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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the 3rd successive month YouGov Brexit tracker has “wrong

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The notes posted on that twitter account, and the statement by Hopkins, are just saddening. Seems like petty stuff so far to destroy somebody over, but we'll see.
    There seems to be almost nothing to this story at all. It’s damn close to defamation if she’s never said anything to him or anyone else, then goes goes to a newspaper and says the guy has been after her for 20 years in a bad way. Kerry was born in 1965, so would have been in her thirties 20 years ago

    Kerry McCarthy alleges she has received unwanted attention from fellow party MP since mid-1990s:

    “None of it is very tangible. If I had told anyone, it would have just been like gossip, instead of a complaint – you’ve seen what it is. But it is really inappropriate.”

    Kelvin made overtures to her which were not rude, lewd or physical, just unwanted.

    https://order-order.com/2017/11/10/kelvin-hopkins-kerry-mccarthy-story-coming/
    More detail here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/10/labour-mp-accuses-kelvin-hopkins-of-inappropriate-behaviour

    It's certainly, as described, very odd behaviour, and one can quite understand that it made the women feel uncomfortable. 'Inappropriate' seems to be the right description. He sounds like a very immature and rather sad chap TBH.
    That’s a bit weird, but I don’t understand why she’s bringing it up now having never said anything to him in the meantime. I’m sure if she’d said stop he would have stopped, they were equals in the party.

    Is clumsily asking someone for a date two decades ago reason to have your name in the papers today, I bloody well hope not!
    She did it in support of the Junior activist who made the initial complaint. Kerry also said she believed others were also targetted.

    This was not a rebuffed request for a date, it was repeated inappropriate correspondence over an extended period of time. The man does not understand boundaries.
    And that’s enough to see him suspended from his party today?

    This is the most trivial case yet, by a long way. I’m afraid I keep coming back to where the efforts really need to be focussed; going on about men who are a little socially awkward isn’t going to make progress when people are being raped and molested and their complaints covered up.
    https://twitter.com/bexbailey/status/925726372730949632
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    The notes posted on that twitter account, and the statement by Hopkins, are just saddening. Seems like petty stuff so far to destroy somebody over, but we'll see.
    There seems to be almost nothing to this story at all. It’s damn close to defamation if she’s never said anything to him or anyone else, then goes goes to a newspaper and says the guy has been after her for 20 years in a bad way. Kerry was born in 1965, so would have been in her thirties 20 years ago

    Kerry McCarthy alleges she has received unwanted attention from fellow party MP since mid-1990s:

    “None of it is very tangible. If I had told anyone, it would have just been like gossip, instead of a complaint – you’ve seen what it is. But it is really inappropriate.”

    Kelvin made overtures to her which were not rude, lewd or physical, just unwanted.

    https://order-order.com/2017/11/10/kelvin-hopkins-kerry-mccarthy-story-coming/
    Has it got to the point where just asking for a date is counted as harassment?
    According to Yougov 7% of young women would see it as such.
    Thank God I'm married already. I think what I did to get to talk to my wife would have been actionable in law now if I tried it today and she didn't fancy me!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TonyE said:

    Rhubarb said:

    TonyE said:


    This might be an insight into the German mindset on Brexit
    http://globalbritain.co.uk/a-german-perspective-on-the-brexit-negotiations/

    That's a great read.
    "The Euro however is the time bomb that will likely blow up the European institutions in a single cataclysmic event. I am convinced it will do so during the next German government’s term in office."

    Whatever you're position that's absolutely terrifying.
    The problem for us is that being in or out of the EU will make no difference in that respect. Our neighbours imploding will only be detrimental to us.
    Predictions of imminent collapse of the EU or EZ are countless over the decades.

    Strangely both survive and prosper, indeed the EZ is growing quite strongly again.
  • TonyE said:

    @SouthernObserver

    Where I'm concerned about Citizens rights, it's that they will try to insert the ECJ into the UK legal process post Brexit. That will not be politically acceptable to any one in the UK - it would be like saying we aren't a member, but we're still a vassal.

    Again, I think there's a degree to which the EU negotiators know this, and that is why they want it. Ask the impossible, then pretend that we are unreasonable not to grant it. The EU seems not to be happy with 'Progress' - it wants absolute commitments.

    They know the voting numbers were close, and the political class were no aligned with the voters. Create a disaster, then rescue it with 'reform' - associate membership a la Duff's proposal. Every day I'm by remainers that 'Brexiteers are dying' and 'remainers are turning 18'. Hard to think that it's only Twitter that thinks this way.

    I think that what the EU27 wants is to protect settled EU citizens' rights in the UK. I think they are genuinely concerned that these are vulnerable and could be easily changed post-Brexit. They want the UK to come up with a mechanism for preventing that. The ECJ is their suggestion, but they are not wedded to it. There will be a deal on this, almost certainly.

    I really do not see a conspiracy to keep us in. It might suit Ireland and a few of the other smaller countries bordering the North Sea, but France and Germany have bigger fish to fry, while Italy and Spain have bigger problems to worry about. They will all want a deal, but they do not want to give the UK a free pass. It was always going to be this way. If promises about sunlit uplands, easy deals, they need us more than we need them and so on had not been made I think we would be a lot further down the road than we are now.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172



    One characteristic if these cases is the bewilderment that the accused suffer. They cannot see what they have done is wrong.

    Carwyn is looking for someone to carry out an “independent review” of his actions.

    Obviously, Carwyn needs someone pretty unimaginative, who is willing to accept on trust what the Welsh Government tell him.

    And someone with an emollient manner, who can shut the Sergeant family and their pesky solicitors up, but do it nice and politely.

    And someone who can squash (former LibDem) Leighton Andrews, with his annoying claims of a culture of bullying by the Welsh Assembly Government. You can be a bit more heavy-handed here, as noone actually likes an ex-LibDem.

    I think you’ve got a good chance, if you fancy the gig.
  • IanB2 said:


    It's mostly nonsense. The structure of Celtic languages is significantly different from Germanic ones, and insofar as there are similarities we are of course talking about Indo-European languages that all share a common root (which was significantly closer back then, given subsequent linguistic divergence). The dramatic scarcity of celtic inscriptions and Celtic place names in England (outside some border areas) - not much more than a few rivers - doesn't suggest we are simply talking about a handful of elite Saxons taking control of an indigenous Celtic population. Settlement patterns are very different also - simplistically, celts liked living on hilltops and saxons in river valleys and woodland clearings.

    Indeed it is quite possible that a Germanic language was being spoken in south east England before the Saxons arrived.

    Such nonsense that it has been an ongoing debate in academic linguistic circles and archaeology for the last 4 decades at least

    And your additional claims about settlement patterns are completely wrong. The evidence for elite takeover is there in settlements, in DNA evidence, in tooth enamel isotope analysis, in burials, and in place names. Almost every major river in England has a name derived from Brythonic not AS origins.

    Archaeologists have not believed the ' Celts lived on hilltops' rubbish since before the war.
    Do you have any favourite articles you'd recommend reading on this?
    One example of this is the excavations at West Heslerton in Yorkshire. Another would be the excavations at Wally Corner in Oxfordshire. In both cases these are early migration period cemeteries which, from their grave goods and burial orientations, had been assumed to be Anglo-Saxon, but which actually proved to have very few individuals who originated outside of the British Isles. I am working away at the moment so don't have access to my files but there is plenty of information and papers about Isotope analysis from these sites on the internet.
    Thank you that'll give me enough to google
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    TonyE said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    The notes posted on that twitter account, and the statement by Hopkins, are just saddening. Seems like petty stuff so far to destroy somebody over, but we'll see.
    There seems to be almost nothing to this story at all. It’s damn close to defamation if she’s never said anything to him or anyone else, then goes goes to a newspaper and says the guy has been after her for 20 years in a bad way. Kerry was born in 1965, so would have been in her thirties 20 years ago

    Kerry McCarthy alleges she has received unwanted attention from fellow party MP since mid-1990s:

    “None of it is very tangible. If I had told anyone, it would have just been like gossip, instead of a complaint – you’ve seen what it is. But it is really inappropriate.”

    Kelvin made overtures to her which were not rude, lewd or physical, just unwanted.

    https://order-order.com/2017/11/10/kelvin-hopkins-kerry-mccarthy-story-coming/
    Has it got to the point where just asking for a date is counted as harassment?
    According to Yougov 7% of young women would see it as such.
    Thank God I'm married already. I think what I did to get to talk to my wife would have been actionable in law now if I tried it today and she didn't fancy me!
    Likewise.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    TonyE said:

    @SouthernObserver

    Where I'm concerned about Citizens rights, it's that they will try to insert the ECJ into the UK legal process post Brexit. That will not be politically acceptable to any one in the UK - it would be like saying we aren't a member, but we're still a vassal.

    Again, I think there's a degree to which the EU negotiators know this, and that is why they want it. Ask the impossible, then pretend that we are unreasonable not to grant it. The EU seems not to be happy with 'Progress' - it wants absolute commitments.

    They know the voting numbers were close, and the political class were no aligned with the voters. Create a disaster, then rescue it with 'reform' - associate membership a la Duff's proposal. Every day I'm by remainers that 'Brexiteers are dying' and 'remainers are turning 18'. Hard to think that it's only Twitter that thinks this way.

    I think that what the EU27 wants is to protect settled EU citizens' rights in the UK. I think they are genuinely concerned that these are vulnerable and could be easily changed post-Brexit. They want the UK to come up with a mechanism for preventing that. The ECJ is their suggestion, but they are not wedded to it. There will be a deal on this, almost certainly.

    I really do not see a conspiracy to keep us in. It might suit Ireland and a few of the other smaller countries bordering the North Sea, but France and Germany have bigger fish to fry, while Italy and Spain have bigger problems to worry about. They will all want a deal, but they do not want to give the UK a free pass. It was always going to be this way. If promises about sunlit uplands, easy deals, they need us more than we need them and so on had not been made I think we would be a lot further down the road than we are now.

    We offered them a method - enshrining the Citizens rights issue in the final relationship treaty. That way, trade was tied inextricably to citizens rights - we couldn't alter the rights issue without the treaty falling (or being subject to the Supreme Court in the UK, which is very independent). Treaties cannot be amended by parliament, they are not 'UK Law'. But they are actionable in UK law.

    They didn't accept this. It might be a cultural misunderstanding of the way that the UK court system protects us against the state, or it might be because they just weren't ready to agree anything yet on the basis they thought they could get the ECJ into the picture. But the mechanism was offered, and was secure.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    TonyE said:

    Rhubarb said:

    TonyE said:


    This might be an insight into the German mindset on Brexit
    http://globalbritain.co.uk/a-german-perspective-on-the-brexit-negotiations/

    That's a great read.
    "The Euro however is the time bomb that will likely blow up the European institutions in a single cataclysmic event. I am convinced it will do so during the next German government’s term in office."

    Whatever you're position that's absolutely terrifying.
    The problem for us is that being in or out of the EU will make no difference in that respect. Our neighbours imploding will only be detrimental to us.
    Predictions of imminent collapse of the EU or EZ are countless over the decades.

    Strangely both survive and prosper, indeed the EZ is growing quite strongly again.
    Quíte. The collapse of the EZ has been predicted almost weekly since it was formed - the best part of 20 years ago.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    TonyE said:

    TonyE said:

    @SouthernObserver

    Where I'm concerned about Citizens rights, it's that they will try to insert the ECJ into the UK legal process post Brexit. That will not be politically acceptable to any one in the UK - it would be like saying we aren't a member, but we're still a vassal.

    Again, I think there's a degree to which the EU negotiators know this, and that is why they want it. Ask the impossible, then pretend that we are unreasonable not to grant it. The EU seems not to be happy with 'Progress' - it wants absolute commitments.

    They know the voting numbers were close, and the political class were no aligned with the voters. Create a disaster, then rescue it with 'reform' - associate membership a la Duff's proposal. Every day I'm by remainers that 'Brexiteers are dying' and 'remainers are turning 18'. Hard to think that it's only Twitter that thinks this way.

    I think that what the EU27 wants is to protect settled EU citizens' rights in the UK. I think they are genuinely concerned that these are vulnerable and could be easily changed post-Brexit. They want the UK to come up with a mechanism for preventing that. The ECJ is their suggestion, but they are not wedded to it. There will be a deal on this, almost certainly.

    I really do not see a conspiracy to keep us in. It might suit Ireland and a few of the other smaller countries bordering the North Sea, but France and Germany have bigger fish to fry, while Italy and Spain have bigger problems to worry about. They will all want a deal, but they do not want to give the UK a free pass. It was always going to be this way. If promises about sunlit uplands, easy deals, they need us more than we need them and so on had not been made I think we would be a lot further down the road than we are now.

    We offered them a method - enshrining the Citizens rights issue in the final relationship treaty. That way, trade was tied inextricably to citizens rights - we couldn't alter the rights issue without the treaty falling (or being subject to the Supreme Court in the UK, which is very independent). Treaties cannot be amended by parliament, they are not 'UK Law'. But they are actionable in UK law.

    They didn't accept this. It might be a cultural misunderstanding of the way that the UK court system protects us against the state, or it might be because they just weren't ready to agree anything yet on the basis they thought they could get the ECJ into the picture. But the mechanism was offered, and was secure.
    I thought that proposal had not been rejected. It seems eminently sensible.
  • TonyE said:

    TonyE said:

    @SouthernObserver

    Where I'm concerned about Citizens rights, it's that they will try to insert the ECJ into the UK legal process post Brexit. That will not be politically acceptable to any one in the UK - it would be like saying we aren't a member, but we're still a vassal.

    Again, I think there's a degree to which the EU negotiators know this, and that is why they want it. Ask the impossible, then pretend that we are unreasonable not to grant it. The EU seems not to be happy with 'Progress' - it wants absolute commitments.

    They know the voting numbers were close, and the political class were no aligned with the voters. Create a disaster, then rescue it with 'reform' - associate membership a la Duff's proposal. Every day I'm by remainers that 'Brexiteers are dying' and 'remainers are turning 18'. Hard to think that it's only Twitter that thinks this way.

    I think that what the EU27 wants is to protect settled EU citizens' rights in the UK. I think they are genuinely concerned that these are vulnerable and could be easily changed post-Brexit. They want the UK to come up with a mechanism for preventing that. The ECJ is their suggestion, but they are not wedded to it. There will be a deal on this, almost certainly.

    I really do not see a conspiracy to keep us in. It might suit Ireland and a few of the other smaller countries bordering the North Sea, but France and Germany have bigger fish to fry, while Italy and Spain have bigger problems to worry about. They will all want a deal, but they do not want to give the UK a free pass. It was always going to be this way. If promises about sunlit uplands, easy deals, they need us more than we need them and so on had not been made I think we would be a lot further down the road than we are now.

    We offered them a method - enshrining the Citizens rights issue in the final relationship treaty. That way, trade was tied inextricably to citizens rights - we couldn't alter the rights issue without the treaty falling (or being subject to the Supreme Court in the UK, which is very independent). Treaties cannot be amended by parliament, they are not 'UK Law'. But they are actionable in UK law.

    They didn't accept this. It might be a cultural misunderstanding of the way that the UK court system protects us against the state, or it might be because they just weren't ready to agree anything yet on the basis they thought they could get the ECJ into the picture. But the mechanism was offered, and was secure.

    We'll end up with something like that, if there is a final deal. The negotiations will not fall on citizens' rights.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    TonyE said:

    Rhubarb said:

    TonyE said:


    This might be an insight into the German mindset on Brexit
    http://globalbritain.co.uk/a-german-perspective-on-the-brexit-negotiations/

    That's a great read.
    "The Euro however is the time bomb that will likely blow up the European institutions in a single cataclysmic event. I am convinced it will do so during the next German government’s term in office."

    Whatever you're position that's absolutely terrifying.
    The problem for us is that being in or out of the EU will make no difference in that respect. Our neighbours imploding will only be detrimental to us.
    Predictions of imminent collapse of the EU or EZ are countless over the decades.

    Strangely both survive and prosper, indeed the EZ is growing quite strongly again.
    Quíte. The collapse of the EZ has been predicted almost weekly since it was formed - the best part of 20 years ago.
    The creation of the EZ caused needless suffering in Southern Europe, but that doesn't mean it will necessarily collapse.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    IanB2 said:


    It's mostly nonsense. The structure of Celtic languages is significantly different from Germanic ones, and insofar as there are similarities we are of course talking about Indo-European languages that all share a common root (which was significantly closer back then, given subsequent linguistic divergence). The dramatic scarcity of celtic inscriptions and Celtic place names in England (outside some border areas) - not much more than a few rivers - doesn't suggest we are simply talking about a handful of elite Saxons taking control of an indigenous Celtic population. Settlement patterns are very different also - simplistically, celts liked living on hilltops and saxons in river valleys and woodland clearings.

    Indeed it is quite possible that a Germanic language was being spoken in south east England before the Saxons arrived.

    Such nonsense that it has been an ongoing debate in academic linguistic circles and archaeology for the last 4 decades at least

    And your additional claims about settlement patterns are completely wrong. The evidence for elite takeover is there in settlements, in DNA evidence, in tooth enamel isotope analysis, in burials, and in place names. Almost every major river in England has a name derived from Brythonic not AS origins.

    Archaeologists have not believed the ' Celts lived on hilltops' rubbish since before the war.
    Do you have any favourite articles you'd recommend reading on this?
    One example of this is the excavations at West Heslerton in Yorkshire. Another would be the excavations at Wally Corner in Oxfordshire. In both cases these are early migration period cemeteries which, from their grave goods and burial orientations, had been assumed to be Anglo-Saxon, but which actually proved to have very few individuals who originated outside of the British Isles. I am working away at the moment so don't have access to my files but there is plenty of information and papers about Isotope analysis from these sites on the internet.
    Thank you that'll give me enough to google
    I Google Wally Corner and the results include an article about Boris Johnson
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548



    One characteristic if these cases is the bewilderment that the accused suffer. They cannot see what they have done is wrong.

    Carwyn is looking for someone to carry out an “independent review” of his actions.

    Obviously, Carwyn needs someone pretty unimaginative, who is willing to accept on trust what the Welsh Government tell him.

    And someone with an emollient manner, who can shut the Sergeant family and their pesky solicitors up, but do it nice and politely.

    And someone who can squash (former LibDem) Leighton Andrews, with his annoying claims of a culture of bullying by the Welsh Assembly Government. You can be a bit more heavy-handed here, as noone actually likes an ex-LibDem.

    I think you’ve got a good chance, if you fancy the gig.
    On the whole I think it best to look at the evidence dispassionately and interview the witnesses before arriving at a verdict, but with you it seems the verdict should come first.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172



    One characteristic if these cases is the bewilderment that the accused suffer. They cannot see what they have done is wrong.

    Carwyn is looking for someone to carry out an “independent review” of his actions.

    Obviously, Carwyn needs someone pretty unimaginative, who is willing to accept on trust what the Welsh Government tell him.

    And someone with an emollient manner, who can shut the Sergeant family and their pesky solicitors up, but do it nice and politely.

    And someone who can squash (former LibDem) Leighton Andrews, with his annoying claims of a culture of bullying by the Welsh Assembly Government. You can be a bit more heavy-handed here, as noone actually likes an ex-LibDem.

    I think you’ve got a good chance, if you fancy the gig.
    On the whole I think it best to look at the evidence dispassionately and interview the witnesses before arriving at a verdict, but with you it seems the verdict should come first.

    We can’t look at the evidence because the complainants are anonymous and the details of the complaints have not been released.

    All I have ever suggested is that the information should be placed in the public domain.

    Carwyn’s statement criticised journalists yesterday for misinformation, and then Carwyn promptly refused to take questions from journalists.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    The EU deal actually isn't that bad.

    £60Bn exit fee to avoid being part of a federal superstate.

    Cheap if anything.

    There you go!

    Compared to the alternative, £60 billion is chicken feed. Voters chose to the leave the EU and they did it on the basis of being told it would be simple and pain free. If the will of the people is to be respected these things have to be borne in mind, and we have to approach Brexit accordingly. Whatever form of words it takes, I am all for them.

    Am pretty comfortable with a one off payment even if large. But the one off aspect is pretty important.
    £1 billion for NI to keep the DUP happy is chickenfeed compared to the £60 billion protection money the EU are demanding.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    TonyE said:

    Rhubarb said:

    TonyE said:


    This might be an insight into the German mindset on Brexit
    http://globalbritain.co.uk/a-german-perspective-on-the-brexit-negotiations/

    That's a great read.
    "The Euro however is the time bomb that will likely blow up the European institutions in a single cataclysmic event. I am convinced it will do so during the next German government’s term in office."

    Whatever you're position that's absolutely terrifying.
    The problem for us is that being in or out of the EU will make no difference in that respect. Our neighbours imploding will only be detrimental to us.
    Predictions of imminent collapse of the EU or EZ are countless over the decades.

    Strangely both survive and prosper, indeed the EZ is growing quite strongly again.
    Quíte. The collapse of the EZ has been predicted almost weekly since it was formed - the best part of 20 years ago.
    Yes it has. But it has survived because the treaties have been 'bent' to continue to kick the can down the road. Like anything else, elastoplast solutions are never permanent.

    The question is " What will they do to resolve the situation permanently?". If that is not 'Debt consolidation' then eventually it will blow up in their faces. Germany doesn't want that (and the UK was not keen either, lest the whole EU be dragged into that solution and not just the EZ). But they will eventually face a choice - bail out permanently, or the mercantile project of German trade repatriating German Euros stops.
  • ' "Industrial production has risen for six consecutive months, a feat last achieved 23 years ago," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41939068

    Now is it a coicidence that manufacturing output didn't rise at all in the six years after George Osborne announced the 'March of the Makers' but has increased by 4% since he was sacked ?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/timeseries/k22a/diop
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The Flynn stuff be crazy.
  • ' "Industrial production has risen for six consecutive months, a feat last achieved 23 years ago," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41939068

    Now is it a coicidence that manufacturing output didn't rise at all in the six years after George Osborne announced the 'March of the Makers' but has increased by 4% since he was sacked ?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/timeseries/k22a/diop

    And the trade defict over the last 12 months has dropped to £32bn from the £44bn in the 12 months preeceeding that:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret

    Is there anyone who still supports the economic damage an overvalued currency brings ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    rcs1000 said:

    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    With EU agreement it is clear that anything is possible. Even taking the wording literally, they can extend the period indefinitely.

    Sure, of course, it is always true that anything is possible if both sides agree. However, in this particular case the agreement of 'both sides' might require the unanimous consent of the UK plus 27 other countries plus a few grandstanding parliaments, and maybe some referendums as well, depending on what exactly is to be agreed.

    In practice, I think this is pie-in-the-sky: we're leaving, on the 29th March 2019, for better or worse.
    Here is a view
    http://brexitcentral.com/meeting-michel-barnier-guy-verhofstadt-ive-concluded-no-deal-will-better-deal/
    It may well be Brexit biased

    I think it's becoming clear that the EU are taking a "Crush the Saboteurs" approach to the UK. The only deal will be the same as being in the EU but worse.

    I think that the country will survive (and indeed prosper) after the initial shock of hard Brexit, and the government will survive as long as the EU get the blame, which at the moment it appears they are.

    Leavers were adamant before the referendum vote that agreeing a deal would be a doddle. The fact that their expectations have been completely confounded doesn't seem to have given them any pause for thought.

    There was always a risk that the EU would act like this, but that only reinforces Leavers' views that we were right to Leave them.

    The cognitive dissonance on both sides is staggering.

    From Remainers:
    If we'd got a good deal easily: see, it shows how reasonable the EU are and that we should have stayed
    Or: see, it goes to show that staying in would have been better. it was always obvious that leaving would land us with a bad deal

    From Leavers:
    we said we're too important, and we'd get a good deal. shows we were right to leave
    or
    see how unreasonable they are. proof, as ever, that leaving was right
    Take your point, but I'm not sure that qualifies as cognitive dissonance - if anything quite the opposite.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    There's a new sandpit to play in.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    rcs1000 said:

    JRM looking very Prime Ministerial on Sky - you may not like him but he is very engaging

    I do like him.

    My concern is about whether he has the managerial temperament to take on the very highest office of state. Give him a ministry, and let's see how he does.

    Unfortunately, instead of giving Penny Morduant Defence (where she would have been eminently qualified), and JRM DfID, she promoted her mate to the former job, and then tried to keep the Leave/Remain, Man/Woman balance with the second.
    But think he's not particularly bright ?
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    TonyE said:

    calum said:
    Is anyone keeping a tally of headbanger Europhobe MPs coming out with these pronouncements? It can't be far from the point where Theresa May has lost her majority even if she can still count on DUP support.
    Bearing in mind that the Reste a liquider is so large, then I thin the real question is ' if we pay our share of it then which of the shared institutions and projects will the UK continue to benefit from?'

    Erasmus, SES, Gallileo, ECRIS, EACEA - there are many areas where continued co-operation comes with a price tag. Negotiate the cost on RAL, but negotiate the continued access at the same time - offsetting the costs of projects. They aren't trying to secure the money by using a common sense approach. Why not?
    Good point, the RAL seems to be the main sticking point. An unfunded wishlist of projects that might never actually be funded. Why not offer to pay our share of them but only when they are actually funded by the others. In reality most projects will never come to fruition as the EU27 budget is going to be in crisis once we leave. The next budget negotiation round will be a bloodbath.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    ' "Industrial production has risen for six consecutive months, a feat last achieved 23 years ago," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41939068

    Now is it a coicidence that manufacturing output didn't rise at all in the six years after George Osborne announced the 'March of the Makers' but has increased by 4% since he was sacked ?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/timeseries/k22a/diop

    And the trade defict over the last 12 months has dropped to £32bn from the £44bn in the 12 months preeceeding that:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret

    Is there anyone who still supports the economic damage an overvalued currency brings ?
    And the NIESR says the economy grew by 0.5% in the quarter to 31.10.17. Today's economic news was pretty good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,243
    edited November 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    calum said:

    HYUFD said:
    The boost Brexit will give not only to our European competitor financial centres let alone the US and Asian centres is going to have an interesting impact on this study in future years. The biggest boom area in the City at the moment is firms Brexit related hiring in compliance, risk, HR, IT and project management. The Brexit flight of people, HQs, banking assets, fund assets and securities business is going to be interesting to watch.
    The gap may close a little but London will still certainly be number 1 in Europe, Zurich its closest competitor is of course not in the EU or EEA now.
    Zurich is not the number two financial centre in Europe. While it's strong in private wealth management, it's weak in institutional fund management, corporate finance, investment research, sales & trading. Indeed, I doubt it's top five in any of those sectors.

    If you were to rank European financial centres by importance, you'd have London way out in front, followed by Frankfurt, then a gap before Paris, Dublin and Amsterdam all together.
    According to this report Zurich is the number 2 financial centre in Europe, Geneva is 3rd, Frankfurt 4th and Luxembourg 5th.
    http://www.cityam.com/224938/london-top-world
  • Sean_F said:

    ' "Industrial production has risen for six consecutive months, a feat last achieved 23 years ago," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41939068

    Now is it a coicidence that manufacturing output didn't rise at all in the six years after George Osborne announced the 'March of the Makers' but has increased by 4% since he was sacked ?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/timeseries/k22a/diop

    And the trade defict over the last 12 months has dropped to £32bn from the £44bn in the 12 months preeceeding that:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret

    Is there anyone who still supports the economic damage an overvalued currency brings ?
    And the NIESR says the economy grew by 0.5% in the quarter to 31.10.17. Today's economic news was pretty good.
    The problem area is construction.

    Which is something the government should be able to influence.

    Although Hammond and Javed do not seem to have the required dynamism.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Sean_F said:

    ' "Industrial production has risen for six consecutive months, a feat last achieved 23 years ago," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41939068

    Now is it a coicidence that manufacturing output didn't rise at all in the six years after George Osborne announced the 'March of the Makers' but has increased by 4% since he was sacked ?
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/timeseries/k22a/diop

    And the trade defict over the last 12 months has dropped to £32bn from the £44bn in the 12 months preeceeding that:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret

    Is there anyone who still supports the economic damage an overvalued currency brings ?
    And the NIESR says the economy grew by 0.5% in the quarter to 31.10.17. Today's economic news was pretty good.
    The problem area is construction.

    Which is something the government should be able to influence.

    Although Hammond and Javed do not seem to have the required dynamism.
    Construction output tends to get revised upwards.
  • IanB2 said:


    It's mostly nonsense. The structure of Celtic languages is significantly different from Germanic ones, and insofar as there are similarities we are of course talking about Indo-European languages that all share a common root (which was significantly closer back then, given subsequent linguistic divergence). The dramatic scarcity of celtic inscriptions and Celtic place names in England (outside some border areas) - not much more than a few rivers - doesn't suggest we are simply talking about a handful of elite Saxons taking control of an indigenous Celtic population. Settlement patterns are very different also - simplistically, celts liked living on hilltops and saxons in river valleys and woodland clearings.

    Indeed it is quite possible that a Germanic language was being spoken in south east England before the Saxons arrived.

    Such nonsense that it has been an ongoing debate in academic linguistic circles and archaeology for the last 4 decades at least

    And your additional claims about settlement patterns are completely wrong. The evidence for elite takeover is there in settlements, in DNA evidence, in tooth enamel isotope analysis, in burials, and in place names. Almost every major river in England has a name derived from Brythonic not AS origins.

    Archaeologists have not believed the ' Celts lived on hilltops' rubbish since before the war.
    Do you have any favourite articles you'd recommend reading on this?
    One example of this is the excavations at West Heslerton in Yorkshire. Another would be the excavations at Wally Corner in Oxfordshire. In both cases these are early migration period cemeteries which, from their grave goods and burial orientations, had been assumed to be Anglo-Saxon, but which actually proved to have very few individuals who originated outside of the British Isles. I am working away at the moment so don't have access to my files but there is plenty of information and papers about Isotope analysis from these sites on the internet.
    Thank you that'll give me enough to google
    There is tons more of interest from both sides of the argument. I will make some occasional posts (so as not to bore people too much) after I get home at the end of the month.
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