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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A sign of LAB confidence in Lewisham East: Local party chief g

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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,828
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:



    While simultaneously exclaiming how much better this is than watching The Last Jedi;

    Solo is released on Thursday!
    The trailers have looked pretty awful - it may be the first bad new Star Wars movie.
    Have you not watched Attack of the Clones or The Last Jedi?
    The Last Jedi was far superior to Attack of the Clones!
    About the same level. Both awful in their own way.
    Not really. Attack of the Clones was doubly disappointing, as it confirmed that Phantom Menace wasn't just a one-off in being crap and that there was something seriously wrong with Lucas (basically he's good at vision but bad at detail, characters, pacing, dialogue) The Last Jedi has problems (many, many problems) but is not as bad as AotC.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,828

    So I see that the OBR's March 2018 borrowing forecast was £5bn too high for the year ending in March 2018.

    Or if we look back further its November 2017 borrowing forecast was £10bn too high and the forecast from March 2017 was £18bn too high.

    Likewise its March 2017 borrowing forecast for the year ending March 2017 was again £5bn too high and its November 2016 borrowing forecast for that year was £22bn too high.

    Curiously these too high forecasts only seem to have started after the Referendum and George Osborne's departure. Before then the OBR had rather a habit of underforecasting government borrowing much to the benefit of George Osborne, the man who had created the OBR.

    I may have told you this before, but there is some handbags between statisticians and the OBR, as the latter employs economists (grinds teeth) at a higher salary than the former can usually get. Economists are perfectly nice people and are no doubt kind to their mums but do have this annoying habit of getting jobs that involves making projections that they never get fired for even if they totally fuck up, whereas statisticians get sneered at for getting one decimal point wrong.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:



    While simultaneously exclaiming how much better this is than watching The Last Jedi;

    Solo is released on Thursday!
    The trailers have looked pretty awful - it may be the first bad new Star Wars movie.
    Have you not watched Attack of the Clones or The Last Jedi?
    The Last Jedi was far superior to Attack of the Clones!
    About the same level. Both awful in their own way.
    Not really. Attack of the Clones was doubly disappointing, as it confirmed that Phantom Menace wasn't just a one-off in being crap and that there was something seriously wrong with Lucas (basically he's good at vision but bad at detail, characters, pacing, dialogue) The Last Jedi has problems (many, many problems) but is not as bad as AotC.
    "It's all a machine, partner. Live Free, don't join!"
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    I have a theory that when life is generally rather boring and slow-moving people are more likely to consider voting for radical political parties because they're fed up with stasis and nothing much happening, whereas when it's more fast-moving and there's a lot of change taking place outside of politics itself they tend to react against it by voting more often for conservative parties. So for instance in the 1970s centre-left parties were very successful all over Europe. Since the advent of the internet, smartphones, etc, radical parties have been doing rather badly in most western countries. Anyone think there's anything in it?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Do they have an alternate universe where they can see what GDP growth would have been? Or is this just speculation on their part?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,828

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:



    While simultaneously exclaiming how much better this is than watching The Last Jedi;

    Solo is released on Thursday!
    The trailers have looked pretty awful - it may be the first bad new Star Wars movie.
    Have you not watched Attack of the Clones or The Last Jedi?
    The Last Jedi was far superior to Attack of the Clones!
    About the same level. Both awful in their own way.
    Not really. Attack of the Clones was doubly disappointing, as it confirmed that Phantom Menace wasn't just a one-off in being crap and that there was something seriously wrong with Lucas (basically he's good at vision but bad at detail, characters, pacing, dialogue) The Last Jedi has problems (many, many problems) but is not as bad as AotC.
    "It's all a machine, partner. Live Free, don't join!"
    "...If one is to understand the great mystery, one must study all its aspects..."
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Today's YouGov poll would give the following seats:

    Con 326
    Lab 246
    LD 17
    SNP 39
    PC 3
    Greens 1
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:



    While simultaneously exclaiming how much better this is than watching The Last Jedi;

    Solo is released on Thursday!
    The trailers have looked pretty awful - it may be the first bad new Star Wars movie.
    Have you not watched Attack of the Clones or The Last Jedi?
    The Last Jedi was far superior to Attack of the Clones!
    About the same level. Both awful in their own way.
    Not really. Attack of the Clones was doubly disappointing, as it confirmed that Phantom Menace wasn't just a one-off in being crap and that there was something seriously wrong with Lucas (basically he's good at vision but bad at detail, characters, pacing, dialogue) The Last Jedi has problems (many, many problems) but is not as bad as AotC.
    "It's all a machine, partner. Live Free, don't join!"
    "...If one is to understand the great mystery, one must study all its aspects..."
    That was from Revenge of the Sith :)
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,828
    AndyJS said:

    I have a theory that when life is generally rather boring and slow-moving people are more likely to consider voting for radical political parties because they're fed up with stasis and nothing much happening, whereas when it's more fast-moving and there's a lot of change taking place outside of politics itself they tend to react against it by voting more often for conservative parties. So for instance in the 1970s centre-left parties were very successful all over Europe. Since the advent of the internet, smartphones, etc, radical parties have been doing rather badly in most western countries. Anyone think there's anything in it?

    It's perhaps a little late to give it the attention the question deserves, alas.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,004
    Hi all,

    I have a new video out: Is It Time to Buy US Airlines?

    https://youtu.be/cot_Uvc7ZbA

    Please all watch and subscribe :)
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,003
    May has done a decent job of keeping an air of relative normalcy about this fiasco but I do feel that the shroud could be rent at any moment. At that point all will be in flux and just about anything could happen. Betting on a 2018 GE feels like value at the moment to me.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    rcs1000 said:

    Hi all,

    I have a new video out: Is It Time to Buy US Airlines?

    https://youtu.be/cot_Uvc7ZbA

    Please all watch and subscribe :)

    Didn't American Airlines buy US Airways??

    (I'll get me coat..)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited May 2018
    Customs Union or partnership is possible, with Corbyn backing it too.

    EEA is not going to happen, May would be no confidenced and likely lose that vote to be replaced by PM Boris, Mogg or Gove. Tory members and voters will not countenance free movement staying in place and Corbyn committing to leaving the single market but not May
  • Options
    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    HYUFD said:

    Customs Union or partnership is possible, with Corbyn backing it too.

    EEA is not going to happen, May would be no confidenced and likely lose that vote to be replaced by PM Boris, Mogg or Gove. Tory members and voters will not countenance free movement staying in place and Corbyn committing to leaving the single market but not May
    The trouble with saying XXXXX is not going to happen is that one of the outcomes will occur and they all seem possible in one way or another - perhaps EEA is more likely than folk realise
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,711
    Opening para in an appeal judgment:

    His Honour Judge Davy QC, before whom this matter was heard at first instance, bore witness to a festival of mendacity. The judge warned the parties that he intended to send a transcript of his judgment together with the case papers to the Director of Public Prosecutions. My inquiries have revealed that, in the event, this was not done. That is an omission which this Court intends to put right.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,711
    I think I'll wait to see the questions asked....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/999039082004086790
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    RobD said:

    Do they have an alternate universe where they can see what GDP growth would have been? Or is this just speculation on their part?
    They didn't see the financial crisis, why should we believe them now?
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    I think I'll wait to see the questions asked....

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/999039082004086790

    OK. So let's have an elected HoL then.

    Plus the Tories bickering about Brexit, what is new ?
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    HYUFD said:

    Customs Union or partnership is possible, with Corbyn backing it too.

    EEA is not going to happen, May would be no confidenced and likely lose that vote to be replaced by PM Boris, Mogg or Gove. Tory members and voters will not countenance free movement staying in place and Corbyn committing to leaving the single market but not May
    The trouble with saying XXXXX is not going to happen is that one of the outcomes will occur and they all seem possible in one way or another - perhaps EEA is more likely than folk realise
    The EEA is very much possible. Even Dan Hannan was for it. The UK will be leaving the EU if we are in the EEA. But the CU is more important.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    New thread!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    Customs Union or partnership is possible, with Corbyn backing it too.

    EEA is not going to happen, May would be no confidenced and likely lose that vote to be replaced by PM Boris, Mogg or Gove. Tory members and voters will not countenance free movement staying in place and Corbyn committing to leaving the single market but not May
    The trouble with saying XXXXX is not going to happen is that one of the outcomes will occur and they all seem possible in one way or another - perhaps EEA is more likely than folk realise
    The EEA is very much possible. Even Dan Hannan was for it. The UK will be leaving the EU if we are in the EEA. But the CU is more important.
    Not for most Leave voters it isn't
This discussion has been closed.