Presumably the voters dying off will mostly be older voters so mostly Tories, also the younger voters coming through will be mostly Labour, as things stand anyway.
I've been hearing this argument for 40 years...of which only 14 have been under a Labour government. Shouldn't the Tories all be dead by now?
As Ben Goldacre would observe "I think you'll find its a bit more complicated than that...."
I wasn't referring to the last 40 years though or declaring that demographics equals inevitable victory.
Generally over time the two main parties shift to meet the public so if something did die out in the population it would also die out within the parties as well, it is only ever ideas (an example might be stopping gay marriage) that are doomed, parties can adapt simply by moving away from them. I've never been on board with the idea the Conservative party is doomed over time.
My post was specifically referring to things as they stand now with the Conservatives in government and Labour in opposition. With the older vote going Tory and the younger vote going Labour at the moment. Which just for the sake of the next election and with all other things being equal means the Tories would need to non Tory voters over to stay still with older voters leaving the voting pool and being replaced by younger voters.
The same effect happens with a lower turnout by young voters for Labour.
And its likely to be much harder for Labour to offer to write off student debt at the next election - there will be too much of it for it to be a believable promise.
Labour to win Barnet is up from 1/4 when Ladbrokes first opened the market to 4/6 now. I think this is due to some polls showing good Tory leads nationally and concerns about the antisemitism issue hurting Labour in Barnet. The latter shouldn't for two reasons:
1. Most Jews weren't voting Labour anyway. Polls suggest 31% of Jews voted Labour in 2010, only 14% in 2015. One poll of Jews under Corbyn put support at only 7%, but that isn't much of a loss even in Barnet. 2. The most Jewish wards in Barnet aren't marginal anyway. Barnet is 15% Jewish overall. Wards with over 30% are Edgware, Garden Suburb, Golders Green, Hendon, and Church End - all safe Tory seats anyway. The others with above 15% are Childs Hill, Hale, Mill Hill, and Totteridge. The first two are marginal, but the second two are also safe. That's perhaps two wards in the Borough where the Jewish vote could have any impact, and 15-20% (assuming Labour did better in 2014 than 2015) of 15-25% (of people who are Jews) isn't a massive swing. https://www.barnet.gov.uk/dam/jcr:2504aa95-a0c6-4992-91a9-c5ab44dec5a8/Barnet's_JSNA_2015_-_2020.24-53.pdf
By contrast: 1. In the 2017 snap election Labour made big strides in all 3 constituencies in the Borough; 2. In 2014 the Greens took 10% of the Borough vote, events since then suggest Labour may take chunks out of that. This compares to about 3% of the voters who are Jewish and voted Labour.
The Green and general improvement in Labour (at least in London) since 2014 are more significant than the Jewish vote generally and in marginal wards. Labour aren't nailed on, but they aren't likely to be undermined by an antisemitism backlash much.
I'm on Labour to win. I'm not 100% certain, but definitely more than 60%.
Plus the London Jewish community is in decline, anyway, with both Barnet and Redbridge showing significant falls between the last two censuses.
Presumably the voters dying off will mostly be older voters so mostly Tories, also the younger voters coming through will be mostly Labour, as things stand anyway.
I've been hearing this argument for 40 years...of which only 14 have been under a Labour government. Shouldn't the Tories all be dead by now?
As Ben Goldacre would observe "I think you'll find its a bit more complicated than that...."
In the past the significantly greater tendency for Tories to die has been balanced by people switching rightward as they get to middle age.
The question is whether the rising cohort largely shut out of property ownership will switch to the same extent.
Presumably the voters dying off will mostly be older voters so mostly Tories, also the younger voters coming through will be mostly Labour, as things stand anyway.
I've been hearing this argument for 40 years...of which only 14 have been under a Labour government. Shouldn't the Tories all be dead by now?
As Ben Goldacre would observe "I think you'll find its a bit more complicated than that...."
They have now reversed that direction of travel and retreated to being the nasty party with the added bonus of incompetence.
That's the other argument I've been hearing for 40 years. "The Tories were fine under Heath but - ugh! That awful Thatcher woman will never get them elected - so right wing".
Apart from the late 90s early 00s (when someone pinched their clothes) the Tories understand the importance of winning. Not for them the 'purity of opposition'...At some point they will lose sight of the importance of power again, then come back to their senses.
In the 40 years I've had the vote only 14 of them have been under Labour governments.
Presumably the voters dying off will mostly be older voters so mostly Tories, also the younger voters coming through will be mostly Labour, as things stand anyway.
I've been hearing this argument for 40 years...of which only 14 have been under a Labour government. Shouldn't the Tories all be dead by now?
As Ben Goldacre would observe "I think you'll find its a bit more complicated than that...."
In the past the significantly greater tendency for Tories to die has been balanced by people switching rightward as they get to middle age.
The question is whether the rising cohort largely shut out of property ownership will switch to the same extent.
I think we all know the answer to that one. Look forward to another 1997 in 2027.
I think Brexiteers have something to learn from the Irish War of Independence. Michael Collins recognised that ‘freedom to win freedom’ was worth having, even if it did not satisfy most nationalists.
Perhaps that’s how we should think about staying in a customs union with the EU. The poll from earlier this week showed that the bar to rejoining the EU is much higher than remaining. We should hold our noses to get to 11PM on 29th March 2019; after that, we have all the time in the world.
Senior Cabinet Brexiteers are more concerned about the project than they have been in some time, I write in The Sun this morning.
The reason for this is that there is a concerted push underway to keep Britain in a customs union with the EU for good even after December 2020.
One of the key tests for any Brexit deal is whether it is sustainable. Any deal that doesn’t leave Britain free to make its own comprehensive free trade deals will fail that test and end up with everyone back round the negotiating table within a decade.
Labour to win Barnet is up from 1/4 when Ladbrokes first opened the market to 4/6 now. I think this is due to some polls showing good Tory leads nationally and concerns about the antisemitism issue hurting Labour in Barnet. The latter shouldn't for two reasons:
1. Most Jews weren't voting Labour anyway. Polls suggest 31% of Jews voted Labour in 2010, only 14% in 2015. One poll of Jews under Corbyn put support at only 7%, but that isn't much of a loss even in Barnet. 2. The most Jewish wards in Barnet aren't marginal anyway. Barnet is 15% Jewish overall. Wards with over 30% are Edgware, Garden Suburb, Golders Green, Hendon, and Church End - all safe Tory seats anyway. The others with above 15% are Childs Hill, Hale, Mill Hill, and Totteridge. The first two are marginal, but the second two are also safe. That's perhaps two wards in the Borough where the Jewish vote could have any impact, and 15-20% (assuming Labour did better in 2014 than 2015) of 15-25% (of people who are Jews) isn't a massive swing. https://www.barnet.gov.uk/dam/jcr:2504aa95-a0c6-4992-91a9-c5ab44dec5a8/Barnet's_JSNA_2015_-_2020.24-53.pdf
By contrast: 1. In the 2017 snap election Labour made big strides in all 3 constituencies in the Borough; 2. In 2014 the Greens took 10% of the Borough vote, events since then suggest Labour may take chunks out of that. This compares to about 3% of the voters who are Jewish and voted Labour.
The Green and general improvement in Labour (at least in London) since 2014 are more significant than the Jewish vote generally and in marginal wards. Labour aren't nailed on, but they aren't likely to be undermined by an antisemitism backlash much.
I'm on Labour to win. I'm not 100% certain, but definitely more than 60%.
Plus the London Jewish community is in decline, anyway, with both Barnet and Redbridge showing significant falls between the last two censuses.
Redbridge's Jewish population certainly but I don't think Barnet's did, in fact wikipedia reports it as having increased from 14.8% to 15.5%.
What has happened since 2011 might be another matter.
I think Brexiteers have something to learn from the Irish War of Independence. Michael Collins recognised that ‘freedom to win freedom’ was worth having, even if it did not satisfy most nationalists.
Perhaps that’s how we should think about staying in a customs union with the EU. The poll from earlier this week showed that the bar to rejoining the EU is much higher than remaining. We should hold our noses to get to 11PM on 29th March 2019; after that, we have all the time in the world.
Michael Collins was pretty much right of course. Much to note there as you say.
Presumably the voters dying off will mostly be older voters so mostly Tories, also the younger voters coming through will be mostly Labour, as things stand anyway.
I've been hearing this argument for 40 years...of which only 14 have been under a Labour government. Shouldn't the Tories all be dead by now?
As Ben Goldacre would observe "I think you'll find its a bit more complicated than that...."
In the past the significantly greater tendency for Tories to die has been balanced by people switching rightward as they get to middle age.
The question is whether the rising cohort largely shut out of property ownership will switch to the same extent.
I think we all know the answer to that one. Look forward to another 1997 in 2027.
Ah you mean Labour returns to the centre with Blair 2
I hadn't realised Labour got within 5,000 votes last time.
For those not familiar with the geography, Shoreham is contiguous with the Brighton conurbation and is a pretty working class sort of place, and the eastern half of Worthing and Lancing are not as prosperous as the surrounding areas. It's an easy trip by road or rail for activists from central Brighton who might well regard time spent undermining the eurosceptic sitting Tory MP as time well spent. As I say, worth a punt.
Labour did very well in a lot of South Coast seats. Worthing is a good example, so is Portsmouth South, the Bournemouth seats, and Truro. Curiously, they didn't match this performance on the East Coast, where seats like Great Yarmouth, Waveney, and the Thames Estuary constituencies are now very Conservative.
I wonder if house prices are behind that with the east coast having much lower prices than the south coast.
With affordable housing removing one of the negatives to voting Conservative but also allowing more immigration which provided an incentive to vote Conservative.
It's a reasonable theory. Housing is a big issue on the south coast, especially where rail links to London are good.
It's fascinating to see how big some of the swings have been in individual constituencies over the past generation.
The deal you describe is really the worst of all Worlds. It would be massively harmful to the UK to have to follow the economic and trade policy of another 'country'. But that is the reality with the Remainers - they don't really care about whether the UK gets a good deal as long as they can start the process of unwinding Brexit.
The good thing about the EUs position is that it is so uncompromising that if (when) May caves in, there will be no doubt that what she is doing is completely against the will of the people as expressed in the referendum. If we stay in the CU and have to follow SM rules (the two go together, there is no CU agreement with regulatory divergence on offer), we will not have taken back control, and that is specifically what people voted for. The argument that people voted to leave the EU but remain in the CU is a lie, pure and simple.
I am surprised that there has been so little discussion here of the EU's rejection of the NI border suggestions as the endgame is a complete capitulation by the PM. It seems there is an assumption that she will capitulate so it is not worth discussing. But there is a reason that the polls will not show a break to the Tories despite Corbyn's return to usual form - people don't trust her on Brexit. Nobody wants to make a move until the endgame plays out but her support will collapse if she caves in, and that (other than walking away) is all that is left to do. I still believe that she will be gone by October.
Leavers say there will be a deal and Project Fear avoided because the adults are in the room. I am inclined to agree. The adults will go for CU+SM+CAP as I have outlined. Leavers will go along with it because the only viable alternative is membership of the EU. No deal is not viable and will result in rejoining unless they take this option. Most Leavers aren't interested in the exercise of sovereignty. (More a Remainer interest actually). A recent poll on what the Leave campaign was about put Taking back control at 4% and sovereignty at 3% .
The immediate priority is the A50 withdrawal agreement backstop. As currently drafted NI will have a different regime from the UK, which Mrs May says no British PM would agree to. She will either have to agree.and get the DUP to go along, the EU will drop this section of the agreement (unlikely) or she puts SM+CU+CAP as the backstop for all UK. She has a couple of months to decide.
I think Brexiteers have something to learn from the Irish War of Independence. Michael Collins recognised that ‘freedom to win freedom’ was worth having, even if it did not satisfy most nationalists.
Perhaps that’s how we should think about staying in a customs union with the EU. The poll from earlier this week showed that the bar to rejoining the EU is much higher than remaining. We should hold our noses to get to 11PM on 29th March 2019; after that, we have all the time in the world.
There will be a reckoning if May keeps us in the customs union.
It's a rather naked political ploy by the ultra-Remainers to make Brexit a lame duck, in the hope that they can then play the long-game.
the core problem is price for housing. The rampant house price inflation during the Blair government can’t be ignored in all of this. It was great if you joined the house owning party in 2001. In the space of ten years a house bought for £50k was worth £100k and a £20k mortage.
What seems to separate most communities in life with their chances of prosperity isn’t between those who have millions and nothing it’s between those who have something and nothing. The first £50k to £100k in life is the hardest to achieve. Once you’ve got it other things fall in place.
We all got that thanks to Blair, just like many of us got it thanks to Maggie with right to buy. I would have great difficulty acquiring the kind of home I have now if I hadn’t accrued the £100k of equity necessary to get the mortgage on it following house price inflation.
House price inflation is not zero sum. Yes you have to pay more for your next house that you might have had to but you can choose different areas of the country etc. But if you haven’t experienced that inflation and got the equity then it’s pretty tough.
Ps. Council houses are not the solution except in maybe very specific circumstances....
Labour to win Barnet is up from 1/4 when Ladbrokes first opened the market to 4/6 now. I think this is due to some polls showing good Tory leads nationally and concerns about the antisemitism issue hurting Labour in Barnet. The latter shouldn't for two reasons:
1. Most Jews weren't voting Labour anyway. Polls suggest 31% of Jews voted Labour in 2010, only 14% in 2015. One poll of Jews under Corbyn put support at only 7%, but that isn't much of a loss even in Barnet. 2. The most Jewish wards in Barnet aren't marginal anyway. Barnet is 15% Jewish overall. Wards with over 30% are Edgware, Garden Suburb, Golders Green, Hendon, and Church End - all safe Tory seats anyway. The others with above 15% are Childs Hill, Hale, Mill Hill, and Totteridge. The first two are marginal, but the second two are also safe. That's perhaps two wards in the Borough where the Jewish vote could have any impact, and 15-20% (assuming Labour did better in 2014 than 2015) of 15-25% (of people who are Jews) isn't a massive swing. https://www.barnet.gov.uk/dam/jcr:2504aa95-a0c6-4992-91a9-c5ab44dec5a8/Barnet's_JSNA_2015_-_2020.24-53.pdf
By contrast: 1. In the 2017 snap election Labour made big strides in all 3 constituencies in the Borough; 2. In 2014 the Greens took 10% of the Borough vote, events since then suggest Labour may take chunks out of that. This compares to about 3% of the voters who are Jewish and voted Labour.
The Green and general improvement in Labour (at least in London) since 2014 are more significant than the Jewish vote generally and in marginal wards. Labour aren't nailed on, but they aren't likely to be undermined by an antisemitism backlash much.
I'm on Labour to win. I'm not 100% certain, but definitely more than 60%.
Bear in mind that there was no swing at all to Labour in Barnet, between 2014 and 2017. Across London as whole, the Conservative vote share rose by 7% between those three years, whereas Labour's vote share rose by 18%. In Barnet, each party saw its share rise by 9%. The Conservatives won 32 seats to 30 for Labour and 1 Lib Dem, while in 2017, the Conservatives led in 11 wards to 10 for Labour, notwithstanding that the Green vote was heavily squeezed.
Labour to win Barnet is up from 1/4 when Ladbrokes first opened the market to 4/6 now. I think this is due to some polls showing good Tory leads nationally and concerns about the antisemitism issue hurting Labour in Barnet. The latter shouldn't for two reasons:
1. Most Jews weren't voting Labour anyway. Polls suggest 31% of Jews voted Labour in 2010, only 14% in 2015. One poll of Jews under Corbyn put support at only 7%, but that isn't much of a loss even in Barnet. 2. The most Jewish wards in Barnet aren't marginal anyway. Barnet is 15% Jewish overall. Wards with over 30% are Edgware, Garden Suburb, Golders Green, Hendon, and Church End - all safe Tory seats anyway. The others with above 15% are Childs Hill, Hale, Mill Hill, and Totteridge. The first two are marginal, but the second two are also safe. That's perhaps two wards in the Borough where the Jewish vote could have any impact, and 15-20% (assuming Labour did better in 2014 than 2015) of 15-25% (of people who are Jews) isn't a massive swing. https://www.barnet.gov.uk/dam/jcr:2504aa95-a0c6-4992-91a9-c5ab44dec5a8/Barnet's_JSNA_2015_-_2020.24-53.pdf
By contrast: 1. In the 2017 snap election Labour made big strides in all 3 constituencies in the Borough; 2. In 2014 the Greens took 10% of the Borough vote, events since then suggest Labour may take chunks out of that. This compares to about 3% of the voters who are Jewish and voted Labour.
The Green and general improvement in Labour (at least in London) since 2014 are more significant than the Jewish vote generally and in marginal wards. Labour aren't nailed on, but they aren't likely to be undermined by an antisemitism backlash much.
I'm on Labour to win. I'm not 100% certain, but definitely more than 60%.
Plus the London Jewish community is in decline, anyway, with both Barnet and Redbridge showing significant falls between the last two censuses.
Redbridge's Jewish population certainly but I don't think Barnet's did, in fact wikipedia reports it as having increased from 14.8% to 15.5%.
What has happened since 2011 might be another matter.
As far as I can tell, Barnet's Jewish population is increasing, although it's certainly declining in places like Ilford and Southgate
I think Brexiteers have something to learn from the Irish War of Independence. Michael Collins recognised that ‘freedom to win freedom’ was worth having, even if it did not satisfy most nationalists.
Perhaps that’s how we should think about staying in a customs union with the EU. The poll from earlier this week showed that the bar to rejoining the EU is much higher than remaining. We should hold our noses to get to 11PM on 29th March 2019; after that, we have all the time in the world.
There will be a reckoning if May keeps us in the customs union.
It's a rather naked political ploy by the ultra-Remainers to make Brexit a lame duck, in the hope that they can then play the long-game.
There will not be a reckoning.
Only a few retired sergeant-majors in Broadstairs give a damn, and they are too deaf and infirm to cause trouble.
As it happens, I’m not convinced by the customs union myself - but as we seem to have decided to pursue an entire worldview sans logic and sans fact, there’s not much to be done about it.
I think Brexiteers have something to learn from the Irish War of Independence. Michael Collins recognised that ‘freedom to win freedom’ was worth having, even if it did not satisfy most nationalists.
Perhaps that’s how we should think about staying in a customs union with the EU. The poll from earlier this week showed that the bar to rejoining the EU is much higher than remaining. We should hold our noses to get to 11PM on 29th March 2019; after that, we have all the time in the world.
There will be a reckoning if May keeps us in the customs union.
It's a rather naked political ploy by the ultra-Remainers to make Brexit a lame duck, in the hope that they can then play the long-game.
There will not be a reckoning.
Only a few retired sergeant-majors in Broadstairs give a damn, and they are too deaf and infirm to cause trouble.
As it happens, I’m not convinced by the customs union myself - but as we seem to have decided to pursue an entire worldview sans logic and sans fact, there’s not much to be done about it.
Exactly. We're heading towards the messy stalemate I expected from the moment the referendum result came in. Leavers prefer it to membership of the EU, which is the only viable alternative, and which Remainers continue to think is better anyway. No-one wants Project Fear.
Labour to win Barnet is up from 1/4 when Ladbrokes first opened the market to 4/6 now. I think this is due to some polls showing good Tory leads nationally and concerns about the antisemitism issue hurting Labour in Barnet. The latter shouldn't for two reasons:
1. Most Jews weren't voting Labour anyway. Polls suggest 31% of Jews voted Labour in 2010, only 14% in 2015. One poll of Jews under Corbyn put support at only 7%, but that isn't much of a loss even in Barnet. 2. The most Jewish wards in Barnet aren't marginal anyway. Barnet is 15% Jewish overall. Wards with over 30% are Edgware, Garden Suburb, Golders Green, Hendon, and Church End - all safe Tory seats anyway. The others with above 15% are Childs Hill, Hale, Mill Hill, and Totteridge. The first two are marginal, but the second two are also safe. That's perhaps two wards in the Borough where the Jewish vote could have any impact, and 15-20% (assuming Labour did better in 2014 than 2015) of 15-25% (of people who are Jews) isn't a massive swing. https://www.barnet.gov.uk/dam/jcr:2504aa95-a0c6-4992-91a9-c5ab44dec5a8/Barnet's_JSNA_2015_-_2020.24-53.pdf
By contrast: 1. In the 2017 snap election Labour made big strides in all 3 constituencies in the Borough; 2. In 2014 the Greens took 10% of the Borough vote, events since then suggest Labour may take chunks out of that. This compares to about 3% of the voters who are Jewish and voted Labour.
The Green and general improvement in Labour (at least in London) since 2014 are more significant than the Jewish vote generally and in marginal wards. Labour aren't nailed on, but they aren't likely to be undermined by an antisemitism backlash much.
I'm on Labour to win. I'm not 100% certain, but definitely more than 60%.
Plus the London Jewish community is in decline, anyway, with both Barnet and Redbridge showing significant falls between the last two censuses.
Redbridge's Jewish population certainly but I don't think Barnet's did, in fact wikipedia reports it as having increased from 14.8% to 15.5%.
What has happened since 2011 might be another matter.
As far as I can tell, Barnet's Jewish population is increasing, although it's certainly declining in places like Ilford and Southgate
Labour to win Barnet is up from 1/4 when Ladbrokes first opened the market to 4/6 now. I think this is due to some polls showing good Tory leads nationally and concerns about the antisemitism issue hurting Labour in Barnet. The latter shouldn't for two reasons:
1. Most Jews weren't voting Labour anyway. Polls suggest 31% of Jews voted Labour in 2010, only 14% in 2015. One poll of Jews under Corbyn put support at only 7%, but that isn't much of a loss even in Barnet. 2. The most Jewish wards in Barnet aren't marginal anyway. Barnet is 15% Jewish overall. Wards with over 30% are Edgware, Garden Suburb, Golders Green, Hendon, and Church End - all safe Tory seats anyway. The others with above 15% are Childs Hill, Hale, Mill Hill, and Totteridge. The first two are marginal, but the second two are also safe. That's perhaps two wards in the Borough where the Jewish vote could have any impact, and 15-20% (assuming Labour did better in 2014 than 2015) of 15-25% (of people who are Jews) isn't a massive swing. https://www.barnet.gov.uk/dam/jcr:2504aa95-a0c6-4992-91a9-c5ab44dec5a8/Barnet's_JSNA_2015_-_2020.24-53.pdf
By contrast: 1. In the 2017 snap election Labour made big strides in all 3 constituencies in the Borough; 2. In 2014 the Greens took 10% of the Borough vote, events since then suggest Labour may take chunks out of that. This compares to about 3% of the voters who are Jewish and voted Labour.
The Green and general improvement in Labour (at least in London) since 2014 are more significant than the Jewish vote generally and in marginal wards. Labour aren't nailed on, but they aren't likely to be undermined by an antisemitism backlash much.
I'm on Labour to win. I'm not 100% certain, but definitely more than 60%.
Bear in mind that there was no swing at all to Labour in Barnet, between 2014 and 2017. Across London as whole, the Conservative vote share rose by 7% between those three years, whereas Labour's vote share rose by 18%. In Barnet, each party saw its share rise by 9%. The Conservatives won 32 seats to 30 for Labour and 1 Lib Dem, while in 2017, the Conservatives led in 11 wards to 10 for Labour, notwithstanding that the Green vote was heavily squeezed.
I remain of the view that it's a coin toss.
Which elections are you comparing? If it's 2014 locals to 2017 general then it's worth factoring in Labour have done better locally for a while than at constituency level. Certainly 2015 to 2017 generals show a swing of between 2.5-7% in the 3 constituencies.
Labour to win Barnet is up from 1/4 when Ladbrokes first opened the market to 4/6 now. I think this is due to some polls showing good Tory leads nationally and concerns about the antisemitism issue hurting Labour in Barnet. The latter shouldn't for two reasons:
1. Most Jews weren't voting Labour anyway. Polls suggest 31% of Jews voted Labour in 2010, only 14% in 2015. One poll of Jews under Corbyn put support at only 7%, but that isn't much of a loss even in Barnet. 2. The most Jewish wards in Barnet aren't marginal anyway. Barnet is 15% Jewish overall. Wards with over 30% are Edgware, Garden Suburb, Golders Green, Hendon, and Church End - all safe Tory seats anyway. The others with above 15% are Childs Hill, Hale, Mill Hill, and Totteridge. The first two are marginal, but the second two are also safe. That's perhaps two wards in the Borough where the Jewish vote could have any impact, and 15-20% (assuming Labour did better in 2014 than 2015) of 15-25% (of people who are Jews) isn't a massive swing. https://www.barnet.gov.uk/dam/jcr:2504aa95-a0c6-4992-91a9-c5ab44dec5a8/Barnet's_JSNA_2015_-_2020.24-53.pdf
By contrast: 1. In the 2017 snap election Labour made big strides in all 3 constituencies in the Borough; 2. In 2014 the Greens took 10% of the Borough vote, events since then suggest Labour may take chunks out of that. This compares to about 3% of the voters who are Jewish and voted Labour.
The Green and general improvement in Labour (at least in London) since 2014 are more significant than the Jewish vote generally and in marginal wards. Labour aren't nailed on, but they aren't likely to be undermined by an antisemitism backlash much.
I'm on Labour to win. I'm not 100% certain, but definitely more than 60%.
Bear in mind that there was no swing at all to Labour in Barnet, between 2014 and 2017. Across London as whole, the Conservative vote share rose by 7% between those three years, whereas Labour's vote share rose by 18%. In Barnet, each party saw its share rise by 9%. The Conservatives won 32 seats to 30 for Labour and 1 Lib Dem, while in 2017, the Conservatives led in 11 wards to 10 for Labour, notwithstanding that the Green vote was heavily squeezed.
I remain of the view that it's a coin toss.
Which elections are you comparing? If it's 2014 locals to 2017 general then it's worth factoring in Labour have done better locally for a while than at constituency level.
Labour's percentage lead across London in the general election of 2017, was much bigger than its percentage lead in the local elections of 2014
I think Brexiteers have something to learn from the Irish War of Independence. Michael Collins recognised that ‘freedom to win freedom’ was worth having, even if it did not satisfy most nationalists.
Perhaps that’s how we should think about staying in a customs union with the EU. The poll from earlier this week showed that the bar to rejoining the EU is much higher than remaining. We should hold our noses to get to 11PM on 29th March 2019; after that, we have all the time in the world.
There will be a reckoning if May keeps us in the customs union.
It's a rather naked political ploy by the ultra-Remainers to make Brexit a lame duck, in the hope that they can then play the long-game.
If Brexiteers collapse the government over the customs union, we might not leave at all. Would you prefer that?
I don’t think we can really blame Europhiles for playing a long game, considering those who kept the flame of Euroscepticism burning for the 41 years from 1975 to 2016. Tactical retreats in support of strategic goals are perfectly reasonable.
Most people who voted for Brexit would be happy with an end to free movement and significantly reduced contributions to Brussels. Few will die in a ditch for the right to set our own tariffs. The EU has the lowest of any major trade bloc in any case.
I think Brexiteers have something to learn from the Irish War of Independence. Michael Collins recognised that ‘freedom to win freedom’ was worth having, even if it did not satisfy most nationalists.
Perhaps that’s how we should think about staying in a customs union with the EU. The poll from earlier this week showed that the bar to rejoining the EU is much higher than remaining. We should hold our noses to get to 11PM on 29th March 2019; after that, we have all the time in the world.
There will be a reckoning if May keeps us in the customs union.
It's a rather naked political ploy by the ultra-Remainers to make Brexit a lame duck, in the hope that they can then play the long-game.
There will not be a reckoning.
Only a few retired sergeant-majors in Broadstairs give a damn, and they are too deaf and infirm to cause trouble.
As it happens, I’m not convinced by the customs union myself - but as we seem to have decided to pursue an entire worldview sans logic and sans fact, there’s not much to be done about it.
I'm currently reading All Out War, and it's that kind of attitude which has led us to where we are now.
Labour's percentage lead across London in the general election of 2017, was much bigger than its percentage lead in the local elections of 2014
I meant just in Barnet, but admittedly wasn't at all clear. Tories hold all 3 seats at Westminster but the Council has been basically split or tiny Tory majority. In 2014 Labour made gains to practically split the Council evenly but didn't get nearly as close a year later to taking the constituencies. If the pattern holds (a big if, I accept) then the 2017 results bode well for them.
I think Brexiteers have something to learn from the Irish War of Independence. Michael Collins recognised that ‘freedom to win freedom’ was worth having, even if it did not satisfy most nationalists.
Perhaps that’s how we should think about staying in a customs union with the EU. The poll from earlier this week showed that the bar to rejoining the EU is much higher than remaining. We should hold our noses to get to 11PM on 29th March 2019; after that, we have all the time in the world.
There will be a reckoning if May keeps us in the customs union.
It's a rather naked political ploy by the ultra-Remainers to make Brexit a lame duck, in the hope that they can then play the long-game.
There will not be a reckoning.
Only a few retired sergeant-majors in Broadstairs give a damn, and they are too deaf and infirm to cause trouble.
As it happens, I’m not convinced by the customs union myself - but as we seem to have decided to pursue an entire worldview sans logic and sans fact, there’s not much to be done about it.
I'm currently reading All Out War, and it's that kind of attitude which has led us to where we are now.
Polling doesn’t evidence any kind of movement against the customs union. We are talking about a minority of a minority.
Eurosceptism itself started from a much higher base. The referendum would never have been won on the back of a few retired sergeant-majors.
I think Brexiteers have something to learn from the Irish War of Independence. Michael Collins recognised that ‘freedom to win freedom’ was worth having, even if it did not satisfy most nationalists.
Perhaps that’s how we should think about staying in a customs union with the EU. The poll from earlier this week showed that the bar to rejoining the EU is much higher than remaining. We should hold our noses to get to 11PM on 29th March 2019; after that, we have all the time in the world.
There will be a reckoning if May keeps us in the customs union.
It's a rather naked political ploy by the ultra-Remainers to make Brexit a lame duck, in the hope that they can then play the long-game.
If Brexiteers collapse the government over the customs union, we might not leave at all. Would you prefer that?
Presumably the voters dying off will mostly be older voters so mostly Tories, also the younger voters coming through will be mostly Labour, as things stand anyway.
I've been hearing this argument for 40 years...of which only 14 have been under a Labour government. Shouldn't the Tories all be dead by now?
As Ben Goldacre would observe "I think you'll find its a bit more complicated than that...."
I wasn't referring to the last 40 years though or declaring that demographics equals inevitable victory.
Generally over time the two main parties shift to meet the public so if something did die out in the population it would also die out within the parties as well, it is only ever ideas (an example might be stopping gay marriage) that are doomed, parties can adapt simply by moving away from them. I've never been on board with the idea the Conservative party is doomed over time.
My post was specifically referring to things as they stand now with the Conservatives in government and Labour in opposition. With the older vote going Tory and the younger vote going Labour at the moment. Which just for the sake of the next election and with all other things being equal means the Tories would need to non Tory voters over to stay still with older voters leaving the voting pool and being replaced by younger voters.
The same effect happens with a lower turnout by young voters for Labour.
And its likely to be much harder for Labour to offer to write off student debt at the next election - there will be too much of it for it to be a believable promise.
Of course if you change the turnout of any voting group it would affect the result but I would imagine younger Labour voters coming out in greater numbers rather than smaller numbers.
Unless the amounts of people going to university have changed dramatically then the same manifesto pledge would cost a similar amount.
Presumably the voters dying off will mostly be older voters so mostly Tories, also the younger voters coming through will be mostly Labour, as things stand anyway.
I've been hearing this argument for 40 years...of which only 14 have been under a Labour government. Shouldn't the Tories all be dead by now?
As Ben Goldacre would observe "I think you'll find its a bit more complicated than that...."
In the past the significantly greater tendency for Tories to die has been balanced by people switching rightward as they get to middle age.
The question is whether the rising cohort largely shut out of property ownership will switch to the same extent.
I think we all know the answer to that one. Look forward to another 1997 in 2027.
Ah you mean Labour returns to the centre with Blair 2
Corbyn would have been Blair 2 had he won last year. There's only a narrow range of policy options open to any sensible government does. What rhetorical approach they adopt while winning it is another matter altogether.
I’m having difficulty following what’s going on with this. I saw his speech and he made refer4nce to a dead animal been put through his letterbox sent to his wife or some such thing. This seemed link to the current debate but Kevin Mcguire said that this was something that happened years and years ago.
What the Conservatives were offering to reduce intergenerational unfairness was much less than what Corbyn was offering added to which much of the intergenerational unfairness was caused by Cameron and Osborne.
If May had offered the changes to student debt which have subsequently happened there would have been a Conservative majority in 2017.
That those changes have happened gives credibilty to the idea that voting for Corbyn brings benefits to the young.
Sorry, Mr Richard. I must have missed that. What are the changes in student debt that have happened since the general election?
Presumably the voters dying off will mostly be older voters so mostly Tories, also the younger voters coming through will be mostly Labour, as things stand anyway.
I've been hearing this argument for 40 years...of which only 14 have been under a Labour government. Shouldn't the Tories all be dead by now?
As Ben Goldacre would observe "I think you'll find its a bit more complicated than that...."
In the past the significantly greater tendency for Tories to die has been balanced by people switching rightward as they get to middle age.
The question is whether the rising cohort largely shut out of property ownership will switch to the same extent.
I think we all know the answer to that one. Look forward to another 1997 in 2027.
Ah you mean Labour returns to the centre with Blair 2
Corbyn would have been Blair 2 had he won last year. There's only a narrow range of policy options open to any sensible government does. What rhetorical approach they adopt while winning it is another matter altogether.
Corbyn would have been constrained by the fact that if he had won, say, 15 more seats, he would have been well short of an overall majority, and would have found it hard to pursue some of his more radical aims. If he had won an overall majority, then I think all bets would have been off.
Presumably the voters dying off will mostly be older voters so mostly Tories, also the younger voters coming through will be mostly Labour, as things stand anyway.
I've been hearing this argument for 40 years...of which only 14 have been under a Labour government. Shouldn't the Tories all be dead by now?
As Ben Goldacre would observe "I think you'll find its a bit more complicated than that...."
In the past the significantly greater tendency for Tories to die has been balanced by people switching rightward as they get to middle age.
The question is whether the rising cohort largely shut out of property ownership will switch to the same extent.
I think we all know the answer to that one. Look forward to another 1997 in 2027.
Ah you mean Labour returns to the centre with Blair 2
Corbyn would have been Blair 2 had he won last year. There's only a narrow range of policy options open to any sensible government does. What rhetorical approach they adopt while winning it is another matter altogether.
But what do you think would be the response by a Corbyn government when civil servants tell them that to get the best out of the money we spend on the nhs requires us to use the private sector. If we switch back to wholly owned public sector we can’t get as many procedures carried out.
Or when his education minister comes back and says, you know what, these academies, I know some of them haven’t been very good but overall the kids, usually poorer ones seem to be getting much better results. Are you sure you want to put them all back in the hands of the local council?
I think Brexiteers have something to learn from the Irish War of Independence. Michael Collins recognised that ‘freedom to win freedom’ was worth having, even if it did not satisfy most nationalists.
Perhaps that’s how we should think about staying in a customs union with the EU. The poll from earlier this week showed that the bar to rejoining the EU is much higher than remaining. We should hold our noses to get to 11PM on 29th March 2019; after that, we have all the time in the world.
There will be a reckoning if May keeps us in the customs union.
It's a rather naked political ploy by the ultra-Remainers to make Brexit a lame duck, in the hope that they can then play the long-game.
There will not be a reckoning.
Only a few retired sergeant-majors in Broadstairs give a damn, and they are too deaf and infirm to cause trouble.
As it happens, I’m not convinced by the customs union myself - but as we seem to have decided to pursue an entire worldview sans logic and sans fact, there’s not much to be done about it.
I'm currently reading All Out War, and it's that kind of attitude which has led us to where we are now.
Polling doesn’t evidence any kind of movement against the customs union. We are talking about a minority of a minority.
Eurosceptism itself started from a much higher base. The referendum would never have been won on the back of a few retired sergeant-majors.
There were multiple necessary conditions that all gelled together in 2016 to produce the result:
- A committed minority who were never reconciled to any kind of political integration at all (primarily with Germany). - A complacent elite who were used to Britain being able to get its own way. - A disaffected electorate who wanted to give the political class a kicking.
Since the vote the first group have been chastened, the second group have been humbled, and the third group have had their catharsis.
The Brexit 'moment' has expired and can never be repeated.
What the Conservatives were offering to reduce intergenerational unfairness was much less than what Corbyn was offering added to which much of the intergenerational unfairness was caused by Cameron and Osborne.
If May had offered the changes to student debt which have subsequently happened there would have been a Conservative majority in 2017.
That those changes have happened gives credibilty to the idea that voting for Corbyn brings benefits to the young.
Sorry, Mr Richard. I must have missed that. What are the changes in student debt that have happened since the general election?
It’s just a graduate contribution system with an end point. I wonder if the promise to get rid of upfront tuition fees is just that, a complete promise or a fudge? Will there be a graduate tax to fund it instead? In issuance for most That’s what we have now 9% of everything over £25k pa.
I think Brexiteers have something to learn from the Irish War of Independence. Michael Collins recognised that ‘freedom to win freedom’ was worth having, even if it did not satisfy most nationalists.
Perhaps that’s how we should think about staying in a customs union with the EU. The poll from earlier this week showed that the bar to rejoining the EU is much higher than remaining. We should hold our noses to get to 11PM on 29th March 2019; after that, we have all the time in the world.
There will be a reckoning if May keeps us in the customs union.
It's a rather naked political ploy by the ultra-Remainers to make Brexit a lame duck, in the hope that they can then play the long-game.
If Brexiteers collapse the government over the customs union, we might not leave at all. Would you prefer that?
I don’t think we can really blame Europhiles for playing a long game, considering those who kept the flame of Euroscepticism burning for the 41 years from 1975 to 2016. Tactical retreats in support of strategic goals are perfectly reasonable.
Most people who voted for Brexit would be happy with an end to free movement and significantly reduced contributions to Brussels. Few will die in a ditch for the right to set our own tariffs. The EU has the lowest of any major trade bloc in any case.
The long term trick is to keep alive the theoretical possibility of diverging without ever actually diverging. It's not going to be a comfortable experience. Client status.never is.
The long term trick is to keep alive the theoretical possibility of diverging without ever actually diverging.
Ironically the best way to achieve that would be to remain in the EU. "We could leave if we wanted to. We've just proven it."
It's a good point. It's like "punishment works". Punishment only works if you never apply it. In the end Brexit is a failure. I'm not making a pro-remain point here. Enough people decided they dislike the EU that they voted to get out.
Most people who voted for Brexit would be happy with an end to free movement and significantly reduced contributions to Brussels.
I'm the opposite. I couldn't care less about immigration really... But I do want to reclaim sovereignty and a large part of that is being able to make our own trade deals.
So I'd rather leave the customs union and stay in the single market (as I'm not at all fussed about freedom of movement)
It does look as though Theresa is reaching the crunch one way or another though.
Leavers say there will be a deal and Project Fear avoided because the adults are in the room. I am inclined to agree. The adults will go for CU+SM+CAP as I have outlined. Leavers will go along with it because the only viable alternative is membership of the EU. No deal is not viable and will result in rejoining unless they take this option. Most Leavers aren't interested in the exercise of sovereignty. (More a Remainer interest actually). A recent poll on what the Leave campaign was about put Taking back control at 4% and sovereignty at 3% .
The immediate priority is the A50 withdrawal agreement backstop. As currently drafted NI will have a different regime from the UK, which Mrs May says no British PM would agree to. She will either have to agree.and get the DUP to go along, the EU will drop this section of the agreement (unlikely) or she puts SM+CU+CAP as the backstop for all UK. She has a couple of months to decide.
You are simply stating lies as facts to support your Worldview. Saying that 'no deal is not viable' and that 'there are no viable alternatives' is simply a lie. There are viable alternatives. How do I know this? Because virtually every other country in the World uses them. You can argue that these alternatives are sub-optimal in your opinion, but they clearly exist and clearly could be used. The idea of a nation settings its own trade policy, managing its own borders and customs checks and setting its own standards is not in the slightest bit unusual.
May cannot take the route you state without being toppled. She is stupid and weak and listening to advice from civil servants who have no other objective than to undermine Brexit. She now has no way out of the trap she has made for herself. She is finished.
Unfortunately, it is now true that Hard Brexit will be damaging to the economy in the short term because we have not prepared for it and probably now cannot do so without there being damage, but it will happen anyway. That is all the Remainers will have achieved.
Mr. 43, the electorate didn't vote for us to be a client state. That is the will of certain members of the political class. It's an act of sabotage against one's own nation to support the opposite side of the table (and, from some, to collude with them) in a negotiation.
It is what one might expect from the likes of Corbyn, given his historical view of Northern Ireland and more recent pronouncements on Russia.
And we are supposed to believe this has been designed, built and commissioned all since the Brexit vote huh?
Colour me skeptical...
If an Irish truck wants to go to France, we’d surely much rather it went directly, and didn’t add to our congestion and wearing out our roads without contributing a penny.
Leavers say there will be a deal and Project Fear avoided because the adults are in the room. I am inclined to agree. The adults will go for CU+SM+CAP as I have outlined. Leavers will go along with it because the only viable alternative is membership of the EU. No deal is not viable and will result in rejoining unless they take this option. Most Leavers aren't interested in the exercise of sovereignty. (More a Remainer interest actually). A recent poll on what the Leave campaign was about put Taking back control at 4% and sovereignty at 3% .
The immediate priority is the A50 withdrawal agreement backstop. As currently drafted NI will have a different regime from the UK, which Mrs May says no British PM would agree to. She will either have to agree.and get the DUP to go along, the EU will drop this section of the agreement (unlikely) or she puts SM+CU+CAP as the backstop for all UK. She has a couple of months to decide.
You are simply stating lies as facts to support your Worldview. Saying that 'no deal is not viable' and that 'there are no viable alternatives' is simply a lie. There are viable alternatives. How do I know this? Because virtually every other country in the World uses them. You can argue that these alternatives are sub-optimal in your opinion, but they clearly exist and clearly could be used. The idea of a nation settings its own trade policy, managing its own borders and customs checks and setting its own standards is not in the slightest bit unusual.
May cannot take the route you state without being toppled. She is stupid and weak and listening to advice from civil servants who have no other objective than to undermine Brexit. She now has no way out of the trap she has made for herself. She is finished.
Unfortunately, it is now true that Hard Brexit will be damaging to the economy in the short term because we have not prepared for it and probably now cannot do so without there being damage, but it will happen anyway. That is all the Remainers will have achieved.
Hard Brexit may happen. It will be followed by moves to rejoin the EU because it will look like disaster. I doubt Leavers want that. Leavers want people to think, that wasn't so bad, it's very similar to what we had before.
The EU is the only game in town in Europe. If we want to work with other European nations we have to go through the EU and they are not going to change the way they do things. If we want the nice things of the status quo like car factories, aviation industries, export markets that keep hill farmers I business etc etc, we have no choice but a close relationship with the EU on its terms. That's exactly what we will choose. Sorry.
What the Conservatives were offering to reduce intergenerational unfairness was much less than what Corbyn was offering added to which much of the intergenerational unfairness was caused by Cameron and Osborne.
If May had offered the changes to student debt which have subsequently happened there would have been a Conservative majority in 2017.
That those changes have happened gives credibilty to the idea that voting for Corbyn brings benefits to the young.
Sorry, Mr Richard. I must have missed that. What are the changes in student debt that have happened since the general election?
It’s just a graduate contribution system with an end point. I wonder if the promise to get rid of upfront tuition fees is just that, a complete promise or a fudge? Will there be a graduate tax to fund it instead? In issuance for most That’s what we have now 9% of everything over £25k pa.
I'm going to be paying less than I've would if I had a lower salary, because of interest. That's not how a "graduate contribution system" works, it's how a loan works
Facebook has moved more than 1.5 billion users out of reach of European privacy law, despite a promise from Mark Zuckerberg to apply the “spirit” of the legislation globally.
In a tweak to its terms and conditions, Facebook is shifting the responsibility for all users outside the US, Canada and the EU from its international HQ in Ireland to its main offices in California. It means that those users will now be on a site governed by US law rather than Irish law.
Mr. 43, the electorate didn't vote for us to be a client state. That is the will of certain members of the political class. It's an act of sabotage against one's own nation to support the opposite side of the table (and, from some, to collude with them) in a negotiation.
It is what one might expect from the likes of Corbyn, given his historical view of Northern Ireland and more recent pronouncements on Russia.
Mr Dancer, I didn't vote for client status either. But that's what we will get. OK it's not a certainty, but a much bigger than 50% probability. And if we go for no deal we'll probably end up there or back Iin membership anyway, but it will be a very nasty journey getting there
You are simply stating lies as facts to support your Worldview. Saying that 'no deal is not viable' and that 'there are no viable alternatives' is simply a lie. There are viable alternatives. How do I know this? Because virtually every other country in the World uses them. You can argue that these alternatives are sub-optimal in your opinion, but they clearly exist and clearly could be used. The idea of a nation settings its own trade policy, managing its own borders and customs checks and setting its own standards is not in the slightest bit unusual.
May cannot take the route you state without being toppled. She is stupid and weak and listening to advice from civil servants who have no other objective than to undermine Brexit. She now has no way out of the trap she has made for herself. She is finished.
Unfortunately, it is now true that Hard Brexit will be damaging to the economy in the short term because we have not prepared for it and probably now cannot do so without there being damage, but it will happen anyway. That is all the Remainers will have achieved.
Hard Brexit may happen. It will be followed by moves to rejoin the EU because it will look like disaster. I doubt Leavers want that. Leavers want people to think, that wasn't so bad, it's very similar to what we had before.
The EU is the only game in town in Europe. If we want to work with other European nations we have to go through the EU and they are not going to change the way they do things. If we want the nice things of the status quo like car factories, aviation industries, export markets that keep hill farmers I business etc etc, we have no choice but a close relationship with the EU on its terms. That's exactly what we will choose. Sorry.
Except that, no matter how much you wish it to be true, the PM has no chance of being able to sign up to remaining in all but name without being replaced by her own side. The PCP wouldn’t hesitate to replace her with someone like Michael Gove if they thought it would result in a better (looser) deal with the EU.
Except that, no matter how much you wish it to be true, the PM has no chance of being able to sign up to remaining in all but name without being replaced by her own side. The PCP wouldn’t hesitate to replace her with someone like Michael Gove if they thought it would result in a better (looser) deal with the EU.
Since returning to the cabinet Gove has:
- Committed to giving continued access to our fishing waters - Ruled out accepting US agricultural standards for imports - Reneged on leaving the CFP in 2019
Do you really think the PCP would choose someone like him to get a better deal than May?
Woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow...that is a lot of money.
The Stars Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TSG; TSX: TSGI) (“The Stars Group” or “the Company”) announced today that it has agreed to acquire Sky Betting & Gaming (“SBG”) from CVC Capital Partners (“CVC”) and Sky plc (LSE: SKY) (“Sky”) in a cash and stock transaction valued at $4.7 billion. This combination will result in the world’s largest publicly listed online gaming company.
What the Conservatives were offering to reduce intergenerational unfairness was much less than what Corbyn was offering added to which much of the intergenerational unfairness was caused by Cameron and Osborne.
If May had offered the changes to student debt which have subsequently happened there would have been a Conservative majority in 2017.
That those changes have happened gives credibilty to the idea that voting for Corbyn brings benefits to the young.
Sorry, Mr Richard. I must have missed that. What are the changes in student debt that have happened since the general election?
It’s just a graduate contribution system with an end point. I wonder if the promise to get rid of upfront tuition fees is just that, a complete promise or a fudge? Will there be a graduate tax to fund it instead? In issuance for most That’s what we have now 9% of everything over £25k pa.
I'm going to be paying less than I've would if I had a lower salary, because of interest. That's not how a "graduate contribution system" works, it's how a loan works
The interest is irrelevant if you never pay it all back, which is the situation for most.
You are simply stating lies as facts to support your Worldview. Saying that 'no deal is not viable' and that 'there are no viable alternatives' is simply a lie. There are viable alternatives. How do I know this? Because virtually every other country in the World uses them. You can argue that these alternatives are sub-optimal in your opinion, but they clearly exist and clearly could be used. The idea of a nation settings its own trade policy, managing its own borders and customs checks and setting its own standards is not in the slightest bit unusual.
May cannot take the route you state without being toppled. She is stupid and weak and listening to advice from civil servants who have no other objective than to undermine Brexit. She now has no way out of the trap she has made for herself. She is finished.
Unfortunately, it is now true that Hard Brexit will be damaging to the economy in the short term because we have not prepared for it and probably now cannot do so without there being damage, but it will happen anyway. That is all the Remainers will have achieved.
Hard Brexit may happen. It will be followed by moves to rejoin the EU because it will look like disaster. I doubt Leavers want that. Leavers want people to think, that wasn't so bad, it's very similar to what we had before.
The EU is the only game in town in Europe. If we want to work with other European nations we have to go through the EU and they are not going to change the way they do things. If we want the nice things of the status quo like car factories, aviation industries, export markets that keep hill farmers I business etc etc, we have no choice but a close relationship with the EU on its terms. That's exactly what we will choose. Sorry.
Except that, no matter how much you wish it to be true, the PM has no chance of being able to sign up to remaining in all but name without being replaced by her own side. The PCP wouldn’t hesitate to replace her with someone like Michael Gove if they thought it would result in a better (looser) deal with the EU.
There's a possibility of Mrs May being toppled, followed by a period where there is an absence of a deal with the EU and the rest of the world. What it won't do is lead the EU to agree a looser deal. They have no interest in that. Gove etc will eventually have to agree with the EU on their terms and may be toppled themselves.
I expect Mrs May to sign and her party simultaneously to grumble and to rationalise it.
And we are supposed to believe this has been designed, built and commissioned all since the Brexit vote huh?
Colour me skeptical...
"In March 2016, the firm ordered two RoRo vessels from Croatian shipbuilder Uljanik, with an option for further four. Two additional 5,400 lane meter vessels were ordered from Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), with options for a further four of the same class, in February 2017."
Except that, no matter how much you wish it to be true, the PM has no chance of being able to sign up to remaining in all but name without being replaced by her own side. The PCP wouldn’t hesitate to replace her with someone like Michael Gove if they thought it would result in a better (looser) deal with the EU.
Since returning to the cabinet Gove has:
- Committed to giving continued access to our fishing waters - Ruled out accepting US agricultural standards for imports - Reneged on leaving the CFP in 2019
Do you really think the PCP would choose someone like him to get a better deal than May?
Except that your points 1 and 3 haven’t actually been agreed yet, and point 2 is supported by the vast majority of the public.
The PCP would be happy to roll the dice if it meant the EU would actually have to negotiate to avoid a hard WTO Brexit next March, with no contributions after that date and their needing to build a border across Ireland.
And we are supposed to believe this has been designed, built and commissioned all since the Brexit vote huh?
Colour me skeptical...
"In March 2016, the firm ordered two RoRo vessels from Croatian shipbuilder Uljanik, with an option for further four. Two additional 5,400 lane meter vessels were ordered from Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), with options for a further four of the same class, in February 2017."
So I reckon ordered a few months before Brexit. Then there are the docks works that needed to be done to berth such large ships.
But whether this is 'because of Brexit' or not, it's still not particularly good for the UK, and good for the Irish and Europe.
Why is it not good for the UK?
Irish trucks heading to Europe contribute nothing to the British economy except congestion on the M6 and A14, and wear and tear on our roads.
The drivers aren’t employed here, the trucks aren’t registered here and they don’t buy fuel here, we should be encouraging them to take an alternative route.
And we are supposed to believe this has been designed, built and commissioned all since the Brexit vote huh?
Colour me skeptical...
"In March 2016, the firm ordered two RoRo vessels from Croatian shipbuilder Uljanik, with an option for further four. Two additional 5,400 lane meter vessels were ordered from Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), with options for a further four of the same class, in February 2017."
So I reckon ordered a few months before Brexit. Then there are the docks works that needed to be done to berth such large ships.
But whether this is 'because of Brexit' or not, it's still not particularly good for the UK, and good for the Irish and Europe.
Why is it not good for the UK?
Irish trucks heading to Europe contribute nothing to the British economy except congestion on the M6 and A14, and wear and tear on our roads.
The drivers aren’t employed here, the trucks aren’t registered here and they don’t buy fuel here, we should be encouraging them to take an alternative route.
Those are interesting points thanks. I would be really surprised if they 'contribute nothing' though. Anyone (RCS?) know more?
What the Conservatives were offering to reduce intergenerational unfairness was much less than what Corbyn was offering added to which much of the intergenerational unfairness was caused by Cameron and Osborne.
If May had offered the changes to student debt which have subsequently happened there would have been a Conservative majority in 2017.
That those changes have happened gives credibilty to the idea that voting for Corbyn brings benefits to the young.
Sorry, Mr Richard. I must have missed that. What are the changes in student debt that have happened since the general election?
It’s just a graduate contribution system with an end point. I wonder if the promise to get rid of upfront tuition fees is just that, a complete promise or a fudge? Will there be a graduate tax to fund it instead? In issuance for most That’s what we have now 9% of everything over £25k pa.
I'm going to be paying less than I've would if I had a lower salary, because of interest. That's not how a "graduate contribution system" works, it's how a loan works
The interest is irrelevant if you never pay it all back, which is the situation for most.
The interest on un-repayable student debts matters for two reasons.
First, to help the Conservative Party which cynically raised the rate so the aggregate debt will rise from one squillion to 10 squillion pounds by the next election. It won't be repaid but CCHQ will be able to run posters about the £10 squillion black hole in Labour's manifesto.
Second, which helps Labour, is that for the individual graduate voter stacking shelves in Tesco, a £50,000 nominal debt is now a £70,000 nominal debt which, despite not having to be repaid, still acts as a driver towards the red box in the polling station.
Presumably the voters dying off will mostly be older voters so mostly Tories, also the younger voters coming through will be mostly Labour, as things stand anyway.
I've been hearing this argument for 40 years...of which only 14 have been under a Labour government. Shouldn't the Tories all be dead by now?
As Ben Goldacre would observe "I think you'll find its a bit more complicated than that...."
I wasn't referring to the last 40 years though or declaring that demographics equals inevitable victory.
Generally over time the two main parties shift to meet the public so if something did die out in the population it would also die out within the parties as well, it is only ever ideas (an example might be stopping gay marriage) that are doomed, parties can adapt simply by moving away from them. I've never been on board with the idea the Conservative party is doomed over time.
My post was specifically referring to things as they stand now with the Conservatives in government and Labour in opposition. With the older vote going Tory and the younger vote going Labour at the moment. Which just for the sake of the next election and with all other things being equal means the Tories would need to non Tory voters over to stay still with older voters leaving the voting pool and being replaced by younger voters.
The same effect happens with a lower turnout by young voters for Labour.
And its likely to be much harder for Labour to offer to write off student debt at the next election - there will be too much of it for it to be a believable promise.
Of course if you change the turnout of any voting group it would affect the result but I would imagine younger Labour voters coming out in greater numbers rather than smaller numbers.
Unless the amounts of people going to university have changed dramatically then the same manifesto pledge would cost a similar amount.
Labour picked up many votes from people who thought that ALL student debt would be written off not just future student debt.
What the Conservatives were offering to reduce intergenerational unfairness was much less than what Corbyn was offering added to which much of the intergenerational unfairness was caused by Cameron and Osborne.
If May had offered the changes to student debt which have subsequently happened there would have been a Conservative majority in 2017.
That those changes have happened gives credibilty to the idea that voting for Corbyn brings benefits to the young.
Sorry, Mr Richard. I must have missed that. What are the changes in student debt that have happened since the general election?
' Former students will be able to earn more before they have to start paying back their tuition fee loans.
English and Welsh students who took out loans from September 2012 onwards - when fees in England rose to up to £9,000 a year - will now start to pay back when they earn £25,000 a year instead of £21,000.
The government says the move could save graduates up to £360 a year.
The National Union of Students said the change was "welcome relief" for many.
The Department for Education says some 600,000 graduates will benefit over the next financial year alone.
Previously, the repayment threshold for post-September 2012 loans had been frozen at £21,000 until 2020-21, but last autumn Prime Minister Theresa May announced a rise in the threshold from this new financial year.
The change will also lower the repayments of those earning over £25,000, as the percentage of salary paid back will be on a smaller amount. '
What the Conservatives were offering to reduce intergenerational unfairness was much less than what Corbyn was offering added to which much of the intergenerational unfairness was caused by Cameron and Osborne.
If May had offered the changes to student debt which have subsequently happened there would have been a Conservative majority in 2017.
That those changes have happened gives credibilty to the idea that voting for Corbyn brings benefits to the young.
Sorry, Mr Richard. I must have missed that. What are the changes in student debt that have happened since the general election?
It’s just a graduate contribution system with an end point. I wonder if the promise to get rid of upfront tuition fees is just that, a complete promise or a fudge? Will there be a graduate tax to fund it instead? In issuance for most That’s what we have now 9% of everything over £25k pa.
Many thanks for the reply, Mr Notme. It sound from what you say as though it is a matter of promises - and we all know just how binding they are when made by a Tory - plus a defined end point (?) - which is something we had already, thanks to the Lib Dems when they were part of the Coalition Government.
So, effectively, we are talking abut smoke and mirrors, which the Conservatives are claiming to be a major change, and Corbyn and his Militant Tendency Labour Party are claiming as a major victory in changing government policy.
And somebody above thinks that this would have brought about a Tory majority in 2017.... Not so sure about that myself.
You are simply stating lies as facts to support your Worldview. Saying that 'no deal is not viable' and that 'there are no viable alternatives' is simply a lie. There are viable alternatives. How do I know this? Because virtually every other country in the World uses them. You can argue that these alternatives are sub-optimal in your opinion, but they clearly exist and clearly could be used. The idea of a nation settings its own trade policy, managing its own borders and customs checks and setting its own standards is not in the slightest bit unusual.
May cannot take the route you state without being toppled. She is stupid and weak and listening to advice from civil servants who have no other objective than to undermine Brexit. She now has no way out of the trap she has made for herself. She is finished.
Unfortunately, it is now true that Hard Brexit will be damaging to the economy in the short term because we have not prepared for it and probably now cannot do so without there being damage, but it will happen anyway. That is all the Remainers will have achieved.
Hard Brexit may happen. It will be followed by moves to rejoin the EU because it will look like disaster. I doubt Leavers want that. Leavers want people to think, that wasn't so bad, it's very similar to what we had before.
The EU is the only game in town in Europe. If we want to work with other European nations we have to go through the EU and they are not going to change the way they do things. If we want the nice things of the status quo like car factories, aviation industries, export markets that keep hill farmers I business etc etc, we have no choice but a close relationship with the EU on its terms. That's exactly what we will choose. Sorry.
Except that, no matter how much you wish it to be true, the PM has no chance of being able to sign up to remaining in all but name without being replaced by her own side. The PCP wouldn’t hesitate to replace her with someone like Michael Gove if they thought it would result in a better (looser) deal with the EU.
There's a possibility of Mrs May being toppled, followed by a period where there is an absence of a deal with the EU and the rest of the world. What it won't do is lead the EU to agree a looser deal. They have no interest in that. Gove etc will eventually have to agree with the EU on their terms and may be toppled themselves.
I expect Mrs May to sign and her party simultaneously to grumble and to rationalise it.
Furthermore it's Gove etc's interest to get May to do the inevitable compromise rather than sully themselves.
And we are supposed to believe this has been designed, built and commissioned all since the Brexit vote huh?
Colour me skeptical...
"In March 2016, the firm ordered two RoRo vessels from Croatian shipbuilder Uljanik, with an option for further four. Two additional 5,400 lane meter vessels were ordered from Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), with options for a further four of the same class, in February 2017."
So I reckon ordered a few months before Brexit. Then there are the docks works that needed to be done to berth such large ships.
But whether this is 'because of Brexit' or not, it's still not particularly good for the UK, and good for the Irish and Europe.
Why is it not good for the UK?
Irish trucks heading to Europe contribute nothing to the British economy except congestion on the M6 and A14, and wear and tear on our roads.
The drivers aren’t employed here, the trucks aren’t registered here and they don’t buy fuel here, we should be encouraging them to take an alternative route.
Those are interesting points thanks. I would be really surprised if they 'contribute nothing' though. Anyone (RCS?) know more?
From an economic point of view, they’re going to provide work for our ports in processing them and the ship operators if UK based. Against that they’re also contributing pollution to British skies.
It would be interesting to know how many lorries actually make this trip, and what proportion of trade they account for at the ports. It’s probaly quite a lot at Holyhead and not so much at Felixstowe and Dover.
Labour's percentage lead across London in the general election of 2017, was much bigger than its percentage lead in the local elections of 2014
I meant just in Barnet, but admittedly wasn't at all clear. Tories hold all 3 seats at Westminster but the Council has been basically split or tiny Tory majority. In 2014 Labour made gains to practically split the Council evenly but didn't get nearly as close a year later to taking the constituencies. If the pattern holds (a big if, I accept) then the 2017 results bode well for them.
According to the wikipedia the Barnet votes were:
2014 Con 38.6% Lab 36.4%
2017 Con 47.1% Lab 45.2%
So there's been a slight swing to Labour but what happens this year is still uncertain and depends on many factors.
It might be important to know how Barnet council itself is viewed by local voters.
And we are supposed to believe this has been designed, built and commissioned all since the Brexit vote huh?
Colour me skeptical...
"In March 2016, the firm ordered two RoRo vessels from Croatian shipbuilder Uljanik, with an option for further four. Two additional 5,400 lane meter vessels were ordered from Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), with options for a further four of the same class, in February 2017."
So I reckon ordered a few months before Brexit. Then there are the docks works that needed to be done to berth such large ships.
But whether this is 'because of Brexit' or not, it's still not particularly good for the UK, and good for the Irish and Europe.
Why is it not good for the UK?
Irish trucks heading to Europe contribute nothing to the British economy except congestion on the M6 and A14, and wear and tear on our roads.
The drivers aren’t employed here, the trucks aren’t registered here and they don’t buy fuel here, we should be encouraging them to take an alternative route.
Those are interesting points thanks. I would be really surprised if they 'contribute nothing' though. Anyone (RCS?) know more?
I would assume they have to pay to use the ferries on the Irish Sea and then either the ferry or the tunnel to Europe. That must be a substantial.income for the ferry and tunnel companies and they would then pay tax on that to the exchequer.
And we are supposed to believe this has been designed, built and commissioned all since the Brexit vote huh?
Colour me skeptical...
"In March 2016, the firm ordered two RoRo vessels from Croatian shipbuilder Uljanik, with an option for further four. Two additional 5,400 lane meter vessels were ordered from Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), with options for a further four of the same class, in February 2017."
So I reckon ordered a few months before Brexit. Then there are the docks works that needed to be done to berth such large ships.
But whether this is 'because of Brexit' or not, it's still not particularly good for the UK, and good for the Irish and Europe.
Why is it not good for the UK?
Irish trucks heading to Europe contribute nothing to the British economy except congestion on the M6 and A14, and wear and tear on our roads.
The drivers aren’t employed here, the trucks aren’t registered here and they don’t buy fuel here, we should be encouraging them to take an alternative route.
Those are interesting points thanks. I would be really surprised if they 'contribute nothing' though. Anyone (RCS?) know more?
From an economic point of view, they’re going to provide work for our ports in processing them and the ship operators if UK based. Against that they’re also contributing pollution to British skies.
It would be interesting to know how many lorries actually make this trip, and what proportion of trade they account for at the ports. It’s probaly quite a lot at Holyhead and not so much at Felixstowe and Dover.
There are very many Irish plated HGV's daily on the A55 in Colwyn Bay
What the Conservatives were offering to reduce intergenerational unfairness was much less than what Corbyn was offering added to which much of the intergenerational unfairness was caused by Cameron and Osborne.
If May had offered the changes to student debt which have subsequently happened there would have been a Conservative majority in 2017.
That those changes have happened gives credibilty to the idea that voting for Corbyn brings benefits to the young.
Sorry, Mr Richard. I must have missed that. What are the changes in student debt that have happened since the general election?
It’s just a graduate contribution system with an end point. I wonder if the promise to get rid of upfront tuition fees is just that, a complete promise or a fudge? Will there be a graduate tax to fund it instead? In issuance for most That’s what we have now 9% of everything over £25k pa.
Many thanks for the reply, Mr Notme. It sound from what you say as though it is a matter of promises - and we all know just how binding they are when made by a Tory - plus a defined end point (?) - which is something we had already, thanks to the Lib Dems when they were part of the Coalition Government.
So, effectively, we are talking abut smoke and mirrors, which the Conservatives are claiming to be a major change, and Corbyn and his Militant Tendency Labour Party are claiming as a major victory in changing government policy.
And somebody above thinks that this would have brought about a Tory majority in 2017.... Not so sure about that myself.
I would suggest a LibDem is on very thin ice when commenting on the validity of policies made about student debt.
Britain’s hopes of building a deep security partnership with the EU have been cast into fresh doubt after Brussels issued a warning to EU member states that the British government cannot be trusted to handle sensitive crime data, the Telegraph can reveal.
Britain’s hopes of building a deep security partnership with the EU have been cast into fresh doubt after Brussels issued a warning to EU member states that the British government cannot be trusted to handle sensitive crime data, the Telegraph can reveal.
Labour to win Barnet is up from 1/4 when Ladbrokes first opened the market to 4/6 now. I think this is due to some polls showing good Tory leads nationally and concerns about the antisemitism issue hurting Labour in Barnet. The latter shouldn't for two reasons:
1. Most Jews weren't voting Labour anyway. Polls suggest 31% of Jews voted Labour in 2010, only 14% in 2015. One poll of Jews under Corbyn put support at only 7%, but that isn't much of a loss even in Barnet. 2. The most Jewish wards in Barnet aren't marginal anyway. Barnet is 15% Jewish overall. Wards with over 30% are Edgware, Garden Suburb, Golders Green, Hendon, and Church End - all safe Tory seats anyway. The others with above 15% are Childs Hill, Hale, Mill Hill, and Totteridge. The first two are marginal, but the second two are also safe. That's perhaps two wards in the Borough where the Jewish vote could have any impact, and 15-20% (assuming Labour did better in 2014 than 2015) of 15-25% (of people who are Jews) isn't a massive swing. https://www.barnet.gov.uk/dam/jcr:2504aa95-a0c6-4992-91a9-c5ab44dec5a8/Barnet's_JSNA_2015_-_2020.24-53.pdf
By contrast: 1. In the 2017 snap election Labour made big strides in all 3 constituencies in the Borough; 2. In 2014 the Greens took 10% of the Borough vote, events since then suggest Labour may take chunks out of that. This compares to about 3% of the voters who are Jewish and voted Labour.
The Green and general improvement in Labour (at least in London) since 2014 are more significant than the Jewish vote generally and in marginal wards. Labour aren't nailed on, but they aren't likely to be undermined by an antisemitism backlash much.
I'm on Labour to win. I'm not 100% certain, but definitely more than 60%.
Bear in mind that there was no swing at all to Labour in Barnet, between 2014 and 2017. Across London as whole, the Conservative vote share rose by 7% between those three years, whereas Labour's vote share rose by 18%. In Barnet, each party saw its share rise by 9%. The Conservatives won 32 seats to 30 for Labour and 1 Lib Dem, while in 2017, the Conservatives led in 11 wards to 10 for Labour, notwithstanding that the Green vote was heavily squeezed.
I remain of the view that it's a coin toss.
Good to see this kind of analysis and back and forth. I'm avoiding betting on this one because local elections have too many unknowns.
Britain’s hopes of building a deep security partnership with the EU have been cast into fresh doubt after Brussels issued a warning to EU member states that the British government cannot be trusted to handle sensitive crime data, the Telegraph can reveal.
No member state believes this rubbish, only the EU institutions
Quite. Didn’t British security forces play a major part in apprehending those responsible for one of the terrorist incidents in Europe recently? Paris theatre shooting?
We’re definitely now back to where we were six months ago, with the EU spinning endless negative stories to our press; hopefully the adults in the room are continuing the negotiations in the good faith we are all expecting.
Comments
And its likely to be much harder for Labour to offer to write off student debt at the next election - there will be too much of it for it to be a believable promise.
The question is whether the rising cohort largely shut out of property ownership will switch to the same extent.
Apart from the late 90s early 00s (when someone pinched their clothes) the Tories understand the importance of winning. Not for them the 'purity of opposition'...At some point they will lose sight of the importance of power again, then come back to their senses.
In the 40 years I've had the vote only 14 of them have been under Labour governments.
Perhaps that’s how we should think about staying in a customs union with the EU. The poll from earlier this week showed that the bar to rejoining the EU is much higher than remaining. We should hold our noses to get to 11PM on 29th March 2019; after that, we have all the time in the world.
I prefer Matt myself....
What has happened since 2011 might be another matter.
There’s no sentiment in the country against it; quite the contrary since Remainerism - which remains a coherent movement - is in favour of it.
Therefore, we can expect May to cave in to the inevitable.
That a Brexit inside the (a) customs union, but outside the single market, is nobody’s preferred choice is neither here nor there.
The immediate priority is the A50 withdrawal agreement backstop. As currently drafted NI will have a different regime from the UK, which Mrs May says no British PM would agree to. She will either have to agree.and get the DUP to go along, the EU will drop this section of the agreement (unlikely) or she puts SM+CU+CAP as the backstop for all UK. She has a couple of months to decide.
https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/987393245188689920
It's a rather naked political ploy by the ultra-Remainers to make Brexit a lame duck, in the hope that they can then play the long-game.
the core problem is price for housing. The rampant house price inflation during the Blair government can’t be ignored in all of this. It was great if you joined the house owning party in 2001. In the space of ten years a house bought for £50k was worth £100k and a £20k mortage.
What seems to separate most communities in life with their chances of prosperity isn’t between those who have millions and nothing it’s between those who have something and nothing. The first £50k to £100k in life is the hardest to achieve. Once you’ve got it other things fall in place.
We all got that thanks to Blair, just like many of us got it thanks to Maggie with right to buy. I would have great difficulty acquiring the kind of home I have now if I hadn’t accrued the £100k of equity necessary to get the mortgage on it following house price inflation.
House price inflation is not zero sum. Yes you have to pay more for your next house that you might have had to but you can choose different areas of the country etc. But if you haven’t experienced that inflation and got the equity then it’s pretty tough.
Ps. Council houses are not the solution except in maybe very specific circumstances....
I remain of the view that it's a coin toss.
Only a few retired sergeant-majors in Broadstairs give a damn, and they are too deaf and infirm to cause trouble.
As it happens, I’m not convinced by the customs union myself - but as we seem to have decided to pursue an entire worldview sans logic and sans fact, there’s not much to be done about it.
This:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/987680043618000896
https://twitter.com/TTindrum/status/987674477973655552
I don’t think we can really blame Europhiles for playing a long game, considering those who kept the flame of Euroscepticism burning for the 41 years from 1975 to 2016. Tactical retreats in support of strategic goals are perfectly reasonable.
Most people who voted for Brexit would be happy with an end to free movement and significantly reduced contributions to Brussels. Few will die in a ditch for the right to set our own tariffs. The EU has the lowest of any major trade bloc in any case.
Eurosceptism itself started from a much higher base. The referendum would never have been won on the back of a few retired sergeant-majors.
Unless the amounts of people going to university have changed dramatically then the same manifesto pledge would cost a similar amount.
Or when his education minister comes back and says, you know what, these academies, I know some of them haven’t been very good but overall the kids, usually poorer ones seem to be getting much better results. Are you sure you want to put them all back in the hands of the local council?
- A committed minority who were never reconciled to any kind of political integration at all (primarily with Germany).
- A complacent elite who were used to Britain being able to get its own way.
- A disaffected electorate who wanted to give the political class a kicking.
Since the vote the first group have been chastened, the second group have been humbled, and the third group have had their catharsis.
The Brexit 'moment' has expired and can never be repeated.
BBC Politics@BBCPolitics
Carwyn Jones to quit as first minister
Bitter fallout from the death of Carl Sergeant continues, as Carwyn Jones calls it a day.
"Carwyn Jones has announced that he will stand down as Wales' first minister in the autumn.
The AM for Bridgend made the announcement at Welsh Labour party conference in Llandudno which he said would be his last as leader.
Referring to the death of Carl Sargeant, Mr Jones said he had been through the "darkest of times".
Mr Sargeant was found dead in November, days after Mr Jones sacked him from his cabinet job.
Mr Jones said his exit would give his family, his party and the country a "fresh start"."
https://twitter.com/campaignforleo/status/987311031935528960
So I'd rather leave the customs union and stay in the single market (as I'm not at all fussed about freedom of movement)
It does look as though Theresa is reaching the crunch one way or another though.
May cannot take the route you state without being toppled. She is stupid and weak and listening to advice from civil servants who have no other objective than to undermine Brexit. She now has no way out of the trap she has made for herself. She is finished.
Unfortunately, it is now true that Hard Brexit will be damaging to the economy in the short term because we have not prepared for it and probably now cannot do so without there being damage, but it will happen anyway. That is all the Remainers will have achieved.
Colour me skeptical...
Indeed, Mr. Archer.
Mr. 43, the electorate didn't vote for us to be a client state. That is the will of certain members of the political class. It's an act of sabotage against one's own nation to support the opposite side of the table (and, from some, to collude with them) in a negotiation.
It is what one might expect from the likes of Corbyn, given his historical view of Northern Ireland and more recent pronouncements on Russia.
The EU is the only game in town in Europe. If we want to work with other European nations we have to go through the EU and they are not going to change the way they do things. If we want the nice things of the status quo like car factories, aviation industries, export markets that keep hill farmers I business etc etc, we have no choice but a close relationship with the EU on its terms. That's exactly what we will choose. Sorry.
In a tweak to its terms and conditions, Facebook is shifting the responsibility for all users outside the US, Canada and the EU from its international HQ in Ireland to its main offices in California. It means that those users will now be on a site governed by US law rather than Irish law.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/apr/19/facebook-moves-15bn-users-out-of-reach-of-new-european-privacy-law
- Committed to giving continued access to our fishing waters
- Ruled out accepting US agricultural standards for imports
- Reneged on leaving the CFP in 2019
Do you really think the PCP would choose someone like him to get a better deal than May?
The Stars Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TSG; TSX: TSGI) (“The Stars Group” or “the Company”) announced today that it has agreed to acquire Sky Betting & Gaming (“SBG”) from CVC Capital Partners (“CVC”) and Sky plc (LSE: SKY) (“Sky”) in a cash and stock transaction valued at $4.7 billion. This combination will result in the world’s largest publicly listed online gaming company.
http://www.starsgroup.com/press-center/the-stars-group-news/the-stars-group-to-acquire-sky-betting-and-gaming-for-4-7-billion-
I expect Mrs May to sign and her party simultaneously to grumble and to rationalise it.
https://worldmaritimenews.com/archives/233442/cldn-takes-delivery-of-its-first-next-generation-roro/
So I reckon ordered a few months before Brexit. Then there are the docks works that needed to be done to berth such large ships.
But whether this is 'because of Brexit' or not, it's still not particularly good for the UK, and good for the Irish and Europe.
The PCP would be happy to roll the dice if it meant the EU would actually have to negotiate to avoid a hard WTO Brexit next March, with no contributions after that date and their needing to build a border across Ireland.
Irish trucks heading to Europe contribute nothing to the British economy except congestion on the M6 and A14, and wear and tear on our roads.
The drivers aren’t employed here, the trucks aren’t registered here and they don’t buy fuel here, we should be encouraging them to take an alternative route.
First, to help the Conservative Party which cynically raised the rate so the aggregate debt will rise from one squillion to 10 squillion pounds by the next election. It won't be repaid but CCHQ will be able to run posters about the £10 squillion black hole in Labour's manifesto.
Second, which helps Labour, is that for the individual graduate voter stacking shelves in Tesco, a £50,000 nominal debt is now a £70,000 nominal debt which, despite not having to be repaid, still acts as a driver towards the red box in the polling station.
English and Welsh students who took out loans from September 2012 onwards - when fees in England rose to up to £9,000 a year - will now start to pay back when they earn £25,000 a year instead of £21,000.
The government says the move could save graduates up to £360 a year.
The National Union of Students said the change was "welcome relief" for many.
The Department for Education says some 600,000 graduates will benefit over the next financial year alone.
Previously, the repayment threshold for post-September 2012 loans had been frozen at £21,000 until 2020-21, but last autumn Prime Minister Theresa May announced a rise in the threshold from this new financial year.
The change will also lower the repayments of those earning over £25,000, as the percentage of salary paid back will be on a smaller amount. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-43629399
So, effectively, we are talking abut smoke and mirrors, which the Conservatives are claiming to be a major change, and Corbyn and his Militant Tendency Labour Party are claiming as a major victory in changing government policy.
And somebody above thinks that this would have brought about a Tory majority in 2017.... Not so sure about that myself.
It would be interesting to know how many lorries actually make this trip, and what proportion of trade they account for at the ports. It’s probaly quite a lot at Holyhead and not so much at Felixstowe and Dover.
2014
Con 38.6%
Lab 36.4%
2017
Con 47.1%
Lab 45.2%
So there's been a slight swing to Labour but what happens this year is still uncertain and depends on many factors.
It might be important to know how Barnet council itself is viewed by local voters.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/04/21/eu-warns-uk-cannot-trusted-sensitive-data-hopes-fade-future/
I'm avoiding betting on this one because local elections have too many unknowns.
We’re definitely now back to where we were six months ago, with the EU spinning endless negative stories to our press; hopefully the adults in the room are continuing the negotiations in the good faith we are all expecting.