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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Paying the price of TMay’s GE17 gamble. Tonight the saboteurs
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Paying the price of TMay’s GE17 gamble. Tonight the saboteurs struck back and won
We all remember the memorable front page of Dacre’s Daily Mail the day after Theresa May called her snap general election in April.
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It makes Brexiteers far more relaxed about the ups and downs since.
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/941036751266762752
https://mobile.twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/941045396146704389
Really? Parliament will get a vote on the final Brexit deal struck with Brussels. That's all.
I can't for the life of me see why the government felt they had to die in a ditch over that one. In fact, it will help them immensely because Parlaiment will pass a sensible Brexit with a big majority and the Tory hard-brexiteers will just have to accept it.
heavy price.
Sun investigation smashes bookies’ multi-million pound plot to rig third Ashes test
Two bookies offered to sell us details of rigged periods of play which could be bet on to win millions of pounds.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5133944/sun-investigation-smashes-bookies-multi-million-pound-plot-to-rig-third-ashes-test/
A pair of lovers in India have been accused of killing the woman's husband and then seeking cosmetic surgery so the male lover could take his place.
Acid was poured in the male lover's face in a staged attack, with the pair planning to say it had been transformed after surgery, police in the southern state of Telangana said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-42335236
My totally uneducated guess is the SPD will cave - apparently the germans really don;t like this instability, and a new election would probably return something similar, so the pressure is on.
I haven't got time to hang around tonight, but I need to point out that the Alabama election is yet another case where a mode effect may be in play. Consider
Alabama 17: robocall polls vs personal contact polls
GE 17: polls with turnout models vs polls with corrected sample frames
EUref 16: telephone vs online polls
GE15: I forget which, but it was that Matt Singh thing
If this does turn out to be another surprising election - Moore wins convincingly or the Dem squeaks thru - then it's another twig on the evidence pile for the proposition that the detection of a mode effect may be the best way forward for betting.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1799560#Comment_1799560
This does not indicate which way to bet, but it does mean that we may be able to predict a polling upset before the polls close.
' NHS employment increased by 8,000 (0.5%) on the quarter and 33,000 (2.1%) on the year. At 1.629 million it is the highest level since comparable records began and accounts for 30% of total public sector employment (PSE). '
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/publicsectorpersonnel/bulletins/publicsectoremployment/september2017
In fact from 1999 to 2017 full time equivalent employment in the NHS has increased from under a million to approaching a million and a half.
But, the incessant Remainer crowing this evening is starting to get on my nerves, so I will log off for the night.
Interesting, however, that the possibility of a Marxist in No.10 as a result of this is listed as more damning than betraying their party leader and even more damning than betraying Brexit - are the Mail saying it is ok to abandon Brexit if that is the price to avoid Corbyn in No, 10?
I can't recall a single Conservative thing she'd said, defended, or done. And that goes right back to when she was elected, well before Brexit, when she was pulling the same stunts with Cameron and Osborne.
Was it just to piss all over it from the inside?
They haven’t achieved anything positive for the county with their petulance - quite the opposite.
Barnier will be a happy man tonight.
In the July to September 2017 quarter just finished there were a total of 457,000 people employed in the entire agriculture, fisheries and forestry sector.
Now lets compare this total to that of the same quarter in previous years:
2017 457,000
2016 420,000
2015 427,000
2014 443,000
2013 373,000
2012 404,000
2011 434,000
2010 410,000
2009 399,000
2008 390,000
2007 380,000
In fact you have to go back 20 years to find agricultural sector employment at the same level.
Likewise the April to June and January to March quarters also had the highest level of agricultural employment since the 1990s.
So there's no shortage of agricultural workers and if any farmer is whining that he can't get workers its because he wont pay a fair wage.
I do actually think that in this case it is kind of pointless as the choice they will have will be between accepting whatever deal comes back or having a hard Brexit. But the basic principle of Parliament having a say in these matters is not one that I think anyone who values democracy should criticise.
So if MPs were to vote the deal down, we'd be out with no deal - which would be pretty catastrophic.
Working backwards that means to be out with a deal, parliament has to vote the deal through.
Voting the deal down doesn't stop brexit, it stops the deal.
Seriously, what exactly is it you want? That people cannot stomach these sorts of headlines? We cannot travel back in time and reverse our votes because of headlines like this, so what can we do but criticise it, which as you point out is not enough for you.
So what you've just admitted is you don't want anything from anybody, you just want a great big sulk while getting up on a great big high horse, since nothing anyone can do will be enough. You truly do not see how you are exactly the kind of blinkered, emotional obsessive you criticise do you? Read what you just wrote for christ;s sake: 'Can Leavers disown this?' 'Ok' 'It's not enough!' That's practically bipolar, its absurdity, you are demanding things, then admit if people do it you'll hold the same view. Utter illogic, and shows the utter lie when you pretend you are not so emotionally affected by all this.
Congratulations, you are better than me, I hope that will make you happy as it is clearly the only response you ever want to hear on the subject, when others, who are even more remainy, are willing to give and take on an issue. Have a wonderful day.
I agree,she seems to have joined the wrong party.
This was a vote for a vote..
FPTP forces pries to be broad churches - JRM to Heidi Allen, Tony Blair to John McDonnell. You can expel the ones near the edge, but it makes a smaller tent...
It's not especially chaotic, but it's slow, as the SPD are as hard to persuade as the LibDems would have been after 2015. The problem, as you've said in another post, is that polls suggest that a new election would produce much the same result - Liberals slightly down, Greens and Left slightly up, nothing enough to matter.
Letting your standards slip ?
https://www.politico.eu/article/david-cameron-to-trump-your-fake-news-act-is-dangerous/
As the LibDems didn't stand last time, the swing will be huge, though the turnout was feeble as expected. They fought a good professional campaign with 3 leaflets and canvasssing and knockup and all parties thought they were probably going to take it - Labour's effort was more basic (a couple of leaflets) and the Tories suffer from over-exposure here - they and Ratepayer held every single seat on the council, and some people felt a change would be healthy. This is a constituency where a certain amont of discreet tactical voting goes on.
I ask because the ONS has got nearly 12 million working days lost to strikes in that month (and plenty more in August and October 1979) - approximately four times the number lost in each of the months of steelworkers and miners strikes or the Winter of Discontent.
Possibly some sort of public sector strike action ?
If the ONS haven't made a mistake then I'm amazed that such strikes aren't in widespread public memory.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/1999/sep/05/columnists.observerbusiness2
https://classics.honestjohn.co.uk/news/archive/1979-09/engineers-strike/
Most. Science. Fiction. Crime. Evah.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42344180
Govt. defeat virginity was lost. Most MP's haven't experienced it.
Neither pregnancy nor premature ejaculation occurred.
In fact it was rather pleasurable.
Which will make it so much easier next time.
And it won't be Brexit or a Budget, but something else...
They are missing John Stevenson.
Someone said Charlie Elphicke rebelled - in fact he abstained.
Main reason the Govt lost was only 2 Lab MPs voted with the Govt - Field and Hoey - when there are approx 7 Lab MPs who generally vote with the Govt on Brexit - eg also Stringer, Skinner, Hopkins (Ind at moment).
It was so good you’ll want to have a cigarette afterwards every time you watch it.
Funniest film I’ve seen in a long time.
I promise I won’t spoil it for anyone but the highlights of it were
i) Chewy revealing he is Rey’s father
ii) Kylo Ren’s 22 minute long power ballad half way through
iii) The sex scene between C3PO and BB8
iv) That fight scene
iv) End credits ending with Rick Astley’s ‘Never Gonna Give You Up’ blaring out was a bold choice.
Presumably he was paired?
Though the way he's been playing, a desperate gamble on a replacement might not be out of order.
Stoneman might not be the greatest batsman, but he's got serious bottle.
Xenophobic lies were passed over in silence because the referendum was seen as more important. Judges have been described as enemies of the people because they ruled that Parliament had a say in the Article 50 process: so-called moderate Leavers murmured into their cocoa. Those wanting rigour in overseeing Brexit have been called saboteurs, traitors and quislings. What do so-called moderates do? Nothing.
You have to conclude that these so-called moderates still regard Brexit as more important than dealing with the damage done by talking of political opponents as if they were military enemies. Which is why Brexit is going to continue to damage Britain indefinitely. The so-called moderates prefer to stick with the extremists than fight to re-establish political norms that allow the country to function with a level of cohesion. So the only way in which they're moderates is that they let others do their dirty work.
you spend so much time issuing ranty troll bait no-ones going to respond in the way you wish
you;re like the DUP with a megaphone
tell the other half to buy you a bowler hat for Christmas
The Daily Heil is becoming almost a parody of itself!
So, no change there.
More generally, last night’s vote is only a problem for the government if you believe it is dishonest.
Toby Roland-Jones and Dawid Malan are decent enough cricketers, but if they played for any other county they would still be waiting for their first caps.