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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lib Dems are in no mood to change their leader
If there was going to be a threat to Nick Clegg’s leadership at the annual conference in Glasgow it was going to come in this morning’s debate on economic strategy.
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http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/1744492/Next-Government.html
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/09/14/william-hill-makes-it-9-1-that-ge2015-will-lead-to-a-second-con-ld-coalition/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
"Whether the public believe Mr Cameron will become apparent in next year's European elections. He said: "We need to see if the public do begin to trust that the Conservative Party are serious about a referendum." If not, a vote before the 2015 election will be necessary, he said."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/10309785/Tory-MP-calls-for-EU-referendum-now-saying-public-do-not-trust-Cameron.html
According to many Conservative MPs , we have a Lib Dem dominated government , you and they cannot both be correct but you can both be wrong .
I have been saying for the last 2 years that Clegg will be leader of the Lib Dems at the next GE .
We can't go back and redo the economic experiment. In the meantime the figures are looking cautiously positive. I daresay Avery'll be here soon with reams of yellow screen.
Going back to 2010, what alternative did Clegg have that would have worked better in the national interest?
Of course it's true that, as yet, there's not much comfort in the polls for the LibDems, and it remains to be seen whether the current sharper and more sensible message will indeed be welcomed by voters. However, at least the message is now coherent (the leaked 'lines to take' make good sense), which is an absolutely necessary first step.
We are rapidly reachig the point where we will be issued with credit vouchers no pay..no cash..just vouchers.
When will these bufffoons ever learn.
Though I did like his joke that he'd be considered a Young Conservative if he joined the Tory party today
But the same can be said for any single political party - they all have loudmouths and malcontents in them.
The way they've acted in coalition has made me more likely to vote Lib Dem, not less. Now, if only they could do something about the nuttier side of their party (Hancock, Ward etc), I'd be much more inclined to vote for them ...
A tipster has a ROI from Dec 2010 of +13.9%. They have a 2013 ROI of 22.6%.
3 bets are advised as follows:
1 pt E/W @ 7/2, 1 pt E/W at 6/1, 0.5 pt E/W @ 10/1
However only 3/1, 11/2 and 9/1 are available.
Should the bets be taken ?
Cable said red lights were flashing on economy in the Guardian interview Friday. Now they are only amber. Economy on the mend ?
Otherwise you're just saying London house prices are rising. Well we knew that.
Pissing it down, again.
FPT: Mr. Eagles, the Daily Mash is a fine paper but years behind the modern thinking of Morris Dancer!
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/singapore-early-discussion.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyX75NpibdU
Sorry, but my ESB is playing-up. Music calms....
:eek:
"English Settlement, 1982": If only innit!
So if it's just house prices that you're concerned about (and it's a valid concern) then you rule yourself out of supporting the main three parties and perhaps should start thinking about your own party. The "Let's get House Prices back to 1981-Levels Party".
tim could formulate your economic policies.
Oh and good luck.
Selection 1: 3.23/1 Win, 0.713/1 Place (Bookie pays 1/5th for place);
High on a Hill: 5.13/1 ; Place 1.42/1 (Bookie pays 1/4 for place)
Ingleby Star: 6.65/1 ; Place 1.634/1
Con 306 .. LD 57 = Con led Coalition with clear overall majority = stable government for 5 years.
http://www.judiciary.gov.uk/Resources/JCO/Documents/Judgments/The%20Queen%20-v-%20D%20(R).pdf
The reasoning seems generally fair and non-bonkers, but the result is a bit unfortunate: She only has to show her face if she gives evidence, which she can decline to do. It doesn't seem like a good thing to have rules that will discourage people from giving evidence.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23961842
We have developed a rather curious idea that something 'historic' is set sometime in the 1930-70 period, when conservation legislation started appearing alongside a fascination with our heritage. In reality, many of the structures altered over time, a process that stopped unnaturally with listing.
Instead we should allow careful redevelopment and alterations. Keep the best in aspic, and make the rest work better. Let people in 200 years ' time read a structure that has been used and lived in for centuries.
An unused ruin costs money to maintain. A home is at least a home.
And if the rules change, can I have first dibs on New Slains Castle?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Slains_Castle
I am in Germany today and the only posters and billboards I have seen have been for The Pirate Party.
Make of that what you will
I'm sure the Tories will start telling people when the time comes and the story is obvious (after the euro elections when UKIP finish top)
I would take little comfort from marginal polls. Before the 2010 GE political betting was full of different sophisticated methods of forecasting number of seats. The actual results showed that Uniform National Swing was closest to actual results.
Because they arrr!
LIBLABCON LIBLABCON LIBLABCON !!
In Nippon there is less of a problem, no? As Gin posited there is an element [of naqibists] that think that they are above the law*: All should be equal but you spin "Eight" when we can see it is a dismal "Five".
So 'breathe':
Think about were you are and how you are (just as I do). What ever you do don't pretend that you are a front-line reporter! Sir, you are a cad....
* Along with "tick-boxes" that support FGM and the culling of the female-fetus....
***** BETTING POST *****
"YouGov President Peter Kellner predicts that UKIP will come first in the 2014 EU elections on 30%, Labour 25%, Con 18%, LD 8%"
Assuming Kellner knows what he's talking about (and one has to believe he does), his forecast of the share of the vote in next year's Euro elections appears to present punters with an attractive betting opportunity, bearing in mind that those nice people at Ladbrokes are offering odds of 5/4 against UKIP, that's a whopping 37.5% better than Hills' odds-on price of 10/11.
Those of a nervous disposition might wish to consider a combination bet instead, placing 56.1% of their stake on this bet with Ladbrokes and placing the remaining 43.9% of their stake with those nice people at Hills on Labour collecting the most votes at odds of 15/8.
According to my bead frame, whichever of these parties wins would deliver a profit of 26.3% on the combined amount staked - not a bad return over a period of 7.5 months.
As ever, do your own research.
The idea that he has gone rogue or is doing this purely off his own bat are wide of the mark IMO.
Looks like part of plan to me.
::Innocent face::
Whatever you do, don't google "Angry pirate"
Didn't spot any "EUSSR's" though, which was disappointing...
Certainly the GDP figures are currently looking much better than they have done for six years or so, but given that they have been a lot worse than forecast, would that not mean the agenda had failed?
In 2010 I said that I would judge the Coalition's handling of the economy on four metrics. This is how I think the Coalition are doing.
1. Debt - mixed. Private debt is down by one quarter. Corporate debt is down [I think, on the basis of press reports]. Osborne will miss his planned debt targets.
2. Trade - poor. At best the trade deficit has remained static, but it's possible that it is widening slightly.
3. Unemployment - surprisingly good. We have certainly avoided the worst when you look across at the Eurozone. Unfortunately, this seems to have occurred at least partly because businesses are substituting cheap labour for investment in improving productivity.
4. Standard of Living - not as bad as it looks. A simple comparison of average earnings and inflation looks dire, but Osborne's tax changes have meant that most people have seen their real income after tax increase. Unfortunately, there's a limit to how long the government can subsidise low pay by cutting taxes when it is running a massive deficit.
I don't see a decisive shift in the nation's fortunes here, and it is a long way from the success of Osborne's stated economic agenda. Certainly the picture is more nuanced than if you had spent the last few years simply following the quarterly GDP figures - which have been affected by the decline in North Sea Oil output - but the fundamentals are pretty weak, and some of the good news looks to be based on temporary measures that cannot persist indefinitely.
I dislike banning things, but I'm also pretty uncomfortable about the niqab and burkha. I'm even more displeased by the intimidation planned which prompted a university to change its policy (reminded me of Lord Ahmed's promise to summon 10,000 angry Muslims if Geert Wilders was allowed to show Fitna) and the tyranny of the minority on display (typically through the line "It's my religion, so there").
And 2013 was always going to be a dead year in politics for the Coalition, pretty much. Heads down, try not to do anything too crap, look like you want the job, and let Ed get on with showing his credentials as PM in waiting (snigger!). Which is the very reason UKIP has been able to rise in 2013 - people could toy with it because nothing much mattered.
2013 is more important for Labour, in that it should have been the year that they started to unveil their leader and their policies. So far, nothing. On either score.
http://falkvinge.net/2013/05/01/swarmwise-the-tactical-manual-to-changing-the-world-chapter-four/
(Scroll down to the bit about scaling out.)
Whether it'll translate into votes is a different question though. I don't see why the opinion polls shouldn't be picking it up, unless there's a prompting issue or something.
Is the most futile thing in God's Great Earth winding-up Wodger? The sad sack really is - erm, what is the word - Soho-trash. Another day: &c....
:what-you-reap-you-stupid-mong-will-be-spammed-innit:
The first is naturally that this combination will show about a 15 ROI% (which is a natural assumption if you take tips).
The second is that the ROI is consistent across the three component parts - that the expected return as tipped doesn't come from bet 1 being great value and the other two being less good value for example.
The definition of 'worked' will depend on your outlook. But I'm generally positive - the miracle of the last recession was that unemployment figures did not increase as much as some were predicting (*). There'll be plenty of studies of why that happened in the UK, when other European countries had shockingly high unemployment levels. Low wages will be one factor, however I'd be much more interested in the shifting workforce demographic.
But on the whole, things feel much better than the doomtellers were predicting two years ago. Although Balls' predictions are a very low baseline to work from ...
(*) It's still a personal tragedy for those looking for work.
There never was or we would have been hearing briefings to the press from his loyal lib dem ministers of the same type Clegg made when he happily stabbed Ming Campbell in the back.
Nobody wants to take Clegg's place as the coalition shit magnet this far out from the election quite obviously.
So Clegg's ostrich faction have to spin and bear it till next year by creating these amusing 'victories' out of Clegg not being toppled quite yet. While those who have an eye on replacing him put markers down for when they feel it is safer and less toxic to take over.
Their problem is that Clegg's toxicity will only taint the lib dem brand ever more the longer he is there. The polls and the hammerings the lib dem base and membership are taking year on year are quite real.
Clegg's recent cosying up to Cammie and the tories, instead of keeping equidistance, is yet more of the strategic 'genius' that saw him fail miserably on voting reform and house of lords reform. If Clegg and his bubble people really are deranged enough to think there is room for another centre right leaning party at the next election (alongside UKIP and the tories) then those lib dems who are putting up with him right now, because they think things can't get any worse, are going to be in for a shock.
Plan B was a coalition Govt, with a Labour Party having either Gordon Brown or a caretaker until September 2010 then replaced by (as history shows) Ed Miliband- and with Balls as Chancellor. It is not a giant leap to believe that was not in the national interest. For not allowing Plan B to occur, the nation should indeed consider its best interests were served by Clegg.
Plan C was bumbling along with no overall control, until another election in probably October 2010. With Ed Miliband on offer and the Clegg-asm having greatly subsided, quite possibly it was delivering a slim Tory majority this time. If you believe Clegg at this week's conference, he does not think the national interest would have been best served by a majority Tory Party in power able to implement full-strength austerity.
So, short of persuading 150 Tories to cross over to the LibDems to even up the numbers, there is your explanation.
Didn't quite work out that way.
Edited extra bit: ahem, I'm not equating Miliband to Hitler, obviously. The example above is just to prove that things often don't go as intended and that wishing victory for your enemies is unwise.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 3m
Vince Cable now 6/1 joint favourite to be next cabinet minister out
What else could Clegg have done?
Meanwhile, another day, another grown up policy decision. The protest party grows up.
The comparison with Labour will be interesting.....
In gratitude, he can have Nigel Farage put on Britain's 100 Euro note....
"Nigel Farage - the man who made all this possible..."
Only gullible fools and inept comedy spinners fall for this 'national interest' bullshit spin.
You can be 100% certain that if, say, Clegg had stood firm on PR instead of AV, and Cammie couldn't get that past his backbenches resulting in confidence and supply, then that would have been spun as in the 'national interest' and the only responsible course of action etc.
If the negotiations had went any other way for any other reason and a minority administration was found to be the only workable solution, then that would have been spun as in the national interest and the only responsible course of action etc.
You can also be certain that both parties had their spin prepared just in case any of the other options were the ones taken or things went south in the negotiations. We actually saw a glimpse of that when it looked for a brief time like the lib dems were thinking again and considering some imaginary offer from labour to try and push for more concessions from Cameron. (a tactic which failed unsurprisingly)
Cable's chances of becoming Leader are better in the short term than medium term due to his age.
The next dangerous time for Clegg is a near wipe out at the EC elections next year. The system of voting creates a series of seats that could fall if their vote only moves down by just 5 percentage points. The difference between 11 MEPs or 2 hinges on that small change. Beware an old man in a hurry Mr Clegg.
Only gullible fools and inept comedy spinners fall for this 'national interest' bullshit spin"
Well that's the SNP manifesto rubbished.
I thought you righties were libertarian? How far do you want to go? Is it just the Muslim veil that upsets you? What about cyclists wearing bandanas when its cold? Children wrapped up in snorkel parkas in winter, you banning them? Teenage lads in hoodies?
I hear an amazing argument that people feel intimidated by veiled women in public, it's alien, not pleasant to look at, not part of our culture. There are plenty of things I find disturbing to look at on the streets, but Muslim women ain't one of 'em.
Worth noting though that hoodies are banned in certain public places, as are crash helmets in banks etc...
Yes Farron has a better chance against Cable if the contest is after the GE than before it. So staying loyal and delaying a contest helps Farron.
Re: Mark Senior, I am not saying Clegg is doomed, just that events arising from the EC elections could unseat him.
Anyone wishing to end his career would regret it as much as the Senate plotters that stabbed Caesar in the back, front and side.