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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A sign of LAB confidence in Lewisham East: Local party chief gets sacked days before the postals go out

Given that the outgoing MP, Heidi Alexander, secured 69% of the vote at GE2017 it has been very hard to predict anything other than a Labour hold. That was why, in the eyes of many, the party’s selection battle was the real fight.

Read the full story here

RobD

First

HYUFD

2nd place in Lewisham East

Tories 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017

LDs 2010

1st place in Lewisham East

Tories 1987

'LDs can't win here, Only the Tories can beat Labour in Lewisham East!'

Sean_F

I presume it was intended to be a joke, but unwise for someone in his position.

Morris_Dancer

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

MaxPB

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

Ishmael_Z said:

MaxPB said:

I do love the Turkey/EU discussion.

EU - "Turkey are joining the EU"
Turkey - "We are joining the EU"
UK - "We support Turkey joining the EU"

Vote Leave - "Turkey are joining the EU"

Remain - "XENOPHOBIC LIES!"

It's the LIES bit that puzzles me. A wholehearted remainer would surely welcome the accession of millions of very poor Muslims to The Project as making it even more glorious than it is now. Unless they have something against Muslims...

We've got something against twats.

As has been rehearsed many times on here, Turkey is joining the EU in the same way as Macclesfield Town is winning the Champions League.

That might be true, but the campaign was free to take the statement from the EU/Turkey/UK government at face value and then not having anyone refute that was absolutely stupid. Dave could have easily said "we'll give the people a say on whether Turkey can join" and kicked the issue into the long grass. That he didn't just made them look like they were trying to hide something.

Maybe, maybe not - no one is saying Remain played their A game. But the point that @AlastairMeeks makes time after time is valid. Leave used a nasty, xenophobic campaign to shore up support, they opened Pandora's Box (sans espoir), and validated a view of foreigners that will take years to nullify if ever.

I don't think it's as bad as all that. If you look across the whole of Europe the two top concerns are immigration and terrorism (part of the same issue IMO).

RoyalBlue

FPT:

You don’t have to be a Catholic, or even religious, to be against abortion.

I think Repeal are going to lose. The BBC and Guardian will have a meltdown.

MaxPB

DavidL said:

The last point is really the point being made by the proposed Italian government who want to cancel €250bn of loans from the ECB. Don’t fancy their chances of persuading the Germans of that.

I think the difference is that there is multi-party liability at the ECB while the UK government holds all the liability for BoE debt. If the ECB cancelled Italian bonds then the Germans would hold some liability at some level.

HHemmelig

HYUFD said:

2nd place in Lewisham East

Tories 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017

LDs 2010

1st place in Lewisham East

Tories 1987

'LDs can't win here, Only the Tories can beat Labour in Lewisham East!'

The Lib Dems will probably do quite well around Blackheath. However the bulk of Lewisham East is quite working class. Outside Blackheath, the council seats the Lib Dems held around a decade ago were primarily in the council estate wards around Downham. These days they will have very little luck in those areas, not just because of memories of the coalition but because of the major demographic shifts there, from white working class to black, and from council tenure / right to buy owner occupiers to private renting.

The Lib Dems might perhaps pip the Tories into a poor second place on a good day but they'll be a million miles behind Labour here.

HYUFD

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

2nd place in Lewisham East

Tories 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017

LDs 2010

1st place in Lewisham East

Tories 1987

'LDs can't win here, Only the Tories can beat Labour in Lewisham East!'

The Lib Dems will probably do quite well around Blackheath. However the bulk of Lewisham East is quite working class. Outside Blackheath council seats the Lib Dems held around a decade ago were primarily in the council estate wards around Downham. These days they will have very little luck in those areas, not just because of memories of the coalition but because of the major demographic shifts there, from white working class to black, and from council tenure / right to buy owner occupiers to private renting.

The Lib Dems might perhaps pip the Tories into a poor second place on a good day but they'll be a million miles behind Labour here.

Agreed

DavidL

Kinder, gentler politics everywhere you look.

But nothing is going to make this seat competitive.

DavidL

Does anyone know what odds you can get on 60% + yes in the Irish referendum?

JonnyJimmy

fpt

DecrepitJohnL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/998890843481235457

Duddridge has form for attacking Bercow. This is from last year.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/business-papers/commons/early-day-motions/edm-detail1/?edmnumber=943&session=2016-17

It's a bit rude the way he stands when he's talking to Berco

RoyalBlue

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

surby

Sean_F said:

I presume it was intended to be a joke, but unwise for someone in his position.

A very poor silly joke

HHemmelig

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

2nd place in Lewisham East

Tories 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017

LDs 2010

1st place in Lewisham East

Tories 1987

'LDs can't win here, Only the Tories can beat Labour in Lewisham East!'

The Lib Dems will probably do quite well around Blackheath. However the bulk of Lewisham East is quite working class. Outside Blackheath council seats the Lib Dems held around a decade ago were primarily in the council estate wards around Downham. These days they will have very little luck in those areas, not just because of memories of the coalition but because of the major demographic shifts there, from white working class to black, and from council tenure / right to buy owner occupiers to private renting.

The Lib Dems might perhaps pip the Tories into a poor second place on a good day but they'll be a million miles behind Labour here.

Agreed

The Lib Dems will have a good base of support with middle class arch-Remainers around Blackheath, and the Tories retain a fair few votes at the opposite end of the seat, on the Bromley border around Grove Park.

Therefore IMO it is likely the Lib Dems and Tories will be quite close for second, but Labour will sweep through most of the rest of the seat and win with a vote share of 50% plus.

Morris_Dancer

F1: some more specials on Ladbrokes, but none appeal (one, 401, has both Mercedes to DNF but no safety car).

Mr. L, Ladbrokes has 4 for 60-70%, 17 for over 70%.

Favourite is 1.66 for 50-60%. Given that, 5.5 for No looks somewhat tempting. Thoughts?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Blue, interesting couple of thoughts. I still stroke my chin, sip my tea, and contemplate this.

DavidL

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

The last point is really the point being made by the proposed Italian government who want to cancel €250bn of loans from the ECB. Don’t fancy their chances of persuading the Germans of that.

I think the difference is that there is multi-party liability at the ECB while the UK government holds all the liability for BoE debt. If the ECB cancelled Italian bonds then the Germans would hold some liability at some level.

Well on paper they might but, as you say, it’s not a real debt. Just like with the BoE it’s never going to be repaid.

My concern with the BoE is that if politicians get away with this once they will do it again. Probably pretty similar to the Germans to be fair!

DecrepitJohnL

DavidL said:

Does anyone know what odds you can get on 60% + yes in the Irish referendum?

Ladbrokes and Corals have (according to Oddschecker which can be a bit behind)
3/1 60-70%
16/1 over 70%
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/irish-politics/8th-amendment-referendum/yes-vote-percentage

logical_song

HYUFD said:

2nd place in Lewisham East

Tories 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017

LDs 2010

1st place in Lewisham East

Tories 1987

'LDs can't win here, Only the Tories can beat Labour in Lewisham East!'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
Ladbrokes make the LibDems 5 times more likely to win than the Tories, but Labour 100 times more likely still.
However it's a by-election, so could be used to send a message - has been known.

Scrapheap_as_was

Owen Jones seeking revenge on a long-standing Labour man rather than taking the fight to the Tories.....

Or is that defence only to be used by Corbynistas at times of strife?

CarlottaVance

Sean_F said:

I presume it was intended to be a joke, but unwise for someone in his position.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/998880804829790209

https://twitter.com/iMcKenzied/status/998885551511044096

https://twitter.com/lindasgrant/status/998878721678479360

Sunil_Prasannan

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

Where Great Britain leads, Ireland lags behind:

Legalisation of same-sex relations:
E & W. 1967, Scot. 1980, NI 1982, Ireland 1993

Legalisation of divorce:
UK 1937, Ireland 1997

Legalisation of abortion:
E & W, Sct. 1967, NI illegal, Ireland illegal

TOPPING

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

Ishmael_Z said:

MaxPB said:

I do love the Turkey/EU discussion.

EU - "Turkey are joining the EU"
Turkey - "We are joining the EU"
UK - "We support Turkey joining the EU"

Vote Leave - "Turkey are joining the EU"

Remain - "XENOPHOBIC LIES!"

It's the LIES bit that puzzles me. A wholehearted remainer would surely welcome the accession of millions of very poor Muslims to The Project as making it even more glorious than it is now. Unless they have something against Muslims...

We've got something against twats.

As has been rehearsed many times on here, Turkey is joining the EU in the same way as Macclesfield Town is winning the Champions League.

That might be true, but the campaign was free to take the statement from the EU/Turkey/UK government at face value and then not having anyone refute that was absolutely stupid. Dave could have easily said "we'll give the people a say on whether Turkey can join" and kicked the issue into the long grass. That he didn't just made them look like they were trying to hide something.

Maybe, maybe not - no one is saying Remain played their A game. But the point that @AlastairMeeks makes time after time is valid. Leave used a nasty, xenophobic campaign to shore up support, they opened Pandora's Box (sans espoir), and validated a view of foreigners that will take years to nullify if ever.

I don't think it's as bad as all that. If you look across the whole of Europe the two top concerns are immigration and terrorism (part of the same issue IMO).

The campaign, and poster, legitimised dislike of foreigners, of The Other.

Same as Jezza and the anti-semitism row. Is he anti-semitic? Probably not (actually probably - because the difference to him between the oppressive Imperialist State of Israel and the oppressive Imperialist Jews is small, but I digress). But as we have seen sadly, his attitude legitimised and emboldened those within the Labour Party who were anti-semitic.

DavidL

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: some more specials on Ladbrokes, but none appeal (one, 401, has both Mercedes to DNF but no safety car).

Mr. L, Ladbrokes has 4 for 60-70%, 17 for over 70%.

Favourite is 1.66 for 50-60%. Given that, 5.5 for No looks somewhat tempting. Thoughts?

Thanks. May find an opportunity to wander past a shop before they are all closed down. I think Yes are simply trying to alarm their supporters into turning out. 4 is quite tempting.

williamglenn

FPT

Tykejohnno said:

Scott_P said:

Tykejohnno said:

On no more immigration ?

Sorry scott,where does it say no more immigration ? From the poster he might point out we need controlled immigration.

The poster says "the EU has failed us all". How exactly does that relate to the image?

The line at the bottom says we must "take back control of our borders". Logically this only makes sense if "our borders" is taken to mean the borders of the EU, in which case leaving it is a funny way to take back control.

MikeSmithson

HYUFD said:

2nd place in Lewisham East

Tories 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017

LDs 2010

1st place in Lewisham East

Tories 1987

'LDs can't win here, Only the Tories can beat Labour in Lewisham East!'

Then why are the Tories 100/1 and the LDs 20/1?

DecrepitJohnL

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

Ladbrokes and Corals offer 9/2 against a no vote, so put your betting boots on and you can join DavidL for a fish supper with mysterious brown sauce (fpt). (Supper is Scottish for "and chips" so fish supper is fish and chips.)

tlg86

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

I don't know whether an upset is likely, but the arguments have been a bit confusing. The Repeal side have, understandably, drawn attention towards cases where the child won't survive. But is it not the case that this is ultimately about giving women the choice irrespective of circumstances?

HHemmelig

logical_song said:

HYUFD said:

2nd place in Lewisham East

Tories 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017

LDs 2010

1st place in Lewisham East

Tories 1987

'LDs can't win here, Only the Tories can beat Labour in Lewisham East!'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
Ladbrokes make the LibDems 5 times more likely to win than the Tories, but Labour 100 times more likely still.
However it's a by-election, so could be used to send a message - has been known.

There is a rump Tory vote of circa 20%, largely concentrated in the south of the seat on the Bromley border. It isn't the kind of Tory vote that will be very easy to persuade to vote Lib Dem. Note also that there is a long history of BNP and NF candidacies in the area, carrying on until quite recently in some of the council wards, and UKIP didn't perform that badly here compared with most of inner London.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. L, not long to find out.

Mr. Scrapheap, heretics are more hated than heathens. Better the Sultan's turban than the cardinal's hat, as Byzantines used to say.

TheScreamingEagles

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

Where Great Britain leads, Ireland lags behind:

Legalisation of same-sex relations:
E & W. 1967, Scot. 1980, NI 1982, Ireland 1993

Legalisation of divorce:
UK 1937, Ireland 1997

Legalisation of abortion:
E & W, Sct. 1967, NI illegal, Ireland illegal

Blame the colonials that occupied Ireland for so long.

They left the place a mess.

Always turns into a bloody mess when we partition countries.

Perhaps that’s where we went wrong with America.

Lord North should have kept six states. New England perhaps ?

HHemmelig

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

2nd place in Lewisham East

Tories 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017

LDs 2010

1st place in Lewisham East

Tories 1987

'LDs can't win here, Only the Tories can beat Labour in Lewisham East!'

Then why are the Tories 100/1 and the LDs 20/1?

Probably because there's no chance whatsoever of the Tories winning, and perhaps the merest smidgen of a chance for the Lib Dems if they could pull off some kind of Brent East. But it just isn't going to happen, at least that is my judgement as someone who lived in this neck of the woods for more than a decade.

Tissue_Price

@MikeSmithson

(a) Only the first tweet is about Thornberry, isn't it? - I've seen this elision elsewhere so I assume you are inadvertently repeating it
(b) I don't see that the tweets, in context, are "sexist" - they may be unwisely worded but they're both actually about the ideology of ISIS and the fatuity of negotiating with them.

See Ian McKenzie's statement here.

rpjs

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

Where Great Britain leads, Ireland lags behind:

Legalisation of same-sex relations:
E & W. 1967, Scot. 1980, NI 1982, Ireland 1993

Legalisation of divorce:
UK 1937, Ireland 1997

Legalisation of abortion:
E & W, Sct. 1967, NI illegal, Ireland illegal

Blame the colonials that occupied Ireland for so long.

They left the place a mess.

Always turns into a bloody mess when we partition countries.

Perhaps that’s where we went wrong with America.

Lord North should have kept six states. New England perhaps ?

I don't know about remaining under the Crown, but New England has always been a bit out on its own. Rhode Island was the first colony to declare independence, but the last to join the Union and then only under threat of a trade blockade from the other states. The New England states toyed with secession during the War of 1812, which affected their trade badly.

DavidL

tlg86 said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

I don't know whether an upset is likely, but the arguments have been a bit confusing. The Repeal side have, understandably, drawn attention towards cases where the child won't survive. But is it not the case that this is ultimately about giving women the choice irrespective of circumstances?

Quite a limited choice compared to what is available here, basically in the first 12 weeks but yes. Yet another referendum with highly emotive and misleading arguments being made on both sides.

Elliot

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

I think this issue is one where the more you delve into it, the more nuance you find in people's views. I think there are very few people who believe the contraceptive pill ending an embryo is murder (outside of highly religious evangelicals, Catholics and Muslims) and very few who think an eight month pregnancy is no more than the mother's body. Of course, the activist base on both sides doesn't want to deal with the complexity involved.

I do wonder if going hard on the Downs syndrome issue is wise for the anti-abortion side. Where abortion is available, something like 95% of couples choose to terminate in that case.

Philip_Thompson

Does anyone have a news article link to the reduction in borrowing figures? I can't find anything on the BBC or even the FT. Thanks in advance.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, context is key.

RobD

Philip_Thompson said:

Does anyone have a news article link to the reduction in borrowing figures? I can't find anything on the BBC or even the FT. Thanks in advance.

https://www.ft.com/content/dde5cd74-5d99-11e8-9334-2218e7146b04

Tykejohnno

williamglenn said:

FPT

Tykejohnno said:

Scott_P said:

Tykejohnno said:

On no more immigration ?

Sorry scott,where does it say no more immigration ? From the poster he might point out we need controlled immigration.

The poster says "the EU has failed us all". How exactly does that relate to the image?

The line at the bottom says we must "take back control of our borders". Logically this only makes sense if "our borders" is taken to mean the borders of the EU, in which case leaving it is a funny way to take back control.

I was posting about some remainers on here who think leavers are against all immigration when we are not,in my case it's controlled sensible immigration policies.

I'm sure a majority would agree with on here.

RobD

williamglenn said:

FPT

Tykejohnno said:

Scott_P said:

Tykejohnno said:

On no more immigration ?

Sorry scott,where does it say no more immigration ? From the poster he might point out we need controlled immigration.

The poster says "the EU has failed us all". How exactly does that relate to the image?

The line at the bottom says we must "take back control of our borders". Logically this only makes sense if "our borders" is taken to mean the borders of the EU, in which case leaving it is a funny way to take back control.

No, it doesn't only make sense if it means the borders of the EU.

DavidL

Elliot said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

I think this issue is one where the more you delve into it, the more nuance you find in people's views. I think there are very few people who believe the contraceptive pill ending an embryo is murder (outside of highly religious evangelicals, Catholics and Muslims) and very few who think an eight month pregnancy is no more than the mother's body. Of course, the activist base on both sides doesn't want to deal with the complexity involved.

I do wonder if going hard on the Downs syndrome issue is wise for the anti-abortion side. Where abortion is available, something like 95% of couples choose to terminate in that case.

I think it is one of the most difficult moral questions. I am personally very opposed to abortion. When my wife and I were told there was a risk of downs with one of our children we didn’t even have the test done. But I am very loathe to make the choice for others, particularly other women. I think ultimately women should have the right to choose, at least to the point the fetus is viable.

williamglenn

Tykejohnno said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

Tykejohnno said:

Scott_P said:

Tykejohnno said:

On no more immigration ?

Sorry scott,where does it say no more immigration ? From the poster he might point out we need controlled immigration.

The poster says "the EU has failed us all". How exactly does that relate to the image?

The line at the bottom says we must "take back control of our borders". Logically this only makes sense if "our borders" is taken to mean the borders of the EU, in which case leaving it is a funny way to take back control.

I was posting about some remainers on here who think leavers are against all immigration when we are not,in my case it's controlled sensible immigration policies.

I'm sure a majority would agree with on here.

Although not Richard Tyndall who apparently voted Leave to promote the idea of the global free movement of people.

FrancisUrquhart

Philip_Thompson said:

Does anyone have a news article link to the reduction in borrowing figures? I can't find anything on the BBC or even the FT. Thanks in advance.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-deficit-government-borrowing-april-latest-autumn-budget-philip-hammond-a8362906.html

http://www.cityam.com/286193/uk-deficit-drops-gbp57bn-last-year-lowest-level-since-2007

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, it's crazy opinions like that which meant you never became a judge in Scotland.

Barnesian

RoyalBlue said:

FPT:

You don’t have to be a Catholic, or even religious, to be against abortion.

I think Repeal are going to lose. The BBC and Guardian will have a meltdown.

My money is on not repeal at 8s. It's a bad sign and poor tactics when a campaign criticises its rival for expenses or some other process issue. It should concentrate on the positive case and appeal to emotion. Difficult with abortion.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, context is key.

"Universal law is for lackeys. Context is for kings!"
- Captain Gabriel Lorca, Star Trek: Discovery

Scott_P

Tykejohnno said:

I'm sure a majority would agree with on here.

A majority agreed we were at "breaking point"

How far beyond breaking are you advocating?

Elliot

DavidL said:

Elliot said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

I think this issue is one where the more you delve into it, the more nuance you find in people's views. I think there are very few people who believe the contraceptive pill ending an embryo is murder (outside of highly religious evangelicals, Catholics and Muslims) and very few who think an eight month pregnancy is no more than the mother's body. Of course, the activist base on both sides doesn't want to deal with the complexity involved.

I do wonder if going hard on the Downs syndrome issue is wise for the anti-abortion side. Where abortion is available, something like 95% of couples choose to terminate in that case.

I think it is one of the most difficult moral questions. I am personally very opposed to abortion. When my wife and I were told there was a risk of downs with one of our children we didn’t even have the test done. But I am very loathe to make the choice for others, particularly other women. I think ultimately women should have the right to choose, at least to the point the fetus is viable.

It's just so difficult. Giving the choice to the woman, at least below a certain age, is probably the least worst option but even that makes me uncomfortable. I would feel awful as the father if I felt my child was alive at 5 months and he or she was terminated over my objection.

OblitusSumMe

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

Where Great Britain leads, Ireland lags behind:

Legalisation of same-sex relations:
E & W. 1967, Scot. 1980, NI 1982, Ireland 1993

Legalisation of divorce:
UK 1937, Ireland 1997

Legalisation of abortion:
E & W, Sct. 1967, NI illegal, Ireland illegal

Blame the colonials that occupied Ireland for so long.

They left the place a mess.

Always turns into a bloody mess when we partition countries.

Perhaps that’s where we went wrong with America.

Lord North should have kept six states. New England perhaps ?

On the contrary, Trump aside, British generosity when discussing peace with the US has turned out remarkably to our benefit in the long-term. Something we should have learnt from in subsequent international dealings.

DavidL

Philip_Thompson said:

Does anyone have a news article link to the reduction in borrowing figures? I can't find anything on the BBC or even the FT. Thanks in advance.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44207677

It’s just a brilliant chance to spend more, apparently.

RobD

Barnesian said:

RoyalBlue said:

FPT:

You don’t have to be a Catholic, or even religious, to be against abortion.

I think Repeal are going to lose. The BBC and Guardian will have a meltdown.

My money is on not repeal at 8s. It's a bad sign and poor tactics when a campaign criticises its rival for expenses or some other process issue. It should concentrate on the positive case and appeal to emotion. Difficult with abortion.

Not sure there is much to be positive about when talking about killing babies.

Barnesian

DavidL said:

Does anyone know what odds you can get on 60% + yes in the Irish referendum?

On Betfair 11/4 on 60-70%. 9/1 on 70%+.

Tykejohnno

williamglenn said:

Tykejohnno said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

Tykejohnno said:

Scott_P said:

Tykejohnno said:

On no more immigration ?

Sorry scott,where does it say no more immigration ? From the poster he might point out we need controlled immigration.

The poster says "the EU has failed us all". How exactly does that relate to the image?

The line at the bottom says we must "take back control of our borders". Logically this only makes sense if "our borders" is taken to mean the borders of the EU, in which case leaving it is a funny way to take back control.

I was posting about some remainers on here who think leavers are against all immigration when we are not,in my case it's controlled sensible immigration policies.

I'm sure a majority would agree with on here.

Although not Richard Tyndall who apparently voted Leave to promote the idea of the global free movement of people.

Did he really post that ?

TheScreamingEagles

There’s something fundamentally wrong with this country with Primark set to be country’s top clothing retailer.

Why isn’t it Selfridges, where a man of the people like me shops.

Gardenwalker

TheScreamingEagles said:

There’s something fundamentally wrong with this country with Primark set to be country’s top clothing retailer.

Why isn’t it Selfridges, where a man of the people like me shop.

It’s on brand with Brexit.
Primark and Poundshop Britain.

Floater

Sean_F said:

I presume it was intended to be a joke, but unwise for someone in his position.

Talking of jokes - this has to be one right?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/22/labour-allows-male-activist-stand-womens-officer-identifies/

Elliot

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There’s something fundamentally wrong with this country with Primark set to be country’s top clothing retailer.

Why isn’t it Selfridges, where a man of the people like me shop.

It’s on brand with Brexit.
Primark and Poundshop Britain.

How dare the plebs be fiscally prudent. Those tasteless workers should spend more on high end consumerism.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, it's crazy opinions like that which meant you never became a judge in Scotland.

Scotland has a pisspoor legal system invented by thickos.

Not proven must surely be incompatible with the ECHR.

JosiasJessop

Off-topic:

"$100m prize fund offered for Fortnite game play"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-44209061

Blooming 'eck, I wish I was good at playing games (or even had the time to play them.)

Gardenwalker

Elliot said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There’s something fundamentally wrong with this country with Primark set to be country’s top clothing retailer.

Why isn’t it Selfridges, where a man of the people like me shop.

It’s on brand with Brexit.
Primark and Poundshop Britain.

How dare the plebs be fiscally prudent. Those tasteless workers should spend more on high end consumerism.

Indeed.
East Germany here we come!

rkrkrk

Tissue_Price said:

@MikeSmithson

(a) Only the first tweet is about Thornberry, isn't it? - I've seen this elision elsewhere so I assume you are inadvertently repeating it
(b) I don't see that the tweets, in context, are "sexist" - they may be unwisely worded but they're both actually about the ideology of ISIS and the fatuity of negotiating with them.

See Ian McKenzie's statement here.

I think it's fairly obvious that Ian McKenzie wasn't advocating beheading or sex slavery.

But I don't find his suggestion that this wasn't a joke particularly convincing - he admits the woman he is responding to is parodying a negotiation (i.e. exaggerating for comic effect) and he is replying in the same vein.

I think an apology and maybe someone explaining to him that twitter is not his friend would be a good idea.

Foxy

DavidL said:

Elliot said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

I think this issue is one where the more you delve into it, the more nuance you find in people's views. I think there are very few people who believe the contraceptive pill ending an embryo is murder (outside of highly religious evangelicals, Catholics and Muslims) and very few who think an eight month pregnancy is no more than the mother's body. Of course, the activist base on both sides doesn't want to deal with the complexity involved.

I do wonder if going hard on the Downs syndrome issue is wise for the anti-abortion side. Where abortion is available, something like 95% of couples choose to terminate in that case.

I think it is one of the most difficult moral questions. I am personally very opposed to abortion. When my wife and I were told there was a risk of downs with one of our children we didn’t even have the test done. But I am very loathe to make the choice for others, particularly other women. I think ultimately women should have the right to choose, at least to the point the fetus is viable.

I too am quite anti abortion, in similar circumstances I too would not have had Downs screening. On the other hand, I would not inflict my choice on others, so would not want tighter abortion rules.

It is entirely possible to be anti-abortion in ones own life but pro choice on a societal level.

Sally Phillips made this remarkeable documentary on the BBC a little while back:

https://youtu.be/x16wGajCHIw

TheScreamingEagles

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There’s something fundamentally wrong with this country with Primark set to be country’s top clothing retailer.

Why isn’t it Selfridges, where a man of the people like me shop.

It’s on brand with Brexit.
Primark and Poundshop Britain.

As someone who is dating a self styled Primani Princess I find that place curious.

Tykejohnno

Scott_P said:

Tykejohnno said:

I'm sure a majority would agree with on here.

A majority agreed we were at "breaking point"

How far beyond breaking are you advocating?

Many agreed with our government taking back controll of our borders scott so the government can say the numbers of migrants we need,better than no control of numbers from one part of the world.

Elliot

Gardenwalker said:

Elliot said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There’s something fundamentally wrong with this country with Primark set to be country’s top clothing retailer.

Why isn’t it Selfridges, where a man of the people like me shop.

It’s on brand with Brexit.
Primark and Poundshop Britain.

How dare the plebs be fiscally prudent. Those tasteless workers should spend more on high end consumerism.

Indeed.
East Germany here we come!

East Germany failed because of a lack of market pricing. West Germany succeeded because they combined market capitalism with government intervention and a culture of personal prudence.

Sean_F

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

There's a strong tendency in Irish referenda for (a) people who respond don't know/won't say at the end of a campaign to break heavily for the status quo (b) people to be reluctant to give the politically incorrect answer to pollsters (which also ties in with (a).

The most recent polls have 45-56% favouring Yes, 24-37% favouring No, and 16-24% don't know. Hence, I think it will be tight.

Alanbrooke

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

Where Great Britain leads, Ireland lags behind:

Legalisation of same-sex relations:
E & W. 1967, Scot. 1980, NI 1982, Ireland 1993

Legalisation of divorce:
UK 1937, Ireland 1997

Legalisation of abortion:
E & W, Sct. 1967, NI illegal, Ireland illegal

First female archbishop

N Ireland 2013 England still waiting

First ethnic PM , First gay PM

Ireland 2017

First UK civil partnership

N Ireland 2005


you're just so bigoted Blue

DavidL

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Elliot said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

I think this issue is one where the more you delve into it, the more nuance you find in people's views. I think there are very few people who believe the contraceptive pill ending an embryo is murder (outside of highly religious evangelicals, Catholics and Muslims) and very few who think an eight month pregnancy is no more than the mother's body. Of course, the activist base on both sides doesn't want to deal with the complexity involved.

I do wonder if going hard on the Downs syndrome issue is wise for the anti-abortion side. Where abortion is available, something like 95% of couples choose to terminate in that case.

I think it is one of the most difficult moral questions. I am personally very opposed to abortion. When my wife and I were told there was a risk of downs with one of our children we didn’t even have the test done. But I am very loathe to make the choice for others, particularly other women. I think ultimately women should have the right to choose, at least to the point the fetus is viable.

I too am quite anti abortion, in similar circumstances I too would not have had Downs screening. On the other hand, I would not inflict my choice on others, so would not want tighter abortion rules.

It is entirely possible to be anti-abortion in ones own life but pro choice on a societal level.

Sally Phillips made this remarkeable documentary on the BBC a little while back:

https://youtu.be/x16wGajCHIw

That is pretty much where I am. And yet...the number of abortions in the U.K. each year appals me. I respect the rights of others to make different choices but I wish they didn’t.

RoyalBlue

It’s a very difficult issue. I personally struggle with the idea that it is wrong to execute an adult who has consciously committed and been found guilty of a grievous crime, but it is acceptable to destroy something that will develop into a unique human life which at the point of termination is by definition innocent.

I recognise the social utility of legalised abortion, but I’m not sure I could bring myself to vote for it in a referendum.

JonnyJimmy

"Elon Musk admits Tesla braking flaw"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-44210793

I like that headline read aloud. His research is groundbreaking

OblitusSumMe

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

There's a strong tendency in Irish referenda for (a) people who respond don't know/won't say at the end of a campaign to break heavily for the status quo (b) people to be reluctant to give the politically incorrect answer to pollsters (which also ties in with (a).

The most recent polls have 45-56% favouring Yes, 24-37% favouring No, and 16-24% don't know. Hence, I think it will be tight.

The referendum campaign has made my Irish wife recalibrate her feelings about living in Britain. While there is a lot about the country that she finds exasperating or offensive, she doesn't feel that the law is actively trying to kill her as it does to too many unfortunate women in Ireland. It rather puts Brexit into perspective.

Sean_F

OblitusSumMe said:

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

There's a strong tendency in Irish referenda for (a) people who respond don't know/won't say at the end of a campaign to break heavily for the status quo (b) people to be reluctant to give the politically incorrect answer to pollsters (which also ties in with (a).

The most recent polls have 45-56% favouring Yes, 24-37% favouring No, and 16-24% don't know. Hence, I think it will be tight.

The referendum campaign has made my Irish wife recalibrate her feelings about living in Britain. While there is a lot about the country that she finds exasperating or offensive, she doesn't feel that the law is actively trying to kill her as it does to too many unfortunate women in Ireland. It rather puts Brexit into perspective.

FWIW, I think that the 8th Amendment is too stringent, and its replacement is too liberal.

DavidL

Sean_F said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

There's a strong tendency in Irish referenda for (a) people who respond don't know/won't say at the end of a campaign to break heavily for the status quo (b) people to be reluctant to give the politically incorrect answer to pollsters (which also ties in with (a).

The most recent polls have 45-56% favouring Yes, 24-37% favouring No, and 16-24% don't know. Hence, I think it will be tight.

The referendum campaign has made my Irish wife recalibrate her feelings about living in Britain. While there is a lot about the country that she finds exasperating or offensive, she doesn't feel that the law is actively trying to kill her as it does to too many unfortunate women in Ireland. It rather puts Brexit into perspective.

FWIW, I think that the 8th Amendment is too stringent, and its replacement is too liberal.

Would you not agree that it is less “liberal” than we have here, at least in practise?

Foxy

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Elliot said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

I think this issue is one where the more you delve into it, the more nuance you find in people's views. I think there are very few people who believe the contraceptive pill ending an embryo is murder (outside of highly religious evangelicals, Catholics and Muslims) and very few who think an eight month pregnancy is no more than the mother's body. Of course, the activist base on both sides doesn't want to deal with the complexity involved.

I do wonder if going hard on the Downs syndrome issue is wise for the anti-abortion side. Where abortion is available, something like 95% of couples choose to terminate in that case.

I think it is one of the most difficult moral questions. I am personally very opposed to abortion. When my wife and I were told there was a risk of downs with one of our children we didn’t even have the test done. But I am very loathe to make the choice for others, particularly other women. I think ultimately women should have the right to choose, at least to the point the fetus is viable.

I too am quite anti abortion, in similar circumstances I too would not have had Downs screening. On the other hand, I would not inflict my choice on others, so would not want tighter abortion rules.

It is entirely possible to be anti-abortion in ones own life but pro choice on a societal level.

Sally Phillips made this remarkeable documentary on the BBC a little while back:

https://youtu.be/x16wGajCHIw

That is pretty much where I am. And yet...the number of abortions in the U.K. each year appals me. I respect the rights of others to make different choices but I wish they didn’t.

There are many life choices that I see people make, that I wish they did not. I am sure that the legal profession is the same.

Ideally, I would like to see abortion disappear by obsalescence. I mean that all children being conceived in loving and continuing relationships.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, I read that somewhere or other. Fortnite appears to be beating PUBG, no?

And a timely reminder that videogames are big enough to buy Hollywood.

Sean_F

DavidL said:

Sean_F said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

There's a strong tendency in Irish referenda for (a) people who respond don't know/won't say at the end of a campaign to break heavily for the status quo (b) people to be reluctant to give the politically incorrect answer to pollsters (which also ties in with (a).

The most recent polls have 45-56% favouring Yes, 24-37% favouring No, and 16-24% don't know. Hence, I think it will be tight.

The referendum campaign has made my Irish wife recalibrate her feelings about living in Britain. While there is a lot about the country that she finds exasperating or offensive, she doesn't feel that the law is actively trying to kill her as it does to too many unfortunate women in Ireland. It rather puts Brexit into perspective.

FWIW, I think that the 8th Amendment is too stringent, and its replacement is too liberal.

Would you not agree that it is less “liberal” than we have here, at least in practise?

I think that's right, although I would expect the Irish law to become more liberal over time.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, it's crazy opinions like that which meant you never became a judge in Scotland.

Scotland has a pisspoor legal system invented by thickos.

Not proven must surely be incompatible with the ECHR.

Been found not to be. Best example is a case where my dad was on the jury. A man was accused of molesting 2 young girls. To obtain corroboration he has to be guilty of both. One of the girls was patently lying. One patently was not. The jury found the accused not guilty and not proven.

DavidL

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Elliot said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

I think this issue is one where the more you delve into it, the more nuance you find in people's views. I think there are very few people who believe the contraceptive pill ending an embryo is murder (outside of highly religious evangelicals, Catholics and Muslims) and very few who think an eight month pregnancy is no more than the mother's body. Of course, the activist base on both sides doesn't want to deal with the complexity involved.

I do wonder if going hard on the Downs syndrome issue is wise for the anti-abortion side. Where abortion is available, something like 95% of couples choose to terminate in that case.

I think it is one of the most difficult moral questions. I am personally very opposed to abortion. When my wife and I were told there was a risk of downs with one of our children we didn’t even have the test done. But I am very loathe to make the choice for others, particularly other women. I think ultimately women should have the right to choose, at least to the point the fetus is viable.

I too am quite anti abortion, in similar circumstances I too would not have had Downs screening. On the other hand, I would not inflict my choice on others, so would not want tighter abortion rules.

It is entirely possible to be anti-abortion in ones own life but pro choice on a societal level.

Sally Phillips made this remarkeable documentary on the BBC a little while back:

https://youtu.be/x16wGajCHIw

That is pretty much where I am. And yet...the number of abortions in the U.K. each year appals me. I respect the rights of others to make different choices but I wish they didn’t.

There are many life choices that I see people make, that I wish they did not. I am sure that the legal profession is the same.

Ideally, I would like to see abortion disappear by obsalescence. I mean that all children being conceived in loving and continuing relationships.

I think that we are in exact agreement on this.

Theuniondivvie

You Anglos are generous chaps when it comes to sharing your 'principals' (speeling not being one of them obvs).

https://twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/998574475594649600

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, it's crazy opinions like that which meant you never became a judge in Scotland.

Scotland has a pisspoor legal system invented by thickos.

Not proven must surely be incompatible with the ECHR.

Been found not to be. Best example is a case where my dad was on the jury. A man was accused of molesting 2 young girls. To obtain corroboration he has to be guilty of both. One of the girls was patently lying. One patently was not. The jury found the accused not guilty and not proven.

Crikey and thanks.

DecrepitJohnL

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Does anyone have a news article link to the reduction in borrowing figures? I can't find anything on the BBC or even the FT. Thanks in advance.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44207677

It’s just a brilliant chance to spend more, apparently.

Did you not realise Osborne's balanced budget target existed only to embarrass Labour; not to be taken literally?

OblitusSumMe

Sean_F said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

There's a strong tendency in Irish referenda for (a) people who respond don't know/won't say at the end of a campaign to break heavily for the status quo (b) people to be reluctant to give the politically incorrect answer to pollsters (which also ties in with (a).

The most recent polls have 45-56% favouring Yes, 24-37% favouring No, and 16-24% don't know. Hence, I think it will be tight.

The referendum campaign has made my Irish wife recalibrate her feelings about living in Britain. While there is a lot about the country that she finds exasperating or offensive, she doesn't feel that the law is actively trying to kill her as it does to too many unfortunate women in Ireland. It rather puts Brexit into perspective.

FWIW, I think that the 8th Amendment is too stringent, and its replacement is too liberal.

Repealing the 8th amendment shouldn't be tied to a specific choice of law to follow. They should be separate choices.

I suspect that there will be many of your opinion and if that results in Repeal failing it will make the whole exercise a massive missed opportunity because of the government's position.

tlg86

Sean_F said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

There's a strong tendency in Irish referenda for (a) people who respond don't know/won't say at the end of a campaign to break heavily for the status quo (b) people to be reluctant to give the politically incorrect answer to pollsters (which also ties in with (a).

The most recent polls have 45-56% favouring Yes, 24-37% favouring No, and 16-24% don't know. Hence, I think it will be tight.

The referendum campaign has made my Irish wife recalibrate her feelings about living in Britain. While there is a lot about the country that she finds exasperating or offensive, she doesn't feel that the law is actively trying to kill her as it does to too many unfortunate women in Ireland. It rather puts Brexit into perspective.

FWIW, I think that the 8th Amendment is too stringent, and its replacement is too liberal.

+1

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

Where Great Britain leads, Ireland lags behind:

Legalisation of same-sex relations:
E & W. 1967, Scot. 1980, NI 1982, Ireland 1993

Legalisation of divorce:
UK 1937, Ireland 1997

Legalisation of abortion:
E & W, Sct. 1967, NI illegal, Ireland illegal

Blame the colonials that occupied Ireland for so long.

Why? Ireland has been independent since 1922, years before any of the dates I just listed above!

Fenster

RoyalBlue said:

It’s a very difficult issue. I personally struggle with the idea that it is wrong to execute an adult who has consciously committed and been found guilty of a grievous crime, but it is acceptable to destroy something that will develop into a unique human life which at the point of termination is by definition innocent.

I recognise the social utility of legalised abortion, but I’m not sure I could bring myself to vote for it in a referendum.

For me abortion should be purely down to a woman's choice. But then I'm an uber liberal.

Weirdly though, my wife and me - without ever discussing it (we've never had a serious discussion in our lives) were talking with friends about abortion and, unprompted, both of us said we'd have the baby if she miraculously got pregnant (I'm 40 btw - a bit old) because none of us could countenance aborting a baby after having previous babies. We were both adamant on it despite knowing the inevitable upheaval, pressures etc it would bring, having to start the baby-thing all over again.

I doubt we would've baulked at the idea of an abortion pre-having babies.

Having children has made me MUCH less selfish, which is remarkable really because I was a knobhead teenager/twentysomething. Didn't care about much bar myself.

MaxPB

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Does anyone have a news article link to the reduction in borrowing figures? I can't find anything on the BBC or even the FT. Thanks in advance.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44207677

It’s just a brilliant chance to spend more, apparently.

Ugh, the BBC shouldn't have opinion writers. Just report the facts.

Sunil_Prasannan

Elliot said:

Gardenwalker said:

Elliot said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There’s something fundamentally wrong with this country with Primark set to be country’s top clothing retailer.

Why isn’t it Selfridges, where a man of the people like me shop.

It’s on brand with Brexit.
Primark and Poundshop Britain.

How dare the plebs be fiscally prudent. Those tasteless workers should spend more on high end consumerism.

Indeed.
East Germany here we come!

East Germany failed because of a lack of market pricing. West Germany succeeded because they combined market capitalism with government intervention and a culture of personal prudence.

Anthony Beevor reckons East Germany failed because the Soviets were a little too eager stripping out factories and research laboratories in their zone of occupied Germany.

Stark_Dawning

Theuniondivvie said:

You Anglos are generous chaps when it comes to sharing your 'principals' (speeling not being one of them obvs).

https://twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/998574475594649600

Perhaps we've sent a lot of college heads over the border.

Sunil_Prasannan

Alanbrooke said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

Where Great Britain leads, Ireland lags behind:

Legalisation of same-sex relations:
E & W. 1967, Scot. 1980, NI 1982, Ireland 1993

Legalisation of divorce:
UK 1937, Ireland 1997

Legalisation of abortion:
E & W, Sct. 1967, NI illegal, Ireland illegal

First female archbishop

N Ireland 2013 England still waiting

First ethnic PM , First gay PM

Ireland 2017

First UK civil partnership

N Ireland 2005


you're just so bigoted Blue

I haven't gone away, you know!!

This week's Irish referendum is on abortion. Abortion has been legal in Blighty for over 50 years!

rural_voter

Fenster said:

RoyalBlue said:

It’s a very difficult issue. I personally struggle with the idea that it is wrong to execute an adult who has consciously committed and been found guilty of a grievous crime, but it is acceptable to destroy something that will develop into a unique human life which at the point of termination is by definition innocent.

I recognise the social utility of legalised abortion, but I’m not sure I could bring myself to vote for it in a referendum.

For me abortion should be purely down to a woman's choice. But then I'm an uber liberal.

Weirdly though, my wife and me - without ever discussing it (we've never had a serious discussion in our lives) were talking with friends about abortion and, unprompted, both of us said we'd have the baby if she miraculously got pregnant (I'm 40 btw - a bit old) because none of us could countenance aborting a baby after having previous babies. We were both adamant on it despite knowing the inevitable upheaval, pressures etc it would bring, having to start the baby-thing all over again.

I doubt we would've baulked at the idea of an abortion pre-having babies.

Having children has made me MUCH less selfish, which is remarkable really because I was a knobhead teenager/twentysomething. Didn't care about much bar myself.

Arguably most of the European laws on the matter are too restrictive. The BBC website listed most of them and the UK seemed to be about halfway towards the illiberal end of the spectrum. Its 1967 legislation is now quite old and hasn't been updated much.

Canada, and not anywhere in Europe, seems to have the world's most liberal legislation on abortion. Whether due to this, or due to better contraception and better sex education, the number of abortions has tended to decline over time, i.e. that is surely what most people, especially women would like to see ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Canada

Nigelb

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Elliot said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

I do wonder if going hard on the Downs syndrome issue is wise for the anti-abortion side. Where abortion is available, something like 95% of couples choose to terminate in that case.

I think it is one of the most difficult moral questions. I am personally very opposed to abortion. When my wife and I were told there was a risk of downs with one of our children we didn’t even have the test done. But I am very loathe to make the choice for others, particularly other women. I think ultimately women should have the right to choose, at least to the point the fetus is viable.

I too am quite anti abortion, in similar circumstances I too would not have had Downs screening. On the other hand, I would not inflict my choice on others, so would not want tighter abortion rules.

It is entirely possible to be anti-abortion in ones own life but pro choice on a societal level.

Sally Phillips made this remarkeable documentary on the BBC a little while back:

https://youtu.be/x16wGajCHIw

That is pretty much where I am. And yet...the number of abortions in the U.K. each year appals me. I respect the rights of others to make different choices but I wish they didn’t.

There are many life choices that I see people make, that I wish they did not. I am sure that the legal profession is the same.

Ideally, I would like to see abortion disappear by obsalescence. I mean that all children being conceived in loving and continuing relationships.

I think that we are in exact agreement on this.

Agreement on the desirability of utopias is not the best basis for policy making.
If every child were conceived in a loving and continuing relationship, a great deal of legislation would be entirely unnecessary...

TGOHF

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

Where Great Britain leads, Ireland lags behind:

Legalisation of same-sex relations:
E & W. 1967, Scot. 1980, NI 1982, Ireland 1993

Legalisation of divorce:
UK 1937, Ireland 1997

Legalisation of abortion:
E & W, Sct. 1967, NI illegal, Ireland illegal

Blame the colonials that occupied Ireland for so long.

The Irish still do - just a mere 100 years later. If only the chips on their shoulders would catch the potato blight.

DavidL

DecrepitJohnL said:

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Does anyone have a news article link to the reduction in borrowing figures? I can't find anything on the BBC or even the FT. Thanks in advance.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44207677

It’s just a brilliant chance to spend more, apparently.

Did you not realise Osborne's balanced budget target existed only to embarrass Labour; not to be taken literally?

Brown and Darling’s targets embarrassed the whole country. So far the deficit has been reduced by £115bn. What makes you think that it will not be eliminated? An opinion piece on the BBC?

Fenster

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Elliot said:

Gardenwalker said:

Elliot said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There’s something fundamentally wrong with this country with Primark set to be country’s top clothing retailer.

Why isn’t it Selfridges, where a man of the people like me shop.

It’s on brand with Brexit.
Primark and Poundshop Britain.

How dare the plebs be fiscally prudent. Those tasteless workers should spend more on high end consumerism.

Indeed.
East Germany here we come!

East Germany failed because of a lack of market pricing. West Germany succeeded because they combined market capitalism with government intervention and a culture of personal prudence.

Anthony Beevor reckons East Germany failed because the Soviets were a little too eager stripping out factories and research laboratories in their zone of occupied Germany.

Sorry for the vulgarity of the point, but the desire of surviving East German blokes to succeed for their Soviet masters after the communists had quiet literally raped all of their women must've been fairly muted.

RoyalBlue

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44207677

Classic BBC. Everyone knows matching outgoings with receipts is supported only by the worst kind of right-wing ogres.

OldKingCole

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RoyalBlue said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. Blue, could you explain your reasoning for that referendum prediction? Not disputing it, just curious as I might bet that way.

If the Repeal side are complaining about how their opponents are campaigning, they know they’re in trouble.

In the USA, opinion on whether Roe v Wade was right has been incredibly stable, unlike the polling on interracial marriage, gay marriage, cannabis legalisation etc. It is a categorically different issue, because to many people, more than one life is involved, and that life has no say in the matter.

Where Great Britain leads, Ireland lags behind:

Legalisation of same-sex relations:
E & W. 1967, Scot. 1980, NI 1982, Ireland 1993

Legalisation of divorce:
UK 1937, Ireland 1997

Legalisation of abortion:
E & W, Sct. 1967, NI illegal, Ireland illegal

Blame the colonials that occupied Ireland for so long.

The Irish still do - just a mere 100 years later. If only the chips on their shoulders would catch the potato blight.

400+ years of being treated, at best, as second class citizens and at worst as slightly better than cattle tends to leave wounds!

Not sure whether the English still resent the Normans, but one could argue that the Referendum seems to point that way.

Sunil_Prasannan

O/T A little bit miffed that no-one's spotted the subtle change to my avatar since a week ago

Sunil_Prasannan

Fenster said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Elliot said:

Gardenwalker said:

Elliot said:

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There’s something fundamentally wrong with this country with Primark set to be country’s top clothing retailer.

Why isn’t it Selfridges, where a man of the people like me shop.

It’s on brand with Brexit.
Primark and Poundshop Britain.

How dare the plebs be fiscally prudent. Those tasteless workers should spend more on high end consumerism.

Indeed.
East Germany here we come!

East Germany failed because of a lack of market pricing. West Germany succeeded because they combined market capitalism with government intervention and a culture of personal prudence.

Anthony Beevor reckons East Germany failed because the Soviets were a little too eager stripping out factories and research laboratories in their zone of occupied Germany.

Sorry for the vulgarity of the point, but the desire of surviving East German blokes to succeed for their Soviet masters after the communists had quiet literally raped all of their women must've been fairly muted.

That just true, but the Soviets didn't just go after German women, they even attacked former slave labourers (inc. Soviet citizens) and Jewish women too.