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The beauty of the Commonwealth lies in its pointlessness. Far from being a hindrance, the fact that it doesn’t have a purpose is a feature, not a bug. No-one is being swept along by ‘the Project’ and rarely does anyone expect anything from the two-yearly get-togethers – and that lack of clear agenda, combined with an informal atmosphere with leaders parted from advisors and officials, is what can create the space to nudge international discussions on one topic or another in a positive way – such as the focus today on addressing poor vision among the world’s poor. The meetings are in that sense rather like a working funeral, except without the need for a death.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-43846488
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43844253
The Washington Post says this tactic was previously used during Watergate (and $750,000 damages was paid the day Nixon left office).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democratic-party-files-lawsuit-alleging-russia-the-trump-campaign-and-wikileaks-conspired-to-disrupt-the-2016-campaign/2018/04/20/befe8364-4418-11e8-8569-26fda6b404c7_story.html
That's one heck of a conditional, though: there is much in the way of a deal, and China will have to be fully onboard (which I think they are).
But if he does ... wow.
China withdrawing full economic support is no doubt a large factor, as is the willingness of South Korea to seek a deal. One stumbling block might be the question of denuclearisation which sounds like it just means North Korea gives up its nuclear programme but actually includes withdrawal from the region of much of America's armed forces including the navy, leaving China as the only superpower in the region. (This is because America will not declare or deny which vessels carry nuclear weapons.)
From Kim's point of view, a workable deal combining economic support with regime continuity was presumably the end game -- it is unlikely he ever intended launching an invasion of the continental United States. NK has workable missiles, and a nuclear capability (or has it? Remember it was reported last year that the nuclear test site had collapsed, possibly killing everyone working on the programme.)
Would make a change from Obama's token prize, given he was nominated just days after taking office.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-22450163
It should also be awarded after a few years, once situations have calmed down and the reality of the peace can be seen.
Obama got one without deserving it.
I wonder why?
Trump's successor on the other hand will probably be a dead cert.....
CON: 43% (+3)
LAB: 38% (-2)
LD: 8% (-1)
An intriguing suggestion, Mr. Herdson.
Tennis: yesterday, 3/4 tips failed, although one was just a tie-break away from coming off and would've put me green. So, red, but not quite idiotically red.
Edited extra bit: there's a Ladbrokes special, 3.25 on Ricciardo going to Ferrari next year. Personally, not tempted. Short odds for a potential payout months down the line, and I think Mercedes would be a likelier shift, if he does move.
It is said that on one occasion the radical journalist and MP John Wilkes was sitting next to the then Prince of Wales at dinner, when suddenly and without apparent reason he stood up and proposed a toast - 'To the health of his Majesty King George III!'
Everyone responded, although Prinny rather reluctantly. After they had sat down again he turned to Wilkes and said, 'Tell me, Mr Wilkes, how long have you taken an interest in my dear father's health?'
'Why, since I had the pleasure of Your Royal Highness' acquaintance!' replied Wilkes.
I have a feeling a large number of us - except TSE of course - would have a similar reaction to the thought of Charles as Head of State, or even as regent.
Charles, having given so many views on so many things, is in a lose-lose situation. If he continues shooting his mouth off, he makes his position untenable, if he doesn't his opinions will still be flung at him and it will be assumed he's hiding them because he wants to hold onto the throne.
(Of course, this hasn't applied to Philip...)
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge
So how would a sane deal be worked out? Kim would want the US out of South Korea in exchange for giving up his bomb. Trump would just want Kim to give it up unilaterally. I can't see either of those things happening.
A deal involving no more tests of the bomb or the missiles and a dialling down of anti-US rhetoric in exchange for food aid might be a possibility. Are either of these leaders capable of making any progress or at least not making things worse?
1) If the code is meant to be secret, having been leaked to The Grauniad that bit has failed in truly epic fashion. So we may assume the details have had to be changed.
2) if they haven't, should London Bridge ever suffer structural failure the official who informs Theresa May will have to be bloody careful how they phrase the news.
It's a community of nations that share language, history and, largely, common law and systems of Government. It is united as a loose friendly fraternity, with the British monarch as its figurehead.
It may have a soft focus on education, sport and young people - although I suspect, over time, economic and business links will become more important, as will human rights - but it's long-term purpose is clear: the economic/political centre of gravity of the world is moving to Africa and Asia and it will increasing become the non-Chinese international fulcrum of that.
If we want the world to truly continue to develop in the direction of free, liberal democracies that are friendly to, and trade with, one another, then we must continue to engage, in a leading role, with what is a very valuable asset to the sum of humanity that has us as the common link.
Yes, it's not perfect, and there are embarrassing aspects of it too, but I am proud of the Commonwealth and our role in creating it. We should build on it going forwards.
Philip was the canary down the coal mine, which everyone has accepted, and if she follows the same path then over the next 3 years, by the age of 95, this should have taken place.
I imagine she'd continue to do Christmas broadcasts, she'll still attend religious services, and perhaps the odd armed forces/charitable event/race meeting she chooses to do. The key things she'd need to shed are the red boxes, signing off legislation and the weekly audiences with the PM. I imagine that's a greater burden than any of us imagine.
Leaving aside what instantly pops into my mind when I read "Prince Regent" - Hugh Laurie is the answer, in case you're wondering - I don't know if a Regency Act would be required for that.
Mr. Observer, indeed, though I fear Xi's made a critical mistake, for the long term, with his change to the succession formula. Even if he's a very wily leader and can either abdicate as he pleases or rules until his demise, the aftermath could be a bloodbath. If he's less fortunate, that could see others trying to bring him down.
It would be hard for Labour to find a worse Leader.. Only Gordon Brown comes as close.
Enjoy the ride lads, it's less than half, or quarter, the way through.
As I keep saying, Corbyn or equivalent will be our next PM. The Tories are a busted flush - staid, old, sleazy and broken.
So what do the sides want?
NK:
*) To maintain the regime.
*) To unify with the south.
SK:
*) To maintain their success story
*) To unify with the north.
*) Peace.
China:
*) To prevent a war on their doorstep that would be damaging to their international reputation.
*) To prevent the potential of millions of refugees flowing over the border.
*) US troops out of Korea (perhaps in the short term replaced by a.n.other).
US:
*) A foreign policy success that the sainted Obama never came close to.
*) Reduce the costs of maintaining the DMZ.
*) To prevent China extending its influence in the region to SK, and by keeping bases in SK.
If you look at these, there may be a way forward if all sides are adult about it and put the needs of the NK people ahead of their interests (yeah, right). Reunification should be seen very much as a long-term goal.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Britain_Bill
Standing next to me on a concrete block was a young girl so I asked her what was the queen doing in Manchester?
'She's opening the new tram system' she said.
At that moment the queen and her entourage walked right past us and stepped onto a waiting tram which then drove off.
The young girl was now jumping up and down and screaming and waving wildly.
"I don't suppose you get to see the queen very often?" I said
"It's not that" she said. "My Dad's driving the tram!"
On the other hand, given the choice between Brown returning as PM or Corbyn becoming PM, I'd go for the former without any hesitation.
Corbyn would **** the economy far worse, *and* we've seen how he handles things like anti-Semitism and would approach national security.
However I believe that a retirement Regency is almost a unlikely as an abdication. Her Majesty would see such a regency as an abrogation, not only of her Coronation Oath which she takes as a lifelong duty to the nation, but also and of her 1947 vow.
Other members of the royal family may retire but they are not the monarch and whilst younger royals will ease the strain of some of her duties, a regency based on an effective use by date is simply outwith of the scope of the Queen's nature.
Coronation Oath :
https://www.royal.uk/coronation-oath-2-june-1953
Princess Elizabeth's 21st Birthday Vow 1947 - From 5 min 40 sec :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUlToHE_27U
China's principal strategic aim is to push America out past the "island line" linking Korea to Indonesia via Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. North Korean sabre rattling complicates that goal.
What South Korea thinks is a bit irrelevant to the power players but China has mainly good relations with that country.
Both sides claim to want reunification - the stumbling block has always been they want reunification under *their* system, not that of the other party. Whilst there is no way to change that immediately, the idea would be to work towards it: for instance by increasing co-operative works like the KIR.
Only 72 per cent of present Labour voters say that Mr Corbyn would make the best prime minister, with 27 per cent not sure, while 89 per cent of Tories choose Mrs May. In a sign that Mr Corbyn’s grip on Labour may be weakening, only 58 per cent of people who voted Labour in the general election last year said that they would choose him as the next prime minister.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2d38a936-44e1-11e8-99ea-a5dd07dd144b
Historically both Koreas have always sought reunification, but increasing prosperity and social change in South Korea has rendered that a bit less of a national consensus.
Having said that, this republican is full of admiration for our present queen. She is so bloody dogged, so relentless in doing her job. She's so bloody professional. Presumably she has an ego, but - in contrast to every single other person in British public life - she shows absolutely no trace of it: who she is has always come second to her role. My heart rather aches for her, in fact; it's not that her job is physically demanding - though any job we ask a 90-year old woman to do is physically demanding - but that she simply does not feel she can stop doing it until she drops. Whatever one may think of the monarchy, you cannot help but admire her personal dedication to the role and to her country. We will miss her when she's gone, both institutionally and personally.
Keep a look out for results such as 2 Lab + 1 Green or 2 Lab + 1 LD in 'safe' Labour wards.
Do you not realise the strength of an argument is enhanced with the lack of abuse
"Roger, the last thing the Tories want right before local elections is for people up and down the country to be talking about just how badly cuts have hit their local communities. So we're going to make sure that's exactly what happens......"
Introducing the one and only.......CUTS CALCULATOR!!!!
I'm a real sucker for catchy one liners. That's got to be worth a vote
Her position is now that of a PM who is going to have to undergo a GE in the next 10 years or so, on her demise, but has the option of going to the country early to crush the anti-Charles saboteurs, by abdicating. I am sure she has advisers at least as astute as Timothy and Hill to do her game planning for her.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/04/the-risks-to-mays-position-if-she-backs-off-leaving-off-the-customs-union.html
What would that achieve? I think she’d get a vote of confidence from more than 200 MPs. The only options left would be to effectively no-confidence their own government, or secede to form a new party. Neither sound like a good idea to me.
Catchy one-liners and election slogans are just empty rhetoric (like Corbyn's claim to be tough on anti-Semitism).
Not that he's entirely opposed to cuts, of course. He'd cut defence, he'd cut national security, and he'd cut the ability of the UK to set its own foreign policy by giving the Russians a veto.
Incidentally I hadn't realised that ex-pats were excluded from the referendum. That doesn't sound very democratic.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/expat-can-sue-to-overturn-brexit-referendum-x7kbp5krf
"Introducing the one and only.......CUTS CALCULATOR!!!!"
My local council e-mailed one to everyone and ran a campaign in the local paper on exactly that a couple of years ago, blaming central government for the budget cuts. The calculator allowed you to set a new budget by choosing which of the cuddly things to cut.
Strangely enough, the CE's wages weren't one of the options. In fact, the options were strictly limited to basic services, and didn't include any of the fripperies we've become used to, such as this cuts calculator and the glossy magazines delivered from the council which I usually bin straight away.
It is not legitimate when the electorate vote to leave the EU for politicians to try and force us to remain subject to the EU when it comes to trade.
The democratic mandate from the referendum starts and stops there.
Corbyn is the busted flush in UK politics.
It was a similar story when Edward VII succeeded Victoria
Spend half an hour on Conservative Home or read some of the responses to Alistair Meeks great posts and you will soon be disabused of that notion.
The expansive communique is pure boilerplate covering all the main platitudes: democratic values, approval of free trade, concern for the environment, promotion of youth and diversity. None of this needs discussion. It just gets regurgitated and approved. Serious meetings deliver nitty gritty commitments on regulation, monitoring and especially money.
The meeting does allow informal meetings between leaders of some relatively important countries who don't get together that often, including India, Australia, Canada and the UK itself. It also allows third world countries who normally struggle to be heard to get an audience with a number of useful players