Lib Dem supporters would overwhelmingly prefer the party to form a coalition with Labour after the next election and not the Conservatives, a new ICM poll suggests.
ICM asked people which party they would like the Lib Dems to choose as a coalition partner if no party wins an outright majority in 2015.
Amongst all voters, there was a clear preference for Labour. These are the overall figures.
Labour: 37%
Conservatives: 29%
But amongst Lib Dem supporters (people saying they would vote Lib Dem now) people favour Labour by more than 2 to 1.
Labour: 56%
Conservatives: 22%
The figures come from the latest poll that ICM has conducted for the Guardian. The full findings will be published on our website later this afternoon.
I wonder whether part of this of problem is the colour black. A brighter or multi coloured face uncovered body outfit would seem less threatening and austere ?
Union Jack patterned burqas would satisfy everyone.
Not in Norn Irn.
For the northern Irish market, you need something more niche:
If about a third of LD voters in Clegg's constituency switch directly to Labour they'd win the seat for the first time in history, bypassing the Tories.
""The government actually bought the shares at an average price of 73.6p during Lloyds' £20.3bn bailout at the height of the financial crisis, but the average market price at the time was 61p."
Doubt much profit coming on this tranche...
6% at £3.3bn implies a sale price of 77p, netting a profit of £150m on the sale. The only way is up for LLOY, I've been in since 44p!
We still have 32% left to flog - hopefully the share price continues upward..
If about a third of LD voters in Clegg's constituency switch directly to Labour they'd win the seat for the first time in history, bypassing the Tories.
"The Liberal Democrats have admitted that they made a “gold-plated cock-up” by accidentally leaking a document which said the party wants to raise taxes on those earning over £50,000 a year."
Team Clegg said they had no idea where that idea came from. How quickly they forget...
Millions of middle-class Britons must get ready to pay higher taxes, Nick Clegg has declared.
With the nation facing its longest period of belt-tightening since the war, the Deputy Prime Minister said the ‘top 10 per cent’ – around 3million earning more than £50,500 – should brace themselves for new levies.
Options include an end to tax relief on pension contributions for higher-rate taxpayers, an ‘accessions tax’ to replace inheritance tax, and further increases in capital gains tax.
Am I a bad man, if I were to suggest that it be mandatory for some women to wear the burqa?
I'm thinking the sort of ladies you see on the Jeremy Kyle Show.
Not at all Mr Eagles, sometimes it has its place, I've always assumed ladies wearing Burqas had better beards than their husbands and didn't want to embarass them.
I have a close friend, 2nd generation British Muslim, his parents were both born here, very liberal, very westernised. Married to another British Muslim. They're both lawyers, they drink, and are barely religious. Every couple of years or so the family get a visit from the olds from Pakistan, so Lalla has to spend a day or so in a full niqab, playing the game to keep the old relatives in blissful ignorance, he even cultivates a beard for a few weeks beforehand. Lalla hates it, but he says she gets her own back by wearing 500 quid's worth of Agent Provocateur under it. I don't think she has a beard!
If about a third of LD voters in Clegg's constituency switch directly to Labour they'd win the seat for the first time in history, bypassing the Tories.
That's nearly a 20% swing.
Can't see it happening.
Actually, he did increase his absolute votes by nearly a third in 2010.
I wonder whether part of this of problem is the colour black. A brighter or multi coloured face uncovered body outfit would seem less threatening and austere ?
Union Jack patterned burqas would satisfy everyone.
Not in Norn Irn.
For the northern Irish market, you need something more niche:
Lib Dem supporters would overwhelmingly prefer the party to form a coalition with Labour after the next election and not the Conservatives, a new ICM poll suggests.
ICM asked people which party they would like the Lib Dems to choose as a coalition partner if no party wins an outright majority in 2015.
Amongst all voters, there was a clear preference for Labour. These are the overall figures.
Labour: 37%
Conservatives: 29%
But amongst Lib Dem supporters (people saying they would vote Lib Dem now) people favour Labour by more than 2 to 1.
Labour: 56%
Conservatives: 22%
The figures come from the latest poll that ICM has conducted for the Guardian. The full findings will be published on our website later this afternoon.
Who shafted Paddy A? Who shafted David Steele? Who shafted Jeremy Thorpe? Who shafted Charlie K? Who shafted Ming C? Who shafted Lib / LibDems at every opportunity? Who shafted LibDems by making a genuine offer?
The answer to all the above bar one are Lab or Lib.
If about a third of LD voters in Clegg's constituency switch directly to Labour they'd win the seat for the first time in history, bypassing the Tories.
That's nearly a 20% swing.
Can't see it happening.
The seat is changing demographically in a Labour direction which could mean there's a bigger than average Conservative to Labour swing as well. Clegg should hold on but I think it'll be closer than people expect.
Maybe Lord Ashcroft might be tempted to conduct a constituency poll there sometime.
I wonder whether part of this of problem is the colour black. A brighter or multi coloured face uncovered body outfit would seem less threatening and austere ?
Union Jack patterned burqas would satisfy everyone.
Not in Norn Irn.
For the northern Irish market, you need something more niche:
I spent the last few days at a northern Irish wedding in Norway. Apparently it's compulsory in Norway to fly flags on certain days of the year (or very strongly encouraged). This caused much comment among the northern Irish contingent.
Who shafted Paddy A? Who shafted David Steele? Who shafted Jeremy Thorpe? Who shafted Charlie K? Who shafted Ming C? Who shafted Lib / LibDems at every opportunity? Who shafted LibDems by making a genuine offer?
The answer to all the above bar one are Lab or Lib.
It's a bit like those who will vote UKIP to let in Labour to teach the Tories a lesson...
If the Lib Dems form a coalition with Labour next time, the first thing they will have to do is vote through a budget reversing all the austerity they endured for 5 years.
It will make tuition fees look like a resounding triumph by comparison
Lib Dem supporters would overwhelmingly prefer the party to form a coalition with Labour after the next election and not the Conservatives, a new ICM poll suggests.
ICM asked people which party they would like the Lib Dems to choose as a coalition partner if no party wins an outright majority in 2015.
Amongst all voters, there was a clear preference for Labour. These are the overall figures.
Labour: 37%
Conservatives: 29%
But amongst Lib Dem supporters (people saying they would vote Lib Dem now) people favour Labour by more than 2 to 1.
Labour: 56%
Conservatives: 22%
The figures come from the latest poll that ICM has conducted for the Guardian. The full findings will be published on our website later this afternoon.
Who shafted Paddy A? Who shafted David Steele? Who shafted Jeremy Thorpe? Who shafted Charlie K? Who shafted Ming C? Who shafted Lib / LibDems at every opportunity? Who shafted LibDems by making a genuine offer?
The answer to all the above bar one are Lab or Lib.
I don't think we're allowed to speculate on who shafted Jeremy Thorpe
If about a third of LD voters in Clegg's constituency switch directly to Labour they'd win the seat for the first time in history, bypassing the Tories.
That's nearly a 20% swing.
Can't see it happening.
The seat is changing demographically in a Labour direction which could mean there's a bigger than average Conservative to Labour swing as well. Clegg should hold on but I think it'll be closer than people expect.
Maybe Lord Ashcroft might be tempted to conduct a constituency poll there sometime.
Lib Dem supporters would overwhelmingly prefer the party to form a coalition with Labour after the next election and not the Conservatives, a new ICM poll suggests.
ICM asked people which party they would like the Lib Dems to choose as a coalition partner if no party wins an outright majority in 2015.
Amongst all voters, there was a clear preference for Labour. These are the overall figures.
Labour: 37%
Conservatives: 29%
But amongst Lib Dem supporters (people saying they would vote Lib Dem now) people favour Labour by more than 2 to 1.
Labour: 56%
Conservatives: 22%
The figures come from the latest poll that ICM has conducted for the Guardian. The full findings will be published on our website later this afternoon.
Who shafted Paddy A? Who shafted David Steele? Who shafted Jeremy Thorpe? Who shafted Charlie K? Who shafted Ming C? Who shafted Lib / LibDems at every opportunity? Who shafted LibDems by making a genuine offer?
The answer to all the above bar one are Lab or Lib.
I don't think we're allowed to speculate on who shafted Jeremy Thorpe
That's why he is in the list. Rinka (was that the dogs name?) was however, innocent.
Lib Dem supporters would overwhelmingly prefer the party to form a coalition with Labour after the next election and not the Conservatives, a new ICM poll suggests.
ICM asked people which party they would like the Lib Dems to choose as a coalition partner if no party wins an outright majority in 2015.
Amongst all voters, there was a clear preference for Labour. These are the overall figures.
Labour: 37%
Conservatives: 29%
But amongst Lib Dem supporters (people saying they would vote Lib Dem now) people favour Labour by more than 2 to 1.
Labour: 56%
Conservatives: 22%
The figures come from the latest poll that ICM has conducted for the Guardian. The full findings will be published on our website later this afternoon.
Who shafted Paddy A? Who shafted David Steele? Who shafted Jeremy Thorpe? Who shafted Charlie K? Who shafted Ming C? Who shafted Lib / LibDems at every opportunity? Who shafted LibDems by making a genuine offer?
The answer to all the above bar one are Lab or Lib.
I don't think we're allowed to speculate on who shafted Jeremy Thorpe
That's why he is in the list. Rinka (was that the dogs name?) was however, innocent.
Lib Dem supporters would overwhelmingly prefer the party to form a coalition with Labour after the next election and not the Conservatives, a new ICM poll suggests.
ICM asked people which party they would like the Lib Dems to choose as a coalition partner if no party wins an outright majority in 2015.
Amongst all voters, there was a clear preference for Labour. These are the overall figures.
Labour: 37%
Conservatives: 29%
But amongst Lib Dem supporters (people saying they would vote Lib Dem now) people favour Labour by more than 2 to 1.
Labour: 56%
Conservatives: 22%
The figures come from the latest poll that ICM has conducted for the Guardian. The full findings will be published on our website later this afternoon.
Who shafted Paddy A? Who shafted David Steele? Who shafted Jeremy Thorpe? Who shafted Charlie K? Who shafted Ming C? Who shafted Lib / LibDems at every opportunity? Who shafted LibDems by making a genuine offer?
The answer to all the above bar one are Lab or Lib.
I don't think we're allowed to speculate on who shafted Jeremy Thorpe
That's why he is in the list. Rinka (was that the dogs name?) was however, innocent.
If about a third of LD voters in Clegg's constituency switch directly to Labour they'd win the seat for the first time in history, bypassing the Tories.
That's nearly a 20% swing.
Can't see it happening.
The seat is changing demographically in a Labour direction which could mean there's a bigger than average Conservative to Labour swing as well. Clegg should hold on but I think it'll be closer than people expect.
Maybe Lord Ashcroft might be tempted to conduct a constituency poll there sometime.
Tell me more about Sheffield Hallam.
From the Almanac of British Politics:
"Sheffield Hallam must be one of the most sophisticated electorates in the country. It figures in the lists of the top ten seats in Britain for professional and managerial workers, numbers of students and of 18 year olds in higher education, and those with higher educational qualifications. Nearly 80% of those in work here are in middle-class occupations.
South-western Sheffield, from the bohemian university area of Broomhill through Ecclesall and Fulwood out to the fringe of hte Peak District at Dore and Totley, is a leafy neighbourhood of outstanding residential quality. There are many dark-stone mansions standing solidly among the wooded hills, and only some of them are now broken up into flats and bed-sits. Further out can be found modern semis and detached houses in great numbers as Sheffield's professional and managerial groupings gather together in as concentrated a pattern of residential segregation as may be found in Britain."
In 2010 the Labour vote declined by only 1.7% compared to 6.5% nationally, despite the fact that they had no chance of winning and that the seat was mainly a LD/Conservative battle.
In fact their absolute number of votes went up, from 8,160 to 8,228:
I wonder whether part of this of problem is the colour black. A brighter or multi coloured face uncovered body outfit would seem less threatening and austere ?
Union Jack patterned burqas would satisfy everyone.
Not in Norn Irn.
For the northern Irish market, you need something more niche:
I spent the last few days at a northern Irish wedding in Norway. Apparently it's compulsory in Norway to fly flags on certain days of the year (or very strongly encouraged). This caused much comment among the northern Irish contingent.
In the neighbouring village to me there is a house that flies just about every country's flag at some point in the year. So on St patrick's day they fly Ireland, 14 July France etc. right down to small pacific or carribean islands. It's good fun guessing which one is flying as I go past.
Peter Oborne clearly doesn;t understand Ukippers. He thinks the tories should project the message that a vote for UKIP is a vote for the labour government.
UKippers may dislike labour and loathe the EU, but they really, really cannot abide David Cameron.
Wailing about letting labour in will only encourage them.
Twitter is full of rumours of a YouGov Euro poll with the following numbers:
UKIP 30%, Labour 25%, Con 18%, LD 8%, Green 7%.
Problem is there don't seem to be any reliable links yet to show where the information is coming from. So someone might just have made the figures up for their own amusement.
Twitter is full of rumours of a YouGov Euro poll with the following numbers:
UKIP 30%, Labour 25%, Con 18%, LD 8%, Green 7%.
Problem is there don't seem to be any reliable links yet to show where the information is coming from. So someone might just have made the figures up for their own amusement.
Not a poll, Peter Kellner's prediction of the result
Twitter is full of rumours of a YouGov Euro poll with the following numbers:
UKIP 30%, Labour 25%, Con 18%, LD 8%, Green 7%.
Problem is there don't seem to be any reliable links yet to show where the information is coming from. So someone might just have made the figures up for their own amusement.
If you honestly believe that there's some reason that you shouldn't show your face then you're daft as a brush. It's pretty hard to hold the view that daft-as-a-brusher-opinion outweighs security concerns.
I'm playing devils advocate here a bit, but to be honest we should be able to discriminate against believers in religions of one sort or another as it's a clear sign of madness.
Ipsos MORI Scotland has been commissioned by television channel STV to provide its News unit with a series of six opinion polls charting the views of Scottish voters in the run up to the independence referendum in a year’s time.
If about a third of LD voters in Clegg's constituency switch directly to Labour they'd win the seat for the first time in history, bypassing the Tories.
That's nearly a 20% swing.
Can't see it happening.
The seat is changing demographically in a Labour direction which could mean there's a bigger than average Conservative to Labour swing as well. Clegg should hold on but I think it'll be closer than people expect.
Maybe Lord Ashcroft might be tempted to conduct a constituency poll there sometime.
The LDs have held a series of council wards in local elections there since 2010. I can't see LD voters sticking with the party in local elections but then ditching them in the general, and while there has been some swing away from the LDs it's been at most half of what they'd need to lose the seat.
Joel Hills @joelhillssky 4m Vince Cable on a housing bubble: "there are already amber lights flashing, warning that history is repeating himself."
So will the Lib Dems stop Osborne, the enemy within?
You are not still trying to blow bubbles are you tim?
Vince Cable's views on the risk of a housing bubble developing were treated with more disdain by Danny Alexander than Mark Carney showed to Ed Conman:
"We are a million miles from a housing bubble" said our man Danny.
Anyway, just posting to give you what you no doubt will consider to be good news.
Rightmove published its House Price Index today. It's key findings were:
• Summer price slowdown continues as discretionary sellers are distracted by the heatwave and wait to market their properties; those not willing or able to wait for the autumn price more aggressively by asking 1.5% (-£3,704) less than last month’s sellers
• New seller numbers fall by 9% on last month, to the lowest level since February this year
• Fall in new listings and rise in search activity ‘primes the pump’ for an autumn price surge — new sellers began asking for higher prices again two weeks ago
• Rightmove raises its 2013 forecast again from 4% to 6% as supply and demand imbalance grows
Rightmove's index is based on "asking prices" rather than contract prices. As an estate agent, they are so desperate to spin house price increases that the announcement of two monthly consecutive falls in asking prices of -1.8% (August) and -1.5% (September) are being spun under a report entitled:
Rightmove predicts autumn price surge, raising 2013 forecast to +6%
Your secret is out, tim. All your bubble blowing is evidence that you are neither a Cheshire farmer not a Merseyside vintner: you are an Essex estate agent!
If about a third of LD voters in Clegg's constituency switch directly to Labour they'd win the seat for the first time in history, bypassing the Tories.
That's nearly a 20% swing.
Can't see it happening.
The seat is changing demographically in a Labour direction which could mean there's a bigger than average Conservative to Labour swing as well. Clegg should hold on but I think it'll be closer than people expect.
Maybe Lord Ashcroft might be tempted to conduct a constituency poll there sometime.
The LDs have held a series of council wards in local elections there since 2010. I can't see LD voters sticking with the party in local elections but then ditching them in the general, and while there has been some swing away from the LDs it's been at most half of what they'd need to lose the seat.
Joel Hills @joelhillssky 4m Vince Cable on a housing bubble: "there are already amber lights flashing, warning that history is repeating himself."
So will the Lib Dems stop Osborne, the enemy within?
You are not still trying to blow bubbles are you tim?
Vince Cable's views on the risk of a housing bubble developing were treated with more disdain by Danny Alexander than Mark Carney showed to Ed Conman:
"We are a million miles from a housing bubble" said our man Danny.
Anyway, just posting to give you what you no doubt will consider to be good news.
Rightmove published its House Price Index today. It's key findings were:
• Summer price slowdown continues as discretionary sellers are distracted by the heatwave and wait to market their properties; those not willing or able to wait for the autumn price more aggressively by asking 1.5% (-£3,704) less than last month’s sellers
• New seller numbers fall by 9% on last month, to the lowest level since February this year
• Fall in new listings and rise in search activity ‘primes the pump’ for an autumn price surge — new sellers began asking for higher prices again two weeks ago
• Rightmove raises its 2013 forecast again from 4% to 6% as supply and demand imbalance grows
Rightmove's index is based on "asking prices" rather than contract prices. As an estate agent, they are so desperate to spin house price increases that the announcement of two monthly consecutive falls in asking prices of -1.8% (August) and -1.5% (September) are being spun under a report entitled:
Rightmove predicts autumn price surge, raising 2013 forecast to +6%
Your secret is out, tim. All your bubble blowing is evidence that you are neither a Cheshire farmer not a Merseyside vintner: you are an Essex estate agent!
Avery, Rightmove traffic site traffic is up 20% - how can you argue with that predictive power
"Rightmove is raising its 2013 forecast again, from 4% to 6%, as high search activity .... August saw Rightmove’s traffic up more than 20% year-on-year"
Labour has seen a one-point increase over the last month in its lead over the Tories – from three to four points – showing that the coalition parties have yet to benefit from the economic recovery. Labour is on 36% (up one), the Tories are unchanged on 32% and the Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 14%. Ukip is down one point on 9%.
I wonder whether part of this of problem is the colour black. A brighter or multi coloured face uncovered body outfit would seem less threatening and austere ?
Union Jack patterned burqas would satisfy everyone.
Not in Norn Irn.
For the northern Irish market, you need something more niche:
"Tory MP Tim Loughton: Sarah Teather was a poor families minister ‘because she didn't produce one of her own’
In a speech to Conservative activists, the former minister also blames the 2011 riots on children born out of wedlock and says he will stand up to the 'ghastly regiment of feminists' in Parliament"
"Alexei Pushkov, the chairman of the Russian Duma’s Foreign Affairs committee, took to Twitter to blame the shootings on “American exceptionalism.”
In a tirade in Russian and English the hawkish MP said the shooting showed the only thing exceptional about Americans was their “animosity.”
“A new shooting at the Washington Navy Yard – one shooter and 7 bodies. No one is surprised anymore. A vivid confirmation of “American exceptionalism” he tweeted in Russian."
Clegg is not safe while the LDs poll ratings continue to lag at their lowest level since 1979. Remember Rudd recently took the ALP leadership weeks before the election to save the furniture, if the LD rating remains dire this time next year it is not impossible Cable could be parachuted in to do a similar job. Farron though clearly aims to let Clegg take the hit or Cable save the bacon so he can start afresh back in opposition
Avery, Rightmove traffic site traffic is up 20% - how can you argue with that predictive power
"Rightmove is raising its 2013 forecast again, from 4% to 6%, as high search activity .... August saw Rightmove’s traffic up more than 20% year-on-year"
In a long reply to Frank Booth over the weekend, I argued that "asking prices" and asking price based indices were likely to overstate trends in house prices in a market where mortgage credit supply is constrained.
Rightmove will be correct in stating that there is pent up demand and sales intent in the market. This is a natural outcome of five years of falls in nominal house prices, where sellers hold on to properties and let them out pending a recovery in prices and where buyers decide to rent temporarily rather than buy when there is a high risk of further price falls.
But sales inquiries (measured by Rightmove as website searches) and 'asking price' rises do not necessarily translate to increased sales and rising contract prices.
The most significant factor in market activity is mortgage credit supply, which remains severely constrained. Lending at high income multiples, to uncertified income earners and at a Loan To Value above 75% has plummeted since 2007. Hence the targetting of Help to Buy at buyers who do not have the 25% of capital needed to 'get on the ladder'.
All the above has reduced housing market transactions to less than 40% of the volumes recorded in 2007. And over the past five years total mortgage loans outstanding have increased at considerably less than 1% per year. See: http://cf.datawrapper.de/AcVho/2/
For Rightmove, and all estate agents, building confidence and maintaining interest is vital for market recovery. Their aim is to convert price ramping into real price rises and increased sales volume.
It does appear that house prices may have bottomed out in most areas of the country and in London they have definitely been rising, but we should not believe all the hype engendered by 'asking price' indices rising to levels well above inflation. Let's keep our eyes fixed on indices, like the ONS index, which are based on HM Registry contract prices and a weighted mix of property types.
"The poll found that 56% of Lib Dems would prefer to form a coalition with Labour compared with 22% who would like to continue in government with the Tories if no party wins an overall majority at the next election."
And bad news for Sam n Dave
"The poll found overwhelming opposition to any British involvement in military action in Syria. It found that 69% of voters would oppose a British role in strikes against Syria if Damascus fails to hand over chemical weapons."
It's all academic anyway as Ed said he won't work in coalition with Cleggy
AveryLP Earlier thread, both Heath and Major won an election with a majority, something Cameron has yet to achieve, and Heath was chosen to provide a contrast with the upper class Home who had just lost as an Etonian despite 2 previous Etonian victories by Macmillan and Eden and a Harrovian Churchill
why does tim..aka The Cheshire farmer...aka the offie worker in Livepool ,persist in stating that the PM's wife wants missile strilkes in Syria.. The man is a f*****g i***t
Wilson was state educated too and ushered in the state school PM era, when he beat Home, Gaitskill was a Wykehamist, Attlee went to Haileybury (although Lloyd-George, Bonar Law and Macdonald had also been state educated, it was only after Wilson it became a regular occurance
Interesting that senior LibDems seem remarkably cool about the idea of a coalition with Labour; you'd have thought that they'd be talking up the possibility, in order to show equidistance, not be seen as Tory poodles, to increase their bargaining power, and to lure back some Labour-leaning waverers.
I suspect the explanation for this rather unexpected development is the obvious one: that they are frightened that a Miliband-led government would collapse into chaos, and therefore are wary of being part of it. If so, it means they are thinking ahead.
CNN 2016 GOP nomination Chris Christie 17% Paul Ryan 16% Rand Paul 13% Jeb Bush 10% Marco Rubio 9% Ted Cruz 7% Rick Perry 6% Rick Santorum 5% Someone else (vol.) 6% None/No one (vol.) 4% No opinion 6%
"The poll found that 56% of Lib Dems would prefer to form a coalition with Labour compared with 22% who would like to continue in government with the Tories if no party wins an overall majority at the next election."
What about the percentage of lib dems who would much prefer to be out of government, and wail 'not in my name' from the sidelines at every difficult decision....???
What about the percentage of lib dems who would much prefer to be out of government, and wail 'not in my name' from the sidelines at every difficult decision....???
Presumably they voted alongside the tory backbenchers who humiliated Tiny Blair Cameron during his incompetent Syria vote.
We can all pick selective figures, especially as that particular ICM is likely to be an outlier. Personally I think the summer starts earlier than mid July. If we take the May ICM
lab -1 Con +4
The average lead across all pollsters has fallen from about 9% at the beginning of May to about 5.5% now.
AveryLP Earlier thread, both Heath and Major won an election with a majority, something Cameron has yet to achieve, and Heath was chosen to provide a contrast with the upper class Home who had just lost as an Etonian despite 2 previous Etonian victories by Macmillan and Eden and a Harrovian Churchill
Nineteen PMs from Eton and seven from Harrow. Clever PB punters should be looking for an Old Harrovian to take over from Dave.
The important goal is to become PM. Winning a majority is occasionally a vulgar necessity. Cameron adroitly managed to gain office without sullying himself.
AveryLP Indeed, my father went to Harrow (my only connection to Eton is a great-uncle who taught guitar there). Harrow also produced some good PMs, Pitt, Palmerston, Baldwin, along with Churchill, though still a bit behind Eton. Unfortunately, I don't think there is an Old Harrovian in this parliament for the first time in a while, so Dave may need to hang on a bit
What's that musical term which means "repeat until the end of time"? You could put that in the pb comments thread, after about eight comments, and save a lot of bandwidth.
Pretty good ICM for the Tories, suggesting that 3 point Labour lead wasn't an outlier after all.
Richard.
Watching the progress of the Tories is like following the long distance race tactics of Mo Farrah.
Always in touch to the final lap then takes all races and competitors in a sprint to the line.
Seems to work everywhere except in the far North.
Avery you do realise Mo lost at the weekend as his sprint failed ? Nice to see you're on the ball.
Mr. Brooke.
Is it raining in Warwickshire?
Why do you think I referred to the "far North"?
The far North is Scotland, somewhere about Inverness. I would suggest you either improve your english or your geography. I put it down to the weaknesses in your education establishments myself.
John Mccririck is an Old Harrovian and a staunch Thatcherite, he is looking for a new job after being axed by C4, he is a populist with the common touch and just the man to win back the UKIP vote. Any odds on Big John for PM?
AveryLP Indeed, my father went to Harrow (my only connection to Eton is a great-uncle who taught guitar there). Harrow also produced some good PMs, Pitt, Palmerston, Baldwin, along with Churchill, though still a bit behind Eton. Unfortunately, I don't think there is an Old Harrovian in this parliament for the first time in a while, so Dave may need to hang on a bit
Grandfather (maternal) and all his brothers (six great uncles) and their male progeny and great grandfather all Harrovians.
Indeed I was down to go myself until a year before entry.
AveryLP Indeed, my father went to Harrow (my only connection to Eton is a great-uncle who taught guitar there). Harrow also produced some good PMs, Pitt, Palmerston, Baldwin, along with Churchill, though still a bit behind Eton. Unfortunately, I don't think there is an Old Harrovian in this parliament for the first time in a while, so Dave may need to hang on a bit
I bring you hope. Guy Opperman, MP for Hexham since 2010, is an old Harrovian.
Pretty good ICM for the Tories, suggesting that 3 point Labour lead wasn't an outlier after all.
Richard.
Watching the progress of the Tories is like following the long distance race tactics of Mo Farrah.
Always in touch to the final lap then takes all races and competitors in a sprint to the line.
Seems to work everywhere except in the far North.
Avery you do realise Mo lost at the weekend as his sprint failed ? Nice to see you're on the ball.
Mr. Brooke.
Is it raining in Warwickshire?
Why do you think I referred to the "far North"?
The far North is Scotland, somewhere about Inverness. I would suggest you either improve your english or your geography. I put it down to the weaknesses in your education establishments myself.
Mo Farrah may have lost because he took a wrong turn in the "Great North Run", Mr. Brooke.
John Mccririck is an Old Harrovian and a staunch Thatcherite, he is looking for a new job after being axed by C4, he is a populist with the common touch and just the man to win back the UKIP vote. Any odds on Big John for PM?
Bizarrely, he got on famously with Germaine Greer in the Big Brother house - proving he can work with colleagues of all political stripes.
John Mccririck is an Old Harrovian and a staunch Thatcherite, he is looking for a new job after being axed by C4, he is a populist with the common touch and just the man to win back the UKIP vote. Any odds on Big John for PM?
The Booby would make a great 'first lady'.
I bet she wouldn't want us to bomb the poor Syrians.
Pretty good ICM for the Tories, suggesting that 3 point Labour lead wasn't an outlier after all.
Richard.
Watching the progress of the Tories is like following the long distance race tactics of Mo Farrah.
Always in touch to the final lap then takes all races and competitors in a sprint to the line.
Seems to work everywhere except in the far North.
Avery you do realise Mo lost at the weekend as his sprint failed ? Nice to see you're on the ball.
Mr. Brooke.
Is it raining in Warwickshire?
Why do you think I referred to the "far North"?
The far North is Scotland, somewhere about Inverness. I would suggest you either improve your english or your geography. I put it down to the weaknesses in your education establishments myself.
Mo Farrah may have lost because he took a wrong turn in the "Great North Run", Mr. Brooke.
As ever your SE Tory roots betray you, the island runs right up to John O Groats not Gateshead. Perhaps if Mr Cameron was to have a visit to his ancestors he could discover there are voters outside the Home Counties, on that basis he could even hope to win an election.
It remains to be seen if the call in the last few days by the de-facto Al Qaeda leader Al Zawahiri for an attack inside the USA is significant. That old bollocks, however, has form.
AveryLP Indeed, my father went to Harrow (my only connection to Eton is a great-uncle who taught guitar there). Harrow also produced some good PMs, Pitt, Palmerston, Baldwin, along with Churchill, though still a bit behind Eton. Unfortunately, I don't think there is an Old Harrovian in this parliament for the first time in a while, so Dave may need to hang on a bit
I bring you hope. Guy Opperman, MP for Hexham since 2010, is an old Harrovian.
Avery LP Sounds like a good family line which you narrowly missed continuing
My prep school closed a year before I was due to leave and Harrow wouldn't accept entry at 12 years old nor would they allow a boy in their first year to take a scholarship exam.
Marlborough offered both and my parents switched.
Though the story goes my prep-school Headmaster warned my parents off sending me to a school which was "located close to the flesh-pots of central London".
Comments
ICM asked people which party they would like the Lib Dems to choose as a coalition partner if no party wins an outright majority in 2015.
Amongst all voters, there was a clear preference for Labour. These are the overall figures.
Labour: 37%
Conservatives: 29%
But amongst Lib Dem supporters (people saying they would vote Lib Dem now) people favour Labour by more than 2 to 1.
Labour: 56%
Conservatives: 22%
The figures come from the latest poll that ICM has conducted for the Guardian. The full findings will be published on our website later this afternoon.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/16/lib-dem-conference-vince-cables-speech-economy-debate-and-clegg-qa-politics-live-blog#block-523705d8e4b087760a08a729
Can't see it happening.
Team Clegg said they had no idea where that idea came from. How quickly they forget...
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2207618/Lib-Dem-conference-2012-Nick-Clegg-wants-hit-millions-earning-50k-higher-tax-bills.html#ixzz2f4dgtV8r
Who shafted Paddy A?
Who shafted David Steele?
Who shafted Jeremy Thorpe?
Who shafted Charlie K?
Who shafted Ming C?
Who shafted Lib / LibDems at every opportunity?
Who shafted LibDems by making a genuine offer?
The answer to all the above bar one are Lab or Lib.
Maybe Lord Ashcroft might be tempted to conduct a constituency poll there sometime.
If the Lib Dems form a coalition with Labour next time, the first thing they will have to do is vote through a budget reversing all the austerity they endured for 5 years.
It will make tuition fees look like a resounding triumph by comparison
But Jack Straw....
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/archive/2333595.stm
and
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/10459/jack-straw-must-come-clean-about-his-role-in-the-jeremy-thorpe-scandal/
"Sheffield Hallam must be one of the most sophisticated electorates in the country. It figures in the lists of the top ten seats in Britain for professional and managerial workers, numbers of students and of 18 year olds in higher education, and those with higher educational qualifications. Nearly 80% of those in work here are in middle-class occupations.
South-western Sheffield, from the bohemian university area of Broomhill through Ecclesall and Fulwood out to the fringe of hte Peak District at Dore and Totley, is a leafy neighbourhood of outstanding residential quality. There are many dark-stone mansions standing solidly among the wooded hills, and only some of them are now broken up into flats and bed-sits. Further out can be found modern semis and detached houses in great numbers as Sheffield's professional and managerial groupings gather together in as concentrated a pattern of residential segregation as may be found in Britain."
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=oLGpTZB2_w4C&printsec=frontcover&dq=almanac+of+british+politics&hl=en&sa=X&ei=EDc3UsmJBMaHhQeB9IDABA&ved=0CCQQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=hallam&f=false
In 2010 the Labour vote declined by only 1.7% compared to 6.5% nationally, despite the fact that they had no chance of winning and that the seat was mainly a LD/Conservative battle.
In fact their absolute number of votes went up, from 8,160 to 8,228:
http://election.pressassociation.com/constituencies.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/d96.stm
http://www.welt.de/
UKippers may dislike labour and loathe the EU, but they really, really cannot abide David Cameron.
Wailing about letting labour in will only encourage them.
UKIP 30%, Labour 25%, Con 18%, LD 8%, Green 7%.
Problem is there don't seem to be any reliable links yet to show where the information is coming from. So someone might just have made the figures up for their own amusement.
If you honestly believe that there's some reason that you shouldn't show your face then you're daft as a brush. It's pretty hard to hold the view that daft-as-a-brusher-opinion outweighs security concerns.
I'm playing devils advocate here a bit, but to be honest we should be able to discriminate against believers in religions of one sort or another as it's a clear sign of madness.
Ipsos MORI Scotland has been commissioned by television channel STV to provide its News unit with a series of six opinion polls charting the views of Scottish voters in the run up to the independence referendum in a year’s time.
http://www.mrweb.com/drno/news17884.htm
Vince Cable's views on the risk of a housing bubble developing were treated with more disdain by Danny Alexander than Mark Carney showed to Ed Conman:
"We are a million miles from a housing bubble" said our man Danny.
Anyway, just posting to give you what you no doubt will consider to be good news.
Rightmove published its House Price Index today. It's key findings were:
• Summer price slowdown continues as discretionary sellers are distracted by the heatwave and wait to market their properties; those not willing or able to wait for the autumn price more aggressively by asking 1.5% (-£3,704) less than last month’s sellers
• New seller numbers fall by 9% on last month, to the lowest level since February this year
• Fall in new listings and rise in search activity ‘primes the pump’ for an autumn price surge — new sellers began asking for higher prices again two weeks ago
• Rightmove raises its 2013 forecast again from 4% to 6% as supply and demand imbalance grows
Rightmove's index is based on "asking prices" rather than contract prices. As an estate agent, they are so desperate to spin house price increases that the announcement of two monthly consecutive falls in asking prices of -1.8% (August) and -1.5% (September) are being spun under a report entitled:
Rightmove predicts autumn price surge, raising 2013 forecast to +6%
Your secret is out, tim. All your bubble blowing is evidence that you are neither a Cheshire farmer not a Merseyside vintner: you are an Essex estate agent!
Or a closet west ham fan?
Avery, Rightmove traffic site traffic is up 20% - how can you argue with that predictive power
"Rightmove is raising its 2013 forecast again, from 4% to 6%, as high search activity .... August saw Rightmove’s traffic up more than 20% year-on-year"
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/overview-7
Labour has seen a one-point increase over the last month in its lead over the Tories – from three to four points – showing that the coalition parties have yet to benefit from the economic recovery. Labour is on 36% (up one), the Tories are unchanged on 32% and the Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 14%. Ukip is down one point on 9%.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/16/voters-confident-economy-guardian-icm-poll
This believe this edit is consistent with your findings, taffys.
Is it true that Vince Cable represents Twickenham? He really is determined to scr8w his constituents any way he can, isn;t he?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-tim-loughton-sarah-teather-was-a-poor-families-minister-because-she-didnt-produce-one-of-her-own-8820197.html
"Tory MP Tim Loughton: Sarah Teather was a poor families minister ‘because she didn't produce one of her own’
In a speech to Conservative activists, the former minister also blames the 2011 riots on children born out of wedlock and says he will stand up to the 'ghastly regiment of feminists' in Parliament"
Lab minus 5
Con plus 1
LD no change
UKIP plus 3
In a tirade in Russian and English the hawkish MP said the shooting showed the only thing exceptional about Americans was their “animosity.”
“A new shooting at the Washington Navy Yard – one shooter and 7 bodies. No one is surprised anymore. A vivid confirmation of “American exceptionalism” he tweeted in Russian."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10312816/Washington-Navy-yard-shooting-live.html
Tory ceiling 42
Labour ceiling 44
LibDem ceiling 25
UKIP ceiling 25
Others ceiling 10
so the question is, how close can they get to the ceiling.
Lab nc
Con +3
LD + 2
UKIP -3
Gower (AWS): November 2
Greenwich and Woolwich (Open): November 30
Avery, Rightmove traffic site traffic is up 20% - how can you argue with that predictive power
"Rightmove is raising its 2013 forecast again, from 4% to 6%, as high search activity .... August saw Rightmove’s traffic up more than 20% year-on-year"
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/overview-7
In a long reply to Frank Booth over the weekend, I argued that "asking prices" and asking price based indices were likely to overstate trends in house prices in a market where mortgage credit supply is constrained.
Rightmove will be correct in stating that there is pent up demand and sales intent in the market. This is a natural outcome of five years of falls in nominal house prices, where sellers hold on to properties and let them out pending a recovery in prices and where buyers decide to rent temporarily rather than buy when there is a high risk of further price falls.
But sales inquiries (measured by Rightmove as website searches) and 'asking price' rises do not necessarily translate to increased sales and rising contract prices.
The most significant factor in market activity is mortgage credit supply, which remains severely constrained. Lending at high income multiples, to uncertified income earners and at a Loan To Value above 75% has plummeted since 2007. Hence the targetting of Help to Buy at buyers who do not have the 25% of capital needed to 'get on the ladder'.
All the above has reduced housing market transactions to less than 40% of the volumes recorded in 2007. And over the past five years total mortgage loans outstanding have increased at considerably less than 1% per year. See: http://cf.datawrapper.de/AcVho/2/
For Rightmove, and all estate agents, building confidence and maintaining interest is vital for market recovery. Their aim is to convert price ramping into real price rises and increased sales volume.
It does appear that house prices may have bottomed out in most areas of the country and in London they have definitely been rising, but we should not believe all the hype engendered by 'asking price' indices rising to levels well above inflation. Let's keep our eyes fixed on indices, like the ONS index, which are based on HM Registry contract prices and a weighted mix of property types.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11016944
Or is he now agreeing with Nick as well as George ?
The man is a f*****g i***t
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10311469/Jeremy-Browne-Ban-Muslim-women-from-wearing-veils-in-schools-and-public-places.html
Watching the progress of the Tories is like following the long distance race tactics of Mo Farrah.
Always in touch to the final lap then takes all races and competitors in a sprint to the line.
Seems to work everywhere except in the far North.
I suspect the explanation for this rather unexpected development is the obvious one: that they are frightened that a Miliband-led government would collapse into chaos, and therefore are wary of being part of it. If so, it means they are thinking ahead.
Thanks for these.
Chris Christie 17%
Paul Ryan 16%
Rand Paul 13%
Jeb Bush 10%
Marco Rubio 9%
Ted Cruz 7%
Rick Perry 6%
Rick Santorum 5%
Someone else (vol.) 6%
None/No one (vol.) 4%
No opinion 6%
What about the percentage of lib dems who would much prefer to be out of government, and wail 'not in my name' from the sidelines at every difficult decision....???
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-16/senior-female-coalition-figures-slam-male-dominated-cabinet/4961344
lab -1
Con +4
The average lead across all pollsters has fallen from about 9% at the beginning of May to about 5.5% now.
The important goal is to become PM. Winning a majority is occasionally a vulgar necessity. Cameron adroitly managed to gain office without sullying himself.
Lab =
Con =
LD =
UKIP =
More soon...
Is it raining in Warwickshire?
Why do you think I referred to the "far North"?
Translates to English as obstinate.
Perhaps we should recoin for PB as Obstinato.
Do we have the uncooked ICM numbers? (Without the Spiral of Shame thing)
Not saying the headline figures are wrong, would just be keen to see the raw numbers.
Indeed I was down to go myself until a year before entry.
Last month's pre spiral of silence of numbers were
Con 32
Lab 37
LD 12
UKIP 11
So I'd expect something similar this month
I bet she wouldn't want us to bomb the poor Syrians.
If Clegg was annoyed with Cable last night, he should have a lie down in dark room now Vince says coalition cd collapse and he might quit
It remains to be seen if the call in the last few days by the de-facto Al Qaeda leader Al Zawahiri for an attack inside the USA is significant. That old bollocks, however, has form.
That is somewhere in the Midlands isn't it, John?
Suddenly quite a few celebs are being touted as potential MP runners. Everybody fancies a go. Wonder how many will make it to the start line.
A Plunkett
An Ernle
An Erle, and,
A Drax
A good way for Harrow to narrow the gap with Eton.
Marlborough offered both and my parents switched.
Though the story goes my prep-school Headmaster warned my parents off sending me to a school which was "located close to the flesh-pots of central London".