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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the 3rd successive month YouGov Brexit tracker has “wrong to leave” in lead

The chart shows the latest YouGov Brexit tracker in which the question is whether those polled think that in insight it was wrong or right for Britain to have voted to leave EU.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

TheScreamingEagles

I wonder what this polling will look like in a year though.

Pulpstar

"No doubt many remainers take the view that the vote to Leave was wrong but believe that the decision has been taken and that we should proceed."

Yes, I'm certainly of this opinion for one.

HYUFD

Yougov had Remain ahead by 2% before the EU referendum when Leave won by 4% so a 4% lead for 'wrong to leave' means nothing.

A close to 10% lead maybe.

IanB2

Fourth!

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

"No doubt many remainers take the view that the vote to Leave was wrong but believe that the decision has been taken and that we should proceed."

Yes, I'm certainly of this opinion for one.

Me too.

AlastairMeeks

Pulpstar said:

"No doubt many remainers take the view that the vote to Leave was wrong but believe that the decision has been taken and that we should proceed."

Yes, I'm certainly of this opinion for one.

Yes, for now. The public has the right to change its mind, but so far it has not done so decisively.

IanB2

Slowly but steadily the case for a second vote builds.

FF43

There is a widening gap between those that think Brexit is bad and those that think the implementation is bad. That seems to me to be a distinction without a difference. At some point will those that now think Brexit is good and the implementation bad come into line?

Richard_Nabavi

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

"No doubt many remainers take the view that the vote to Leave was wrong but believe that the decision has been taken and that we should proceed."

Yes, I'm certainly of this opinion for one.

Yes, for now. The public has the right to change its mind, but so far it has not done so decisively.

Unfortunately, as with many things in life, the electorate changing its mind after such a drastic decision wouldn't take us back to the status quo ante.

Pulpstar

IanB2 said:

Slowly but steadily the case for a second vote builds.

Hmm I think this is the wrong question to determine that.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

"No doubt many remainers take the view that the vote to Leave was wrong but believe that the decision has been taken and that we should proceed."

Yes, I'm certainly of this opinion for one.

Yes, for now. The public has the right to change its mind, but so far it has not done so decisively.

Unfortunately, as with many things in life, the electorate changing its mind after such a drastic decision wouldn't take us back to the status quo ante.

Unfortunately not. Any revised proposition to be put to the public would need to be consistent with reality in a way that the original Leave proposition was not.

Nigelb

Brazilian GP, FP1 - Merc looking quick straight out of the box:
1. Mercedes – 1’09.202
2. Ferrari – 1’09.744 +0.54
3. Red Bull – 1’09.750 +0.55

Tykejohnno

IanB2 said:

Slowly but steadily the case for a second vote builds.

40 to 50 years maybe,we leavers had to wait.

TheScreamingEagles

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Jonathan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

In short, Dave screwed up.

Beverley_C

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what this polling will look like in a year though.

Looking at the graph the trend started in January and seems to be a fairly linear trend. Based on the old adage that "The trend is your friend" and "The trend often lasts longer than you expect" then it would seem that we should be expecting a 5 or 6 margin by the New Year.

Essexit

IIRC about 10-12% of the responses on these are DKs. I wonder if some of this is down to Leavers answering that way, on the grounds that we can't be sure yet. That's not to say they regret the decision.

rkrkrk

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

If we get to the point where polls consistently show 70% of voters want to call the whole thing off - then will Remainer MPs really vote to go ahead without another referendum?

I doubt it.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Essexit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

You'd do well to get more than 40% of the vote.

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

david_herdson

NickPalmer said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On the substantive point, it is simply not the case that the existence of a legal border between the EU and the UK makes it necessary to have a physical border. We can do whatever we like. If we decide not to have routine physical checks, but instead to rely on self-certifying declarations, that's absolutely fine. Similarly for the EU side. There's no universal law of nature operating here.

Yes, that's what the Swiss used to do. But the Irish border would probably become a major smuggling route into the EU and they can't really risk it.

There are eight ferries a week from Ireland to mainland Europe. How much smuggling can there be? Presumably those importing into the UK will still be paying fees there - so the net import tariffs avoided could be relatively small - and those seeking to sell on the continent will need some sort of import proof (which will be for the wrong country in their case)?

RochdalePioneers

At a Grocery Aid lunch at the Hilton Park Lane. Gag from John Inverdale who is hosting - "also in our silent auction is a special prize donated by the Prime Minister Theresa May, who has kindly donated two seats on the cabinet, including Foreign Secretary"

FF43

Beverley_C said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what this polling will look like in a year though.

Looking at the graph the trend started in January and seems to be a fairly linear trend. Based on the old adage that "The trend is your friend" and "The trend often lasts longer than you expect" then it would seem that we should be expecting a 5 or 6 margin by the New Year.

There is a much higher percentage of people who think Brexit is not going well. Those are the figures that should worry serious Brexiteers (and some Remainers actually). You can only maintain a "good idea but I expected better" distinction for a while.

calum

IanB2 said:

Slowly but steadily the case for a second vote builds.

and that's before the real pain of Brexit starts to kick in

CarlottaVance

Well, quite....

https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/928970425228582912?s=17

Beverley_C

FF43 said:

Beverley_C said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what this polling will look like in a year though.

Looking at the graph the trend started in January and seems to be a fairly linear trend. Based on the old adage that "The trend is your friend" and "The trend often lasts longer than you expect" then it would seem that we should be expecting a 5 or 6 margin by the New Year.

There is a much higher percentage of people who think Brexit is not going well. Those are the figures that should worry serious Brexiteers (and some Remainers actually). You can only maintain a "good idea but I expected better" distinction for a while.

It is a very small data set, but when I fed it into a spreadsheet for analysis it became apparent that the trend was non-linear and increasing in gradient. "Event, dear boy, events!" will always have an impact and in such a small data set the error for margin is large, but a 7 point lead by the end of December and a 12 point lead by end January are consistent with the trend.

I find it hard to believe it could accelerate that much

HYUFD

FF43 said:

Beverley_C said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what this polling will look like in a year though.

Looking at the graph the trend started in January and seems to be a fairly linear trend. Based on the old adage that "The trend is your friend" and "The trend often lasts longer than you expect" then it would seem that we should be expecting a 5 or 6 margin by the New Year.

There is a much higher percentage of people who think Brexit is not going well. Those are the figures that should worry serious Brexiteers (and some Remainers actually). You can only maintain a "good idea but I expected better" distinction for a while.

Depends what you mean by 'going well.' Some Brexiteers think the fact we may have to pay a bill to the EU and accept free movement and a transition period means they are 'not going well' as the government is making too many concessions.

david_herdson

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

FF43 said:

I have lost track.

1. Doesn't the deal including a possible extension of A50 have to be ratified by Parliament anyway? They would make the date change then.

2. Apparently any form of transition other than an A50 extension is legally problematic for the EU, and by implication the UK too.

1. No, the extension is separate from the deal. I think you're thinking of a transitional period. An extension to the A50 period could be requested by the government without the need for parliament's involvement (though it would be politic to do so anyway). It's the deal itself resulting from the A50 negotiations that the government's promised parliament a vote on - though this might just be the first of several such deals, with others, which finalise the exit arrangement, following on during the exit transition.

2. The EU has all sorts of associate nation agreements. The only difficulty would be if the UK retained some formal powers within the EU, which it surely wouldn't concede anyway.

1. I am still confused. The EU negotiating guidelines allow for "an indication of an overall understanding on the framework for the future relationship" and a possible time-limited transitional arrangement. Stripping out the ridiculously vague language, no permanent trading arrangement will be agreed as part of the Article 50 talks. There will simply be a commitment to have one. But there may a transition arrangement. To go back to my question, is Parliament voting on the totality of the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement? If it is, it will almost certainly include a transition arrangement and that is likely to be in the form of an Article 50 extension because that it is the simplest and legally kosher way of doing it.

2. Those association agreements are much shallower than our EU relationship and they take years to negotiate and ratify. Treaty changes require a two year ratification cycle once they have been agreed

1. Parliament will be voting on the A50 withdrawal agreement, which should - if the talks go sensibly - include both a framework for negotiating the FTA and a transitional phase whereby the UK winds down its EU commitments in an orderly way. But a transitional phase is *not* the same as an A50 extension. An extension keeps the UK within the legal entity of the EU; a transitional phase operates with the UK outside of the EU but retaining many of the benefits and duties that membership brings.

2. That's true but the legal framework is already in place. There's no need for a full ratification as the existing EU treaties - A50 specifically - already provide the mechanism and legal basis. Also, Britain is seeking to exit rather than join so (a) it's a short-term deal, so of less lasting import, and (b) Britain starts off already in alignment with the EU.

NickPalmer

I think this is going to fluctuate for a while. Some sort of December agreement is clearly shaping up, and when that's announced people will think oh, good, it's going all right after all. Then there will be a crisis sometime next year, then another interim deal, etc etc. It will only be significant when it gradually dawns on people that it's going to work out OK, or not.

rural_voter

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

Jonathan

What could possibly be causing this change in opinion? It simply beggars belief. Everything is going so terribly, terribly well.

HYUFD

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

TheScreamingEagles

Jonathan said:

What could possibly be causing this change in opinion? It simply beggars belief. Everything is going so terribly, terribly well.

There’s a correlation between this and Mrs May’s ratings.

But correlation doesn’t imply causation.

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

We speak Mandarin?

SquareRoot

Jonathan said:

What could possibly be causing this change in opinion? It simply beggars belief. Everything is going so terribly, terribly well.

Indeed, there isn't a Labour Govt. We should all be thankful for that.

Beverley_C

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

... and some of the world's biggest debt bubble and a very divided population and a govt that appears to be in chaos.

TheWhiteRabbit

Beverley_C said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

... and some of the world's biggest debt bubble and a very divided population and a govt that appears to be in chaos.

Those other countries are hardly without their downsides.

I mean, Iceland's financial crash anyone??!

HYUFD

Beverley_C said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

... and some of the world's biggest debt bubble and a very divided population and a govt that appears to be in chaos.

So you do not deny anything I said then, Merkel would kill for a 40% rating at the moment and Italy and Greece etc would kill for the UK's debt position rather than their is.

SouthamObserver

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

We have plenty, but much of it is tied into our EU membership and will be significantly harmed when we leave. Sadly, it seems the one thing the government is agreed on is that internal Tory politics dictate we cannot have a relationship with the EU along the lines enjoyed by any of Iceland, Norway, Switzerland or Liechtenstein.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

We speak Mandarin?

That is not the most widely spoken language, barely anyone speaks Mandarin outside of China, it simply has the most who speak it as their first language.

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

In my experience American English has largely superseded British English. Even in Hong Kong these days there is an American twang to the way the locals speak our greatest gift to the world.

rkrkrk

NickPalmer said:

I think this is going to fluctuate for a while. Some sort of December agreement is clearly shaping up, and when that's announced people will think oh, good, it's going all right after all. Then there will be a crisis sometime next year, then another interim deal, etc etc. It will only be significant when it gradually dawns on people that it's going to work out OK, or not.

Yes - it was always going to look dicey at some point - even if things were going very well.
That said - I do have some doubts about whether things will be resolved in December.

Just have to wait and see.

I wonder how late businesses can really wait without knowing what will happen?
I suspect it's a bit later than they are letting on.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

We have plenty, but much of it is tied into our EU membership and will be significantly harmed when we leave. Sadly, it seems the one thing the government is agreed on is that internal Tory politics dictate we cannot have a relationship with the EU along the lines enjoyed by any of Iceland, Norway, Switzerland or Liechtenstein.

We will have a relationship with the EU along the lines enjoyed by Canada, what a disaster!

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

We speak Mandarin?

That is not the most widely spoken language, barely anyone speaks Mandarin outside of China, it simply has the most who speak it as their first language.

You said of the UK ' is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.'

Clearly it isn't.

Essexit

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

An astute point. Of the 32 countries on Earth, the 4 that eke out an existence outside Juncker's Paradise do so only due to natural resource advantages or tax haven status.

FF43

david_herdson said:

FF43 said:

ng guidelines allow for "an indication of an overall understanding on the framework for the future relationship" and a possible time-limited transitional arrangement. Stripping out the ridiculously vague language, no permanent trading arrangement will be agreed as part of the Article 50 talks. There will simply be a commitment to have one. But there may a transition arrangement. To go back to my question, is Parliament voting on the totality of the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement? If it is, it will almost certainly include a transition arrangement and that is likely to be in the form of an Article 50 extension because that it is the simplest and legally kosher way of doing it.

2. Those association agreements are much shallower than our EU relationship and they take years to negotiate and ratify. Treaty changes require a two year ratification cycle once they have been agreed

1. Parliament will be voting on the A50 withdrawal agreement, which should - if the talks go sensibly - include both a framework for negotiating the FTA and a transitional phase whereby the UK winds down its EU commitments in an orderly way. But a transitional phase is *not* the same as an A50 extension. An extension keeps the UK within the legal entity of the EU; a transitional phase operates with the UK outside of the EU but retaining many of the benefits and duties that membership brings.

2. That's true but the legal framework is already in place. There's no need for a full ratification as the existing EU treaties - A50 specifically - already provide the mechanism and legal basis. Also, Britain is seeking to exit rather than join so (a) it's a short-term deal, so of less lasting import, and (b) Britain starts off already in alignment with the EU.

Thanks for the explanation. It comes down the form of any transition arrangement. Would we really refuse an Article 50 extension if that was the only form offered to us? I can't see we would. The extension/transition is the only thing that critically matters to us from the A50 talks.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

In my experience American English has largely superseded British English. Even in Hong Kong these days there is an American twang to the way the locals speak our greatest gift to the world.

American English is still English, the words are almost exactly the same just spoken in a slightly different accent but you could say the same about Geordie and London English.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

We speak Mandarin?

That is not the most widely spoken language, barely anyone speaks Mandarin outside of China, it simply has the most who speak it as their first language.

You said of the UK ' is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.'

Clearly it isn't.

Yes it is as more people speak English than speak Mandarin once you include second and third languages.

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

We have plenty, but much of it is tied into our EU membership and will be significantly harmed when we leave. Sadly, it seems the one thing the government is agreed on is that internal Tory politics dictate we cannot have a relationship with the EU along the lines enjoyed by any of Iceland, Norway, Switzerland or Liechtenstein.

We will have a relationship with the EU along the lines enjoyed by Canada, what a disaster!

For financial services companies that sell into the European market, yes it will be very bad indeed. Luckily they are not that important to the UK. Not great news for farmers either, but who cares about them?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/928980496180060160

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

In my experience American English has largely superseded British English. Even in Hong Kong these days there is an American twang to the way the locals speak our greatest gift to the world.

American English is still English, the words are almost exactly the same just spoken in a slightly different accent but you could say the same about Geordie and London English.

American English has a standardised form - unlike Geordie or London English. And it is the global language now. Our good fortune is that we can use it better than most others.

Beverley_C

Essexit said:

An astute point. Of the 32 countries on Earth.....

What planet are YOU on? The last time I checked there were approx 200 countries on Earth

FF43

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Beverley_C said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what this polling will look like in a year though.

Looking at the graph the trend started in January and seems to be a fairly linear trend. Based on the old adage that "The trend is your friend" and "The trend often lasts longer than you expect" then it would seem that we should be expecting a 5 or 6 margin by the New Year.

There is a much higher percentage of people who think Brexit is not going well. Those are the figures that should worry serious Brexiteers (and some Remainers actually). You can only maintain a "good idea but I expected better" distinction for a while.

Depends what you mean by 'going well.' Some Brexiteers think the fact we may have to pay a bill to the EU and accept free movement and a transition period means they are 'not going well' as the government is making too many concessions.

Good point. Also 75% of Leavers think that Brexit will have no economic consequences at all of any king and 95% think there will be no permanent damage. (Actually it is already having an effect but they haven't noticed it - a worldwide upswing in the economy helps when even sinking boats rise with the tide). Question is whether they will ever notice it.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/925648309880066053

DavidL

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/928980496180060160

Not exactly Matt, is it? Why do they bother?

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

We have plenty, but much of it is tied into our EU membership and will be significantly harmed when we leave. Sadly, it seems the one thing the government is agreed on is that internal Tory politics dictate we cannot have a relationship with the EU along the lines enjoyed by any of Iceland, Norway, Switzerland or Liechtenstein.

We will have a relationship with the EU along the lines enjoyed by Canada, what a disaster!

For financial services companies that sell into the European market, yes it will be very bad indeed. Luckily they are not that important to the UK. Not great news for farmers either, but who cares about them?

Even on the Bank of England's worst forecasts for Brexit and no deal at all the City of London would still remain the largest financial centre in Europe and of course a Canada deal respects the Leave vote and ensures free movement ends. Given rising prices of EU meat, tariffs may even help farmers in the UK market as more buy British

Beverley_C

TheScreamingEagles said:

You said of the UK ' is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.'

Clearly it isn't.

Actually, English is the most widely spoken in that it is used in many, many places, often as a second or trade lnaguage

Mandarin has the most speakers of any language but it is not widespread geographically.

Essexit

Beverley_C said:

Essexit said:

An astute point. Of the 32 countries on Earth.....

What planet are YOU on? The last time I checked there were approx 200 countries on Earth

There are another 168 countries - outside the EU? How do they cope?

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

In my experience American English has largely superseded British English. Even in Hong Kong these days there is an American twang to the way the locals speak our greatest gift to the world.

American English is still English, the words are almost exactly the same just spoken in a slightly different accent but you could say the same about Geordie and London English.

American English has a standardised form - unlike Geordie or London English. And it is the global language now. Our good fortune is that we can use it better than most others.

So it is still English then and still originated over here.

HYUFD

Beverley_C said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

You said of the UK ' is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.'

Clearly it isn't.

Actually, English is the most widely spoken in that it is used in many, many places, often as a second or trade lnaguage

Mandarin has the most speakers of any language but it is not widespread geographically.

Thankyou

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

In my experience American English has largely superseded British English. Even in Hong Kong these days there is an American twang to the way the locals speak our greatest gift to the world.

American English is still English, the words are almost exactly the same just spoken in a slightly different accent but you could say the same about Geordie and London English.

American English has a standardised form - unlike Geordie or London English. And it is the global language now. Our good fortune is that we can use it better than most others.

So it is still English then and still originated over here.

No, it originated in northern Germany and Friesland.

HYUFD

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Beverley_C said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what this polling will look like in a year though.

Looking at the graph the trend started in January and seems to be a fairly linear trend. Based on the old adage that "The trend is your friend" and "The trend often lasts longer than you expect" then it would seem that we should be expecting a 5 or 6 margin by the New Year.

There is a much higher percentage of people who think Brexit is not going well. Those are the figures that should worry serious Brexiteers (and some Remainers actually). You can only maintain a "good idea but I expected better" distinction for a while.

Depends what you mean by 'going well.' Some Brexiteers think the fact we may have to pay a bill to the EU and accept free movement and a transition period means they are 'not going well' as the government is making too many concessions.

Good point. Also 75% of Leavers think that Brexit will have no economic consequences at all of any king and 95% think there will be no permanent damage. (Actually it is already having an effect but they haven't noticed it - a worldwide upswing in the economy helps when even sinking boats rise with the tide). Question is whether they will ever notice it.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/925648309880066053

Given a substantial proportion are pensioners and owner occupiers probably not.

Beverley_C

HYUFD said:

So you do not deny anything I said then, Merkel would kill for a 40% rating at the moment and Italy and Greece etc would kill for the UK's debt position rather than their is.

I was not denying what you said, merely dealing with your talent for lightly glossing over anything that might sully your vision of the sunny uplands of Tory Central.

TheScreamingEagles

Beverley_C said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

You said of the UK ' is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.'

Clearly it isn't.

Actually, English is the most widely spoken in that it is used in many, many places, often as a second or trade lnaguage

Mandarin has the most speakers of any language but it is not widespread geographically.

My copy of Ethnologue says otherwise.

rpjs

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

In my experience American English has largely superseded British English. Even in Hong Kong these days there is an American twang to the way the locals speak our greatest gift to the world.

American English is still English, the words are almost exactly the same just spoken in a slightly different accent but you could say the same about Geordie and London English.

Up to a point Lord Copper. There are a lot of differences in vocabulary although that is lessening as British English adopts American words (e.g. "airplane" is driving "aeroplane" out of British usage) and even vice versa to a lesser extent ("cheers" for "thanks" is becoming commonplace at least in NYC and its environs). There are arguably different grammatical features too: American English has never met a noun it didn't fancy turning into a verb.

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

We have plenty, but much of it is tied into our EU membership and will be significantly harmed when we leave. Sadly, it seems the one thing the government is agreed on is that internal Tory politics dictate we cannot have a relationship with the EU along the lines enjoyed by any of Iceland, Norway, Switzerland or Liechtenstein.

We will have a relationship with the EU along the lines enjoyed by Canada, what a disaster!

For financial services companies that sell into the European market, yes it will be very bad indeed. Luckily they are not that important to the UK. Not great news for farmers either, but who cares about them?

Even on the Bank of England's worst forecasts for Brexit and no deal at all the City of London would still remain the largest financial centre in Europe and of course a Canada deal respects the Leave vote and ensures free movement ends. Given rising prices of EU meat, tariffs may even help farmers in the UK market as more buy British

The City remaining the largest financial centre in Europe is not incompatible with it losing a large amount of business to many other centres and, more important, with it generating a lot less taxable income for the UK.

Beverley_C

Essexit said:

Beverley_C said:

Essexit said:

An astute point. Of the 32 countries on Earth.....

What planet are YOU on? The last time I checked there were approx 200 countries on Earth

There are another 168 countries - outside the EU? How do they cope?

Mostly badly. Some very badly.

DavidL

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41939068
"Production rose by 0.7% compared with the month before, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, boosted by machinery and equipment output.

Separate data showed the UK's trade deficit in goods and services narrowed by more than expected in September.

However, construction output fell by 1.6% in the month, the ONS said."

The bizarre reporting of construction continues. It falls every month and yet increases every year. A reduction in the trade deficit is welcome but there is a very long way to go.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

In my experience American English has largely superseded British English. Even in Hong Kong these days there is an American twang to the way the locals speak our greatest gift to the world.

American English is still English, the words are almost exactly the same just spoken in a slightly different accent but you could say the same about Geordie and London English.

American English has a standardised form - unlike Geordie or London English. And it is the global language now. Our good fortune is that we can use it better than most others.

So it is still English then and still originated over here.

No, it originated in northern Germany and Friesland.

It originated from a whole host of places, those 2 and Normandy but so did every modern language but in its current form it originated in England.

rpjs

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

Iceland also has very cheap electricity, great for aluminium smelting.

SouthamObserver

Essexit said:

Beverley_C said:

Essexit said:

An astute point. Of the 32 countries on Earth.....

What planet are YOU on? The last time I checked there were approx 200 countries on Earth

There are another 168 countries - outside the EU? How do they cope?

Not one of them is currently seeking to remove itself from its largest market and so is not in the process of putting up barriers where none previously existed.

TheScreamingEagles

rpjs said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

Iceland also has very cheap electricity, great for aluminium smelting.

Iceland also has a very decent international football team.

Beverley_C

TheScreamingEagles said:

Beverley_C said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

You said of the UK ' is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.'

Clearly it isn't.

Actually, English is the most widely spoken in that it is used in many, many places, often as a second or trade lnaguage

Mandarin has the most speakers of any language but it is not widespread geographically.

My copy of Ethnologue says otherwise.

Ok

I am not really that bothered.

HYUFD

rpjs said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

In my experience American English has largely superseded British English. Even in Hong Kong these days there is an American twang to the way the locals speak our greatest gift to the world.

American English is still English, the words are almost exactly the same just spoken in a slightly different accent but you could say the same about Geordie and London English.

Up to a point Lord Copper. There are a lot of differences in vocabulary although that is lessening as British English adopts American words (e.g. "airplane" is driving "aeroplane" out of British usage) and even vice versa to a lesser extent ("cheers" for "thanks" is becoming commonplace at least in NYC and its environs). There are arguably different grammatical features too: American English has never met a noun it didn't fancy turning into a verb.

All pretty negligible, you do not need to take a dictionary or translator to go to the USA.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

We have plenty, but much of it is tied into our EU membership and will be significantly harmed when we leave. Sadly, it seems the one thing the government is agreed on is that internal Tory politics dictate we cannot have a relationship with the EU along the lines enjoyed by any of Iceland, Norway, Switzerland or Liechtenstein.

We will have a relationship with the EU along the lines enjoyed by Canada, what a disaster!

For financial services companies that sell into the European market, yes it will be very bad indeed. Luckily they are not that important to the UK. Not great news for farmers either, but who cares about them?

Even on the Bank of England's worst forecasts for Brexit and no deal at all the City

The City remaining the largest financial centre in Europe is not incompatible with it losing a large amount of business to many other centres and, more important, with it generating a lot less taxable income for the UK.

Yet it will still remain the largest financial centre in Europe and crucially we will replace free movement with a points system as Leave voters voted to do.

FF43

HYUFD said:

Even on the Bank of England's worst forecasts for Brexit and no deal at all the City of London would still remain the largest financial centre in Europe and of course a Canada deal respects the Leave vote and ensures free movement ends. Given rising prices of EU meat, tariffs may even help farmers in the UK market as more buy British

Farmers would be subject to tariff quotas effectively limiting the amount they can sell to the EU. We would do our own trade deals with third countries, which will open our markets to foreign produce. Farmers face a the double whammy of being shut out of their biggest export market by far, while having to compete with a flood of cheap imports in their home market.

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The the world.

In gift to the world.

American English is still English, the words are almost exactly the same just spoken in a slightly different accent but you could say the same about Geordie and London English.

American English has a standardised form - unlike Geordie or London English. And it is the global language now. Our good fortune is that we can use it better than most others.

So it is still English then and still originated over here.

No, it originated in northern Germany and Friesland.

It originated from a whole host of places, those 2 and Normandy but so did every modern language but in its current form it originated in England.

And now its centre is the US. As I say, our good fortune is that we can speak it and understand it better than most - although it does mean we spend far less time learning other languages, which is a shame and, quite possibly, an active disadvantage.

FF43

DavidL said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41939068
"Production rose by 0.7% compared with the month before, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, boosted by machinery and equipment output.

Separate data showed the UK's trade deficit in goods and services narrowed by more than expected in September.

However, construction output fell by 1.6% in the month, the ONS said."

The bizarre reporting of construction continues. It falls every month and yet increases every year. A reduction in the trade deficit is welcome but there is a very long way to go.

Your bet with RCS of 1.5% or more GDP growth is looking good.

HYUFD

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Even on the Bank of England's worst forecasts for Brexit and no deal at all the City of London would still remain the largest financial centre in Europe and of course a Canada deal respects the Leave vote and ensures free movement ends. Given rising prices of EU meat, tariffs may even help farmers in the UK market as more buy British

Farmers would be subject to tariff quotas effectively limiting the amount they can sell to the EU. We would do our own trade deals with third countries, which will open our markets to foreign produce. Farmers face a the double whammy of being shut out of their biggest export market by far, while having to compete with a flood of cheap imports in their home market.

More people would switch from EU to British meat in the UK and any non EU meat will still face tariffs to the domestic market unlike UK meat even if FTAs are agreed with the rest of the world (which will take years to negotiate anyway just like an EU FTA)

philiph

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Even on the Bank of England's worst forecasts for Brexit and no deal at all the City of London would still remain the largest financial centre in Europe and of course a Canada deal respects the Leave vote and ensures free movement ends. Given rising prices of EU meat, tariffs may even help farmers in the UK market as more buy British

Farmers would be subject to tariff quotas effectively limiting the amount they can sell to the EU. We would do our own trade deals with third countries, which will open our markets to foreign produce. Farmers face a the double whammy of being shut out of their biggest export market by far, while having to compete with a flood of cheap imports in their home market.

As net importers of food and feed there is an oddity about all this somewhere. Farmers are very good at survival, I have a sneaking suspicion they will adapt and survive, just like most business.

Tissue_Price

Putting 11pm 29/03/19 into law makes this market a much better "will Brexit happen?" indicator:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060

Essexit

Beverley_C said:

Essexit said:

Beverley_C said:

Essexit said:

An astute point. Of the 32 countries on Earth.....

What planet are YOU on? The last time I checked there were approx 200 countries on Earth

There are another 168 countries - outside the EU? How do they cope?

Mostly badly. Some very badly.

*Sarcastic mode over* True, but the ones doing badly or very badly are not the ones comparable to Britain.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a has ... ??

The the world.

In gift to the world.

American English is still English, the words are almost exactly the same just spoken in a slightly different accent but you could say the same about Geordie and London English.

American English has a standardised form - unlike Geordie or London English. And it is the global language now. Our good fortune is that we can use it better than most others.

So it is still English then and still originated over here.

No, it originated in northern Germany and Friesland.

It originated from a whole host of places, those 2 and Normandy but so did every modern language but in its current form it originated in England.

And now its centre is the US. As I say, our good fortune is that we can speak it and understand it better than most - although it does mean we spend far less time learning other languages, which is a shame and, quite possibly, an active disadvantage.

I don't disagree on learning languages but it is an advantage for us nonetheless.

DavidL

The BBC article I linked to says that industrial production has now increased for 6 consecutive months and that this is the first time in 23 years that this has happened. Pleasing though it is that this has happed right now I find that deeply depressing. Our lack of focus on manufacturing is a deep flaw in our economic management and has been for a very long time.

First time since 1994? It is really shameful.

Richard_Tyndall

SouthamObserver said:

No, it originated in northern Germany and Friesland.

No it didn't. One might just as easily say it originated in Norway or Normandy. In fact it originated in England. English is a hybrid language and unusual in that it uses an Anglo-French vocabulary but a Brythonic grammar system which makes it far more adaptable than other Indo-European languages.

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

We Liechtenstein.

We will have a relationship with the EU along the lines enjoyed by Canada, what a disaster!

For financial services companies that sell into the European market, yes it will be very bad indeed. Luckily they are not that important to the UK. Not great news for farmers either, but who cares about them?

Even on the Bank of England's worst forecasts for Brexit and no deal at all the City

The UK.

Yet it will still remain the largest financial centre in Europe and crucially we will replace free movement with a points system as Leave voters voted to do.

I don't remember a points system being on the referendum ballot paper. I wonder when it will be introduced and how effective it will be in cutting immigration.

Whether the City is the biggest financial centre in Europe is neither here nor there. What matters is the contribution it makes to the UK's economy. If high paid jobs go elsewhere in Europe and services are relocated so as to keep them inside the single market, the tax take we get from the City will fall.

TheScreamingEagles

Beverley_C said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Beverley_C said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

You said of the UK ' is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.'

Clearly it isn't.

Actually, English is the most widely spoken in that it is used in many, many places, often as a second or trade lnaguage

Mandarin has the most speakers of any language but it is not widespread geographically.

My copy of Ethnologue says otherwise.

Ok

I am not really that bothered.

I love speaking foreign languages, and I wanted to add to the list last summer, and the short list was between Spanish, Italian, and Chinese.

And it quite clearly said Mandarin was the world's most widely spoken language.

Nigelb

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

Surplus wind in Scotland at this time of the year.

Richard_Nabavi

Tissue_Price said:

Putting 11pm 29/03/19 into law makes this market a much better "will Brexit happen?" indicator:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060

Thanks for the heads up. I just took £250 at evens - mental odds! Should be about 1.1

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

rpjs said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

In my experience American English has largely superseded British English. Even in Hong Kong these days there is an American twang to the way the locals speak our greatest gift to the world.

American English is still English, the words are almost exactly the same just spoken in a slightly different accent but you could say the same about Geordie and London English.

Up into a verb.

All pretty negligible, you do not need to take a dictionary or translator to go to the USA.

You will be surprised how many places in the US there are where an English accent is incomprehensible. Many's the time outside the major cities when people simply have not been able to understand even my very light North London accent.

FF43

philiph said:

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Even on the Bank of England's worst forecasts for Brexit and no deal at all the City of London would still remain the largest financial centre in Europe and of course a Canada deal respects the Leave vote and ensures free movement ends. Given rising prices of EU meat, tariffs may even help farmers in the UK market as more buy British

Farmers would be subject to tariff quotas effectively limiting the amount they can sell to the EU. We would do our own trade deals with third countries, which will open our markets to foreign produce. Farmers face a the double whammy of being shut out of their biggest export market by far, while having to compete with a flood of cheap imports in their home market.

As net importers of food and feed there is an oddity about all this somewhere. Farmers are very good at survival, I have a sneaking suspicion they will adapt and survive, just like most business.

The rich farmlands of Lincolnshire will continue to be farmed. They are not going to return to scrub. The probable consequences of Brexit are widespread bankruptcy amongst existing farmers, a fall in land values, the consolidation of farming into much larger farms and the elimination of marginal farms, particularly in the uplands of the north of England, Scotland and Wales.

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

Putting 11pm 29/03/19 into law makes this market a much better "will Brexit happen?" indicator:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060

Ta

HYUFD

FF43 said:

philiph said:

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Even on the Bank of England's worst forecasts for Brexit and no deal at all the City of London would still remain the largest financial centre in Europe and of course a Canada deal respects the Leave vote and ensures free movement ends. Given rising prices of EU meat, tariffs may even help farmers in the UK market as more buy British

Farmers would be subject to tariff quotas effectively limiting the amount they can sell to the EU. We would do our own trade deals with third countries, which will open our markets to foreign produce. Farmers face a the double whammy of being shut out of their biggest export market by far, while having to compete with a flood of cheap imports in their home market.

As net importers of food and feed there is an oddity about all this somewhere. Farmers are very good at survival, I have a sneaking suspicion they will adapt and survive, just like most business.

The rich farmlands of Lincolnshire will continue to be farmed. They are not going to return to scrub. The probable consequences of Brexit are widespread bankruptcy amongst existing farmers, a fall in land values, the consolidation of farming into much larger farms and the elimination of marginal farms, particularly in the uplands of the north of England, Scotland and Wales.

Not if they sell more in southern English and London supermarkets

Tissue_Price

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

Putting 11pm 29/03/19 into law makes this market a much better "will Brexit happen?" indicator:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060

Thanks for the heads up. I just took £250 at evens - mental odds! Should be about 1.1

I think 1.1 would be a bit skinny but I've been backing Yes too. Betfair's rules are a tangled mess but the bold bit is key.

For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. Examples of when this might occur include, but are not limited, to: the date specified in a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU; the end of the two year negotiating period (29/03/2019) as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (or any extension to this time period); or the date of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. If more than one of these events were to occur, this market will be settled on the first of these events to occur. In the case of the two year time period in Article 50 being extended, via a unanimous vote by all EU Member States, we will settle this market on the extended date.

justin124

The latest Yougov poll giving Labour a 3% lead implies a swing from Con to Lab of 2.7% since June when the Tories led by 2.4%. On the basis of a universal swing that would result in 35 Labour gains from the Tories.In addition, Labour could reasonably expect circa 20 gains at the expense of the SNP and Arfon from Plaid - enough to put them just short of 320 seats.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

rpjs said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

rural_voter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Intriguing but doesn't matter even if 90% think it is wrong, Brexit will happen.

"It's an effing crazy idea, but we should do it anyway" ?

That's democracy, plus with the violence threatened by Farage and other Leavers, not honouring the Brexit result will result in blood on the streets, no PM will want to take a bullet from a Leaver.

Let us say there's another referendum and Remain wins, Leavers will argue for another referendum.

Much better to Leave and then argue to Rejoin after the country experiences what being outside of the EU means.

Yes Switzerland and Norway are poverty stricken hell holes outside the EU aren't they

Did I say that? Did I?

Stop inventing straw men.

Quite. Look at the four countries outside the EU.

1 Norway has $750 billion in the bank from investing some of its oil revenue. For 5 million people.
2 Switzerland looks after half the world's money in return for a few S.Fr. For 8-9 milion people.
3 Liechtenstein is a much smaller version of Switzerland, except for having a monarch.
4 Iceland is surrounded by fish a.k.a. the North Atlantic and has almost free geothermal heating. For 300,000 people.

The UK has ... ??

The largest financial centre in the world and the world's 5th largest economy and is the home of the most widely spoken language in the world.

In my experience American English has largely superseded British English. Even in Hong Kong these days there is an American twang to the way the locals speak our greatest gift to the world.

American English is still English, the words are almost exactly the same just spoken in a slightly different accent but you could say the same about Geordie and London English.

Up into a verb.

All pretty negligible, you do not need to take a dictionary or translator to go to the USA.

You will be surprised how many places in the US there are where an English accent is incomprehensible. Many's the time outside the major cities when people simply have not been able to understand even my very light North London accent.

I have often felt the same when living in Wales where they even have their own native language it does not change the fact English is the main language.

Nigelb

Essexit said:

Beverley_C said:

Essexit said:

Beverley_C said:

Essexit said:

An astute point. Of the 32 countries on Earth.....

What planet are YOU on? The last time I checked there were approx 200 countries on Earth

There are another 168 countries - outside the EU? How do they cope?

Mostly badly. Some very badly.

*Sarcastic mode over* True, but the ones doing badly or very badly are not the ones comparable to Britain.

Which are the ones comparable to Britain ?

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Price/Mr. Nabavi, does look long. Got a few pounds on at 1.7.

Also backed a second EU referendum earlier today on Ladbrokes, with boost, before 2020 at 6.5.

Mr. L, it'd be interesting to see how economic lopsidedness in geographical and sector terms has improved or worsened over that time. I remember someone posting an interesting set of political transport stats, with every decision-making bigwig living in the south, and 9/10 living in London/the South-east.