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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the Alabama sentate race

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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,266
    calum said:
    I'm sorry, but whilst I wish Boris had kept his bloody trap shut, I don't think it's for government ministers to toe the line set by the accused and their family.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609

    rcs1000 said:

    I agree with TSE: the Republicans are value here.

    That being said: could the Dems pull something out of the bag? Yes, it's possible. After all, in Virginia the gap was about 5-6 points wider than the polling in their favour.

    But in Alabama? My money's on the Republicans.

    Agreed, US politics is so tribal now that it’s hard to see anything that could cause Republcians to switch sides. The best the Dems can hope for is that it causes a few Republicans to stay home
    The Republicans won liberal Massachusetts in 2010 with the moderate Scott Brown, Democrats have an outside chance of winning conservative Alabama with the centrist, socially conservative Doug Jones
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tlg86 said:

    Surely the age of consent should simply be half your age plus seven.

    Unfair to anyone who gets less than an A* at GCSE maths?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,214
    edited November 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    I agree with TSE: the Republicans are value here.

    That being said: could the Dems pull something out of the bag? Yes, it's possible. After all, in Virginia the gap was about 5-6 points wider than the polling in their favour.

    But in Alabama? My money's on the Republicans.

    Agreed, US politics is so tribal now that it’s hard to see anything that could cause Republcians to switch sides. The best the Dems can hope for is that it causes a few Republicans to stay home
    This is a 38 year old accusation with no supporting evidence which is being vigorously denied. I think a lot of republicans will pause but I am not sure many will ultimately not vote for their man on the back of this.

    Unless something more concrete comes out of course. There are already 2 other women who say as teenagers they went out on dates with him in his early 30s. Unlike the principal accuser he admits knowing them but denies actual dates. Doesn't look great.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    daodao said:

    ydoethur said:

    daodao said:

    No deal wouldn't particularly harm the EU either.

    The only way that No a Deal represents a significant - potentially fatal - threat to the current EU is if in five years' time it is seen as a success or, alternatively, as a very minor matter that made little difference (much the same thing in practice). In which case it seems very likely other countries would also wish to withdraw.
    That seems about as likely as me getting a date with Margot Robbie, TSE ordering a Hawaiian pizza or Boris Johnson showing something vaguely akin to competence. However, we live in strange and disturbing times and the only thing we can really confidently say is we have sod all idea what will happen next.
    The EU can virtually guarantee that a no deal outcome will harm the UK by treating it post Brexit as a pariah enemy state whose neck should be wrung like a chicken.
    I think the response was "some neck....some chicken...."
    That was 80 years ago, Mr Mark. Things have changed a bit since then.

    The problem is that some of your Conservatives have gone backwards.
  • calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'
    Nope. Government has position. Ministers should follow it. Politics 101.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,255
    edited November 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."
  • calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'

    Seriously?

    "Everything we know indicates that she was there on holiday."

    "How do you know?"

    "That is what she says, what her family says and what her employer says. We have no reason to disbelieve them."

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763
    If Gove were asked, how are the Brexit negotiations going, I guess folks here would be happy if he said " I dunno, I wasn't there"
  • HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

  • It strikes me that this is a very good race not to bet on, or at least not to high stakes. Virginia suggested that we might see something like Remainers' revenge in the USA. Trumpsters continued to turn out but were swamped by more numerous opponents to an unpredicted extent. Before committing money to this proposition, the Alabama race would provide useful data.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    edited November 2017
    Simon Jenkins 'No more Remembrance Days, let's consign the 20th century to history'
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/09/no-more-remembrance-days-consign-20th-century-history
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,255
    tlg86 said:

    Surely the age of consent should simply be half your age plus seven.

    10 year olds having sex with 12 year olds would still be problematic...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,266

    tlg86 said:

    Surely the age of consent should simply be half your age plus seven.

    10 year olds having sex with 12 year olds would still be problematic...
    Except, of course, the 12 year old would be breaking the law.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Yep, as he also made very clear during the interview it would not affect him or his company in the slightest.

  • HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."
    +1

    James Dyson was an inspiration and we need more of that from the media

    Michael Gove must be rising in the betting odds. Accomplished performance on Marr
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."
    Good strategy
  • It strikes me that this is a very good race not to bet on, or at least not to high stakes. Virginia suggested that we might see something like Remainers' revenge in the USA. Trumpsters continued to turn out but were swamped by more numerous opponents to an unpredicted extent. Before committing money to this proposition, the Alabama race would provide useful data.

    Virginia is a split state - the north is basically Yankeeland these days, the south is still the south. There is no ambiguity in Alabama. It is full on south and will surely vote accordingly.

  • tlg86 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Countries where the age of consent is 14: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Liechtenstein, Macedonia, Montenegro, Portugal, San Marino, Serbia.

    Refreshing to see the Remainariat having a "Let's all laugh at the pervy foreigners" moment.

    That's not a proper understanding of the laws.

    IIRC no one over the age of 21 can have sexual relations with a 14/15 year old in Germany.
    Just looking at the Wiki page, it looks like there are no restrictions for 14+ in Austria. Which doesn't surprise me.
    tlg86 said:

    Surely the age of consent should simply be half your age plus seven.

    @SeanT would have very strong views on that idea, I expect. As would Emmanuel Macron.

    As it happens, if I were starting with a clean sheet of paper I'd make the age of consent 14, reflecting biological reality. But 16 is fine and not worth disturbing.
  • calum said:
    ****s of a feather just can't resist flocking together.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    The critical impression that the EU have acquired about British government over the last twenty years is that they'll say yes to whatever the EU wants.

    Its time to change the way British governments negotiate.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."
    I'll shoot myself in the head and blame you if you don't do what I want.

    Not so much a strategy as a cry for help.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,938

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."
    Why not simply issue the second now, as an offer as opposed to agreement ?

  • calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'
    Exactly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,255

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763
    You get the impression that Tories are itching to play the blame game.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,266
    HYUFD said:

    Simon Jenkins 'No more Remembrance Days, let's consign the 20th century to history'
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/09/no-more-remembrance-days-consign-20th-century-history

    I think Jenkins has a point, and I do like his pieces as they are usually well thought out. However, I think it's important that we continue this until all those who fought in WW2 have died.
  • Jonathan said:

    You get the impression that Tories are itching to play the blame game.

    They sure suck at the negotiation game. They've been aggressive when they should have been emollient and emollient when they should have been aggressive. That trend looks set to continue.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?

    Pay the comparatively small amount needed to kick-start serious FTA negotiations and move on. We voted for a weak bargaining position. We need to accept that and get on with it.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    edited November 2017
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Simon Jenkins 'No more Remembrance Days, let's consign the 20th century to history'
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/09/no-more-remembrance-days-consign-20th-century-history

    I think Jenkins has a point, and I do like his pieces as they are usually well thought out. However, I think it's important that we continue this until all those who fought in WW2 have died.
    Or just turn it into a Veterans Day as in the USA so we remember those who served in the Falklands War, the Gulf War, the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars too
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,938

    Betting Post

    F1: pre-race ramble now up:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/brazil-pre-race-2017.html

    I considered a very large number of bets, but in the end just went with Ricciardo to not be classified at 5.

    Vettel first lap leader looks good to me.
    Odds of 5 on what is just about a coin flip ?

    And it at least allows you to watch the rest of the GP without worries.

    I have a few pounds coming if Bottas wins (laid far too early but there you go), so having a dabble a bit of a no brainer.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?
    How about also sending copies of the two speeches to the PM of every EU country.

    I suspect they would all prefer the second speech.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    The critical impression that the EU have acquired about British government over the last twenty years is that they'll say yes to whatever the EU wants.

    Its time to change the way British governments negotiate.

    That is the Brexiteer view of the EU/UK relationship, I accept. That is not necessarily the EU view of it, though. From an EU perspective they have bent over backwards to accommodate the UK and the UK keeps coming back for more.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,214

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'

    Seriously?

    "Everything we know indicates that she was there on holiday."

    "How do you know?"

    "That is what she says, what her family says and what her employer says. We have no reason to disbelieve them."

    And what if that isn't the case and that is why Boris made his faux pas in the first place? I think Gove's answer was the safest.
  • Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."
    I'll shoot myself in the head and blame you if you don't do what I want.

    Not so much a strategy as a cry for help.

    Says the man who supported Blair when he gave away half the Rebate for nothing.

    How much did that cost the UK ? Some where over £50bn I believe ?
  • Mr. B, generally, the Mercedes has started better than the Ferrari. I do agree it's a credible bet, which is why it was on my shortlist, but as nothing was absolutely stand-out I prefer not having multiple bets.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,266
    DavidL said:

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'

    Seriously?

    "Everything we know indicates that she was there on holiday."

    "How do you know?"

    "That is what she says, what her family says and what her employer says. We have no reason to disbelieve them."

    And what if that isn't the case and that is why Boris made his faux pas in the first place? I think Gove's answer was the safest.
    Exactly.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the governcment should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?
    How about also sending copies of the two speeches to the PM of every EU country.

    I suspect they would all prefer the second speech.
    Given that Leavers have at every point miscalled how member states would react to Britain's negotiating strategy, I'd have thought a touch of humility about such predictions was called for.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,255

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?
    How about also sending copies of the two speeches to the PM of every EU country.

    I suspect they would all prefer the second speech.
    Oh that would be disrespectful to the EU's appointed negotiators, looking like you were trying to completly undermine them.

    I like it....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."
    I'll shoot myself in the head and blame you if you don't do what I want.

    Not so much a strategy as a cry for help.

    Says the man who supported Blair when he gave away half the Rebate for nothing.

    How much did that cost the UK ? Some where over £50bn I believe ?
    Me thinks they want to change the subject. Can't imagine why. It's all going so terribly terribly well.
  • DavidL said:

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'

    Seriously?

    "Everything we know indicates that she was there on holiday."

    "How do you know?"

    "That is what she says, what her family says and what her employer says. We have no reason to disbelieve them."

    And what if that isn't the case and that is why Boris made his faux pas in the first place? I think Gove's answer was the safest.
    All Michael Gove needed to do was preface the government line with "As I understand it...".
  • Jonathan said:

    You get the impression that Tories are itching to play the blame game.

    You express your own view and no doubt want us to submit to the EU.

    The voters will make up their own minds and right now the EU are not covering themselves in glory


  • Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    The critical impression that the EU have acquired about British government over the last twenty years is that they'll say yes to whatever the EU wants.

    Its time to change the way British governments negotiate.

    That is the Brexiteer view of the EU/UK relationship, I accept. That is not necessarily the EU view of it, though. From an EU perspective they have bent over backwards to accommodate the UK and the UK keeps coming back for more.

    The UK keeps coming back for more you say ?

    Please remind me when the last time any of these happened:

    1) The UK was a net recipient of EU money
    2) The UK had a trade surplus with the other EU countries
    3) The UK had net migration to the other EU countries
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,081
    edited November 2017

    Jonathan said:

    You get the impression that Tories are itching to play the blame game.

    They sure suck at the negotiation game. They've been aggressive when they should have been emollient and emollient when they should have been aggressive. That trend looks set to continue.
    You mean lay down before Juncker et al
  • Jonathan said:

    You get the impression that Tories are itching to play the blame game.

    That's how they figure they get to cling to power: we walk out, the lion will roar, the world will quake and the Tories will win a snap red, white and blue election. If that means driving the UK off the cliff edge, so be it. It's a strategy that could work - especially against someone like Corbyn.

    The problem is that after the bunting has been cleared away and the Union Jacks have all been rolled up, the UK will be left to cope with a No Deal Brexit. That's why I think the next Tory PM will be the last one we see for many a long year. James Dyson, with his factories in the far east and the vast majority of his sales outside the EU, will be fine; but, of course, James Dyson is not typical.

    I am increasingly of the view that the Imperial Tory Empire 2.0 brigade need to own Brexit completely. They should be driving the UK's strategy and should be delivering on the promises that they made. Sunlit uplands await. There will be no downsides to leaving. Go for it, Boris.

  • DavidL said:

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'

    Seriously?

    "Everything we know indicates that she was there on holiday."

    "How do you know?"

    "That is what she says, what her family says and what her employer says. We have no reason to disbelieve them."

    And what if that isn't the case and that is why Boris made his faux pas in the first place? I think Gove's answer was the safest.
    Exactly.

    Gove isn't the family lawyer nor is he the minister involved.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,255



    Pay the comparatively small amount needed to kick-start serious FTA negotiations and move on. We voted for a weak bargaining position. We need to accept that and get on with it.

    And the mechanism for deciding that "compartively small amount"? There isn't one - which my proposal overcomes. Under yours, when Barnier comes back and says "That "compartively small amount" will be £100 billion, please...."? - you'd pay? Leaving £45 - £65 billion on the table....great negotiating that!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763

    Jonathan said:

    You get the impression that Tories are itching to play the blame game.

    You express your own view and no doubt want us to submit to the EU.

    The voters will make up their own minds and right now the EU are not covering themselves in glory
    None so blind as those that won't see. The British negotiating team have been naive, incompetent, useless and utterly self defeating. Frankly embarrassing.


  • Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    The critical impression that the EU have acquired about British government over the last twenty years is that they'll say yes to whatever the EU wants.

    Its time to change the way British governments negotiate.

    That is the Brexiteer view of the EU/UK relationship, I accept. That is not necessarily the EU view of it, though. From an EU perspective they have bent over backwards to accommodate the UK and the UK keeps coming back for more.

    The UK keeps coming back for more you say ?

    Please remind me when the last time any of these happened:

    1) The UK was a net recipient of EU money
    2) The UK had a trade surplus with the other EU countries
    3) The UK had net migration to the other EU countries

    Please show me another EU member state that has had so many opt-outs and so many concessions made to it.

  • Jonathan said:

    You get the impression that Tories are itching to play the blame game.

    They sure suck at the negotiation game. They've been aggressive when they should have been emollient and emollient when they should have been aggressive. That trend looks set to continue.
    You mean lay down before Juncker et al
    No. I mean that the British government has been soft at all the wrong times and aggressive at all the wrong times.

    The government should never have agreed to the EU's process in the first place. But it did and its options have narrowed accordingly.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the governcment should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?
    How about also sending copies of the two speeches to the PM of every EU country.

    I suspect they would all prefer the second speech.
    Given that Leavers have at every point miscalled how member states would react to Britain's negotiating strategy, I'd have thought a touch of humility about such predictions was called for.

    The "They will be desperate for a deal, German car manufacturers will force Merkel into concluding one" theory is destined to be tested to destruction, it seems.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,355
    edited November 2017
    What's a sentate?

    Betting on the Alabama sentate race
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763

    Jonathan said:

    You get the impression that Tories are itching to play the blame game.

    That's how they figure they get to cling to power: we walk out, the lion will roar, the world will quake and the Tories will win a snap red, white and blue election. If that means driving the UK off the cliff edge, so be it. It's a strategy that could work - especially against someone like Corbyn.

    The problem is that after the bunting has been cleared away and the Union Jacks have all been rolled up, the UK will be left to cope with a No Deal Brexit. That's why I think the next Tory PM will be the last one we see for many a long year. James Dyson, with his factories in the far east and the vast majority of his sales outside the EU, will be fine; but, of course, James Dyson is not typical.

    I am increasingly of the view that the Imperial Tory Empire 2.0 brigade need to own Brexit completely. They should be driving the UK's strategy and should be delivering on the promises that they made. Sunlit uplands await. There will be no downsides to leaving. Go for it, Boris.

    Both true and pathetic in equal measure.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,255
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    You get the impression that Tories are itching to play the blame game.

    You express your own view and no doubt want us to submit to the EU.

    The voters will make up their own minds and right now the EU are not covering themselves in glory
    None so blind as those that won't see. The British negotiating team have been naive, incompetent, useless and utterly self defeating. Frankly embarrassing.
    But enough of Cameron's renegotiations....


  • Pay the comparatively small amount needed to kick-start serious FTA negotiations and move on. We voted for a weak bargaining position. We need to accept that and get on with it.

    And the mechanism for deciding that "compartively small amount"? There isn't one - which my proposal overcomes. Under yours, when Barnier comes back and says "That "compartively small amount" will be £100 billion, please...."? - you'd pay? Leaving £45 - £65 billion on the table....great negotiating that!

    You go nuclear should the EU raise the amount it is after. That's how you begin to affect public opinion in the EU27, where it actually matters.

  • HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the governcment should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?
    How about also sending copies of the two speeches to the PM of every EU country.

    I suspect they would all prefer the second speech.
    Given that Leavers have at every point miscalled how member states would react to Britain's negotiating strategy, I'd have thought a touch of humility about such predictions was called for.

    The "They will be desperate for a deal, German car manufacturers will force Merkel into concluding one" theory is destined to be tested to destruction, it seems.

    The way things are going there will be no cars to import as diesel and petrol cars are binned with punitive taxes
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    edited November 2017

    DavidL said:

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'

    Seriously?

    "Everything we know indicates that she was there on holiday."

    "How do you know?"

    "That is what she says, what her family says and what her employer says. We have no reason to disbelieve them."

    And what if that isn't the case and that is why Boris made his faux pas in the first place? I think Gove's answer was the safest.
    All Michael Gove needed to do was preface the government line with "As I understand it...".

    Yep. Sadly, for the lady concerned, Boris's position is more important to Gove and other Big Brexit Beasts than hers.

  • HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the governcment should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?
    How about also sending copies of the two speeches to the PM of every EU country.

    I suspect they would all prefer the second speech.
    Given that Leavers have at every point miscalled how member states would react to Britain's negotiating strategy, I'd have thought a touch of humility about such predictions was called for.

    The "They will be desperate for a deal, German car manufacturers will force Merkel into concluding one" theory is destined to be tested to destruction, it seems.

    No, the Leavers are past that stage. Britons are now expected patriotically to buy Austin Allegros instead.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    You get the impression that Tories are itching to play the blame game.

    You express your own view and no doubt want us to submit to the EU.

    The voters will make up their own minds and right now the EU are not covering themselves in glory
    None so blind as those that won't see. The British negotiating team have been naive, incompetent, useless and utterly self defeating. Frankly embarrassing.
    But enough of Cameron's renegotiations....
    You never go full Remoaner!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    May and Corbyn have just come out at the Cenotaph with their wreaths


  • Pay the comparatively small amount needed to kick-start serious FTA negotiations and move on. We voted for a weak bargaining position. We need to accept that and get on with it.

    And the mechanism for deciding that "compartively small amount"? There isn't one - which my proposal overcomes. Under yours, when Barnier comes back and says "That "compartively small amount" will be £100 billion, please...."? - you'd pay? Leaving £45 - £65 billion on the table....great negotiating that!

    You go nuclear should the EU raise the amount it is after. That's how you begin to affect public opinion in the EU27, where it actually matters.

    "Give us your money or else!" - EU negotiating stance
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    edited November 2017

    Jonathan said:

    You get the impression that Tories are itching to play the blame game.

    That's how they figure they get to cling to power: we walk out, the lion will roar, the world will quake and the Tories will win a snap red, white and blue election. If that means driving the UK off the cliff edge, so be it. It's a strategy that could work - especially against someone like Corbyn.

    The problem is that after the bunting has been cleared away and the Union Jacks have all been rolled up, the UK will be left to cope with a No Deal Brexit. That's why I think the next Tory PM will be the last one we see for many a long year. James Dyson, with his factories in the far east and the vast majority of his sales outside the EU, will be fine; but, of course, James Dyson is not typical.

    I am increasingly of the view that the Imperial Tory Empire 2.0 brigade need to own Brexit completely. They should be driving the UK's strategy and should be delivering on the promises that they made. Sunlit uplands await. There will be no downsides to leaving. Go for it, Boris.

    If the Tories won a 4th consecutive term in office if 1992 is anything to go by they would lose the next general election by a landslide to a more moderate Labour leader and be out for a generation anyway, hard Brexit or no hard Brexit. Longer term it might even be better for the Tories to narrowly lose the next general election and to see Corbyn lead a minority government, though not for the country.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,214

    DavidL said:

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'

    Seriously?

    "Everything we know indicates that she was there on holiday."

    "How do you know?"

    "That is what she says, what her family says and what her employer says. We have no reason to disbelieve them."

    And what if that isn't the case and that is why Boris made his faux pas in the first place? I think Gove's answer was the safest.
    Exactly.

    Gove isn't the family lawyer nor is he the minister involved.
    I just have a suspicion that the government has picked up wind that she was doing rather more than being on holiday. Boris's initial comment was that helping someone become a journalist is not a crime. Of course it isn't in any sane or civilised society. But in Iran....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,355
    edited November 2017


    No, the Leavers are past that stage. Britons are now expected patriotically to buy Austin Allegros instead.


    Brexitter
    -------------

    New words by Sunil, original music by Marc Almond & Dave Ball.

    Friday morning going slow
    I'm watching the election show
    Lots of Ladbrokes slips on the floor
    Memories of the night before
    Out knocking up and having fun
    Now I've stopped reading The Sun
    Waiting for the results to show
    But why I voted no one knows

    Voting, polling
    Blogging, trolling
    And now I'm all alone
    In Brexit Land
    My only home

    I think it's time to write a thread
    To vent the bemusement in my head
    Spent my money on online bookies
    Got nowt here but all the cookies
    Clean my suit and my rosette
    Election promises to forget
    Start campaigning all over again
    Kid myself I'm having fun

    Voting, polling
    Blogging, trolling
    And now I'm all alone
    In Brexit Land
    My only home

    Looking out from my worldview
    I've really nothing else to do
    Seems like I have started fretting
    Let's read Political Betting
    Forget The Mirror and The Times
    The battle bus with such great lines
    Look around and I can see
    A thousand punters just like me

    Voting, polling
    Blogging, trolling
    And now I'm all alone
    In Brexit Land
    My only home

    Voting, polling
    Blogging, trolling
    And now I'm all alone
    In Brexit Land
    My only home

    (I'm waiting for Brexit
    Or am I wasting time)




  • Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    The critical impression that the EU have acquired about British government over the last twenty years is that they'll say yes to whatever the EU wants.

    Its time to change the way British governments negotiate.

    That is the Brexiteer view of the EU/UK relationship, I accept. That is not necessarily the EU view of it, though. From an EU perspective they have bent over backwards to accommodate the UK and the UK keeps coming back for more.

    The UK keeps coming back for more you say ?

    Please remind me when the last time any of these happened:

    1) The UK was a net recipient of EU money
    2) The UK had a trade surplus with the other EU countries
    3) The UK had net migration to the other EU countries

    Please show me another EU member state that has had so many opt-outs and so many concessions made to it.

    So you don't answer.

    Its always the UK at fault in your view isn't it, always the UK which should pay more, always the UK which should give ground.

    And that's why you supported Blair when he gave away half the Rebate for nothing.

    How much has that cost the UK ? Somewhere over £100bn I believe.

    And what opt-outs and concessions ?

    When the UK joined in 1973 its current was the pound, in 2017 its currency is the pound. Where's the opt-out and concession there ?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981



    Pay the comparatively small amount needed to kick-start serious FTA negotiations and move on. We voted for a weak bargaining position. We need to accept that and get on with it.

    And the mechanism for deciding that "compartively small amount"? There isn't one - which my proposal overcomes. Under yours, when Barnier comes back and says "That "compartively small amount" will be £100 billion, please...."? - you'd pay? Leaving £45 - £65 billion on the table....great negotiating that!

    You go nuclear should the EU raise the amount it is after. That's how you begin to affect public opinion in the EU27, where it actually matters.

    "Give us your money or else!" - EU negotiating stance
    I have to agree. In a grown up context, the principles on which the payment was to be calculated would be decided at top level, and then armies of accountants down the food chain would do the sums and come up with the figure you arrive at if you apply those principles.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."
    I'll shoot myself in the head and blame you if you don't do what I want.

    Not so much a strategy as a cry for help.

    Says the man who supported Blair when he gave away half the Rebate for nothing.

    How much did that cost the UK ? Some where over £50bn I believe ?
    Me thinks they want to change the subject. Can't imagine why. It's all going so terribly terribly well.
    Another person who doesn't want to be reminded of the policy disasters he supported in the past.

    How much did Blair giving away half the Rebate cost the UK ? Its over £50bn, has it reached £100bn yet ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."
    I'll shoot myself in the head and blame you if you don't do what I want.

    Not so much a strategy as a cry for help.

    Says the man who supported Blair when he gave away half the Rebate for nothing.

    How much did that cost the UK ? Some where over £50bn I believe ?
    Me thinks they want to change the subject. Can't imagine why. It's all going so terribly terribly well.
    Another person who doesn't want to be reminded of the policy disasters he supported in the past.

    How much did Blair giving away half the Rebate cost the UK ? Its over £50bn, has it reached £100bn yet ?
    Any government prior to this would be an improvement. Any.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    You get the impression that Tories are itching to play the blame game.

    You express your own view and no doubt want us to submit to the EU.

    The voters will make up their own minds and right now the EU are not covering themselves in glory
    None so blind as those that won't see. The British negotiating team have been naive, incompetent, useless and utterly self defeating. Frankly embarrassing.
    The difficulty is negotiating with 27 countries whose position is the lowest common denominator and there is an intermediary who has to go back and ask for instructions from them each time.

    That's why the EU has had difficulty agreeing trade deals with non EU countries.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,350
    edited November 2017
    Jonathan said:

    You get the impression that Tories are itching to play the blame game.

    Well, supporters of the Johnsonov-Goventrop pact are, certainly..


  • Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?
    How about also sending copies of the two speeches to the PM of every EU country.

    I suspect they would all prefer the second speech.
    Given that Leavers have at every point miscalled how member states would react to Britain's negotiating strategy, I'd have thought a touch of humility about such predictions was called for.
    But that hasn't been Britain's negotiating strategy has it.

    I would certainly have predicted that what we've seen so far would not have been a great success.

    Because what we've seen so far is reminscent of all the other negotiating failures of the past thirty years.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'

    Seriously?

    "Everything we know indicates that she was there on holiday."

    "How do you know?"

    "That is what she says, what her family says and what her employer says. We have no reason to disbelieve them."

    And what if that isn't the case and that is why Boris made his faux pas in the first place? I think Gove's answer was the safest.
    Exactly.

    Gove isn't the family lawyer nor is he the minister involved.
    I just have a suspicion that the government has picked up wind that she was doing rather more than being on holiday. Boris's initial comment was that helping someone become a journalist is not a crime. Of course it isn't in any sane or civilised society. But in Iran....
    Do we believe that the government hasn't been investigating the shit out of this over the past week, or that Gove hasn't been made privy to their findings? Actually that is possible, but the Iranians aren't going to believe it because they cannot know the extent of the dysfunctionalism of the government. So from their POV Gove's "I don't know" will be read as "I know but prefer not to say", because either we investigated and found something dodgy, or we didn't have to investigate all that hard because our security forces knew all along.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?

    Pay the comparatively small amount needed to kick-start serious FTA negotiations and move on. We voted for a weak bargaining position. We need to accept that and get on with it.

    ... and when the FTA negotiations break down or prove to be worthless, and we are 60bn short, then what ? They want the money up front.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,214
    Ishmael_Z said:



    Pay the comparatively small amount needed to kick-start serious FTA negotiations and move on. We voted for a weak bargaining position. We need to accept that and get on with it.

    And the mechanism for deciding that "compartively small amount"? There isn't one - which my proposal overcomes. Under yours, when Barnier comes back and says "That "compartively small amount" will be £100 billion, please...."? - you'd pay? Leaving £45 - £65 billion on the table....great negotiating that!

    You go nuclear should the EU raise the amount it is after. That's how you begin to affect public opinion in the EU27, where it actually matters.

    "Give us your money or else!" - EU negotiating stance
    I have to agree. In a grown up context, the principles on which the payment was to be calculated would be decided at top level, and then armies of accountants down the food chain would do the sums and come up with the figure you arrive at if you apply those principles.
    I think it is time we were a lot more specific and open about what is on the table. We should make it clear:

    That we will pay all our budgetary contributions to March 19. (I think in fairness we have already been clear about this).

    That we will meet our ongoing contributions to any specific programs that we agreed to fund and which started on that basis, research ones being the most obvious.

    That we are willing to pay a sum calculated in a sensible way for pension liabilities to UK citizens who have earned EU pensions.

    That we are willing to remain a part of programs such as the EU patents system and will pay a proportionate share of such institutions going forward in exchange for such membership.

    That we are willing to continue supporting programs helping first receivers deal with immigrants because it is in our interests to have them processed in those countries rather than here.

    Anything else that I have missed.

    And then invite the EU to explain why we should pay any more. I think the above will result in much smaller payments than we are currently talking about.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'
    Nope. Government has position. Ministers should follow it. Politics 101.
    Unless Johnson accidentally spoke the truth...
  • HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?

    Pay the comparatively small amount needed to kick-start serious FTA negotiations and move on. We voted for a weak bargaining position. We need to accept that and get on with it.

    ... and when the FTA negotiations break down or prove to be worthless, and we are 60bn short, then what ? They want the money up front.

    No, they want meaningful progress up front. Once we start talking trade and everyone is bought into that the payments issue becomes a whole lot less fraught.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Isn't sleeping with 14 year olds a vote winner in Alabama?

    Alabama ranks number 4 for child brides in America
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,214
    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'

    Seriously?

    "Everything we know indicates that she was there on holiday."

    "How do you know?"

    "That is what she says, what her family says and what her employer says. We have no reason to disbelieve them."

    And what if that isn't the case and that is why Boris made his faux pas in the first place? I think Gove's answer was the safest.
    Exactly.

    Gove isn't the family lawyer nor is he the minister involved.
    I just have a suspicion that the government has picked up wind that she was doing rather more than being on holiday. Boris's initial comment was that helping someone become a journalist is not a crime. Of course it isn't in any sane or civilised society. But in Iran....
    Do we believe that the government hasn't been investigating the shit out of this over the past week, or that Gove hasn't been made privy to their findings? Actually that is possible, but the Iranians aren't going to believe it because they cannot know the extent of the dysfunctionalism of the government. So from their POV Gove's "I don't know" will be read as "I know but prefer not to say", because either we investigated and found something dodgy, or we didn't have to investigate all that hard because our security forces knew all along.
    I honestly don't know. It is possible that we really don't want to know the answer.
  • Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'
    Nope. Government has position. Ministers should follow it. Politics 101.
    Unless Johnson accidentally spoke the truth...

    In which case he subsequently lied to the Commons.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    rcs1000 said:

    I agree with TSE: the Republicans are value here.

    That being said: could the Dems pull something out of the bag? Yes, it's possible. After all, in Virginia the gap was about 5-6 points wider than the polling in their favour.

    But in Alabama? My money's on the Republicans.

    Agreed, US politics is so tribal now that it’s hard to see anything that could cause Republcians to switch sides. The best the Dems can hope for is that it causes a few Republicans to stay home
    Moore is polling massively below Trump in Alabama.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?

    Pay the comparatively small amount needed to kick-start serious FTA negotiations and move on. We voted for a weak bargaining position. We need to accept that and get on with it.

    They've offered it an EU is demanding a border in the middle of the UK.

    Money is easy. A foreign power interfering in our internal affairs is not.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:



    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    I'll shoot myself in the head and blame you if you don't do what I want.

    Not so much a strategy as a cry for help.

    Says the man who supported Blair when he gave away half the Rebate for nothing.

    How much did that cost the UK ? Some where over £50bn I believe ?
    Me thinks they want to change the subject. Can't imagine why. It's all going so terribly terribly well.
    Another person who doesn't want to be reminded of the policy disasters he supported in the past.

    How much did Blair giving away half the Rebate cost the UK ? Its over £50bn, has it reached £100bn yet ?
    Any government prior to this would be an improvement. Any.
    Feeling remorseful about Blair's incompetence and lies ?

    You should do.

    If Blair had not given away half the Rebate for nothing Leave would not have won.

    Yet you supported Blair's surrender to the EU.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I agree with TSE: the Republicans are value here.

    That being said: could the Dems pull something out of the bag? Yes, it's possible. After all, in Virginia the gap was about 5-6 points wider than the polling in their favour.

    But in Alabama? My money's on the Republicans.

    Agreed, US politics is so tribal now that it’s hard to see anything that could cause Republcians to switch sides. The best the Dems can hope for is that it causes a few Republicans to stay home
    Moore is polling massively below Trump in Alabama.
    Doug Jones is also not Hillary but a socially conservative Democrat


  • Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As to a minimum from March 2019."

    In future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    The critical impression that the EU have acquired about British government over the last twenty years is that they'll say yes to whatever the EU wants.

    Its time to change the way British governments negotiate.

    That is the Brexiteer view of the EU/UK relationship, I accept. That is not necessarily the EU view of it, though. From an EU perspective they have bent over backwards to accommodate the UK and the UK keeps coming back for more.

    The UK keeps coming back for more you say ?

    Please remind me when the last time any of these happened:

    1) The UK was a net recipient of EU money
    2) The UK had a trade surplus with the other EU countries
    3) The UK had net migration to the other EU countries

    Please show me another EU member state that has had so many opt-outs and so many concessions made to it.

    So you don't answer.

    Its always the UK at fault in your view isn't it, always the UK which should pay more, always the UK which should give ground.

    And that's why you supported Blair when he gave away half the Rebate for nothing.

    How much has that cost the UK ? Somewhere over £100bn I believe.

    And what opt-outs and concessions ?

    When the UK joined in 1973 its current was the pound, in 2017 its currency is the pound. Where's the opt-out and concession there ?

    I answered the original assertion you made:

    "The critical impression that the EU have acquired about British government over the last twenty years is that they'll say yes to whatever the EU wants."

    That assertion had absolutely nothing to do with your subsequent repositioning of the goal-posts.

  • Mr. Richard, whilst I agree Blair throwing away half the rebate was reprehensible, I think Brown's reneging upon the Lisbon referendum had a greater impact on the electorate in the EU vote.
  • Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?

    Pay the comparatively small amount needed to kick-start serious FTA negotiations and move on. We voted for a weak bargaining position. We need to accept that and get on with it.

    They've offered it an EU is demanding a border in the middle of the UK.

    Money is easy. A foreign power interfering in our internal affairs is not.

    We are an EU member state. It is not a foreign power. It has made a proposal that we are perfectly at liberty to reject. But we agreed to the scheduling the EU27 set out, so it is not unreasonable for the EU27 to follow it.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:



    Pay the comparatively small amount needed to kick-start serious FTA negotiations and move on. We voted for a weak bargaining position. We need to accept that and get on with it.

    And the mechanism for deciding that "compartively small amount"? There isn't one - which my proposal overcomes. Under yours, when Barnier comes back and says "That "compartively small amount" will be £100 billion, please...."? - you'd pay? Leaving £45 - £65 billion on the table....great negotiating that!

    You go nuclear should the EU raise the amount it is after. That's how you begin to affect public opinion in the EU27, where it actually matters.

    "Give us your money or else!" - EU negotiating stance
    I have to agree. In a grown up context, the principles on which the payment was to be calculated would be decided at top level, and then armies of accountants down the food chain would do the sums and come up with the figure you arrive at if you apply those principles.
    I think it is time we were a lot more specific and open about what is on the table. We should make it clear:

    That we will pay all our budgetary contributions to March 19. (I think in fairness we have already been clear about this).

    That we will meet our ongoing contributions to any specific programs that we agreed to fund and which started on that basis, research ones being the most obvious.

    That we are willing to pay a sum calculated in a sensible way for pension liabilities to UK citizens who have earned EU pensions.

    That we are willing to remain a part of programs such as the EU patents system and will pay a proportionate share of such institutions going forward in exchange for such membership.

    That we are willing to continue supporting programs helping first receivers deal with immigrants because it is in our interests to have them processed in those countries rather than here.

    Anything else that I have missed.

    And then invite the EU to explain why we should pay any more. I think the above will result in much smaller payments than we are currently talking about.
    It's been clear that it's going nowhere since the EU refused to shift from ECJ extra-territorial authority. That's simply unacceptable


  • Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?
    How about also sending copies of the two speeches to the PM of every EU country.

    I suspect they would all prefer the second speech.
    Given that Leavers have at every point miscalled how member states would react to Britain's negotiating strategy, I'd have thought a touch of humility about such predictions was called for.
    But that hasn't been Britain's negotiating strategy has it.

    I would certainly have predicted that what we've seen so far would not have been a great success.

    Because what we've seen so far is reminscent of all the other negotiating failures of the past thirty years.
    I find it easy making predictions in retrospect easy too.

    Your negotiating strategy would, I predict, be a crashing failure because you are treating it as transactional when by necessity, because Britain and the EU are going to be neighbours, it needs to be relational. Putting a gun to your neighbours' heads and seeking to set them against each other rarely helps defuse tensions.

    My - high risk - negotiating strategy would be to state that Britain believes that it has provided all the clarity that it considers necessary at this stage on settling accounts and to provide detailed and workable papers on citizenship rights and the Irish border. Britain should also note that if the EU does not move on to the next stage in December then time will in practice have run out, to the benefit of no one.

    I doubt the EU would refuse to move onto the next stage on money alone. Being seen to be the instigator of car crash Brexit over a few billion at a time when Britain was conspicuously working in good faith would look awful.

    The EU does not want to look like the bad guy to itself. And in truth, the money isn't that important to them.

    That said, I'm not sure there's a solution to the Irish border that can get through Parliament.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I agree with TSE: the Republicans are value here.

    That being said: could the Dems pull something out of the bag? Yes, it's possible. After all, in Virginia the gap was about 5-6 points wider than the polling in their favour.

    But in Alabama? My money's on the Republicans.

    Agreed, US politics is so tribal now that it’s hard to see anything that could cause Republcians to switch sides. The best the Dems can hope for is that it causes a few Republicans to stay home
    Moore is polling massively below Trump in Alabama.
    Doug Jones is also not Hillary but a socially conservative Democrat
    With an impeccable record bringing racist child murderers to justice after the case languished for decades. He will turn out the African American vote.
  • DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:



    Pay the comparatively small amount needed to kick-start serious FTA negotiations and move on. We voted for a weak bargaining position. We need to accept that and get on with it.

    And the mechanism for deciding that "compartively small amount"? There isn't one - which my proposal overcomes. Under yours, when Barnier comes back and says "That "compartively small amount" will be £100 billion, please...."? - you'd pay? Leaving £45 - £65 billion on the table....great negotiating that!

    You go nuclear should the EU raise the amount it is after. That's how you begin to affect public opinion in the EU27, where it actually matters.

    "Give us your money or else!" - EU negotiating stance
    I have to agree. In a grown up context, the principles on which the payment was to be calculated would be decided at top level, and then armies of accountants down the food chain would do the sums and come up with the figure you arrive at if you apply those principles.
    I think it is time we were a lot more specific and open about what is on the table. We should make it clear:

    That we will pay all our budgetary contributions to March 19. (I think in fairness we have already been clear about this).

    That we will meet our ongoing contributions to any specific programs that we agreed to fund and which started on that basis, research ones being the most obvious.

    That we are willing to pay a sum calculated in a sensible way for pension liabilities to UK citizens who have earned EU pensions.

    That we are willing to remain a part of programs such as the EU patents system and will pay a proportionate share of such institutions going forward in exchange for such membership.

    That we are willing to continue supporting programs helping first receivers deal with immigrants because it is in our interests to have them processed in those countries rather than here.

    Anything else that I have missed.

    And then invite the EU to explain why we should pay any more. I think the above will result in much smaller payments than we are currently talking about.
    Indeed.

    But you clearly have far too much sense to be either a government minster or foreign office diplomat.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'
    Nope. Government has position. Ministers should follow it. Politics 101.
    Unless Johnson accidentally spoke the truth...

    In which case he subsequently lied to the Commons.

    Not impossible. Sometimes what is wrong is the right thing to do
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'
    Nope. Government has position. Ministers should follow it. Politics 101.
    Unless Johnson accidentally spoke the truth...
    Johnson is in charge of MI6, which is not a great position for someone who "accidentally speaks the truth". If he did, the government owes it to Mrs Z-R to be working its socks off concocting a convincing falsehood and fabricating evidence in support of it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,287
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a professional negotiator, I would go into the next meeting with Barnier and say "I have here two press releases, to be issued in 24 hours. The one in this pocket says that due to the greed and intransigence of the EU, it has become clear that negotiations have fundamentally broken down - depsite the UK having tabled a sum of £x billion to conclude an agreed exit strategy. Let us remember, this was a payment outside any required by the Treaty. The UK Govt. has therefore, regretfully come to the conclusion that in March 2019, it will exit on WTO terms, with no payment being made to the EU. We will use the time to talk to those who wish to ensure that disruption to their national trade and travel is kept to a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."
    I'll shoot myself in the head and blame you if you don't do what I want.

    Not so much a strategy as a cry for help.

    Says the man who supported Blair when he gave away half the Rebate for nothing.

    How much did that cost the UK ? Some where over £50bn I believe ?
    Me thinks they want to change the subject. Can't imagine why. It's all going so terribly terribly well.
    Another person who doesn't want to be reminded of the policy disasters he supported in the past.

    How much did Blair giving away half the Rebate cost the UK ? Its over £50bn, has it reached £100bn yet ?
    Any government prior to this would be an improvement. Any.
    Let's have the coalition back. At least it was grown up government back then, with reasonably grown up opposition as well.
  • HYUFD said:

    May and Corbyn have just come out at the Cenotaph with their wreaths

    It's always an intensely moving ceremony. A very profound and important ongoing link with our past.

    A few years ago on Remembrance Sunday, when he was 15 or so, our middle son went AWOL. We did not know where he was and could not contact him. It was extremely worrying. He finally got in touch in the afternoon and it turned out that he had taken the train down to London early in the morning to be in Whitehall to see the whole thing live, and then to spend time with the veterans afterwards. It made me feel incredibly proud.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sir James Dyson on Marr says the government should walk away from negotiations with the EU and not pay an exit bill and let the EU come to the UK for any trade bill. He also called for an end to corporation tax

    Walk away Brexit should be on the table, after the EU have banked May's Florence speech - and are still holding out their hands for more.

    As a minimum from March 2019."

    In my other pocket is a press release that says "The EU and the UK are pleased to announce that an interim agreement has been reached in our Brexit discussions. The final settlement to be paid by the UK on leaving the EU will be in the range of £35billion to £55 billion, with a final settlement number to be reached taking account of the level of ongoing membership of certain EU bodies, and of set-off for the value of assets in the EU acquired by the UK's period of membership. We are now looking forward to a productive next stage of talks on our future trading arrangements."

    OK, Mr Barnier, you have 24 hours to tell me which press release I make..."

    Brilliant. That gets you great headlines in the UK where it does not matter one little bit, while reinforcing all negative impressions about the UK in the EU27 created over the last year, where it does matter. You will also not be walking away to the status quo, but to a significantly worse position.

    It gets the EU deciding what sort of Brexit they want. Ball in your court, Mr Barnier, is the expression, I think?

    And your counter-proposal is what, exactly?

    Pay the comparatively small amount needed to kick-start serious FTA negotiations and move on. We voted for a weak bargaining position. We need to accept that and get on with it.

    They've offered it an EU is demanding a border in the middle of the UK.

    Money is easy. A foreign power interfering in our internal affairs is not.

    We are an EU member state. It is not a foreign power. It has made a proposal that we are perfectly at liberty to reject. But we agreed to the scheduling the EU27 set out, so it is not unreasonable for the EU27 to follow it.

    The point is it has set a number of conditions it knows are unacceptable. It is offering a choice between satrapy and hostility

    I am saddened because we have much in common with our European friends and we could have reached a sensible agreement. But they have chosen s different path
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    calum said:
    He did answer it. And he did so in the only way he sensibly could. It is not for the Government to know what every one of its citizens is doing when they are abroad and if they claimed they did then the answer would be viewed with scorn by the Iranians.

    If Gove had given any othervanswer then Marr's next question would gave been 'how do you know?'
    Nope. Government has position. Ministers should follow it. Politics 101.
    Unless Johnson accidentally spoke the truth...

    In which case he subsequently lied to the Commons.

    Not impossible. Sometimes what is wrong is the right thing to do

    Which means he did the wrong thing previously and should apologise.

  • HYUFD said:

    May and Corbyn have just come out at the Cenotaph with their wreaths

    It's always an intensely moving ceremony. A very profound and important ongoing link with our past.

    A few years ago on Remembrance Sunday, when he was 15 or so, our middle son went AWOL. We did not know where he was and could not contact him. It was extremely worrying. He finally got in touch in the afternoon and it turned out that he had taken the train down to London early in the morning to be in Whitehall to see the whole thing live, and then to spend time with the veterans afterwards. It made me feel incredibly proud.

    Lovely story - today's service demonstrates our Country at it's best
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    May and Corbyn have just come out at the Cenotaph with their wreaths

    It's always an intensely moving ceremony. A very profound and important ongoing link with our past.

    A few years ago on Remembrance Sunday, when he was 15 or so, our middle son went AWOL. We did not know where he was and could not contact him. It was extremely worrying. He finally got in touch in the afternoon and it turned out that he had taken the train down to London early in the morning to be in Whitehall to see the whole thing live, and then to spend time with the veterans afterwards. It made me feel incredibly proud.

    It is indeed. Well done your son
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,609
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I agree with TSE: the Republicans are value here.

    That being said: could the Dems pull something out of the bag? Yes, it's possible. After all, in Virginia the gap was about 5-6 points wider than the polling in their favour.

    But in Alabama? My money's on the Republicans.

    Agreed, US politics is so tribal now that it’s hard to see anything that could cause Republcians to switch sides. The best the Dems can hope for is that it causes a few Republicans to stay home
    Moore is polling massively below Trump in Alabama.
    Doug Jones is also not Hillary but a socially conservative Democrat
    With an impeccable record bringing racist child murderers to justice after the case languished for decades. He will turn out the African American vote.
    If any Democrat can win Alabama he can
This discussion has been closed.