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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When will there be the next Cabinet resignation? William Hill’

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  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    It's too late for Moore to withdraw and be replaced.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2017
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alabama special election has just gone nuclear.

    Are you talking about this? https://twitter.com/rwpusa/status/928703226718932992
    Yup. 14 years old for one of the allegations.
    I see that Mitch McConnell has said that if the allegations are true, Roy Moore should step aside. Also the NYT have just released a story on Louis C.K: https://twitter.com/emilynussbaum/status/928711714073346049
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mortimer said:

    Not Leaving would be far worse for both us and the EU. Most people can see this. But the Continuity Ultras and the EU Project Choir are not most people.

    The United Kingdom can cease to be a member of the EU by simply ceasing to be. That may yet prove to be the ineluctable outcome of the referendum.
    If the EU referendum was the last nail in the Scottish Indy coffin then Catalonia was the spare dozen on top to make sure the vampire stays in.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,796

    Mortimer said:

    Not Leaving would be far worse for both us and the EU. Most people can see this. But the Continuity Ultras and the EU Project Choir are not most people.

    The United Kingdom can cease to be a member of the EU by simply ceasing to be. That may yet prove to be the ineluctable outcome of the referendum.
    We could also leave if the EU ceased to be. I think that this would be more likely.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    Mortimer said:

    Not Leaving would be far worse for both us and the EU. Most people can see this. But the Continuity Ultras and the EU Project Choir are not most people.

    The United Kingdom can cease to be a member of the EU by simply ceasing to be. That may yet prove to be the ineluctable outcome of the referendum.
    The EU can cease to be by simply having no more members. That may yet prove to be the ineluctable outcome of pissing off its citizens
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,760
    Omnium said:

    Mortimer said:

    Not Leaving would be far worse for both us and the EU. Most people can see this. But the Continuity Ultras and the EU Project Choir are not most people.

    The United Kingdom can cease to be a member of the EU by simply ceasing to be. That may yet prove to be the ineluctable outcome of the referendum.
    We could also leave if the EU ceased to be. I think that this would be more likely.
    Both the end of the UK and the end of the EU are possible, but unlikely. As a Scot who supports the Union, I have to say the end of the UK is a bit more likely.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,924

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alabama special election has just gone nuclear.

    Are you talking about this? https://twitter.com/rwpusa/status/928703226718932992
    Yup. 14 years old for one of the allegations.
    I see that Mitch McConnell has said that if the allegations are true, Roy Moore should step aside. Also the NYT have just released a story on Louis C.K: https://twitter.com/emilynussbaum/status/928711714073346049
    It’s all starting to come out, there’s an awful lot of people in Hollywood right now wondering if they’re next up for the front pages.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Mortimer said:



    Not Leaving would be far worse for both us and the EU. Most people can see this. But the Continuity Ultras and the EU Project Choir are not most people.

    The idea that we could turn the EU clock back to before the June 2016 Referendum is fanciful in the extreme.

  • Options

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alabama special election has just gone nuclear.

    Are you talking about this? https://twitter.com/rwpusa/status/928703226718932992
    Yup. 14 years old for one of the allegations.
    I see that Mitch McConnell has said that if the allegations are true, Roy Moore should step aside. Also the NYT have just released a story on Louis C.K: https://twitter.com/emilynussbaum/status/928711714073346049
    It’s all starting to come out, there’s an awful lot of people in Hollywood right now wondering if they’re next up for the front pages.
    PopBitch makes for interesting reading....
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alabama special election has just gone nuclear.

    Are you talking about this? https://twitter.com/rwpusa/status/928703226718932992
    Yup. 14 years old for one of the allegations.
    I see that Mitch McConnell has said that if the allegations are true, Roy Moore should step aside. Also the NYT have just released a story on Louis C.K: https://twitter.com/emilynussbaum/status/928711714073346049
    That Louis C.K one sounds familiar, I feel I have heard them previously if true, it may be its another of those regrettable situations where people knew and have been joking about it before.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alabama special election has just gone nuclear.

    Are you talking about this? https://twitter.com/rwpusa/status/928703226718932992
    Yup. 14 years old for one of the allegations.
    I see that Mitch McConnell has said that if the allegations are true, Roy Moore should step aside. Also the NYT have just released a story on Louis C.K: https://twitter.com/emilynussbaum/status/928711714073346049
    It’s all starting to come out, there’s an awful lot of people in Hollywood right now wondering if they’re next up for the front pages.
    Yep. Saw on twitter about an hour or so ago that he’d cancelled his movie premiere in anticipation of this story coming out, so many actually knew a few hours in advance that this story was going to be released.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,924
    Omnium said:

    Mortimer said:

    Not Leaving would be far worse for both us and the EU. Most people can see this. But the Continuity Ultras and the EU Project Choir are not most people.

    The United Kingdom can cease to be a member of the EU by simply ceasing to be. That may yet prove to be the ineluctable outcome of the referendum.
    We could also leave if the EU ceased to be. I think that this would be more likely.
    It’s better than that. We are already leaving, on 29th March 2019. The legislation has been passed and our two years’ notice handed in. If no-one does anything for the next 16 months we’ll be out regardless.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    May inherited the political vortex of Andrew Cooper's making. Yeah, Cameron won an election. Then what?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

  • Options

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    He lost a referendum
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    There's a by-election today in the Thamesfield ward of Wandsworth council. It's a very safe Tory seat at the moment so would be a total disaster if they lost it to Labour.

    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/10717/local-elections-9-11-17
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    It's the same as the old resign vs sacked debate. Jumped before he was pushed.
  • Options

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    May inherited the political vortex of Andrew Cooper's making. Yeah, Cameron won an election. Then what?
    Yes, and she looked on course for a majority having inherited that political vortex until about May. It’s not Andrew Cooper’s fault that May’s government is in a mess.

    ‘Then what?’ Well, I thought the Conservatives placed value on winning majorities....
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2017

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    He lost a referendum
    We know that. The point is he did some winning in his time as leader, in contrast to May.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,924

    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alabama special election has just gone nuclear.

    Are you talking about this? https://twitter.com/rwpusa/status/928703226718932992
    Yup. 14 years old for one of the allegations.
    I see that Mitch McConnell has said that if the allegations are true, Roy Moore should step aside. Also the NYT have just released a story on Louis C.K: https://twitter.com/emilynussbaum/status/928711714073346049
    It’s all starting to come out, there’s an awful lot of people in Hollywood right now wondering if they’re next up for the front pages.
    PopBitch makes for interesting reading....
    Blind Items Rehash too. It’s been obvious since before the Weinstein scandal broke that there’s a whole load of freaks and perverts in Hollywood, and the stories are now all going to come out. Lots of it is non-consensual and lots of the victims are very young.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    kle4 said:

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    It's the same as the old resign vs sacked debate. Jumped before he was pushed.
    imo Cameron put the nail in Remains coffin

    if he had stayed there was a chance of a renegotiation and a second referendum

    when he ran the EU had no-one to talk to until it was too late
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    Leavers won a referendum. Then ran away.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    It's the same as the old resign vs sacked debate. Jumped before he was pushed.
    Agreed.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    May inherited the political vortex of Andrew Cooper's making. Yeah, Cameron won an election. Then what?
    Yes, and she looked on course for a majority having inherited that political vortex until about May. It’s not Andrew Cooper’s fault that May’s government is in a mess.

    ‘Then what?’ Well, I thought the Conservatives placed value on winning majorities....
    Many never forgave him for not winning one in 2010, and seeming comfortable in coalition. The referendum business is a more pressing criticism, although frankly that he was unsuccessful in convincing the public I would at most suggest he was inadequate for that task, as ultimately it was the public making that choice with all the criticisms out in the open.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,859

    @williamglenn is right, the Conservatives need to undergo a detoxification. Moves to right have now not worked in about three general elections in recent memory for them - 2001, 2005 and 2017. It is one thing for you not to win big with a right wing message against Blair’s centrist Labour Party, but to not win a majority and to actually lose to seats to the most left wing Labour leader in modern political history (who had such a chequered past) is truly something.

    Right wing rhetoric on immigration - the thing which, along with Brexit was supposed to lead to a super majority on the back of WWC voters in fact repelled voters as much as it attracted them, as it turns out not everyone is a great fan of the statements some Conservatives make about immigrants and their descendants.

    Sean_F says that most Conservative voters will go elsewhere, but that didn’t happen in 2015, when Cameron won the first Conservative majority in twenty-five years. I happen to think, reflecting on it more that Cameron’s dextofication hit the brakes when the party ended up becoming engulfed by the austerity agenda which was clearly not his original plan in 2006. But Cameron still attempted to make some improvements by marketing the Tories as a forward-looking party, and trying to persuade groups which had not traditionally voted Tory that there was a place for them in the party. Of course, a lot of this was all image to a degree - I never got the impression Cameron actually changed the minds of many Conservative activists/members, and there seemed to be a section of the party who always tolerated him at most. Brexit has revealed to us something that we all knew - that the old Tory party never really went away.

    Now the ‘Brexit’ Conservative Party appears to be representative of those who would like a world as designed by Paul Dacre. Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,924
    edited November 2017

    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alabama special election has just gone nuclear.

    Are you talking about this? https://twitter.com/rwpusa/status/928703226718932992
    Yup. 14 years old for one of the allegations.
    I see that Mitch McConnell has said that if the allegations are true, Roy Moore should step aside. Also the NYT have just released a story on Louis C.K: https://twitter.com/emilynussbaum/status/928711714073346049
    It’s all starting to come out, there’s an awful lot of people in Hollywood right now wondering if they’re next up for the front pages.
    Yep. Saw on twitter about an hour or so ago that he’d cancelled his movie premiere in anticipation of this story coming out, so many actually knew a few hours in advance that this story was going to be released.
    His people probably got phoned by the paper for a response to the story, that’ll be the point he realises that the whole world is about to know he’s a pervert.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    24th Edition Erskine May Pages 430-431 (I promise I won't overdo this, but unless things have advanced significantly since 2011, this was the official position)

    In principle, a Member is not permitted to read a speech, but may make reference to notes. Similarly, a member may read extracts from documents but such extract and quotations should be reasonably short. The purpose of this rule is to maintain the cut and thrust of debate, which depends upon successive speakers meeting in their speeches to some extent the arguments of earlier speeches; debate is more than a series of set speeches prepared beforehand without reference to each other. For the same reason, the Speaker has urged Members to remain in their places after they have spoken and to return to the House for the concluding speeches of a debate.

    (cut paragraph for space, about being present at start of debate, remaining as much as possible etc, making reference to the speeches of others - in line with that one's owns peech should not be all prepared and read out - and the select committee on modernization endorsing these principles)

    Unless appealed to, the Chair does not normally intervene to enforce the rule against reading a speech; and, unless there is good ground in the interests of the debate for intervening, the matter is usually passed off with a remark to the effect that the notes used by the honourable Member appear to be unusually full. The rule against reading speeches is in any case relaxed for opening speeches or whenever there is special reason for precision, as in important ministerial statements, notably on foreign affairs, in matters involving agreements with outside bodies or in highly technical bills. Even at a later stage, prepared statements on such subjects may be read without objection being taken, though they should not constitute an entire speech. The rule is also relaxed for Members making their maiden speech, about which guidance is now given to new Members. The reading of speeches is even less suited to a committee than to the House itself.

    In March 2011, the Speaker announced that, in the light of the recommendations of the Procedure Committee, he did not believe that the occupant of the Chair could reasonably prevent a Member from discreetly using a hand-held electronic device (such as a tablet) as an aide memoire while addressing the House.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    @williamglenn is right, the Conservatives need to undergo a detoxification. Moves to right have now not worked in about three general elections in recent memory for them - 2001, 2005 and 2017. It is one thing for you not to win big with a right wing message against Blair’s centrist Labour Party, but to not win a majority and to actually lose to seats to the most left wing Labour leader in modern political history (who had such a chequered past) is truly something.

    Right wing rhetoric on immigration - the thing which, along with Brexit was supposed to lead to a super majority on the back of WWC voters in fact repelled voters as much as it attracted them, as it turns out not everyone is a great fan of the statements some Conservatives make about immigrants and their descendants.

    Sean_F says that most Conservative voters will go elsewhere, but that didn’t happen in 2015, when Cameron won the first Conservative majority in twenty-five years. I happen to think, reflecting on it more that Cameron’s dextofication hit the brakes when the party ended up becoming engulfed by the austerity agenda which was clearly not his original plan in 2006. But Cameron still attempted to make some improvements by marketing the Tories as a forward-looking party, and trying to persuade groups which had not traditionally voted Tory that there was a place for them in the party. Of course, a lot of this was all image to a degree - I never got the impression Cameron actually changed the minds of many Conservative activists/members, and there seemed to be a section of the party who always tolerated him at most. Brexit has revealed to us something that we all knew - that the old Tory party never really went away.

    Now the ‘Brexit’ Conservative Party appears to be representative of those who would like a world as designed by Paul Dacre. Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

    The anti-immigration Brexit prospectus Theresa May stood on was as hard right as any Britain has seen since the Second World War.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    Leavers won a referendum. Then ran away.
    Lol

    who's leading that big Remain charge ?

    Vince Zombie ? Jeremy Halfheart ? Eddie Izzard ?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,859

    Basically, we're fecked.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/08/uk-has-become-ungovernable-no-one-wants-to-admit-it-suzanne-moore

    "The instability at the heart of the government reflects the personal inadequacy of Tory ministers, but, politically, it runs deeper. When given a vote on something important, the majority of people voted against Westminster, against London, against the elites. Obviously, they have not taken back control, but what becomes clearer daily is that neither has the government. It is incapable of doing so. Its members are like children who shut their eyes and think no one else can see them. They lie, smear and dissemble as the UK falls apart.

    This may not be anarchy as we imagined it, but the chaos at the top of our system is the reckoning. We are crashing in the same car."

    We aren't. We're a rich and successful country with a weak and inept government.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    May inherited the political vortex of Andrew Cooper's making. Yeah, Cameron won an election. Then what?
    Yes, and she looked on course for a majority having inherited that political vortex until about May. It’s not Andrew Cooper’s fault that May’s government is in a mess.

    ‘Then what?’ Well, I thought the Conservatives placed value on winning majorities....
    Many never forgave him for not winning one in 2010, and seeming comfortable in coalition. The referendum business is a more pressing criticism, although frankly that he was unsuccessful in convincing the public I would at most suggest he was inadequate for that task, as ultimately it was the public making that choice with all the criticisms out in the open.
    Yep, I’ll never forget the Telegraph’s actions re David Laws. The reality of it though, is that using the LDs as a foil and as a means of detoxifying the Conservative brand actually worked.

    I’m not a fan of Cameron’s conduct at all during the EU ref but he’s not to blame for everything that has gone wrong for May.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Basically, we're fecked.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/08/uk-has-become-ungovernable-no-one-wants-to-admit-it-suzanne-moore

    "The instability at the heart of the government reflects the personal inadequacy of Tory ministers, but, politically, it runs deeper. When given a vote on something important, the majority of people voted against Westminster, against London, against the elites. Obviously, they have not taken back control, but what becomes clearer daily is that neither has the government. It is incapable of doing so. Its members are like children who shut their eyes and think no one else can see them. They lie, smear and dissemble as the UK falls apart.

    This may not be anarchy as we imagined it, but the chaos at the top of our system is the reckoning. We are crashing in the same car."

    Hot air. Ordinary people outside London aren't fussed.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    Sean_F said:

    @williamglenn is right, the Conservatives need to undergo a detoxification. Moves to right have now not worked in about three general elections in recent memory for them - 2001, 2005 and 2017. It is one thing for you not to win big with a right wing message against Blair’s centrist Labour Party, but to not win a majority and to actually lose to seats to the most left wing Labour leader in modern political history (who had such a chequered past) is truly something.

    Right wing rhetoric on immigration - the thing which, along with Brexit was supposed to lead to a super majority on the back of WWC voters in fact repelled voters as much as it attracted them, as it turns out not everyone is a great fan of the statements some Conservatives make about immigrants and their descendants.

    Sean_F says that most Conservative voters will go elsewhere, but that didn’t happen in 2015, when Cameron won the first Conservative majority in twenty-five years. I happen to think, reflecting on it more that Cameron’s dextofication hit the brakes when the party ended up becoming engulfed by the austerity agenda which was clearly not his original plan in 2006. But Cameron still attempted to make some improvements by marketing the Tories as a forward-looking party, and trying to persuade groups which had not traditionally voted Tory that there was a place for them in the party. Of course, a lot of this was all image to a degree - I never got the impression Cameron actually changed the minds of many Conservative activists/members, and there seemed to be a section of the party who always tolerated him at most. Brexit has revealed to us something that we all knew - that the old Tory party never really went away.

    Now the ‘Brexit’ Conservative Party appears to be representative of those who would like a world as designed by Paul Dacre. Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

    The anti-immigration Brexit prospectus Theresa May stood on was as hard right as any Britain has seen since the Second World War.
    So bits were to the right, bits were to the left. Not really a surprise given all the talk about parking tanks on Labour's lawn.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    Sean_F said:

    @williamglenn is right, the Conservatives need to undergo a detoxification. Moves to right have now not worked in about three general elections in recent memory for them - 2001, 2005 and 2017. It is one thing for you not to win big with a right wing message against Blair’s centrist Labour Party, but to not win a majority and to actually lose to seats to the most left wing Labour leader in modern political history (who had such a chequered past) is truly something.

    Right wing rhetoric on immigration - the thing which, along with Brexit was supposed to lead to a super majority on the back of WWC voters in fact repelled voters as much as it attracted them, as it turns out not everyone is a great fan of the statements some Conservatives make about immigrants and their descendants.

    Sean_F says that most Conservative voters will go elsewhere, but that didn’t happen in 2015, when Cameron won the first Conservative majority in twenty-five years. I happen to think, reflecting on it more that Cameron’s dextofication hit the brakes when the party ended up becoming engulfed by the austerity agenda which was clearly not his original plan in 2006. But Cameron still attempted to make some improvements by marketing the Tories as a forward-looking party, and trying to persuade groups which had not traditionally voted Tory that there was a place for them in the party. Of course, a lot of this was all image to a degree - I never got the impression Cameron actually changed the minds of many Conservative activists/members, and there seemed to be a section of the party who always tolerated him at most. Brexit has revealed to us something that we all knew - that the old Tory party never really went away.

    Now the ‘Brexit’ Conservative Party appears to be representative of those who would like a world as designed by Paul Dacre. Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

    The anti-immigration Brexit prospectus Theresa May stood on was as hard right as any Britain has seen since the Second World War.
    I suspect that may surprise the National Front

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,859

    Sean_F said:

    @williamglenn is right, the Conservatives need to undergo a detoxification. Moves to right have now not worked in about three general elections in recent memory for them - 2001, 2005 and 2017. It is one thing for you not to win big with a right wing message against Blair’s centrist Labour Party, but to not win a majority and to actually lose to seats to the most left wing Labour leader in modern political history (who had such a chequered past) is truly something.

    Right wing rhetoric on immigration - the thing which, along with Brexit was supposed to lead to a super majority on the back of WWC voters in fact repelled voters as much as it attracted them, as it turns out not everyone is a great fan of the statements some Conservatives make about immigrants and their descendants.

    Sean_F says that most Conservative voters will go elsewhere, but that didn’t happen in 2015, when Cameron won the first Conservative majority in twenty-five years. I happen to think, reflecting on it more that Cameron’s dextofication hit the brakes when the party ended up becoming engulfed by the austerity agenda which was clearly not his original plan in 2006. But Cameron still attempted to make some improvements by marketing the Tories as a forward-looking party, and trying to persuade groups which had not traditionally voted Tory that there was a place for them in the party. Of course, a lot of this was all image to a degree - I never got the impression Cameron actually changed the minds of many Conservative activists/members, and there seemed to be a section of the party who always tolerated him at most. Brexit has revealed to us something that we all knew - that the old Tory party never really went away.

    Now the ‘Brexit’ Conservative Party appears to be representative of those who would like a world as designed by Paul Dacre. Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

    The anti-immigration Brexit prospectus Theresa May stood on was as hard right as any Britain has seen since the Second World War.
    Certainly not as Right on immigration as the manifesto of 1970, or the manifestos of the 1980's.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101
    Sean_F said:

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

    Left/right is an inadequate way to frame the split in the party when people like John Redwood call on the Treasury to 'find the money' to pay for Brexit and to make up more optimistic forecasts. It's no accident that the Brexiteers copied Tony Benn's rhetoric from the 1975 campaign.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2017
    This tweet hasn't aged very well....

    https://twitter.com/garylineker/status/927685399744454656
    Much that the story is nonsense, still mildly amusing to have smug jug ears having a bit of incoming.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    @williamglenn is right, the Conservatives need to undergo a detoxification. Moves to right have now not worked in about three general elections in recent memory for them - 2001, 2005 and 2017. It is one thing for you not to win big with a right wing message against Blair’s centrist Labour Party, but to not win a majority and to actually lose to seats to the most left wing Labour leader in modern political history (who had such a chequered past) is truly something.

    Right wing rhetoric on immigration - the thing which, along with Brexit was supposed to lead to a super majority on the back of WWC voters in fact repelled voters as much as it attracted them, as it turns out not everyone is a great fan of the statements some Conservatives make about immigrants and their descendants.

    Sean_F says that most Conservative voters will go elsewhere, but that didn’t happen in 2015, when Cameron won the first Conservative majority in twenty-five years. I happen to think, reflecting on it more that Cameron’s dextofication hit the brakes when the party ended up becoming engulfed by the austerity agenda which was clearly not his original plan in 2006. But Cameron still attempted to make some improvements by marketing the Tories as a forward-looking party, and trying to persuade groups which had not traditionally voted Tory that there was a place for them in the party. Of course, a lot of this was all image to a degree - I never got the impression Cameron actually changed the minds of many Conservative activists/members, and there seemed to be a section of the party who always tolerated him at most. Brexit has revealed to us something that we all knew - that the old Tory party never really went away.

    Now the ‘Brexit’ Conservative Party appears to be representative of those who would like a world as designed by Paul Dacre. Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

    The anti-immigration Brexit prospectus Theresa May stood on was as hard right as any Britain has seen since the Second World War.
    So bits were to the right, bits were to the left. Not really a surprise given all the talk about parking tanks on Labour's lawn.
    The election was called on Brexit. It was called to cement a hard right agenda.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    Sean_F said:

    Basically, we're fecked.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/08/uk-has-become-ungovernable-no-one-wants-to-admit-it-suzanne-moore

    "The instability at the heart of the government reflects the personal inadequacy of Tory ministers, but, politically, it runs deeper. When given a vote on something important, the majority of people voted against Westminster, against London, against the elites. Obviously, they have not taken back control, but what becomes clearer daily is that neither has the government. It is incapable of doing so. Its members are like children who shut their eyes and think no one else can see them. They lie, smear and dissemble as the UK falls apart.

    This may not be anarchy as we imagined it, but the chaos at the top of our system is the reckoning. We are crashing in the same car."

    We aren't. We're a rich and successful country with a weak and inept government.
    it;s a malaise not restricted to the government but the whole leadership class

  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    @williamglenn is right, the Conservatives need to undergo a detoxification. Moves to right have now not worked in about three general elections in recent memory for them - 2001, 2005 and 2017. It is one thing for you not to win big with a right wing message against Blair’s centrist Labour Party, but to not win a majority and to actually lose to seats to the most left wing Labour leader in modern political history (who had such a chequered past) is truly something.

    Right wing rhetoric on immigration - the thing which, along with Brexit was supposed to lead to a super majority on the back of WWC voters in fact repelled voters as much as it attracted them, as it turns out not everyone is a great fan of the statements some Conservatives make about immigrants and their descendants.

    Sean_F says that most Conservative voters will go elsewhere, but that didn’t happen in 2015, when Cameron won the first Conservative majority in twenty-five years. I happen to think, reflecting on it more that Cameron’s dextofication hit the brakes when the party ended up becoming engulfed by the austerity agenda which was clearly not his original plan in 2006. But Cameron still attempted to make some improvements by marketing the Tories as a forward-looking party, and trying to persuade groups which had not traditionally voted Tory that there was a place for them in the party. Of course, a lot of this was all image to a degree - I never got the impression Cameron actually changed the minds of many Conservative activists/members, and there seemed to be a section of the party who always tolerated him at most. Brexit has revealed to us something that we all knew - that the old Tory party never really went away.

    Now the ‘Brexit’ Conservative Party appears to be representative of those who would like a world as designed by Paul Dacre. Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

    It was left on issues concerning the economy. They moved more to right on social issues for the most part with the exception of that racial audit.

    She is not on the right of the party, I agree. But she is more than happy to cede to their talking points on many social issues (in a way she never did before).
  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    @williamglenn is right, the Conservatives need to undergo a detoxification. Moves to right have now not worked in about three general elections in recent memory for them - 2001, 2005 and 2017. It is one thing for you not to win big with a right wing message against Blair’s centrist Labour Party, but to not win a majority and to actually lose to seats to the most left wing Labour leader in modern political history (who had such a chequered past) is truly something.

    Right wing rhetoric on immigration - the thing which, along with Brexit was supposed to lead to a super majority on the back of WWC voters in fact repelled voters as much as it attracted them, as it turns out not everyone is a great fan of the statements some Conservatives make about immigrants and their descendants.

    Sean_F says that most Conservative voters will go elsewhere, but that didn’t happen in 2015, when Cameron won the first Conservative majority in twenty-five years. I happen to think, reflecting on it more that Cameron’s dextofication hit the brakes when the party ended up becoming engulfed by the austerity agenda which was clearly not his original plan in 2006. But Cameron still attempted to make some improvements by marketing the Tories as a forward-looking party, and trying to persuade groups which had not traditionally voted Tory that there was a place for them in the party. Of course, a lot of this was all image to a degree - I never got the impression Cameron actually changed the minds of many Conservative activists/members, and there seemed to be a section of the party who always tolerated him at most. Brexit has revealed to us something that we all knew - that the old Tory party never really went away.

    Now the ‘Brexit’ Conservative Party appears to be representative of those who would like a world as designed by Paul Dacre. Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

    The anti-immigration Brexit prospectus Theresa May stood on was as hard right as any Britain has seen since the Second World War.
    +1.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Andrew Teale's excellent by-election review (which he does each week):

    https://britainelects.com/2017/11/07/previews-09-nov-2017/
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,859

    Sean_F said:

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

    Left/right is an inadequate way to frame the split in the party when people like John Redwood call on the Treasury to 'find the money' to pay for Brexit and to make up more optimistic forecasts. It's no accident that the Brexiteers copied Tony Benn's rhetoric from the 1975 campaign.
    It's true that notions of what is Right and Left change over time.
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,359
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alabama special election has just gone nuclear.

    Are you talking about this? https://twitter.com/rwpusa/status/928703226718932992
    Yup. 14 years old for one of the allegations.
    I see that Mitch McConnell has said that if the allegations are true, Roy Moore should step aside. Also the NYT have just released a story on Louis C.K: https://twitter.com/emilynussbaum/status/928711714073346049
    That Louis C.K one sounds familiar, I feel I have heard them previously if true, it may be its another of those regrettable situations where people knew and have been joking about it before.
    Yup. He was asked about it at the premiere of his new movie (incidentally a thinly veiled dig at Woody Allen's alleged proclivities) and dismissed it as just "rumours" - and rumours of exactly this have done the rounds for a few years.

    The terrifying thing about Moore is that it's not out of the question he wins despite this - he's 8 points or so ahead and Breitbart pre-empted WaPo's story with a hatchet piece - if Bannon and co go out to bat for him it may be brushed off with that terrible phrase "fake news".
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    kyf_100 said:

    welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have two reasons for believing that this is too optimistic.

    1) The government is too enervated to give the kind of lead that it would need to give in the next couple of weeks to make this work.

    2) Parliament is too tumultuous at present to agree to some of the points that Mr Grant thinks Britain will need to cede.

    You might well be right, although as he notes there are powerful economic pressures on both sides to come to some kind of botched-up deal. Certainly the election result has made the risk of disaster much greater.
    If that is how it pans out Britain may as well stay in the EU, to be honest.

    I despise Leavers who blame the EU or Remainers for Brexit shortcomings or claim it would be a perversion of democracy to revisit the decision. You sold the project; you deliver it. I accept the uplands might be a bit overcast and not wholly sunlit, but I don't want a desert. If you can't deliver it, admit your mistake and we can do something different, like stay in the EU.
    I for one would feel I was no longer living in a democracy and indeed effectively under a foreign power my vote cannot remove.

    Hardly a healthy or stable situation.
    +1.

    If the decision were to be reversed at this point, it would be an absolute vindication of the strongest argument to leave. Even if the decision were to be endorsed in a second referendum, it would raise the cry of "you will always keep us voting until we vote the right way".

    And if Brexit proves impossible, then we have checked into the Hotel California - handed over our sovereignty to an undemocratic and unelected foreign power with no ability to bring those powers back.

    Those remainers saying we have to leave are quite correct - the only difference is they hope that the country will go down in flames and that we will be punished, actually punished, for standing up for our democratic rights.

    It is the EU that is at fault, not the UK. If the EU ever became an actual democracy, one where I had the ability to hire and fire the people who made laws over me, I would vote to rejoin in a heartbeat.

    But does anybody really see that happening?
    We had the chance to vote for mEPs. Mine is Daniel Hannan. And I’ve always found the process by which EU regulations get set to be a lot more transparent than what happens at Westminster.I will agree it’s harder to have very democratic processes in a large organisation. But UK is already way bigger than the ideal.Unless we go back to Athenian scale city states I’m afraid I will have to live with an imperfect democracy whatever we do.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    edited November 2017

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    @williamglenn is right, the Conservatives need to undergo a detoxification. Moves to right have now not worked in about three general elections in recent memory for them - 2001, 2005 and 2017. It is one thing for you not to win big with a right wing message against Blair’s centrist Labour Party, but to not win a majority and to actually lose to seats to the most left wing Labour leader in modern political history (who had such a chequered past) is truly something.

    Right wing rhetoric on immigration - the thing which, along with Brexit was supposed to lead to a super majority on the back of WWC voters in fact repelled voters as much as it attracted them, as it turns out not everyone is a great fan of the statements some Conservatives make about immigrants and their descendants.

    Sean_F says thatd to make some improvements by marketing the Tories as a forward-looking party, and trying to persuade groups which had not traditionally voted Tory that there was a place for them in the party. Of course, a lot of this was all image to a degree - I never got the impression Cameron actually changed the minds of many Conservative activists/members, and there seemed to be a section of the party who always tolerated him at most. Brexit has revealed to us something that we all knew - that the old Tory party never really went away.

    Now the ‘Brexit’ Conservative Party appears to be representative of those who would like a world as designed by Paul Dacre. Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

    The anti-immigration Brexit prospectus Theresa May stood on was as hard right as any Britain has seen since the Second World War.
    So bits were to the right, bits were to the left. Not really a surprise given all the talk about parking tanks on Labour's lawn.
    The election was called on Brexit. It was called to cement a hard right agenda.
    If you say so, I wasn't saying there were an equal amount of bits - I haven't done an analysis of how right/left each and every policy in every referendum was, and thus what the overall level of right/left ness was. Was it overwhelmingly right wing with some left wing covering? Was its core right wing but it had layers of left wing surrounding it?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    that;s the cost of betting the farm on financial services
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    @williamglenn is right, the Conservatives need to undergo a detoxification. Moves to right have now not worked in about three general elections in recent memory for them - 2001, 2005 and 2017. It is one thing for you not to win big with a right wing message against Blair’s centrist Labour Party, but to not win a majority and to actually lose to seats to the most left wing Labour leader in modern political history (who had such a chequered past) is truly something.

    Right wing rhetoric on immigration - the thing which, along with Brexit was supposed to lead to a super majority on the back of WWC voters in fact repelled voters as much as it attracted them, as it turns out not everyone is a great fan of the statements some Conservatives make about immigrants and their descendants.

    Sean_F says thatd to make some improvements by marketing the Tories as a forward-looking party, and trying to persuade groups which had not traditionally voted Tory that there was a place for them in the party. Of course, a lot of this was all image to a degree - I never got the impression Cameron actually changed the minds of many Conservative activists/members, and there seemed to be a section of the party who always tolerated him at most. Brexit has revealed to us something that we all knew - that the old Tory party never really went away.

    Now the ‘Brexit’ Conservative Party appears to be representative of those who would like a world as designed by Paul Dacre. Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

    The anti-immigration Brexit prospectus Theresa May stood on was as hard right as any Britain has seen since the Second World War.
    So bits were to the right, bits were to the left. Not really a surprise given all the talk about parking tanks on Labour's lawn.
    The election was called on Brexit. It was called to cement a hard right agenda.
    If you say so, I wasn't saying there were an equal amount of bits - I haven't done an analysis of how right/left each and every policy in every referendum was, and thus what the overall level of right/left ness was. Was it overwhelmingly right wing with some left wing covering? Was its core right wing but it had layers of left wing surrounding it?
    Mrs May said so. "Crush the saboteurs", remember.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alabama special election has just gone nuclear.

    Are you talking about this? https://twitter.com/rwpusa/status/928703226718932992
    Yup. 14 years old for one of the allegations.
    I see that Mitch McConnell has said that if the allegations are true, Roy Moore should step aside. Also the NYT have just released a story on Louis C.K: https://twitter.com/emilynussbaum/status/928711714073346049
    That Louis C.K one sounds familiar, I feel I have heard them previously if true, it may be its another of those regrettable situations where people knew and have been joking about it before.
    There have been a lot of stories in the press about Louis CKs behaviour over the last few years.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    Leavers won a referendum. Then ran away.
    Lol

    who's leading that big Remain charge ?

    Vince Zombie ? Jeremy Halfheart ? Eddie Izzard ?
    Happy with how Brexit is going?

    We are at midpoint between referendum and Leaving tommorow. 505 days since and 505 to go.

    Are we halfway there yet?

    Default unprepared WTO Brexit is the default and increasingly nailed on.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    edited November 2017

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    @williamglenn is right, the Conservatives need to undergo a detoxification. Moves to right have now not worked in about three general elections in recent memory for them - 2001, 2005 and 2017. It is one thing for you not to win big with a right wing message against Blair’s centrist Labour Party, but to not win a majority and to actually lose to seats to the most left wing Labour leader in modern political history (who had such a chequered past) is truly something.

    Right wing rhetoric on immigration - the thing which, along with Brexit was supposed to lead to a super majority on the back of WWC voters in fact repelled voters as much as it attracted them, as it turns out not everyone is a great fan of the statements some Conservatives make about immigrants and their descendants.

    Sean_F says thatd to make some improvements by marketing the Tories as a forward-looking party, and tryinet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

    The anti-immigration Brexit prospectus Theresa May stood on was as hard right as any Britain has seen since the Second World War.
    So bits were to the right, bits were to the left. Not really a surprise given all the talk about parking tanks on Labour's lawn.
    The election was called on Brexit. It was called to cement a hard right agenda.
    If you say so, I wasn't saying there were an equal amount of bits - I haven't done an analysis of how right/left each and every policy in every referendum was, and thus what the overall level of right/left ness was. Was it overwhelmingly right wing with some left wing covering? Was its core right wing but it had layers of left wing surrounding it?
    Mrs May said so. "Crush the saboteurs", remember.
    I remember that that was a newspaper headline. And that given significant numbers of leavers on the left, crushing so called saboteurs was also a pitch to some on the left. But, regardless, my point was whatever the principal motivation, that doesn't mean there were not significant left wing bits. Whether there were enough to make it not a hard right prospectus overall I do not know, and without going through the manifesto line by line we cannot know. I cannot imagine any of us is interested in undertaking such an analysis, given the whole thing is now discarded.

    But I am interested in whether even if the core was hard right, how much of the rest was not?
  • Options

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    He lost a referendum
    We know that. The point is he did some winning in his time as leader, in contrast to May.
    So Labour won the 2017 election? Must have missed the part when Corbyn became PM.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,859

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    Growth has been generating an enormous number of jobs in the UK, rather than showing up in rising real wages.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    that;s the cost of betting the farm on financial services
    I agree. The EU27 have pursued a better economic policy, but fear not. We will shortly find out what a contraction of financial services looks like.
  • Options

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    @williamglenn is right, the Conservatives need to undergo a detoxification. Moves to right have now not worked in about three general elections in recent memory for them - 2001, 2005 and 2017. It is one thing for you not to win big with a right wing message against Blair’s centrist Labour Party, but to not win a majority and to actually lose to seats to the most left wing Labour leader in modern political history (who had such a chequered past) is truly something.

    Right wing rhetoric on immigration - the thing which, along with Brexit was supposed to lead to a super majority on the back of WWC voters in fact repelled voters as much as it attracted them, as it turns out not everyone is a great fan of the statements some Conservatives make about immigrants and their descendants.

    Sean_F says that most Conservative voters will go elsewhere, but that didn’t happen in 2015, when Cameron won the first Conservative majority in twenty-five years. I happen to think, reflecting on it more that Cameron’s dextofication hit the brakes when the party ended up becoming engulfed by the austerity agenda which was clearly not his original plan in 2006. But Cameron still attempted to make some improvements by marketing the Tories as a forward-looking party, and trying to persuade groups which had not traditionally voted Tory that there was a place for them in the party. Of course, a lot of this was all image to a degree - I never got the impression Cameron actually changed the minds of many Conservative activists/members, and there seemed to be a section of the party who always tolerated him at most. Brexit has revealed to us something that we all knew - that the old Tory party never really went away.

    Now the ‘Brexit’ Conservative Party appears to be representative of those who would like a world as designed by Paul Dacre. Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    Theresa May's manifesto was to the Left of what the Conservatives were putting forward in 2015. She is certainly not on the Right of the party.

    The anti-immigration Brexit prospectus Theresa May stood on was as hard right as any Britain has seen since the Second World War.
    So bits were to the right, bits were to the left. Not really a surprise given all the talk about parking tanks on Labour's lawn.
    The election was called on Brexit. It was called to cement a hard right agenda.
    "You never go full Remoaner!"
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2017

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    He lost a referendum
    We know that. The point is he did some winning in his time as leader, in contrast to May.
    So Labour won the 2017 election? Must have missed the part when Corbyn became PM.
    No, they didn’t. But May didn’t win a majority, she actually lost one.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    ...after promising he wouldn't. HE broke the UK in the EU. But refused to own it.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    Growth has been generating an enormous number of jobs in the UK, rather than showing up in rising real wages.
    Low pay Britain, subsidised by tax credits funded by the City. What happens when those City taxes dry up to a trickle?
  • Options
    stories of louis ck is alleged a massive perv is about as surprising as finding Lewis Hamilton ain't very keen on paying tax
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2017
    I am sure the arrival of millions of skilled and unskilled workers from eastern europe had no effect on wages...Where as until Merkel went nuts, it was widely reported germany had a massive shortage of young people to fill jobs, so much so lots of apprenticeships were going unfilled.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    Growth has been generating an enormous number of jobs in the UK, rather than showing up in rising real wages.
    But most people would prefer a pay rise for themselves over a job for another person.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Nothing to see here...

    @AlexSalmondShow

    Very pleased to announce The Alex Salmond Show, produced by Slàinte Meida, broadcasting each Thursday from 9pm on @RT_com


    @paulhutcheon

    The Alex Salmond Show on RT is produced by Slainte Media, a company that lists former @thesnp MP Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh as a shareholder
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    edited November 2017

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    Leavers won a referendum. Then ran away.
    Lol

    who's leading that big Remain charge ?

    Vince Zombie ? Jeremy Halfheart ? Eddie Izzard ?
    Happy with how Brexit is going?

    We are at midpoint between referendum and Leaving tommorow. 505 days since and 505 to go.

    Are we halfway there yet?

    Default unprepared WTO Brexit is the default and increasingly nailed on.
    Why wouldnt I be ?

    negotiations are under way and despite the remoaning progress is being made

    generally speaking I ignore brexit since no one commenting on here has a frigging clue what's happening

    your griping is just rem-onanism

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    Growth has been generating an enormous number of jobs in the UK, rather than showing up in rising real wages.
    Low pay Britain, subsidised by tax credits funded by the City. What happens when those City taxes dry up to a trickle?
    do they pay their taxes ?

  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    He is also a former Labour party member having campaigned for them in East Surrey against Geoffrey Howe!
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,859

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    Growth has been generating an enormous number of jobs in the UK, rather than showing up in rising real wages.
    Low pay Britain, subsidised by tax credits funded by the City. What happens when those City taxes dry up to a trickle?
    Britain is not a low pay country, and City taxes aren't about to dry up to a trickle. And of course, the City's financial transactions are backed up by the Bank of England guaranteeing it will act as lender of last resort - a subsidy, if you will.
  • Options
    TGOHF said:

    Nothing to see here...

    @AlexSalmondShow

    Very pleased to announce The Alex Salmond Show, produced by Slàinte Meida, broadcasting each Thursday from 9pm on @RT_com


    @paulhutcheon

    The Alex Salmond Show on RT is produced by Slainte Media, a company that lists former @thesnp MP Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh as a shareholder

    Trump's mate is also willing to take money from Putin's mouthpiece... Interesting times we live in.
  • Options
    So is anyone surprised that Gary Lineker is involved in another grotty tax avoidance scheme ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/09/revealed-scheme-gary-lineker-tax-barbados-home

    How about this for an idea - the BBC are barred from paying anyone involved with tax havens.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Nothing to see here...

    @AlexSalmondShow

    Very pleased to announce The Alex Salmond Show, produced by Slàinte Meida, broadcasting each Thursday from 9pm on @RT_com


    @paulhutcheon

    The Alex Salmond Show on RT is produced by Slainte Media, a company that lists former @thesnp MP Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh as a shareholder

    Trump's mate is also willing to take money from Putin's mouthpiece... Interesting times we live in.
    Nats are Putin's puppets.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    that;s the cost of betting the farm on financial services
    I agree. The EU27 have pursued a better economic policy, but fear not. We will shortly find out what a contraction of financial services looks like.
    hopefully it will force doctors to take a pay cut
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    Leavers won a referendum. Then ran away.
    Lol

    who's leading that big Remain charge ?

    Vince Zombie ? Jeremy Halfheart ? Eddie Izzard ?
    Happy with how Brexit is going?

    We are at midpoint between referendum and Leaving tommorow. 505 days since and 505 to go.

    Are we halfway there yet?

    Default unprepared WTO Brexit is the default and increasingly nailed on.
    Why wouldnt I be ?

    negotiations are under way and despite the remoaning progress is being made

    generally I speaking I ignore brexit since no one commenting on here has a frigging clue what's happening

    your griping is just rem-onanism

    No it isn't. I back hard Brexit, but merely want some plans made.

    This week the DExEU Minister said in Parliament that actually there are no 58 impact assessments and that is why they haven't been released.

    This would suggest to me that all is not going swimmingly.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,859

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    Growth has been generating an enormous number of jobs in the UK, rather than showing up in rising real wages.
    But most people would prefer a pay rise for themselves over a job for another person.
    I don't doubt that's right. If unemployment were 8%, but real wages had risen in line with GDP growth, the government would be more popular.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Stephen Daisley‏Verified account @JournoStephen 34s34 seconds ago
    More

    Russia's efforts at destabilising the UK through Scotland are not new. They opened a Sputnik office in Edinburgh last year and during the #indyref they churned out high volume of pro-independence content on RT.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    that;s the cost of betting the farm on financial services
    I agree. The EU27 have pursued a better economic policy, but fear not. We will shortly find out what a contraction of financial services looks like.
    hopefully it will force doctors to take a pay cut
    Or emigrate :)

    I may sit out Brexit somewhere warmer, after 3 decades in the NHS, I feel I have done my bit.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    Leavers won a referendum. Then ran away.
    Lol

    who's leading that big Remain charge ?

    Vince Zombie ? Jeremy Halfheart ? Eddie Izzard ?
    Happy with how Brexit is going?

    We are at midpoint between referendum and Leaving tommorow. 505 days since and 505 to go.

    Are we halfway there yet?

    Default unprepared WTO Brexit is the default and increasingly nailed on.
    Why wouldnt I be ?

    negotiations are under way and despite the remoaning progress is being made

    generally I speaking I ignore brexit since no one commenting on here has a frigging clue what's happening

    your griping is just rem-onanism

    No it isn't. I back hard Brexit, but merely want some plans made.

    This week the DExEU Minister said in Parliament that actually there are no 58 impact assessments and that is why they haven't been released.

    This would suggest to me that all is not going swimmingly.

    as I said no one of here has clue whats happening and negotiations have their ups and downs
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    Leavers won a referendum. Then ran away.
    Lol

    who's leading that big Remain charge ?

    Vince Zombie ? Jeremy Halfheart ? Eddie Izzard ?
    Happy with how Brexit is going?

    We are at midpoint between referendum and Leaving tommorow. 505 days since and 505 to go.

    Are we halfway there yet?

    Default unprepared WTO Brexit is the default and increasingly nailed on.
    Why wouldnt I be ?

    negotiations are under way and despite the remoaning progress is being made

    generally I speaking I ignore brexit since no one commenting on here has a frigging clue what's happening

    your griping is just rem-onanism

    No it isn't. I back hard Brexit, but merely want some plans made.

    This week the DExEU Minister said in Parliament that actually there are no 58 impact assessments and that is why they haven't been released.

    This would suggest to me that all is not going swimmingly.

    as I said no one of here has clue whats happening and negotiations have their ups and downs
    Speak for yourself! some of us do have a clue.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    that;s the cost of betting the farm on financial services
    I agree. The EU27 have pursued a better economic policy, but fear not. We will shortly find out what a contraction of financial services looks like.
    hopefully it will force doctors to take a pay cut
    Or emigrate :)

    I may sit out Brexit somewhere warmer, after 3 decades in the NHS, I feel I have done my bit.
    spoken like a Lineker
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,084
    edited November 2017

    @williamglenn is right, the Conservatives need to undergo a detoxification. Moves to right have now not worked in about three general elections in recent memory for them - 2001, 2005 and 2017. It is one thing for you not to win big with a right wing message against Blair’s centrist Labour Party, but to not win a majority and to actually lose to seats to the most left wing Labour leader in modern political history (who had such a chequered past) is truly something.

    Right wing rhetoric on immigration - the thing which, along with Brexit was supposed to lead to a super majority on the back of WWC voters in fact repelled voters as much as it attracted them, as it turns out not everyone is a great fan of the statements some Conservatives make about immigrants and their descendants.

    Sean_F says that most Conservative voters will go elsewhere, but that didn’t happen in 2015, when Cameron won the first Conservative majority in twenty-five years. I happen to think, reflecting on it more that Cameron’s dextofication hit the brakes when the party ended up becoming engulfed by the austerity agenda which was clearly not his original plan in 2006. But Cameron still attempted to make some improvements by marketing the Tories as a forward-looking party, and trying to persuade groups which had not traditionally voted Tory that there was a place for them in the party. Of course, a lot of this was all image to a degree - I never got the impression Cameron actually changed the minds of many Conservative activists/members, and there seemed to be a section of the party who always tolerated him at most. Brexit has revealed to us something that we all knew - that the old Tory party never really went away.

    Now the ‘Brexit’ Conservative Party appears to be representative of those who would like a world as designed by Paul Dacre. Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    Ironically the way to beat Corbyn or at least run him close is to have a conviction rightwinger who believes in what he says and believes in Brexit ie a Davis or a Rees Mogg not another establishment Remainer doing Britain down.

    Corbyn did better than he expected as he spoke with conviction, the Tories need to do the same. After all it was ultimately Thatcher who beat the left and won 3 general elections and beat Foot and Kinnock, after Heath's corporatist conservatism had been defeated at the polls when he tried to tame the unions.

    Against a centrist like Blair then a rightwinger would be less effective as the Labour Party was at least making moves to the centre and so the Tories could also do so, when the leader of the Labour Party is fighting day in day out to make Britain into a socialist state there is no alternative but to fight back on core conservative values with a fighter at the top.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    Leavers won a referendum. Then ran away.
    Lol

    who's leading that big Remain charge ?

    Vince Zombie ? Jeremy Halfheart ? Eddie Izzard ?
    Happy with how Brexit is going?

    We are at midpoint between referendum and Leaving tommorow. 505 days since and 505 to go.

    Are we halfway there yet?

    Default unprepared WTO Brexit is the default and increasingly nailed on.
    Why wouldnt I be ?

    negotiations are under way and despite the remoaning progress is being made

    generally I speaking I ignore brexit since no one commenting on here has a frigging clue what's happening

    your griping is just rem-onanism

    No it isn't. I back hard Brexit, but merely want some plans made.

    This week the DExEU Minister said in Parliament that actually there are no 58 impact assessments and that is why they haven't been released.

    This would suggest to me that all is not going swimmingly.

    as I said no one of here has clue whats happening and negotiations have their ups and downs
    Speak for yourself! some of us do have a clue.
    rofl

    in your dreams

    most of the commentary is specualtion and spin
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    Growth has been generating an enormous number of jobs in the UK, rather than showing up in rising real wages.
    But most people would prefer a pay rise for themselves over a job for another person.
    I don't doubt that's right. If unemployment were 8%, but real wages had risen in line with GDP growth, the government would be more popular.
    The people who are concerned with unemployment are the unemployed (less the layabouts within that group) and those who are afraid of becoming unemployed.

    At the moment that's a very small number.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352
    AndyJS said:

    Andrew Teale's excellent by-election review (which he does each week):

    https://britainelects.com/2017/11/07/previews-09-nov-2017/

    Charmingly written sketches.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    Leavers won a referendum. Then ran away.
    Lol

    who's leading that big Remain charge ?

    Vince Zombie ? Jeremy Halfheart ? Eddie Izzard ?
    Happy with how Brexit is going?

    We are at midpoint between referendum and Leaving tommorow. 505 days since and 505 to go.

    Are we halfway there yet?

    Default unprepared WTO Brexit is the default and increasingly nailed on.
    Why wouldnt I be ?

    negotiations are under way and despite the remoaning progress is being made

    generally I speaking I ignore brexit since no one commenting on here has a frigging clue what's happening

    your griping is just rem-onanism

    No it isn't. I back hard Brexit, but merely want some plans made.

    This week the DExEU Minister said in Parliament that actually there are no 58 impact assessments and that is why they haven't been released.

    This would suggest to me that all is not going swimmingly.

    as I said no one of here has clue whats happening and negotiations have their ups and downs
    Speak for yourself! some of us do have a clue.
    Surely the point was that we don't really know what is going on with negotiations because there's so much gamesmanship going on. It doesn't look like it is going very well to me, but is it as bad as it looks? People take leaks and biased quotes as gospel, nightmarish scenarios are presented, and I can believe that, but if reasonable progress is in fact made despite all this froth and negativity on the surface, any of us who got caught up in believing all we can see is all there is, will have been proven not to have a clue after all.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    that;s the cost of betting the farm on financial services
    I agree. The EU27 have pursued a better economic policy, but fear not. We will shortly find out what a contraction of financial services looks like.
    hopefully it will force doctors to take a pay cut
    Or emigrate :)

    I may sit out Brexit somewhere warmer, after 3 decades in the NHS, I feel I have done my bit.
    spoken like a Lineker
    A great son of Leicester :)

    I feel that I should do my bit to cut net immigration. If more of us were as selfless then the problem would be solved.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    Leavers won a referendum. Then ran away.
    Lol

    who's leading that big Remain charge ?

    Vince Zombie ? Jeremy Halfheart ? Eddie Izzard ?
    Happy with how Brexit is going?

    We are at midpoint between referendum and Leaving tommorow. 505 days since and 505 to go.

    Are we halfway there yet?

    Default unprepared WTO Brexit is the default and increasingly nailed on.
    Why wouldnt I be ?

    negotiations are under way and despite the remoaning progress is being made

    generally I speaking I ignore brexit since no one commenting on here has a frigging clue what's happening

    your griping is just rem-onanism

    No it isn't. I back hard Brexit, but merely want some plans made.

    This week the DExEU Minister said in Parliament that actually there are no 58 impact assessments and that is why they haven't been released.

    This would suggest to me that all is not going swimmingly.

    as I said no one of here has clue whats happening and negotiations have their ups and downs
    Speak for yourself! some of us do have a clue.
    rofl

    in your dreams

    most of the commentary is specualtion and spin
    And Yokel delivers pizza for a living.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352
    kle4 said:

    24th Edition Erskine May Pages 430-431 (I promise I won't overdo this, but unless things have advanced significantly since 2011, this was the official position)

    In principle, a Member is not permitted to read a speech, but may make reference to notes. Similarly, a member may read extracts from documents but such extract and quotations should be reasonably short. The purpose of this rule is to maintain the cut and thrust of debate, which depends upon successive speakers meeting in their speeches to some extent the arguments of earlier speeches; debate is more than a series of set speeches prepared beforehand without reference to each other. For the same reason, the Speaker has urged Members to remain in their places after they have spoken and to return to the House for the concluding speeches of a debate.

    (cut paragraph for space, about being present at start of debate, remaining as much as possible etc, making reference to the speeches of others - in line with that one's owns peech should not be all prepared and read out - and the select committee on modernization endorsing these principles)

    Unless appealed to, the Chair does not normally intervene to enforce the rule against reading a speech; and, unless there is good ground in the interests of the debate for intervening, the matter is usually passed off with a remark to the effect that the notes used by the honourable Member appear to be unusually full. The rule against reading speeches is in any case relaxed for opening speeches or whenever there is special reason for precision, as in important ministerial statements, notably on foreign affairs, in matters involving agreements with outside bodies or in highly technical bills. Even at a later stage, prepared statements on such subjects may be read without objection being taken, though they should not constitute an entire speech. The rule is also relaxed for Members making their maiden speech, about which guidance is now given to new Members. The reading of speeches is even less suited to a committee than to the House itself.

    In March 2011, the Speaker announced that, in the light of the recommendations of the Procedure Committee, he did not believe that the occupant of the Chair could reasonably prevent a Member from discreetly using a hand-held electronic device (such as a tablet) as an aide memoire while addressing the House.

    Oh, good response - I apologise. But I'm afraid I continue to maintain that it was commonplace.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,084

    AndyJS said:

    Andrew Teale's excellent by-election review (which he does each week):

    https://britainelects.com/2017/11/07/previews-09-nov-2017/

    Charmingly written sketches.
    Andrew was at Warwick University with me, a very knowledgeable guy
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    The funniest bit of that video has always been Theresa Villiers looking mortified.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    TGOHF said:

    TMerkel drops another notch 30% support for CDU

    45% support Jamaica coalition 52% against

    75% want new elections if coalition talks fail

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170476118/Union-stuerzt-auf-schlechtesten-Wert-seit-elf-Jahren.html

    DIsaster for Brexit as a weak Merkel is bad for Brexit.

    Had she won convincingly then obviously it would have been bad for Brext.
    Merkel looks after Germany and doesnt give a shit about anyone else

    it's why the EU is failing
    The only country worse than at real wage growth in the EU is Greece. Even Italy does better:

    https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/925294213369073669
    that;s the cost of betting the farm on financial services
    I agree. The EU27 have pursued a better economic policy, but fear not. We will shortly find out what a contraction of financial services looks like.
    hopefully it will force doctors to take a pay cut
    Or emigrate :)

    I may sit out Brexit somewhere warmer, after 3 decades in the NHS, I feel I have done my bit.
    spoken like a Lineker
    A great son of Leicester :)

    I feel that I should do my bit to cut net immigration. If more of us were as selfless then the problem would be solved.
    nothing a trip to Paradise couldnt solve

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4205880/Gary-Lineker-saves-fortune-avoiding-tax-schemes.html
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352
    Omnium said:


    Tastes vary. But in the end it usually comes down to what the neighbours are like.

    Quite right, and I'm sure that most politicians spend most of their time on this. Perhaps this is a good distraction in light of my previous post. It's not so though.

    Politicians need to stay in more!

    I cannot explain why the politician with the greatest support in the country is also the politician that would ruin the largest number of lives. (He might also temporarily boost the well-being of a very large number of lives, and in each and every case they'd have the rug taken away)

    Are we talking about the same thing? I was discussing childhood architecture.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Andrew Cooper’s (Cameron’s former head of strategy) tweet on May going to that banquet was golden:

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/928387441622437888

    It's surprising that someone who was "Cameron's head of strategy" dare stick his head above the parapet ever again. How did that strategy on the EU pan out, Andrew?
    Not really. Cameron at least won a majority something which May hasn’t done.
    Cameron at least won a majority

    and then he ran away

    Leavers won a referendum. Then ran away.
    Lol

    who's leading that big Remain charge ?

    Vince Zombie ? Jeremy Halfheart ? Eddie Izzard ?
    Happy with how Brexit is going?

    We are at midpoint between referendum and Leaving tommorow. 505 days since and 505 to go.

    Are we halfway there yet?

    Default unprepared WTO Brexit is the default and increasingly nailed on.
    Why wouldnt I be ?

    negotiations are under way and despite the remoaning progress is being made

    generally I speaking I ignore brexit since no one commenting on here has a frigging clue what's happening

    your griping is just rem-onanism

    No it isn't. I back hard Brexit, but merely want some plans made.

    This week the DExEU Minister said in Parliament that actually there are no 58 impact assessments and that is why they haven't been released.

    This would suggest to me that all is not going swimmingly.

    as I said no one of here has clue whats happening and negotiations have their ups and downs
    Speak for yourself! some of us do have a clue.
    rofl

    in your dreams

    most of the commentary is specualtion and spin
    And Yokel delivers pizza for a living.
    A civil servant spinning ? Noooo never..
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    edited November 2017

    kle4 said:

    b>using a hand-held electronic device (such as a tablet) as an aide memoire while addressing the House.

    Oh, good response - I apologise. But I'm afraid I continue to maintain that it was commonplace.
    (My copy of Erskine May remains one of the best gifts I have received in many a year)

    Oh, I don't doubt that it is - as it says right there, the Chair doesn't enforce it 'unless appealed to', and notes including on tablets is explicitly permitted - so it might be considered a sort of zombie convention, in that it exists, and they even took the time to reinforce in modern times they think it a good idea, but they still don't follow it.

    Having clerked many a meeting and advised many a chair (granted, not in as august a place as parliament) I suspect such a rule is only ever enforced where someone takes the piss - eg reads out a speech of such length, and in particularly brazen and robotic a fashion (not even opening with reference to some previous remarks made in the debate), that it has to be brought up.

    I still prefer the way the section on the Lords put it, about the use of written speeches being 'alien to the customs of the House and injurious to the conduct of its debates'.

    Please tell me though that the rule that ladies may wear hats, but men may not, is still enforced!
  • Options
    TGOHF said:

    Nothing to see here...

    @AlexSalmondShow

    Very pleased to announce The Alex Salmond Show, produced by Slàinte Meida, broadcasting each Thursday from 9pm on @RT_com


    @paulhutcheon

    The Alex Salmond Show on RT is produced by Slainte Media, a company that lists former @thesnp MP Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh as a shareholder

    George Galloway beat him to it :)
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2017
    @HYUFD Why would those who voted for Corbyn switch to voting for JRM? May was a Remainer, but she totally embraced Brexit during the GE. She was willing to implement a Hard Brexit, just as a true Brexiteer would be. The idea that a more hardline stance on Brexit would have delivered a majority goes against the information we know about the GE: that a significant number of Conservative Remainers switched to Labour, and that voters under 45 moved towards Labour in significant numbers, many of which voted Remain and dislike the social conservatism associated with the Brexit project. Also I don’t see JRM appealing to the economic concerns of these voters re the cost of living and home ownership.

    Corbyn did better not just ‘because he spoke with conviction’ but because he is was able to mobilise those disaffected by the current economic status quo, those who were socially liberal and disliked Brexit and those - particularly students - who simply felt that the establishment were not listening to their concerns, into an effective electoral coalition. It remains to be seen just how a right winger can expand the Conservative’s coalition of suppport as Corbyn did with Labour.
This discussion has been closed.