relations. Lose in the negotiating room and there are always nukes, right? Haha, said the ostrich. What a crap "joke". But we've heard it several times.
What do you mean by "too late now"?
And can you specify some British testicles that Britain can threaten to cut off? When I did, Richard Tyndall said I was coming over as "utterly deranged". They include peace in Ireland, British sovereignty over NI, British sovereignty over Scotland, and uninterrupted food supply:
I do wonder how far the Brexit lunacy can go. When the present stage of dogwhistling stops, the following will take its place:
* F*** the Irish border; we want Brexit; * F*** empty shelves in Aldi and Lidl; we want Brexit; * F*** whether or not we keep NI; we want Brexit; * F*** whether or not we keep Scotland; we want Brexit; * F*** a collapse of the food and retail banking systems; everyone who's anyone has got a home or three abroad; * F*** the left, the chavs, schoolteachers, and gentlemen of a Windrush and Oriental persuasion; we're going to remove kebab.
Then there's the question of what will serve as the EU's "nose". The most available "nose" has got to be in the financial system somewhere.
Well Trump grabbed 'em by the p**** and got away with it...
Trump supporters don't care, but Trudeau supporters really will.
Thing is, it is or was in the public domain when it happened,and he apologised for it then. There is I think an element of double jeopardy about dragging it up again to accuse him, even though, as the Buzzfeed article points out, that he says politicians should be responsible for their actions whenever they happened.
Haha, very good. However, I do think we should tax all food calories - to help pay for the cost of obesity on health services. Not just sugar, all calories. It would be easy to implement since pretty much all food has to display its calories now.
I find it odd that the Tories are increasing their poll lead, if polls are to be believed. They seem to me to be an absolute shower but maybe most people don’t follow the ins and outs much.
One word of caution though: Corbyn is a good campaigner and quite shameless when it comes to offering all sorts of goodies as we saw last year so even if the polls are right now we should not assume that they will stay this way during a GE. And by then something will have happened with Brexit, though I haven’t the faintest idea what.
Anyway well done to @JosiasJessop for his walks, though he should really get to the Lakes. Some wonderful walks here.
And thanks too to @AlistairM for his header the other day. It may be true that a lot of jobs are in London but the very concentration of stuff in London makes it also a very difficult city to live in - high rents for not much space, everything is more expensive, stress etc. It is one reason why my recently graduated daughter is looking for work elsewhere, which has its own challenges of course. I do not think it healthy for a country to have such an overconcentration of wealth and opportunity in one place.
On the first poll: people in NI will vote to keep the NHS. Shocker.
On the second: one begins to despair when so many people think the Scottish economy would fare better under independence. Many are reasoning that Brexit will be such a shambles that Scotland should stay out of it, of course, but they are too stupid to realise what having Scotland inside the CU and England outside would do to Scotland. I wonder how many realise that an independent Scotland inside the EU would NOT control its own borders, and would NOT be allowed to trade freely with England? (Nor, when jungle-like settlements built up north of the Tweed, would they be able to demand successfully that England open its borders.) Many Scottish nationalists are so infantile and drunk on sunshine that they don't realise EU membership brings responsibilities.
You can almost hear a few very well-connected people in both NI and Scotland salivating at the thought of benefiting from the opportunities that Armageddon will bring.
J. Forsyth: The disconnect between the mood at Westminster, where nearly all Tories--regardless of where they stand on Brexit--are very worried, and the polls is really quite striking
We await Justin, Surby and other Labour analysis with interest. Not much sign here of the Scottish Corbyn breakthrough we heard so much about a few months ago.
Polls in Scotland have been overstating SNP support levels for several years now. Also the crossbreak for Scotland in the most recent national poll came up with SNP 38 Lab 30 Con 26.
Haha, very good. However, I do think we should tax all food calories - to help pay for the cost of obesity on health services. Not just sugar, all calories. It would be easy to implement since pretty much all food has to display its calories now.
All packaged food. Fresh food doesn't have to - but that could be a good exemption then.
However there's "good" and "bad" calories.
EDIT: Sadly while your idea is reasonable in theory I can just imagine it won't be long before some nanny from the other extreme starts screaming about how the government is encouraging bulimia and anorexia.
I like your fresh food exemption. I agree some calorie dense foods (olive oil?) are better than others (white sugar) but to keep it simple just tax all calories the same.
Maybe some of the funds raised could go to boost support for eating disorders.
A tax of 0.1p per kCal would raise about £64bn pa and cost each person £2.70 per day if I have got my maths right. (Edit: a bit less given the fresh food exemption.)
Comments
Nothing interesting has happened since. Certainly nothing good. Labour has made itself invisible, irrelevant, repetitive and dull. Just sticking the phrase “the people’s “ in front of a thing is not enough.
Has Corbyn surprised in any way? No.
I’m sure it will give Theresa May cause to double down on her LEO (low earth orbit) Brexit.
German immigration scandal rumbles on. Now it looks like Merkel interfered with immigration procedures ahead of the election in 2017 so that it couldn't become an issue and the chaos in the system was covered up.
May might yet outlast Merkel
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article177175036/Wie-das-BAMF-der-Kanzlerin-den-Wahlsieg-sichern-sollte.html
Capacity is only a few hundred so they have an easier task than Jezzfest.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2018/06/08/97001-20180608FILWWW00039-les-jeunes-consomment-trop-de-tabac-alcool-porno-et-jeux-videos.php
makes our teetotal abstinent lot look a bunch of dweebs
Of course there was a decent chunk of Labour and UKIP vote to munch on for the Tories in Aberdeen South - though it is atypical to its rural hinterland in the strength of the Labour vote there (It has the residual Labour city vote)
I've forgotten and probably didn't study linear programming at university enough to do a full Scottish switch analysis - my guess would be the number of SNP -> Tory switchers is very small though compared to SNP stay at homes.
Give it a few days, but now is probably the right time to sack Davis.
Thinking about it, why does May need the Brexit bastards in the cabinet at all? They would be largely impotent on the back benches.
time to bring out the balaclavas and liven things up
Secondly, are we sure. If May kept Gove, Javid onside . Would the hard nuts get the numbers?
https://twitter.com/buzzfeednews/status/1005011046413856769?s=21
All she has to do is keep Gove and Javid.
German industrial production down 1% MoM, yearly growth down to just 2%. Construction down by 6.9% YoY. French industrial production down 0.5% MoM.
The Eurozone recovery turned out to be very short indeed.
We don't know who will win. We do know who will lose.
Well given the Tories have become the part of remain who would be surprised by that?
Voters flock
Voters gain
Brexit will end up as a boon for the Tories. You heard it here first.
Leave voters haven't realized they are being sold down the river and there's no genuine Brexit Party to vote for at the moment anyway,
I'm sure both those things won't last much longer...
GE17 anecdata was from the southwest (@Marqueemark) and Owls in Derbyshire, two areas the Tories did well in.
http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/nafta-u-s-demands-end-to-supply-management-in-canadian-dairy-poultry-eggs
You'd expect this to be bigger news in the American dairy states and their Canadian equivalents. Other than that, it is just one of Trump's complaints about NAFTA. Is it news here? Not really. It is not even new, and Canada's a long way away.
https://www.fin.gc.ca/activty/consult/cacsap-cmpcaa-eng.asp?ref=patrick.net
Not just all the straight forward like for like stuff in Table 1 but all the other stuff in Table 2.
You will probably say that he isn't really interested in Brexit one one or the other, you may be right. Unfortunately many Labour supporters are very interested. My take is that he is anti-EU but doesn't say much because he knows he is out of step with a large majority of Labour's voters and members.
On the surface the LibDems look to be static. 98 LibDems in today's weighted sample. 99 voted LibDem in 2017.
But the LibDems lost a net 15 to the Tories and gained a net 15 from Labour leaving them basically all square. Small sample of course. Why would they be losing to the Tories and gaining from Labour? If it is true, it explains 1% point of the gain in Tory share and loss in Labour share.
We are an odd Brexit-obsessed minority on PB.
I think he knows his time is past, and he's just trying to stay relevent,
Polling will get worse for him going forward...
That said, Wollaston's a hectoring nanny state puritanical meddler. She's not exactly a splendid advert for the party herself. As a silly commentator suggested:
https://twitter.com/HeroOfHornska/status/1003550076097134592
I am surprised that the Lib Dems have not done better so far in England. Their position is logical.
Using Electoral calculus puts Tories 7 short of a majority.
Con 319 (+1 on 2017)
Lab 255 (-7)
LD 16 (+4)
Con gain Crewe. Dudley N, Kensington, Newcastle-U-Lyme from labour.
Con lose Richmond Park, St Ives to LDs.
LDs gain Ceredigion and Fife NE from Nats
SNP gain Stirling from Con.
However there's "good" and "bad" calories.
EDIT: Sadly while your idea is reasonable in theory I can just imagine it won't be long before some nanny from the other extreme starts screaming about how the government is encouraging bulimia and anorexia.
There is something in the mugging hypothesis but I view it from a different angle. In the run-up to "Dave's Deal" I formed the impression that there were forces in the EU that wanted Britain out. They were pissed off by the City of London's efforts on the continent. When they grinned and said they wanted Britain to stay in, many were lying. The British elite, who think they are experts in every kind of irony worth using, don't realise when they're getting the piss taken out of them.
There is now a blatant mugging effort against Britain by the US government in trade. In the past, the US has mugged Britain to send soldiers to fight against countries that are no threat to Britain. As PM Blair had responsibility but that doesn't mean he wasn't obeying orders. Earlier Britain was even mugged into helping the US develop the atom bomb. Joining NATO was a sign of weakness.
The assumption of the British elite's superiority prevents the recognition that Britain is getting walloped in international relations. Lose in the negotiating room and there are always nukes, right? Haha, said the ostrich. What a crap "joke". But we've heard it several times.
What do you mean by "too late now"?
And can you specify some British testicles that Britain can threaten to cut off? When I did, Richard Tyndall said I was coming over as "utterly deranged". They include peace in Ireland, British sovereignty over NI, British sovereignty over Scotland, and uninterrupted food supply: Then there's the question of what will serve as the EU's "nose". The most available "nose" has got to be in the financial system somewhere.
https://twitter.com/james_bowley/status/1005004611525271553
I find it odd that the Tories are increasing their poll lead, if polls are to be believed. They seem to me to be an absolute shower but maybe most people don’t follow the ins and outs much.
One word of caution though: Corbyn is a good campaigner and quite shameless when it comes to offering all sorts of goodies as we saw last year so even if the polls are right now we should not assume that they will stay this way during a GE. And by then something will have happened with Brexit, though I haven’t the faintest idea what.
Anyway well done to @JosiasJessop for his walks, though he should really get to the Lakes. Some wonderful walks here.
And thanks too to @AlistairM for his header the other day. It may be true that a lot of jobs are in London but the very concentration of stuff in London makes it also a very difficult city to live in - high rents for not much space, everything is more expensive, stress etc. It is one reason why my recently graduated daughter is looking for work elsewhere, which has its own challenges of course. I do not think it healthy for a country to have such an overconcentration of wealth and opportunity in one place.
On the second: one begins to despair when so many people think the Scottish economy would fare better under independence. Many are reasoning that Brexit will be such a shambles that Scotland should stay out of it, of course, but they are too stupid to realise what having Scotland inside the CU and England outside would do to Scotland. I wonder how many realise that an independent Scotland inside the EU would NOT control its own borders, and would NOT be allowed to trade freely with England? (Nor, when jungle-like settlements built up north of the Tweed, would they be able to demand successfully that England open its borders.) Many Scottish nationalists are so infantile and drunk on sunshine that they don't realise EU membership brings responsibilities.
You can almost hear a few very well-connected people in both NI and Scotland salivating at the thought of benefiting from the opportunities that Armageddon will bring.
Whisper it - the pundits have not got a clue.
Maybe some of the funds raised could go to boost support for eating disorders.
A tax of 0.1p per kCal would raise about £64bn pa and cost each person £2.70 per day if I have got my maths right. (Edit: a bit less given the fresh food exemption.)
Young people are annoying at the best of times but can you imagine the type of self-regarding prick that goes to a thing like that?