JRM combines three key features that make him electable: he is authentic, he is honest, and he appears to stand for something, even at the risk of it being unpopular. Conviction politicians are in vogue because in times of crisis you do not want someone who blows with the prevailing wind.
What we are seeing is a backlash against years of career politicians who seem to care about nothing more than power for power's sake, the public being sick of a "game of thrones" approach to politics if you will. It is the same reason Corbyn is popular (even if he does have a whiff of the High Sparrow about him).
A good point. People are seriously fed up with the professional politicians who believe in nothing except power itself.
The problem with conviction politicians, is that they are unlikely to change their convictions as the facts change.
The best leaders have solid "core beliefs" but also a willingness to show flexibility when circumstances require. Both Blair and Thatcher in their early years are good examples - they moved their parties quite a long way away from their previous comfort zones and were very successfully electorally in doing so. But it was always clear what their core beliefs were and they were both careful not to push their colleagues too far in order to keep the show on the road. Thatcher did not try to restore the death penalty for instance and Blair resisted the temptation to join the Euro. But in their later years both of them came to believe in their own myth and we all know how it ended.
Corbyn is showing some signs of flexibility both in his approach to Brexit and his speech to the CBI was notably more friendly to business than might have been expected in the past. But there is a long way to go. The Tories, on the other hand, seem completely, impervious to the ongoing disaster of Brexit and show no willingness to modify their position even slightly as the country hurtles toward the cliff.
Mr. rkrkrk, the weirdest finding (from years ago so no link, alas) I remember from the US was on trust. It was about how likely you were to give a lift to a hitchhiker if they were X. The least trusted, being tied on dodginess, categories were rapists and atheists.
I cannot fathom the thinking (I use the term generously) that can't separate in moral terms people who don't believe in a god, and people who are violent sex attackers. But there we are.
Well God was a violent sex offender.
He impregnated Mary without her consent.
And of course, Mary was probably about 13 given that she was married but still a virgin.
But that's still hardly the worst of His crimes (if we are to judge gods by the morals of men, which we shouldn't).
Mr. rkrkrk, the weirdest finding (from years ago so no link, alas) I remember from the US was on trust. It was about how likely you were to give a lift to a hitchhiker if they were X. The least trusted, being tied on dodginess, categories were rapists and atheists.
I cannot fathom the thinking (I use the term generously) that can't separate in moral terms people who don't believe in a god, and people who are violent sex attackers. But there we are.
Well God was a violent sex offender.
He impregnated Mary without her consent.
And of course, Mary was probably about 13 given that she was married but still a virgin.
But that's still hardly the worst of His crimes (if we are to judge gods by the morals of men, which we shouldn't).
Satan never committed a genocide like God did with the flood, which God did after a fit of pique.
Mr. rkrkrk, the weirdest finding (from years ago so no link, alas) I remember from the US was on trust. It was about how likely you were to give a lift to a hitchhiker if they were X. The least trusted, being tied on dodginess, categories were rapists and atheists.
I cannot fathom the thinking (I use the term generously) that can't separate in moral terms people who don't believe in a god, and people who are violent sex attackers. But there we are.
Well God was a violent sex offender.
He impregnated Mary without her consent.
Yes, but He sent his lawyer Gabriel to negotiate a settlement.
On topic, the punters are misleading themselves. JRM is fine as a signpost backbencher but could't, as leader, confine himself to the sort of interviews he's conducted so far. Yes, he's polite, knowledgeable and intelligent but that's nothing like enough.
What is his ability to manage a government and parliamentary party like? What are his negotiating skills like? How well does he advocate a policy that he's not that interested in (and as a PM, you must be prepared to advocate your party's policy across the board; a backbencher has a luxury in choosing his or her interests).
On the face of it, that poll shows a greater degree of tolerance, but in reality it doesn't. It shows that Americans will increasingly vote for a sonofabitch so long as he's our sonofabitch.
The British electorate will never choose a tit like him to become PM. Even the Tory membership should realise this, surely?
Substitute 'Labour' for 'Tory' and get instant déjà vu.
Yeh, we live in a world in which 41% voted for Corbyn, the Donald was elected as US President, Roy Moore will probably be elected to the Senate, 60,000 people demonstrated in favour of an ethnically pure Poland, and Macron emerged from nowhere to become French President, with a majority in the Assembly.
Mr. rkrkrk, the weirdest finding (from years ago so no link, alas) I remember from the US was on trust. It was about how likely you were to give a lift to a hitchhiker if they were X. The least trusted, being tied on dodginess, categories were rapists and atheists.
I cannot fathom the thinking (I use the term generously) that can't separate in moral terms people who don't believe in a god, and people who are violent sex attackers. But there we are.
Well God was a violent sex offender.
He impregnated Mary without her consent.
Yes, but He sent his lawyer Gabriel to negotiate a settlement.
Luke also has persuasive evidence of an NDA... "But Mary kept all these things, and pondered them in her heart..."
On topic, the punters are misleading themselves. JRM is fine as a signpost backbencher but could't, as leader, confine himself to the sort of interviews he's conducted so far. Yes, he's polite, knowledgeable and intelligent but that's nothing like enough.
What is his ability to manage a government and parliamentary party like? What are his negotiating skills like? How well does he advocate a policy that he's not that interested in (and as a PM, you must be prepared to advocate your party's policy across the board; a backbencher has a luxury in choosing his or her interests).
The only Mogg Downing St needs is Larry.
How much are they misleading themselves, though ? The selectorate and party electorate are very small indeed, and of not unquestionable judgment... and in these febrile times the ridiculous is not necessarily the same thing as the unlikely.
Has lack of permission ever stopped you before ? But, yes, of course.
In deepest Alabama it is the wedding night of Billy-Bob and Mary-Sue.
They are about to consummate their marriage and Mary-Sue says 'Be a gentle, I'm a virgin'
Billy-Bob is furious he says 'A virgin? you told me you were experienced, I'm leaving you' and storms off back to his parents to tell them his wife is a virgin.
Billy-Bob's Dad tells his son 'Son, you did the right thing, if she's not good enough for her own family, then she's not good enough for this family'
Has lack of permission ever stopped you before ? But, yes, of course.
In deepest Alabama it is the wedding night of Billy-Bob and Mary-Sue.
They are about to consummate their marriage and Mary-Sue says 'Be a gentle, I'm a virgin'
Billy-Bob is furious he says 'A virgin? you told me you were experienced, I'm leaving you' and storms off back to his parents to tell them his wife is a virgin.
Billy-Bob's Dad tells his son 'Son, you did the right thing, if she's not good enough for her own family, then she's not good enough for this family'
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
I'm now buying into gold and stocking up on tinned food and fresh water. It's going to be the shitshow to end all shitshows. A bigger shitshow than Liverpool's performance against Man City.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
That's a bit odd, because surely it has to be in the form of a bilateral Treaty (Citizens rights/Implementation). So in essence, what Davis must be saying is that the permission for the passing of the treaty will come in the form of an act of Parliament.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
That's a bit odd, because surely it has to be in the form of a bilateral Treaty (Citizens rights/Implementation). So in essence, what Davis must be saying is that the permission for the passing of the treaty will come in the form of an act of Parliament.
Like the 1972 Act itself, the treaty had already been signed.
Has lack of permission ever stopped you before ? But, yes, of course.
In deepest Alabama it is the wedding night of Billy-Bob and Mary-Sue.
They are about to consummate their marriage and Mary-Sue says 'Be a gentle, I'm a virgin'
Billy-Bob is furious he says 'A virgin? you told me you were experienced, I'm leaving you' and storms off back to his parents to tell them his wife is a virgin.
Billy-Bob's Dad tells his son 'Son, you did the right thing, if she's not good enough for her own family, then she's not good enough for this family'
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
I'm now buying into gold and stocking up on tinned food and fresh water. It's going to be the shitshow to end all shitshows. A bigger shitshow than Liverpool's performance against Man City.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
I'm now buying into gold and stocking up on tinned food and fresh water. It's going to be the shitshow to end all shitshows. A bigger shitshow than Liverpool's performance against Man City.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
I'm now buying into gold and stocking up on tinned food and fresh water. It's going to be the shitshow to end all shitshows. A bigger shitshow than Liverpool's performance against Man City.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
That rather assumes that there's going to be a deal.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
I'm now buying into gold and stocking up on tinned food and fresh water. It's going to be the shitshow to end all shitshows. A bigger shitshow than Liverpool's performance against Man City.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
That rather assumes that there's going to be a deal.
It also assumes that businesses will wait until the end of the process before making decisions.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
I'm now buying into gold and stocking up on tinned food and fresh water. It's going to be the shitshow to end all shitshows. A bigger shitshow than Liverpool's performance against Man City.
If anyone has the faintest idea how a vote by MPs on the deal can conceivably be anything other than a meaningless rubber-stamping job, I'm sure Sir Keir would like to hear from you.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
That rather assumes that there's going to be a deal.
And given that Article 50 has already been triggered the UK will still leave the EU in March 2019 whether or not a new Act is passed. The only way it can be stopped is by revoking Article 50 which would require the EU to agree (the legal position may be that the UK could revoke unilaterally but in practice a last-minute revocation would only be possible if the EU was in agreement). N'est-ce pas?
I think Davis is more likely to succeed May as PM, hence he is joint favourite with Mogg but if and when the Tories go back into opposition Mogg must be favourite to become Leader of the Opposition to Corbyn's Premiership.
If anyone has the faintest idea how a vote by MPs on the deal can conceivably be anything other than a meaningless rubber-stamping job, I'm sure Sir Keir would like to hear from you.
An amendment that said: "no, this isn't good enough, so the government is instructed to withdraw the Article 50 notice forthwith and Britain will stay in the EU instead".
Such a withdrawal notice would probably not be legally effective but politically it probably would be.
And given that Article 50 has already been triggered the UK will still leave the EU in March 2019 whether or not a new Act is passed. The only way it can be stopped is by revoking Article 50 which would require the EU to agree (the legal position may be that the UK could revoke unilaterally but in practice a last-minute revocation would only be possible if the EU was in agreement). N'est-ce pas?
Not the 'EU', but the EU27. I'm not sure anyone knows for sure whether that means the EU27 unanimously and/or whether it would require formal treaty ratification. It might also require consent from the European Parliament.
In other words, it ain't gonna happen. There simply isn't time even if there were broadly the will.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
That rather assumes that there's going to be a deal.
And given that Article 50 has already been triggered the UK will still leave the EU in March 2019 whether or not a new Act is passed. The only way it can be stopped is by revoking Article 50 which would require the EU to agree (the legal position may be that the UK could revoke unilaterally but in practice a last-minute revocation would only be possible if the EU was in agreement). N'est-ce pas?
I still don't see how it could be revocable without the consent of all the other States.
Otherwise, any country or group of countries could play cat and mouse with the EU.
An amendment that said: "no, this isn't good enough, so the government is instructed to withdraw the Article 50 notice forthwith and Britain will stay in the EU instead".
Such a withdrawal notice would probably not be legally effective but politically it probably would be.
It would be politically effective for the few weeks before the opposition became the government, and then was landed with the legal (and political) problem.
"The treatment of Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe by the Iranians is being given succour by the socialists opposite": @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
Yes, and just think how much better an attack line like this would have worked if Johnson hadn't put his foot in it.
He should be sacked for political incompetence and diplomatic incompetence.
Sacking him would be rewarding the Iranians - normal rules don't apply.
Sacking him would protect future British citizens who might one day need the services of the FCO.
As a dual citizen I thought you couldn't request consular assistance in the other country you are a national of?
Correct. But again whilst you may not be entitled to help from the FCO, you would at least expect they would not do something to cause you actual harm.
By 37% to 28% Alabama evangelicals say they are more likely to vote for Roy Moore following the allegations of sexual misconduct with children.
That says a lot about the evangelicals...
twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/929797623770255360
On the face of it, that poll shows a greater degree of tolerance, but in reality it doesn't. It shows that Americans will increasingly vote for a sonofabitch so long as he's our sonofabitch.
'Twas ever thus.... look how many American TV preachers and such like have been caught in tax evasion or using prostitutes etc and they just go on TV and say "See - even a godly man like me can be tempted by Satan" and then sit back and watch the forgiveness money roll in.
And given that Article 50 has already been triggered the UK will still leave the EU in March 2019 whether or not a new Act is passed. The only way it can be stopped is by revoking Article 50 which would require the EU to agree (the legal position may be that the UK could revoke unilaterally but in practice a last-minute revocation would only be possible if the EU was in agreement). N'est-ce pas?
Not the 'EU', but the EU27. I'm not sure anyone knows for sure whether that means the EU27 unanimously and/or whether it would require formal treaty ratification. It might also require consent from the European Parliament.
In other words, it ain't gonna happen. There simply isn't time even if there were broadly the will.
As I understand it the decision to grant an extension requires unanimous agreement. I would have thought the same would apply to reversal even if that were legally possible - which would be decided by the ECJ since it is not covered in the treaty.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now. He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it. That means MPs will be able to vote on it. He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period. This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says. Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it. This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
That rather assumes that there's going to be a deal.
And given that Article 50 has already been triggered the UK will still leave the EU in March 2019 whether or not a new Act is passed. The only way it can be stopped is by revoking Article 50 which would require the EU to agree (the legal position may be that the UK could revoke unilaterally but in practice a last-minute revocation would only be possible if the EU was in agreement). N'est-ce pas?
I still don't see how it could be revocable without the consent of all the other States. Otherwise, any country or group of countries could play cat and mouse with the EU.
Isn`t that precisely what Mrs May and her sidekicks are doing now? Playing cat and mouse with the EU and the economic future of the entire population of the UK?
And given that Article 50 has already been triggered the UK will still leave the EU in March 2019 whether or not a new Act is passed. The only way it can be stopped is by revoking Article 50 which would require the EU to agree (the legal position may be that the UK could revoke unilaterally but in practice a last-minute revocation would only be possible if the EU was in agreement). N'est-ce pas?
Not the 'EU', but the EU27. I'm not sure anyone knows for sure whether that means the EU27 unanimously and/or whether it would require formal treaty ratification. It might also require consent from the European Parliament.
In other words, it ain't gonna happen. There simply isn't time even if there were broadly the will.
As I understand it the decision to grant an extension requires unanimous agreement. I would have thought the same would apply to reversal even if that were legally possible - which would be decided by the ECJ since it is not covered in the treaty.
Yes, I think that must be right, but IANAL (and even the Ls don't seem to be able to agree on any of this!).
Of course, it must be legally possible for all the 27 to agree unanimously to accept a revocation by treaty change, but that would be a long-drawn out and potentially uncertain course.
An amendment that said: "no, this isn't good enough, so the government is instructed to withdraw the Article 50 notice forthwith and Britain will stay in the EU instead".
Such a withdrawal notice would probably not be legally effective but politically it probably would be.
It would be politically effective for the few weeks before the opposition became the government, and then was landed with the legal (and political) problem.
I'm sure they'd be happy to have the legal and political problem then.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
That rather assumes that there's going to be a deal.
And given that Article 50 has already been triggered the UK will still leave the EU in March 2019 whether or not a new Act is passed. The only way it can be stopped is by revoking Article 50 which would require the EU to agree (the legal position may be that the UK could revoke unilaterally but in practice a last-minute revocation would only be possible if the EU was in agreement). N'est-ce pas?
I still don't see how it could be revocable without the consent of all the other States.
Otherwise, any country or group of countries could play cat and mouse with the EU.
Yes. I think the EU would insist on the UK agreeing not to reinvoke it again for a long time - and perhaps even take it out of the treaty altogether, which would be very hard for the UK to swallow. Though it's not totally beyond the bounds of possibility if the worst case scenarios such as this one turn out to be correct.
An amendment that said: "no, this isn't good enough, so the government is instructed to withdraw the Article 50 notice forthwith and Britain will stay in the EU instead".
Such a withdrawal notice would probably not be legally effective but politically it probably would be.
It would be politically effective for the few weeks before the opposition became the government, and then was landed with the legal (and political) problem.
I'm sure they'd be happy to have the legal and political problem then.
Do you think so? I'm not so sure, it would be the humdinger of all nightmares if as a result we crashed out anyway with no deal. In that scenario they couldn't escape blame.
The Tories need Rees Mogg in charge. It’s the only way to tame their right flank. Ultimately, the Conservative party is deeply pragmatic. It will see how the Moggster and his policies fare under the harsh, unstinting glare of the spotlight and will move back to the centre.
Could someone explain this to me. Exactly what sort of political games are the MPs playing?
The bill comes before them. They don't like it (they won't because they don't want to leave) so they vote against. We then leave without a deal. Is that a triumph? Or can they amend it to say we ignore the people and stay in. After all, it was only the common as muck who voted yes.
I can see that will be accepted, and everyone will live happily in our EU paradise.
And given that Article 50 has already been triggered the UK will still leave the EU in March 2019 whether or not a new Act is passed. The only way it can be stopped is by revoking Article 50 which would require the EU to agree (the legal position may be that the UK could revoke unilaterally but in practice a last-minute revocation would only be possible if the EU was in agreement). N'est-ce pas?
Not the 'EU', but the EU27. I'm not sure anyone knows for sure whether that means the EU27 unanimously and/or whether it would require formal treaty ratification. It might also require consent from the European Parliament.
In other words, it ain't gonna happen. There simply isn't time even if there were broadly the will.
As I understand it the decision to grant an extension requires unanimous agreement. I would have thought the same would apply to reversal even if that were legally possible - which would be decided by the ECJ since it is not covered in the treaty.
Yes, I think that must be right, but IANAL (and even the Ls don't seem to be able to agree on any of this!).
Of course, it must be legally possible for all the 27 to agree unanimously to accept a revocation by treaty change, but that would be a long-drawn out and potentially uncertain course.
Didn't what's his face during his 36 tweet extravaganza say that the feedback he was getting was that an A50 extension would be granted in a heartbeat?
Could someone explain this to me. Exactly what sort of political games are the MPs playing?
The bill comes before them. They don't like it (they won't because they don't want to leave) so they vote against. We then leave without a deal. Is that a triumph? Or can they amend it to say we ignore the people and stay in. After all, it was only the common as muck who voted yes.
I can see that will be accepted, and everyone will live happily in our EU paradise.
Any MP brave enough (or dumb enough) to vote to reverse the referendum will be committing political suicide.
So as you say the choice the MPs will have is accept the terms put forward by the Government/EU deal or accept a hard Brexit.
An amendment that said: "no, this isn't good enough, so the government is instructed to withdraw the Article 50 notice forthwith and Britain will stay in the EU instead".
Such a withdrawal notice would probably not be legally effective but politically it probably would be.
It would be politically effective for the few weeks before the opposition became the government, and then was landed with the legal (and political) problem.
I'm sure they'd be happy to have the legal and political problem then.
Do you think so? I'm not so sure, it would be the humdinger of all nightmares if as a result we crashed out anyway with no deal. In that scenario they couldn't escape blame.
I do think so. They'd expect a fair wind from Brussels in the circumstances. I expect they'd see it as well worth the gamble.
Didn't what's his face during his 36 tweet extravaganza say that the feedback he was getting was that an A50 extension would be granted in a heartbeat?
Maybe it would. How could anyone know in advance, and know for sure, and know for sure that we wouldn't unexpectedly get caught out by some minor state throwing a wobbly?
That is the entire problem - the sequences are all wrong, and the result of no agreement is not the status quo.
Has lack of permission ever stopped you before ? But, yes, of course.
In deepest Alabama it is the wedding night of Billy-Bob and Mary-Sue.
They are about to consummate their marriage and Mary-Sue says 'Be a gentle, I'm a virgin'
Billy-Bob is furious he says 'A virgin? you told me you were experienced, I'm leaving you' and storms off back to his parents to tell them his wife is a virgin.
Billy-Bob's Dad tells his son 'Son, you did the right thing, if she's not good enough for her own family, then she's not good enough for this family'
Very mild. I could tell much ruder/cruder ones than that.
An amendment that said: "no, this isn't good enough, so the government is instructed to withdraw the Article 50 notice forthwith and Britain will stay in the EU instead".
Such a withdrawal notice would probably not be legally effective but politically it probably would be.
It would be politically effective for the few weeks before the opposition became the government, and then was landed with the legal (and political) problem.
I'm sure they'd be happy to have the legal and political problem then.
Do you think so? I'm not so sure, it would be the humdinger of all nightmares if as a result we crashed out anyway with no deal. In that scenario they couldn't escape blame.
I do think so. They'd expect a fair wind from Brussels in the circumstances. I expect they'd see it as well worth the gamble.
What would a 'fair wind' mean? The EU would hardly be incentivised to make concessions in that scenario.
An amendment that said: "no, this isn't good enough, so the government is instructed to withdraw the Article 50 notice forthwith and Britain will stay in the EU instead".
Such a withdrawal notice would probably not be legally effective but politically it probably would be.
It would be politically effective for the few weeks before the opposition became the government, and then was landed with the legal (and political) problem.
I'm sure they'd be happy to have the legal and political problem then.
Do you think so? I'm not so sure, it would be the humdinger of all nightmares if as a result we crashed out anyway with no deal. In that scenario they couldn't escape blame.
I do think so. They'd expect a fair wind from Brussels in the circumstances. I expect they'd see it as well worth the gamble.
What would a 'fair wind' mean? The EU would hardly be incentivised to make concessions in that scenario.
1) The EU would prefer Britain in the EU than out, all things considered. 2) It would prefer to strengthen pro-EU forces in Britain against those opposed to the EU. 3) There would be an emotional sense of relief at the departure of what the EU no doubt sees as those awful Tories.
The EU would be incentivised to be fairly magnanimous.
Davis says, if MPs reject any aspect of the Brexit deal bill, that will be taken by the government as an instruction to go back to Brussels and try again. But whether they take any notice is a matter for them, he says.
Suella Fernandes, the Conservative chair of the European Research Group, which is pushing for a hard Brexit, asks Davis to confirm that MPs will not be able to use the newly-announced bill to reverse Brexit.
Davis agrees. It will be a meaningful vote, but not one that can undo Brexit, he says.
Davis says the Brexit talks have been tough, and may get tougher.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will take form of act of parliament
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now. He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it. That means MPs will be able to vote on it. He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period. This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says. Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it. This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
That rather assumes that there's going to be a deal.
And given that Article 50 has already been triggered the UK will still leave the EU in March 2019 whether or not a new Act is passed. The only way it can be stopped is by revoking Article 50 which would require the EU to agree (the legal position may be that the UK could revoke unilaterally but in practice a last-minute revocation would only be possible if the EU was in agreement). N'est-ce pas?
I still don't see how it could be revocable without the consent of all the other States. Otherwise, any country or group of countries could play cat and mouse with the EU.
Isn`t that precisely what Mrs May and her sidekicks are doing now? Playing cat and mouse with the EU and the economic future of the entire population of the UK?
No it isn't. I like how you look at the question and then answer the question you wish had been asked... ever consider a career in politics.
The point is the if A50 was unilaterally revocable a country could negotiate for 20 months, decide it didn't like was was on offer, revoke A50, then the following week/month/year serve a new A50 and get another 20+ months to talk about things and see if it can get a better answer... rinse and repeat.
Davis says, if MPs reject any aspect of the Brexit deal bill, that will be taken by the government as an instruction to go back to Brussels and try again. But whether they take any notice is a matter for them, he says.
Suella Fernandes, the Conservative chair of the European Research Group, which is pushing for a hard Brexit, asks Davis to confirm that MPs will not be able to use the newly-announced bill to reverse Brexit.
Davis agrees. It will be a meaningful vote, but not one that can undo Brexit, he says.
Davis says the Brexit talks have been tough, and may get tougher.
Amazing. So this could go on indefinitely with parliament playing perpetual ping pong with Brussels. I sense DD is getting bored with Brexit now and wants to kill it through the inducement of sheer boredom.
Davis says, if MPs reject any aspect of the Brexit deal bill, that will be taken by the government as an instruction to go back to Brussels and try again. But whether they take any notice is a matter for them, he says.
Suella Fernandes, the Conservative chair of the European Research Group, which is pushing for a hard Brexit, asks Davis to confirm that MPs will not be able to use the newly-announced bill to reverse Brexit.
Davis agrees. It will be a meaningful vote, but not one that can undo Brexit, he says.
Davis says the Brexit talks have been tough, and may get tougher.
So parliament amends the bill, and changes some bits it doesnt like. The bill is passed. Davis troops back to Brussells and says that parliament doesnt like some bits and wants to change them and then either
a) The negotiators tell him to piss off b) The European Parliament refuses to pass the deal (which might happen anyway) c) The Council of Europe tells him to piss off d) Further negotiations run out of time and we pass the 2 years without extension.
We now have an enacted act of Parliament which is rules things should happen that can't happen... how does that work then ?
The Tories need Rees Mogg in charge. It’s the only way to tame their right flank. Ultimately, the Conservative party is deeply pragmatic. It will see how the Moggster and his policies fare under the harsh, unstinting glare of the spotlight and will move back to the centre.
People said the same about Labour under Corbyn
The Tories are surely a lot more pragmatic than Labour. Even now. Aren’t they?
I think Davis is more likely to succeed May as PM, hence he is joint favourite with Mogg but if and when the Tories go back into opposition Mogg must be favourite to become Leader of the Opposition to Corbyn's Premiership.
Can you imagine what odds you would have got on your last sentence coming true say three years ago? It still boggles the mind when you think how much has changed in the political scene recently
An amendment that said: "no, this isn't good enough, so the government is instructed to withdraw the Article 50 notice forthwith and Britain will stay in the EU instead".
Such a withdrawal notice would probably not be legally effective but politically it probably would be.
It would be politically effective for the few weeks before the opposition became the government, and then was landed with the legal (and political) problem.
I'm sure they'd be happy to have the legal and political problem then.
Do you think so? I'm not so sure, it would be the humdinger of all nightmares if as a result we crashed out anyway with no deal. In that scenario they couldn't escape blame.
I do think so. They'd expect a fair wind from Brussels in the circumstances. I expect they'd see it as well worth the gamble.
What would a 'fair wind' mean? The EU would hardly be incentivised to make concessions in that scenario.
1) The EU would prefer Britain in the EU than out, all things considered. 2) It would prefer to strengthen pro-EU forces in Britain against those opposed to the EU. 3) There would be an emotional sense of relief at the departure of what the EU no doubt sees as those awful Tories.
The EU would be incentivised to be fairly magnanimous.
In such circumstances, if the EU is magmanimous the EU will win a lot of friends in the UK it might not have had before - especially if polls are indicating that voters are not happy with the deal the government has negotiated.
That said, if we have got to the point where a deal with the EU27 has been agreed it is likely to be pretty much on the EU’s terms.
An amendment that said: "no, this isn't good enough, so the government is instructed to withdraw the Article 50 notice forthwith and Britain will stay in the EU instead".
Such a withdrawal notice would probably not be legally effective but politically it probably would be.
It would be politically effective for the few weeks before the opposition became the government, and then was landed with the legal (and political) problem.
I'm sure they'd be happy to have the legal and political problem then.
Do you think so? I'm not so sure, it would be the humdinger of all nightmares if as a result we crashed out anyway with no deal. In that scenario they couldn't escape blame.
I do think so. They'd expect a fair wind from Brussels in the circumstances. I expect they'd see it as well worth the gamble.
What would a 'fair wind' mean? The EU would hardly be incentivised to make concessions in that scenario.
1) The EU would prefer Britain in the EU than out, all things considered. 2) It would prefer to strengthen pro-EU forces in Britain against those opposed to the EU. 3) There would be an emotional sense of relief at the departure of what the EU no doubt sees as those awful Tories.
The EU would be incentivised to be fairly magnanimous.
In such circumstances, if the EU is magmanimous the EU will win a lot of friends in the UK it might not have had before - especially if polls are indicating that voters are not happy with the deal the government has negotiated.
That said, if we have got to the point where a deal with the EU27 has been agreed it is likely to be pretty much on the EU’s terms.
To be clear, I think this is all fantasy. I'm not expecting a deal.
Davis says, if MPs reject any aspect of the Brexit deal bill, that will be taken by the government as an instruction to go back to Brussels and try again. But whether they take any notice is a matter for them, he says.
Suella Fernandes, the Conservative chair of the European Research Group, which is pushing for a hard Brexit, asks Davis to confirm that MPs will not be able to use the newly-announced bill to reverse Brexit.
Davis agrees. It will be a meaningful vote, but not one that can undo Brexit, he says.
Davis says the Brexit talks have been tough, and may get tougher.
Amazing. So this could go on indefinitely with parliament playing perpetual ping pong with Brussels. I sense DD is getting bored with Brexit now and wants to kill it through the inducement of sheer boredom.
Nope because when the two years is up we are out unless all 27 ÈU countries agree an extension. I suspect Davis is taking on the role of Canute explaining the unpalatable facts to MPs.
That said, if we have got to the point where a deal with the EU27 has been agreed it is likely to be pretty much on the EU’s terms.
I still think the wild card is going to be the EP, which might decide to throw the deal out anyway, or at least spend so long looking at it that we pass the two year deadline.
The bit that blows my mind is that the EP can apparently amend the deal, how does that work when the CoE and the UK already have found something they can both live with.
That said, if we have got to the point where a deal with the EU27 has been agreed it is likely to be pretty much on the EU’s terms.
I still think the wild card is going to be the EP, which might decide to throw the deal out anyway, or at least spend so long looking at it that we pass the two year deadline.
The bit that blows my mind is that the EP can apparently amend the deal, how does that work when the CoE and the UK already have found something they can both live with.
Very messy and a crisis for the EU with the Parliament having the power to block the will of the 27 nations
Davis says, if MPs reject any aspect of the Brexit deal bill, that will be taken by the government as an instruction to go back to Brussels and try again. But whether they take any notice is a matter for them, he says.
Suella Fernandes, the Conservative chair of the European Research Group, which is pushing for a hard Brexit, asks Davis to confirm that MPs will not be able to use the newly-announced bill to reverse Brexit.
Davis agrees. It will be a meaningful vote, but not one that can undo Brexit, he says.
Davis says the Brexit talks have been tough, and may get tougher.
Amazing. So this could go on indefinitely with parliament playing perpetual ping pong with Brussels.
No, after lots of huffing and puffing and grandstanding Parliament will have to agree to the deal the government negotiates as there's no other real option - The vote will just be a rubberstamp.
Not that I think there will be a deal. The EU doesn't want one so it will be no deal sadly.
You mean the one that shows labour rent their HQ from a tax haven, John McDonnells pension is vested in a tax haven as are the BBC's, and two labour councils in the north use tax havens
I notice that the BBC and Guardian have already run out of stories....it didn't even go 3 days before we got celeb sets up a company in the Bahamas to buy a golf course in the Bahamas...
A whole year of their life spent exposing the scandal that Queenie had £3k indirectly invested in BrightHouse and pays more tax than she needs to.
I wonder how much the leaker got paid? And was it via a tax dodge?
Comments
Corbyn is showing some signs of flexibility both in his approach to Brexit and his speech to the CBI was notably more friendly to business than might have been expected in the past. But there is a long way to go. The Tories, on the other hand, seem completely, impervious to the ongoing disaster of Brexit and show no willingness to modify their position even slightly as the country hurtles toward the cliff.
But that's still hardly the worst of His crimes (if we are to judge gods by the morals of men, which we shouldn't).
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"The treatment of Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe by the Iranians is being given succour by the socialists opposite": @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
Is he running? Sounds like it:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/13/joe-biden-always-believed-could-beat-donald-trump-might-now/
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/930105328334704640
He should be sacked for political incompetence and diplomatic incompetence.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/930091335771721730
Anything can happen.
"But Mary kept all these things, and pondered them in her heart..."
But, yes, of course.
The selectorate and party electorate are very small indeed, and of not unquestionable judgment... and in these febrile times the ridiculous is not necessarily the same thing as the unlikely.
They are about to consummate their marriage and Mary-Sue says 'Be a gentle, I'm a virgin'
Billy-Bob is furious he says 'A virgin? you told me you were experienced, I'm leaving you' and storms off back to his parents to tell them his wife is a virgin.
Billy-Bob's Dad tells his son 'Son, you did the right thing, if she's not good enough for her own family, then she's not good enough for this family'
https://twitter.com/AndrewSparrow/status/930111128935567360
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is making a Commons statement on Brexit now.
He says, once there is a Brexit agreement, there will be a specific piece of primary legislation - ie, a government bill - to enact it.
That means MPs will be able to vote on it.
He says it will cover items like citizens’ rights and the implementation period.
This will be as well as a vote in principle on the Brexit deal, he says.
Davis announces final Brexit deal will be implemented via a government bill. This means MPs will have the option of amending it.
This is something opposition MPs and Tory rebels have been demanding. Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general, has tabled an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill demanding exactly this.
"Everybody does that."
"Yeah, but daddy says I do it the best."
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/930111152272572416?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/nov/13/boris-johnson-should-resign-if-british-womans-jail-term-in-iran-gets-extended-says-labour-mp-politics-live
I don't disagree.
It's a sh*tshow.
On topic. Punters would be foolish to dismiss Mogg's chances. Having said that, he's probably a lay at current odds.
Bring it on.
Such a withdrawal notice would probably not be legally effective but politically it probably would be.
In other words, it ain't gonna happen. There simply isn't time even if there were broadly the will.
Otherwise, any country or group of countries could play cat and mouse with the EU.
Of course, it must be legally possible for all the 27 to agree unanimously to accept a revocation by treaty change, but that would be a long-drawn out and potentially uncertain course.
Or, more likely, automatically leave with only WTO to fall back on.
and perhaps even take it out of the treaty altogether, which would be very hard for the UK to swallow. Though it's not totally beyond the bounds of possibility if the worst case scenarios such as this one turn out to be correct.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/13/food-prices-would-soar-after-no-deal-brexit-warns-major-dairy-boss
The bill comes before them. They don't like it (they won't because they don't want to leave) so they vote against. We then leave without a deal. Is that a triumph? Or can they amend it to say we ignore the people and stay in. After all, it was only the common as muck who voted yes.
I can see that will be accepted, and everyone will live happily in our EU paradise.
Each and every MP will have the biggest decision they are likely to face in their Parliamentary life.
This puts everyone on the spot and I am content to sit back and watch with great interest as this evolves
Well done David and(TM) and likely to take the Iranian story off the news so diplomatic negotiations can continue out of the spotlight of the media
So as you say the choice the MPs will have is accept the terms put forward by the Government/EU deal or accept a hard Brexit.
That is the entire problem - the sequences are all wrong, and the result of no agreement is not the status quo.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Alabama,_2017
2) It would prefer to strengthen pro-EU forces in Britain against those opposed to the EU.
3) There would be an emotional sense of relief at the departure of what the EU no doubt sees as those awful Tories.
The EU would be incentivised to be fairly magnanimous.
Suella Fernandes, the Conservative chair of the European Research Group, which is pushing for a hard Brexit, asks Davis to confirm that MPs will not be able to use the newly-announced bill to reverse Brexit.
Davis agrees. It will be a meaningful vote, but not one that can undo Brexit, he says.
Davis says the Brexit talks have been tough, and may get tougher.
The point is the if A50 was unilaterally revocable a country could negotiate for 20 months, decide it didn't like was was on offer, revoke A50, then the following week/month/year serve a new A50 and get another 20+ months to talk about things and see if it can get a better answer... rinse and repeat.
a) The negotiators tell him to piss off
b) The European Parliament refuses to pass the deal (which might happen anyway)
c) The Council of Europe tells him to piss off
d) Further negotiations run out of time and we pass the 2 years without extension.
We now have an enacted act of Parliament which is rules things should happen that can't happen... how does that work then ?
That said, if we have got to the point where a deal with the EU27 has been agreed it is likely to be pretty much on the EU’s terms.
Professionally we're expecting no deal due to the time constraints.
The bit that blows my mind is that the EP can apparently amend the deal, how does that work when the CoE and the UK already have found something they can both live with.
Not that I think there will be a deal. The EU doesn't want one so it will be no deal sadly.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/930125036442341376
A whole year of their life spent exposing the scandal that Queenie had £3k indirectly invested in BrightHouse and pays more tax than she needs to.
I wonder how much the leaker got paid? And was it via a tax dodge?