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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Father of six who has never been a minister nor changed a nappy now favourite to succeed TMay
With all the focus on the Westminster sexual abuse scandal there has been a big change in the Conservative leadership betting. Jacob Rees-Mogg who is not and never has been a minister has now moved above a former Mayor of London and no Foreign Secretary, Mr Johnson, and just ahead of the Brexit Secretary Mr David Davis.
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"Or just not run a terrible campaign.
It's worth remembering that TMay had a commanding lead in the polls when the election was called and, indeed, the locals during the long campaign pointed to a strong win for the Tories.
TMay effectively missed an open goal. She took an imperious, afraid-of-the-public approach to campaigning (against a skilled stump speech opponent). She approved a manifesto with her inner circle that was effectively political suicide to her core vote (dementia tax to homeowners), miscommunicated it badly, u-turned, and of course - utterly screwed up the digital / social media element of the campaign. I remember people on here saying that the 'IRA' Facebook attack ad was a slam dunk, despite the fact I pointed out several times that all the views were paid for and therefore of little to no value, while people were sharing Labour and Momentum videos amongst their friends, getting higher view counts but more importantly generating a 'my friend recommends this' effect. The Corbyn campaign had buzz. The Tory campaign had buzz off.
The Tories are damn lucky they were facing the Marmite Corbyn. A less divisive opponent would have stormed it for Labour."
A less divisive opponent would have severely tempered the desire to call an early GE though.
Yes, the Tories nationally ran a shocker. A better run campaign could easily have saved 15 seats and won 10 more, against any opponent. The balance of seats ignored vs. crazy target seats won't be repeated. Labour are benchmarked at an improbably high watermark next time out. They have a lot of seats to defend on tiny majorities.
Where each party decides to defend and attack next time will be fascinating.
What we are seeing is a backlash against years of career politicians who seem to care about nothing more than power for power's sake, the public being sick of a "game of thrones" approach to politics if you will. It is the same reason Corbyn is popular (even if he does have a whiff of the High Sparrow about him).
I don't see it.
I don't think Mogg will make the final two. Penny Mordaunt absolutely should.
Then I remember last year 84 Tory MPs thought Andrea Leadsom should be our PM.
Edit, in fairness this from Wiki is encouraging:
"Mordaunt remarked “I have benefited from some excellent training by the Royal Navy, but on one occasion I felt that it was not as bespoke as it might have been. Fascinating though it was, I felt that the lecture and practical demonstration on how to care for the penis and testicles in the field failed to appreciate that some of us attending had been issued with the incorrect kit.”
1) Mercer
2) Hunt
3) Tugendhat
4) Rudd
Jacob Rees-Mogg is a caricature. That's not to say there is nothing behind the caricature. I think there is and it looks unpleasant. But he certainly isn't what he pretends to be.
That screams unfit for high office.
Mr. Eagles, reckon Mercer or Tugendhat will get promoted at any point?
Johnny Mercer has the potential to form a "cross-party" coalition with voters not seen since Blair.
She sounded much more pragmatic than May on Brexit (eg on the right for those settled here to remain unconditionally) and May's government has hardly been a resounding success.
To maximise Labour's chances...
Back in April 2015 someone who was working on the Tory campaign lamented picking Johnny Mercer in that seat, 'We should have got him a safe seat, he's going to be leader and win a Blair landslide in the 2030s instead of the 2020s now'
We were both so chuffed when he won Plymouth in 2015.
"“It smells of decline, and the people won’t have it."
I very much doubt Mrs May appreciated that bon mot.
https://stephendaisley.com/2017/11/13/how-bounders-chancers-and-charlatans-took-over-politics/amp/
1) Stopping the frankly Jim Crow/Apartheidesque Stop and Search
2) Working well on reducing modern slavery
3) Introducing same-sex marriage.
https://www.freemovement.org.uk/an-immigration-lawyer-reviews-paddington-2-hostile-environment/
Saw it this evening = Hugh Grant has great fun......
Talking of whom I am almost sure that Penny Mordaunt must be an HP character.
Titus is a pretty cool name.
Mr. L, there's a rather nice speech by Davros in Genesis of the Daleks, in which he censures democracy (I think because of the compromise it entails). A shame he was buggered up in New Who.
The Tory campaign was shocking and incompetent. But the thing to remember is that TMay had a commanding lead in the polls that should have given her a 150+ seat majority before the campaign began and the manifestos were launched.
One of the more interesting counterfactuals I often ask myself is, what would have happened had Labour run on the same manifesto but with a less divisive leader, e.g. Burnham.
Part of me says there would be a PM Burnham in office right now, because it was the labour manifesto (end to tuition fees, nationalised railways etc) that people were voting for and the Tory manfiesto (dementia tax) they were voting against. The other part of me thinks that despite being Marmite, Corbyn's charisma was able to win a lot of people over and Labour would have done worse under another identikit Burnham / Miliband style politician. But that's the problem with counterfactuals. We'll never really know.
But some just don't appear to have an SOH at all. Theresa May won't have a second career as an after dinner speaker, I'd suggest. Hard to see the Momentum crowd telling a joke that wasn't at the expense of somebody who has got in their way. But better that than George Osborne, giggling himself silly on the Front Bench. Or those party sycophants who are rendered into paroxysms of laughter by one of their colleagues delivering a sub-Christmas cracker gag.
One of the best SOH in the Commons - and kept very well under wraps - was apparently Dr Ian Paisley. I'm told he was a hoot - in private!
Cameron managed not to trash his reputation during the 2015 campaign, Mrs May well.....
Wouldn't you rather be Trajan? Or Aurelian?
Shoulds like the nom de guerre for a dominatrix who services meek men.
Oh crap, I'm typing this on a work laptop.
The feminine version is 'domme', not 'dom'. Dom Meeks would be a man.
But more importantly I also question the decision to run an extremely negative campaign whose USP was almost entirely stick with nurse for fear of worse, which was _exactly_ why the Remain campaign lost. Project fear failed.
Elections ultimately boil down to "it's too much of a risk, don't chance it" vs "it's time for change" and if 2016 taught us anything, it's that the general public are in the mood for change. The Labour manifesto, despite being sheer lunacy on many levels (much like some of the promises made by Vote Leave), offered people hope. And that is what they bought.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/930097017405214720
@Peston: .@BorisJohnson has finally said explicitly that Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe was in Iran on holiday, and not training journalists. And he apologises for being misunderstood!!!
@IanDunt: He then apologises but immediately follows w word "if". I stopped listening. No political apology with the word "if" at the end is worth listening to.
The British electorate will never choose a tit like him to become PM. Even the Tory membership should realise this, surely?
I will give her:
5) Lasting 6 years without being sacked.
By 37% to 28% Alabama evangelicals say they are more likely to vote for Roy Moore following the allegations of sexual misconduct with children.
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/360010-poll-37-percent-of-alabama-evangelicals-more-likely-to-vote-for-moore-after
Presumably they think the allegations are some kind of conspiracy... but even still that's an impressive result.
I cannot fathom the thinking (I use the term generously) that can't separate in moral terms people who don't believe in a god, and people who are violent sex attackers. But there we are.
He impregnated Mary without her consent.
What is his ability to manage a government and parliamentary party like? What are his negotiating skills like? How well does he advocate a policy that he's not that interested in (and as a PM, you must be prepared to advocate your party's policy across the board; a backbencher has a luxury in choosing his or her interests).
The only Mogg Downing St needs is Larry.