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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ORB Brexit tracker continues to oscillate between free tra

SystemSystem Posts: 12,256
edited March 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ORB Brexit tracker continues to oscillate between free trade and immigration

By 45% to 41% latest ORB poll finds voters thinking access to free trade more important than immigration pic.twitter.com/XeuLJHe2EX

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    First, like Leave.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited March 2018
    2nd, like the importance of restricting immigration
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited March 2018
    Mine has been eaten by vanilla

    Is the continued closeness of this result due to the respondents not having the knowledge to make an informed choice? As such a close result is likely.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited March 2018
    3rd like Don't know

    EDIT: philiph has got in there and spoiled my frankly hiliarious comment :disappointed:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,806
    philiph said:

    Mine has been eaten by vanilla

    Is the continued closeness of this result due to the respondents not having the knowledge to make an informed choice? As such a close result is likely.

    Do any of us really have the knowledge to make an informed choice on most things? We all do the best we can and trust sheer numbers will see a generally acceptable option gets picked.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,331
    https://twitter.com/GroomB/status/971497217671548928
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,331
    philiph said:

    Mine has been eaten by vanilla

    Is the continued closeness of this result due to the respondents not having the knowledge to make an informed choice? As such a close result is likely.

    Vanilla ate two of my comments.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,857
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Benpointer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Danny565 said:

    The one bit about the Corbyn story that makes me raise my eyebrows is that he apparently posted a comment in a thread where other people were using the term "Zios".

    Admittedly "Zio" or "Zionist" are not in themselves anti-Semitic, but the people who use the terms almost invariably are.

    I’d struggle to see how Zio could be used in a non-anti-Semitic way.
    Zio is a new one on me. Is Zionist a derogative term?
    Zio is to Zionist as Paki is to Pakistani.
    Ahhhh... so it's a way of referring to people who look vaguely like Zionists, but are not - actually - Zionists.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,331
    https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/971497483611328512
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    philiph said:

    Mine has been eaten by vanilla

    Is the continued closeness of this result due to the respondents not having the knowledge to make an informed choice? As such a close result is likely.

    If that were the case Don't Know should be ahead :smile:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    philiph said:

    Mine has been eaten by vanilla

    Is the continued closeness of this result due to the respondents not having the knowledge to make an informed choice? As such a close result is likely.

    Vanilla ate two of my comments.
    You should have posted your "First" on here before posting NEW THREAD on the prev thread :wink:
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Benpointer said:

    3rd like Don't know

    EDIT: philiph has got in there and spoiled my frankly hiliarious comment :disappointed:

    I had to wait for you and then get my timing perfect to bump you out of bronze plane into the also rans.
    Have to make sure I'm available for drug testing after that performance. I don't want a ban.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,331
    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    philiph said:

    Mine has been eaten by vanilla

    Is the continued closeness of this result due to the respondents not having the knowledge to make an informed choice? As such a close result is likely.

    Vanilla ate two of my comments.
    You should have posted your "First" on here before posting NEW THREAD on the prev thread :wink:
    People get upset when I get the first on a new thread.

    They think it is the equivalent of insider trading.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,806
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    philiph said:

    Mine has been eaten by vanilla

    Is the continued closeness of this result due to the respondents not having the knowledge to make an informed choice? As such a close result is likely.

    Vanilla ate two of my comments.
    You should have posted your "First" on here before posting NEW THREAD on the prev thread :wink:
    People get upset when I get the first on a new thread.

    They think it is the equivalent of insider trading.
    You can do one but not the other I think.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    philiph said:

    Mine has been eaten by vanilla

    Is the continued closeness of this result due to the respondents not having the knowledge to make an informed choice? As such a close result is likely.

    Vanilla ate two of my comments.
    You should have posted your "First" on here before posting NEW THREAD on the prev thread :wink:
    People get upset when I get the first on a new thread.

    They think it is the equivalent of insider trading.
    Fair point. And they'd be right :smile:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited March 2018
    philiph said:

    Benpointer said:

    3rd like Don't know

    EDIT: philiph has got in there and spoiled my frankly hiliarious comment :disappointed:

    I had to wait for you and then get my timing perfect to bump you out of bronze plane into the also rans.
    Have to make sure I'm available for drug testing after that performance. I don't want a ban.

    It may take me a few threads to get over this - I know how Elise Christie feels :disappointed:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,258
    FPT
    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,331
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    philiph said:

    Mine has been eaten by vanilla

    Is the continued closeness of this result due to the respondents not having the knowledge to make an informed choice? As such a close result is likely.

    Vanilla ate two of my comments.
    You should have posted your "First" on here before posting NEW THREAD on the prev thread :wink:
    People get upset when I get the first on a new thread.

    They think it is the equivalent of insider trading.
    You can do one but not the other I think.
    You can only do it on the overnight thread, but I'm in bed at that time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,331
    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Benpointer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    philiph said:

    Mine has been eaten by vanilla

    Is the continued closeness of this result due to the respondents not having the knowledge to make an informed choice? As such a close result is likely.

    Vanilla ate two of my comments.
    You should have posted your "First" on here before posting NEW THREAD on the prev thread :wink:
    People get upset when I get the first on a new thread.

    They think it is the equivalent of insider trading.
    Fair point. And they'd be right :smile:
    Nah, all I was doing was uploading a thread for publication.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,857
    edited March 2018
    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Because economic migrants are economically rational, and there might be other countries where doctors earn more?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,331
    God I hate these bed blocking North London clubs.

    They stink out the Champions League.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Tottenham out - who'd a thunked it?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,331
    edited March 2018
    Benpointer said:

    Tottenham out - who'd a thunked it?

    Me.

    I called it, a couple of weeks ago the press were getting all excited about 4/5 English clubs in the quarters and I said it was more likely we'd have only 2 clubs in the quarters.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,258
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Because economic migrants are economically rational, and there might be other countries where doctors earn more?
    Apologies, the complaint was the NHS was blocked from bringing in any more - i.e. there is demand from doctors to come here. Who do we prioritize over them?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,346
    edited March 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    philiph said:

    Mine has been eaten by vanilla

    Is the continued closeness of this result due to the respondents not having the knowledge to make an informed choice? As such a close result is likely.

    Vanilla ate two of my comments.
    "Freddie Starr ate my PB Threads!"
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,720
    FPT, I liked Rod Crosby's political analyses, but he was rather an admirer of Mr. Hitler.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Because economic migrants are economically rational, and there might be other countries where doctors earn more?
    Apologies, the complaint was the NHS was blocked from bringing in any more - i.e. there is demand from doctors to come here. Who do we prioritize over them?
    If you look at our Visa schemes, they're based on a whitelist, which is unhelpful if you don't fit neatly into the SOCL. There have been several recent reports on health professionals failing on salary grounds or the aforementioned classification difficulties.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    philiph said:

    Mine has been eaten by vanilla

    Is the continued closeness of this result due to the respondents not having the knowledge to make an informed choice? As such a close result is likely.

    Vanilla ate two of my comments.
    "Freddie Starr ate my PB Threads!"
    The dog ate my homework.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    We've got enough ducky!

    Highlight of Panorama programme to me.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,723
    Completely OT.

    A couple of my friends live in upstate New York. They have just had a state of emergency declared and been told not to travel as they are expecting 3 to 4 inches of snow per hour for the next 8 hours.

    When they were sympathizing with me last week over our snow I thought they were being concerned. Now I realise they were just taking the mickey. :)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    The immigrants ate my Mansfield.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Completely OT.

    A couple of my friends live in upstate New York. They have just had a state of emergency declared and been told not to travel as they are expecting 3 to 4 inches of snow per hour for the next 8 hours.

    When they were sympathizing with me last week over our snow I thought they were being concerned. Now I realise they were just taking the mickey. :)

    Upstate New York can get very heavy snow, Bills Vs Colts proved it lol
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,546
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    God I hate these bed blocking North London clubs.

    They stink out the Champions League.

    Yep, Leicester was the only English club in the quarters last year. :)

    Though it may be a while before we get another go!

  • glwglw Posts: 9,993
    Listening to various Russian diplomats this evening I'm 99% certain that they do not believe a word they are saying. They are dishing out some absolute claptrap with little sign that they are doing anything other than delivering the party line.

    Still you can't blame them, as people who cross Putin are murdered.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    The thing is it is not entirely a straight choice between the 2.

    Even Barnier has said we can get a Canada style FTA and end free movement
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,816
    HYUFD said:

    The thing is it is not entirely a straight choice between the 2.

    Even Barnier has said we can get a Canada style FTA and end free movement

    A Canada style FTA is free trade, but not frictionless trade, and would still leave important parts of our economy outside the single market with inferior access.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Because economic migrants are economically rational, and there might be other countries where doctors earn more?
    The interesting thing is I think being outside the EU leads in the long run to a higher total UK population..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,546
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Because economic migrants are economically rational, and there might be other countries where doctors earn more?
    Apologies, the complaint was the NHS was blocked from bringing in any more - i.e. there is demand from doctors to come here. Who do we prioritize over them?
    Yep, it is quite a common issue, Tier 2 visas are oversubscribed and the time to get one so prolonged that it is quite common for staff to go elsewhere.

    https://news.sky.com/story/doctors-blocked-by-arbitrary-visa-rules-from-taking-up-nhs-jobs-11222690

    Of course, the policy is to create a hostile environment to immigrants. This is a feature, not a bug.



  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,903
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Because economic migrants are economically rational, and there might be other countries where doctors earn more?
    But surely they would chose to work in the 'envy of the world' ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2018
    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Maybe we should train more of our own doctors here in the UK.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,546
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Because economic migrants are economically rational, and there might be other countries where doctors earn more?
    The interesting thing is I think being outside the EU leads in the long run to a higher total UK population..
    I think that quite likely. Fertility rates of non EU migrants are higher than native born and EU migrants.

    They are also less likely to retire back to their home country, and more likely to bring in family.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    The thing is it is not entirely a straight choice between the 2.

    Even Barnier has said we can get a Canada style FTA and end free movement

    A Canada style FTA is free trade, but not frictionless trade, and would still leave important parts of our economy outside the single market with inferior access.
    Yes but crucially it ends free movement which is the only way to properly respect the Leave vote while still getting a trade deal with the EU
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Because economic migrants are economically rational, and there might be other countries where doctors earn more?
    The interesting thing is I think being outside the EU leads in the long run to a higher total UK population..
    I think that quite likely. Fertility rates of non EU migrants are higher than native born and EU migrants.

    They are also less likely to retire back to their home country, and more likely to bring in family.
    Pretty much the perfect pool of migrants tbh
  • glwglw Posts: 9,993
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    The thing is it is not entirely a straight choice between the 2.

    Even Barnier has said we can get a Canada style FTA and end free movement

    A Canada style FTA is free trade, but not frictionless trade, and would still leave important parts of our economy outside the single market with inferior access.
    Yes but crucially it ends free movement which is the only way to properly respect the Leave vote while still getting a trade deal with the EU
    Canada+ has long looked like the most plausible outcome. Of course that doesn't mean we'll end up there, we still need to do a deal even to get there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,546
    edited March 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Because economic migrants are economically rational, and there might be other countries where doctors earn more?
    The interesting thing is I think being outside the EU leads in the long run to a higher total UK population..
    I think that quite likely. Fertility rates of non EU migrants are higher than native born and EU migrants.

    They are also less likely to retire back to their home country, and more likely to bring in family.
    Pretty much the perfect pool of migrants tbh
    Not so sure that is what the average Leave voter intended, but so be it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,816
    edited March 2018
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    The thing is it is not entirely a straight choice between the 2.

    Even Barnier has said we can get a Canada style FTA and end free movement

    A Canada style FTA is free trade, but not frictionless trade, and would still leave important parts of our economy outside the single market with inferior access.
    Yes but crucially it ends free movement which is the only way to properly respect the Leave vote while still getting a trade deal with the EU
    Canada+ has long looked like the most plausible outcome. Of course that doesn't mean we'll end up there, we still need to do a deal even to get there.
    Canada+ also means we need to accept special status for Northern Ireland.

    We can't do all three things at once:

    image
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/carriecordero/status/971514943001579520
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,546
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    The thing is it is not entirely a straight choice between the 2.

    Even Barnier has said we can get a Canada style FTA and end free movement

    A Canada style FTA is free trade, but not frictionless trade, and would still leave important parts of our economy outside the single market with inferior access.
    Yes but crucially it ends free movement which is the only way to properly respect the Leave vote while still getting a trade deal with the EU
    Canada+ has long looked like the most plausible outcome. Of course that doesn't mean we'll end up there, we still need to do a deal even to get there.
    Yes, could well be Canada minus, as it would be a rush job to get even Canada neutral finished by end of transition.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,816
    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/971517659266404352
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 80
    They are both important.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,383
    edited March 2018
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/971517659266404352

    Disabling air conditioning in the UK. Well, you've got us bang to rights there, Mr Putin!

    EDIT: Of course, server rooms and industrial air con could be a sizeable problem, but I still think it a slightly amusing threat compared with the others.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Pro_Rata said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/971517659266404352

    Disabling air conditioning in the UK. Well, you've got us bang to rights there, Mr Putin!
    That is a bit bizarre. If you can bring down power supplies, why bother woth AirCon?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,993
    Benpointer said:

    That is a bit bizarre. If you can bring down power supplies, why bother woth AirCon?

    It's probably Daily Mail speak, and really means that the UK intelligence community know that the Russians have been looking to target HVAC systems that have remote management, along with all other industrial control systems.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited March 2018
    From the little I know of air conditioning I don't really understand how that could be done on all that large a scale, or very efficiently.

    Edit: there are rooms filled with important equipment kept cool by air conditioning. If you could somehow take it all out it would cause problems.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 323
    There is a simple way to destroy Putin, and that is to freeze the assets of his kleptocrat chums. Putin and the kleptocrats are one and the same; freezing their squillions held in banks in British Overseas Territories will paralyse them quicker than any nervegas
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,389
    edited March 2018
    Interesting article about the effects of Brexit on the pharma industry. Spoiler alert, not good. He makes the point that it doesn't matter if your industry gets special customs treatment when all trucks are held up in the queues at the border. In the medium term a hard Brexit will cut the UK out of European supply chains in several important industries.

    On topic, Mrs May's red lines are becoming very expensive. In a marginally won referendum where there's now probably a majority against the whole project, there will be pressure to give way on CU, SM, ECJ etc

    https://twitter.com/J_Strachan_Edit/status/966976165943697408
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited March 2018
    glw said:

    Listening to various Russian diplomats this evening I'm 99% certain that they do not believe a word they are saying. They are dishing out some absolute claptrap with little sign that they are doing anything other than delivering the party line.

    Still you can't blame them, as people who cross Putin are murdered.

    Shouldn't think they know one way or the other, but clearly routine denial is the standard. If there are murderous secret agents on the staff, I doubt if they natter about it over tea.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,993
    NickPalmer said:

    Shouldn't think they know one way or the other, but clearly routine denial is the standard. If there are murderous secret agents on the staff, I doubt if they natter about it over tea.

    Of course they don't know about individuals and operations, but Russian diplomats would have to be in denial to be unaware of what the state they represent all too routinely does to those who cross them.

    I've heard Russian diplomats all but say "Britain is murdering people and blaming Russia to make us look bad".
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    FF43 said:

    Interesting article about the effects of Brexit on the pharma industry. Spoiler alert, not good. He makes the point that it doesn't matter if your industry gets special customs treatment when all trucks are held up in the queues at the border. In the medium term a hard Brexit will cut the UK out of European supply chains in several important industries.

    On topic, Mrs May's red lines are becoming very expensive. In a marginally won referendum where there's now probably a majority against the whole project, there will be pressure to give way on CU, SM, ECJ etc

    https://twitter.com/J_Strachan_Edit/status/966976165943697408

    If the EU is seen to be bullying the U.K. by not agreeing a trade deal better than Canada’s, I think this country’s ‘bugger off’ mentality will come to the fore.

    The EU wants free trade in goods, in which they have a surplus, and no concessions for financial services, in which they have a deficit. They will only allow fish exports if they retain access to our territorial waters, which represent well over half the catch of the whole EU. At the same time, they expect us to help with defence, when the vast majority of members don’t spend at least 2% on defence.

    This is cherry picking on an epic scale. I am glad Hammond held out the prospect of no free trade if they refuse to play on financial services.

    If the public becomes broadly aware of the EU’s stance, I would expect a larger majority for Leave if a second referendum were held. The gulf in understanding of the purpose of the EU (Common Market vs European Union) remains as wide as ever.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    franklyn said:

    There is a simple way to destroy Putin, and that is to freeze the assets of his kleptocrat chums. Putin and the kleptocrats are one and the same; freezing their squillions held in banks in British Overseas Territories will paralyse them quicker than any nervegas

    +1
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,346
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Because economic migrants are economically rational, and there might be other countries where doctors earn more?
    The interesting thing is I think being outside the EU leads in the long run to a higher total UK population..
    I think that quite likely. Fertility rates of non EU migrants are higher than native born and EU migrants.

    They are also less likely to retire back to their home country, and more likely to bring in family.
    Racist :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,720
    FPT
    bigjohnowls said:

    Where is Rod these days

    He got a bit too Hitlery. A pity: he was the best analyst on PB in the 2010s, and that's in a field including @AndyJS, @BlackRook, @isam, and, um, me. If memory serves, he predicted the 2015 Con maj a full year ahead. Last I heard he was flying microlites for fun.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,389
    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Non tariff barriers, I guess. Foreign doctors need UK recognised qualifications and certifications. Also good English.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,720
    FF43 said:

    Interesting article about the effects of Brexit on the pharma industry. Spoiler alert, not good. He makes the point that it doesn't matter if your industry gets special customs treatment when all trucks are held up in the queues at the border. In the medium term a hard Brexit will cut the UK out of European supply chains in several important industries.

    On topic, Mrs May's red lines are becoming very expensive. In a marginally won referendum where there's now probably a majority against the whole project, there will be pressure to give way on CU, SM, ECJ etc

    https://twitter.com/J_Strachan_Edit/status/966976165943697408

    Unfortunately we have a government full of overeducated undersensible manchildren who are only concerned with their own future and think blaming the EU for their failures is preferable to achieving success.

    Pause.

    Not that I'm bitter and twisted or anything... :)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    franklyn said:

    There is a simple way to destroy Putin, and that is to freeze the assets of his kleptocrat chums. Putin and the kleptocrats are one and the same; freezing their squillions held in banks in British Overseas Territories will paralyse them quicker than any nervegas

    But who’ll fund the Tories then?

  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    NickPalmer said:

    glw said:

    Listening to various Russian diplomats this evening I'm 99% certain that they do not believe a word they are saying. They are dishing out some absolute claptrap with little sign that they are doing anything other than delivering the party line.

    Still you can't blame them, as people who cross Putin are murdered.

    Shouldn't think they know one way or the other, but clearly routine denial is the standard. If there are murderous secret agents on the staff, I doubt if they natter about it over tea.
    The big question facing both May and Corbyn is whether they will stand up to Putin. Given Corbyn's past work for the regime, I am guessing he won't.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,546
    bigjohnowls said:

    We've got enough ducky!

    Highlight of Panorama programme to me.

    It is rather good, and even handed:

    https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/971489024216100865?s=19
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Because economic migrants are economically rational, and there might be other countries where doctors earn more?
    The interesting thing is I think being outside the EU leads in the long run to a higher total UK population..
    I think that quite likely. Fertility rates of non EU migrants are higher than native born and EU migrants.

    They are also less likely to retire back to their home country, and more likely to bring in family.
    Pretty much the perfect pool of migrants tbh
    Neither EU nor non-EU migrants are a single pool. Iranian immigrants tend to be highly educated with few kids and low unemployment. Somali immigrants are largely uneducated with many kids and very high unemployment.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,546
    FF43 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Non tariff barriers, I guess. Foreign doctors need UK recognised qualifications and certifications. Also good English.
    EU/EEA qualifications are automatically recognised, as are some others, most have to take the PLAB covering language and skills. It usually takes 6 months or so.

    The difficulty getting Tier 2 work visas is on top, as per the CEO of the QE in Brum.

    Of course, if this forces better pay and conditions for sturdy yeoman doctors of British stock, that can only be a good thing. Indeed it is the purpose of Brexit surely?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,546
    Elliot said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Because economic migrants are economically rational, and there might be other countries where doctors earn more?
    The interesting thing is I think being outside the EU leads in the long run to a higher total UK population..
    I think that quite likely. Fertility rates of non EU migrants are higher than native born and EU migrants.

    They are also less likely to retire back to their home country, and more likely to bring in family.
    Pretty much the perfect pool of migrants tbh
    Neither EU nor non-EU migrants are a single pool. Iranian immigrants tend to be highly educated with few kids and low unemployment. Somali immigrants are largely uneducated with many kids and very high unemployment.
    205 000 Non EU migrants last year suggests to me that the government is not in control even of these.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Danny565 said:

    The one bit about the Corbyn story that makes me raise my eyebrows is that he apparently posted a comment in a thread where other people were using the term "Zios".

    Admittedly "Zio" or "Zionist" are not in themselves anti-Semitic, but the people who use the terms almost invariably are.

    You are surprised a man that never met an Islamist he didn't like is blase about anti-Semitism?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,720
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Because economic migrants are economically rational, and there might be other countries where doctors earn more?
    The interesting thing is I think being outside the EU leads in the long run to a higher total UK population..
    I think that quite likely. Fertility rates of non EU migrants are higher than native born and EU migrants.

    They are also less likely to retire back to their home country, and more likely to bring in family.
    Racist :)
    Migrants from different nations behave differently in terms of sending money home, frequency and duration of return visits, length of stay, propensity to give birth and attain a profession. If we assume Indians have the same profile to Bangladeshis, Poles to Russians, Irish to Italians, Greeks to Turks, Canadians to Americans, Somalis to Ugandan Asians to Ethiopians, Koreans to Japanese to Chinese, or even Swedes to Finns, we run the risk of getting things wrong and making analysis meaningless.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Elliot said:

    NickPalmer said:

    glw said:

    Listening to various Russian diplomats this evening I'm 99% certain that they do not believe a word they are saying. They are dishing out some absolute claptrap with little sign that they are doing anything other than delivering the party line.

    Still you can't blame them, as people who cross Putin are murdered.

    Shouldn't think they know one way or the other, but clearly routine denial is the standard. If there are murderous secret agents on the staff, I doubt if they natter about it over tea.
    The big question facing both May and Corbyn is whether they will stand up to Putin. Given Corbyn's past work for the regime, I am guessing he won't.
    You forget that many Tories also 'work' for the regime, if work means appear on RT. As well as Mourinho who will be helping spout Russian propaganda under the cover of a 'world cup' and chatting about 'football'.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,720
    RoyalBlue said:

    If the EU is seen to be bullying the U.K. by not agreeing a trade deal better than Canada’s...

    I can't think of a better example of snowflakism than equating "not giving you what you want" with "bullying".

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    franklyn said:

    There is a simple way to destroy Putin, and that is to freeze the assets of his kleptocrat chums. Putin and the kleptocrats are one and the same; freezing their squillions held in banks in British Overseas Territories will paralyse them quicker than any nervegas

    Yes, but. The entire economic model of some of these places would then be shot.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    edited March 2018
    AndyJS said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone see Panorama from Mansfield

    Did you see that bigoted woman as GB would say.

    We watched it. My dad wants to know, how can net migration be at 240k and yet we still aren't getting enough doctors in. It's a very fair question.
    Maybe we should train more of our own doctors here in the UK.
    Maybe we should. But why bother training when selling dodgy financial instruments requires none, and is so much more rewarding? And, dare I say, respected?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lionesses in action in a few minutes against the United States.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/football/42992633
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    viewcode said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    If the EU is seen to be bullying the U.K. by not agreeing a trade deal better than Canada’s...

    I can't think of a better example of snowflakism than equating "not giving you what you want" with "bullying".

    Not really, I think. The basic point at issue, and main point of disagreement/lack of understanding in all this is the extent to which the EU prioritises doing a “rational” deal in it’s economic interest and effectively treating the U.K. as an other third party country, versus framing it’s stance in the context of Britain as an ex-EU country, potentially even one that can be persuaded to change its mind if they play hardball.

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    viewcode said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    If the EU is seen to be bullying the U.K. by not agreeing a trade deal better than Canada’s...

    I can't think of a better example of snowflakism than equating "not giving you what you want" with "bullying".

    It’s all a question of perspective :wink: How the public view the EU’s actions more than the actions themselves is key.

    I’ve always been pessimistic about the likelihood of an acceptable trade deal being reached, because it is in the EU’s overwhelming political interest and long-term economic interest to make the cost of leaving very high for the U.K. This is why we should have been spending serious money on customs and border infrastructure since March 2017.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,720
    AndyJS said:

    Lionesses in action in a few minutes against the United States.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/football/42992633

    I thought you meant real lionesses, not the US national female soccer team. I am oddly disappointed... :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    RoyalBlue said:

    viewcode said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    If the EU is seen to be bullying the U.K. by not agreeing a trade deal better than Canada’s...

    I can't think of a better example of snowflakism than equating "not giving you what you want" with "bullying".

    It’s all a question of perspective :wink: How the public view the EU’s actions more than the actions themselves is key.

    I’ve always been pessimistic about the likelihood of an acceptable trade deal being reached, because it is in the EU’s overwhelming political interest and long-term economic interest to make the cost of leaving very high for the U.K. This is why we should have been spending serious money on customs and border infrastructure since March 2017.
    Indeed. You are proobably right. But then the question why is my library closing/kids TA let go/bins not collected may arise.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    RoyalBlue said:

    viewcode said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    If the EU is seen to be bullying the U.K. by not agreeing a trade deal better than Canada’s...

    I can't think of a better example of snowflakism than equating "not giving you what you want" with "bullying".

    It’s all a question of perspective :wink: How the public view the EU’s actions more than the actions themselves is key.

    I’ve always been pessimistic about the likelihood of an acceptable trade deal being reached, because it is in the EU’s overwhelming political interest and long-term economic interest to make the cost of leaving very high for the U.K. This is why we should have been spending serious money on customs and border infrastructure since March 2017.
    But we haven’t. So what now, Einstein?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Sounds fascinating - anyone seen it?

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/02/15/brexitannia-an-unsettling-beautiful-insight-into-post-referendum-uk/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/971409676213645313
    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/971050565009661952
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,816
    edited March 2018
    RoyalBlue said:

    viewcode said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    If the EU is seen to be bullying the U.K. by not agreeing a trade deal better than Canada’s...

    I can't think of a better example of snowflakism than equating "not giving you what you want" with "bullying".

    It’s all a question of perspective :wink: How the public view the EU’s actions more than the actions themselves is key.

    I’ve always been pessimistic about the likelihood of an acceptable trade deal being reached, because it is in the EU’s overwhelming political interest and long-term economic interest to make the cost of leaving very high for the U.K. This is why we should have been spending serious money on customs and border infrastructure since March 2017.
    But this comes back to the problem of the trilemma. Where would we put the customs infrastructure? We can't prepare for a UK wide exit from the customs union, let alone a WTO Brexit, without customs infrastructure on the Irish border, but that would show us in a seriously bad light internationally and incite very serious protests against what we were doing.

    image

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,720
    RoyalBlue said:

    viewcode said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    If the EU is seen to be bullying the U.K. by not agreeing a trade deal better than Canada’s...

    I can't think of a better example of snowflakism than equating "not giving you what you want" with "bullying".

    It’s all a question of perspective :wink: How the public view the EU’s actions more than the actions themselves is key.

    I’ve always been pessimistic about the likelihood of an acceptable trade deal being reached, because it is in the EU’s overwhelming political interest and long-term economic interest to make the cost of leaving very high for the U.K. This is why we should have been spending serious money on customs and border infrastructure since March 2017.
    Unsarcastically, no it isn't a question of perspective. We've been involving ourselves for so long with the debate side of things (where manipulating opinion, managing opinion, engineering opinion and presentation was important) we've forgotten that from March next year it moves into the reality side of things, where results become real and the phoney war ends.

    The public can view the results of the EU's actions any way it damn well pleases (oddly enough it doesn't listen to my eternal wisdom: who knew? :) ) but if it retreats into the "failing and blaming" culture I have so often criticised, then we will be in trouble.

    Incidentally, you may be interested to know I agree with you regarding the wisdom of starting building customs/borders at least a year ago. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail and all that... :(
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Salisbury gets even more worrying - policeman now in coma:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5750698/russian-spy-poisoning-sergei-skripal-salisbury-latest-ill-nerve-agent-first-police-coma/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,816
    https://www.retailni.com/news/business-leaders-urge-ireland’s-europe-minister-ensure-there-must-be-no-border-across-or

    Leaders from Northern Ireland’s retail and manufacturing industries met with Helen McEntee TD, the Irish Minister of State for European Affairs, and pressed her to ensure that there is no border across or between these islands as a result of Brexit.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    williamglenn said:

    https://www.retailni.com/news/business-leaders-urge-ireland’s-europe-minister-ensure-there-must-be-no-border-across-or

    Leaders from Northern Ireland’s retail and manufacturing industries met with Helen McEntee TD, the Irish Minister of State for European Affairs, and pressed her to ensure that there is no border across or between these islands as a result of Brexit.

    there is no border across or between these islands as a result of Brexit.

    There goes the EU's proposal then......
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,816
    CarlottaVance said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.retailni.com/news/business-leaders-urge-ireland’s-europe-minister-ensure-there-must-be-no-border-across-or

    Leaders from Northern Ireland’s retail and manufacturing industries met with Helen McEntee TD, the Irish Minister of State for European Affairs, and pressed her to ensure that there is no border across or between these islands as a result of Brexit.

    there is no border across or between these islands as a result of Brexit.

    There goes the EU's proposal then......
    Paragraph 50 of the joint report gives Belfast the power to prevent Great Britain from diverging from Northern Ireland in the even of the backstop solution being implemented.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Completely OT.

    A couple of my friends live in upstate New York. They have just had a state of emergency declared and been told not to travel as they are expecting 3 to 4 inches of snow per hour for the next 8 hours.

    When they were sympathizing with me last week over our snow I thought they were being concerned. Now I realise they were just taking the mickey. :)

    Upstate New York can get very heavy snow, Bills Vs Colts proved it lol
    A couple of feet at least in some areas, and this is on top of last week's. We've had about 6" here closer to NYC. The biggest problem is that last week's storm brought down so many power lines that not even half were restored before the new storm hit.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.retailni.com/news/business-leaders-urge-ireland’s-europe-minister-ensure-there-must-be-no-border-across-or

    Leaders from Northern Ireland’s retail and manufacturing industries met with Helen McEntee TD, the Irish Minister of State for European Affairs, and pressed her to ensure that there is no border across or between these islands as a result of Brexit.

    there is no border across or between these islands as a result of Brexit.

    There goes the EU's proposal then......
    Paragraph 50 of the joint report gives Belfast the power to prevent Great Britain from diverging from Northern Ireland in the even of the backstop solution being implemented.
    Problem is, there is no "Belfast" at the moment, only direct rule ministers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,806
    rpjs said:

    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.retailni.com/news/business-leaders-urge-ireland’s-europe-minister-ensure-there-must-be-no-border-across-or

    Leaders from Northern Ireland’s retail and manufacturing industries met with Helen McEntee TD, the Irish Minister of State for European Affairs, and pressed her to ensure that there is no border across or between these islands as a result of Brexit.

    there is no border across or between these islands as a result of Brexit.

    There goes the EU's proposal then......
    Paragraph 50 of the joint report gives Belfast the power to prevent Great Britain from diverging from Northern Ireland in the even of the backstop solution being implemented.
    Problem is, there is no "Belfast" at the moment, only direct rule ministers.
    And seemingly no prospect of devolution being restored, even as no one wants new elections as it justifiably woukd seem to solve nothing.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    Trump softening on tariffs - adding exemptions for Mexico and Canada... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43325060
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Hammond puts 'no deal' back on the table:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/07/philip-hammond-reignites-the-no-deal-brexit-argument
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    CarlottaVance said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.retailni.com/news/business-leaders-urge-ireland’s-europe-minister-ensure-there-must-be-no-border-across-or

    Leaders from Northern Ireland’s retail and manufacturing industries met with Helen McEntee TD, the Irish Minister of State for European Affairs, and pressed her to ensure that there is no border across or between these islands as a result of Brexit.

    there is no border across or between these islands as a result of Brexit.

    There goes the EU's proposal then......
    I am really looking forward to TMay explaining to HMQ at one of their weekly meetings, how she has accidently lost part of the UK while trying to keep the Conservative Party united.. . .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    rkrkrk said:

    Trump softening on tariffs - adding exemptions for Mexico and Canada... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43325060

    How many more of his trade and commerce advisors have to resign, before he realises that a trade war is a bad idea?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    CarlottaVance said:

    Hammond puts 'no deal' back on the table:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/07/philip-hammond-reignites-the-no-deal-brexit-argument

    I still think it’s highly likely a deal will be done.
    The unity of the EU has been a pleasant surprise to me - that seems a very good sign for the UK, once we agree something with Barnier, there’s an excellent chance it will stick with the rest of the EU.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Trump softening on tariffs - adding exemptions for Mexico and Canada... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43325060

    How many more of his trade and commerce advisors have to resign, before he realises that a trade war is a bad idea?
    I still think he will only do symbolic tariffs at most... he just wants to look tough.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Nothing to see - no sireeee!

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/07/us/politics/stormy-daniels-trump.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
This discussion has been closed.