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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A very British coup. A way back for the defeated centre?

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  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    felix said:
    What the..?

    Kinder and gentler politics, arguing over whether or not to respect a moment of silence for a distinguished member who recently passed away. Some of these people are on another planet.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    On topic, it would be very strange that a leader increasing his seat numbers would be challenged for his position. Especially that labour far left see this as their chance to fundamentally change the country and that they wouldn't want to see this watered down.

    Success is performance minus anticipation. Neil Kinnock stood down in 1992 having increased Labour's seat tally by 42.
  • Options
    saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Sure Labour have been taken over by the loopy fruits of the left, but the Tories? May is about as middle of the road as you can get, it's part of her problem, no strong opinions either way.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,349
    Sandpit said:

    felix said:
    What the..?

    Kinder and gentler politics, arguing over whether or not to respect a moment of silence for a distinguished member who recently passed away. Some of these people are on another planet.
    If only that were true.....
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    So what happens when the next financial crisis happens ?
    The next recession is going to be brutal in most developed countries, a lot of governments still haven’t recovered from the last crisis a decade ago. In the UK the govt is still borrowing more than £100,000,000 a day despite all the complaints of “austerity” and poor services. With interest rates still on the floor the only lever left is going to be serious cuts in welfare spending, as were seen in Ireland in 2009.
    I wonder which will be the last to be cut - welfare spending or political vanity projects.
    There’s not an awful lot of the latter left, major infrastructure upgrades like HS2 and LHR are already decades overdue and impacting the economy - and substantially privately funded. The logjams are in planning rather than construction.

    There’s only two budgets big enough to make a meaningful difference to the overall numbers, that’s healthcare and welfare.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    Ultimately, what I think the nationalists would like is independence – with the Barnett formula.

    http://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i298/colin_kidd_at_policy_exchange.aspx

    It's not enough to just have it as a policy though. They need to put that on the side of a bus as well and send it touring through Lanarkshire. Failure to do so was clearly their big mistake in 2014.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,954
    https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/italy


    Interest per Year
    91,074,200,774€


    Debt per Citizen
    39,189€
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:
    What the..?

    Kinder and gentler politics, arguing over whether or not to respect a moment of silence for a distinguished member who recently passed away. Some of these people are on another planet.
    If only that were true.....
    Doesn’t matter how much you hated someone, it’s basic human decency to doff one’s cap to remember the departed.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/italy


    Interest per Year
    91,074,200,774€


    Debt per Citizen
    39,189€

    Close to 140% of GDP, that’s pretty much unrecoverable without serious devaluation, even with historically low bond rates. The Mafia aren’t going to start paying taxes any time soon.

    Italy is an order of magnitude (almost exactly) larger than Greece, its difficult to see how this is anything but an existential crisis for the Eurozone.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,103


    While Italy raises temperatures in Europe TMerkel is embroiled in an immigration scandal of her own making which now looks like its heading for a full parliamentary investigation

    synopsis

    -Angie opens borders in 2015
    - Immigration office overwhelmed by cases
    - Angie says wave them through delays are making us look bad
    - so they do and ignore all procedures
    - bit of bribery thrown in to make it all more scandalous

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article176765501/BAMF-Krise-Das-Kanzleramt-traegt-die-Verantwortung.html

    Is Angie taking responsibility for any crimes committed by people who shouldn't have been allowed in ?
    lol

    what do you think ?

    her biggest exposure on this is vetting procedures were ignored. So as well as letting migrnts who were clearly economic through, there has be no checking of people with dubious pasts. Chuck in that officials were allegedly bribed to move people further up the queue and Merkel has just blown a huge hole in Europe's immigration controls. Presumably anyone waived through can now just turn up in an EU country of their choice.
    Laws are only for the little countries.

    Merkel follows in the tradition of German leaders that pieces of paper are worthless as soon as she decides they are.
    Next you'll be telling me nobody has been prosecuted for the diesel emissions falsification.

    Oh wait, US is prosecuting the head of AUDI US and is trying to get their hands on Martin Winterkorn former head of VW Group.

    Odd that in Europe which is VWs biggest market nobody is being pursued for100,000s of premature deaths.
    The way that greenies and lefties have ignored this is interesting.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097

    Mr. HYUFD, but only the incumbent is guaranteed a slot on the shortlist. McDonnell would require some MP backing (though I suspect he might get it given how things are going).

    Most likely
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,954
    edited May 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    So what happens when the next financial crisis happens ?
    The next recession is going to be brutal in most developed countries, a lot of governments still haven’t recovered from the last crisis a decade ago. In the UK the govt is still borrowing more than £100,000,000 a day despite all the complaints of “austerity” and poor services. With interest rates still on the floor the only lever left is going to be serious cuts in welfare spending, as were seen in Ireland in 2009.
    I wonder which will be the last to be cut - welfare spending or political vanity projects.
    There’s not an awful lot of the latter left, major infrastructure upgrades like HS2 and LHR are already decades overdue and impacting the economy - and substantially privately funded. The logjams are in planning rather than construction.

    There’s only two budgets big enough to make a meaningful difference to the overall numbers, that’s healthcare and welfare.
    Healthcare spend can't/won't be cut whether or not it is in private or public or pfi or whatever hands even with pay restraint. The aging population simply doesn't allow for it.

    On welfare, 'JSA' bill is absolubtely minute. Here is a handy pie chart... https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UK_government_benefits_2011.png

    One low hanging fruit the Gov't has rightly amended is that mortgage interest relief is being turned into a loan - https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/major-mortgage-benefit-being-axed-12310284 which the Gov't can claim back on an estate. How many more there are about I'm not sure.

    At some point (Long before I'm retired I'm guessing) the triple lock on the state pension will have to go.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    edited May 2018

    On topic, it would be very strange that a leader increasing his seat numbers would be challenged for his position. Especially that labour far left see this as their chance to fundamentally change the country and that they wouldn't want to see this watered down.

    Success is performance minus anticipation. Neil Kinnock stood down in 1992 having increased Labour's seat tally by 42.
    Kinnock stood down as unlike 1987 when he also increased Labour's seat tally in 1992 he was expected to win.

    Michael Howard in 2005 could have stayed as Tory leader after gaining about 30 seats but as he still lost decided to step down
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, but only the incumbent is guaranteed a slot on the shortlist. McDonnell would require some MP backing (though I suspect he might get it given how things are going).

    Most likely
    This would not be an election for Labour leader (indeed, it is quite conceivable that Jeremy Corbyn would remain Labour leader). It would be a selection for someone to act as Prime Minister. Labour would need to come up with someone acceptable to a majority of the House of Commons. If Jeremy Corbyn failed that test, it would be fairly pointless putting up John McDonnell.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,103
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    So what happens when the next financial crisis happens ?
    The next recession is going to be brutal in most developed countries, a lot of governments still haven’t recovered from the last crisis a decade ago. In the UK the govt is still borrowing more than £100,000,000 a day despite all the complaints of “austerity” and poor services. With interest rates still on the floor the only lever left is going to be serious cuts in welfare spending, as were seen in Ireland in 2009.
    I wonder which will be the last to be cut - welfare spending or political vanity projects.
    There’s not an awful lot of the latter left, major infrastructure upgrades like HS2 and LHR are already decades overdue and impacting the economy - and substantially privately funded. The logjams are in planning rather than construction.

    There’s only two budgets big enough to make a meaningful difference to the overall numbers, that’s healthcare and welfare.
    Having been on a few trains in recent weeks I didn't see any evidence of overcrowding on inter-city trains (the opposite in fact) but the suburban trains were another matter.

    And now goes to work having provoked the HS2 supporters.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    It would not be a moderate or democratic move to block Britain's exit from the EU.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Richard, enforce fines upon the Supermen of the German car industry? Impossible! You cannot apply rules created for the Untermensch this way.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    edited May 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, but only the incumbent is guaranteed a slot on the shortlist. McDonnell would require some MP backing (though I suspect he might get it given how things are going).

    Most likely
    This would not be an election for Labour leader (indeed, it is quite conceivable that Jeremy Corbyn would remain Labour leader). It would be a selection for someone to act as Prime Minister. Labour would need to come up with someone acceptable to a majority of the House of Commons. If Jeremy Corbyn failed that test, it would be fairly pointless putting up John McDonnell.
    Labour only need SNP, Green and Plaid votes to make Corbyn PM if the LDs abstain in a hung parliament and Tories plus DUP lack a majority (though they would need LD votes to get bills through). I doubt Cable would actually vote down a Corbyn government and if he did Corbyn may prefer a new election to get a few more seats and try and avoid reliance on the LDs, he would not hand over to a non Corbynista
  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Yet another straw man article from Alistair in contrast to the excellent article by cyclefree at the weekend. I do agree that labour have been taken over by on extreme of their party, it is however difficult to say that this is not pragmatic. Offering left wing policies and supporting Brexit in a wispy washy fashion was pragmatic and got over 40% of the vote. If you look at the Tories and the key posts of Home Secretary, CofE and PM are all people who campaigned for Remain. Surely it is pragmatic to respect the will of the people rather than ignore it.
    Hyper EU enthusiasm such as Alistair's is hardly mainstream. Most people either want out, or want to stay in without such enthusiasm.

    Funnily enough Alistair goes on to predict chaos at an election on figures which now seem out of date, so false premise built on straw man. The one point I do agree with is that the SNP will cause as much chaos at Westminster as they can, and in 2015 that turned out to be a very good method of making sure Tory voters turned out in England in order to prevent them.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    So what happens when the next financial crisis happens ?
    The next recession is going to be brutal in most developed countries, a lot of governments still haven’t recovered from the last crisis a decade ago. In the UK the govt is still borrowing more than £100,000,000 a day despite all the complaints of “austerity” and poor services. With interest rates still on the floor the only lever left is going to be serious cuts in welfare spending, as were seen in Ireland in 2009.
    I wonder which will be the last to be cut - welfare spending or political vanity projects.
    There’s not an awful lot of the latter left, major infrastructure upgrades like HS2 and LHR are already decades overdue and impacting the economy - and substantially privately funded. The logjams are in planning rather than construction.

    There’s only two budgets big enough to make a meaningful difference to the overall numbers, that’s healthcare and welfare.
    Healthcare spend can't/won't be cut whether or not it is in private or public or pfi or whatever hands even with pay restraint. The aging population simply doesn't allow for it.

    On welfare, 'JSA' bill is absolubtely minute. Here is a handy pie chart... https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UK_government_benefits_2011.png

    One low hanging fruit the Gov't has rightly amended is that mortgage interest relief is being turned into a loan - https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/major-mortgage-benefit-being-axed-12310284 which the Gov't can claim back on an estate. How many more there are about I'm not sure.

    At some point (Long before I'm retired I'm guessing) the triple lock on the state pension will have to go.
    Higher rate tax relief on pension contributions to go?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    So what happens when the next financial crisis happens ?
    The next recession is going to be brutal in most developed countries, a lot of governments still haven’t recovered from the last crisis a decade ago. In the UK the govt is still borrowing more than £100,000,000 a day despite all the complaints of “austerity” and poor services. With interest rates still on the floor the only lever left is going to be serious cuts in welfare spending, as were seen in Ireland in 2009.
    I wonder which will be the last to be cut - welfare spending or political vanity projects.
    There’s not an awful lot of the latter left, major infrastructure upgrades like HS2 and LHR are already decades overdue and impacting the economy - and substantially privately funded. The logjams are in planning rather than construction.

    There’s only two budgets big enough to make a meaningful difference to the overall numbers, that’s healthcare and welfare.
    Healthcare spend can't/won't be cut whether or not it is in private or public or pfi or whatever hands even with pay restraint. The aging population simply doesn't allow for it.

    On welfare, 'JSA' bill is absolubtely minute. Here is a handy pie chart... https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UK_government_benefits_2011.png

    One low hanging fruit the Gov't has rightly amended is that mortgage interest relief is being turned into a loan - https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/major-mortgage-benefit-being-axed-12310284 which the Gov't can claim back on an estate. How many more there are about I'm not sure.

    At some point (Long before I'm retired I'm guessing) the triple lock on the state pension will have to go.
    Higher rate tax relief on pension contributions to go?
    That seems an obvious low hanger.

    But probably toxic for tories to do it.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    So what happens when the next financial crisis happens ?
    The next recession is going to be brutal in most developed countries, a lot of governments still haven’t recovered from the last crisis a decade ago. In the UK the govt is still borrowing more than £100,000,000 a day despite all the complaints of “austerity” and poor services. With interest rates still on the floor the only lever left is going to be serious cuts in welfare spending, as were seen in Ireland in 2009.
    I wonder which will be the last to be cut - welfare spending or political vanity projects.
    There’s not an awful lot of the latter left, major infrastructure upgrades like HS2 and LHR are already decades overdue and impacting the economy - and substantially privately funded. The logjams are in planning rather than construction.

    There’s only two budgets big enough to make a meaningful difference to the overall numbers, that’s healthcare and welfare.
    Having been on a few trains in recent weeks I didn't see any evidence of overcrowding on inter-city trains (the opposite in fact) but the suburban trains were another matter.

    And now goes to work having provoked the HS2 supporters.
    The justification for HS2 keeps changing but one of them is to allow more capacity for commuter trains and freight on the non HS2 line. Not sure how realistic this is.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    What was that about the EU punishing troublesome countries.....

    https://twitter.com/quatremer/status/1001379744271753216?s=21
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    So what happens when the next financial crisis happens ?
    The next recession is going to be brutal in most developed countries, a lot of governments still haven’t recovered from the last crisis a decade ago. In the UK the govt is still borrowing more than £100,000,000 a day despite all the complaints of “austerity” and poor services. With interest rates still on the floor the only lever left is going to be serious cuts in welfare spending, as were seen in Ireland in 2009.
    I wonder which will be the last to be cut - welfare spending or political vanity projects.
    There’s not an awful lot of the latter left, major infrastructure upgrades like HS2 and LHR are already decades overdue and impacting the economy - and substantially privately funded. The logjams are in planning rather than construction.

    There’s only two budgets big enough to make a meaningful difference to the overall numbers, that’s healthcare and welfare.
    Healthcare spend can't/won't be cut whether or not it is in private or public or pfi or whatever hands even with pay restraint. The aging population simply doesn't allow for it.

    On welfare, 'JSA' bill is absolubtely minute. Here is a handy pie chart... https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UK_government_benefits_2011.png

    One low hanging fruit the Gov't has rightly amended is that mortgage interest relief is being turned into a loan - https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/major-mortgage-benefit-being-axed-12310284 which the Gov't can claim back on an estate. How many more there are about I'm not sure.

    At some point (Long before I'm retired I'm guessing) the triple lock on the state pension will have to go.
    Yep, pensions will need to be cut in cash terms, and a massive sythe taken to tax credits and housing benefit.

    Healthcare bill only starts to come down with either large scale takeup of private insurance or emigration. Structural issues around social care provision obviously are in desperate need of fixing.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951

    It would not be a moderate or democratic move to block Britain's exit from the EU.

    Indeed.

    I’d go further. It is so called ‘centrism’ that has been the most extreme form of politics in the past 25 years. Pro London, anti-regions, pro unrestricted European immigration, pro European. The reaction against this in both main parties is the obvious reflection of realignment to public views...
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, but only the incumbent is guaranteed a slot on the shortlist. McDonnell would require some MP backing (though I suspect he might get it given how things are going).

    Most likely
    This would not be an election for Labour leader (indeed, it is quite conceivable that Jeremy Corbyn would remain Labour leader). It would be a selection for someone to act as Prime Minister. Labour would need to come up with someone acceptable to a majority of the House of Commons. If Jeremy Corbyn failed that test, it would be fairly pointless putting up John McDonnell.
    Labour only need SNP, Green and Plaid votes to make Corbyn PM if the LDs abstain in a hung parliament and Tories plus DUP lack a majority (though they would need LD votes to get bills through). I doubt Cable would actually vote down a Corbyn government and if he did Corbyn may prefer a new election to get a few more seats and try and avoid reliance on the LDs, he would not hand over to a non Corbynista
    Totally agree.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    So what happens when the next financial crisis happens ?
    The next recession is going to be brutal in most developed countries, a lot of governments still haven’t recovered from the last crisis a decade ago. In the UK the govt is still borrowing more than £100,000,000 a day despite all the complaints of “austerity” and poor services. With interest rates still on the floor the only lever left is going to be serious cuts in welfare spending, as were seen in Ireland in 2009.
    I wonder which will be the last to be cut - welfare spending or political vanity projects.
    There’s not an awful lot of the latter left, major infrastructure upgrades like HS2 and LHR are already decades overdue and impacting the economy - and substantially privately funded. The logjams are in planning rather than construction.

    There’s only two budgets big enough to make a meaningful difference to the overall numbers, that’s healthcare and welfare.
    Healthcare spend can't/won't be cut whether or not it is in private or public or pfi or whatever hands even with pay restraint. The aging population simply doesn't allow for it.

    On welfare, 'JSA' bill is absolubtely minute. Here is a handy pie chart... https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UK_government_benefits_2011.png

    One low hanging fruit the Gov't has rightly amended is that mortgage interest relief is being turned into a loan - https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/major-mortgage-benefit-being-axed-12310284 which the Gov't can claim back on an estate. How many more there are about I'm not sure.

    At some point (Long before I'm retired I'm guessing) the triple lock on the state pension will have to go.
    Higher rate tax relief on pension contributions to go?
    That seems an obvious low hanger.

    But probably toxic for tories to do it.
    As @rcs1000 will no doubt explain when he awakes, we need to be increasing the savings rate rather than reducing it. Scrapping pension tax relief would be a massive exercise in can-kicking, storing up more trouble for future governments.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    What was that about the EU punishing troublesome countries.....

    https://twitter.com/quatremer/status/1001379744271753216?s=21

    They really haven't thought this through have they. The one thing keeping Poland and other rogue nations in favour of the EU is the annual bribe. If that goes away the people will easily turn against membership. Losing one country is definitely an issue, losing three or four is the end of the EU.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    edited May 2018
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, but only the incumbent is guaranteed a slot on the shortlist. McDonnell would require some MP backing (though I suspect he might get it given how things are going).

    Most likely
    This would not be an election for Labour leader (indeed, it is quite conceivable that Jeremy Corbyn would remain Labour leader). It would be a selection for someone to act as Prime Minister. Labour would need to come up with someone acceptable to a majority of the House of Commons. If Jeremy Corbyn failed that test, it would be fairly pointless putting up John McDonnell.
    Labour only need SNP, Green and Plaid votes to make Corbyn PM if the LDs abstain in a hung parliament and Tories plus DUP lack a majority (though they would need LD votes to get bills through). I doubt Cable would actually vote down a Corbyn government and if he did Corbyn may prefer a new election to get a few more seats and try and avoid reliance on the LDs, he would not hand over to a non Corbynista
    Totally agree.
    Good to see we are as one on that anyway, in my view to get a 4th term the Tories will almost certainly need an overall majority, however small
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    MaxPB said:

    What was that about the EU punishing troublesome countries.....

    https://twitter.com/quatremer/status/1001379744271753216?s=21

    They really haven't thought this through have they. The one thing keeping Poland and other rogue nations in favour of the EU is the annual bribe. If that goes away the people will easily turn against membership. Losing one country is definitely an issue, losing three or four is the end of the EU.
    I think Russian Imperialism is a stronger element.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    So what happens when the next financial crisis happens ?
    The next recession is going to be brutal in most developed countries, a lot of governments still haven’t recovered from the last crisis a decade ago. In the UK the govt is still borrowing more than £100,000,000 a day despite all the complaints of “austerity” and poor services. With interest rates still on the floor the only lever left is going to be serious cuts in welfare spending, as were seen in Ireland in 2009.
    Pointing out that the government is having to borrow an extra £100m a day is a good way of showing how far we still need to go to get back to a position where we could withstand the next recession.


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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Elliot, lucky for the Baltic states that the EU and NATO are different monkeys.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Sandpit said:


    Yep, pensions will need to be cut in cash terms, and a massive sythe taken to tax credits and housing benefit.

    Healthcare bill only starts to come down with either large scale takeup of private insurance or emigration. Structural issues around social care provision obviously are in desperate need of fixing.

    The government needs to have a very long and very hard thing about life prolongment within the NHS. I'll use my own grandfather as an example, he's 89 years old and has a very poor quality of life. He suffers from Alzheimer's, he doesn't really know what is going on around him. Unfortunately the DNR question was never asked when he was able to answer the question and my two uncles are complete numpties and won't agree to one being signed (they have LPA along with my dad and aunt). The NHS is spending thousands of pounds prolonging his miserable existence (I don't mean that in a miserly sense, he is absolutely miserable all the time) and they shouldn't be.

    I think there needs to be an all party commission look at up to what age life prolonging treatment can reasonably be funded by the state. I know NICE has an element of that now but it should be codified.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,954
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, but only the incumbent is guaranteed a slot on the shortlist. McDonnell would require some MP backing (though I suspect he might get it given how things are going).

    Most likely
    This would not be an election for Labour leader (indeed, it is quite conceivable that Jeremy Corbyn would remain Labour leader). It would be a selection for someone to act as Prime Minister. Labour would need to come up with someone acceptable to a majority of the House of Commons. If Jeremy Corbyn failed that test, it would be fairly pointless putting up John McDonnell.
    Labour only need SNP, Green and Plaid votes to make Corbyn PM if the LDs abstain in a hung parliament and Tories plus DUP lack a majority (though they would need LD votes to get bills through). I doubt Cable would actually vote down a Corbyn government and if he did Corbyn may prefer a new election to get a few more seats and try and avoid reliance on the LDs, he would not hand over to a non Corbynista
    Totally agree.
    Good to see we are as one on that anyway, in my view to get a 4th term the Tories will almost certainly need an overall majority, however small
    Hmm I think with a repeat of the current result the DUP would support, with the right amount of support for Northern Ireland again of course.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Elliot said:

    MaxPB said:

    What was that about the EU punishing troublesome countries.....

    https://twitter.com/quatremer/status/1001379744271753216?s=21

    They really haven't thought this through have they. The one thing keeping Poland and other rogue nations in favour of the EU is the annual bribe. If that goes away the people will easily turn against membership. Losing one country is definitely an issue, losing three or four is the end of the EU.
    I think Russian Imperialism is a stronger element.
    They are all in NATO. The EU doesn't provide any security for them.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,728
    FPT:


    No. Taxman is so wedded to the whole concept of the EU that, in his own words, he cannot see any upside from the decision to Leave. That is clearly the sign of a fanatic.

    What are the upsides? Have you read Ivan Rogers' lecture, if so what are your thoughts?
    I have indeed. A number of times over the weekend.

    There is an immediate problem with it which is that Rogers starts from the position of attacking British policy over the last 25 years for wanting exceptionalism, for not wanting to be part of the programme of Ever Closer Union. His position seems to be that we are where we are now because we refused to sign up whole heartedly to the EU project that was being presented to us. This is all well and good if you are one of those civil servants who liked that project but it was, and always will be, unacceptable to a large majority of people in this country - even to a large number of Remainers.

    Indeed the person on here who Rogers most resembles is Williamglenn with his attitude that full scale assimilation is the only way forward whether we like it or not.

    Starting from a position of showing such a fundamental lack of understanding of the people he is meant to be serving does seem to colour all his subsequent comments.
    Thanks for your response Richard - I think I had logged off, so missed it last night.

    You seem to be saying that Rogers is a Europhile so his arguments can be dismissed. I understand you will sceptical of his views if you feel he is biased but I would really love someone from the Leaver camp to articulate exactly where Rogers - who does after all have some first hand knowledge of dealing with the EU - is mistaken in his views that we are effectively (and I paraphrase) up shit creek without a paddle.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2018
    We dole out £35bn in tax credits every year to subsidise low wage employers and to pay people to work fewer hours (bizarre) - which is then in many cases used to pay sky high private rents for those in work - and p**s £25bn and rising up the wall on landlord subsidy (aka housing benefit) with nothing to show for it. If we had invested in more social housing - £60bn a year would go a long way - that produced a return for the taxpayer rather than this massive handout to buy to let landlords we would be able to reduce this cost hugely over time. If we don't we will have millions more renting privately in retirement in the medium term which will cripple the public finances - alongside rising social care and NHS costs as they wont have a house to fund their care either.

    Solve housing and the crazy price of it would go a long way to sorting out our problems and the generational divide. When you need to earn £100k to be able to afford to buy a house in Dagenham as a first time buyer you know we have truly reach peak insanity!

    That is £60bn that should be tackled as a start - the sooner we act the sooner it can be cut.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:


    Yep, pensions will need to be cut in cash terms, and a massive sythe taken to tax credits and housing benefit.

    Healthcare bill only starts to come down with either large scale takeup of private insurance or emigration. Structural issues around social care provision obviously are in desperate need of fixing.

    The government needs to have a very long and very hard thing about life prolongment within the NHS. I'll use my own grandfather as an example, he's 89 years old and has a very poor quality of life. He suffers from Alzheimer's, he doesn't really know what is going on around him. Unfortunately the DNR question was never asked when he was able to answer the question and my two uncles are complete numpties and won't agree to one being signed (they have LPA along with my dad and aunt). The NHS is spending thousands of pounds prolonging his miserable existence (I don't mean that in a miserly sense, he is absolutely miserable all the time) and they shouldn't be.

    I think there needs to be an all party commission look at up to what age life prolonging treatment can reasonably be funded by the state. I know NICE has an element of that now but it should be codified.
    You might be interested in this organisation. I'm a member. I agree with its aims and I believe it will become mainstream in the years to come, - like attitudes to gay marriage and abortion have.

    https://www.dignityindying.org.uk/
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    MaxPB said:

    Elliot said:

    MaxPB said:

    What was that about the EU punishing troublesome countries.....

    https://twitter.com/quatremer/status/1001379744271753216?s=21

    They really haven't thought this through have they. The one thing keeping Poland and other rogue nations in favour of the EU is the annual bribe. If that goes away the people will easily turn against membership. Losing one country is definitely an issue, losing three or four is the end of the EU.
    I think Russian Imperialism is a stronger element.
    They are all in NATO. The EU doesn't provide any security for them.
    Perhaps, but that's not how it is seen in Poland.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, but only the incumbent is guaranteed a slot on the shortlist. McDonnell would require some MP backing (though I suspect he might get it given how things are going).

    Most likely
    This would not be an election for Labour leader (indeed, it is quite conceivable that Jeremy Corbyn would remain Labour leader). It would be a selection for someone to act as Prime Minister. Labour would need to come up with someone acceptable to a majority of the House of Commons. If Jeremy Corbyn failed that test, it would be fairly pointless putting up John McDonnell.
    Labour only need SNP, Green and Plaid votes to make Corbyn PM if the LDs abstain in a hung parliament and Tories plus DUP lack a majority (though they would need LD votes to get bills through). I doubt Cable would actually vote down a Corbyn government and if he did Corbyn may prefer a new election to get a few more seats and try and avoid reliance on the LDs, he would not hand over to a non Corbynista
    Totally agree.
    Labour relying on the SNP and Plaid to get every law passed - they will demand a lot more than £1bn for their votes. The prospect is horrific - England and its regions will bankroll it and get totally s*****d.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. 16, it'd have an interesting effect on English nationalism and calls for an English Parliament.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Barnesian said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:


    Yep, pensions will need to be cut in cash terms, and a massive sythe taken to tax credits and housing benefit.

    Healthcare bill only starts to come down with either large scale takeup of private insurance or emigration. Structural issues around social care provision obviously are in desperate need of fixing.

    The government needs to have a very long and very hard thing about life prolongment within the NHS. I'll use my own grandfather as an example, he's 89 years old and has a very poor quality of life. He suffers from Alzheimer's, he doesn't really know what is going on around him. Unfortunately the DNR question was never asked when he was able to answer the question and my two uncles are complete numpties and won't agree to one being signed (they have LPA along with my dad and aunt). The NHS is spending thousands of pounds prolonging his miserable existence (I don't mean that in a miserly sense, he is absolutely miserable all the time) and they shouldn't be.

    I think there needs to be an all party commission look at up to what age life prolonging treatment can reasonably be funded by the state. I know NICE has an element of that now but it should be codified.
    You might be interested in this organisation. I'm a member. I agree with its aims and I believe it will become mainstream in the years to come, - like attitudes to gay marriage and abortion have.

    https://www.dignityindying.org.uk/
    Thanks, I'm definitely in favour of assisted death for the terminally ill. People should be allowed to die in the manner they feel is best for them and their loved ones.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,728
    brendan16 said:

    We dole out £35bn in tax credits every year to subsidise low wage employers and to pay people to work fewer hours (bizarre) - which is then in many cases used to pay sky high private rents for those in work - and p**s £25bn and rising up the wall on landlord subsidy (aka housing benefit) with nothing to show for it. If we had invested in more social housing - £60bn a year would go a long way - that produced a return for the taxpayer rather than this massive handout to buy to let landlords we would be able to reduce this cost hugely over time. If we don't we will have millions more renting privately in retirement in the medium term which will cripple the public finances - alongside rising social care and NHS costs as they wont have a house to fund their care either.

    Solve housing and the crazy price of it would go a long way to sorting out our problems and the generational divide. When you need to earn £100k to be able to afford to buy a house in Dagenham as a first time buyer you know we have truly reach peak insanity!

    That is £60bn that should be tackled as a start - the sooner we act the sooner it can be cut.

    +1 for that!
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2018
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:


    Yep, pensions will need to be cut in cash terms, and a massive sythe taken to tax credits and housing benefit.

    Healthcare bill only starts to come down with either large scale takeup of private insurance or emigration. Structural issues around social care provision obviously are in desperate need of fixing.

    The government needs to have a very long and very hard thing about life prolongment within the NHS. I'll use my own grandfather as an example, he's 89 years old and has a very poor quality of life. He suffers from Alzheimer's, he doesn't really know what is going on around him. Unfortunately the DNR question was never asked when he was able to answer the question and my two uncles are complete numpties and won't agree to one being signed (they have LPA along with my dad and aunt). The NHS is spending thousands of pounds prolonging his miserable existence (I don't mean that in a miserly sense, he is absolutely miserable all the time) and they shouldn't be.

    I think there needs to be an all party commission look at up to what age life prolonging treatment can reasonably be funded by the state. I know NICE has an element of that now but it should be codified.
    We are having a lengthy debate about abortion and the right to control our own bodies.

    Yet we let our elderly - many of whom still have their faculties - to suffer in pain and misery in hospital and in care homes with zero quality of life costing thousands a month. Frankly we treat ill dogs and horses more humanely than our parents and grandparents. If they want to go to avoid further pain and misery why not let them and can consent why not let them go with dignity when they choose.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,954

    brendan16 said:

    We dole out £35bn in tax credits every year to subsidise low wage employers and to pay people to work fewer hours (bizarre) - which is then in many cases used to pay sky high private rents for those in work - and p**s £25bn and rising up the wall on landlord subsidy (aka housing benefit) with nothing to show for it. If we had invested in more social housing - £60bn a year would go a long way - that produced a return for the taxpayer rather than this massive handout to buy to let landlords we would be able to reduce this cost hugely over time. If we don't we will have millions more renting privately in retirement in the medium term which will cripple the public finances - alongside rising social care and NHS costs as they wont have a house to fund their care either.

    Solve housing and the crazy price of it would go a long way to sorting out our problems and the generational divide. When you need to earn £100k to be able to afford to buy a house in Dagenham as a first time buyer you know we have truly reach peak insanity!

    That is £60bn that should be tackled as a start - the sooner we act the sooner it can be cut.

    +1 for that!
    Of course there is slim to no chance of such a sensible policy being enacted.
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    FPT:


    No. Taxman is so wedded to the whole concept of the EU that, in his own words, he cannot see any upside from the decision to Leave. That is clearly the sign of a fanatic.

    What are the upsides? Have you read Ivan Rogers' lecture, if so what are your thoughts?
    I have indeed. A number of times over the weekend.

    There is an immediate problem with it which is that Rogers starts from the position of attacking British policy over the last 25 years for wanting exceptionalism, for not wanting to be part of the programme of Ever Closer Union. His position seems to be that we are where we are now because we refused to sign up whole heartedly to the EU project that was being presented to us. This is all well and good if you are one of those civil servants who liked that project but it was, and always will be, unacceptable to a large majority of people in this country - even to a large number of Remainers.

    Indeed the person on here who Rogers most resembles is Williamglenn with his attitude that full scale assimilation is the only way forward whether we like it or not.

    Starting from a position of showing such a fundamental lack of understanding of the people he is meant to be serving does seem to colour all his subsequent comments.
    Thanks for your response Richard - I think I had logged off, so missed it last night.

    You seem to be saying that Rogers is a Europhile so his arguments can be dismissed. I understand you will sceptical of his views if you feel he is biased but I would really love someone from the Leaver camp to articulate exactly where Rogers - who does after all have some first hand knowledge of dealing with the EU - is mistaken in his views that we are effectively (and I paraphrase) up shit creek without a paddle.
    It is becoming clear that the UK leaving the EU next March will be a purely symbolic event. We will continue to participate in all aspects of EU activity apart from the main decision-making organs - the Parliament and the Council of Ministers. Theoretically this will be a "transitional" phase but since there is no consensus on what we are transitioning to and little likelihood that one will emerge in the forseeable future it is likely that the transition state will become permanent.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    brendan16 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:


    Yep, pensions will need to be cut in cash terms, and a massive sythe taken to tax credits and housing benefit.

    Healthcare bill only starts to come down with either large scale takeup of private insurance or emigration. Structural issues around social care provision obviously are in desperate need of fixing.

    The government needs to have a very long and very hard thing about life prolongment within the NHS. I'll use my own grandfather as an example, he's 89 years old and has a very poor quality of life. He suffers from Alzheimer's, he doesn't really know what is going on around him. Unfortunately the DNR question was never asked when he was able to answer the question and my two uncles are complete numpties and won't agree to one being signed (they have LPA along with my dad and aunt). The NHS is spending thousands of pounds prolonging his miserable existence (I don't mean that in a miserly sense, he is absolutely miserable all the time) and they shouldn't be.

    I think there needs to be an all party commission look at up to what age life prolonging treatment can reasonably be funded by the state. I know NICE has an element of that now but it should be codified.
    We are having a lengthy debate about abortion and the right to control our own bodies.

    Yet we let our elderly - many of whom still have their faculties - to suffer in pain and misery in hospital and in care homes with zero quality of life costing thousands a month. Frankly we treat ill dogs and horses more humanely than our parents and grandparents. If they want to go to avoid further pain and misery why not let them and can consent why not let them go with dignity when they choose.
    Your post belies the risks. Whilst I have no doubt compassion is at the heart of your opinion, there will be others out there with other motives to stop spending "thousands of pounds a month" .
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    brendan16 said:

    We dole out £35bn in tax credits every year to subsidise low wage employers and to pay people to work fewer hours (bizarre) - which is then in many cases used to pay sky high private rents for those in work - and p**s £25bn and rising up the wall on landlord subsidy (aka housing benefit) with nothing to show for it. If we had invested in more social housing - £60bn a year would go a long way - that produced a return for the taxpayer rather than this massive handout to buy to let landlords we would be able to reduce this cost hugely over time. If we don't we will have millions more renting privately in retirement in the medium term which will cripple the public finances - alongside rising social care and NHS costs as they wont have a house to fund their care either.

    Solve housing and the crazy price of it would go a long way to sorting out our problems and the generational divide. When you need to earn £100k to be able to afford to buy a house in Dagenham as a first time buyer you know we have truly reach peak insanity!

    That is £60bn that should be tackled as a start - the sooner we act the sooner it can be cut.

    +1 for that!
    Of course there is slim to no chance of such a sensible policy being enacted.
    I thought you'd just taken a major step up the housing ladder - surprised to see you calling for your equity to be wiped out :p
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Two policemen and the perpetrator dead in Liege: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44289404
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997

    FPT:


    What are the upsides? Have you read Ivan Rogers' lecture, if so what are your thoughts?
    I have indeed. A number of times over the weekend.

    There is an immediate problem with it which is that Rogers starts from the position of attacking British policy over the last 25 years for wanting exceptionalism, for not wanting to be part of the programme of Ever Closer Union. His position seems to be that we are where we are now because we refused to sign up whole heartedly to the EU project that was being presented to us. This is all well and good if you are one of those civil servants who liked that project but it was, and always will be, unacceptable to a large majority of people in this country - even to a large number of Remainers.

    Indeed the person on here who Rogers most resembles is Williamglenn with his attitude that full scale assimilation is the only way forward whether we like it or not.

    Starting from a position of showing such a fundamental lack of understanding of the people he is meant to be serving does seem to colour all his subsequent comments.
    Thanks for your response Richard - I think I had logged off, so missed it last night.

    You seem to be saying that Rogers is a Europhile so his arguments can be dismissed. I understand you will sceptical of his views if you feel he is biased but I would really love someone from the Leaver camp to articulate exactly where Rogers - who does after all have some first hand knowledge of dealing with the EU - is mistaken in his views that we are effectively (and I paraphrase) up shit creek without a paddle.
    I think @Richard_Tyndall has misunderstood Rogers position (even though Richard says he has read the piece several times).

    Richard says "Rogers starts from the position of attacking British policy over the last 25 years for wanting exceptionalism, for not wanting to be part of the programme of Ever Closer Union. His position seems to be that we are where we are now because we refused to sign up wholeheartedly to the EU project that was being presented to us."

    No. That is not Rogers position. He doesn't say that at all. He acknowledges we have been successful in gaining exceptionalism and we are now voluntarily throwing it away.

    He also says

    a) "no deal is better than a bad deal" totally lacks credibility and both sides know it. That is why the UK is not preparing for no deal and will eventually accept whatever the EU offers (and Rogers hopes the EU will be generous in its own interest).

    b) There is no such thing as BINO. Being just outside the EU boundary is quite different from being just inside it. Don't take comfort from BINO.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,386
    edited May 2018
    Barnesian said:

    FPT:


    What are the upsides? Have you read Ivan Rogers' lecture, if so what are your thoughts?
    I have indeed. A number of times over the weekend.

    There is an immediate probleainers.

    Indeed the person on here who Rogers most resembles is Williamglenn with his attitude that full scale assimilation is the only way forward whether we like it or not.

    Starting from a position of showing such a fundamental lack of understanding of the people he is meant to be serving does seem to colour all his subsequent comments.
    Thanks for your response Richard - I think I had logged off, so missed it last night.

    You seem to be saying that Rogers is a Europhile so his arguments can be dismissed. I understand you will sceptical of his views if you feel he is biased but I would really love someone from the Leaver camp to articulate exactly where Rogers - who does after all have some first hand knowledge of dealing with the EU - is mistaken in his views that we are effectively (and I paraphrase) up shit creek without a paddle.
    I think @Richard_Tyndall has misunderstood Rogers position (even though Richard says he has read the piece several times).

    Richard says "Rogers starts from the position of attacking British policy over the last 25 years for wanting exceptionalism, for not wanting to be part of the programme of Ever Closer Union. His position seems to be that we are where we are now because we refused to sign up wholeheartedly to the EU project that was being presented to us."

    No. That is not Rogers position. He doesn't say that at all. He acknowledges we have been successful in gaining exceptionalism and we are now voluntarily throwing it away.

    He also says

    a) "no deal is better than a bad deal" totally lacks credibility and both sides know it. That is why the UK is not preparing for no deal and will eventually accept whatever the EU offers (and Rogers hopes the EU will be generous in its own interest).

    b) There is no such thing as BINO. Being just outside the EU boundary is quite different from being just inside it. Don't take comfort from BINO.
    As Richard has not yet clocked on for his half hour daily stint, I can say in anticipation of his arrival that he argues for what he wishes were so, not for what is so. He then gets more irritated the more people point out what is so and what he wishes were so and the difference between those two positions. He almost always ends up insulting other posters who do the pointing out.

    It is a perfectly understandable phenomenon and is only not bleedin' obvious to him.
  • Options
    saddosaddo Posts: 534
    brendan16 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:


    Yep, pensions will need to be cut in cash terms, and a massive sythe taken to tax credits and housing benefit.

    Healthcare bill only starts to come down with either large scale takeup of private insurance or emigration. Structural issues around social care provision obviously are in desperate need of fixing.

    The government needs to have a very long and very hard thing about life prolongment within the NHS. I'll use my own grandfather as an example, he's 89 years old and has a very poor quality of life. He suffers from Alzheimer's, he doesn't really know what is going on around him. Unfortunately the DNR question was never asked when he was able to answer the question and my two uncles are complete numpties and won't agree to one being signed (they have LPA along with my dad and aunt). The NHS is spending thousands of pounds prolonging his miserable existence (I don't mean that in a miserly sense, he is absolutely miserable all the time) and they shouldn't be.

    I think there needs to be an all party commission look at up to what age life prolonging treatment can reasonably be funded by the state. I know NICE has an element of that now but it should be codified.
    We are having a lengthy debate about abortion and the right to control our own bodies.

    Yet we let our elderly - many of whom still have their faculties - to suffer in pain and misery in hospital and in care homes with zero quality of life costing thousands a month. Frankly we treat ill dogs and horses more humanely than our parents and grandparents. If they want to go to avoid further pain and misery why not let them and can consent why not let them go with dignity when they choose.
    Completely agree. My mother died after 9 months of hell on earth when she wanted to die each day. NHS spent £'000's on her in those months effectively torturing her every day.

    Pre Shipman days, the doctors would have just given her slightly more opiates than needed.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,954

    Pulpstar said:

    brendan16 said:

    We dole out £35bn in tax credits every year to subsidise low wage employers and to pay people to work fewer hours (bizarre) - which is then in many cases used to pay sky high private rents for those in work - and p**s £25bn and rising up the wall on landlord subsidy (aka housing benefit) with nothing to show for it. If we had invested in more social housing - £60bn a year would go a long way - that produced a return for the taxpayer rather than this massive handout to buy to let landlords we would be able to reduce this cost hugely over time. If we don't we will have millions more renting privately in retirement in the medium term which will cripple the public finances - alongside rising social care and NHS costs as they wont have a house to fund their care either.

    Solve housing and the crazy price of it would go a long way to sorting out our problems and the generational divide. When you need to earn £100k to be able to afford to buy a house in Dagenham as a first time buyer you know we have truly reach peak insanity!

    That is £60bn that should be tackled as a start - the sooner we act the sooner it can be cut.

    +1 for that!
    Of course there is slim to no chance of such a sensible policy being enacted.
    I thought you'd just taken a major step up the housing ladder - surprised to see you calling for your equity to be wiped out :p
    I've argued a nominal house price freeze would be the best way out the current mire for everyone.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    saddo said:

    brendan16 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:


    Yep, pensions will need to be cut in cash terms, and a massive sythe taken to tax credits and housing benefit.

    Healthcare bill only starts to come down with either large scale takeup of private insurance or emigration. Structural issues around social care provision obviously are in desperate need of fixing.

    The government needs to have a very long and very hard thing about life prolongment within the NHS. I'll use my own grandfather as an example, he's 89 years old and has a very poor quality of life. He suffers from Alzheimer's, he doesn't really know what is going on around him. Unfortunately the DNR question was never asked when he was able to answer the question and my two uncles are complete numpties and won't agree to one being signed (they have LPA along with my dad and aunt). The NHS is spending thousands of pounds prolonging his miserable existence (I don't mean that in a miserly sense, he is absolutely miserable all the time) and they shouldn't be.

    I think there needs to be an all party commission look at up to what age life prolonging treatment can reasonably be funded by the state. I know NICE has an element of that now but it should be codified.
    We are having a lengthy debate about abortion and the right to control our own bodies.

    Yet we let our elderly - many of whom still have their faculties - to suffer in pain and misery in hospital and in care homes with zero quality of life costing thousands a month. Frankly we treat ill dogs and horses more humanely than our parents and grandparents. If they want to go to avoid further pain and misery why not let them and can consent why not let them go with dignity when they choose.
    Completely agree. My mother died after 9 months of hell on earth when she wanted to die each day. NHS spent £'000's on her in those months effectively torturing her every day.

    Pre Shipman days, the doctors would have just given her slightly more opiates than needed.
    Indeed, in the rare lucid moments my grandfather has he usually says that "death is better than this life" in Hindi or Swahili. The NHS should be there to help people, not torture them by forcing them to live.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997
    saddo said:

    brendan16 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:


    Yep, pensions will need to be cut in cash terms, and a massive sythe taken to tax credits and housing benefit.

    Healthcare bill only starts to come down with either large scale takeup of private insurance or emigration. Structural issues around social care provision obviously are in desperate need of fixing.

    The government needs to have a very long and very hard thing about life prolongment within the NHS. I'll use my own grandfather as an example, he's 89 years old and has a very poor quality of life. He suffers from Alzheimer's, he doesn't really know what is going on around him. Unfortunately the DNR question was never asked when he was able to answer the question and my two uncles are complete numpties and won't agree to one being signed (they have LPA along with my dad and aunt). The NHS is spending thousands of pounds prolonging his miserable existence (I don't mean that in a miserly sense, he is absolutely miserable all the time) and they shouldn't be.

    I think there needs to be an all party commission look at up to what age life prolonging treatment can reasonably be funded by the state. I know NICE has an element of that now but it should be codified.
    We are having a lengthy debate about abortion and the right to control our own bodies.

    Yet we let our elderly - many of whom still have their faculties - to suffer in pain and misery in hospital and in care homes with zero quality of life costing thousands a month. Frankly we treat ill dogs and horses more humanely than our parents and grandparents. If they want to go to avoid further pain and misery why not let them and can consent why not let them go with dignity when they choose.
    Completely agree. My mother died after 9 months of hell on earth when she wanted to die each day. NHS spent £'000's on her in those months effectively torturing her every day.

    Pre Shipman days, the doctors would have just given her slightly more opiates than needed.
    https://www.dignityindying.org.uk/
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Saddo/Mr. Max, I agree, though I'd be surprised if the law changes in the short term.

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    saddosaddo Posts: 534

    Mr. Saddo/Mr. Max, I agree, though I'd be surprised if the law changes in the short term.

    There has to a line. That for me is the point the doctors say there's nothing we can do to stop the cancer, but we can offer pain relief. At that point, the poor person concerned deserves a choice of ending things or carrying on.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    saddo said:

    Mr. Saddo/Mr. Max, I agree, though I'd be surprised if the law changes in the short term.

    There has to a line. That for me is the point the doctors say there's nothing we can do to stop the cancer, but we can offer pain relief. At that point, the poor person concerned deserves a choice of ending things or carrying on.
    I think dementia and Alzheimer's should be treated similarly. It's no life at all. The person is a shell of their former selves and they and the family and other loved ones are stuck in perpetual state of purgatory waiting (and sadly sometimes looking forward) for death.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,386
    saddo said:

    Mr. Saddo/Mr. Max, I agree, though I'd be surprised if the law changes in the short term.

    There has to a line. That for me is the point the doctors say there's nothing we can do to stop the cancer, but we can offer pain relief. At that point, the poor person concerned deserves a choice of ending things or carrying on.
    Again, it's a tricky one In that instance, if there is no pain yet the cancer is advancing, there could be plenty of good quality life left. And a thousand different examples in between.

    I have to say that when they showed on TV that guy going to Dignitas, who had, IIRC MND and he was at that stage, as he had to be, compos mentis, and the commentary said he had lived a good life and had a great wine cellar, my initial thought was surely there must be a mechanism for him to end his life at a time of his choosing but why on earth, on that particular day, did he not postpone the event by a day or a week and go home and open some great bottles!?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,954
    On Brexit, does anyone know if the current arrangement to be able to claim back say MwSt (German VAT) from supply performed in Germany through an EC sales reclaim will continue post March 2019 ?
  • Options
    franklynfranklyn Posts: 297
    Like all of us, I have been inundated with emails requesting permission to keep sending me emails.It's been a terrific bore, but might possibly reduce the amount of junk I get in my inbox.

    One organization who I haven't had such a request from is the ICO, the organization which runs all this nonsense, and who I presume understands the rules. Today I get a routine email from them (asking for money, what else).
    So my question is :
    Is the ICO itself in breech of all the rules, or have all the other emails been totally unnecessary? (It must be one or the other)
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,998
    On topic, one thing that hasn't been mentioned is EVEL. Using the numbers in the header, the Tories would certainly still have a large majority of MPs in England. This would make it very difficult for any Corbyn lead government to pass legislation in many areas.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Vale2, one remains unpersuaded by that. Not least because I think the ultimate arbiter of a UK/English issue is the Speaker.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997
    MaxPB said:

    saddo said:

    Mr. Saddo/Mr. Max, I agree, though I'd be surprised if the law changes in the short term.

    There has to a line. That for me is the point the doctors say there's nothing we can do to stop the cancer, but we can offer pain relief. At that point, the poor person concerned deserves a choice of ending things or carrying on.
    I think dementia and Alzheimer's should be treated similarly. It's no life at all. The person is a shell of their former selves and they and the family and other loved ones are stuck in perpetual state of purgatory waiting (and sadly sometimes looking forward) for death.
    I agree. My mother was a very intelligent witty dignified lady who sadly got dementia. She knew what was happening and just wanted to die. It took her four years to die during which time she lost all her dignity and was very unhappy. Unfortunately my memory of her is totally clouded by her last years.

    We look back at the times when homosexuality was a criminal offence in the UK and caused great unhappiness and in some cases suicide, and think - how could people be so uncaring and mistaken? I think in 20 years time we will be looking back at today's laws on assisted dying and saying the same thing.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,349
    franklyn said:

    Like all of us, I have been inundated with emails requesting permission to keep sending me emails.It's been a terrific bore, but might possibly reduce the amount of junk I get in my inbox.

    One organization who I haven't had such a request from is the ICO, the organization which runs all this nonsense, and who I presume understands the rules. Today I get a routine email from them (asking for money, what else).
    So my question is :
    Is the ICO itself in breech of all the rules, or have all the other emails been totally unnecessary? (It must be one or the other)

    Its a horrible complicated mess that no one completely understands and which awaits guidance which has yet to be published (seriously) but in general terms:

    If you have an existing business relationship with someone, eg you have actually bought their products or services before then permission is not required but you should disclose your privacy policy, explain the basis on which you are holding the information and give them the option of opting out.

    If you have a legitimate reason for holding the information, eg the ICO, they do not need permission to hold it. This is quite wide ranging. Eg the NHS has a legitimate reason for keeping your medical records. I have a legitimate reason for keeping the information provided to me to allow me to do the work I have been instructed to do etc. There are some serious gray areas about this because the underlying concept was supposed to be express rather than implied consent. It will be interesting to see how this shakes down.

    If you have bought up mailing lists etc and have no actual connection with the person then you do need their permission to continue emailing them or to hold any data about them including their email address.

    But from my selection of emails it is obvious that the majority of businesses have not worked out into which category they fall.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Pulpstar said:

    On Brexit, does anyone know if the current arrangement to be able to claim back say MwSt (German VAT) from supply performed in Germany through an EC sales reclaim will continue post March 2019 ?

    There is no definite answer to this, as with all other Brexit questions "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed." This system was designed to ensure that differing VAT rates in EU countries did not distort the single market (so all EU-produced goods carry VAT at the rate set by the country in which they are sold, not the one in which they are manufactured). If the UK leaves the single market then this would presumably fall by the wayside.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Barnesian said:

    MaxPB said:

    saddo said:

    Mr. Saddo/Mr. Max, I agree, though I'd be surprised if the law changes in the short term.

    There has to a line. That for me is the point the doctors say there's nothing we can do to stop the cancer, but we can offer pain relief. At that point, the poor person concerned deserves a choice of ending things or carrying on.
    I think dementia and Alzheimer's should be treated similarly. It's no life at all. The person is a shell of their former selves and they and the family and other loved ones are stuck in perpetual state of purgatory waiting (and sadly sometimes looking forward) for death.
    I agree. My mother was a very intelligent witty dignified lady who sadly got dementia. She knew what was happening and just wanted to die. It took her four years to die during which time she lost all her dignity and was very unhappy. Unfortunately my memory of her is totally clouded by her last years.

    We look back at the times when homosexuality was a criminal offence in the UK and caused great unhappiness and in some cases suicide, and think - how could people be so uncaring and mistaken? I think in 20 years time we will be looking back at today's laws on assisted dying and saying the same thing.
    Yes, having seen my own grandfather deteriorate over the last year I find myself in complete agreement. As a country we should have a debate about old age, care, dementia, assisted dying and our current policy of unlimited prolongation of life.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,954

    Pulpstar said:

    On Brexit, does anyone know if the current arrangement to be able to claim back say MwSt (German VAT) from supply performed in Germany through an EC sales reclaim will continue post March 2019 ?

    There is no definite answer to this, as with all other Brexit questions "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed." This system was designed to ensure that differing VAT rates in EU countries did not distort the single market (so all EU-produced goods carry VAT at the rate set by the country in which they are sold, not the one in which they are manufactured). If the UK leaves the single market then this would presumably fall by the wayside.
    Thanks - yes one to keep an eye on, and possibly a use for our dormant Irish subsidiary for exhibitions and 'work performed' in other EU countries.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    I assume that if the next election resulted in a hung parliament, if the LibDems held the balance of power they would ask for proper PR, Lab and Con would both say no, and we'd have another election. This would be a Bradlaugh moment - if the electorate could engineer a further inconclusive result, politicians might be forced to concede that FPTP has had its day. Otherwise, the circus will continue.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On Brexit, does anyone know if the current arrangement to be able to claim back say MwSt (German VAT) from supply performed in Germany through an EC sales reclaim will continue post March 2019 ?

    There is no definite answer to this, as with all other Brexit questions "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed." This system was designed to ensure that differing VAT rates in EU countries did not distort the single market (so all EU-produced goods carry VAT at the rate set by the country in which they are sold, not the one in which they are manufactured). If the UK leaves the single market then this would presumably fall by the wayside.
    Thanks - yes one to keep an eye on, and possibly a use for our dormant Irish subsidiary for exhibitions and 'work performed' in other EU countries.
    If this system stopped overnight there would be quite significant effects on prices charged for goods imported from the EU - one of the many complications of Brexit that is not generally understood and for which there is a complete absence of forward planning by government.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352
    MaxPB said:



    Yes, having seen my own grandfather deteriorate over the last year I find myself in complete agreement. As a country we should have a debate about old age, care, dementia, assisted dying and our current policy of unlimited prolongation of life.

    +1
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    What you are saying is that there needs to be a debt write off (effectively fiscal transfers) for an OCA to work.

    You are right.

    But there is no public support in Germany for it. (Which is why it didn’t happen in Greece).

    Essentially the German voters quite like having their cake and eating it. As well as everyone else’s cake.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,954
    It is not and should not be within Soros' gift whether we brexit or not.
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    Indigo1Indigo1 Posts: 47
    Pulpstar said:

    It is not and should not be within Soros' gift whether we brexit or not.
    It's not a complete shocker that the rabidly Europhile Mr Soros is banging the Project Fear drum for all its worth.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,194
    Pulpstar said:

    It is not and should not be within Soros' gift whether we brexit or not.
    Ha! I assumed that that would be about Italy...
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2018
    Jonathan said:

    brendan16 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:


    Yep, pensions will need to be cut in cash terms, and a massive sythe taken to tax credits and housing benefit.

    Healthcare bill only starts to come down with either large scale takeup of private insurance or emigration. Structural issues around social care provision obviously are in desperate need of fixing.

    The government needs to have a very long and very hard thing about life prolongment within the NHS. I'll use my own grandfather as an example, he's 89 years old and has a very poor quality of life. He suffers from Alzheimer's, he doesn't really know what is going on around him. Unfortunately the DNR question was never asked when he was able to answer the question and my two uncles are complete numpties and won't agree to one being signed (they have LPA along with my dad and aunt). The NHS is spending thousands of pounds prolonging his miserable existence (I don't mean that in a miserly sense, he is absolutely miserable all the time) and they shouldn't be.

    I think there needs to be an all party commission look at up to what age life prolonging treatment can reasonably be funded by the state. I know NICE has an element of that now but it should be codified.
    We are having a lengthy debate about abortion and the right to control our own bodies.

    Yet we let our elderly - many of whom still have their faculties - to suffer in pain and misery in hospital and in care homes with zero quality of life costing thousands a month. Frankly we treat ill dogs and horses more humanely than our parents and grandparents. If they want to go to avoid further pain and misery why not let them and can consent why not let them go with dignity when they choose.
    Your post belies the risks. Whilst I have no doubt compassion is at the heart of your opinion, there will be others out there with other motives to stop spending "thousands of pounds a month" .
    You are entitled to your morals - I just object to others being forced to suffer a hellish miserable last few months so you can feel morally worthy.

    In terms of thousands a month it is just going to a care home operator - which are mainly run by global property firms these days. I expect many would rather their family had the cash instead - and their suffering and misery was ended. Some people have no relatives at all to care for them - and barely get water let alone food every day. They are literally being dehydrated and starved to death. It is inhumane not moral.

    Like abortion no one expects you to agree with it - but you shouldn't deny others the right to exercise it if they wish.

    If you are legally allowed to kill a life growing inside you why aren't you allowed the same decision for yourself when you cannot care for yourself anymore.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,954
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It is not and should not be within Soros' gift whether we brexit or not.
    Ha! I assumed that that would be about Italy...
    Italy has been a salutory betting lesson about being somewhat greedy for me !
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Pulpstar, did you have a bet go awry? I thought the only talk here (I followed a bit because I backed it) was 5 Star likeliest to get most seats, which came off.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,106
    Pulpstar said:

    It is not and should not be within Soros' gift whether we brexit or not.
    His remarks are mostly not about Brexit and he says some things Eurosceptics will agree with.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    felix said:
    This would be the same Dawn Butler who falsely accused Costa Coffee of exploiting offshore tax havens....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,954

    Mr. Pulpstar, did you have a bet go awry? I thought the only talk here (I followed a bit because I backed it) was 5 Star likeliest to get most seats, which came off.

    Yep. In hindsight a fairly shameful bet, I've pmed you the details !
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,954

    Pulpstar said:

    It is not and should not be within Soros' gift whether we brexit or not.
    His remarks are mostly not about Brexit and he says some things Eurosceptics will agree with.
    I like to think the FT headlines are a fair representation of the body which I can't read due to their paywall.
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,435
    A good article on the politics of the Thameslink troubles.

    https://www.londonreconnections.com/2018/the-politics-of-thameslinks-troubles/

    Why was Grayling not transferred to the chair of the Conservative Party when Theresa had the opportunity?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711

    Pulpstar said:

    It is not and should not be within Soros' gift whether we brexit or not.
    His remarks are mostly not about Brexit and he says some things Eurosceptics will agree with.
    This is indeed true. Bascially the EU needs fundamental reform, so that it broadly works for all. If thats possible is another matter
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,657
    MaxPB said:

    What was that about the EU punishing troublesome countries.....

    https://twitter.com/quatremer/status/1001379744271753216?s=21

    They really haven't thought this through have they. The one thing keeping Poland and other rogue nations in favour of the EU is the annual bribe. If that goes away the people will easily turn against membership. Losing one country is definitely an issue, losing three or four is the end of the EU.
    One can but hope.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    What you are saying is that there needs to be a debt write off (effectively fiscal transfers) for an OCA to work.

    You are right.

    But there is no public support in Germany for it. (Which is why it didn’t happen in Greece).

    Essentially the German voters quite like having their cake and eating it. As well as everyone else’s cake.
    Unless those countries wth large surpluses are prepared to countenance serious fiscal transfers, then the Euro is going to be in serious trouble. The German surplus of close to €1trn is distorting the whole European economy.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    It is not and should not be within Soros' gift whether we brexit or not.
    Exactly - he didn't have much luck trying to interfere in the Hungarian elections so now he wants to overturn our democratic choices. Sorry Soros - not your business but ours. I am sure he will make a profit either way.

    Countries should be run on the basis of what the voters and people want - not what billionaires and big corporations think is good for them. Wouldn't that be something!
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    PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Is the OP suggesting that Labour may replace Corbyn cos the Lib Dems tell them to?!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,349
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    What you are saying is that there needs to be a debt write off (effectively fiscal transfers) for an OCA to work.

    You are right.

    But there is no public support in Germany for it. (Which is why it didn’t happen in Greece).

    Essentially the German voters quite like having their cake and eating it. As well as everyone else’s cake.
    Unless those countries wth large surpluses are prepared to countenance serious fiscal transfers, then the Euro is going to be in serious trouble. The German surplus of close to €1trn is distorting the whole European economy.
    Come on, this is the EU we are talking about here. The Germans are not told that E1trn of their taxes are at risk, the Italians and the Spanish are not made aware of the huge new liabilities that they are incurring and everything is just rolled over in the vague hope it will go away. So we still have Greece with debts of 179% of its GDP and everyone extends and pretends that one day some of that will get paid back.

    This only becomes a crisis when the debtors indicate that they might stop pretending as Greece did when trying to force through a default and as Italy are threatening to do now. It will be made clear to them that the consequences of doing so and stopping the pretense are severe. And don't think the views of the Italian populace matter a damn either. We've been down that road already and it did not end well.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    What you are saying is that there needs to be a debt write off (effectively fiscal transfers) for an OCA to work.

    You are right.

    But there is no public support in Germany for it. (Which is why it didn’t happen in Greece).

    Essentially the German voters quite like having their cake and eating it. As well as everyone else’s cake.
    Unless those countries wth large surpluses are prepared to countenance serious fiscal transfers, then the Euro is going to be in serious trouble. The German surplus of close to €1trn is distorting the whole European economy.
    Come on, this is the EU we are talking about here. The Germans are not told that E1trn of their taxes are at risk, the Italians and the Spanish are not made aware of the huge new liabilities that they are incurring and everything is just rolled over in the vague hope it will go away. So we still have Greece with debts of 179% of its GDP and everyone extends and pretends that one day some of that will get paid back.

    This only becomes a crisis when the debtors indicate that they might stop pretending as Greece did when trying to force through a default and as Italy are threatening to do now. It will be made clear to them that the consequences of doing so and stopping the pretense are severe. And don't think the views of the Italian populace matter a damn either. We've been down that road already and it did not end well.
    As I said the solution for Italy is to leave the EMU, renominate all of its domestic debt into Lira and then inflate it away. If the ECB doesn't like being paid in Lira then it really is their problem, not Italy's. What are they going to do, roll in a panzer division and demand the money back?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,106
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    What you are saying is that there needs to be a debt write off (effectively fiscal transfers) for an OCA to work.

    You are right.

    But there is no public support in Germany for it. (Which is why it didn’t happen in Greece).

    Essentially the German voters quite like having their cake and eating it. As well as everyone else’s cake.
    Unless those countries wth large surpluses are prepared to countenance serious fiscal transfers, then the Euro is going to be in serious trouble. The German surplus of close to €1trn is distorting the whole European economy.
    Come on, this is the EU we are talking about here. The Germans are not told that E1trn of their taxes are at risk, the Italians and the Spanish are not made aware of the huge new liabilities that they are incurring and everything is just rolled over in the vague hope it will go away. So we still have Greece with debts of 179% of its GDP and everyone extends and pretends that one day some of that will get paid back.

    This only becomes a crisis when the debtors indicate that they might stop pretending as Greece did when trying to force through a default and as Italy are threatening to do now. It will be made clear to them that the consequences of doing so and stopping the pretense are severe. And don't think the views of the Italian populace matter a damn either. We've been down that road already and it did not end well.
    As I said the solution for Italy is to leave the EMU, renominate all of its domestic debt into Lira and then inflate it away. If the ECB doesn't like being paid in Lira then it really is their problem, not Italy's. What are they going to do, roll in a panzer division and demand the money back?
    How much of Italy's domestic debt is owed to other Italians?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    What you are saying is that there needs to be a debt write off (effectively fiscal transfers) for an OCA to work.

    You are right.

    But there is no public support in Germany for it. (Which is why it didn’t happen in Greece).

    Essentially the German voters quite like having their cake and eating it. As well as everyone else’s cake.
    Unless those countries wth large surpluses are prepared to countenance serious fiscal transfers, then the Euro is going to be in serious trouble. The German surplus of close to €1trn is distorting the whole European economy.
    Come on, this is the EU we are talking about here. The Germans are not told that E1trn of their taxes are at risk, the Italians and the Spanish are not made aware of the huge new liabilities that they are incurring and everything is just rolled over in the vague hope it will go away. So we still have Greece with debts of 179% of its GDP and everyone extends and pretends that one day some of that will get paid back.

    This only becomes a crisis when the debtors indicate that they might stop pretending as Greece did when trying to force through a default and as Italy are threatening to do now. It will be made clear to them that the consequences of doing so and stopping the pretense are severe. And don't think the views of the Italian populace matter a damn either. We've been down that road already and it did not end well.
    As I said the solution for Italy is to leave the EMU, renominate all of its domestic debt into Lira and then inflate it away. If the ECB doesn't like being paid in Lira then it really is their problem, not Italy's. What are they going to do, roll in a panzer division and demand the money back?
    How much of Italy's domestic debt is owed to other Italians?
    Yes and the ECB. International buyers usually buy periphery debt sold in London to protect themselves from this outcome.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    What you are saying is that there needs to be a debt write off (effectively fiscal transfers) for an OCA to work.

    You are right.

    But there is no public support in Germany for it. (Which is why it didn’t happen in Greece).

    Essentially the German voters quite like having their cake and eating it. As well as everyone else’s cake.
    Unless those countries wth large surpluses are prepared to countenance serious fiscal transfers, then the Euro is going to be in serious trouble. The German surplus of close to €1trn is distorting the whole European economy.
    Come on, this is the EU we are talkingend well.
    As I said the solution for Italy is to leave the EMU, renominate all of its domestic debt into Lira and then inflate it away. If the ECB doesn't like being paid in Lira then it really is their problem, not Italy's. What are they going to do, roll in a panzer division and demand the money back?
    Tough one

    what do you reckon would happen when the dust settles ?

    Euro rises as its weaker members peel off - big hit to German industry
    Euro falls due to uncertainty - Germans get a bigger surplus
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,349
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    What you are saying is that there needs to be a debt write off (effectively fiscal transfers) for an OCA to work.

    You are right.

    But there is no public support in Germany for it. (Which is why it didn’t happen in Greece).

    Essentially the German voters quite like having their cake and eating it. As well as everyone else’s cake.
    Unless those countries wth large surpluses are prepared to countenance serious fiscal transfers, then the Euro is going to be in serious trouble. The German surplus of close to €1trn is distorting the whole European economy.
    Come on, this is the EU we are talking about here. The Germans are not told that E1trn of their taxes are at risk, the Italians and the Spanish are not made aware of the huge new liabilities that they are incurring and everything is just rolled over in the vague hope it will go away. So we still have Greece with debts of 179% of its GDP and everyone extends and pretends that one day some of that will get paid back.

    This only becomes a crisis when the debtors indicate that they might stop pretending as Greece did when trying to force through a default and as Italy are threatening to do now. It will be made clear to them that the consequences of doing so and stopping the pretense are severe. And don't think the views of the Italian populace matter a damn either. We've been down that road already and it did not end well.
    As I said the solution for Italy is to leave the EMU, renominate all of its domestic debt into Lira and then inflate it away. If the ECB doesn't like being paid in Lira then it really is their problem, not Italy's. What are they going to do, roll in a panzer division and demand the money back?
    They would refuse to accept collateral from Italian banks. Which means that they would have no drawing rights in respect of Euros. Which means unless an alternative currency is up and running immediately the entire banking system collapses. Which means no pay, no pensions, no sales, nothing. Who the hell needs tanks? That is so 20th century.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    What you are saying is that there needs to be a debt write off (effectively fiscal transfers) for an OCA to work.

    You are right.

    But there is no public support in Germany for it. (Which is why it didn’t happen in Greece).

    Essentially the German voters quite like having their cake and eating it. As well as everyone else’s cake.
    Unless those countries wth large surpluses are prepared to countenance serious fiscal transfers, then the Euro is going to be in serious trouble. The German surplus of close to €1trn is distorting the whole European economy.
    Come on, this is the EU we are talking about here. The Germans are not told that E1trn of their taxes are at risk, the Italians and the Spanish are not made aware of the huge new liabilities that they are incurring and everything is just rolled over in the vague hope it will go away. So we still have Greece with debts of 179% of its GDP and everyone extends and pretends that one day some of that will get paid back.

    This only becomes a crisis when the debtors indicate that they might stop pretending as Greece did when trying to force through a default and as Italy are threatening to do now. It will be made clear to them that the consequences of doing so and stopping the pretense are severe. And don't think the views of the Italian populace matter a damn either. We've been down that road already and it did not end well.
    As I said the solution for Italy is to leave the EMU, renominate all of its domestic debt into Lira and then inflate it away. If the ECB doesn't like being paid in Lira then it really is their problem, not Italy's. What are they going to do, roll in a panzer division and demand the money back?
    How much of Italy's domestic debt is owed to other Italians?
    The only solution of course is a single European budget, government and central bank.

  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    This page contains a table of the target2 balances to March: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.

    What you are saying is that there needs to be a debt write off (effectively fiscal transfers) for an OCA to work.

    You are right.

    But there is no public support in Germany for it. (Which is why it didn’t happen in Greece).

    Essentially the German voters quite like having their cake and eating it. As well as everyone else’s cake.
    Unless those countries wth large surpluses are prepared to countenance serious fiscal transfers, then the Euro is going to be in serious trouble. The German surplus of close to €1trn is distorting the whole European economy.
    Come on, this is the EU we are talkingend well.
    As I said the solution for Italy is to leave the EMU, renominate all of its domestic debt into Lira and then inflate it away. If the ECB doesn't like being paid in Lira then it really is their problem, not Italy's. What are they going to do, roll in a panzer division and demand the money back?
    Tough one

    what do you reckon would happen when the dust settles ?

    Euro rises as its weaker members peel off - big hit to German industry
    Euro falls due to uncertainty - Germans get a bigger surplus
    If the Euro survives it would be the former. However, if Italy leaves the EMU then I think the whole thing falls apart. There's no way France and Spain would be able to live with a competitive devaluation in Italy. Much like Brexit, though, the EU will want to prove to the rest of the members that there is no life outside of the EU (or in Italy's case EMU) so I expect trade embargoes etc... to be threatened. The most dangerous thing for the EU is someone leaving and being successful on the outside. That's true for the UK as much as it is true for Italy.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,103
    edited May 2018
    brendan16 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:


    Yep, pensions will need to be cut in cash terms, and a massive sythe taken to tax credits and housing benefit.

    Healthcare bill only starts to come down with either large scale takeup of private insurance or emigration. Structural issues around social care provision obviously are in desperate need of fixing.

    The government needs to have a very long and very hard thing about life prolongment within the NHS. I'll use my own grandfather as an example, he's 89 years old and has a very poor quality of life. He suffers from Alzheimer's, he doesn't really know what is going on around him. Unfortunately the DNR question was never asked when he was able to answer the question and my two uncles are complete numpties and won't agree to one being signed (they have LPA along with my dad and aunt). The NHS is spending thousands of pounds prolonging his miserable existence (I don't mean that in a miserly sense, he is absolutely miserable all the time) and they shouldn't be.

    I think there needs to be an all party commission look at up to what age life prolonging treatment can reasonably be funded by the state. I know NICE has an element of that now but it should be codified.
    We are having a lengthy debate about abortion and the right to control our own bodies.

    Yet we let our elderly - many of whom still have their faculties - to suffer in pain and misery in hospital and in care homes with zero quality of life costing thousands a month. Frankly we treat ill dogs and horses more humanely than our parents and grandparents. If they want to go to avoid further pain and misery why not let them and can consent why not let them go with dignity when they choose.
    Its madness to be spending so much wealth on the last few, low quality years of people's lives while impoverishing them in their twenties and so potentially stunting the rest of their lives.
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