Well, it hasn't been a great few days for the alt-Right elements on either side of the pond. We had the Roseanne thing, which cast them in a rather unpleasant light, and then they made fools of themselves defending Yaxley-Lennon. Now we have Trump and his trade wars. It feels like a movement in something of a flap.
Presumably Scotland and London will be able to opt into the SEZ too?
Bring it on.
'Under the radical blueprint, the province would operate a double hatted regime of European and British regulations at the same time, so it can trade freely with both'
'The Brexit Secretary is also drawing up a 10 mile-wide buffer zone the length of Northern Ireland’s 310 mile border with Ireland. Dubbed a ‘special economic zone’, it will be for local traders such as dairy farmers – who make up 90 per cent of the cross border traffic – and share the same trade rules as south of the border. The two plans will together eradicate the need for any border check points, which is a major EU demand.'
'Brexit Ministry officials took inspiration for the double hatted model from the tiny European state of Liechtenstein, which the EU allows to operate both the Swiss and EEA regimes at the same time.'
Many people are fucking idiots. One can only hope they roughly balance out.
I remember before the second Iraq war being pretty anti-war, and being pushed largely to the pro-war side largely by the chorus of absolute idiots in the anti-war camp, drowning out any quite reasonable arguments against the war with utterly moronic ones.
Yes, in general I think huge demos bring out the contrary element - certainly I felt more inclined to ban fox-hunting and vote for the war because of all the people screaming insults (though I probably would have anyway). There was only one demo that did impress me and want to vote their way - a massive but utterly silent one, by I think the Tamils over Sri Lanka.
Ditto.
I was very tempted to do a ludicrously pro-Iraq War countermarch, Writers and Poets For The War (with about 3 like minded right wing journo friends), just to piss off the millions of bien pensant anti-Iraq war idiots, wankers and lefties who were marching right past my flat on Store Street, WC1.
As it happens, the wankers and lefties were correct, and the Iraq War was a disaster. And I was left looking a misguided fool, like you.
Though Iraq does at least now have a democratic government and President unlike Dictator Saddam, though it was probably not worth the deaths and rise and fall of ISIS to get there
I am increasingly of the view May could be our Merkel and be there for almost another decade, if she wins in 2022 a small majority against Corbyn as polls suggest is possible she could be PM for 11 years ie as long as Thatcher and Blair.
Merkel remember failed to win a majority for her coalition in her first election in 2005 despite expectations (like May in 2017 Merkel stated the campaign with a 21% lead which fell to 1% on election night) but did manage to win a small majority in her second election in 2009
Isn't that not so much MaxFac mark 2 but border-in-the-Irish-sea mark 2?
The most interesting point in that article is that David David has abandoned Max Fac because of technological limitations.
If the EU doesn’t buy whatever alchemy DEXEU are cooking up, we’ll stay in a customs union and shadow the Single Market. It’s the only way to meet the commitment on Ireland.
Presumably the government ministers aren't the sort of idiots that think Twitter diplomacy is a good idea. It is embarrassing to Remainers that some of them think it is.
Farage, of course, is massively embarrassing himself again.
Isn't that not so much MaxFac mark 2 but border-in-the-Irish-sea mark 2?
The most interesting point in that article is that David David has abandoned Max Fac because of technological limitations.
If the EU doesn’t but whatever alchemy DEXEU are cooking up, we’ll stay in a customs union and shadow the Single Market, it’s the only way to meet the commitment on Ireland.
Not true. We can simply not put up a border or change relevant regulations in the North. If they want to diverge or put up borders, that is on them.
To be honest either voting Tory or Lib Dem won't make a jot of difference in Lewisham East (Well apart from me and Mike's side bet) - Labour are going to romp home.
Which will vindicate Corbyn's brexit stance. Outside the single market and customs union.
By the way what arrangement are we having in terms of Gibraltar and Spain?
Isn't that not so much MaxFac mark 2 but border-in-the-Irish-sea mark 2?
The most interesting point in that article is that David David has abandoned Max Fac because of technological limitations.
If the EU doesn’t but whatever alchemy DEXEU are cooking up, we’ll stay in a customs union and shadow the Single Market, it’s the only way to meet the commitment on Ireland.
Not true. We can simply not put up a border or change relevant regulations in the North. If they want to diverge or put up borders, that is on them.
In some fantasy world in which we’re prepared to return the Irish border to how it was pre-1992, against the commitments we made in December, sure.
In reality, no.
If you think we can choose not to put up a border, you must also think that we’re prepared to have no import controls for all 180-odd members of the WTO, or quit that organisation. Which would you do? Again, in reality we won’t do either.
I am increasingly of the view May could be our Merkel and be there for almost another decade, if she wins in 2022 a small majority against Corbyn as polls suggest is possible she could be PM for 11 years ie as long as Thatcher and Blair.
Merkel remember failed to win a majority for her coalition in her first election in 2005 despite expectations but did manage to win a small majority in her second election in 2009
It would be amusing if May won a bigger majority than Cameron just to see the reaction on here.
But the Tories should elect a younger face. Raab continues to impress. He has mastery over his subject, his background as a human rights lawyer makes him not a typical Tory, and he is capable of diffusing attacks. If not him, Tugendhat or Mercer or Mordaunt all have charisma and their patriotism puts Corbyn on the spot.
Presumably the government ministers aren't the sort of idiots that think Twitter diplomacy is a good idea. It is embarrassing to Remainers that some of them think it is.
Farage, of course, is massively embarrassing himself again.
Many people are fucking idiots. One can only hope they roughly balance out.
I remember before the second Iraq war being pretty anti-war, and being pushed largely to the pro-war side largely by the chorus of absolute idiots in the anti-war camp, drowning out any quite reasonable arguments against the war with utterly moronic ones.
Yes, in general I think huge demos bring out the contrary element - certainly I felt more inclined to ban fox-hunting and vote for the war because of all the people screaming insults (though I probably would have anyway). There was only one demo that did impress me and want to vote their way - a massive but utterly silent one, by I think the Tamils over Sri Lanka.
Ditto.
I was very tempted to do a ludicrously pro-Iraq War countermarch, Writers and Poets For The War (with about 3 like minded right wing journo friends), just to piss off the millions of bien pensant anti-Iraq war idiots, wankers and lefties who were marching right past my flat on Store Street, WC1.
As it happens, the wankers and lefties were correct, and the Iraq War was a disaster. And I was left looking a misguided fool, like you.
Though Iraq does at least now have a democratic government and President unlike Dictator Saddam, though it was probably not worth the deaths and rise and fall of ISIS to get there
Iraq edges towards a kind of democracy, but a regime of strict sanctions and no-fly zones and help-the-Kurds would surely have got us to this position, without the total chaos, violence, anarchy and destabiliation unleashed by Shock and Awe. It was a catastrophe. And also an expensive catastrophe. I believe America's (and the West's) inexorable decline from Global Hegemon began the day the bombs started falling on Baghdad.
We largely had the former since 1990 and Saddam was still there.
Of course not all the West backed the War, France, Canada, Germany, New Zealand, Sweden etc joined Russia and China in opposing it
Indeed it's an interesting test for us all to take. The two biggest decisions which faced Britain in the last 20 years were:
Join the euro? Join the Iraq War?
Clearly the correct decision, in both cases, was to join neither. I got the first right and the second wrong. Blair got both tragically wrong, like Nick Palmer XMP.
How many leading politicians got both right? It's hard to think of any. Farage maybe? Did he even have a position on Iraq, and did anyone even care?
Obviously Brexit will be the third and even bigger decision, but we won't know the Was-it-good-or-bad answer for a decade, or more, and quite possibly never. Because for some it is a theological issue, not political or rational, and therefore impossible to usefully debate.
Isn't that not so much MaxFac mark 2 but border-in-the-Irish-sea mark 2?
The most interesting point in that article is that David David has abandoned Max Fac because of technological limitations.
If the EU doesn’t but whatever alchemy DEXEU are cooking up, we’ll stay in a customs union and shadow the Single Market, it’s the only way to meet the commitment on Ireland.
Not true. We can simply not put up a border or change relevant regulations in the North. If they want to diverge or put up borders, that is on them.
In some fantasy world in which we’re prepared to return the Irish border to how it was pre-1992, against the commitments we made in December, sure.
In reality, no.
If you think we can choose not to put up a border, you must also think that we’re prepared to have no import controls for all 180-odd members of the WTO, or quit that organisation. Which would you do? Again, in reality we won’t do either.
No. It would only be for the 27 (or is it 28?) in the EU as the EU has its own border. It is no different to Western Canada having an open border with the US. There is a legal border there but no enforcement for stretches. Doesn't change WTO commitments.
I am increasingly of the view May could be our Merkel and be there for almost another decade, if she wins in 2022 a small majority against Corbyn as polls suggest is possible she could be PM for 11 years ie as long as Thatcher and Blair.
Merkel remember failed to win a majority for her coalition in her first election in 2005 despite expectations but did manage to win a small majority in her second election in 2009
It would be amusing if May won a bigger majority than Cameron just to see the reaction on here.
But the Tories should elect a younger face. Raab continues to impress. He has mastery over his subject, his background as a human rights lawyer makes him not a typical Tory, and he is capable of diffusing attacks. If not him, Tugendhat or Mercer or Mordaunt all have charisma and their patriotism puts Corbyn on the spot.
It is not impossible, like Merkel she is a managerial administrator rather than a charismatic leader from the front like Thatcher but there really is little alternative at the moment.
Of those you mention Raab is too much of a Leaver for Remainers, Tugendhat too much of a Remainer for Leavers, Mercer and Mordaunt need to prove themselves in a big Cabinet job first, they probably are possible future Tory leaders in a decade or so not 4 years time.
I am increasingly of the view May could be our Merkel and be there for almost another decade, if she wins in 2022 a small majority against Corbyn as polls suggest is possible she could be PM for 11 years ie as long as Thatcher and Blair.
Merkel remember failed to win a majority for her coalition in her first election in 2005 despite expectations but did manage to win a small majority in her second election in 2009
It would be amusing if May won a bigger majority than Cameron just to see the reaction on here.
But the Tories should elect a younger face. Raab continues to impress. He has mastery over his subject, his background as a human rights lawyer makes him not a typical Tory, and he is capable of diffusing attacks. If not him, Tugendhat or Mercer or Mordaunt all have charisma and their patriotism puts Corbyn on the spot.
It is not impossible, like Merkel she is a managerial administrator rather than a charismatic leader from the front like Thatcher but there really is little alternative at the moment.
Of those you mention Raab is too much of a Leaver for Remainers, Tugendhat too much of a Remainer for Leavers, Mercer and Mordaunt need to prove themselves in a big Cabinet job first, they probably are possible future Tory leaders in a decade or so not 4 years time.
Ms May is a bit too told and autistic to do a Merkel. But I can maybe see her lasting to a narrow victory over Corbyn in 2022, then eagerly handing the job to someone new.
This is presuming Corbyn lasts. If Labour find the cullions and the mechanism to ditch the Jezbollah, and elect someone plausible, they will romp home.
Merkel is a dull scientist and technocrat, in personality not that much different from May if a fraction warmer.
Labour will almost certainly have Corbyn as their leader next time, his landslide wins with the membership mean the centrists within the party are still licking their wounds and his gains last time cemented his position further.
If Labour lose next time though under Corbyn again the centrists will have to decide whether to try one last time to get one of their own elected or strike out on their own a la En Marche, maybe under someone like Umunna.
Not true. We can simply not put up a border or change relevant regulations in the North. If they want to diverge or put up borders, that is on them.
I am kicking myself. I have drafted up a post suggesting a dual regulatory structure across the whole UK a few weeks ago, but didn't bother posting it because it was too long and I thought that nobody would bother to engage on the details.
Anyway, I might as well post it here for posterity and see if Davis plan ends up anything like this when we get the details. Would not be surprised to see the NI zone extended. Would be interested in feedback if anyone can get through this:
--
On Brexit day, the UK legislates two parallel systems of regulation for physical goods - UK Regulations (UKR) and EU Regulations (EUR). On Brexit day, they are both the same.
UKR can be changed by the UK Government at will after Brexit. EUR change in UK law automatically when the EU changes regulations.
UKR applies to all UK companies making goods for the domestic market, and for export markets other than the EU. It also applies to all non-EU importers to the UK.
EUR applies to all UK companies who export physical goods to the EU (at least in respect of those products exported) who choose this option.
The EU and UK agree to a tariff free, quota free FTA. There would need to be a seperate services agreement as well of course.
As a major concession, the UK agrees that it will accept all goods from the EU that meet EUR without limitation now and during the FTA, whether or not they meet UKR. As long as EU importers to the UK certify that goods meet EU rules of origin, they will be allowed into the UK without friction at customs. They can also cross the NI border northbound on the same basis.
The UK adopts a slightly different approach. As with CETA, the UK and EU form a bilateral board that assesses regulatory alignment. For all goods where either the UK exporter is manufacturing to EUR or where UKR are sufficiently aligned, the UK can export these to the EU subject again to the rules of origin declaration. There is a difference in customs procedures at the EU border depending on which option is used (see below).
If UKR and EUR have diverged to the extent that they are no longer in alignment for any specific types of goods, UK exporters HAVE to follow EUR (this is the default case for all trade anyway - you follow the regulations of the target country). The UK, of course, have agreed to accept EUR goods regardless.
As a special case, the UK agrees that within NI all UK exporters to ROI across the NI border must work to EUR - the option to rely on regulatory alignment is not available across the land border. However, it would be available if NI business wants to import to the ROI via the ports (where compliance can be checked). NI exporters are subject to random inspection to ensure they are using and complying with EUR.
Therefore, transfers across the NI border do not need to be checked although they may need to be notified.
EUR continues to be subject to the ECJ (of course) and the UK has no control over any changes.
Because EUR is also written into UK law, they have legal force where they are being used and the UK has a treaty obligation to enforce them (as at present).
In return for the EU import concession made by the UK, the EU agrees that: -UK regulatory bodies can continue to certify UK produced goods as being in compliance with EUR, subject to reasonable supervision. Of course, UK producers may be able to get their products dual certified - eg EUR and UKR. Many products (eg consumer electronics) are manufactured to comply with multiple regulations. -For UK exports to the EU that are certified under EUR, other than rules of origin declarations these should be ‘fast tracked’ by EU customs by agreement - effectively they need to be cleared automatically. UK exports certified under ‘aligned’ UKR would have to clear customs in the EU as usual, adding friction but this would be avoidable to UK exporters if they continue to follow EUR.
I am increasingly of the view May could be our Merkel and be there for almost another decade, if she wins in 2022 a small majority against Corbyn as polls suggest is possible she could be PM for 11 years ie as long as Thatcher and Blair.
Merkel remember failed to win a majority for her coalition in her first election in 2005 despite expectations but did manage to win a small majority in her second election in 2009
It would be amusing if May won a bigger majority than Cameron just to see the reaction on here.
But the Tories should elect a younger face. Raab continues to impress. He has mastery over his subject, his background as a human rights lawyer makes him not a typical Tory, and he is capable of diffusing attacks. If not him, Tugendhat or Mercer or Mordaunt all have charisma and their patriotism puts Corbyn on the spot.
It is not impe.
Ms May is a bit too told and autistic to do a Merkel. But I can maybe see her lasting to a narrow victory over Corbyn in 2022, then eagerly handing the job to someone new.
This is presuming Corbyn lasts. If Labour find the cullions and the mechanism to ditch the Jezbollah, and elect someone plausible, they will romp home.
Merkel is a dull sciente like Umunna.
I don't speak German, but I suspect Merkel is a much better campaigner, she's a bit chilly and matronly, sure. but she hasn't got that awful Aspergery gawkiness of May. She'd never make howlers on the trail like TMay and her cowardly avoidance of debates, on the basis she was "making important Brexit decisions", in an election SHE called. TMay is a fortunate idiot.
I agree Corbyn is likely to last the distance, and on that basis I reckon TMay has a good reason to expect she will face him, which in turn gives her reason to cling on, and fight that election, and V probably win it.
Comparing TMay to Thatcher is absurd. It's like comparing Gordon Brown to Attlee.
Merkel don't forget had a similar disaster to May in her first general election in 2005, she started with a 21% lead which fell to just 1% on election night. However by 2009 she finally got a small majority with her FDP allies. Next time I would expect a better manifesto from May and her to appear in face to face debates.
May is not Thatcher but she was a once in a half century PM, Corbyn though is more of a Foot/Kinnock than a Blair I agree
I am increasingly of the view May could be our Merkel and be there for almost another decade, if she wins in 2022 a small majority against Corbyn as polls suggest is possible she could be PM for 11 years ie as long as Thatcher and Blair.
Merkel remember failed to win a majority for her coalition in her first election in 2005 despite expectations (like May in 2017 Merkel stated the campaign with a 21% lead which fell to 1% on election night) but did manage to win a small majority in her second election in 2009
You could be right. People sometimes forget that Mrs Thatcher was never particularly popular during her first 2 to 3 years in Downing Street. In fact around the time of the Brixton riots in 1981 it was assumed by almost everyone that she'd be out of office fairly soon.
Indeed it's an interesting test for us all to take. The two biggest decisions which faced Britain in the last 20 years were:
Join the euro? Join the Iraq War?
Clearly the correct decision, in both cases, was to join neither. I got the first right and the second wrong. Blair got both tragically wrong, like Nick Palmer XMP.
How many leading politicians got both right? It's hard to think of any. Farage maybe? Did he even have a position on Iraq, and did anyone even care?
Obviously Brexit will be the third and even bigger decision, but we won't know the Was-it-good-or-bad answer for a decade, or more, and quite possibly never. Because for some it is a theological issue, not political or rational, and therefore impossible to usefully debate.
Indeed it's an interesting test for us all to take. The two biggest decisions which faced Britain in the last 20 years were:
Join the euro? Join the Iraq War?
Clearly the correct decision, in both cases, was to join neither. I got the first right and the second wrong. Blair got both tragically wrong, like Nick Palmer XMP.
How many leading politicians got both right? It's hard to think of any. Farage maybe? Did he even have a position on Iraq, and did anyone even care?
Obviously Brexit will be the third and even bigger decision, but we won't know the Was-it-good-or-bad answer for a decade, or more, and quite possibly never. Because for some it is a theological issue, not political or rational, and therefore impossible to usefully debate.
I suspect that Prince Harry probably has, bearing in mind that he flew combat air support in Afghanistan.
British forces are coy about telling aircrew the body count (one could find out if one went looking) although in AH-64 the Duke of Sussex probably saw plenty of arms and legs flying around through the FLIR.
On my USN exchange they used to tell us the number of enemy KIA with the casual precision I associate with cribbage scores.
A slightly odd question: do we know if Hitler directly, by his own hand, kill anyone? Did he shoot or stab someone directly, as opposed to by the swipe of a pen or a verbal order?
(This just came up in conversation; it's not in any way an odd attempt to defend him.)
Comments
The DUP can either suck it up or make Corbyn PM, their call.
'The Brexit Secretary is also drawing up a 10 mile-wide buffer zone the length of Northern Ireland’s 310 mile border with Ireland.
Dubbed a ‘special economic zone’, it will be for local traders such as dairy farmers – who make up 90 per cent of the cross border traffic – and share the same trade rules as south of the border.
The two plans will together eradicate the need for any border check points, which is a major EU demand.'
'Brexit Ministry officials took inspiration for the double hatted model from the tiny European state of Liechtenstein, which the EU allows to operate both the Swiss and EEA regimes at the same time.'
£31.14
Luigi Di Maio
-£240.70
Paolo Gentiloni
-£258.00
Antonio Tajani
-£207.75
Silvio Berlusconi (& Anyone else)
-£223.00
Should settle tommorow.
Corbyn 6.4
Rees Mogg 7
Javid 11
Gove 12.5
Johnson 13
Hunt 19
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094
Merkel remember failed to win a majority for her coalition in her first election in 2005 despite expectations (like May in 2017 Merkel stated the campaign with a 21% lead which fell to 1% on election night) but did manage to win a small majority in her second election in 2009
If the EU doesn’t buy whatever alchemy DEXEU are cooking up, we’ll stay in a customs union and shadow the Single Market. It’s the only way to meet the commitment on Ireland.
Farage, of course, is massively embarrassing himself again.
By the way what arrangement are we having in terms of Gibraltar and Spain?
In reality, no.
If you think we can choose not to put up a border, you must also think that we’re prepared to have no import controls for all 180-odd members of the WTO, or quit that organisation. Which would you do? Again, in reality we won’t do either.
But the Tories should elect a younger face. Raab continues to impress. He has mastery over his subject, his background as a human rights lawyer makes him not a typical Tory, and he is capable of diffusing attacks. If not him, Tugendhat or Mercer or Mordaunt all have charisma and their patriotism puts Corbyn on the spot.
Of course not all the West backed the War, France, Canada, Germany, New Zealand, Sweden etc joined Russia and China in opposing it
Of those you mention Raab is too much of a Leaver for Remainers, Tugendhat too much of a Remainer for Leavers, Mercer and Mordaunt need to prove themselves in a big Cabinet job first, they probably are possible future Tory leaders in a decade or so not 4 years time.
Labour will almost certainly have Corbyn as their leader next time, his landslide wins with the membership mean the centrists within the party are still licking their wounds and his gains last time cemented his position further.
If Labour lose next time though under Corbyn again the centrists will have to decide whether to try one last time to get one of their own elected or strike out on their own a la En Marche, maybe under someone like Umunna.
Anyway, I might as well post it here for posterity and see if Davis plan ends up anything like this when we get the details. Would not be surprised to see the NI zone extended. Would be interested in feedback if anyone can get through this:
--
On Brexit day, the UK legislates two parallel systems of regulation for physical goods - UK Regulations (UKR) and EU Regulations (EUR). On Brexit day, they are both the same.
UKR can be changed by the UK Government at will after Brexit. EUR change in UK law automatically when the EU changes regulations.
UKR applies to all UK companies making goods for the domestic market, and for export markets other than the EU. It also applies to all non-EU importers to the UK.
EUR applies to all UK companies who export physical goods to the EU (at least in respect of those products exported) who choose this option.
The EU and UK agree to a tariff free, quota free FTA. There would need to be a seperate services agreement as well of course.
As a major concession, the UK agrees that it will accept all goods from the EU that meet EUR without limitation now and during the FTA, whether or not they meet UKR. As long as EU importers to the UK certify that goods meet EU rules of origin, they will be allowed into the UK without friction at customs. They can also cross the NI border northbound on the same basis.
Part 2 to follow....
The UK adopts a slightly different approach. As with CETA, the UK and EU form a bilateral board that assesses regulatory alignment. For all goods where either the UK exporter is manufacturing to EUR or where UKR are sufficiently aligned, the UK can export these to the EU subject again to the rules of origin declaration. There is a difference in customs procedures at the EU border depending on which option is used (see below).
If UKR and EUR have diverged to the extent that they are no longer in alignment for any specific types of goods, UK exporters HAVE to follow EUR (this is the default case for all trade anyway - you follow the regulations of the target country). The UK, of course, have agreed to accept EUR goods regardless.
As a special case, the UK agrees that within NI all UK exporters to ROI across the NI border must work to EUR - the option to rely on regulatory alignment is not available across the land border. However, it would be available if NI business wants to import to the ROI via the ports (where compliance can be checked). NI exporters are subject to random inspection to ensure they are using and complying with EUR.
Therefore, transfers across the NI border do not need to be checked although they may need to be notified.
EUR continues to be subject to the ECJ (of course) and the UK has no control over any changes.
Because EUR is also written into UK law, they have legal force where they are being used and the UK has a treaty obligation to enforce them (as at present).
In return for the EU import concession made by the UK, the EU agrees that:
-UK regulatory bodies can continue to certify UK produced goods as being in compliance with EUR, subject to reasonable supervision. Of course, UK producers may be able to get their products dual certified - eg EUR and UKR. Many products (eg consumer electronics) are manufactured to comply with multiple regulations.
-For UK exports to the EU that are certified under EUR, other than rules of origin declarations these should be ‘fast tracked’ by EU customs by agreement - effectively they need to be cleared automatically. UK exports certified under ‘aligned’ UKR would have to clear customs in the EU as usual, adding friction but this would be avoidable to UK exporters if they continue to follow EUR.
May is not Thatcher but she was a once in a half century PM, Corbyn though is more of a Foot/Kinnock than a Blair I agree
On my USN exchange they used to tell us the number of enemy KIA with the casual precision I associate with cribbage scores.