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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the Alabama sentate race
Up to a few days ago it seemed the most exciting thing in the Alabama senate race would be the Republican primary, which culminated with the Donald Trump endorsed candidate Luther Strange was defeated by Roy Moore, then a story broke earlier on this week when a woman accused Roy Moore of initiating sexual conduct with her when she was 14 years old and he was 32.
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Alabama's black vote is a good example but I could be corrected.
Although today's Rawnsley:
It was a surprise to everyone, not least himself, when she made him Britain’s face to the world. There was no love in that appointment. The prime minister can’t stand the man she made foreign secretary and it was not long after she elevated him that she made a rather vicious joke about having him put down like a dog when he had outlived his usefulness. The calculus at the time was that one of the senior offices of state had to go to a Brexiter and it would be better, in the famous expression of Lyndon Johnson, to have his namesake “pissing out of the tent”. I recall some commentators and many Tories hailing it as a May masterstroke; it doesn’t look so clever now.
There are also some warnings from history, the most pertinent being the example of Harold Macmillan. By 1962, mould was eating his Tory government, though it had taken more than five years for the rot to set in, rather than just 16 months. He responded with “the Night of the Long Knives” when he dismissed seven of his cabinet, a third of the total, and among them the chancellor. He conceived this as a gambit that would rejuvenate his government and demonstrate that he still had a grip. There was a furious backlash and more scandals followed. He was gone from Number 10, using illness as an excuse for his retirement, the following year.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEwpKCXirC8
That being said: could the Dems pull something out of the bag? Yes, it's possible. After all, in Virginia the gap was about 5-6 points wider than the polling in their favour.
But in Alabama? My money's on the Republicans.
Doug Lewis appears to be a genuine right wing American idiot.Becket Adams has noted that the Russians put their currency sign after the value as Mr Lewis did.
You're suggesting the even more unlikely scenario where a liberal posted it pretending to be a right wing idiot and deliberately getting the currency sign wrong to point to Russian involvement.
Come on, seriously?
Every time I raise the physical impossibilities of a no deal Brexit loons tell me I have It wrong...
Edit: I shall take another look in a week or so, which will give the swords hanging over Boris and Damian Green time to fall or move away.
Merely because you have an important business appointment that means you mustn't miss a train, doesn't make it impossible for you to miss the train.
Of course, a really bold move would be to return Hammond to the FO, put Rudd at the Treasury and put Gove at the Home Office - but I don't think that will happen somehow.
2. With no prospect of a deal business will start unplugging itself in the new year. That wazzock Davis said "a deal will be done" at the last minute. Not so says anyone who understands the process where the European Parliament has to sign off any deal inside the deadline.
A deal needs to be done. But to assess the power balance as being in our favour is to fundamentally misunderstand the nature of the negotiation. This has been our problem since the start.
Hmm. Not tempted either way, to be honest. The Trumptonites suffered reversals in recent contests, no?
F1: glad Bottas got pole but a little peeved Raikkonen couldn't be a tiny bit faster. Should've set up a hedge, so a schoolboy error on my part.
Interesting grid for the race. Need to check the forecast.
But it is telling that no preparations are being made. The first step would presumably be the identifying of locations for the expanded facilities and getting compulsory purchase orders in place. Of course the other alternative is to transfer cross channel trade to Southampton and/or Felixstowe. This is quite doable but I imagine the inhabitants of Essex and Hampshire would have some opinions about the increase in traffic. And I would think that the job losses would be noticed in Kent too.
So on the whole I think physical impossibility is a slight exaggeration, but really hard work with some extremely serious consequences and a big price tag would fit well enough.
That does however beg the question of where this €60 billion figure comes from. That may include pensions of course, but that should not amount to four times income!
More information here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8036097.stm#start
bribebungblackmailpayment there’s no basis in the Treaties for asking, they think we’ll agree to anything if the trade talks don’t start and the clock’s running down.I think we should say that we’re leaving to WTO terms and spending the remaining 18 months on getting everything ready for that scenario.
That seems about as likely as me getting a date with Margot Robbie, TSE ordering a Hawaiian pizza or Boris Johnson showing something vaguely akin to competence. However, we live in strange and disturbing times and the only thing we can really confidently say is we have sod all idea what will happen next.
And I think some have misunderstood the impossibility I refer to. Business is currently costed on just in time delivery with no delays. Add delays and you have to add inventory to cover those delays - which costs money as does the delay and the additional logistics costs. Which is where "food bills up 20%" comes from. The impossibility is that our economy can't afford 20% higher costs. BMW aremy going to shrug their shoulders and say "fine". They'll switch production, initially we'll be left with Hams Hall only building for Plant Oxford and that factory only building for the UK. Then they won't be viable and will shut due to being designed for higher volume that's no longer there.
That's the impossibility. We can't switch back from free trade just in time to customs delays. That's why we wanted into the single market to start with. And "the EU will give us a bespoke FTO in 5 minutes" is a fantasy - impossible to achieve even if the will existed according to the people who'd negotiate it. Yet this impossible fantasy is what wazzocks pin their hopes on.
He's barely over evens on Betfair. I'd probably hedge to be up 1-2 stakes if he doesn't win, and much more if he does.
For him, the Mercedes is reliable and quick, and hot weather may hamper the Ferraris. Against, the margin is tiny and he's got two Ferraris and a Red Bull in close contention. There's also always a chance of first corner carnage at Brazil.
https://twitter.com/gavinsellar/status/929148239986782208
https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/929497844494602240
In other Alabama news, the Senate judiciary committee just rubber stamped Trump's appointment of a right wing blogger, who has never tried a case, to be a federal judge...
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-judge-20171110-story.html
1) Stay in (not possible politically)
2) Take it on the chin and go WTO (need intensive preparations now)
3) Extend A50 to allow a new team to take over from DD (May seems set to legislate this as impossible)
To do none of these is the rankest incompetence possible, so nailed on for May to do.
Shouldn't be difficult.
Perhaps however I am overrating their sense. When we warned of it in the briefing papers they accused us of blackmail, which stands as a rather unselfaware comment in light of subsequent events.
I'd lay it as well - though as I laid my Bottas bet *before* qualifying you should perhaps take my views with a pinch of salt.
Vettel does seem confident about the Ferrari's long run pace, and given the fragility of the ultrasofts, he has chances beyond the first corner.
It will be interesting to watch Hamilton, starting with a new engine, and on the more durable tyres - and with no championship to worry about.
One country that the UK would need to develop friendlier relations with post a no deal Brexit would be Russia, the other major non-EU European state and no friend of the EU.
The Mercedes can suffer in traffic, though. But the long straights should be super for him. That said, the top six are in a league of their own and he may struggle versus a Williams or Force India.
You are also probably right in your second point which is not the least of the unfortunate consequences of Brexit.
WTO status with no talks on a FTA until the financial issues are settled by the courts is as far as it will go. Our choice.
What further "punishment" do you expect?
Personally I think the prospects of No Deal are overrated. I know the EU well and these crises are normal in negotiations. We will successfully move to the next stage of negotiations, with a financial promise that is ever so slightly fudged.
But Brexiteers are mistaken if they think that the EU27 are desperate for a deal. Their self-image is that they are rational people trying to reach a reasonable agreement with unpredictable partners who may not be able to deliver their side of the deal - a bit like the nuclear deal with Iran. They'll patiently keep trying, but are not in the mood to make massive concessions. Consequently, No Deal is possible, and we should certainly have a workable contingency plan.
There were some interesting pictures of some very badly worn supersofts from practice, though.
What would you regard as a workable contingency plan - soup kitchens?
The EU, amongst other things which can perhaps be fudged, want to exert judicial imperialism over the UK after we leave. Having different laws for different people in the UK is unacceptable.
The EU cannot resolve the UK's cognitive dissonance. The have cake and eat it policy of treating the EU as an ala carte menu needs to be resolved by ourselves.
Morning Peter, hope you are both flourishing!
A de facto extension to A50. Yes, we're out, but we agree to consider everything for 2 years exactly as though we were still in, including ongoing payments. There would be a hit in Government credibility, but they could sell it: "As promised we are indeed leaving, on exactly the date we stated, but in the national interest it's necessary to have a transitional period where things remain as they are while we prepare for WTO." Breieers have bought the idea of transition already, so it would just be a slightly more embarrassing version of it.
The planes can't fly if we only pretend we are still signatories to Open Skies
Ditto Northern Ireland.
Post Brexit, the ECHR and ECJ should have no jurisdiction in the UK.
The Cabinet heavyweights made a series of veiled threats in a secret missive to the Prime Minister – which contained blunt instructions on how she should deliver the ‘hard Brexit’ they demand.
The incredible letter also contains the sinister-sounding instruction that Mrs May should make rebel Cabinet Ministers toe their line by ‘clarifying their minds’.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5073567/Boris-Gove-s-plot-hijack-Number-10-exposed.html#ixzz4yCrOB1JA
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Mr. Eagles, yes. And if Scots sought to impose Scottish law on England or if Englishmen sought to impose English law on Scotland, that would be unacceptable too.
Anyway, I must pay attention to the pre-race article. Done most of it. Just need to sort out some sort of bet.
Needs work
Betting PostHamilton is 2.4 (7/5) on Betfair Sportsbook #Oddsonthat to not finish on the podium.
He's 3.3 on Betfair Exchange to finish on the podium.
Edited extra bit: damn, gone already from the #Oddsonthat market. Can't count it as a tip really, given it instantly vanished.
@jessicaelgot: Sadiq Khan says Boris Johnson should quit as foreign secretary, says he has not performed his first duty which is diplomacy
I just got a pale imitation on Hamilton but guaranteed green is always nice.
https://audioboom.com/posts/6463162-peter-hitchens-says-the-uk-is-in-a-pre-civil-war-condition
It's on getting out of the Euro-mess, not on impending civil war. But the govt has seemed since 2015 to be in headless chicken mode. So this compromise may be too much to hope for. It 'only' leaves the Irish border to be resolved.
https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comments/7c16ob/blistering_on_the_inside_of_the_left_front_tyre/
Just going through the pre-race ramble now.
STFS is realising capital assets and using the proceeds for current spending rather than liability reduction or reinvestment in new assets
MMT is the belief that government spending can be completely independent of revenue generation (the more conservative* view is not that budgets need to be in balance all the time, but that over the life of the business cycle the debt/gbp ratio should fall. The implies that debt can rise (i.e. there can be a deficit) provided that it is less than the increase in the size of the economy
(NB deliberately a small c - not meant to be party politicial, so responses about how the Tory government has racked up more debt in the last 5 years that anyone since King John are missing the point)
It was arrogance that dragged us into the EU project and it is only by understanding the reality of both the project and our place in it that we will come to understand it is not in our interests to Remain.
Betting PostF1: pre-race ramble now up:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/brazil-pre-race-2017.html
I considered a very large number of bets, but in the end just went with Ricciardo to not be classified at 5.
Refreshing to see the Remainariat having a "Let's all laugh at the pervy foreigners" moment.
That she was English mattered not one jot (and rightly so, by the way).
IIRC no one over the age of 21 can have sexual relations with a 14/15 year old in Germany.
Some relevant differences:
1. Trump never ran pretending to be a saint. His story was unpleasant, but not that shocking given his public persona. Moore has run on an explicitly religious ticket - literally holier than thou.
2. Trump's comments were crass... but could be written off as 'locker room bravado'. If you wanted to (I don't, but I'm not a Trump man), you could say it was a hollow boast and not actually something he does in reality. The allegation about Moore is that he did in fact prey on young girls.
3. Trump was talking about adult women. It's not my view at all (there is a lot of stuff about financial power, physical size, a dominating personality etc in play) but I do know that there are generations and cultures who say, 'if you're an adult, all's fair - just slap his hand away'. But with Moore, the most serious allegation is about a child and the argument doesn't apply.
4. Trump was up against Clinton. Some of his supporters no doubt had a long night of the soul after pussy-gate. But Clinton was still Clinton, and hugely divisive. Doug Jones is a conservative, reasonably inoffensive (for Alabamans) Democrat. He favours further restrictions on abortion, for example. If you're a moderate Republican, he's a real option. If you're an evangelical, you remain at home, and Doug Jones gets in, you may lose little sleep - he'll probably be out in 2020 and isn't exactly a west coast liberal.
5. Moore is a poor candidate anyway. He has a vocal, large, organised core of supporters - that's great for primaries, but he's always alienated a lot of moderates and Independents. Trump won Alabama by 28% - the same as Shelby in 2016. Sessions was unopposed in 2014. Romney by 22% in 2012. Polls were giving Moore a only high single digit lead BEFORE this scandal broke - enough to be confident, but crap for the GOP in Alabama.
6. The Republicans are well down and Democrats well up on last year. That was clear in the off-year elections, and Democrats tended to outperform the polls last week (notably in Virginia, where it was meant to be a nail-biter but ended up comfortable, but also elsewhere). The suggestion is Democrats are motivated and will probably vote so, if they go into election day level, I'd back Jones.
The value on the odds quoted is (just about) with Jones. I'd say Moore is just favourite, but narrowly. Indeed, I'd be interested in write-in odds. If this gets worse for Moore, Strange is still in play - the same happened, of course, in Alaska in 2010 when Murkowski lost the primary and won the write-in.