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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those who think the SNP are a busted flush might be surprised

SystemSystem Posts: 12,255
edited June 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those who think the SNP are a busted flush might be surprised by the latest YouGov Scotland poll as Labour set to be reduced to just 1 Scottish MP, again

New @YouGov Scotland poll for @thetimesscot. https://t.co/P1mDnCQ5lQ pic.twitter.com/8K8yJFmC1u

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    We await Justin, Surby and other Labour analysis with interest. Not much sign here of the Scottish Corbyn breakthrough we heard so much about a few months ago.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,258
    On the final point, do we think an effort would have been made to stop Scottish Independence had they voted for it? Or would Westminster have been expected to play nice? I always thought that was the one scenario where Ukip could have done very well in 2015.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Are we expecting Theresa May to call a snap election?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,133
    felix said:

    We await Justin, Surby and other Labour analysis with interest. Not much sign here of the Scottish Corbyn breakthrough we heard so much about a few months ago.

    Titters....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,133
    Corbs down 27 points? Just a flesh wound!
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we expecting Theresa May to call a snap election?

    No - what she wants is BINO, to be achieved sotto voce - Bojo has let the cat out of the bag.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,130
    edited June 2018
    I don't think in practice Brexit or Scexit is impossible or even especially difficult Domenic in the right way. It's that ridiculous and artificial time limit that's causing the problems. Most successful divergences happen gradually after years if not decades of preparation. To put it in context, Canada had the trappings of statehood from 1867, New Zealand from 1888 and Australia from 1901, it they didn't get actual statehood until 1931 and still had close economic ties to Britain down to the 1970s. In the case of Canada and New Zealand, that's over a century to achieve divergence. Even on the most optimistic view Ireland took 25 years, arguably 63.

    That's not to say our incompetence or the mendacity of Barnier and his drunken Fascist puppet master haven't made matters more difficult than they would have been otherwise, but if Scotland is to go independent they need to realise the lesson of Brexit is it is a process not an event.

    May might be trying to sort this with the EU to without their realising it (because let's face it people who believe Selmayr is an intellectual ain't up to much in the brain stakes) to avoid serious mutual harm, but even if that is her aim and it's not basic incompetence it clearly isn't working.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    daodao said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we expecting Theresa May to call a snap election?

    No - what she wants is BINO, to be achieved sotto voce - Bojo has let the cat out of the bag.
    Correct - and to give her credit this would be an accurate reflexion of a close result. The country is bored of the whole thing - neither the politicians nor the pundits reflect anything much beyond the village. May is not a great leader and possibly perfect for the times we are in.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 666
    edited June 2018
    One of my swim team a young teacher just announced last night that she has quit her job and is going to Spain to work at a private school for less money. She mentioned Brexit and the general sxxt culture as the reason. The political discussion that followed showed a general gloom. The Scots think the English are talking to themselves as usual, ignoring everyone else and up their own a**e. In this environment only strong Scots will be supported.

    The Ruth Davidson factor is still an important part of the final Brexit outcome. Without her support the Scottish Tory mps will not vote for the deal. People vote conservative here for Ruth and the union not for Brexit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,068
    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting thought. We do often bang on about the rubbishness of the blue/red leadership, and this does rather tally with that.

    F1: Canadian first practice is today, but starts at 3pm. Qualifying/race times, I think, are 7pm. Not sure but I think that's later than it has been usually. Hope it finishes on time so I can watch Supermodels of SHIELD.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,704
    hamiltonace said:

    One of my swim team a young teacher just announced last night that she has quit her job and is going to Spain to work at a private school for less money. She mentioned Brexit and the general sxxt culture as the reason. The political discussion that followed showed a general gloom. The Scots think the English are talking to themselves as usual, ignoring everyone else and up their own a**e. In this environment only strong Scots will be supported.

    The Ruth Davidson factor is still an important part of the final Brexit outcome. Without her support the Scottish Tory mps will not vote for the deal. People vote conservative here for Ruth and the union not for Brexit.

    LOL, Davidson is a Westminster puppet, she will jump when told and only ask how high, her sole concern is herself. Sooner she is down in the cesspit the better for Scotland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    This is actually a bad poll for the SNP above all, not only do they face the prospect of losing their majority with the Greens at Holyrood there is no support for indyref2 either now or post Brexit.

    Labour is actually projected to gain MSPs at Holyrood alongside the Tories and although they will lose some MPs to the SNP that is pretty much irrelevant to Corbyn as SNP MPs will still vote for a Corbyn government over a Tory government anyway
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Looks to me like the Scots have got this polling stuff pretty well sussed.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Anazina said:

    Elliot said:

    David Davis is the victor of the hour, it seems, writes BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44398130

    A typically bizarre analysis by the increasingly outlandish Kuenssberg.

    The wording on the date is as watertight as a pair of fishnet stockings.

    Good night.
    As I said last night, the political reality is as important as the legal one. Conservative party members have been told being shackled to the EU tariff schedule is a temporary one. In the next leadership debate, every candidate will be asked to commit to that. Any that do not will lose the members' vote. What is interesting is how early in the next parliament the date is. That allows for another delay but it will certainly happen in the next parliament if Corbyn is defeated.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    I reckon the experience of the Brexit negotiations will significantly weaken the case for Scottish independence. The reality of how the senior power holds all the cards in such a process has been made all too clear.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,316
    tlg86 said:

    On the final point, do we think an effort would have been made to stop Scottish Independence had they voted for it? Or would Westminster have been expected to play nice? I always thought that was the one scenario where Ukip could have done very well in 2015.

    I reckon the 2016 Holyrood election would have become a way of overturning a Yes victory if the Unionist candidates stood on such a policy and won a majority.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    ydoethur said:

    I don't think in practice Brexit or Scexit is impossible or even especially difficult Domenic in the right way. It's that ridiculous and artificial time limit that's causing the problems. Most successful divergences happen gradually after years if not decades of preparation. To put it in context, Canada had the trappings of statehood from 1867, New Zealand from 1888 and Australia from 1901, it they didn't get actual statehood until 1931 and still had close economic ties to Britain down to the 1970s. In the case of Canada and New Zealand, that's over a century to achieve divergence. Even on the most optimistic view Ireland took 25 years, arguably 63.

    That's not to say our incompetence or the mendacity of Barnier and his drunken Fascist puppet master haven't made matters more difficult than they would have been otherwise, but if Scotland is to go independent they need to realise the lesson of Brexit is it is a process not an event.

    May might be trying to sort this with the EU to without their realising it (because let's face it people who believe Selmayr is an intellectual ain't up to much in the brain stakes) to avoid serious mutual harm, but even if that is her aim and it's not basic incompetence it clearly isn't working.

    The timescale is definitely the problem, not Brexit. You are quite right there. The trouble is that you can only sustain a long term project to leave the EU if it is genuinely unpopular. I don't think it is. Slow down the process and it will lose steam.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    tlg86 said:

    On the final point, do we think an effort would have been made to stop Scottish Independence had they voted for it? Or would Westminster have been expected to play nice? I always thought that was the one scenario where Ukip could have done very well in 2015.

    In the hypothetical situation where Scotland did the decent thing and voted for Independence in 2014 Cameron would obviously have resigned within a nanosecond of the result, but who would have become Con leader? And how big would have Ed Miliband's majority have been?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,331
    ydoethur said:

    I don't think in practice Brexit or Scexit is impossible or even especially difficult Domenic in the right way. It's that ridiculous and artificial time limit that's causing the problems. Most successful divergences happen gradually after years if not decades of preparation. To put it in context, Canada had the trappings of statehood from 1867, New Zealand from 1888 and Australia from 1901, it they didn't get actual statehood until 1931 and still had close economic ties to Britain down to the 1970s. In the case of Canada and New Zealand, that's over a century to achieve divergence. Even on the most optimistic view Ireland took 25 years, arguably 63.

    That's not to say our incompetence or the mendacity of Barnier and his drunken Fascist puppet master haven't made matters more difficult than they would have been otherwise, but if Scotland is to go independent they need to realise the lesson of Brexit is it is a process not an event.

    May might be trying to sort this with the EU to without their realising it (because let's face it people who believe Selmayr is an intellectual ain't up to much in the brain stakes) to avoid serious mutual harm, but even if that is her aim and it's not basic incompetence it clearly isn't working.

    You're comparing apples (colonies that transition to independence) with oranges (sovereign nations that enter into a union with other nations and then decide to leave that union).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,208
    Clearly a good poll for the SNP, much better than they have been doing of late. It is hard not to see the chaos and uncertainty with which our government is dealing with Brexit as a factor in that. Confidence in Westminster is being affected, particularly amongst remain voters.

    The main problem Labour have is the invisibility of Mr Leonard. It really is something when 54% of the people asked don't know whether he is doing a good job of running what was until fairly recently the most powerful party in Scotland. With Nicola and Ruth so well established it is a very difficult task to become the go to person for the media who want an opinion but he does not seem to even try. So far he has been a disaster.

    What the Westminster result also shows is that there are a very large number of seats between the SNP and Labour which are on a knife edge. Relatively small swings can result in so many seats changing hands it has national, let alone Scottish, implications. The number of Labour seats could fall back to 1 or increase to 20 at the next election. Interesting times.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    hamiltonace said:

    . People vote conservative here for Ruth and the union not for Brexit.

    Must be a huge coincidence that all the most Brexity fishing communities of the NE swung to the Conservatives then.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Interesting poll - I wonder why Labour and Corbyn have both nosedived in Scotland while remaining broadly stable in the rest of GB?

    Incidentally, the Ontario results show another dose of both populism and polarisation, with the centrist government almost squeezed out of existence:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/08/ontario-election-results-populist-doug-ford-to-become-premier

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,068
    F1: Ricciardo won't have a grid penalty after all. Managed to replace a broken part with a previously used one:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/44407342
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,537
    hamiltonace said:

    One of my swim team a young teacher just announced last night that she has quit her job and is going to Spain to work at a private school for less money. She mentioned Brexit and the general sxxt culture as the reason. The political discussion that followed showed a general gloom. The Scots think the English are talking to themselves as usual, ignoring everyone else and up their own a**e. In this environment only strong Scots will be supported.

    The Ruth Davidson factor is still an important part of the final Brexit outcome. Without her support the Scottish Tory mps will not vote for the deal. People vote conservative here for Ruth and the union not for Brexit.

    On the other hand Davidson did get the Unionist voters who were amongst the 30% of Scots for Brexit.

    I share the gloom of your young teacher friend. The future of Britain looks grim, negative and unappealing. If I were a recent graduate I too would emigrate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    edited June 2018
    NickPalmer said:

    Interesting poll - I wonder why Labour and Corbyn have both nosedived in Scotland while remaining broadly stable in the rest of GB?

    Incidentally, the Ontario results show another dose of both populism and polarisation, with the centrist government almost squeezed out of existence:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/08/ontario-election-results-populist-doug-ford-to-become-premier

    Good result for the Progressive Conservatives in the Ontario provincial election and midterm blues for the Liberals.

    PC leader and new Ontario Premier Doug Ford is a charismatic populist in the Trump, Boris and Berlusconi mode and also his late brother Rob was the Mayor of Toronto
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    NickPalmer said:

    Interesting poll - I wonder why Labour and Corbyn have both nosedived in Scotland while remaining broadly stable in the rest of GB?

    Incidentally, the Ontario results show another dose of both populism and polarisation, with the centrist government almost squeezed out of existence:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/08/ontario-election-results-populist-doug-ford-to-become-premier

    I assume it is pro-remainers concluding that the SNP is a better anti-Brexit option than Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Yougov 15-18 May
    SNP 42
    Con 29
    Lab 19
    LD 6

    Yougov 1-5 June 2017
    SNP 41
    Con 26
    Lab 25
    LD 6

    Panelbase:
    SNP 41% (-1)
    Conservatives 30% (n/c)
    Labour 22% (+2)
    Liberal Democrats 5% (n/c)

    Result

    SNP 37
    Con 29
    Lab 27
    LD 7

    It is crude, but Yougov error to final result:

    SNP (-4)
    Con (+3)
    Lab (+2)
    LD (+1)

    Applying the same here would give:

    SNP 36
    Con 30
    Lab 25

    Here are all the seats vulnerable on a 1% swing to the SNP from Labour:

    2. Rutherglen and Hamilton West Scotland 265 0.26%
    3. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Scotland 259 0.28%
    4. Glasgow North East Scotland 242 0.38%
    5. Midlothian Scotland 885 0.98%

    After that there is:

    6. Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Scotland 1,586 1.76%
    8. East Lothian Scotland 3,083 2.76%

    Edinburgh South has transformed into a sort of mainland Orkney and Shetland for Labour, and is very safe.

    Perth North Perthshire, Lanark & Hamilton East, Edinburgh SW, Argyll & Bute and Ayrshire central are all very vulnerable to the Tories still (Sub 1300 majorities)
    Stirling is the closest the other way for the SNP.

    The Northeast doesn't look particularly vulnerable to the SNP to me, the Tories did a splendid job of plundering the Lib Dem vote in rural Scotland.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The Holyrood results need a lot more detail to make sense. SNP support up but dropping almost double digit seats?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,068
    F1: Hartley reportedly unconcerned by rumours of his departure, saying he knows what his contract says.

    Hmm. Historically, contracts in F1 have tended to be a bit... malleable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Alistair said:

    The Holyrood results need a lot more detail to make sense. SNP support up but dropping almost double digit seats?

    How much Tory -> Lib Dem unwind are you counting on in the north ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,537
    edited June 2018
    ydoethur said:

    I don't think in practice Brexit or Scexit is impossible or even especially difficult Domenic in the right way. It's that ridiculous and artificial time limit that's causing the problems. Most successful divergences happen gradually after years if not decades of preparation. To put it in context, Canada had the trappings of statehood from 1867, New Zealand from 1888 and Australia from 1901, it they didn't get actual statehood until 1931 and still had close economic ties to Britain down to the 1970s. In the case of Canada and New Zealand, that's over a century to achieve divergence. Even on the most optimistic view Ireland took 25 years, arguably 63.

    That's not to say our incompetence or the mendacity of Barnier and his drunken Fascist puppet master haven't made matters more difficult than they would have been otherwise, but if Scotland is to go independent they need to realise the lesson of Brexit is it is a process not an event.

    May might be trying to sort this with the EU to without their realising it (because let's face it people who believe Selmayr is an intellectual ain't up to much in the brain stakes) to avoid serious mutual harm, but even if that is her aim and it's not basic incompetence it clearly isn't working.

    I disagree over your view of Barnier and Juncker. Barnier has always played it straight, and while refreshed, Juncker has managed for the EU27 to remain far more unified than even our Brexit subcommitee of a dozen from the same country and party. It is a mistake to underestimate the opposition.

    Of course our government were warned that Brexit would be a slow process, but they didn't like that expert opinion so forced him out:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38498839

    Indeed the points raised in his resignation statement seem very prescient:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38503504

    So perhaps his more recent speech should be taken seriously.

    https://policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/blog-sir-ivan-rogers-speech-text-in-full/

    Theresa May and the Brexiteers have only themselves to blame for shooting the messanger.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    I never assume the SNP are a busted flush - they've done too well in the past for me to ever be complacent even when things look less good for them.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    The Holyrood results need a lot more detail to make sense. SNP support up but dropping almost double digit seats?

    How much Tory -> Lib Dem unwind are you counting on in the north ?
    To be honest the scale and totality of the Scottish Lib Dems to Tory switch took me by complete suprise at the last election. Made my look like a right Berk as I was adamant such a switch wouldn't happen at that scale.

    An even bigger suprise to me is how no one else seems to be commenting on the mass switch.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    Britain Elects
    ‏
    @britainelects
    Benson & Crowmarsh (South Oxfordshire) result:

    LDEM: 57.4% (+27.2)
    CON: 36.0% (-10.6)
    LAB: 6.6% (-4.0)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    No Grn (-12.6) as prev.


    @britainelects
    Canmore (Mid Devon) result:

    CON: 45.1% (+13.3)
    LDEM: 32.5% (+32.5)
    LAB: 22.4% (+7.0)

    Conservative HOLD.

    No Ind(s) as prev.

    @britainelects
    Crown (East Staffordshire) result:

    CON: 76.1% (-3.2)
    LAB: 12.1% (-8.5)
    LDEM: 11.8% (+11.8)

    Conservative HOLD.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,864
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    I don't think in practice Brexit or Scexit is impossible or even especially difficult Domenic in the right way. It's that ridiculous and artificial time limit that's causing the problems. Most successful divergences happen gradually after years if not decades of preparation. To put it in context, Canada had the trappings of statehood from 1867, New Zealand from 1888 and Australia from 1901, it they didn't get actual statehood until 1931 and still had close economic ties to Britain down to the 1970s. In the case of Canada and New Zealand, that's over a century to achieve divergence. Even on the most optimistic view Ireland took 25 years, arguably 63.

    That's not to say our incompetence or the mendacity of Barnier and his drunken Fascist puppet master haven't made matters more difficult than they would have been otherwise, but if Scotland is to go independent they need to realise the lesson of Brexit is it is a process not an event.

    May might be trying to sort this with the EU to without their realising it (because let's face it people who believe Selmayr is an intellectual ain't up to much in the brain stakes) to avoid serious mutual harm, but even if that is her aim and it's not basic incompetence it clearly isn't working.

    I disagree over your view of Barnier and Juncker. Barnier has always played it straight, and while refreshed, Juncker has managed for the EU27 to remain far more unified than even our Brexit subcommitee of a dozen from the same country and party. It is a mistake to underestimate the opposition.

    Of course our government were warned that Brexit would be a slow process, but they didn't like that expert opinion so forced him out:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38498839

    Indeed the points raised in his resignation statement seem very prescient:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38503504

    So perhaps his more recent speech should be taken seriously.

    https://policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/blog-sir-ivan-rogers-speech-text-in-full/

    Theresa May and the Brexiteers have only themselves to blame for shooting the messanger.
    Wise post!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    The idea the difficulties of extricatIng ourselves from the EU might bolster unionism on the grounds extricating from the UK would be even harder is in one sense darkly encouraging, though I would unionism would be positively supported, not reluctantly accepted as the alternative is too much bother.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    Alistair said:

    The Holyrood results need a lot more detail to make sense. SNP support up but dropping almost double digit seats?

    Not up down, the SNP are down 5% on the 46% they got at the last Holyrood elections in 2016 on this poll
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,258
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    The Holyrood results need a lot more detail to make sense. SNP support up but dropping almost double digit seats?

    How much Tory -> Lib Dem unwind are you counting on in the north ?
    To be honest the scale and totality of the Scottish Lib Dems to Tory switch took me by complete suprise at the last election. Made my look like a right Berk as I was adamant such a switch wouldn't happen at that scale.

    An even bigger suprise to me is how no one else seems to be commenting on the mass switch.
    It wasn't just Lib Dems switching - though that was very important. Alex Salmond managed to lose 8,500 votes in Gordon.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,759
    NickPalmer said:

    Interesting poll - I wonder why Labour and Corbyn have both nosedived in Scotland while remaining broadly stable in the rest of GB?

    Corbyn is irrelevant, the Labour Party is talking to itself.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    Foxy said:

    hamiltonace said:

    One of my swim team a young teacher just announced last night that she has quit her job and is going to Spain to work at a private school for less money. She mentioned Brexit and the general sxxt culture as the reason. The political discussion that followed showed a general gloom. The Scots think the English are talking to themselves as usual, ignoring everyone else and up their own a**e. In this environment only strong Scots will be supported.

    The Ruth Davidson factor is still an important part of the final Brexit outcome. Without her support the Scottish Tory mps will not vote for the deal. People vote conservative here for Ruth and the union not for Brexit.

    On the other hand Davidson did get the Unionist voters who were amongst the 30% of Scots for Brexit.

    I share the gloom of your young teacher friend. The future of Britain looks grim, negative and unappealing. If I were a recent graduate I too would emigrate.
    Unemployment in Spain is currently 16%, quadruple the 4% in the UK
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    daodao said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we expecting Theresa May to call a snap election?

    No - what she wants is BINO, to be achieved sotto voce - Bojo has let the cat out of the bag.
    So he wanted it leaked?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,316
    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,537
    kle4 said:

    I never assume the SNP are a busted flush - they've done too well in the past for me to ever be complacent even when things look less good for them.

    The electorate do tend to tire of any government, and that factor probably weighs more heavily than any external factors.

    We are still in the Phoney war period. The tectonic plates of Brexit will shift shortly. Quite what that then means electorally is not clear, but I think unlikely to benefit the Tories in Scotland. Voters are pretty tough on incompetence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    logical_song said:

    daodao said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Are we expecting Theresa May to call a snap election?

    No - what she wants is BINO, to be achieved sotto voce - Bojo has let the cat out of the bag.
    So he wanted it leaked?
    I would assume Boris is canny enough to know anything he says will be reported even if not outright leaked.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,986
    The Union may be safe for the medium term but those of us who care for it need to be thinking now about the long term.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,068
    I have to say that poll couldn't look any roguier if it were wearing a hood, had a pair of daggers, was wreathed in shadow and adorning the cover of a Renaissance-esque fantasy entitled The Rogueish Adventures of Hoody McDoubledaggers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,316
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1004989944870375424
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,316
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    I like Martin's theory.

    https://twitter.com/MartinHoscik/status/1004989718814248961
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    edited June 2018
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I have to say that poll couldn't look any roguier if it were wearing a hood, had a pair of daggers, was wreathed in shadow and adorning the cover of a Renaissance-esque fantasy entitled The Rogueish Adventures of Hoody McDoubledaggers.

    While next to dvd of Rogue One no doubt.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    Becuase people are seeing through labour's policy/non-policy on Europe?

    Oh, and Ohhhhhhh Jeremy Corbyn....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,759
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    edited June 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    That would see the Tories gain 24 seats from Labour on a UNS of 2.5% for an overall majority of 32.

    That would be the biggest Conservative majority since 1987
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    Do we think Corbyn can get back below 30 % any time soon? I mean, Labour Live has the potential to be appalling viewing/optics, there's got to be someone who just can't help their antisemitism, their own Brexit strategy unravelled in hours this week.

    I did want six points, so as to make an easy Ken joke, so I'll stop.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    I like Martin's theory.

    https://twitter.com/MartinHoscik/status/1004989718814248961
    At the least we the public are showing we don't know what the hell we want from our politicians. Some terribly competent mps are wondering why they bother I imagine.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,316
    Personally I think the reason for the 7% Tory lead is down to that Tracey Ullman hatchet job on Corbyn.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    As I keep saying maybe its something to do with the full employment that now exists in this Country. People wages are rising, they have money in their pockets. The amount of stressing about Brexit on here yesterday and what time Davis is having a meeting with May etc is really of little interest to the average person. We are currently struggling to fill apprenctice vacancies as young people are being snapped up by other firms. There are currently more jobs available than there are people to fill them. The economy is in a truly remarkable state and maybe the Government are getting some credit for that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
    I guess, and you're right it's likely useless as am indicator, and that minds will be concentrated once we actually come to an election, but it's still pretty baffling.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    To disentangle is bound to take time. We've spent forty years gradually integrating on a path to produce a single country. Anyone who believes that had we stayed, the status quo would remain is deluded. The process of integration will continue whether we stay or go.

    That's been the issue. Softly, softly, catchee monkey might have been the plan, but now the destination has been revealed, there's been a rent. Saying it's too late, we're too much entwined to be able to escape is a little desperate.

    The spider's web has a few threads meshed round us and the arachnid fears the disturbance of a large insect escaping could disrupt the whole web. Better it surrenders to its fate, or leaves without damage to the web's integrity.

    We'll never have another referendum, they're too unpredictable, but perhaps this shows we should have had previous referendums. The spider's intentions have finally become obvious, but there's still time to escape.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    That would see the Tories gain 24 seats from Labour on a UNS of 2.5% for an overall majority of 32.

    That would be the biggest Conservative majority since 1987
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
    Call a snap election Tessy, you know it makes sense!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    Since the general election Labour have lost 1% to the LDs and 2% to the Tories on this poll
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,537
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
    Yes, Brexit continues to be an internal debate within the Tories. It always has been, and a serial that predates even the first Star Wars. Increasingly derivative and poorly written too, while trying to recapture past glories.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Slackbladder said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    That would see the Tories gain 24 seats from Labour on a UNS of 2.5% for an overall majority of 32.

    That would be the biggest Conservative majority since 1987
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
    Call a snap election Tessy, you know it makes sense!
    Never believe opinion polls... except those that say Corbyn is toxic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    currystar said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    As I keep saying maybe its something to do with the full employment that now exists in this Country. People wages are rising, they have money in their pockets. The amount of stressing about Brexit on here yesterday and what time Davis is having a meeting with May etc is really of little interest to the average person. We are currently struggling to fill apprenctice vacancies as young people are being snapped up by other firms. There are currently more jobs available than there are people to fill them. The economy is in a truly remarkable state and maybe the Government are getting some credit for that.
    If you are right then all news media, print and tv and Web, now have almost no impact on people's perceptions, as the impression I get is things are terrible.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    Rofl - another kick in the goolies for the 'village' idiots.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,367
    I'll settle for Labour losing seats to the SNP as long as the Tories do too.

    The net effect is an increased chance of a Labour PM.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,316
    edited June 2018
    If I'm reading this right the poll that has the Tories 7% ahead (their largest lead since the GE) also sees the highest the government is handling Brexit score this year.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    NickPalmer said:

    Interesting poll - I wonder why Labour and Corbyn have both nosedived in Scotland while remaining broadly stable in the rest of GB?

    Incidentally, the Ontario results show another dose of both populism and polarisation, with the centrist government almost squeezed out of existence:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/08/ontario-election-results-populist-doug-ford-to-become-premier

    This is about poll timing. The last YouGov Scotland poll was in January when LAB had leads in most national polls. Since early April there hasn't been a single LAB national lead. This Scottish survey in relation to Labour is just reflecting national shifts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,779
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
    Yes, Brexit continues to be an internal debate within the Tories. It always has been, and a serial that predates even the first Star Wars. Increasingly derivative and poorly written too, while trying to recapture past glories.
    What an incredibly lazy suggestion. Brexit has been more vital to the tories, but provably is more than just a tory debate.

    For one, the other parties are not even irrelevant for once given the hung parliament, so a dismissal if Brexit as a tory debate woukd be a missed opportunity for all the others to influence things.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,316
    MikeSmithson said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Interesting poll - I wonder why Labour and Corbyn have both nosedived in Scotland while remaining broadly stable in the rest of GB?

    Incidentally, the Ontario results show another dose of both populism and polarisation, with the centrist government almost squeezed out of existence:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/08/ontario-election-results-populist-doug-ford-to-become-premier

    This is about poll timing. The last YouGov Scotland poll was in January when LAB had leads in most national polls. Since early April there hasn't been a single LAB national lead. This Scottish survey in relation to Labour is just reflecting national shifts.
    Check your WhatsApp
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,986
    Foxy said:

    hamiltonace said:

    One of my swim team a young teacher just announced last night that she has quit her job and is going to Spain to work at a private school for less money. She mentioned Brexit and the general sxxt culture as the reason. The political discussion that followed showed a general gloom. The Scots think the English are talking to themselves as usual, ignoring everyone else and up their own a**e. In this environment only strong Scots will be supported.

    The Ruth Davidson factor is still an important part of the final Brexit outcome. Without her support the Scottish Tory mps will not vote for the deal. People vote conservative here for Ruth and the union not for Brexit.

    On the other hand Davidson did get the Unionist voters who were amongst the 30% of Scots for Brexit.

    I share the gloom of your young teacher friend. The future of Britain looks grim, negative and unappealing. If I were a recent graduate I too would emigrate.
    To where exactly? A handful of northern European countries? Why do liberals keep thinking Britain is some kind of outlier?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,331
    Probably the 2 most important polling results today.

    https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1004960844231462913

    https://twitter.com/KevinJPringle/status/1004851299886731271
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,537
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
    Yes, Brexit continues to be an internal debate within the Tories. It always has been, and a serial that predates even the first Star Wars. Increasingly derivative and poorly written too, while trying to recapture past glories.
    What an incredibly lazy suggestion. Brexit has been more vital to the tories, but provably is more than just a tory debate.

    For one, the other parties are not even irrelevant for once given the hung parliament, so a dismissal if Brexit as a tory debate woukd be a missed opportunity for all the others to influence things.
    The LDs, Greens, SNP, all have a settled opinion, with no real division on the issue, and ditto for rump UKIP. Labour clearly favour BINO. It is only the Tories where a real debate is occurring.

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    The key to Scotland realising its independence dream is Sturgeon brokering a copper bottomed deal with the EU. Spain is the key issue. It was ever thus.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
    I think that's right. None of Labour's main issues have been prominent for months except the secondary one of rail, and the domination of Brexit has made the story all about alternative varieties of Tory. Labour's cautious line may avoid losing votes but doesn't get any significant media attention, except the occasional "split" story as people argue about it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,759
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
    I guess, and you're right it's likely useless as am indicator, and that minds will be concentrated once we actually come to an election, but it's still pretty baffling.
    It’s the issue of relevance for me.

    When the GE is called , the leader of the opposition is immediately important. They also get equal coverage in whatever they do.

    In the meantime the LoO struggles, Corbyn is struggling in particular because he is not engaging or leading opposing on the key issue of the day. He prefers to bang on about his pet concerns and talk to his own membership. He has no political radar outside his own tribe , I am not sure he even cares.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Probably the 2 most important polling results today.

    https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1004960844231462913

    https://twitter.com/KevinJPringle/status/1004851299886731271

    Nicola needs to provide a clear prospectus for an independent Scotland. If she can do that, it can be done.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    Anazina said:

    The key to Scotland realising its independence dream is Sturgeon brokering a copper bottomed deal with the EU. Spain is the key issue. It was ever thus.

    Not really, the SNP lost over a third of their MPs after the Brexit vote
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,367
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    This is a bloody awful poll for us. But we're organising a music festival. So that's OK then.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    The Holyrood results need a lot more detail to make sense. SNP support up but dropping almost double digit seats?

    Not up down, the SNP are down 5% on the 46% they got at the last Holyrood elections in 2016 on this poll
    Oh, duh, of course.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,592
    edited June 2018
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Probably the 2 most important polling results today.

    https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1004960844231462913

    https://twitter.com/KevinJPringle/status/1004851299886731271

    So despite endless trawling you still find every new poll backing staying in the UK in both Scotland and NI and of course the SNP is projected to use its Holyrood majority with the Greens with yougov today too
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,331
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    The key to Scotland realising its independence dream is Sturgeon brokering a copper bottomed deal with the EU. Spain is the key issue. It was ever thus.

    Not really, the SNP lost over a third of their MPs after the Brexit vote
    Almost half surely?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    I can't remember a more prescient sight than that on the news last night when the cameras cut between the shuffling hunch-backed Boris 'Iago' Johnson and the upright Jean Claude Juncker. It was almost biblical

    Why a Scot would want to remain on this sinking Westminster ship when they had the opportunity to use the ejector button and stay with the EU is one of life's great mysteries. Up there with 'why did God create Hartlepool?'
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    ydoethur said:

    I don't think in practice Brexit or Scexit is impossible or even especially difficult Domenic in the right way. It's that ridiculous and artificial time limit that's causing the problems. Most successful divergences happen gradually after years if not decades of preparation. To put it in context, Canada had the trappings of statehood from 1867, New Zealand from 1888 and Australia from 1901, it they didn't get actual statehood until 1931 and still had close economic ties to Britain down to the 1970s. In the case of Canada and New Zealand, that's over a century to achieve divergence. Even on the most optimistic view Ireland took 25 years, arguably 63.

    That's not to say our incompetence or the mendacity of Barnier and his drunken Fascist puppet master haven't made matters more difficult than they would have been otherwise, but if Scotland is to go independent they need to realise the lesson of Brexit is it is a process not an event.

    May might be trying to sort this with the EU to without their realising it (because let's face it people who believe Selmayr is an intellectual ain't up to much in the brain stakes) to avoid serious mutual harm, but even if that is her aim and it's not basic incompetence it clearly isn't working.

    Just as you could argue that we hadn't fully joined (euro, schengen, etc) before we left, you might also likewise think that we won't have fully left before we rejoin.

    As you say, these are decadal events.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,717
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    Probably an outlier.

    OTOH, as someone suggested a couple of days ago, having close to full employment does make people well-disposed to the government.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,331
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    This is a bloody awful poll for us. But we're organising a music festival. So that's OK then.
    Where Jezza goes, mini me SLab follows. Having Hugh 'diversity training' Gaffney as special guest is brave.

    https://twitter.com/CentralCLP/status/1003674045815115776
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    kle4 said:

    currystar said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    As I keep saying maybe its something to do with the full employment that now exists in this Country. People wages are rising, they have money in their pockets. The amount of stressing about Brexit on here yesterday and what time Davis is having a meeting with May etc is really of little interest to the average person. We are currently struggling to fill apprenctice vacancies as young people are being snapped up by other firms. There are currently more jobs available than there are people to fill them. The economy is in a truly remarkable state and maybe the Government are getting some credit for that.
    If you are right then all news media, print and tv and Web, now have almost no impact on people's perceptions, as the impression I get is things are terrible.
    We've had an extraordinarily busy last 18 months, in commercial printing (dying trade!). It's bizarre. All the news is awful and print tends to be affected if marketing spend/investment is on hold, but we've had a record year and other printers have been off the clock too.

    The printing press manufacturer's (Heidelberg) were ebullient when we met a few months ago.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,258
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
    But why aren't the Lib Dems doing better? Why aren't both Labour and the Tories falling in the polls?
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
    I guess, and you're right it's likely useless as am indicator, and that minds will be concentrated once we actually come to an election, but it's still pretty baffling.
    It’s the issue of relevance for me.

    When the GE is called , the leader of the opposition is immediately important. They also get equal coverage in whatever they do.

    In the meantime the LoO struggles, Corbyn is struggling in particular because he is not engaging or leading opposing on the key issue of the day. He prefers to bang on about his pet concerns and talk to his own membership. He has no political radar outside his own tribe , I am not sure he even cares.
    Shall we agree that Jeremy Corbyn is bad at day to day politics, then?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    The Holyrood results need a lot more detail to make sense. SNP support up but dropping almost double digit seats?

    How much Tory -> Lib Dem unwind are you counting on in the north ?
    To be honest the scale and totality of the Scottish Lib Dems to Tory switch took me by complete suprise at the last election. Made my look like a right Berk as I was adamant such a switch wouldn't happen at that scale.

    An even bigger suprise to me is how no one else seems to be commenting on the mass switch.
    It wasn't just Lib Dems switching - though that was very important. Alex Salmond managed to lose 8,500 votes in Gordon.
    Turnout was down and the SNP voter is a lazy voter and the remainder of Fat Eck's lost vote will have gone to Labour or transferred back to the LDs where it came from.

    I don't understand the fervent desire to explain everything in terms of the tiny SNP to Tory switching that took place when an absolutely massive tidal wave of LD to Tory switching occured.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    NickPalmer said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
    I think that's right. None of Labour's main issues have been prominent for months except the secondary one of rail, and the domination of Brexit has made the story all about alternative varieties of Tory. Labour's cautious line may avoid losing votes but doesn't get any significant media attention, except the occasional "split" story as people argue about it.
    A lot of comfort blankets in use this morning to ward off the blue chill.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,331
    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Probably the 2 most important polling results today.

    https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1004960844231462913

    https://twitter.com/KevinJPringle/status/1004851299886731271

    So despite endless trawling you still find every new poll backing staying in the UK in both Scotland and NI and of course the SNP is projected to use its Holyrood majority with the Greens with yougov today too
    You seem a little garbled. Some punctuation and syntax please.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Credit to SeanT for making the final "controversial" point at least a year ago. Brexit has killed Scottish Independence for a generation at least. This sort of change now looks too big, too hard and too risky.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    kle4 said:

    currystar said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    As I keep saying maybe its something to do with the full employment that now exists in this Country. People wages are rising, they have money in their pockets. The amount of stressing about Brexit on here yesterday and what time Davis is having a meeting with May etc is really of little interest to the average person. We are currently struggling to fill apprenctice vacancies as young people are being snapped up by other firms. There are currently more jobs available than there are people to fill them. The economy is in a truly remarkable state and maybe the Government are getting some credit for that.
    If you are right then all news media, print and tv and Web, now have almost no impact on people's perceptions, as the impression I get is things are terrible.
    People are interested in the news if it affects them. What time TMay has a meeting with DDavis yesterday may charge people up on here but it does not affect the ordinary person who does not obsess about politics. They see job vacancy boards everywhere, everyone they know who wants a job has a job, oh and Love Island is back on.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,759
    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    There isn’t an election at the moment, we saw last time (and the time before) that mid term polls are a pretty useless indicator. Labour are slipping because they’ve made themselves irrelevant to the political debate.
    But why aren't the Lib Dems doing better? Why aren't both Labour and the Tories falling in the polls?
    The Lib Dems are even less relevant and viable vehicle for opposition than Labour. They died in 2015. It’s as simple and brutal as that.

    It will take a serious change of tack, fortuitous events and a lot of hard local work to bring them back. And even then they’ll probably end up having to change their name or de facto become a different party.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Roger said:

    I can't remember a more prescient sight than that on the news last night when the cameras cut between the shuffling hunch-backed Boris 'Iago' Johnson and the upright Jean Claude Juncker. It was almost biblical

    Why a Scot would want to remain on this sinking Westminster ship when they had the opportunity to use the ejector button and stay with the EU is one of life's great mysteries. Up there with 'why did God create Hartlepool?'

    Those ordinary folk you can't bear have to live somewhere.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,759
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Credit to SeanT for making the final "controversial" point at least a year ago. Brexit has killed Scottish Independence for a generation at least. This sort of change now looks too big, too hard and too risky.

    Surely it depends on what happens with Brexit.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,258
    edited June 2018
    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    The Holyrood results need a lot more detail to make sense. SNP support up but dropping almost double digit seats?

    How much Tory -> Lib Dem unwind are you counting on in the north ?
    To be honest the scale and totality of the Scottish Lib Dems to Tory switch took me by complete suprise at the last election. Made my look like a right Berk as I was adamant such a switch wouldn't happen at that scale.

    An even bigger suprise to me is how no one else seems to be commenting on the mass switch.
    It wasn't just Lib Dems switching - though that was very important. Alex Salmond managed to lose 8,500 votes in Gordon.
    Turnout was down and the SNP voter is a lazy voter and the remainder of Fat Eck's lost vote will have gone to Labour or transferred back to the LDs where it came from.

    I don't understand the fervent desire to explain everything in terms of the tiny SNP to Tory switching that took place when an absolutely massive tidal wave of LD to Tory switching occured.

    What about Aberdeen South? The Lib Dems actually increased their vote there.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,717
    currystar said:

    kle4 said:

    currystar said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    As I keep saying maybe its something to do with the full employment that now exists in this Country. People wages are rising, they have money in their pockets. The amount of stressing about Brexit on here yesterday and what time Davis is having a meeting with May etc is really of little interest to the average person. We are currently struggling to fill apprenctice vacancies as young people are being snapped up by other firms. There are currently more jobs available than there are people to fill them. The economy is in a truly remarkable state and maybe the Government are getting some credit for that.
    If you are right then all news media, print and tv and Web, now have almost no impact on people's perceptions, as the impression I get is things are terrible.
    People are interested in the news if it affects them. What time TMay has a meeting with DDavis yesterday may charge people up on here but it does not affect the ordinary person who does not obsess about politics. They see job vacancy boards everywhere, everyone they know who wants a job has a job, oh and Love Island is back on.
    The jobs numbers suggest that the economy is growing rather faster than current estimates suggest.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,897
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov Times GB wide Poll

    Con 44 (+2)

    Labour 37 (-2)

    LD 8 (-1)

    Largest Tory lead since the GE.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-heads-off-brexit-revolt-with-backstop-concession-fbg5hbmv3

    How?!

    The cabinet are openly divided and all the news is about how badly Brexit is going, even from the pro brexit side. How on that situation do they rise?
    Probably an outlier.

    OTOH, as someone suggested a couple of days ago, having close to full employment does make people well-disposed to the government.
    But petrol prices have had the biggest increase for many years and that usually hits Conservative voters.

    And rail problems aren't helping Labour despite all the talk of most people wanting it nationalised.

    For that matter the collapse of Carllion didn't help Labour either.
This discussion has been closed.