Pretty good ICM for the Tories, suggesting that 3 point Labour lead wasn't an outlier after all.
Richard.
Watching the progress of the Tories is like following the long distance race tactics of Mo Farrah.
Always in touch to the final lap then takes all races and competitors in a sprint to the line.
Seems to work everywhere except in the far North.
Avery you do realise Mo lost at the weekend as his sprint failed ? Nice to see you're on the ball.
Mr. Brooke.
Is it raining in Warwickshire?
Why do you think I referred to the "far North"?
The far North is Scotland, somewhere about Inverness. I would suggest you either improve your english or your geography. I put it down to the weaknesses in your education establishments myself.
Yes, I'd say it starts about Inverness.
Of course, growing up in Angus in the '60s we had a neighbour who went all the way to Whitley Bay for their summer holidays.
This did not go unremarked, as any fule kno Whitley Bay is practically on the Equator...
AveryLP Indeed, I should have added that of course it was Peel not Pitt who went to Harrow. Interestingly Harrow used to have some connection to the Liberals as well as the Tories, Palmerston was a Liberal PM of course, Churchill was a Liberal for a time, and it was the Peelites who along with the Whigs formed the Liberal Party and indeed Gladstone (an Old Etonian) was a prominent Peelite
Taffys Well with the Donald in the US, Ronald Reagan, Schwarzanneger, Sunny Bono, Ben Affleck all having had or mulling over political careers we could do with a few beyond Glenda Jackson
Janan Ganesh on why neither Clegg (a major bargaining chip with Tories post 2015) nor Miliband (if PM he'd waste his first two years) should offer an EU referendum:
Lib Dem Conference: Coalition Government could come to early end before general election in 2015, says Vince Cable
Business Secretary claims he could walk out of the Government if his colleagues allowed the Conservatives to pursue policies that crossed his personal 'red lines'
AveryLP So you joined the alma mater of Dan Hannan, Rab Butler and Kate Middleton instead. Although I expect you may have taken a different view of London's temptations to your old headmaster!
Janan Ganesh on why neither Clegg (a major bargaining chip with Tories post 2015) nor Miliband (if PM he'd waste his first two years) should offer an EU referendum:
Twitter Tim Shipman (Mail) @ShippersUnbound 44m If Clegg was annoyed with Cable last night, he should have a lie down in dark room now Vince says coalition cd collapse and he might quit
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori 7h Simple messaging from the Conservatives - their conference programme. Labour's challenge to come up with similar pic.twitter.com/Uvy6zyLntT
Should I regard this as a compliment or a condemnation ?
I fear also that Charles is too much of a sensitive soul. Certainly compared to yourself and Cousin Seth.
Does this show that Marlborough is a better builder of men than Eton ?
If this had been deduced a century ago we might still have an empire.
There is a big difference between Eton and Harrow and schools such as Marlborough, ar.
If Charles accused you of "turning into tim", I would first ask him to clarify exactly what he means. Eton has very odd traditions including requiring boys to wear "bum-freezers".
Marlborough was founded as a school where Church of England vicars could send their sons. As Patrick will affirm, Marlburians were taught to pray not rule. And sometimes to write poetry (Betjeman, Sassoon, MacNeice) or hunt rabbits.
It was a gentle place which started to import its own fleshpots from the late 1960s.
So it all rather depends on what type of man you want built, ar.
A praying poet or a warrior on the playing fields of Europe.
It is no co-incidence that the wives of the second in line to the throne, the Speaker of the House of Commons, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer are all old Marlburiennes.
@TelePolitics: Listen to the exclusive tape: Tim Loughton suggests Sarah Teather was a bad minister because she has no children http://t.co/GSfHd0Y0gZ
Although it is a stupid thing for an MP to say out loud, I find the premise of what he is saying hard to disagree with.
I wouldn't have been comfortable as a non-parent making decisions on families. Now I have children the world looks a completely different place and I look at very many things very differently. I am a far, far more sympathetic person than I was. It's actually changed me more than I thought it would. My decisions pre-kids would've been different to decisions post-kids.
I know it sounds bonkers but I used to think I loved my dog. Since hving kids, despite him following me everywhere and still sneaking under my duvet, he barely enters my thoughts. You don't really love a pet, you just think you do. Multiply it by a hundred zillion and that is how much more love you feel for a child.
Twitter Laura Kuenssberg @ITVLauraK 9m 'I've been absolutely determined to get that money back for taxpayers and pay down debt, that is what we've started to do today' - Osborne
Twitter Tim Shipman (Mail) @ShippersUnbound 44m If Clegg was annoyed with Cable last night, he should have a lie down in dark room now Vince says coalition cd collapse and he might quit
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori 7h Simple messaging from the Conservatives - their conference programme. Labour's challenge to come up with similar pic.twitter.com/Uvy6zyLntT
"A TAX CUT FOR 25M PEOPLE"
25M ? What's that - about 82 feet? Not many people that tall...
Should I regard this as a compliment or a condemnation ?
I fear also that Charles is too much of a sensitive soul. Certainly compared to yourself and Cousin Seth.
Does this show that Marlborough is a better builder of men than Eton ?
If this had been deduced a century ago we might still have an empire.
There is a big difference between Eton and Harrow and schools such as Marlborough, ar.
If Charles accused you of "turning into tim", I would first ask him to clarify exactly what he means. Eton has very odd traditions including requiring boys to wear "bum-freezers".
Marlborough was founded as a school where Church of England vicars could send their sons. As Patrick will affirm, Marlburians were taught to pray not rule. And sometimes to write poetry (Betjeman, Sassoon, MacNeice) or hunt rabbits.
It was a gentle place which started to import its own fleshpots from the late 1960s.
So it all rather depends on what type of man you want built, ar.
A praying poet or a warrior on the playing fields of Europe.
It is no co-incidence that the wives of the second in line to the throne, the Speaker of the House of Commons, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer are all old Marlburiennes.
Sassoon managed to combine the two roles.
But I never knew that we were being misgoverned by such an Eton-Marlborough clique.
Having read what must be millions of words by SeanT either here or in his torturethrillers or in his Telegraph blogs I can with confidence say:
His blog today was the most tedious and pretentious load of crap by far.
Should have stuck to the original plan of quoting Nick Palmer followed by a tirade of abuse.
To be fair it was written in response to a worse one, by Victoria Coren, although that's no excuse to engage in a race to the bottom.
Coren's piece was standard 'we must tolerant their intolerance otherwsie we are intoleratn' standard guardianista.
SeanT's read like someone trying to be ironically clever but failing.
Don't disagree - if he starts on too much dogwhistling it is a slippery slope but...
It is right to pick up the Guardian at every example of their hypocritical, champagne socialist, my children can go to private school but yours can't, we can utilise tax structures to minimise our tax liability but you can't, you shouldn't drive but our income is driven (or at least was) by autotrader bollocks.
Twitter Tim Shipman (Mail) @ShippersUnbound 44m If Clegg was annoyed with Cable last night, he should have a lie down in dark room now Vince says coalition cd collapse and he might quit
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori 7h Simple messaging from the Conservatives - their conference programme. Labour's challenge to come up with similar pic.twitter.com/Uvy6zyLntT
"Crime down"
Please, please please tell me this will be the message for 2015 rather than 'Britain's going to hell in a handcart' fall-back position for the Tories on crime...
Janan Ganesh on why neither Clegg (a major bargaining chip with Tories post 2015) nor Miliband (if PM he'd waste his first two years) should offer an EU referendum:
DavidL In some ways I hope he ousts Clegg just so he gets to take the hit in 2015
I thought Clegg was excellent on the radio this morning. The only time he sounded he was struggling was when he was trying to explain why his shadow chancellor and Business Secretary was not coming to the economics debate. Childish doesn't begin to cover it.
As I predicted Clegg won the vote easily. If I was him I would fire Cable. That sort of self indulgent buffoonery would be better deployed on the back benches.
Twitter Laura Kuenssberg @ITVLauraK 9m 'I've been absolutely determined to get that money back for taxpayers and pay down debt, that is what we've started to do today' - Osborne
What the f is he on? He does know borrowing is going up? Staggering
Business Secretary claims he could walk out of the Government if his colleagues allowed the Conservatives to pursue policies that crossed his personal 'red lines'l
I thought the Lib Dens decided things democratically, not de haut en bas?
MIss Fitalass: "'I've been absolutely determined to get that money back for taxpayers and pay down debt, that is what we've started to do today' - Osborne"
First off, 'pay down debt' is a stupid term. You pay debt off, not down.
Secondly, this has not been happening, and stating it has is no more than an outright lie. Our deficit remains enormous. Whilst I firmly believe the Conservatives to be best (perhaps least bad) when it comes to the public finances, they (and the other two main parties) are full of shit when it comes to debt and deficit. Through stupidity or wilful deceit they regularly confuse the terms, and the ignorant, inept and partisan media are incapable or unwilling to get across the basic truth of our financial situation.
MIss Fitalass: "'I've been absolutely determined to get that money back for taxpayers and pay down debt, that is what we've started to do today' - Osborne"
First off, 'pay down debt' is a stupid term. You pay debt off, not down.
Secondly, this has not been happening, and stating it has is no more than an outright lie. Our deficit remains enormous. Whilst I firmly believe the Conservatives to be best (perhaps least bad) when it comes to the public finances, they (and the other two main parties) are full of shit when it comes to debt and deficit. Through stupidity or wilful deceit they regularly confuse the terms, and the ignorant, inept and partisan media are incapable or unwilling to get across the basic truth of our financial situation.
Agreed.
"Pay down debt" makes me want to punch him in the throat. No matter how much regard I have for him.
It's up there with "fell pregnant".
And that phrase "going forward". Argghhhh. Richard Keys said it every twelve seconds on Talksport. When I see him I'm punching him in the throat too.
MIss Fitalass: "'I've been absolutely determined to get that money back for taxpayers and pay down debt, that is what we've started to do today' - Osborne"
First off, 'pay down debt' is a stupid term. You pay debt off, not down.
Secondly, this has not been happening, and stating it has is no more than an outright lie. Our deficit remains enormous. Whilst I firmly believe the Conservatives to be best (perhaps least bad) when it comes to the public finances, they (and the other two main parties) are full of shit when it comes to debt and deficit. Through stupidity or wilful deceit they regularly confuse the terms, and the ignorant, inept and partisan media are incapable or unwilling to get across the basic truth of our financial situation.
Janan Ganesh on why neither Clegg (a major bargaining chip with Tories post 2015) nor Miliband (if PM he'd waste his first two years) should offer an EU referendum:
If immigration is an important issue to the electorate, the EU is an important issue to the electorate.
If they understood that the EU would be higher......that its not, suggests they don't....
It doesn't matter. To address immigration, the politicos have to address free movement of people around the EU. If they don't, then UKIP become the only party offering a policy response to immigration.
"Pay down debt" makes me want to punch him in the throat. No matter how much regard I have for him.
It's up there with "fell pregnant".
And that phrase "going forward". Argghhhh. Richard Keys said it every twelve seconds on Talksport. When I see him I'm punching him in the throat too.
There is nothing unusual about using the term pay down rather than pay off debt. The first suggest a partial elimination and the latter a total, but they are generally interchangeable.
And the sale of shares in Lloyds Bank Group wil pay off/down debt as the cash borrowed to finance the purchase of the shares is classified as government debt, albeit hidden by Gordon and ONS in the PSND aggregate figures rather than the more often discussed subset figures PSND ex[cluding financial interventions].
Deficit is defined in so many different ways that it is difficult to say what impact the share shares will have on it.
The bank shares held by the government are periodically revalued in the National Accounts to reflect changes in their market value (they are 'marked to market'). When share prices fell below the prices at which they were purchased a provision was created in the accounts for a loss (if sold at current market prices). Such provisions increase government expenses and thereby make the difference between total revenues and total exoenditure larger, i.e. they increase the annual 'deficit'.
So the impact of selling shares at a price above book value will release any provision held in the accounts for a loss on sale: it will now count as revenue. But don't expect a massive figure here: the accounts should already have near adjusted to the current market price. Also any profit made on the sale will be treated as revenue (or more correctly net profit as net revenue). So the sale of shares at current market prices (if sold at current prices, a big if) would result in a reduction in the deficit.
And because the sale of shares ends the temporary intervention (for that part of the shares held) the impact of the transaction will be entered into the subset figures, eg PSND[B] ex rather than just PSND[B}.
So if Osborne has sold at above purchase price, he will have both paid off/down the debt and reduced the deficit as a result of the transaction. There may also be a whole range of guarantee and fee transactions associated with the shares that also get resolved at the same time.
Comments
Of course, growing up in Angus in the '60s we had a neighbour who went all the way to Whitley Bay for their summer holidays.
This did not go unremarked, as any fule kno Whitley Bay is practically on the Equator...
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/09/16/edl-tommy-robinson-refused-service-selfridges_n_3935038.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003&ir=UK Politics
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6de6f8b2-1c68-11e3-8894-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2f5N3RTap
Business Secretary claims he could walk out of the Government if his colleagues allowed the Conservatives to pursue policies that crossed his personal 'red lines'
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dem-conference-coalition-government-could-come-to-early-end-before-general-election-in-2015-says-vince-cable-8820340.html
I require your advice.
Charles has accused me of turning into tim.
Should I regard this as a compliment or a condemnation ?
I fear also that Charles is too much of a sensitive soul. Certainly compared to yourself and Cousin Seth.
Does this show that Marlborough is a better builder of men than Eton ?
If this had been deduced a century ago we might still have an empire.
His blog today was the most tedious and pretentious load of crap by far.
Should have stuck to the original plan of quoting Nick Palmer followed by a tirade of abuse.
Tim Shipman (Mail) @ShippersUnbound 44m
If Clegg was annoyed with Cable last night, he should have a lie down in dark room now Vince says coalition cd collapse and he might quit
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori 7h
Simple messaging from the Conservatives - their conference programme. Labour's challenge to come up with similar pic.twitter.com/Uvy6zyLntT
If Charles accused you of "turning into tim", I would first ask him to clarify exactly what he means. Eton has very odd traditions including requiring boys to wear "bum-freezers".
Marlborough was founded as a school where Church of England vicars could send their sons. As Patrick will affirm, Marlburians were taught to pray not rule. And sometimes to write poetry (Betjeman, Sassoon, MacNeice) or hunt rabbits.
It was a gentle place which started to import its own fleshpots from the late 1960s.
So it all rather depends on what type of man you want built, ar.
A praying poet or a warrior on the playing fields of Europe.
It is no co-incidence that the wives of the second in line to the throne, the Speaker of the House of Commons, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer are all old Marlburiennes.
I wouldn't have been comfortable as a non-parent making decisions on families. Now I have children the world looks a completely different place and I look at very many things very differently. I am a far, far more sympathetic person than I was. It's actually changed me more than I thought it would. My decisions pre-kids would've been different to decisions post-kids.
I know it sounds bonkers but I used to think I loved my dog. Since hving kids, despite him following me everywhere and still sneaking under my duvet, he barely enters my thoughts. You don't really love a pet, you just think you do. Multiply it by a hundred zillion and that is how much more love you feel for a child.
That is all.
People not sure who is where and what danger is present.
You may need a safe house from the Provo-RSPCA wing.
Laura Kuenssberg @ITVLauraK 9m
'I've been absolutely determined to get that money back for taxpayers and pay down debt, that is what we've started to do today' - Osborne
SeanT's read like someone trying to be ironically clever but failing.
25M ? What's that - about 82 feet? Not many people that tall...
But I never knew that we were being misgoverned by such an Eton-Marlborough clique.
My thanks Avery.
It is right to pick up the Guardian at every example of their hypocritical, champagne socialist, my children can go to private school but yours can't, we can utilise tax structures to minimise our tax liability but you can't, you shouldn't drive but our income is driven (or at least was) by autotrader bollocks.
Please, please please tell me this will be the message for 2015 rather than 'Britain's going to hell in a handcart' fall-back position for the Tories on crime...
Please?
Cable has a cast iron 12,000 majority in Twickenham, advocating a mansion tax that would hit a fair few of his constituents.
Funny people, voters.
As I predicted Clegg won the vote easily. If I was him I would fire Cable. That sort of self indulgent buffoonery would be better deployed on the back benches.
MIss Fitalass: "'I've been absolutely determined to get that money back for taxpayers and pay down debt, that is what we've started to do today' - Osborne"
First off, 'pay down debt' is a stupid term. You pay debt off, not down.
Secondly, this has not been happening, and stating it has is no more than an outright lie. Our deficit remains enormous. Whilst I firmly believe the Conservatives to be best (perhaps least bad) when it comes to the public finances, they (and the other two main parties) are full of shit when it comes to debt and deficit. Through stupidity or wilful deceit they regularly confuse the terms, and the ignorant, inept and partisan media are incapable or unwilling to get across the basic truth of our financial situation.
Has Osborne actually committed himself to anything today?
"Pay down debt" makes me want to punch him in the throat. No matter how much regard I have for him.
It's up there with "fell pregnant".
And that phrase "going forward". Argghhhh. Richard Keys said it every twelve seconds on Talksport. When I see him I'm punching him in the throat too.
And Cable. He's having it. Treacherous bastard.
Mind you he does change his obsessions, it used to be George Galloway.
Agreed.
"Pay down debt" makes me want to punch him in the throat. No matter how much regard I have for him.
It's up there with "fell pregnant".
And that phrase "going forward". Argghhhh. Richard Keys said it every twelve seconds on Talksport. When I see him I'm punching him in the throat too.
There is nothing unusual about using the term pay down rather than pay off debt. The first suggest a partial elimination and the latter a total, but they are generally interchangeable.
And the sale of shares in Lloyds Bank Group wil pay off/down debt as the cash borrowed to finance the purchase of the shares is classified as government debt, albeit hidden by Gordon and ONS in the PSND aggregate figures rather than the more often discussed subset figures PSND ex[cluding financial interventions].
Deficit is defined in so many different ways that it is difficult to say what impact the share shares will have on it.
The bank shares held by the government are periodically revalued in the National Accounts to reflect changes in their market value (they are 'marked to market'). When share prices fell below the prices at which they were purchased a provision was created in the accounts for a loss (if sold at current market prices). Such provisions increase government expenses and thereby make the difference between total revenues and total exoenditure larger, i.e. they increase the annual 'deficit'.
So the impact of selling shares at a price above book value will release any provision held in the accounts for a loss on sale: it will now count as revenue. But don't expect a massive figure here: the accounts should already have near adjusted to the current market price. Also any profit made on the sale will be treated as revenue (or more correctly net profit as net revenue). So the sale of shares at current market prices (if sold at current prices, a big if) would result in a reduction in the deficit.
And because the sale of shares ends the temporary intervention (for that part of the shares held) the impact of the transaction will be entered into the subset figures, eg PSND[B] ex rather than just PSND[B}.
So if Osborne has sold at above purchase price, he will have both paid off/down the debt and reduced the deficit as a result of the transaction. There may also be a whole range of guarantee and fee transactions associated with the shares that also get resolved at the same time.
'Going forward' that is!