politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs appear to be returning to their former role as NOTA –

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs appear to be returning to their former role as NOTA – none of the above

Council by-election vote share changes with previous winning party: (That UKIP-LDM swing tho…) pic.twitter.com/ENb5KEutC4

Read the full story here

FrankBooth

1st

FrankBooth

I wouldn't be too harsh on NOTA voters. You can say it's a wasted vote but they ARE making the effort to go to the ballot box.

Sunil_Prasannan

LDs are closet Kippers and fruitcakes?

Essexit

4th like the Lib Dems

Foxy

Sunil_Prasannan said:

LDs are closet Kippers and fruitcakes?

Yes, you would be very welcome

HYUFD

With the LDs making the biggest gains in all seats bar those held by Labour it may well be the yellows, not the reds, who end up making the biggest gains in May.

AnneJGP

FrankBooth said:

I wouldn't be too harsh on NOTA voters. You can say it's a wasted vote but they ARE making the effort to go to the ballot box.

Yes. I spent most of my adult life in a safe-seat constituency and always voted for any very minor candidate that I wanted to encourage.

Jonathan

Touch of the old wishful thinking here.

Stark_Dawning

Yes, it's looking increasingly as if the UKIP phenomenon was a chimera - people ticking the box of the bunch who never wield power just because they could. There was probably no policy endorsement whatsoever. Nevertheless, you have to hand it to the euro-sceptic Right, who harnessed UKIP phantom to bring about Brexit, which will probably turn out to be a phantom itself.

DavidL

Interesting but I wonder if the massive increase in UKIP seats is from a vanishingly low base and not necessarily productive of wins. Also the Lib Dems have always been rather good at bye elections. May will be a much more realistic test of whether they are on their way back.

kle4

Hope springs eternal.

DavidL

Really well played Spurs by the way.

FrankBooth

Sunil_Prasannan said:

LDs are closet Kippers and fruitcakes?

No, the real Kippers are actually sandal-wearing beardies.

Toms

US gun sales falling. The Chump Trump slump?
Better late than not at all I guess.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/13/remington-bankruptcy-guns-trump-slump-sales

williamglenn

The Sun leak of Boris’s speech does make it sound like Number 10 is actively wargaming a ‘no Brexit’ outcome. Boris is laying the groundwork by making the negative case that being outside will give us no say in the rules.

DavidL

Toms said:

US gun sales falling. The Chump Trump slump?
Better late than not at all I guess.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/13/remington-bankruptcy-guns-trump-slump-sales

7.7m "super owners" have 140 guns apiece? Christ.

rpjs

Toms said:

US gun sales falling. The Chump Trump slump?
Better late than not at all I guess.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/13/remington-bankruptcy-guns-trump-slump-sales

There's no longer a black man in the White House. Simple as that.

another_richard

*** betting post ***

SkyBet have a market for the name of W&K's third baby:

https://m.skybet.com/current-affairs/royal-specials/event/21197169

Female names predominate so if its still regarded as a 50/50 possibility there's likely some good value in the potential male names.

Louis 40/1, Charles 40/1 and Philip 33/1 look interesting to me.

Benpointer

kle4 said:

Hope springs eternal.

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can stand the despair. It's the hope!"

CarlottaVance

williamglenn said:

The Sun leak of Boris’s speech does make it sound like Number 10 is actively wargaming a ‘no Brexit’ outcome. Boris is laying the groundwork by making the negative case that being outside will give us no say in the rules.

In some cases, alas, I detect a hardening of the mood, a deepening of the anger.

I fear that some people are becoming ever more determined to stop Brexit, to reverse the referendum vote and frustrate the will of the people.

I believe that would be a disastrous mistake, leading to permanent and ineradicable feelings of betrayal. We cannot and will not let it happen.

Toms

rpjs said:

Toms said:

US gun sales falling. The Chump Trump slump?
Better late than not at all I guess.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/13/remington-bankruptcy-guns-trump-slump-sales

There's no longer a black man in the White House. Simple as that.

Some people feel SAFER WITH TRUMP ???
What a pity they can't turn to collecting match boxes or stamps like proper eccentrics.

Jonathan

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

The Sun leak of Boris’s speech does make it sound like Number 10 is actively wargaming a ‘no Brexit’ outcome. Boris is laying the groundwork by making the negative case that being outside will give us no say in the rules.

In some cases, alas, I detect a hardening of the mood, a deepening of the anger.

I fear that some people are becoming ever more determined to stop Brexit, to reverse the referendum vote and frustrate the will of the people.

I believe that would be a disastrous mistake, leading to permanent and ineradicable feelings of betrayal. We cannot and will not let it happen.

People feel like that already.

williamglenn

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

The Sun leak of Boris’s speech does make it sound like Number 10 is actively wargaming a ‘no Brexit’ outcome. Boris is laying the groundwork by making the negative case that being outside will give us no say in the rules.

In some cases, alas, I detect a hardening of the mood, a deepening of the anger.

I fear that some people are becoming ever more determined to stop Brexit, to reverse the referendum vote and frustrate the will of the people.

I believe that would be a disastrous mistake, leading to permanent and ineradicable feelings of betrayal. We cannot and will not let it happen.

He’s legitimising it by referring to it. May can never be taken at face value.

Mortimer

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

The Sun leak of Boris’s speech does make it sound like Number 10 is actively wargaming a ‘no Brexit’ outcome. Boris is laying the groundwork by making the negative case that being outside will give us no say in the rules.

In some cases, alas, I detect a hardening of the mood, a deepening of the anger.

I fear that some people are becoming ever more determined to stop Brexit, to reverse the referendum vote and frustrate the will of the people.

I believe that would be a disastrous mistake, leading to permanent and ineradicable feelings of betrayal. We cannot and will not let it happen.

He’s legitimising it by referring to it. May can never be taken at face value.

"There are no tanks in Baghdad"

Foxy

Toms said:

rpjs said:

Toms said:

US gun sales falling. The Chump Trump slump?
Better late than not at all I guess.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/13/remington-bankruptcy-guns-trump-slump-sales

There's no longer a black man in the White House. Simple as that.

Some people feel SAFER WITH TRUMP ???
What a pity they can't turn to collecting match boxes or stamps like proper eccentrics.

While still heavily armed, America is also polarising over guns. Gun ownership rates are dropping but a few owners own a lot:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/nov/15/the-gun-numbers-just-3-of-american-adults-own-a-collective-133m-firearms

AndyJS

Most of the UKIP vote probably isn't going to the LDs, it's returning to the two main parties, who in turn are losing some votes to the yellows.

rcs1000

DavidL said:

Interesting but I wonder if the massive increase in UKIP seats is from a vanishingly low base and not necessarily productive of wins. Also the Lib Dems have always been rather good at bye elections. May will be a much more realistic test of whether they are on their way back.

?

There is not a massive increase in the number of UKIP seats. You have misread the graph.

The interesting nugget out of this graphic is that there appears to be an almost one-to-one shift in votes between Kippers and LibDems, in former UKIP seats.

Now, I suspect that the sample size is small (and therefore you shouldn't read too much into it). That being said, that the LDs are performing best in former Kipper seats is interesting, and is a trend to watch out for in the May local elections.

NickPalmer

US polls are all over the place (some show Trump close to even popularity, others way negative), but the Democrats seem to be doing consistently verwell in special (what we call by-)elections:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/17006192/minnesota-special-election-results

Recidivist

A big Lib Dem surge could frighten whichever of the main parties it comes from.

another_richard

Have just done a YouGov and one of the extra questions was:

' When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen? '

The answers being:

(1) ' Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union '

or

(2) ' There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world '

And, to my surprise, option (1) leads by 49% to 13%.

Not only that but option (1) leads among every age group, avery voting group, every part of the country, every gender and every social class.

brendan16

Stark_Dawning said:

Yes, it's looking increasingly as if the UKIP phenomenon was a chimera - people ticking the box of the bunch who never wield power just because they could. There was probably no policy endorsement whatsoever. Nevertheless, you have to hand it to the euro-sceptic Right, who harnessed UKIP phantom to bring about Brexit, which will probably turn out to be a phantom itself.

I don't think the discontent that saw UKIP rise in the polls has gone away. Mrs May decided to turn the Tories into a UKIP lite before the election - which she has since reversed - and Corbyn has also tapped into the discontent. But the discontent remains and there are no solutions being offered by the current government to address it.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/963537430098907137

Big_G_NorthWales

Recidivist said:

A big Lib Dem surge could frighten whichever of the main parties it comes from.

I would expect lib dems to do well in the locals but Brexit is the factor that will have the biggest impact over the next 12 months

Jonathan

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/963537430098907137

That was a party political broadcast by the Boris4PM campaign.

kle4

DavidL said:

Toms said:

US gun sales falling. The Chump Trump slump?
Better late than not at all I guess.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/13/remington-bankruptcy-guns-trump-slump-sales

7.7m "super owners" have 140 guns apiece? Christ.

Perhaps those ones are actually the safest, since with that many it's really just a toy collection only more serious?

Big_G_NorthWales

another_richard said:

Have just done a YouGov and one of the extra questions was:

' When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen? '

The answers being:

(1) ' Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union '

or

(2) ' There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world '

And, to my surprise, option (1) leads by 49% to 13%.

Not only that but option (1) leads among every age group, avery voting group, every part of the country, every gender and every social class.

I saw that result a few days ago - wonder if yougov are doing it again.

It certainly is an eye opener for remainers who no doubt will be along to trash the wording or something else that doesn't suit their narrative

FrancisUrquhart

Basim was employed by a 59-year-old British-based Iraqi middleman named Mazin Younis.

Younis has been contracted by UK law firm Leigh Day and disg­raced tank-chaser Phil Shiner’s now-defunct Public Interest Lawyers firm.

He was paid £1.6million in 2009 for passing clients to Leigh Day while also receiving £500 from Shiner for every “claimant” he secured. Younis relied on agents on the ground like Basim to find clients willing to make claims.

Leigh Day vehemently deny any wrongdoing, insisting they had no knowledge — nor encouraged — the behaviour outlined by Basim. They pledged to take appropriate action if claims were found to be without merit.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5571614/fake-abuse-claims-iraq-war-heroes-mod/

gettingbetter

DavidL said:

Toms said:

US gun sales falling. The Chump Trump slump?
Better late than not at all I guess.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/13/remington-bankruptcy-guns-trump-slump-sales

7.7m "super owners" have 140 guns apiece? Christ.

you have misread the article.

rcs1000

another_richard said:

Have just done a YouGov and one of the extra questions was:

' When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen? '

The answers being:

(1) ' Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union '

or

(2) ' There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world '

And, to my surprise, option (1) leads by 49% to 13%.

Not only that but option (1) leads among every age group, avery voting group, every part of the country, every gender and every social class.

I would expect that it would. Frankly, devoid of context it sounds like by far the better option.

Here's the rub, though.

We're likely to leave the Customs Union without having made any real progress towards replicating the EU's existing arrangements. And it's likely to take a period of time before we even get back to parity.

How do you express that issue in a question, and quantify the impact?

another_richard

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Interesting but I wonder if the massive increase in UKIP seats is from a vanishingly low base and not necessarily productive of wins. Also the Lib Dems have always been rather good at bye elections. May will be a much more realistic test of whether they are on their way back.

?

There is not a massive increase in the number of UKIP seats. You have misread the graph.

The interesting nugget out of this graphic is that there appears to be an almost one-to-one shift in votes between Kippers and LibDems, in former UKIP seats.

Now, I suspect that the sample size is small (and therefore you shouldn't read too much into it). That being said, that the LDs are performing best in former Kipper seats is interesting, and is a trend to watch out for in the May local elections.

I don't remember the LibDems doing particularly well in former UKIP areas last May.

Stark_Dawning

Jonathan said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/963537430098907137

That was a party political broadcast by the Boris4PM campaign.

Wow. Boris's people have been out in force, briefing to the Boris-adoring outlets. Of course, he may hold back from some of it in his speech, but mission accomplished: it's now out there that weak, vacillating Theresa has been made subject to the decisiveness of Boris's iron will.

chrisoxon

Stark_Dawning said:

Yes, it's looking increasingly as if the UKIP phenomenon was a chimera - people ticking the box of the bunch who never wield power just because they could. There was probably no policy endorsement whatsoever. Nevertheless, you have to hand it to the euro-sceptic Right, who harnessed UKIP phantom to bring about Brexit, which will probably turn out to be a phantom itself.

"Nobody wanted a referendum"
"No one ever cared about Europe"
"This was just an issue in the Conservative Party"

*Yawn*

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/oct/24/eu-referendum-poll-uk-withdrawal

another_richard

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

Have just done a YouGov and one of the extra questions was:

' When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen? '

The answers being:

(1) ' Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union '

or

(2) ' There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world '

And, to my surprise, option (1) leads by 49% to 13%.

Not only that but option (1) leads among every age group, avery voting group, every part of the country, every gender and every social class.

I would expect that it would. Frankly, devoid of context it sounds like by far the better option.

Here's the rub, though.

We're likely to leave the Customs Union without having made any real progress towards replicating the EU's existing arrangements. And it's likely to take a period of time before we even get back to parity.

How do you express that issue in a question, and quantify the impact?

Surely you're not suggesting that our experienced diplomats with all their 'expert' advisors are the world beaters we've been given to understand.

rcs1000

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Interesting but I wonder if the massive increase in UKIP seats is from a vanishingly low base and not necessarily productive of wins. Also the Lib Dems have always been rather good at bye elections. May will be a much more realistic test of whether they are on their way back.

?

There is not a massive increase in the number of UKIP seats. You have misread the graph.

The interesting nugget out of this graphic is that there appears to be an almost one-to-one shift in votes between Kippers and LibDems, in former UKIP seats.

Now, I suspect that the sample size is small (and therefore you shouldn't read too much into it). That being said, that the LDs are performing best in former Kipper seats is interesting, and is a trend to watch out for in the May local elections.

I don't remember the LibDems doing particularly well in former UKIP areas last May.

This is by-elections, hence my comment about it being a very small sample size.

I don't remember the 2017 local elections very well at all, to be honest. Looking at Wikipedia, I see the LDs increased their total number of votes by a third, but lost seats because the Conservatives were up more.

rcs1000

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Have just done a YouGov and one of the extra questions was:

' When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen? '

The answers being:

(1) ' Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union '

or

(2) ' There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world '

And, to my surprise, option (1) leads by 49% to 13%.

Not only that but option (1) leads among every age group, avery voting group, every part of the country, every gender and every social class.

I saw that result a few days ago - wonder if yougov are doing it again.

It certainly is an eye opener for remainers who no doubt will be along to trash the wording or something else that doesn't suit their narrative

I'm no Remainer, but I personally think that you could sensibly dump much of the EU transition, but it wouldn't be stupid to stay in the customs union for a bit longer.

The real problem here is that we're under the gun. And other countries know this, and are likely to extract concessions from us with regard to dispute resolution mechanisms, or services access.

It's like if you're trying to buy a car. If the salesperson smells your desperation, you're going to get screwed. And trying to get all the EU's trade deals (and just as importantly, mutual recognition of standards agreements) replicated in a rush is us being desperate to deal.

FF43

NickPalmer said:

US polls are all over the place (some show Trump close to even popularity, others way negative), but the Democrats seem to be doing consistently verwell in special (what we call by-)elections:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/17006192/minnesota-special-election-results

My take on Trump is that most of the people that voted for him in 2016 would do so again. But not all. His problem is getting a new cohort of voters who went Hillary last time to switch to him. His margins are too narrow to win again otherwise. The Democrats could choose someone less popular than Clinton.

rcs1000

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

Have just done a YouGov and one of the extra questions was:

' When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen? '

The answers being:

(1) ' Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union '

or

(2) ' There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world '

And, to my surprise, option (1) leads by 49% to 13%.

Not only that but option (1) leads among every age group, avery voting group, every part of the country, every gender and every social class.

I would expect that it would. Frankly, devoid of context it sounds like by far the better option.

Here's the rub, though.

We're likely to leave the Customs Union without having made any real progress towards replicating the EU's existing arrangements. And it's likely to take a period of time before we even get back to parity.

How do you express that issue in a question, and quantify the impact?

Surely you're not suggesting that our experienced diplomats with all their 'expert' advisors are the world beaters we've been given to understand.

I think DfID is full of civil servants with little experience in international trade, being led by a minister who is careless of details, and the whole department is under exceptional time pressures.

another_richard

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Have just done a YouGov and one of the extra questions was:

' When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen? '

The answers being:

(1) ' Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union '

or

(2) ' There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world '

And, to my surprise, option (1) leads by 49% to 13%.

Not only that but option (1) leads among every age group, avery voting group, every part of the country, every gender and every social class.

I saw that result a few days ago - wonder if yougov are doing it again.

It certainly is an eye opener for remainers who no doubt will be along to trash the wording or something else that doesn't suit their narrative

I'm no Remainer, but I personally think that you could sensibly dump much of the EU transition, but it wouldn't be stupid to stay in the customs union for a bit longer.

The real problem here is that we're under the gun. And other countries know this, and are likely to extract concessions from us with regard to dispute resolution mechanisms, or services access.

It's like if you're trying to buy a car. If the salesperson smells your desperation, you're going to get screwed. And trying to get all the EU's trade deals (and just as importantly, mutual recognition of standards agreements) replicated in a rush is us being desperate to deal.

That seems sensible - the CU aspect is more tolerable than the SM part.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/963548954016272385

rkrkrk

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

Have just done a YouGov and one of the extra questions was:

' When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen? '

The answers being:

(1) ' Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union '

or

(2) ' There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world '

And, to my surprise, option (1) leads by 49% to 13%.

Not only that but option (1) leads among every age group, avery voting group, every part of the country, every gender and every social class.

I would expect that it would. Frankly, devoid of context it sounds like by far the better option.

Here's the rub, though.

We're likely to leave the Customs Union without having made any real progress towards replicating the EU's existing arrangements. And it's likely to take a period of time before we even get back to parity.

How do you express that issue in a question, and quantify the impact?

Surely you're not suggesting that our experienced diplomats with all their 'expert' advisors are the world beaters we've been given to understand.

I think DfID is full of civil servants with little experience in international trade, being led by a minister who is careless of details, and the whole department is under exceptional time pressures.

DFID!? DIT surely...
Actually DFID used to have a joint unit on trade with BIS back in the coalition days.

Roger

To all teachers. Do it the way they do it in New York

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-Tsq9RQiXg

CarlottaVance

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/963548954016272385

I fear that some people are becoming ever more determined to stop Brexit, to reverse the referendum vote and frustrate the will of the people.

I believe that would be a disastrous mistake, leading to permanent and ineradicable feelings of betrayal. We cannot and will not let it happen.

Stark_Dawning

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/963548954016272385

It was beautifully spun though - even the Guardian gave him a hearing initially. Boris will have delighted the euro-sceptic Right with a nice bit of Remoaner bashing and made Theresa look timid and dithering into the bargain. Job done!

dixiedean

FF43 said:

NickPalmer said:

US polls are all over the place (some show Trump close to even popularity, others way negative), but the Democrats seem to be doing consistently verwell in special (what we call by-)elections:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/17006192/minnesota-special-election-results

My take on Trump is that most of the people that voted for him in 2016 would do so again. But not all. His problem is getting a new cohort of voters who went Hillary last time to switch to him. His margins are too narrow to win again otherwise. The Democrats could choose someone less popular than Clinton.

The evidence so far suggests that while Trump will hold on to his voters, he motivates Democrats in a way Hilary couldn't.

FrancisUrquhart

Daily Mail Bingo....BBC, Oxfam, Savile, excessive public sector pay-offs, connections to sleazy Blair Labour party...full house!!!!

Beleaguered Oxfam trustee Caroline Thomson, who made a 'full and unqualified apology' to Britain and Haiti, is no stranger to being at the vortex of a major corporate scandal.

In a previous role at the BBC, she was dragged into the controversy over the cover-up of paedophile DJ Jimmy Savile's activities, as well as a row over excessive pay-offs for BBC executives.

There was widespread criticism of Ms Thomson — who uses her maiden name rather than her title by marriage, Lady Liddle — when, before she became chairman of Oxfam's trustees, she left the BBC (where she was chief operating officer) with a £670,000 pay-off — more than twice her £330,000 salary.

Astonishingly, she got this eye-watering sum even though she wanted to quit.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5388215/Oxfam-trustee-given-670-000-pay-BBC.html

viewcode

Toms said:

US gun sales falling. The Chump Trump slump?
Better late than not at all I guess.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/13/remington-bankruptcy-guns-trump-slump-sales

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoSTInR4fxQ

viewcode

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Have just done a YouGov and one of the extra questions was:

' When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen? '

The answers being:

(1) ' Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union '

or

(2) ' There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world '

And, to my surprise, option (1) leads by 49% to 13%.

Not only that but option (1) leads among every age group, avery voting group, every part of the country, every gender and every social class.

I saw that result a few days ago - wonder if yougov are doing it again.

It certainly is an eye opener for remainers who no doubt will be along to trash the wording or something else that doesn't suit their narrative

I'm no Remainer, but I personally think that you could sensibly dump much of the EU transition, but it wouldn't be stupid to stay in the customs union for a bit longer.

The real problem here is that we're under the gun. And other countries know this, and are likely to extract concessions from us with regard to dispute resolution mechanisms, or services access.

It's like if you're trying to buy a car. If the salesperson smells your desperation, you're going to get screwed. And trying to get all the EU's trade deals (and just as importantly, mutual recognition of standards agreements) replicated in a rush is us being desperate to deal.

Other people can smell our desperation and we are going to get screwed. As we are pretty much under the gun and the deadlines are getting tighter (apparently the EU's proposed Dec 2020 cutoff for transition exit is firming up), it's difficult to see it evolving any other way. I assume we'll get some deals, but it'll be like David Caruso's post-NYPD Blue career: some good parts and even (cf CSI Miami) some great ones, but not the movie leading-man career that was hypothesised before departure.

another_richard

FrancisUrquhart said:

Daily Mail Bingo....BBC, Oxfam, Savile, excessive public sector pay-offs, connections to sleazy Blair Labour party...full house!!!!

Beleaguered Oxfam trustee Caroline Thomson, who made a 'full and unqualified apology' to Britain and Haiti, is no stranger to being at the vortex of a major corporate scandal.

In a previous role at the BBC, she was dragged into the controversy over the cover-up of paedophile DJ Jimmy Savile's activities, as well as a row over excessive pay-offs for BBC executives.

There was widespread criticism of Ms Thomson — who uses her maiden name rather than her title by marriage, Lady Liddle — when, before she became chairman of Oxfam's trustees, she left the BBC (where she was chief operating officer) with a £670,000 pay-off — more than twice her £330,000 salary.

Astonishingly, she got this eye-watering sum even though she wanted to quit.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5388215/Oxfam-trustee-given-670-000-pay-BBC.html

Married to:

' Roger John Liddle, Baron Liddle (born 14 June 1947) is a British political adviser and consultant who is principally known for being Special Adviser on European matters to the former Prime Minister Tony Blair, and President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso. He also worked together with Peter Mandelson on books outlining the political philosophy of the Labour Party under Blair's leadership. He is chairperson of the international think tank Policy Network and Pro-Chancellor of the University of Lancaster. '

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Liddle,_Baron_Liddle

Daughter of:

' George Morgan Thomson, Baron Thomson of Monifieth, KT, PC, DL, FRSE (16 January 1921 – 3 October 2008) was a journalist and British politician who served as a Labour Party MP. He was a member of Harold Wilson's cabinet, and later became a European Commissioner. '

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Thomson,_Baron_Thomson_of_Monifieth

I'm sure she got all her very well paid positions entirely on merit.

AndyJS

Andrew Teale's excellent by-elections preview for this week:

http://britainelects.com/2018/02/13/previews-15-feb-2018/

viewcode

another_richard said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Daily Mail Bingo....BBC, Oxfam, Savile, excessive public sector pay-offs, connections to sleazy Blair Labour party...full house!!!!

Beleaguered Oxfam trustee Caroline Thomson, who made a 'full and unqualified apology' to Britain and Haiti, is no stranger to being at the vortex of a major corporate scandal.

In a previous role at the BBC, she was dragged into the controversy over the cover-up of paedophile DJ Jimmy Savile's activities, as well as a row over excessive pay-offs for BBC executives.

There was widespread criticism of Ms Thomson — who uses her maiden name rather than her title by marriage, Lady Liddle — when, before she became chairman of Oxfam's trustees, she left the BBC (where she was chief operating officer) with a £670,000 pay-off — more than twice her £330,000 salary.

Astonishingly, she got this eye-watering sum even though she wanted to quit.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5388215/Oxfam-trustee-given-670-000-pay-BBC.html

Married to:

' Roger John Liddle, Baron Liddle (born 14 June 1947) is a British political adviser and consultant who is principally known for being Special Adviser on European matters to the former Prime Minister Tony Blair, and President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso. He also worked together with Peter Mandelson on books outlining the political philosophy of the Labour Party under Blair's leadership. He is chairperson of the international think tank Policy Network and Pro-Chancellor of the University of Lancaster. '

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Liddle,_Baron_Liddle

Daughter of:

' George Morgan Thomson, Baron Thomson of Monifieth, KT, PC, DL, FRSE (16 January 1921 – 3 October 2008) was a journalist and British politician who served as a Labour Party MP. He was a member of Harold Wilson's cabinet, and later became a European Commissioner. '

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Thomson,_Baron_Thomson_of_Monifieth

I'm sure she got all her very well paid positions entirely on merit.

So she's incompetent and got her job thru connections despite manifest unfitness for it.

Pause.

So she'll be Foreign Secretary next week then...

Ah, my coat...

viewcode

AndyJS said:

Andrew Teale's excellent by-elections preview for this week:

http://britainelects.com/2018/02/13/previews-15-feb-2018/

@AndyJS, you've been trying hard this week with election stuff: well done, and don't think it's not been noticed. I tried to answer your Italian election question yesterday but it's been a bad week and I couldn't focus on a graph that, admittedly, looked like a cat had vomited felt pens onto graph paper. Please keep up the good work.

HYUFD

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

viewcode

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

Q1: How often do you whine about the EU?
a) Every day
b) Every hour
c) Every second
d) Continuously

viewcode

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

Q1: How often do you whine about the EU?
a) Every day
b) Every hour
c) Every second
d) Continuously

Q2: What is the minimum grounding a MP must have before appointed to Cabinet?
a) Is he oddly-dressed?
b) Is he oddly-dressed and speak pretentiously?
c) Is he oddly dressed, speak pretentiously, and have the backstory of a French aristocrat?
d) Is he Boris Johnson?

viewcode

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

Q1: How often do you whine about the EU?
a) Every day
b) Every hour
c) Every second
d) Continuously

Q2: What is the minimum grounding a MP must have before appointed to Cabinet?
a) Is he oddly-dressed?
b) Is he oddly-dressed and speak pretentiously?
c) Is he oddly dressed, speak pretentiously, and have the backstory of a French aristocrat?
d) Is he Boris Johnson?

Q3: Teresa May
a) Why?
b) How?
c) Why? Why? Oh blessed Lord, why????

AndyJS

viewcode said:

AndyJS said:

Andrew Teale's excellent by-elections preview for this week:

http://britainelects.com/2018/02/13/previews-15-feb-2018/

@AndyJS, you've been trying hard this week with election stuff: well done, and don't think it's not been noticed. I tried to answer your Italian election question yesterday but it's been a bad week and I couldn't focus on a graph that, admittedly, looked like a cat had vomited felt pens onto graph paper. Please keep up the good work.

Just to clarify, I am not Andrew Teale. He's a regular contributor to the Vote2012 forum.

viewcode

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

Q1: How often do you whine about the EU?
a) Every day
b) Every hour
c) Every second
d) Continuously

Q2: What is the minimum grounding a MP must have before appointed to Cabinet?
a) Is he oddly-dressed?
b) Is he oddly-dressed and speak pretentiously?
c) Is he oddly dressed, speak pretentiously, and have the backstory of a French aristocrat?
d) Is he Boris Johnson?

Q3: Teresa May
a) Why?
b) How?
c) Why? Why? Oh blessed Lord, why????

Q4: You have a small but workable majority and a major renegotiation coming up. Do you:
a) List the possibilities and aim for the most advantageous realistically achievable, whilst preparing contingency plans and planning for a worst-case scenario.
b) Spend £50-£100 million on a spec General Election that loses over 10 MPs fro your party, then waste another year thrashing around like a deranged herring.

viewcode

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

Q1: How often do you whine about the EU?
a) Every day
b) Every hour
c) Every second
d) Continuously

Q2: What is the minimum grounding a MP must have before appointed to Cabinet?
a) Is he oddly-dressed?
b) Is he oddly-dressed and speak pretentiously?
c) Is he oddly dressed, speak pretentiously, and have the backstory of a French aristocrat?
d) Is he Boris Johnson?

Q3: Teresa May
a) Why?
b) How?
c) Why? Why? Oh blessed Lord, why????

Q4: You have a small but workable majority and a major renegotiation coming up. Do you:
a) List the possibilities and aim for the most advantageous realistically achievable, whilst preparing contingency plans and planning for a worst-case scenario.
b) Spend £50-£100 million on a spec General Election that loses over 10 MPs from your party, then waste another year thrashing around like a deranged herring.

Q5: Appoint on:
a) Merit?
b) Nepotism?
c) Davina! It's been too long. Yes, Henley was fine this year. Love to your mother. Do you fancy being Home Secretary for a bit?

OldKingCole

AndyJS said:

Andrew Teale's excellent by-elections preview for this week:

http://britainelects.com/2018/02/13/previews-15-feb-2018/

Informative and much appreciated. And Good Morning all from a sunny and very pleasant Bangkok. Sadly we only have two more mornings here before returning to UK.

viewcode

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

Q1: How often do you whine about the EU?
a) Every day
b) Every hour
c) Every second
d) Continuously

Q2: What is the minimum grounding a MP must have before appointed to Cabinet?
a) Is he oddly-dressed?
b) Is he oddly-dressed and speak pretentiously?
c) Is he oddly dressed, speak pretentiously, and have the backstory of a French aristocrat?
d) Is he Boris Johnson?

Q3: Teresa May
a) Why?
b) How?
c) Why? Why? Oh blessed Lord, why????

Q4: You have a small but workable majority and a major renegotiation coming up. Do you:
a) List the possibilities and aim for the most advantageous realistically achievable, whilst preparing contingency plans and planning for a worst-case scenario.
b) Spend £50-£100 million on a spec General Election that loses over 10 MPs from your party, then waste another year thrashing around like a deranged herring.

Q5: Appoint on:
a) Merit?
b) Nepotism?
c) Davina! It's been too long. Yes, Henley was fine this year. Love to your mother. Do you fancy being Home Secretary for a bit?

Q6: Brexit. Do you:
a) List those things you need from the EU and can do without, start employing people to cope with new arrangements, obtain consensus on desired outcome, gather allies, understand the strengths and weaknesses of your counterparties and apply pressure and incentives to achieve the desired goal, monitoring progress against milestones and redeploying as weaknesses/shortfall become apparent.
b) Tweet about how terrible the EU is.

AndyJS

OldKingCole said:

AndyJS said:

Andrew Teale's excellent by-elections preview for this week:

http://britainelects.com/2018/02/13/previews-15-feb-2018/

Informative and much appreciated. And Good Morning all from a sunny and very pleasant Bangkok. Sadly we only have two more mornings here before returning to UK.

I've only been there once, in February 2014. Stayed at the Novotel next to Ploenchit monorail station. There were protests going on around that area at the time. It's a bit of a culture shock when you go there for the first time.

viewcode

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

Q1: How often do you whine about the EU?
a) Every day
b) Every hour
c) Every second
d) Continuously

Q2: What is the minimum grounding a MP must have before appointed to Cabinet?
a) Is he oddly-dressed?
b) Is he oddly-dressed and speak pretentiously?
c) Is he oddly dressed, speak pretentiously, and have the backstory of a French aristocrat?
d) Is he Boris Johnson?

Q3: Teresa May
a) Why?
b) How?
c) Why? Why? Oh blessed Lord, why????

Q4: You have a small but workable majority and a major renegotiation coming up. Do you:
a) List the possibilities and aim for the most advantageous realistically achievable, whilst preparing contingency plans and planning for a worst-case scenario.
b) Spend £50-£100 million on a spec General Election that loses over 10 MPs from your party, then waste another year thrashing around like a deranged herring.

Q5: Appoint on:
a) Merit?
b) Nepotism?
c) Davina! It's been too long. Yes, Henley was fine this year. Love to your mother. Do you fancy being Home Secretary for a bit?

Q6: Brexit. Do you:
a) List those things you need from the EU and can do without, start employing people to cope with new arrangements, obtain consensus on desired outcome, gather allies, understand the strengths and weaknesses of your counterparties and apply pressure and incentives to achieve the desired goal, monitoring progress against milestones and redeploying as weaknesses/shortfall become apparent.
b) Tweet about how terrible the EU is.

Q7: Ireland. Is it
a) Still in the UK?
b) Never in the UK?
c) Both simultaneously?
d) A willing patsy doing the EU's bidding, oh how could the inheritiors of Wolfe Tone, Michael Collins and Dana fall so, so low (swoons dramatically)

viewcode

I have to stop here otherwise it will get (too) ranty. Goodnight, folks: I'm sure you will bear my absence with fortitude...

OldKingCole

AndyJS said:

OldKingCole said:

AndyJS said:

Andrew Teale's excellent by-elections preview for this week:

http://britainelects.com/2018/02/13/previews-15-feb-2018/

Informative and much appreciated. And Good Morning all from a sunny and very pleasant Bangkok. Sadly we only have two more mornings here before returning to UK.

I've only been there once, in February 2014. Stayed at the Novotel next to Ploenchit monorail station. There were protests going on around that area at the time. It's a bit of a culture shock when you go there for the first time.

We've family here, including grandchildren. So we've been quite a lot. Our son lives outsie the city itself, so if there's anything happening there we're not affected.
Bro-in-law came to visit his nephew once; said he could never go again, couldn't stand the poverty. Told him that under no circumstances should he go to India!

ExiledInScotland

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

Have just done a YouGov and one of the extra questions was:

' When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen? '

The answers being:

(1) ' Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union '

or

(2) ' There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world '

And, to my surprise, option (1) leads by 49% to 13%.

Not only that but option (1) leads among every age group, avery voting group, every part of the country, every gender and every social class.

I would expect that it would. Frankly, devoid of context it sounds like by far the better option.

Here's the rub, though.

We're likely to leave the Customs Union without having made any real progress towards replicating the EU's existing arrangements. And it's likely to take a period of time before we even get back to parity.

How do you express that issue in a question, and quantify the impact?

Surely you're not suggesting that our experienced diplomats with all their 'expert' advisors are the world beaters we've been given to understand.

I think DfID is full of civil servants with little experience in international trade, being led by a minister who is careless of details, and the whole department is under exceptional time pressures.

I can't remember if I have told this story, but it could be that my father was a senior Civil Servant back in the day. His was the last generation to have directly negotiated treaties before EEC membership took competency. After the Brexit vote, various of his generation - old but not in their dotage - wrote to the Cabinet Office offering to train their current counterparts. The offer was politely declined because training was to be provided by the large consultancies. I suggest that that this tells us a lot about the state of the Civil Service that once bestrode the World like a colossus.

OldKingCole

ExiledInScotland said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

Have just done a YouGov and one of the extra questions was:

' When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen? '

The answers being:

(1) ' Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union '

or

(2) ' There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world '

And, to my surprise, option (1) leads by 49% to 13%.

Not only that but option (1) leads among every age group, avery voting group, every part of the country, every gender and every social class.

I would expect that it would. Frankly, devoid of context it sounds like by far the better option.

Here's the rub, though.

We're likely to leave the Customs Union without having made any real progress towards replicating the EU's existing arrangements. And it's likely to take a period of time before we even get back to parity.

How do you express that issue in a question, and quantify the impact?

Surely you're not suggesting that our experienced diplomats with all their 'expert' advisors are the world beaters we've been given to understand.

I think DfID is full of civil servants with little experience in international trade, being led by a minister who is careless of details, and the whole department is under exceptional time pressures.

I can't remember if I have told this story, but it could be that my father was a senior Civil Servant back in the day. His was the last generation to have directly negotiated treaties before EEC membership took competency. After the Brexit vote, various of his generation - old but not in their dotage - wrote to the Cabinet Office offering to train their current counterparts. The offer was politely declined because training was to be provided by the large consultancies. I suggest that that this tells us a lot about the state of the Civil Service that once bestrode the World like a colossus.

Take it that by 'larege consultancies' they meant such masters of the universe as Capita and Carillion!

Philip_Thompson

Not remotely surprised. Thought all along many UKIP voters were ex-Lib Dem none of the above voters.

PClipp

ExiledInScotland said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

Have just done a YouGov and one of the extra questions was:

' When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen? '

The answers being:

(1) ' Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union '

or

(2) ' There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world '

And, to my surprise, option (1) leads by 49% to 13%.

Not only that but option (1) leads among every age group, avery voting group, every part of the country, every gender and every social class.

I would expect that it would. Frankly, devoid of context it sounds like by far the better option.

Here's the rub, though.

We're likely to leave the Customs Union without having made any real progress towards replicating the EU's existing arrangements. And it's likely to take a period of time before we even get back to parity.

How do you express that issue in a question, and quantify the impact?

Surely you're not suggesting that our experienced diplomats with all their 'expert' advisors are the world beaters we've been given to understand.

I think DfID is full of civil servants with little experience in international trade, being led by a minister who is careless of details, and the whole department is under exceptional time pressures.

I can't remember if I have told this story, but it could be that my father was a senior Civil Servant back in the day. His was the last generation to have directly negotiated treaties before EEC membership took competency. After the Brexit vote, various of his generation - old but not in their dotage - wrote to the Cabinet Office offering to train their current counterparts. The offer was politely declined because training was to be provided by the large consultancies. I suggest that that this tells us a lot about the state of the Civil Service that once bestrode the World like a colossus.

It certainly tells us a lot about how the Conservatives have sold out to large (international) consultancies, and constantly belittled their own countrymen, who work in the public
interest.

Philip_Thompson

gettingbetter said:

DavidL said:

Toms said:

US gun sales falling. The Chump Trump slump?
Better late than not at all I guess.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/13/remington-bankruptcy-guns-trump-slump-sales

7.7m "super owners" have 140 guns apiece? Christ.

you have misread the article.

No he's not.

The US has the highest rate of gun ownership in the world with 88 guns for every 100 people. But just 3% of the population owns an average of 17 guns each, with an estimated 7.7 million super-owners in possession of 140 guns apiece.

RobD

CON share holding steady.

RobD

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

I got Traditional Conservative, despite saying that welfare was a good safety net, and approving of gay marriage. What mirror universe have I woken up in

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

What mirror universe have I woken up in

Captain RobD! Don't you bow before your Emperor???

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

What mirror universe have I woken up in

Captain RobD! Don't you bow before your Emperor???

I've not watched the new Star Trek

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

What mirror universe have I woken up in

Captain RobD! Don't you bow before your Emperor???

I've not watched the new Star Trek

No?? I assumed by "mirror universe" you had!

Oh well, no more spoilers. But I enjoyed the first season very much. It's on Netflix or CBS All Access.

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

What mirror universe have I woken up in

Captain RobD! Don't you bow before your Emperor???

I've not watched the new Star Trek

No?? I assumed by "mirror universe" you had!

Oh well, no more spoilers. But I enjoyed the first season very much. It's on Netflix or CBS Access.

I'm old fashioned and prefer the older series. I just finished watching through TNG over the last six or so months. Oh what a nerd I am!

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

What mirror universe have I woken up in

Captain RobD! Don't you bow before your Emperor???

I've not watched the new Star Trek

No?? I assumed by "mirror universe" you had!

Oh well, no more spoilers. But I enjoyed the first season very much. It's on Netflix or CBS Access.

I'm old fashioned and prefer the older series. I just finished watching through TNG over the last six or so months. Oh what a nerd I am!

I used to watch TNG as a kid, can't believe it's over 30 years old!

Sandpit

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

I got Traditional Conservative, despite saying that welfare was a good safety net, and approving of gay marriage. What mirror universe have I woken up in

Me too, think their algothm needs a little work.

NickPalmer

AndyJS said:

Andrew Teale's excellent by-elections preview for this week:

http://britainelects.com/2018/02/13/previews-15-feb-2018/

Amazing depth of coverage. Unpromising bunch for Labour - Colgate looks dicey and I can't see any potential gains except conceivably the Scottish one. There should be a LibDem successor three, and possibly a Green one.

AndyJS

OldKingCole said:

AndyJS said:

OldKingCole said:

AndyJS said:

Andrew Teale's excellent by-elections preview for this week:

http://britainelects.com/2018/02/13/previews-15-feb-2018/

Informative and much appreciated. And Good Morning all from a sunny and very pleasant Bangkok. Sadly we only have two more mornings here before returning to UK.

I've only been there once, in February 2014. Stayed at the Novotel next to Ploenchit monorail station. There were protests going on around that area at the time. It's a bit of a culture shock when you go there for the first time.

We've family here, including grandchildren. So we've been quite a lot. Our son lives outsie the city itself, so if there's anything happening there we're not affected.
Bro-in-law came to visit his nephew once; said he could never go again, couldn't stand the poverty. Told him that under no circumstances should he go to India!

I didn't think the poverty was that bad in Bangkok (relatively speaking), although I was mainly in the central districts of the city which are probably the wealthiest areas. Almost everyone seemed to be busy doing things which usually gives a positive impression.

IanB2

Philip_Thompson said:

Not remotely surprised. Thought all along many UKIP voters were ex-Lib Dem none of the above voters.

I made this point consistently early last year, but I don't recollect getting much support for it on PB!

MarqueeMark

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

One Nation Conservative.

AlastairMeeks

I see Boris Johnson’s idea of wooing Remain supporters is to accuse them of betrayal. The Conservatives really are clueless.

rcs1000

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

One Nation Conservative.

I got Neo Fascist.

Scott_P

Boris Johnson authorised briefings ahead of a speech today setting out his vision of Brexit. Presumably he didn’t trust himself to be coherent on a single hearing. Mr Johnson embraced Brexit in 2016 without a plan for accomplishing it and his thinking shows no sign of having advanced since. His speech will set out a future for Britain purportedly unshackled by EU regulation. It is in reality the foreign secretary who is travelling light, unburdened as he is by reflectiveness, historical understanding or awareness of the derision he inspires among Britain’s allies.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/boris-johnsons-big-idea-on-brexit-is-just-preposterous-th6hwmgtq

AlastairMeeks

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

Conservatives can’t want to Remain. That in a nutshell is how the Conservatives are excluding 48% of the population from supporting them.

NickPalmer

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

One Nation Conservative.

I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party".

DecrepitJohnL

Philip_Thompson said:

Not remotely surprised. Thought all along many UKIP voters were ex-Lib Dem none of the above voters.

Something else Cameron got wrong.

Nigelb

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

New quiz from Activate - What kind of Conservative are you? I got Liberal Conservative, perhaps surprisingly
https://www.playbuzz.com/samrvg10/what-kind-of-conservative-are-you

One Nation Conservative.

I'm a Liberal Conservative, "You believe in the strong economic principles of the party".

But you also believe in the strong economic principles of Mr Corbyn, so anything is possible, surely ?

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

Interesting but I wonder if the massive increase in UKIP seats is from a vanishingly low base and not necessarily productive of wins. Also the Lib Dems have always been rather good at bye elections. May will be a much more realistic test of whether they are on their way back.

?

There is not a massive increase in the number of UKIP seats. You have misread the graph.

The interesting nugget out of this graphic is that there appears to be an almost one-to-one shift in votes between Kippers and LibDems, in former UKIP seats.

Now, I suspect that the sample size is small (and therefore you shouldn't read too much into it). That being said, that the LDs are performing best in former Kipper seats is interesting, and is a trend to watch out for in the May local elections.

I didn't say that they had done best there. What the chart shows is that it is in the UKIP seats that the Lib Dems have had the biggest increase in their vote share. The point I was making that the base (and indeed the sample size, as you point out) might have been very small. If you had 5% before an increase of 22.1% doesn't necessarily make you a winner.

Nigelb

An interesting report on the Brexit state of play visa a vis the US:
https://www.politico.eu/article/britains-bff-unconvinced-by-its-post-brexit-vision/

Not overwhelmingly encouraging.