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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A very British coup. A way back for the defeated centre?
These have been dark times for pragmatic politicians. Both the Conservative party and the Labour party have been taken over by politicians pursuing projects for ideological reasons, uninterested in any evidence as to whether those projects were actually beneficial for the nation. In both parties, moderates have been marginalised as the extremists compete to apply purity tests for their projects.
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And do what?
https://medium.com/@DuncanWeldon/the-eurocrisis-redux-or-why-italy-wont-leave-the-euro-b7c64f59f69d
[Well, to a limited extent. Got up early due to a coughing fit and just vomited somewhat. Not terrible but it is irksome].
An interesting perspective. Although it's happened before, it's unlikely the numbers will stack up quite so conveniently.
Incidentally, I find I much prefer the BBC News at 5am.
It does seem the ANC is going to put through legislation to confiscate white farmland.
May and Hammond are not ideologues.
I'm not sure moderate Labour MPs are opposed to Corbyn. What they were worried about was getting thumped at an election.
In the scenario you set out, I think we'd have another election. Jezza would not be standing aside to placate the Lib Dems, that I am certain of.
Party on 7% dictates terms and leader to a party on 40%. Minority ideologues taking control seems an apt description.
I'm not sure all minority views are better or worse than majority views.
Edited extra bit: to clarify, suit Mercedes in that I expect Ferrari to be fastest in the dry. Of the top chaps, Red Bull would be happiest with a soggy weekend.
The counterparty to the Italian (and indeed other southern European deficits) on target2 is the massive credits held by Germany in particular. If there is a default they will, at least on paper, suffer a major financial hit.
This works both ways. By refusing to take any more Italian bonds as collateral the ECB has the power to close the Italian banking system almost overnight since they will lose the ability to draw cash from their lender of last resort. By threatening to default on this debt Italy can scare northern countries rigid. A technocratic government will keep to the straight and narrow. Who knows what a government of populists with a series of unsustainable promises to keep might do.
NB the SNP might relish the opportunity to make havoc within Labour too.
However, if you've only got 14 seats it's quite unlikely the numbers turn out exactly right for you to be kingmaker.
Why would you expect Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott et al. to vote for a government where Corbyn is not the head rather than just holding out for another election where they could win a majority?
And if the Corbyn supportive MPs are against it - then to get to a majority you'd need another 20-30 MPs. Seems very unlikely you'd get that from the Tories...
The Italians have a deficit of 442bn. The Germans a surplus of 923bn. Spain has a deficit of 381bn. The Netherlands a surplus of 112bn. These kinds of balances have really only developed since 2008. Before that the balances at the ECB for everyone were very small. This is how the ECB has kept the yields of Euro denominated debt low, even of countries with excess debt like Italy. It has kept the show on the road but is it really sustainable? That is the key to what happens next.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-uk-citizenship-eu-nationality-foreign-nationals-passport-countries-a8369706.html
The cheeky sods are rinsing those that choose the renounce their British citizenship for an extra 50 quid.
An equally interesting scenario would be a small Labour majority, where the reality within the PLP is that anything the leadership might promote that is radically left wing would be way short of a parliamentary majority, and there would be enough Soubry-equivalents always willing to rebel.
If he kept the Labour leadership, he might content himself with using party levers of power.
In a well hung Parliament, there would have to be an innovative solution.
As we saw under Brown, Labour MPs tend to form into three groups: bullies, drones and cowards.
The irony therefore is that for power, the likes of Mary Creagh would cheerfully pass a law ordering the eating of firstborn children by wild wolves if Corbyn proposed it. The likes of State-sponsored theft of politically attractive companies or restrictions on the press (both of which they think of as Good Things anyway) they will wave through without a murmur.
"Having Hamilton and Mikado in the same team would be great for the sport"
The likes of Corbyn or JRM, who find themselves in what appear to be safe seats exercise that power by being, in their minds, the custodians of the True Faith.
The Tories are not by any means immune to the latter tendency but New Labour were particularly egregious in that regard. That's how you end up with sad disasters like the Iraq War, top-up fees and Stephen Byers repeatedly misleading Parliament.
The irony is whatever his faults Corbyn is undoubtedly after power for the former reason. His prescriptions are totally wrong-headed and would make matters far worse but he's certainly not after power for its own sake.
synopsis
-Angie opens borders in 2015
- Immigration office overwhelmed by cases
- Angie says wave them through delays are making us look bad
- so they do and ignore all procedures
- bit of bribery thrown in to make it all more scandalous
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article176765501/BAMF-Krise-Das-Kanzleramt-traegt-die-Verantwortung.html
The reality would probably be another election a few months down the line, with whichever of the main parties isn’t leading the government having a change of leader in the interim.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/05/ricciardo-where-to-in-2019.html
May I recommend this book to you?
https://www.amazon.co.uk/When-Money-Dies-Nightmare-Hyper-inflation/dp/1910400300
The problem is that the more talk there is about it, the more Italians will be emptying their bank accounts - making the problem worse. When people don’t have faith in the future of their currency or the banking system in their country, the result is piles of Benjamins literally kept under the mattress.
Non-trivial when your debt is over two trillion Euros...
https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1474521/bbc-yingluck-gets-10-year-visa-from-uk
So we did have a choice and we funked it. At the same time, we are bearing down on hundreds of thousands of people whose status is uncertain although they cause no damage to anyone.
Great. What could possibly go wrong?
Only one has worked so far....
Equally hasn't ever model for Euro breakup shown that it is better for the Netherlands and Germany to leave as it will have less impact than Italy (or co) leaving.
On blogspot commenting, it works ok for e (via PC). You could try signing into a Google account, though I suspect the same problem might occur. Not sure why. It's annoying though, I rather like reading comments (I do go back to old articles sometimes when looking ahead to a race, so having comments there is useful for a long while).
Of course perpetual inflation/depreciation was how the Italian model worked before the Euro. It was not necessary to repay debt which was consistently being inflated away so the country could run a perpetual deficit without suffering significant damage. Such an approach also seemed to encourage investment since the value of the assets increased while the value of the debt to buy them decreased. Once the Euro stopped that their model seized up.
Sound familiar ?
Mr. Brooke, who determines the timing of elections, though?
If the LDs do hold the balance of power after the next general election it is also very unlikely the Labour membership would agree to remove Corbyn. So if the LDs then abstained in a confidence vote and Labour + nationalists + Greens > Tories + DUP then Corbyn would become PM in all likelihood even though the Tories have won most seats, in post-war British politics an unprecedented scenario. The LDs would then take up a vote by vote position on each bill the new government put forward so in practice Corbyn would though still be reliant on the LDs to get any legislation through the Commons.
if the president is deciding who can govern rather than the electorate then the rules are a bit fluid to say the least .
this is being charitable i suppose.
the alternate view is that the euro elite are trying to stop populists by non democratic means.
what do you think ?
her biggest exposure on this is vetting procedures were ignored. So as well as letting migrnts who were clearly economic through, there has be no checking of people with dubious pasts. Chuck in that officials were allegedly bribed to move people further up the queue and Merkel has just blown a huge hole in Europe's immigration controls. Presumably anyone waived through can now just turn up in an EU country of their choice.
English speaking, hard working, skilled and with high employment rates:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentbycountryofbirthandnationalityemp06
I could imagine that Corbyn would step aside if he believed the project would continue.
I don't think Corbyn would be swayed by intense pressure from the media, business and financial markets. [As an aside, given how long other countries seem to go without govts, I'm not sure he should be swayed all that much]
™Cons
But would Hamilton, Schumacher-style, threaten to flounce if his team mate turned out to be another Alonso or Rosberg?
Merkel follows in the tradition of German leaders that pieces of paper are worthless as soon as she decides they are.
The populist parties have asked for £250bn of this debt to be "cancelled". That would require the cancellation of similar levels of credits, unless the ECB simply prints the lost money to pay the Germans etc.
Alternatively, the Germans may seek to regain control of the ECB and impose some fiscal discipline thereby creating a default situation. They cannot be happy with this.
I don’t think Lewis will care too much about who’s his team mate, he’s confident he can beat anyone - unlike Vettel, who was already beaten by Ricciardo when they were team mates before.
Oh wait, US is prosecuting the head of AUDI US and is trying to get their hands on Martin Winterkorn former head of VW Group.
Odd that in Europe which is VWs biggest market nobody is being pursued for100,000s of premature deaths.
Ferrari is the main one. But Vettel has a say. And Hamilton won't be around for as long as Ricciardo.
Mr. Sandpit, I agree with much of that (indeed, wrote much the same before seeing your comment), except that I think Hamilton's 'unlikely' comment is his sly way of trying to push Ricciardo away.
Hamilton's very good. But Ricciardo is too. Hamilton undoubtedly enjoys his de facto number one status.
http://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i298/colin_kidd_at_policy_exchange.aspx