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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today could have been the day when BoJo’s dream of becoming PM

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  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Virginia: 24% in, and Northam's lead up to 3%.

    29% and the lead is down to 2%...
    If only AndyJS had done a spreadsheet... :)
    35% and the lead is 3.4%.

    I think this ends up being a fairly comfortable Dem hold.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,032
    Dems winning younger, female, better educated and non-White in Virginia. No surprise, but turnout is all.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,032
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    VA is already 2.7% reported (69/2566) - polling station count of course as with most countries.

    And, Northam leads 50/49 which seems good for the Dems on what are surely rural and more likely to be GOP-leaning precincts?

    You might be right. 294 precincts in, Northam 49.05%, Gillespie 49.87%. Not looking good for Gillespie.
    ...and there's crossover. 497pcts, Northam 50.14%, Gillespie 48.78%
    ...627pcts, Northam 50.92%, Gillespie 48.00%
    ...891pcts, Northam 51.13%, Gillespie 47.79% ...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    HYUFD said:

    Virginia (30% in)

    Northam 50%
    Gillespie 48.8%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/2017/results/virginia-governor

    CNN is about five minutes behind the official site. See: http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017 November General/Site/Statewide.html
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Sean_F said:

    murali_s said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What's Patel done that's so bad?

    Being Priti Patel for starters...

    Also clandestine meetings with officials of a rogue state.
    Tories support Israel.
    Tories support a pariah nation.
    What a contemptible comment, verging on the anti Semitic.

    That 'pariah nation' is the only true and ancient homeland the Jewish people have after 6 million of them were murdered in the Holocaust.
    He referred to a nation. I'm fed up how any reference to the Israeli government's detestable policies is immediately met with cries of anti-Semitism. Benjamin Netanyahu is a pariah, Yitzhak Rabin was a good and great man.
    Netanyahu is trying to prevent Israel being obliterated by Hezbollah and Hamas, neither of whom recognise its right to exist.
    As is the Israeli Labor Party and a host of smaller parties not in Government. There are plenty of Israelis who don't have much time for Bibi.
    Bibi is the man the Israelis themselves elected as their PM
    Indeed they did. However, as with any democratic leader there is room for an opposition who disagree. ILP are not seeking Israel's destruction.
    You fight your corner with admirable tenacity, and unfailing civility, as always.
    However. wrt Ms. Patel, it nay be that you are fighting a losing battle.
    Smithson Jr., not one of nature's Crbynistas can see the problem.
    Time for a tactical withdrawal to fight another day?
    There can never be a tactical withdrawal to abandon Israel to its fate, as there would be no other day to fight as a result.
    He's talking about Ms Patel's role in the cabinet! (Which is NOTHING TO DO WITH ISRAEL.)
    She is one of Israel's staunchest defenders in the Cabinet.
  • Options
    Yep this is looking very good for Northam - 51/48 & 27K ahead with 35% counted.

    Even allowing for any early voting and obv polling station counts, 800K counted in 50 mins is very impressive.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Virginia (30% in)

    Northam 50%
    Gillespie 48.8%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/2017/results/virginia-governor

    CNN is about five minutes behind the official site. See: http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017 November General/Site/Statewide.html
    I have got that too but prefer CNN as it always has an excellent coloured map of all the counties coming in as well.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    HYUFD said:

    She is one of Israel's staunchest defenders in the Cabinet.

    So what?

    Ignoring the fact that the Conservative Party is (and should be) staunchly pro-Israel, she has:

    - run a parallel foreign policy
    - involving meeting with senior politicians and the PM of another country
    - with donors present
    - then lied about it
    - and then lied again
    - and again

    Whether she is pro- or anti- Israel is completely besides the point. The point is that ANY member of my organisation that behaved as she had would have been fired.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2017
    Usually the last 10% or so to be counted in Virigina benefits the Democrats because it comes from the liberal area near Washington DC. (You'd expect that area to count fastest but it's often the slowest for some reason).
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    Virgina, 41% in and Northam has a 3.5% lead. He would need to be almost six points behind in the remaining 59%. Given that the more rural parts have declared first, I think he's probably won this by five percentage points.

    I'm calling it for Northam.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,032
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    294 precincts in, Northam 49.05%, Gillespie 49.87%. Not looking good for Gillespie.

    ...and there's crossover. 497pcts, Northam 50.14%, Gillespie 48.78%
    ...627pcts, Northam 50.92%, Gillespie 48.00%
    ...891pcts, Northam 51.13%, Gillespie 47.79% ...
    ...1050pcts, Northam 51.21%, Gillespie 47.70% ...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074

    Yep this is looking very good for Northam - 51/48 & 27K ahead with 35% counted.

    Even allowing for any early voting and obv polling station counts, 800K counted in 50 mins is very impressive.

    Oh the votes were all counted yesterday. Today is just the theatrics.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Yep this is looking very good for Northam - 51/48 & 27K ahead with 35% counted.

    Even allowing for any early voting and obv polling station counts, 800K counted in 50 mins is very impressive.

    Oh the votes were all counted yesterday. Today is just the theatrics.
    Hmmm I'm sure some of them were still being cast just over an hour ago....!!
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,032
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    She is one of Israel's staunchest defenders in the Cabinet.

    So what?

    Ignoring the fact that the Conservative Party is (and should be) staunchly pro-Israel, she has:

    - run a parallel foreign policy
    - involving meeting with senior politicians and the PM of another country
    - with donors present
    - then lied about it
    - and then lied again
    - and again

    Whether she is pro- or anti- Israel is completely besides the point. The point is that ANY member of my organisation that behaved as she had would have been fired.
    And, I hope fired at the first of your bullet points. She works for TMay, and by extension HM The Queen, not for her own personal preferment, or particular hobby horse,
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    She is one of Israel's staunchest defenders in the Cabinet.

    So what?

    Ignoring the fact that the Conservative Party is (and should be) staunchly pro-Israel, she has:

    - run a parallel foreign policy
    - involving meeting with senior politicians and the PM of another country
    - with donors present
    - then lied about it
    - and then lied again
    - and again

    Whether she is pro- or anti- Israel is completely besides the point. The point is that ANY member of my organisation that behaved as she had would have been fired.
    And, I hope fired at the first of your bullet points. She works for TMay, and by extension HM The Queen, not for her own personal preferment, or particular hobby horse,
    Quite.

    Bullet point 4 (and 4 alone) has gotten ministers fired in the past.
    Lying to the PM a single time has gotten ministers fired in the past.

    I'm staggered anyone thinks she should remain in place.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,155
    edited November 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Yep this is looking very good for Northam - 51/48 & 27K ahead with 35% counted.

    Even allowing for any early voting and obv polling station counts, 800K counted in 50 mins is very impressive.

    Oh the votes were all counted yesterday. Today is just the theatrics.
    Those counts are tough to do because you have to weight them to account for the relative status of each lizard
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    46% in, and the lead is up to 4%.

    It's over boys. Northam has won.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    CNN projects the Democrats have gained New Jersey and Phil Murphy will succeed Chris Christie as Governor.
    http://www.freeintertv.com/view/id-200
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,032

    Yep this is looking very good for Northam - 51/48 & 27K ahead with 35% counted.

    Even allowing for any early voting and obv polling station counts, 800K counted in 50 mins is very impressive.

    The results from each precinct is phoned in by the precinct captain and there are thousands of precincts, so there's a lot of parallel processing going on.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gillespie is 10 to 1 on Betfair.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074

    rcs1000 said:

    Yep this is looking very good for Northam - 51/48 & 27K ahead with 35% counted.

    Even allowing for any early voting and obv polling station counts, 800K counted in 50 mins is very impressive.

    Oh the votes were all counted yesterday. Today is just the theatrics.
    Hmmm I'm sure some of them were still being cast just over an hour ago....!!
    You don't seriously think those are the votes that are counted, do you?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    AndyJS said:

    Gillespie is 10 to 1 on Betfair.

    I'll offer you 20s
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    Being in America right now (Cambridge, MA) it's weird how non-partisan all the (admittedly local) elections are. People all over the place holding signs for candidates and none of them are using a party label, or even showing off the support of a pressure group or something.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    With 52% in the lead is steady at 4%. Gillespie needs to be more than 8% ahead in the remainder.

  • Options
    DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 712
    edited November 2017
    viewcode said:

    Yep this is looking very good for Northam - 51/48 & 27K ahead with 35% counted.

    Even allowing for any early voting and obv polling station counts, 800K counted in 50 mins is very impressive.

    The results from each precinct is phoned in by the precinct captain and there are thousands of precincts, so there's a lot of parallel processing going on.
    Indeed yes - it makes the whole thing fast, this is very quick by international standards too (presumably electronic voting/counting here), if VA was a small country it would be in the fastest counting anywhere.

    I wonder how long before one of the networks calls Virginia for Northam and what his final margin will be. Of course Hillary carried it by 5 points a year ago.

    For all that it's always great fun following almost 40 different countries, I still really love US election nights.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,032
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    294 precincts in, Northam 49.05%, Gillespie 49.87%. Not looking good for Gillespie.

    ...and there's crossover. 497pcts, Northam 50.14%, Gillespie 48.78%
    ...627pcts, Northam 50.92%, Gillespie 48.00%
    ...891pcts, Northam 51.13%, Gillespie 47.79% ...
    ...1050pcts, Northam 51.21%, Gillespie 47.70% ...
    ...1332pcts, Northam 51.35%, Gillespie 47.44% ...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    She is one of Israel's staunchest defenders in the Cabinet.

    So what?

    Ignoring the fact that the Conservative Party is (and should be) staunchly pro-Israel, she has:

    - run a parallel foreign policy
    - involving meeting with senior politicians and the PM of another country
    - with donors present
    - then lied about it
    - and then lied again
    - and again

    Whether she is pro- or anti- Israel is completely besides the point. The point is that ANY member of my organisation that behaved as she had would have been fired.
    She met to discuss areas covering her brief and as you say the Tory Party is pro Israel so there is no 'parallel foreign policy' there.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    According to 538, the dems seem to be having a very good night in general.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    61% in Virginia

    Northam 51.2%
    Gillespie 47.6%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/2017/results/virginia-governor

    Looks like the Democrats have had a reasonably good night and taken both the Governors races this evening. Goodnight
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    CNN calls it.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,032
    cnn projected Dem win in Va.
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    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Yep this is looking very good for Northam - 51/48 & 27K ahead with 35% counted.

    Even allowing for any early voting and obv polling station counts, 800K counted in 50 mins is very impressive.

    Oh the votes were all counted yesterday. Today is just the theatrics.
    Hmmm I'm sure some of them were still being cast just over an hour ago....!!
    You don't seriously think those are the votes that are counted, do you?
    Could be - depends where they are. Esp if they have electronic voting/counting - but yes obv any early votes will be released first. But at this rate it could be all counted in 2/2.5 hours.

    If it's a small precinct then surely they'll already have declared their result, which will include votes counted up to 7pm EST latest.
  • Options
    CNN calls VA for Northam.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,032

    According to 538, the dems seem to be having a very good night in general.

    Donny got the vote out? A perennial Dem. problem.
    Fortunately he has 280 characters now to frame his response...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    She is one of Israel's staunchest defenders in the Cabinet.

    So what?

    Ignoring the fact that the Conservative Party is (and should be) staunchly pro-Israel, she has:

    - run a parallel foreign policy
    - involving meeting with senior politicians and the PM of another country
    - with donors present
    - then lied about it
    - and then lied again
    - and again

    Whether she is pro- or anti- Israel is completely besides the point. The point is that ANY member of my organisation that behaved as she had would have been fired.
    She met to discuss areas covering her brief and as you say the Tory Party is pro Israel so there is no 'parallel foreign policy' there.
    If she had done that on a DfID trip, it would have been fine.

    She did not. She did it while pretending to be on holiday, and made representations that were not official government policy. With donors in the room.

    And then lied about it.

    It doesn't matter that this is Israel, or that she is a friend of Israel. It doesn't matter which country she was having discussions with. In any commercial organisation she would have been fired for her behaviour. (And many, many ministers have been fired for less.)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184
    edited November 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    She is one of Israel's staunchest defenders in the Cabinet.

    So what?

    Ignoring the fact that the Conservative Party is (and should be) staunchly pro-Israel, she has:

    - run a parallel foreign policy
    - involving meeting with senior politicians and the PM of another country
    - with donors present
    - then lied about it
    - and then lied again
    - and again

    Whether she is pro- or anti- Israel is completely besides the point. The point is that ANY member of my organisation that behaved as she had would have been fired.
    She met to discuss areas covering her brief and as you say the Tory Party is pro Israel so there is no 'parallel foreign policy' there.
    If she had done that on a DfID trip, it would have been fine.

    She did not. She did it while pretending to be on holiday, and made representations that were not official government policy. With donors in the room.

    And then lied about it.

    It doesn't matter that this is Israel, or that she is a friend of Israel. It doesn't matter which country she was having discussions with. In any commercial organisation she would have been fired for her behaviour. (And many, many ministers have been fired for less.)
    She made representations entirely in accordance with her brief.

    Politics also has not and never will be run in the same way as running a business (ask Mitt Romney), politics has ideology at its heart and Patel is entirely in accordance with most Tory members and voters in her support for Israel (support which was predicated on aid for victims of the Syrian civil war, a humanitarian not warlike aim).
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    Lead up to almost 5% with two-thirds counted...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    She is one of Israel's staunchest defenders in the Cabinet.

    So what?

    Ignoring the fact that the Conservative Party is (and should be) staunchly pro-Israel, she has:

    - run a parallel foreign policy
    - involving meeting with senior politicians and the PM of another country
    - with donors present
    - then lied about it
    - and then lied again
    - and again

    Whether she is pro- or anti- Israel is completely besides the point. The point is that ANY member of my organisation that behaved as she had would have been fired.
    She met to discuss areas covering her brief and as you say the Tory Party is pro Israel so there is no 'parallel foreign policy' there.
    If she had done that on a DfID trip, it would have been fine.

    She did not. She did it while pretending to be on holiday, and made representations that were not official government policy. With donors in the room.

    And then lied about it.

    It doesn't matter that this is Israel, or that she is a friend of Israel. It doesn't matter which country she was having discussions with. In any commercial organisation she would have been fired for her behaviour. (And many, many ministers have been fired for less.)
    She made representations entirely in accordance with her brief.

    Politics also has not and never will be run in the same way as running a business (ask Mitt Romney), politics has ideology at its heart and Patel is entirely in accordance with most Tory members and voters in her support for Israel (support which was predicated on aid for victims of the Syrian civil war, a humanitarian not warlike aim).
    HYUFD her views on Israel are in accordance with my views too!

    The question is: is there anything she could do that would cause you to think should resign?

    Is it OK to lie to the PM? How many times is OK?

    Is it OK to bring donors along to meetings with foreign leaders?


  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,032
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    294 precincts in, Northam 49.05%, Gillespie 49.87%. Not looking good for Gillespie.

    ...and there's crossover. 497pcts, Northam 50.14%, Gillespie 48.78%
    ...627pcts, Northam 50.92%, Gillespie 48.00%
    ...891pcts, Northam 51.13%, Gillespie 47.79% ...
    ...1050pcts, Northam 51.21%, Gillespie 47.70% ...
    ...1332pcts, Northam 51.35%, Gillespie 47.44% ...
    ...1784pcts, Northam 52.05%, Gillespie 46.76% ...

    Pause.

    Yep, he's deader than corduroy... :)
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,391
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    She is one of Israel's staunchest defenders in the Cabinet.

    So what?

    Ignoring the fact that the Conservative Party is (and should be) staunchly pro-Israel, she has:

    - run a parallel foreign policy
    - involving meeting with senior politicians and the PM of another country
    - with donors present
    - then lied about it
    - and then lied again
    - and again

    Whether she is pro- or anti- Israel is completely besides the point. The point is that ANY member of my organisation that behaved as she had would have been fired.
    She met to discuss areas covering her brief and as you say the Tory Party is pro Israel so there is no 'parallel foreign policy' there.
    If she had done that on a DfID trip, it would have been fine.

    She did not. She did it while pretending to be on holiday, and made representations that were not official government policy. With donors in the room.

    And then lied about it.

    It doesn't matter that this is Israel, or that she is a friend of Israel. It doesn't matter which country she was having discussions with. In any commercial organisation she would have been fired for her behaviour. (And many, many ministers have been fired for less.)
    She made representations entirely in accordance with her brief.

    Politics also has not and never will be run in the same way as running a business (ask Mitt Romney), politics has ideology at its heart and Patel is entirely in accordance with most Tory members and voters in her support for Israel (support which was predicated on aid for victims of the Syrian civil war, a humanitarian not warlike aim).
    HYUFD her views on Israel are in accordance with my views too!

    The question is: is there anything she could do that would cause you to think should resign?

    Is it OK to lie to the PM? How many times is OK?

    Is it OK to bring donors along to meetings with foreign leaders?


    Indeed, the point is you can't have ministers freelancing on foreign policy because often you have to act with sensitivity to achieve your aims. I'm generally pro-Israel, but there's a reason ministers tread carefully. In this case, the aid would have been deployed in the Golan Heights - which the UK doesn't recognise as Israeli and so would have contravened UK policy. You can quite easily end up tying yourself in knots or poisoning delicate diplomatic situations.

    It's why there's a protocol, which Patel appears to have rode roughshod over. It's cut and dried, in normal times her feet wouldn't have touched the ground - but being pro-Brexit apparently allows you to behave with impunity due to the PM's weakened state and the absolute state of the Tory party pursuing it.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,318
    After 95%:

    Northam - 53.42%
    Gillespie - 45.39%

    So much wider margin in the end.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,074
    To my mind, this is what really finishes her.

    It's that she hasn't come clean - to her own PM or the FCO - about the meetings she'd had. If everything had been disclosed back in August, when the story first broke, she'd probably have survived. But lying by omission, again and again and again, surely makes her position untenable.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,922
    Dems win Virginia Governor by approx 9 points.
    By contrast Hilary won by 5.4 a year back, the RCP poll average was 3.3 lead to Dems.

    Looks a very good result for them all in all.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,922
    rcs1000 said:

    To my mind, this is what really finishes her.

    It's that she hasn't come clean - to her own PM or the FCO - about the meetings she'd had. If everything had been disclosed back in August, when the story first broke, she'd probably have survived. But lying by omission, again and again and again, surely makes her position untenable.
    Her position was untenable before. TM doesn’t want to sack her.
    I still don’t really understand what she was doing or why she was there.
    Was she there to discuss what future PM Patil would do for Israel?
    Why risk your career for this?

    I suspect this story won’t have much traction with the public.
    Us talking to an ally unofficially probably doesn’t seem that newsworthy and there is a level of boredom around Arab Israeli conflict for most.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rkrkrk said:

    Dems win Virginia Governor by approx 9 points.
    By contrast Hilary won by 5.4 a year back, the RCP poll average was 3.3 lead to Dems.

    Looks a very good result for them all in all.

    Very good result for Dems across the board in VA - not just Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, but also in the State legislature.

    9 points was the outlier of the polls over the weekend. Looks like the black vote was angrier than the Trump vote, braving a horrible day's weather (driving cold rain all day - which would normally be assumed to help the GOP).

    First transgender person elected to State House. Firsts for Asian and Latina women getting elected to the State house too.
  • Options
    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    To my mind, this is what really finishes her.

    It's that she hasn't come clean - to her own PM or the FCO - about the meetings she'd had. If everything had been disclosed back in August, when the story first broke, she'd probably have survived. But lying by omission, again and again and again, surely makes her position untenable.
    I suspect this story won’t have much traction with the public.
    Us talking to an ally unofficially probably doesn’t seem that newsworthy and there is a level of boredom around Arab Israeli conflict for most.
    I agree it won’t have much traction - it’s not as though she’s undermining a competent and effective Foreign Secretary.

    May however should sack her pour encourager les autres otherwise it’s open season on Foreign Policy which could give Boris just the excuse he is looking for to resign and blame the PM.

    She’s got to sack both.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,922
    MTimT said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Dems win Virginia Governor by approx 9 points.
    By contrast Hilary won by 5.4 a year back, the RCP poll average was 3.3 lead to Dems.

    Looks a very good result for them all in all.

    Very good result for Dems across the board in VA - not just Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, but also in the State legislature.

    9 points was the outlier of the polls over the weekend. Looks like the black vote was angrier than the Trump vote, braving a horrible day's weather (driving cold rain all day - which would normally be assumed to help the GOP).

    First transgender person elected to State House. Firsts for Asian and Latina women getting elected to the State house too.
    One interesting thing I saw is Northam did much better than Clinton with white women voters.
    Results have a massive implication for gerrymandering given 2020 census.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,922

    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    To my mind, this is what really finishes her.

    It's that she hasn't come clean - to her own PM or the FCO - about the meetings she'd had. If everything had been disclosed back in August, when the story first broke, she'd probably have survived. But lying by omission, again and again and again, surely makes her position untenable.
    I suspect this story won’t have much traction with the public.
    Us talking to an ally unofficially probably doesn’t seem that newsworthy and there is a level of boredom around Arab Israeli conflict for most.
    I agree it won’t have much traction - it’s not as though she’s undermining a competent and effective Foreign Secretary.

    May however should sack her pour encourager les autres otherwise it’s open season on Foreign Policy which could give Boris just the excuse he is looking for to resign and blame the PM.

    She’s got to sack both.
    I’ve just laid Patil at 1.29 as next to go from Cabinet.

    Given the shortage of leavers to replace them with - it almost seems as though the simultaneous screw up is a great defence for Brexiteers. She should sack both but can’t.

    If Boris had apologised and done all he could to remedy I would have accepted that he misspoke.
    Patil’s actions are far more insidious as I see it.

    The other point is May would replace either with future leadership rivals.
    She may see Boris and Patil as weak enough to beat now.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rcs1000 said:

    To my mind, this is what really finishes her.

    It's that she hasn't come clean - to her own PM or the FCO - about the meetings she'd had. If everything had been disclosed back in August, when the story first broke, she'd probably have survived. But lying by omission, again and again and again, surely makes her position untenable.
    It was a holiday. Really ? Paid for by herself - meaning not by the government. I am pretty sure about two things.

    1. It was not a holiday [ with family ? ].
    2. Paid for by some lobby group.

    What some PBTories see in her, heaven knows. I presume she ticks, at least, one box. She is also a hanger. That has an appeal too.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/07/priti-patel-wanted-to-send-aid-money-to-israeli-army-no-10-confirms

    This is becoming like Trump and Russia. In her case, it's Israel.

    Why does the SoS for DfID need to meet Israelis so often ? Future election funds ? Did she start to believe some of the hype herself ?
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