Surely the PM can just classify them as cabinet papers, or top secret?
I’d have them marked TS and released completely redacted bar the title of each document.
The respect for Parliamentary sovereignty among these Leavers is flaky. It's almost as if that isn't the real motivation of many Leavers.
Parliamentary sovereignty shall thankfully return on the day we leave the EU.
I’ve no objection at all with allowing the viewing of sensitive negotiation documents under Privy Council terms, but that’s not what Kier Starmer wants. He wants us to go into the most difficult and delicate negotiations in decades with all our cards face up on the table.
So why do you think JRM supports their publication?
Because he doesn't know what's in them, and he doesn't have to negotiate the settlement.
Strategists will recognise the Empty Fortress Strategyin the government's approach to Brexit. China's most famous general attempted to hold a defenceless city against superior forces by opening the gates and partying on the walls. His opponents, knowing how crafty he was, suspected a trap and passed by the city, as Zhuge Liang knew they would do.
The flaw in this plan is that the EU know Brexit is empty and think May and Davis are deluded, not cunning.
Releasing the papers won't make the slightest difference to the negotiations with the EU. They may or may not make a difference to the government's ability to fool a part of the population.
Well if it will make no difference to the negotation, then they might as well be kept secret then.
Politicians will score points. For everyone else there is maybe value in knowing what's coming down the pike, so you can flee do something about it.
Incidentally, Theresa May was asked at her last press conference, if it is so important for the government to prepare for a no deal, what would she say to businesses that might also want to prepare for a no deal by moving their operations away from the UK. She didn't answer.
Exactly. These assessments are needed so that the good folk of Britain can make important decisions about their own lives.
So why do you think JRM supports their publication?
As noted upthread, JRM doesn't care if the negotiations crash and burn. He would be delighted with no deal
So you accept that releasing the government’s papers on Brexit in advance of the talks won’t exactly help our negotiatiors to get a good deal?
The only possible way that publishing these assessments could logically affect the negotiations is by revealing just how empty our negotiating hand is. The mere fact of the government refusing to publish already reveals that. Or would do, except the EU know our hand is empty anyway.
If the publications were surprisingly positive about Brexit, do you think the government would still refuse to publish them?
I think the Irish border issue will be finessed. The point is a valid one but it is likely to be resolved as a permanent border (and undesirable from the writer's POV). I read somewhere that the Irish question has been moved to round two of the Brexit talks - ie it will be tacked along with the transition period and future trading relationship and not with the preliminary issues of citizenship and money.
The important point to recognise is that the border situation regards FOM is a very minor issue - the border as regards to Customs (and other trade regs vis SM) is a bigger one. It's not insurmountable for bulk carriage of finished or part finished manufactured products (via TIR carnet) but smuggling would have to be largely ignored on a small industrial scale. The Eu isn't likely to want that.
Agriculture is going to be horrible for Ireland if there isn't a deal. They will simply lose their UK markets, and the cross border trade on the Island will be a nightmare of complexity and costs. They also sell a lot of digital product into the UK, and many companies have offshored there due to low taxes. If Ireland's position is - get the border right or we'll veto moving on, the pain they will inflict on themselves too if it all goes wrong by accident will be absolutely terrible.
Surely the PM can just classify them as cabinet papers, or top secret?
I’d have them marked TS and released completely redacted bar the title of each document.
The respect for Parliamentary sovereignty among these Leavers is flaky. It's almost as if that isn't the real motivation of many Leavers.
Parliamentary sovereignty shall thankfully return on the day we leave the EU.
I’ve no objection at all with allowing the viewing of sensitive negotiation documents under Privy Council terms, but that’s not what Kier Starmer wants. He wants us to go into the most difficult and delicate negotiations in decades with all our cards face up on the table.
So why do you think JRM supports their publication?
Because he doesn't know what's in them, and he doesn't have to negotiate the settlement.
You hate Parliamentary sovereignty, noted.
Don't be so blinkered. Government advice, and how it is held and circulated has never been a position based on Parliamentary Sovereignty, which is all about how law is made, who makes it and how it may be amended or repealed.
Surely the PM can just classify them as cabinet papers, or top secret?
I’d have them marked TS and released completely redacted bar the title of each document.
The respect for Parliamentary sovereignty among these Leavers is flaky. It's almost as if that isn't the real motivation of many Leavers.
Parliamentary sovereignty shall thankfully return on the day we leave the EU.
I’ve no objection at all with allowing the viewing of sensitive negotiation documents under Privy Council terms, but that’s not what Kier Starmer wants. He wants us to go into the most difficult and delicate negotiations in decades with all our cards face up on the table.
So why do you think JRM supports their publication?
Because he doesn't know what's in them, and he doesn't have to negotiate the settlement.
You hate Parliamentary sovereignty, noted.
Don't be so blinkered. Government advice, and how it is held and circulated has never been a position based on Parliamentary Sovereignty, which is all about how law is made, who makes it and how it may be amended or repealed.
Just imagine if the legal advice and dossiers had been published in full prior to the invasion of Iraq.
Surely the PM can just classify them as cabinet papers, or top secret?
I’d have them marked TS and released completely redacted bar the title of each document.
The respect for Parliamentary sovereignty among these Leavers is flaky. It's almost as if that isn't the real motivation of many Leavers.
Parliamentary sovereignty shall thankfully return on the day we leave the EU.
I’ve no objection at all with allowing the viewing of sensitive negotiation documents under Privy Council terms, but that’s not what Kier Starmer wants. He wants us to go into the most difficult and delicate negotiations in decades with all our cards face up on the table.
So why do you think JRM supports their publication?
Because he doesn't know what's in them, and he doesn't have to negotiate the settlement.
You hate Parliamentary sovereignty, noted.
Don't be so blinkered. Government advice, and how it is held and circulated has never been a position based on Parliamentary Sovereignty, which is all about how law is made, who makes it and how it may be amended or repealed.
Just imagine if the legal advice and dossiers had been published in full prior to the invasion of Iraq.
That's why governments should control the armed forces, not parliament. Parliament can probably never be given enough information to give an informed vote on action without breaching information secrecy to our disadvantage.
Surely the PM can just classify them as cabinet papers, or top secret?
I’d have them marked TS and released completely redacted bar the title of each document.
The respect for Parliamentary sovereignty among these Leavers is flaky. It's almost as if that isn't the real motivation of many Leavers.
Parliamentary sovereignty shall thankfully return on the day we leave the EU.
I’ve no objection at all with allowing the viewing of sensitive negotiation documents under Privy Council terms, but that’s not what Kier Starmer wants. He wants us to go into the most difficult and delicate negotiations in decades with all our cards face up on the table.
So why do you think JRM supports their publication?
Because he doesn't know what's in them, and he doesn't have to negotiate the settlement.
You hate Parliamentary sovereignty, noted.
Don't be so blinkered. Government advice, and how it is held and circulated has never been a position based on Parliamentary Sovereignty, which is all about how law is made, who makes it and how it may be amended or repealed.
Just imagine if the legal advice and dossiers had been published in full prior to the invasion of Iraq.
That's why governments should control the armed forces, not parliament. Parliament can probably never be given enough information to give an informed vote on action without breaching information secrecy to our disadvantage.
Once again you're showing your contempt for having a sovereign Parliament.
Very unlikely. Which is why May will not survive until Brexit day and the scenario we discussed earlier, in which Corbyn succeeds her as PM without an election, is a serious possibility.
Surely the PM can just classify them as cabinet papers, or top secret?
I’d have them marked TS and released completely redacted bar the title of each document.
The respect for Parliamentary sovereignty among these Leavers is flaky. It's almost as if that isn't the real motivation of many Leavers.
Parliamentary sovereignty shall thankfully return on the day we leave the EU.
I’ve no objection at all with allowing the viewing of sensitive negotiation documents under Privy Council terms, but that’s not what Kier Starmer wants. He wants us to go into the most difficult and delicate negotiations in decades with all our cards face up on the table.
So why do you think JRM supports their publication?
Because he doesn't know what's in them, and he doesn't have to negotiate the settlement.
You hate Parliamentary sovereignty, noted.
Don't be so blinkered. Government advice, and how it is held and circulated has never been a position based on Parliamentary Sovereignty, which is all about how law is made, who makes it and how it may be amended or repealed.
Just imagine if the legal advice and dossiers had been published in full prior to the invasion of Iraq.
That's why governments should control the armed forces, not parliament. Parliament can probably never be given enough information to give an informed vote on action without breaching information secrecy to our disadvantage.
Once again you're showing your contempt for having a sovereign Parliament.
Isn't Parliament full of serial-troughers and gropers?
As the second reading vote on the EU withdrawal bill demonstrated - when it comes to the crunch almost certainly yes in the Conmons. We forget that there are a number of pro leave Labour MPs which to some extent counterbalance the Tory rebels.
There may be late nights and multiple votes - but in the end it will almost certainly get its way. A potential election, losing your seat and Corbyn as PM may also be a powerful control on Tory MPs in the end.
Mr. Eagles, do you think we only had Parliamentary sovereignty in and after 2003? If not, your comment makes no sense. If so, you have a unique and challenging grasp of reality.
Mr. Eagles, you're favouring a Blairite initiative over centuries of precedence and tradition.
Either you believe in Parliamentary sovereignty or you do not.
I would not sacrifice a single soldier for the sake of Blair's intellectual vanity and cowardice. He was looking for cover for an action that was not warranted - at no point did he attempt to seek a meaningful vote. He put the troops in place, Parliament had no choice but to vote to continue, otherwise we would have never been able to extend power in that manner ever again. We would be Switzerland on Sea.
Mr. Eagles, do you think we only had Parliamentary sovereignty in and after 2003? If not, your comment makes no sense. If so, you have a unique and challenging grasp of reality.
Today you've said you don't approve of two examples of Parliament being sovereign.
IIRC you seemed to say in the past Parliament being sovereign was one of the reasons why you backed Leave, I'm struggling to reconcile your position.
National Statistics showed that in 2016 the UK exported £145.5bn of goods to the EU, up from £133.5bn in 2015. The EU accounted for 48.2% of UK goods exports, up from 46.9% in 2015.
However, the UK’s appetite for imports from the EU increased, sending the value of EU goods sold in Britain up by 7.1%, more than offset the increase in EU exports last year. As a result, the UK’s trade in goods deficit with the EU widened by £9.4bn to £96.5bn.
National Statistics showed that in 2016 the UK exported £145.5bn of goods to the EU, up from £133.5bn in 2015. The EU accounted for 48.2% of UK goods exports, up from 46.9% in 2015.
However, the UK’s appetite for imports from the EU increased, sending the value of EU goods sold in Britain up by 7.1%, more than offset the increase in EU exports last year. As a result, the UK’s trade in goods deficit with the EU widened by £9.4bn to £96.5bn.
I'm laying JC, JRM and Ruth. Somehow 3/top 6 are overpriced...
Edit- or I have completely misread this market. It's happened before...
JC/JRM, yes. I was laying Ruth but have changed my mind on that.
My big positives across this and the Tory leader market are Davis, Raab, Hunt & McVey, with smaller plusses on some of the other next gen'ers.
Why did you change your mind on Ruth? Even if the govt lasts until 2022 - will that be time for her to find a seat? She surely would only go for a Scottish Westminster seat?
Ruth cannot stand for Westminster until either one of the following happens: IndyRef2 is held and Yes is defeated by larger margin than 2014 SCons make gains at Holyrood 2021
If the first happens then Ruth is already a busted flush as she has stood on a platform of stopping IndyRef 2 happening, not on winning it. She will lose the SCons the Unionist Lib Dem voters who have transferred.
Option 2 can happen but that is long passed when most assume that May would step down in a Brexit completion scenario.
Mr. Eagles, wanting this country to govern itself and agreeing with every vote (or that particular issues should be subject to a vote) in the Commons are obviously different things.
I support the right of people to choose their own clothing. That doesn't mean to say I think your fashion choices are wise.
If they had made that offer last week, they could have saved themselves a lot of heartache. Idiots.
My theory that Theresa May is trying to sabotage Brexit gains credence everyday.
She doesn't believe in Brexit personally, that's pretty obvious. Watching her trying to implement it is excruciating.
I think Theresa May did see Brexit as an opt out/opt back in process. Tony Blair negotiated an opt-out on Justice affairs with the possibility of opt-in later on selected directives. As Home Secretary she was involved in the opt-back-in. The UK essentially opted out of responsibilities to others while opting into responsibilities others have that would be useful to the UK. Have cake and eat it. The notorious leak from the Downing Street dinner showed that she expected that to be the model for Brexit. The German government wanted to knock that idea on the head. Hence the leak.
Since then she has had no discernible strategy, beyond trying to get the EU to provide the solution. They haven't taken the bait,
National Statistics showed that in 2016 the UK exported £145.5bn of goods to the EU, up from £133.5bn in 2015. The EU accounted for 48.2% of UK goods exports, up from 46.9% in 2015.
However, the UK’s appetite for imports from the EU increased, sending the value of EU goods sold in Britain up by 7.1%, more than offset the increase in EU exports last year. As a result, the UK’s trade in goods deficit with the EU widened by £9.4bn to £96.5bn.
National Statistics showed that in 2016 the UK exported £145.5bn of goods to the EU, up from £133.5bn in 2015. The EU accounted for 48.2% of UK goods exports, up from 46.9% in 2015.
However, the UK’s appetite for imports from the EU increased, sending the value of EU goods sold in Britain up by 7.1%, more than offset the increase in EU exports last year. As a result, the UK’s trade in goods deficit with the EU widened by £9.4bn to £96.5bn.
Very unlikely. Which is why May will not survive until Brexit day and the scenario we discussed earlier, in which Corbyn succeeds her as PM without an election, is a serious possibility.
In which case Corbyn has to do the Brexit negotiations leading the weakest government since the war propped up by the SNP, PC, Greens, LDs and DUP and 56 seats behind the Tories.
National Statistics showed that in 2016 the UK exported £145.5bn of goods to the EU, up from £133.5bn in 2015. The EU accounted for 48.2% of UK goods exports, up from 46.9% in 2015.
However, the UK’s appetite for imports from the EU increased, sending the value of EU goods sold in Britain up by 7.1%, more than offset the increase in EU exports last year. As a result, the UK’s trade in goods deficit with the EU widened by £9.4bn to £96.5bn.
Is this bad news because of Brexit or good news despite Brexit?
The figures are 2016, so the EU was increasing as a proportion of our trade at the time of the referendum.
I suspect that the increasing deficit was in part because of the decline of Sterling, and in part because of Britons enthusiasm for high quality EU imports.
Very unlikely. Which is why May will not survive until Brexit day and the scenario we discussed earlier, in which Corbyn succeeds her as PM without an election, is a serious possibility.
In which case Corbyn has to do the Brexit negotiations leading the weakest government since the war propped up by the SNP, PC, Greens, LDs and DUP and 56 seats behind the Tories.
A swift GE would follow, and in those circumstances a Tory collapse likely at the polls. A government collapse wouldn't help Tory prospects, and PM Corbyn would be in his honeymoon period.
Very unlikely. Which is why May will not survive until Brexit day and the scenario we discussed earlier, in which Corbyn succeeds her as PM without an election, is a serious possibility.
In which case Corbyn has to do the Brexit negotiations leading the weakest government since the war propped up by the SNP, PC, Greens, LDs and DUP and 56 seats behind the Tories.
A swift GE would follow, and in those circumstances a Tory collapse likely at the polls. A government collapse wouldn't help Tory prospects, and PM Corbyn would be in his honeymoon period.
Really? Not one poll shows Corbyn anywhere near a majority, a new general election would make little difference and in purely partisan terms if it is Corbyn who has to pay £50 billion plus to the EU for a FTA and Corbyn who agrees to leave free movement uncontrolled for up to 5 years as the price of a transition deal that would not be a bad result for the Tories.
Very unlikely. Which is why May will not survive until Brexit day and the scenario we discussed earlier, in which Corbyn succeeds her as PM without an election, is a serious possibility.
In which case Corbyn has to do the Brexit negotiations leading the weakest government since the war propped up by the SNP, PC, Greens, LDs and DUP and 56 seats behind the Tories.
Sounds like it would be both stable and radically effective. Certainly it is not as though major compromises would need to be made, nor that 'grubby' deals would need to be made.
Very unlikely. Which is why May will not survive until Brexit day and the scenario we discussed earlier, in which Corbyn succeeds her as PM without an election, is a serious possibility.
In which case Corbyn has to do the Brexit negotiations leading the weakest government since the war propped up by the SNP, PC, Greens, LDs and DUP and 56 seats behind the Tories.
A swift GE would follow, and in those circumstances a Tory collapse likely at the polls. A government collapse wouldn't help Tory prospects, and PM Corbyn would be in his honeymoon period.
Really? Not one poll shows Corbyn anywhere near a majority, a new general election would make little difference and in purely partisan terms if it is Corbyn who has to pay £50 billion plus to the EU and Corbyn who agrees to leave free movement uncontrolled for up to 5 years as the price of a transition deal that would not be a bad result for the Tories.
The polls are fairly close at present but there are some on the left who think Corbyn will walk into no 10.
No one can say with any certainty who and which party will head the next government or indeed when and how a GE could be engineered before 2022
Very unlikely. Which is why May will not survive until Brexit day and the scenario we discussed earlier, in which Corbyn succeeds her as PM without an election, is a serious possibility.
In which case Corbyn has to do the Brexit negotiations leading the weakest government since the war propped up by the SNP, PC, Greens, LDs and DUP and 56 seats behind the Tories.
A swift GE would follow, and in those circumstances a Tory collapse likely at the polls. A government collapse wouldn't help Tory prospects, and PM Corbyn would be in his honeymoon period.
And more importantly, it would convince the EU that we really have taken leave of our senses and that they need to suspend A50 until the UK can find some responsible adults to run the place.
Mr. Eagles, do you think we only had Parliamentary sovereignty in and after 2003? If not, your comment makes no sense. If so, you have a unique and challenging grasp of reality.
Today you've said you don't approve of two examples of Parliament being sovereign.
IIRC you seemed to say in the past Parliament being sovereign was one of the reasons why you backed Leave, I'm struggling to reconcile your position.
The doctrine of parliamentary sovereignty (technically, the sovereignty of the Queen in Parliament) says that nothing overrides an Act of Parliament. At present that isn't the case, but after Brexit it will be. I am not a Leaver, but I am pretty certain that is what they are getting at. Fannyings about in the H of C have nothing to do with the doctrine, except and to the extent that they result in an Act being passed, or repealed.
Very unlikely. Which is why May will not survive until Brexit day and the scenario we discussed earlier, in which Corbyn succeeds her as PM without an election, is a serious possibility.
In which case Corbyn has to do the Brexit negotiations leading the weakest government since the war propped up by the SNP, PC, Greens, LDs and DUP and 56 seats behind the Tories.
Sounds like it would be both stable and radically effective. Certainly it is not as though major compromises would need to be made, nor that 'grubby' deals would need to be made.
Ha ha! Corbyn would be underwater as soon as he dipped his toe in the EU sharkpool while trying to keep working class Labour Leave voters on board.
Very unlikely. Which is why May will not survive until Brexit day and the scenario we discussed earlier, in which Corbyn succeeds her as PM without an election, is a serious possibility.
In which case Corbyn has to do the Brexit negotiations leading the weakest government since the war propped up by the SNP, PC, Greens, LDs and DUP and 56 seats behind the Tories.
A swift GE would follow, and in those circumstances a Tory collapse likely at the polls. A government collapse wouldn't help Tory prospects, and PM Corbyn would be in his honeymoon period.
And more importantly, it would convince the EU that we really have taken leave of our senses and that they need to suspend A50 until the UK can find some responsible adults to run the place.
More importantly you mean to remain in the EU - and that would cause as many problems, if not more, and question democracy
Very unlikely. Which is why May will not survive until Brexit day and the scenario we discussed earlier, in which Corbyn succeeds her as PM without an election, is a serious possibility.
In which case Corbyn has to do the Brexit negotiations leading the weakest government since the war propped up by the SNP, PC, Greens, LDs and DUP and 56 seats behind the Tories.
A swift GE would follow, and in those circumstances a Tory collapse likely at the polls. A government collapse wouldn't help Tory prospects, and PM Corbyn would be in his honeymoon period.
Really? Not one poll shows Corbyn anywhere near a majority, a new general election would make little difference and in purely partisan terms if it is Corbyn who has to pay £50 billion plus to the EU and Corbyn who agrees to leave free movement uncontrolled for up to 5 years as the price of a transition deal that would not be a bad result for the Tories.
The polls are fairly close at present but there are some on the left who think Corbyn will walk into no 10.
No one can say with any certainty who and which party will head the next government or indeed when and how a GE could be engineered before 2022
If Corbyn does enter No 10 the polls are clear it will only be propped up by the SNP and LDs.
Strange thing is - while this government is, by far, the most dysfunctional and incompetent of my lifetime, I don't think it makes a material difference to the eventual Brexit outcome. Even a competent government would struggle and we would still end up taking whatever the EU gave us.
Mr. Eagles, do you think we only had Parliamentary sovereignty in and after 2003? If not, your comment makes no sense. If so, you have a unique and challenging grasp of reality.
Today you've said you don't approve of two examples of Parliament being sovereign.
IIRC you seemed to say in the past Parliament being sovereign was one of the reasons why you backed Leave, I'm struggling to reconcile your position.
The doctrine of parliamentary sovereignty (technically, the sovereignty of the Queen in Parliament) says that nothing overrides an Act of Parliament. At present that isn't the case, but after Brexit it will be. I am not a Leaver, but I am pretty certain that is what they are getting at. Fannyings about in the H of C have nothing to do with the doctrine, except and to the extent that they result in an Act being passed, or repealed.
It seems to me that were there a parliamentary procedure which precedent indicates was only able to be utilised by the executive rather than the opposition in the legislature, then it would not in any way against the principles of our parliamentary sovereignty for that principle to be maintained. It would be a parliamentary procedure as established by parliament on the proper conduct of the business of the parliament, not an attempt at curtailment of a right of the parliament. Even under our system where parliament can ultimately do near about anything, they still have to do things in the right order by the rules it has itself set - that's why the government lost the A50 case; it wasn't that they couldn't proceed, just that under the laws and procedures they themselves had set, they had to do it a specific way. Or they have to specifically authorise themselves to do things another way I suppose.
Now if that procedure were deemed able to be utilised by anyone in the parliament, then so be it, those are the rules.
Very unlikely. Which is why May will not survive until Brexit day and the scenario we discussed earlier, in which Corbyn succeeds her as PM without an election, is a serious possibility.
In which case Corbyn has to do the Brexit negotiations leading the weakest government since the war propped up by the SNP, PC, Greens, LDs and DUP and 56 seats behind the Tories.
A swift GE would follow, and in those circumstances a Tory collapse likely at the polls. A government collapse wouldn't help Tory prospects, and PM Corbyn would be in his honeymoon period.
Really? Not one poll shows Corbyn anywhere near a majority, a new general election would make little difference and in purely partisan terms if it is Corbyn who has to pay £50 billion plus to the EU and Corbyn who agrees to leave free movement uncontrolled for up to 5 years as the price of a transition deal that would not be a bad result for the Tories.
The polls are fairly close at present but there are some on the left who think Corbyn will walk into no 10.
No one can say with any certainty who and which party will head the next government or indeed when and how a GE could be engineered before 2022
If Corbyn does enter No 10 the polls are clear it will only be propped up by the SNP and LDs.
I have little doubt Corbyn if elected would be neutered by a minority or small majority and an overwhelming anti Corbyn House of Lords
Strange thing is - while this government is, by far, the most dysfunctional and incompetent of my lifetime, I don't think it makes a material difference to the eventual Brexit outcome. Even a competent government would struggle and we would still end up taking whatever the EU gave us.
A disturbing thought, actually.
Very much so, though given you list it as the most dysfunctional I have to know from when you are counting 'this government'? If solely from the May ministry then it is an impressive accomplishment to be the most incompetent after barely more than a year.
National Statistics showed that in 2016 the UK exported £145.5bn of goods to the EU, up from £133.5bn in 2015. The EU accounted for 48.2% of UK goods exports, up from 46.9% in 2015.
However, the UK’s appetite for imports from the EU increased, sending the value of EU goods sold in Britain up by 7.1%, more than offset the increase in EU exports last year. As a result, the UK’s trade in goods deficit with the EU widened by £9.4bn to £96.5bn.
Strange thing is - while this government is, by far, the most dysfunctional and incompetent of my lifetime, I don't think it makes a material difference to the eventual Brexit outcome. Even a competent government would struggle and we would still end up taking whatever the EU gave us.
A disturbing thought, actually.
Very much so, though given you list it as the most dysfunctional I have to know from when you are counting 'this government'? If solely from the May ministry then it is an impressive accomplishment to be the most incompetent after barely more than a year.
I am coming to the opinion that the Country should 'sigh in relief' that TM continues to take all the flack and shows amazing fortitude under enormous duress.
Who on earth in their right mind would want to be PM at this time
Very unlikely. Which is why May will not survive until Brexit day and the scenario we discussed earlier, in which Corbyn succeeds her as PM without an election, is a serious possibility.
In which case Corbyn has to do the Brexit negotiations leading the weakest government since the war propped up by the SNP, PC, Greens, LDs and DUP and 56 seats behind the Tories.
A swift GE would follow, and in those circumstances a Tory collapse likely at the polls. A government collapse wouldn't help Tory prospects, and PM Corbyn would be in his honeymoon period.
Really? Not one poll shows Corbyn anywhere near a majority, a new general election would make little difference and in purely partisan terms if it is Corbyn who has to pay £50 billion plus to the EU and Corbyn who agrees to leave free movement uncontrolled for up to 5 years as the price of a transition deal that would not be a bad result for the Tories.
The polls are fairly close at present but there are some on the left who think Corbyn will walk into no 10.
No one can say with any certainty who and which party will head the next government or indeed when and how a GE could be engineered before 2022
If Corbyn does enter No 10 the polls are clear it will only be propped up by the SNP and LDs.
I have little doubt Corbyn if elected would be neutered by a minority or small majority and an overwhelming anti Corbyn House of Lords
As I said it would be the weakest government since the war and dependent on multiple parties for support.
Strange thing is - while this government is, by far, the most dysfunctional and incompetent of my lifetime, I don't think it makes a material difference to the eventual Brexit outcome. Even a competent government would struggle and we would still end up taking whatever the EU gave us.
A disturbing thought, actually.
Very much so, though given you list it as the most dysfunctional I have to know from when you are counting 'this government'? If solely from the May ministry then it is an impressive accomplishment to be the most incompetent after barely more than a year.
I am coming to the opinion that the Country should 'sigh in relief' that TM continues to take all the flack and shows amazing fortitude under enormous duress.
Who on earth in their right mind would want to be PM at this time
The Tories will certainly hope she will act as a lightning rod, and once the storm passes someone else can lead to a turn around in the narrative. Some in Labour and the LDs probably hoped the same with Corbyn and Clegg, with very different results as it turned out not to be needed with the former and didn't work with the latter.
Strange thing is - while this government is, by far, the most dysfunctional and incompetent of my lifetime, I don't think it makes a material difference to the eventual Brexit outcome. Even a competent government would struggle and we would still end up taking whatever the EU gave us.
A disturbing thought, actually.
Very much so, though given you list it as the most dysfunctional I have to know from when you are counting 'this government'? If solely from the May ministry then it is an impressive accomplishment to be the most incompetent after barely more than a year.
Short memories everywhere.
Consider: Expenses to defeat Labour, 2008 - 2010. Tories 1993-1997 Labour 1978-1979 Heath. Every last damn minute.
They can still beat all four, sure, but sometimes its wise take a step back and a bit of perspective.
Strange thing is - while this government is, by far, the most dysfunctional and incompetent of my lifetime, I don't think it makes a material difference to the eventual Brexit outcome. Even a competent government would struggle and we would still end up taking whatever the EU gave us.
A disturbing thought, actually.
That is right. Whatever happens from here on in, history will point the finger of blame at Dave "I thought I'd be rather good at it" Cameron.
It's all I really expect, and most PMs to be a little crappy, with moments of positivity. Government is hard, we have unreasonable expectations (which politicians play up) and don't pay enough for what we want.
Strange thing is - while this government is, by far, the most dysfunctional and incompetent of my lifetime, I don't think it makes a material difference to the eventual Brexit outcome. Even a competent government would struggle and we would still end up taking whatever the EU gave us.
A disturbing thought, actually.
That is right. Whatever happens from here on in, history will point the finger of blame at Dave "I thought I'd be rather good at it" Cameron.
That is far from certain in so damning a fashion. Not least since the British public made the decision, not him. If we went through the door that he opened despite the warnings, the 'problem' that we wanted to get out would have remained even if the door had been kept shut, and who knows how that problem would have manifested.
https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/925790291713495040 Look at the replies - it’s responses like that which is why so many victims don’t come forward. Saw similar responses (though they were less numerous) to poor Bex Bailey’s tweet earlier on today.
Strange thing is - while this government is, by far, the most dysfunctional and incompetent of my lifetime, I don't think it makes a material difference to the eventual Brexit outcome. Even a competent government would struggle and we would still end up taking whatever the EU gave us.
A disturbing thought, actually.
Very much so, though given you list it as the most dysfunctional I have to know from when you are counting 'this government'? If solely from the May ministry then it is an impressive accomplishment to be the most incompetent after barely more than a year.
Short memories everywhere.
Consider: Expenses to defeat Labour, 2008 - 2010. Tories 1993-1997 Labour 1978-1979 Heath. Every last damn minute.
They can still beat all four, sure, but sometimes its wise take a step back and a bit of perspective.
Absolutely.
The norm is dysfunction. It's only when we have the occasional landslide that we get away from it. And look where those landslides leave us...
One of the upsides of Brexit is less policy posturing and messing around making thousands of laws, a la Blair. Parliament needs fewer lawyers, and more businessmen.
Strange thing is - while this government is, by far, the most dysfunctional and incompetent of my lifetime, I don't think it makes a material difference to the eventual Brexit outcome. Even a competent government would struggle and we would still end up taking whatever the EU gave us.
A disturbing thought, actually.
That is right. Whatever happens from here on in, history will point the finger of blame at Dave "I thought I'd be rather good at it" Cameron.
He was rather good, until Judas Gove betrayed him and Boris Johnson decided to put his ambition ahead of the country.
https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/925790291713495040 Look at the replies - it’s responses like that which is why so many victims don’t come forward. Saw similar responses (though they were less numerous) to poor Bex Bailey’s tweet earlier on today.
A few places excepted (PB is one of them, thank God - almost everyone was very encouraging when I had a few pieces published), it is wise advice to never read the comments. I was in the Guardian last week for work related stuff - the few comments that I read before shrugging my shoulders and laughing it off were pretty harsh.
I think a Corbyn government would be very interesting in terms of it pushing the envelope of progressive populism. I would prefer a Corbyn government to commit to ignoring the Brexit vote from 2016. It is clear to me the people who have made careers out of being anti-EU don't have a realistic alternative and have been shown up to be talking utter bollocks, frankly they lied on immigration and the amount of money the UK could expect to retain should Brexit go ahead. William Hague shows how poor his judgement is again by now saying he is against reversing A50, the same Hague called for Theresa May to have a Brexit mandate from a GE! He got that wrong when writing his forgettable columns in the daily telegraph. So my view is give Corbyn a chance in government, the PLP can moderate him from any really bonkers policy. A good dose of government spending might just sort the UK economy out if investment in public housing, travel infrastructure, nuclear power generation and the like are prioritised. The bank of England can easily create money to purchase government bonds to finance it.
I do have reservations in relation to Corbyn and the nuclear deterrent but the Tories have really screwed things up with Brexit and so the dialectic can shift the long-term trend to the centre left without it causing too much long-term damage.
Strange thing is - while this government is, by far, the most dysfunctional and incompetent of my lifetime, I don't think it makes a material difference to the eventual Brexit outcome. Even a competent government would struggle and we would still end up taking whatever the EU gave us.
A disturbing thought, actually.
That is right. Whatever happens from here on in, history will point the finger of blame at Dave "I thought I'd be rather good at it" Cameron.
He was rather good, until Judas Gove betrayed him and Boris Johnson decided to put his ambition ahead of the country.
The Brexiteers are modern day Lord Halifaxs.
Remainers are modern day Lord Halifaxes. They want the UK to surrender meekly.
https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/925790291713495040 Look at the replies - it’s responses like that which is why so many victims don’t come forward. Saw similar responses (though they were less numerous) to poor Bex Bailey’s tweet earlier on today.
That's very unfortunate, very dismissive and skeptical for very cynical reasons, but what's the solution? Certainly not the entirely discredited approach the police took for some years to automatically believe allegations, predetermining and invalidating outcomes by turning investigatory practice on its head. People need to be assured that if they come forward with allegations of criminal activity those allegations will be seriously and properly investigated, but there's no way to guarantee even true allegations will be dealt with (there may be no definitive way to prove it), so no guarantee of justice even if everyone tries their best to achieve it, and certainly no way to stop random people on the internet from being dismissive and abuse at every allegation, often depending on political affiliation.
https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/925790291713495040 Look at the replies - it’s responses like that which is why so many victims don’t come forward. Saw similar responses (though they were less numerous) to poor Bex Bailey’s tweet earlier on today.
A few places excepted (PB is one of them, thank God - almost everyone was very encouraging when I had a few pieces published), it is wise advice to never read the comments. I was in the Guardian last week for work related stuff - the few comments that I read before shrugging my shoulders and laughing it off were pretty harsh.
Yep, that’s true. For the most part CIF and the DM comments section always seem to be a mess. I nearly always regret reading them. Commentators on both sites always seem so angry, even about frivolous things.
Strange thing is - while this government is, by far, the most dysfunctional and incompetent of my lifetime, I don't think it makes a material difference to the eventual Brexit outcome. Even a competent government would struggle and we would still end up taking whatever the EU gave us.
A disturbing thought, actually.
That is right. Whatever happens from here on in, history will point the finger of blame at Dave "I thought I'd be rather good at it" Cameron.
Blair should also not escape the finger of blame for failing to impose transition controls on immigration from the new accession countries in 2004.
Strange thing is - while this government is, by far, the most dysfunctional and incompetent of my lifetime, I don't think it makes a material difference to the eventual Brexit outcome. Even a competent government would struggle and we would still end up taking whatever the EU gave us.
A disturbing thought, actually.
Very much so, though given you list it as the most dysfunctional I have to know from when you are counting 'this government'? If solely from the May ministry then it is an impressive accomplishment to be the most incompetent after barely more than a year.
I am coming to the opinion that the Country should 'sigh in relief' that TM continues to take all the flack and shows amazing fortitude under enormous duress.
Who on earth in their right mind would want to be PM at this time
I think a Corbyn government would be very interesting in terms of it pushing the envelope of progressive populism. I would prefer a Corbyn government to commit to ignoring the Brexit vote from 2016. .
But so far that is the opposite of what they say they will do, so how would they get to such a point? Sure they are being quite clever as to what exactly they want, but they have been talking about the right Brexit, not stopping it.
I do find this quote from the Brexit section of their manifesto amusing though, as people will no doubt reflect the two parts of the sentence contradict each other.
Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first
https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/925790291713495040 Look at the replies - it’s responses like that which is why so many victims don’t come forward. Saw similar responses (though they were less numerous) to poor Bex Bailey’s tweet earlier on today.
A few places excepted (PB is one of them, thank God - almost everyone was very encouraging when I had a few pieces published), it is wise advice to never read the comments. I was in the Guardian last week for work related stuff - the few comments that I read before shrugging my shoulders and laughing it off were pretty harsh.
Yep, that’s true. For the most part CIF and the DM comments section always seem to be a mess. I nearly always regret reading them. Commentators on both sites always seem so angry, even about frivolous things.
It's even the case with local papers and the like, it is astonishing. I don't know how people who get so angry over even minor things would respond to things that actually are significant.
https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/925790291713495040 Look at the replies - it’s responses like that which is why so many victims don’t come forward. Saw similar responses (though they were less numerous) to poor Bex Bailey’s tweet earlier on today.
A few places excepted (PB is one of them, thank God - almost everyone was very encouraging when I had a few pieces published), it is wise advice to never read the comments. I was in the Guardian last week for work related stuff - the few comments that I read before shrugging my shoulders and laughing it off were pretty harsh.
Yep, that’s true. For the most part CIF and the DM comments section always seem to be a mess. I nearly always regret reading them. Commentators on both sites always seem so angry, even about frivolous things.
The amusing thing is CIF and DM comments disagree on virtually everything you can possibly think of apart from the fact they both hate Tony Blair and David Cameron.
If you want some half sane comments read the Times and occasionally the BBC.
Surely the PM can just classify them as cabinet papers, or top secret?
I’d have them marked TS and released completely redacted bar the title of each document.
The respect for Parliamentary sovereignty among these Leavers is flaky. It's almost as if that isn't the real motivation of many Leavers.
Parliamentary sovereignty shall thankfully return on the day we leave the EU.
I’ve no objection at all with allowing the viewing of sensitive negotiation documents under Privy Council terms, but that’s not what Kier Starmer wants. He wants us to go into the most difficult and delicate negotiations in decades with all our cards face up on the table.
I would imagine that, were they so inclined, the EU negotiators could figure out the impact of Brexit on our prospects for themselves.
What the Brexiters are really terrified of is the voters' reactions if the impact assessments are made public.
I think a Corbyn government would be very interesting in terms of it pushing the envelope of progressive populism. I would prefer a Corbyn government to commit to ignoring the Brexit vote from 2016. It is clear to me the people who have made careers out of being anti-EU don't have a realistic alternative and have been shown up to be talking utter bollocks, frankly they lied on immigration and the amount of money the UK could expect to retain should Brexit go ahead. William Hague shows how poor his judgement is again by now saying he is against reversing A50, the same Hague called for Theresa May to have a Brexit mandate from a GE! He got that wrong when writing his forgettable columns in the daily telegraph. So my view is give Corbyn a chance in government, the PLP can moderate him from any really bonkers policy. A good dose of government spending might just sort the UK economy out if investment in public housing, travel infrastructure, nuclear power generation and the like are prioritised. The bank of England can easily create money to purchase government bonds to finance it.
I do have reservations in relation to Corbyn and the nuclear deterrent but the Tories have really screwed things up with Brexit and so the dialectic can shift the long-term trend to the centre left without it causing too much long-term damage.
They didn't lie on immigration, even Corbyn backs ultimately leaving the single market to end free movement.
Comments
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/925779800987504640
If the publications were surprisingly positive about Brexit, do you think the government would still refuse to publish them?
Agriculture is going to be horrible for Ireland if there isn't a deal. They will simply lose their UK markets, and the cross border trade on the Island will be a nightmare of complexity and costs. They also sell a lot of digital product into the UK, and many companies have offshored there due to low taxes. If Ireland's position is - get the border right or we'll veto moving on, the pain they will inflict on themselves too if it all goes wrong by accident will be absolutely terrible.
There may be late nights and multiple votes - but in the end it will almost certainly get its way. A potential election, losing your seat and Corbyn as PM may also be a powerful control on Tory MPs in the end.
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/925782994799005698
#justsayin'
We would be Switzerland on Sea.
IIRC you seemed to say in the past Parliament being sovereign was one of the reasons why you backed Leave, I'm struggling to reconcile your position.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/925400632311369728
In other news:
National Statistics showed that in 2016 the UK exported £145.5bn of goods to the EU, up from £133.5bn in 2015. The EU accounted for 48.2% of UK goods exports, up from 46.9% in 2015.
However, the UK’s appetite for imports from the EU increased, sending the value of EU goods sold in Britain up by 7.1%, more than offset the increase in EU exports last year. As a result, the UK’s trade in goods deficit with the EU widened by £9.4bn to £96.5bn.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/01/brexit-vote-cost-niesr-economic-growth
Why? Why?
IndyRef2 is held and Yes is defeated by larger margin than 2014
SCons make gains at Holyrood 2021
If the first happens then Ruth is already a busted flush as she has stood on a platform of stopping IndyRef 2 happening, not on winning it. She will lose the SCons the Unionist Lib Dem voters who have transferred.
Option 2 can happen but that is long passed when most assume that May would step down in a Brexit completion scenario.
https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/925787917238325250
I support the right of people to choose their own clothing. That doesn't mean to say I think your fashion choices are wise.
Since then she has had no discernible strategy, beyond trying to get the EU to provide the solution. They haven't taken the bait,
I suspect that the increasing deficit was in part because of the decline of Sterling, and in part because of Britons enthusiasm for high quality EU imports.
Probably an anomaly, rather than a trend.
No one can say with any certainty who and which party will head the next government or indeed when and how a GE could be engineered before 2022
A disturbing thought, actually.
Now if that procedure were deemed able to be utilised by anyone in the parliament, then so be it, those are the rules.
Who on earth in their right mind would want to be PM at this time
Consider:
Expenses to defeat Labour, 2008 - 2010.
Tories 1993-1997
Labour 1978-1979
Heath. Every last damn minute.
They can still beat all four, sure, but sometimes its wise take a step back and a bit of perspective.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/14/left-reject-eu-greece-eurosceptic
Look at the replies - it’s responses like that which is why so many victims don’t come forward. Saw similar responses (though they were less numerous) to poor Bex Bailey’s tweet earlier on today.
The norm is dysfunction. It's only when we have the occasional landslide that we get away from it. And look where those landslides leave us...
One of the upsides of Brexit is less policy posturing and messing around making thousands of laws, a la Blair. Parliament needs fewer lawyers, and more businessmen.
The Brexiteers are modern day Lord Halifaxs.
I do have reservations in relation to Corbyn and the nuclear deterrent but the Tories have really screwed things up with Brexit and so the dialectic can shift the long-term trend to the centre left without it causing too much long-term damage.
I do find this quote from the Brexit section of their manifesto amusing though, as people will no doubt reflect the two parts of the sentence contradict each other.
Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first
If you want some half sane comments read the Times and occasionally the BBC.
What the Brexiters are really terrified of is the voters' reactions if the impact assessments are made public.
Bercow says motions like this have been binding “I would expect Vice Chamberlain of Household to present honourable address in usual way”
Bercow is saying that VC of Household will have to present the impact assessments - he is also known as Chris Heaton-Harris
Bercow says that Commons could find the Government in contempt of the House if It ignores the motion now passed unanimously
Asked by Sarah Wollaston, Bercow suggests he'd expect that Government should act on this motion within a few days