The House of Lords defeat illustrates a consequence of the hung Parliament. The Government is going to struggle to invoke the Salisbury convention because the Government did not win a majority. So the Lords may take some persuading that they should back down, even if the Government wins again in the House of Commons.
Meanwhile, some MPs may well feel emboldened by the Lords' intervention.
Finally, I saw some ERG MP's suggestion that the votes in the Commons should be treated as votes of confidence. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, that doesn't work.
May I be the first to say that we leave The Apocalypse alone on this thread. All that contorting and twisting in the wind is likely to put his back out.
His? EDIT: Doh! Beaten to it!!
Interesting that he/she assumes I’m a man. Why?
Don’t worry. That happened to me too. i think it’s because most people on here are men.
There may be some of course who think that women don’t like to bother their pretty little heads with all this hard political stuff.........
One PB’er, long departed, even said when he found that I was a woman that I couldn’t be because I argued like a man. I was very tempted to reply that, no, I didn’t argue like a man. I was much better than that.
It might, it is a very important issue, and as I've said before if there are MPs who think it will be disastrous (not merely sub optimal) to go down the route we are, they absolutely should do something even if they pay a political price for it like a Corbyn government.
That;s why I said earlier the real question is how far are all the Lords willing to go on this. We won't really know until the Commons send it back, and I cannot see how the Commons won't want to test that out by sending it back unamended, rather than given in first.
We're not there yet, because this particular motion only requires the government to produce a statement to parliament. Of course, it might be that more proscriptive amendments will be passed by the Lords later.
It might, it is a very important issue, and as I've said before if there are MPs who think it will be disastrous (not merely sub optimal) to go down the route we are, they absolutely should do something even if they pay a political price for it like a Corbyn government.
That;s why I said earlier the real question is how far are all the Lords willing to go on this. We won't really know until the Commons send it back, and I cannot see how the Commons won't want to test that out by sending it back unamended, rather than given in first.
We're not there yet, because this particular motion only requires the government to produce a statement to parliament. Of course, it might be that more proscriptive amendments will be passed by the Lords later.
Seems probable. What will beinteresting is how close some later more proscriptive ones are - and if the government has a number it thinks they can send it back unamended and win, assuming some of those who defeat them won't do it again, won't take it all the way.
Every living former cabinet secretary voted against the government on the customs union this afternoon (Lords Armstrong, Butler, Wilson, Turnbull and O'Donnell)
Lord Kerr, who proposed the amendment, is a former chief civil servant at the Foreign Office. He was joined in voting against the government by his two successors, Lord Jay and Lord Ricketts
This was precisely why Gove and Cummings were right that a purge of the civil service was required in order to implement Brexit in a meaningful way.
They failed, so I expect a mutilated or cancelled Brexit.
Excellent news about Jeremy Hunt.........and no prizes for guessing where his property company traces back to. I'm sure the parliamentary authorities will pick up on that!
Every living former cabinet secretary voted against the government on the customs union this afternoon (Lords Armstrong, Butler, Wilson, Turnbull and O'Donnell)
Lord Kerr, who proposed the amendment, is a former chief civil servant at the Foreign Office. He was joined in voting against the government by his two successors, Lord Jay and Lord Ricketts
This was precisely why Gove and Cummings were right that a purge of the civil service was required in order to implement Brexit in a meaningful way.
They failed, so I expect a mutilated or cancelled Brexit.
Ah, the “stabbed in the back” argument.
And we would have got away with it too, if it wasn’t for those pesky experts. Too be honest, no one has a Scooby what the point of Brexit is supposed to be.
They want the cost to be nothing, or negative. Not a surprise.
Given those numbers represent an abuse of highly simplistic and dumb forecasting to 2033/34, that's not surprising.
Of course, it's also deliberate; it's an only slightly tongue-in-cheek attempt to play the £350m a week bus game in reverse.
Turnabout is fair play
Oh, they can say what they like. And, of course, we are free to challenge it.
Personally, I'm confident that the public has stopped taking such "forecasts" seriously. They are choke full of simplistic assumptions, and those made in 2016 for 2030 were shown to be badly wrong by 2017, so I'm not worried about agenda-driven ones made now for 2033/34.
Every living former cabinet secretary voted against the government on the customs union this afternoon (Lords Armstrong, Butler, Wilson, Turnbull and O'Donnell)
Lord Kerr, who proposed the amendment, is a former chief civil servant at the Foreign Office. He was joined in voting against the government by his two successors, Lord Jay and Lord Ricketts
This was precisely why Gove and Cummings were right that a purge of the civil service was required in order to implement Brexit in a meaningful way.
They failed, so I expect a mutilated or cancelled Brexit.
The institutional inertia in the civil service is huge.
It doesn't just apply to Brexit. It applies to any meaningful or radical reform of any Government department.
Every living former cabinet secretary voted against the government on the customs union this afternoon (Lords Armstrong, Butler, Wilson, Turnbull and O'Donnell)
Lord Kerr, who proposed the amendment, is a former chief civil servant at the Foreign Office. He was joined in voting against the government by his two successors, Lord Jay and Lord Ricketts
This was precisely why Gove and Cummings were right that a purge of the civil service was required in order to implement Brexit in a meaningful way.
They failed, so I expect a mutilated or cancelled Brexit.
Ah, the “stabbed in the back” argument.
And we would have got away with it too, if it wasn’t for those pesky experts. Too be honest, no one has a Scooby what the point of Brexit is supposed to be.
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Yes, people are realising that Brexit is utterly pointless - an empty vision based on a false prospectus of racist dog whistling and phantom public spending.
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Because people arent usually evidence based. Much of what makes a leaver or remainer is gut feeling. Considering how relentless Project Fear was it's amazing we voted to leave at all. I voted to leave. Did I have a wobble when the currency crashed? Hell yeah. But it became more and more evident that Total Apocalypse was just not going to happen. Things kind of went on as they were.
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Mr. Barnesian, pathos is the way of leading the weak of will and mind, tugging on heartstrings rather than applying reason and logic.
Dr. Foxy, Morris Dancer has no diversity training. Morris Dancer needs no diversity training.
[+5 fantasy points to anyone who gets the reference, from which almost all the words have been changed].
Aristotle's Rhetoric - logos, pathos and ethos - should be read and understood by all political leaflet writers.
Pathos works - "imagine it was your own mother who ...." Logos gives spurious legitimacy but is boring and unconvincing except to the already convinced. Ethos is the last resort. "Experts say ..." "The Government says ..." "Decent people ..."
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Your decision was about which way to vote in 2016. What do you think in 2018 about leaving the single market and customs union in the context of the Irish border?
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Because people arent usually evidence based. Much of what makes a leaver or remainer is gut feeling. Considering how relentless Project Fear was it's amazing we voted to leave at all. I voted to leave. Did I have a wobble when the currency crashed? Hell yeah. But it became more and more evident that Total Apocalypse was just not going to happen. Things kind of went on as they were.
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Mr. Barnesian, pathos is the way of leading the weak of will and mind, tugging on heartstrings rather than applying reason and logic.
Dr. Foxy, Morris Dancer has no diversity training. Morris Dancer needs no diversity training.
[+5 fantasy points to anyone who gets the reference, from which almost all the words have been changed].
Aristotle's Rhetoric - logos, pathos and ethos - should be read and understood by all political leaflet writers.
Pathos works - "imagine it was your own mother who ...." Logos gives spurious legitimacy but is boring and unconvincing except to the already convinced. Ethos is the last resort. "Experts say ..." "The Government says ..." "Decent people ..."
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Because people arent usually evidence based. Much of what makes a leaver or remainer is gut feeling. Considering how relentless Project Fear was it's amazing we voted to leave at all. I voted to leave. Did I have a wobble when the currency crashed? Hell yeah. But it became more and more evident that Total Apocalypse was just not going to happen. Things kind of went on as they were.
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Good for you , what has convinced you ? As BIno does not happen until next year.
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Because people arent usually evidence based. Much of what makes a leaver or remainer is gut feeling. Considering how relentless Project Fear was it's amazing we voted to leave at all. I voted to leave. Did I have a wobble when the currency crashed? Hell yeah. But it became more and more evident that Total Apocalypse was just not going to happen. Things kind of went on as they were.
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Moi aussi, as every good Leaver would say.
French? Wow. Have you ever been there? There is at least one Leaver on here who talks about ‘the French’ but has never visited France (or, even more remarkably, London)
Long range economic forecasting is a mug's game. We shouldn't treat it any more seriously than divination.
And yet billions and billions and billions is spent or committed or invested through its use. That's your pension, that is.
I seriously doubt that anybody in the world makes investment decisions on the basis of economic forecasts, decades out. Certainly if you are investing prudentially, as pension funds are, your starting assumption is that you haven't a fing clue what is going to happen, and nor does anyone else, and you act to protect yourself from unknowns, not to profit from knowns.
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Because people arent usually evidence based. Much of what makes a leaver or remainer is gut feeling. Considering how relentless Project Fear was it's amazing we voted to leave at all. I voted to leave. Did I have a wobble when the currency crashed? Hell yeah. But it became more and more evident that Total Apocalypse was just not going to happen. Things kind of went on as they were.
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Leaving will slightly increase non-tariff barriers between the U.K. and the EU, and will also depress - to an extent - economic activity in the U.K. beneath what it would otherwise have been as some businesses put off some investment decisions until the new trading picture is clear.
Other than that, the economic warnings are massively overdone. We could have stayed and continued to wait patiently for the EU to complete the single market in services, and hoped that with our input they regulated those flexibly and responsively in a way that worked for us globally. Or, we could leave and have the freedom to do it ourselves with respect to the 94% of world population and 81% of the world’s economy outside the EU, that will only get bigger with time, but accept a short-term hit during the transition and a with few more bureaucratic obstacles to future services trade on the continent.
My view is the same as it was in June 2016: short-term stagnation, medium-term no big difference and long-term beneficial.
Every living former cabinet secretary voted against the government on the customs union this afternoon (Lords Armstrong, Butler, Wilson, Turnbull and O'Donnell)
Lord Kerr, who proposed the amendment, is a former chief civil servant at the Foreign Office. He was joined in voting against the government by his two successors, Lord Jay and Lord Ricketts
This was precisely why Gove and Cummings were right that a purge of the civil service was required in order to implement Brexit in a meaningful way.
They failed, so I expect a mutilated or cancelled Brexit.
Ah, the “stabbed in the back” argument.
And we would have got away with it too, if it wasn’t for those pesky experts. Too be honest, no one has a Scooby what the point of Brexit is supposed to be.
This is no dolschtosslegende, thank you very much. It’s just a dispassionate assessment of the situation.
@Cyclefree It’s really odd someone said you argue like a man, I’ve never thought the way people argue could be distinguished into male and female styles.
Alan Clark famously said (referring to Maggie Thatcher) that it was impossible to win an argument with a woman - the female tactic being to keep going round and round in circles until the man gets fed up and accepts defeat. Like many (most?) married men I can definitely see the grain of truth in that though it was a typically sexist and simplistic comment from AC.
I’ve of Alan Clark before, I didn’t know he was sexist though.
A pretty horrible human being, I imagine, but a great diarist.
The sort of man who might be described (by those of my mother’s generation) as NSIT - Not Safe in Taxis.
Wow.
Alan Clark was a charmer.
You have to admire any man who manages to have affairs with a woman and two of her daughters, concurrently.
Every living former cabinet secretary voted against the government on the customs union this afternoon (Lords Armstrong, Butler, Wilson, Turnbull and O'Donnell)
Lord Kerr, who proposed the amendment, is a former chief civil servant at the Foreign Office. He was joined in voting against the government by his two successors, Lord Jay and Lord Ricketts
This was precisely why Gove and Cummings were right that a purge of the civil service was required in order to implement Brexit in a meaningful way.
They failed, so I expect a mutilated or cancelled Brexit.
Ah, the “stabbed in the back” argument.
And we would have got away with it too, if it wasn’t for those pesky experts. Too be honest, no one has a Scooby what the point of Brexit is supposed to be.
This is no dolschtosslegende, thank you very much. It’s just a dispassionate assessment of the situation.
Brexit aspired to be history making but it ended up fizzling out because the domino effect didn't happen and simply validated the raison d'etre of the EU.
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Because people arent usually evidence based. Much of what makes a leaver or remainer is gut feeling. Considering how relentless Project Fear was it's amazing we voted to leave at all. I voted to leave. Did I have a wobble when the currency crashed? Hell yeah. But it became more and more evident that Total Apocalypse was just not going to happen. Things kind of went on as they were.
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Leaving will slightly increase non-tariff barriers between the U.K. and the EU, and will also depress - to an extent - economic activity in the U.K. beneath what it would otherwise have been as some businesses put off some investment decisions until the new trading picture is clear.
Other than that, the economic warnings are massively overdone. We could have stayed and continued to wait patiently for the EU to complete the single market in services, and hoped that with our input they regulated those flexibly and responsively in a way that worked for us globally. Or, we could leave and have the freedom to do it ourselves with respect to the 94% of world population and 81% of the world’s economy outside the EU, that will only get bigger with time, but accept a short-term hit during the transition and a with few more bureaucratic obstacles to future services trade on the continent.
My view is the same as it was in June 2016: short-term stagnation, medium-term no big difference and long-term beneficial.
If we can’t get a single services market with the EU, how the hell are we going to do it with “94% of the world population”?
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Because people arent usually evidence based. Much of what makes a leaver or remainer is gut feeling. Considering how relentless Project Fear was it's amazing we voted to leave at all. I voted to leave. Did I have a wobble when the currency crashed? Hell yeah. But it became more and more evident that Total Apocalypse was just not going to happen. Things kind of went on as they were.
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Good for you , what has convinced you ? As BIno does not happen until next year.
It was never the leaving of the EU itself that I was concerned about, but the instability that it created. Instability increases risk, the greater the risk, the greater reward required.
Project Fear was never about what would happen when we leave, it was about what would happen in the short term following a vote to leave.
It had never dawned on me that the EU saw our membership in a purely transactional way, like we saw our membership.
We want to sell our goods and services, travel, work and live in the EU with as little trouble as possible, in return we give them £280 million pound a week.
The EU want £280 million pound a week in return they let us sell our goods and services and let UK citizens come to work, live and travel freely in the EU.
It's as much about the money to them, as it is to us. That has been made perfectly clear in the first few rounds of negotiations.
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Because people arent usually evidence based. Much of what makes a leaver or remainer is gut feeling. Considering how relentless Project Fear was it's amazing we voted to leave at all. I voted to leave. Did I have a wobble when the currency crashed? Hell yeah. But it became more and more evident that Total Apocalypse was just not going to happen. Things kind of went on as they were.
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Personally I never subscribed to Project Fear, and criticised the Remain campaign at the time for centreing on it, rather than the more positive reasons to stay in.
I think that there will be no bang (though there are likely to be market swings over various points this year) more a gradual erosion of British influence, economic performance and cultural life over the next decade or two, softened by an extended Transition.
I don't expect many people to change their mind either way. This was a decision based on values rather than economics. Most likely after a couple of years we will wonder what all the fuss was about, as we still follow EU rules, and have nothing to show for it.
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Because people arent usually evidence based. Much of what makes a leaver or remainer is gut feeling. Considering how relentless Project Fear was it's amazing we voted to leave at all. I voted to leave. Did I have a wobble when the currency crashed? Hell yeah. But it became more and more evident that Total Apocalypse was just not going to happen. Things kind of went on as they were.
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Leaving will slightly increase non-tariff barriers between the U.K. and the EU, and will also depress - to an extent - economic activity in the U.K. beneath what it would otherwise have been as some businesses put off some investment decisions until the new trading picture is clear.
Other than that, the economic warnings are massively overdone. We could have stayed and continued to wait patiently for the EU to complete the single market in services, and hoped that with our input they regulated those flexibly and responsively in a way that worked for us globally. Or, we could leave and have the freedom to do it ourselves with respect to the 94% of world population and 81% of the world’s economy outside the EU, that will only get bigger with time, but accept a short-term hit during the transition and a with few more bureaucratic obstacles to future services trade on the continent.
My view is the same as it was in June 2016: short-term stagnation, medium-term no big difference and long-term beneficial.
If we can’t get a single services market with the EU, how the hell are we going to do it with “94% of the world population”?
I’m not interested in a global single services market, I am interested in the U.K. having regulatory freedom in services to best take advantage of and respond to future global opportunities.
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Because people arent usually evidence based. Much of what makes a leaver or remainer is gut feeling. Considering how relentless Project Fear was it's amazing we voted to leave at all. I voted to leave. Did I have a wobble when the currency crashed? Hell yeah. But it became more and more evident that Total Apocalypse was just not going to happen. Things kind of went on as they were.
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Personally I never subscribed to Project Fear, and criticised the Remain campaign at the time for centreing on it, rather than the more positive reasons to stay in.
I think that there will be no bang (though there are likely to be market swings over various points this year) more a gradual erosion of British influence, economic performance and cultural life over the next decade or two, softened by an extended Transition.
I don't expect many people to change their mind either way. This was a decision based on values rather than economics. Most likely after a couple of years we will wonder what all the fuss was about, as we still follow EU rules, and have nothing to show for it.
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
If I was a betting man, I'd put a few bob on her.
If she’s any good I don’t see her getting promoted!
Mr. Barnesian, pathos is the way of leading the weak of will and mind, tugging on heartstrings rather than applying reason and logic.
Dr. Foxy, Morris Dancer has no diversity training. Morris Dancer needs no diversity training.
[+5 fantasy points to anyone who gets the reference, from which almost all the words have been changed].
Aristotle's Rhetoric - logos, pathos and ethos - should be read and understood by all political leaflet writers.
Pathos works - "imagine it was your own mother who ...." Logos gives spurious legitimacy but is boring and unconvincing except to the already convinced. Ethos is the last resort. "Experts say ..." "The Government says ..." "Decent people ..."
Mythos can be effective as well
Aristotle didn't cover that.
It’s worth reading Karen Armstrong on mythos vs logos although it’s heavy going at tones
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
If I was a betting man, I'd put a few bob on her.
100-1 with Lads to be next Tory leader.Safe seat,Devizes with over 40% maj. but is it safe to assume there will be a remain supporter in the final 2?
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
If I was a betting man, I'd put a few bob on her.
100-1 with Lads to be next Tory leader.Safe seat,Devizes with over 40% maj. but is it safe to assume there will be a remain supporter in the final 2?
Why not - as I have said there will be a number of female candidates for leader when the time comes
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
If I was a betting man, I'd put a few bob on her.
100-1 with Lads to be next Tory leader.Safe seat,Devizes with over 40% maj. but is it safe to assume there will be a remain supporter in the final 2?
No chance, don't think she has much of a following in the Parliamentary Party.
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
If I was a betting man, I'd put a few bob on her.
Plenty of false dawns, and I wonder if more likely for next Leader bar one or two.
I suspect May will stand down as Leader before the next election, so the next Leader will be straight into PM, so probably an experienced senior minister at present. That leaves a pretty rum crew, but likely to be one of them anyway.
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
If I was a betting man, I'd put a few bob on her.
If she’s any good I don’t see her getting promoted!
LOL. Indeed being as shite as humanely possible is a good career strategy in Tessa May’s league of dullards.
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Because people arent usually evidence based. Much of what makes a leaver or remainer is gut feeling. Considering how relentless Project Fear was it's amazing we voted to leave at all. I voted to leave. Did I have a wobble when the currency crashed? Hell yeah. But it became more and more evident that Total Apocalypse was just not going to happen. Things kind of went on as they were.
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Leaving will slightly increase non-tariff barriers between the U.K. and the EU, and will also depress - to an extent - economic activity in the U.K. beneath what it would otherwise have been as some businesses put off some investment decisions until the new trading picture is clear.
Other than that, the economic warnings are massively overdone. We could have stayed and continued to wait patiently for the EU to complete the single market in services, and hoped that with our input they regulated those flexibly and responsively in a way that worked for us globally. Or, we could leave and have the freedom to do it ourselves with respect to the 94% of world population and 81% of the world’s economy outside the EU, that will only get bigger with time, but accept a short-term hit during the transition and a with few more bureaucratic obstacles to future services trade on the continent.
My view is the same as it was in June 2016: short-term stagnation, medium-term no big difference and long-term beneficial.
If we can’t get a single services market with the EU, how the hell are we going to do it with “94% of the world population”?
I’m not interested in a global single services market, I am interested in the U.K. having regulatory freedom in services to best take advantage of and respond to future global opportunities.
I'm not sure there is a meaningful way of staying in a customs union and honouring the Brexit vote.
Therefore the Lords have actually just voted to ignore the referendum.
Brave.
The Lords have done no such thing... You've leapt from not being sure "there is a meaningful way of staying in a customs union and honouring the Brexit vote" to concluding that the Lords have voted to ignore the referendum.
We can leave the EU but stay in the Customs Union... and I suspect that we may well end up doing that. Look on the bright side - it'll give the Eurosceptics something to continue moaning about ad infinitum.
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
If I was a betting man, I'd put a few bob on her.
Plenty of false dawns, and I wonder if more likely for next Leader bar one or two.
I suspect May will stand down as Leader before the next election, so the next Leader will be straight into PM, so probably an experienced senior minister at present. That leaves a pretty rum crew, but likely to be one of them anyway.
POTUS can only pardon federal crimes. State governors have pardon power over state crimes (some are assisted by or directed by state boards as well). Within the powers enumerated to them, or not enumerated either way by the federal constitution, the states are sovereign, so the feds could not stop a state prosecution for a state crime.
That said, I would have thought that attempting to re-try at state level a crime that had been through federal prosecution would ipso facto violate the federal constitutional prohibition of double jeopardy.
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
If I was a betting man, I'd put a few bob on her.
100-1 with Lads to be next Tory leader.Safe seat,Devizes with over 40% maj. but is it safe to assume there will be a remain supporter in the final 2?
A Remainer was in the final 2 last time - and is now PM!
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
If I was a betting man, I'd put a few bob on her.
She's a puritanical idiot.
Is that better or worse than being a swivel-eyed Papist or a blustering buffoon?
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Because people arent usually evidence based. Much of what makes a leaver or remainer is gut feeling. Considering how relentless Project Fear was it's amazing we voted to leave at all. I voted to leave. Did I have a wobble when the currency crashed? Hell yeah. But it became more and more evident that Total Apocalypse was just not going to happen. Things kind of went on as they were.
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Leaving will slightly increase non-tariff barriers between the U.K. and the EU, and will also depress - to an extent - economic activity in the U.K. beneath what it would otherwise have been as some businesses put off some investment decisions until the new trading picture is clear.
Other than that, the economic warnings are massively overdone. We could have stayed and continued to wait patiently for the EU to complete the single market in services, and hoped that with our input they regulated those flexibly and responsively in a way that worked for us globally. Or, we could leave and have the freedom to do it ourselves with respect to the 94% of world population and 81% of the world’s economy outside the EU, that will only get bigger with time, but accept a short-term hit during the transition and a with few more bureaucratic obstacles to future services trade on the continent.
My view is the same as it was in June 2016: short-term stagnation, medium-term no big difference and long-term beneficial.
If we can’t get a single services market with the EU, how the hell are we going to do it with “94% of the world population”?
I’m not interested in a global single services market, I am interested in the U.K. having regulatory freedom in services to best take advantage of and respond to future global opportunities.
Chortle. Meaningless platitudes.
I’m afraid it isn’t. It’s a choice.
It’s also the settled negotiating position of HMG, who recognise the benefits of the U.K. being outside the digital single market, for example, in a cabinet with a majority of Remainers.
An overreaction, that would be. If we think bicameralism is a bad idea, it shouldn't take being frustrated for that idea to emerge. If we want a different type of second chamber, well that's a discussion that should have been settled a long time ago, but given the Commons can override the Lords, I don't really see that abolishing HoL and replacing it with another kind of chamber would replace it with something more pliant, or why that would be a good idea.
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
If I was a betting man, I'd put a few bob on her.
I doubt it. She’s not very popular amongst the members, and would have little to no following amongst MPs.
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
If I was a betting man, I'd put a few bob on her.
100-1 with Lads to be next Tory leader.Safe seat,Devizes with over 40% maj. but is it safe to assume there will be a remain supporter in the final 2?
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
If I was a betting man, I'd put a few bob on her.
She's a puritanical idiot.
Is that better or worse than being a swivel-eyed Papist or a blustering buffoon?
Since staying in the customs union is consistent both with more money for the NHS and being beastly to foreigners, Leavers who would prefer to be outside the customs union have no ground for complaint.
If The Lords set themselves against the people (which it looks like that want to do) there will only be one outcome.
At the very most they'd only be setting themselves against the 37.5% who actually voted Leave and even then it's not at all clear how many of those saw leaving the Customs Union as an essential part of Leaving the EU.
If The Lords set themselves against the people (which it looks like that want to do) there will only be one outcome.
It’s a bit cheeky for George Osborne to say the GE2017 manifesto was disastrous because it included a pledge on fox hunting. So did his in 2015.
Besides which, he’s wrong. In GE2017 a majority of MPs were elected in the HoC on a platform of supporting the Governments position on Brexit, which was formalised in the Con-DUP S&C deal thereafter.
If The Lords set themselves against the people (which it looks like that want to do) there will only be one outcome.
At the very most they'd only be setting themselves against the 37.5% who actually voted Leave and even then it's not at all clear how many of those saw leaving the Customs Union as an essential part of Leaving the EU.
The 37.5% argument, the mark of a truly demented Remainer.
If The Lords set themselves against the people (which it looks like that want to do) there will only be one outcome.
It’s a bit cheeky for George Osborne to say the GE2017 manifesto was disastrous because it included a pledge on fox hunting. So did his in 2015.
Besides which, he’s wrong. In GE2017 a majority of MPs were elected in the HoC on a platform of supporting the Governments position on Brexit, which was formalised in the Con-DUP S&C deal thereafter.
The problem with that argument is that 70-75% of LAB voters were against Brexit whatever the small print of the manifesto said.
I’m glad that you’ve changed your mind on him. I now assume that PB Tories will no longer support the leader of Canada’s Conservative opposition, since they have in Trudeau a new ally
Can't help wondering how many instinctive leavers voted Remain purely because they were scared by the economic forecasts Project Fear unleashed.
Yet far from swinging behind Leave, Remain have gained ground in the polls. Leave is not winning converts.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
Because people arent usually evidence based. Much of what makes a leaver or remainer is gut feeling. Considering how relentless Project Fear was it's amazing we voted to leave at all. I voted to leave. Did I have a wobble when the currency crashed? Hell yeah. But it became more and more evident that Total Apocalypse was just not going to happen. Things kind of went on as they were.
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Personally I never subscribed to Project Fear, and criticised the Remain campaign at the time for centreing on it, rather than the more positive reasons to stay in.
I think that there will be no bang (though there are likely to be market swings over various points this year) more a gradual erosion of British influence, economic performance and cultural life over the next decade or two, softened by an extended Transition.
I don't expect many people to change their mind either way. This was a decision based on values rather than economics. Most likely after a couple of years we will wonder what all the fuss was about, as we still follow EU rules, and have nothing to show for it.
Yep, we’ll be a bit poorer than we would have been and a lot less influential; we’ll lose a fair bit of soft power. But on a day to day basis not much will change - except when people go on holiday or try to retire to the costas.
If The Lords set themselves against the people (which it looks like that want to do) there will only be one outcome.
It’s a bit cheeky for George Osborne to say the GE2017 manifesto was disastrous because it included a pledge on fox hunting. So did his in 2015.
Besides which, he’s wrong. In GE2017 a majority of MPs were elected in the HoC on a platform of supporting the Governments position on Brexit, which was formalised in the Con-DUP S&C deal thereafter.
The problem with that argument is that 70-75% of LAB voters were against Brexit whatever the small print of the manifesto said.
My argument is against the one that says the Salisbury convention, conveniently, doesn't apply.
I would expect Labour to cause political difficulty for the Government, but they didn't win the election.
What a load of crap this "Lords set themselves against the people" thing is. That was two years ago from organisations that told big big lies in spite of warning and are being investigated for their spending. Until that's been cleared up there can be no claim that there is mandate for going forward.
What a load of crap this "Lords set themselves against the people" thing is. That was two years ago from organisations that told big big lies in spite of warning and are being investigated for their spending. Until that's been cleared up there can be no claim that there is mandate for going forward.
Our MP just called a Labour Member a Useless Tosser
Apparently its not vile abuse though
Perhaps he was talking about that member's abilities to make pancakes.
Nah the Member pointed out the CLP Accounts (produced by the MPs wife) did not balance
His response
Toby Perkins As my Mother used to say Peter 'those who do nowt do nowt wrong'. I'm sure there is a time that you've actually done something or said something positive, it's just a shame I wasn't there to witness it. Until you do, the poor saps who actually take on large voluntary tasks will continue to do so to the best of their imperfect abilities while useless tossers sit there on their brains criticising. It was ever thus.
Comments
Meanwhile, some MPs may well feel emboldened by the Lords' intervention.
Finally, I saw some ERG MP's suggestion that the votes in the Commons should be treated as votes of confidence. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, that doesn't work.
Of course, it's also deliberate; it's an only slightly tongue-in-cheek attempt to play the £350m a week bus game in reverse.
They failed, so I expect a mutilated or cancelled Brexit.
And we would have got away with it too, if it wasn’t for those pesky experts. Too be honest, no one has a Scooby what the point of Brexit is supposed to be.
Personally, I'm confident that the public has stopped taking such "forecasts" seriously. They are choke full of simplistic assumptions, and those made in 2016 for 2030 were shown to be badly wrong by 2017, so I'm not worried about agenda-driven ones made now for 2033/34.
It doesn't just apply to Brexit. It applies to any meaningful or radical reform of any Government department.
https://twitter.com/BrexitCentral/status/986292729482219520
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/high-court-orders-six-more-bogus-multi-million-pound-companies-into-liquidation
Again no prizes for guessing where all this traces back to.
Curiously, no Leavers ever like to talk about this subject.
https://twitter.com/BrexitCentral/status/986617127691063297/video/1
https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/986667781885177863
*waves at @tyson*
Here we are coming up to two years later, and I am absolutely convinced i made the right decision.
Other than that, the economic warnings are massively overdone. We could have stayed and continued to wait patiently for the EU to complete the single market in services, and hoped that with our input they regulated those flexibly and responsively in a way that worked for us globally. Or, we could leave and have the freedom to do it ourselves with respect to the 94% of world population and 81% of the world’s economy outside the EU, that will only get bigger with time, but accept a short-term hit during the transition and a with few more bureaucratic obstacles to future services trade on the continent.
My view is the same as it was in June 2016: short-term stagnation, medium-term no big difference and long-term beneficial.
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/986668074005704704
Project Fear was never about what would happen when we leave, it was about what would happen in the short term following a vote to leave.
It had never dawned on me that the EU saw our membership in a purely transactional way, like we saw our membership.
We want to sell our goods and services, travel, work and live in the EU with as little trouble as possible, in return we give them £280 million pound a week.
The EU want £280 million pound a week in return they let us sell our goods and services and let UK citizens come to work, live and travel freely in the EU.
It's as much about the money to them, as it is to us. That has been made perfectly clear in the first few rounds of negotiations.
I think that there will be no bang (though there are likely to be market swings over various points this year) more a gradual erosion of British influence, economic performance and cultural life over the next decade or two, softened by an extended Transition.
I don't expect many people to change their mind either way. This was a decision based on values rather than economics. Most likely after a couple of years we will wonder what all the fuss was about, as we still follow EU rules, and have nothing to show for it.
Abolition would win hands down...
I was at an event today where Claire Perry spoke. If folk are looking for a Tory Moderate to take on BoJo or the Moggster, she is an order of magnitude better than Rudd. I would expect her to see a big promotion in the next reshuffle. Could well have the backing of Osborne and Cameron too.
If I was a betting man, I'd put a few bob on her.
I'm not sure there is a meaningful way of staying in a customs union and honouring the Brexit vote.
Therefore the Lords have actually just voted to ignore the referendum.
Brave.
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/986688529785815040
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/986691158419148801
I suspect May will stand down as Leader before the next election, so the next Leader will be straight into PM, so probably an experienced senior minister at present. That leaves a pretty rum crew, but likely to be one of them anyway.
I dont think gender will matter much myself.
We can leave the EU but stay in the Customs Union... and I suspect that we may well end up doing that. Look on the bright side - it'll give the Eurosceptics something to continue moaning about ad infinitum.
That said, I would have thought that attempting to re-try at state level a crime that had been through federal prosecution would ipso facto violate the federal constitutional prohibition of double jeopardy.
It’s also the settled negotiating position of HMG, who recognise the benefits of the U.K. being outside the digital single market, for example, in a cabinet with a majority of Remainers.
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/961908728801976320
Since staying in the customs union is consistent both with more money for the NHS and being beastly to foreigners, Leavers who would prefer to be outside the customs union have no ground for complaint.
Our MP just called a Labour Member a Useless Tosser
Apparently its not vile abuse though
Besides which, he’s wrong. In GE2017 a majority of MPs were elected in the HoC on a platform of supporting the Governments position on Brexit, which was formalised in the Con-DUP S&C deal thereafter.
All 4 BREXIT voters in Chez BJO are
I would expect Labour to cause political difficulty for the Government, but they didn't win the election.
Leavers are just doing Putin's work.
https://twitter.com/mmfa/status/986705702285692930
His response
Toby Perkins As my Mother used to say Peter 'those who do nowt do nowt wrong'. I'm sure there is a time that you've actually done something or said something positive, it's just a shame I wasn't there to witness it. Until you do, the poor saps who actually take on large voluntary tasks will continue to do so to the best of their imperfect abilities while useless tossers sit there on their brains criticising. It was ever thus.