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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If these rumours turn out to be accurate I can see a 2018 gene

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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Somewhat later in that thread...
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/925020228928655360
    I have taken some 1.96 on Trump not lasting his term.
    I'm joining you.
    2 years it took from first charge to Nixon resigning.
    Trump is not Nixon. If the scandals start hitting Trump's business interests hard then he'll want to look for a way out.
    He's raked in millions from the taxpayer already due to the payments from the Sereret Service to Trump companies.
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    So people are calling on Netflix to cancel House of Cards.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited October 2017
    Nigelb said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    If I were May Garnier wouldn't have the chance to resign. I'd sack him.

    In most workplaces suspension would take place , then a hearing .I would not want to see summary sackings , without allegations been heard .
    I'm not sure such standards apply to ministerial appointments - the PM's powers to hire and fire are more like the US 'hire at will' standards -
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At-will_employment

    Certainly not "most workplaces".
    Yes understood but would not want that applied to MPs.
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    Somewhat later in that thread...
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/925020228928655360
    I have taken some 1.96 on Trump not lasting his term.
    The march down to 1.01 begins! :)
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833

    So people are calling on Netflix to cancel House of Cards.

    Typical. But totally unwarranted at this point.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,124

    Esther McVey putting the boot into John Mcdonnell

    What's Johnny Mac done to upset Esther?
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    GIN1138 said:

    Esther McVey putting the boot into John Mcdonnell

    What's Johnny Mac done to upset Esther?
    http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/esther-mcvey-lynching-mp-john-8125900
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,801
    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,987

    rkrkrk said:

    Somewhat later in that thread...
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/925020228928655360
    I have taken some 1.96 on Trump not lasting his term.
    I'm joining you.
    I feel very confident enough evidence will come out of this for Dems to impeach Trump.
    But Dems alone will not be enough to get rid of him.

    The unknowns are:
    1) is there a chance Trump will go voluntarily?
    2) is there a level of evidence that would cause Republican politicians/base to abandon him?

    1) Slim. If he had a guarantee that Pence would pardon him, perhaps?

    2) Yes, some are peeling off already like Senator Flake. Next year's midterms will (a) focus minds and (b) quite possibly produce a Dem House, which would surely impeach. Conviction requires a 2/3 majority in the Senate.
    A guarantee would be pretty damaging to Pence's chances of being President.
    And that's assuming Pence isn't going to get caught up in this.

    Those going anti-trump like Flake and Corker are retiring...
    Even if we say things go well for the Dems and they have 48-49 senators, that still means 18/19 or so republicans have to go against Trump. Bannon's primarying is likely to increase levels of loyalty to Trump at least in the short term.

    I think McCain and Graham would go for it as they don't like Trump.
    Not sure what the moderates would do - but even then getting to 67 feels a long way.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,124

    GIN1138 said:

    Esther McVey putting the boot into John Mcdonnell

    What's Johnny Mac done to upset Esther?
    http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/esther-mcvey-lynching-mp-john-8125900
    Oh!
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    So people are calling on Netflix to cancel House of Cards.

    Is that because the last season wasn't up to the standard of previous ones?
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Esther McVey putting the boot into John Mcdonnell

    What's Johnny Mac done to upset Esther?
    http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/esther-mcvey-lynching-mp-john-8125900
    Oh!
    Quite! Surprised that one had passed you by...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,210
    edited October 2017
    Once you get to 109 tweets in a thread perhaps it isn’t the right medium?
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
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    The Oscar-winning star accused of assaulting the loved-one of a TV journalist two weeks ago can today be named as Kevin Spacey who has suggested there could be more ‘stories’ about him to emerge.

    Former US news anchor Heather Unruh said the Harvey Weinstein scandal had given her the courage to accuse the House of Cards star, 58, of attacking someone close to her.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5031097/Kevin-Spacey-accused-assaulting-journalist-s-relative.html
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
    Why I am unclear about is the constitutional position if POTUS and VPOTUS resign at the same time... I guess the Speaker of the House is promoted. Anyone put money on President Ryan?
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    So people are calling on Netflix to cancel House of Cards.

    Is that because the last season wasn't up to the standard of previous ones?
    https://www.buzzfeed.com/krystieyandoli/people-are-calling-for-netflix-to-cancel-house-of-cards?utm_term=.uaekKx3woj#.xx1arv1DYq
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    So people are calling on Netflix to cancel House of Cards.

    Is that because the last season wasn't up to the standard of previous ones?
    https://www.buzzfeed.com/krystieyandoli/people-are-calling-for-netflix-to-cancel-house-of-cards?utm_term=.uaekKx3woj#.xx1arv1DYq
    I was joking...it seems old Kevin might need a better excuse than poor memory (see link below).
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,124
    edited October 2017
    Scott_P said:
    Your going to Tweet yourself into a stupor by 9pm. Pace yourself Scott...
  • Options

    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    There won't be any by-elections. The MPs will hang on for their payoff even if the whip is withdrawn. Look what happened with Natalie McGarry, Michelle Thomson or Eric Joyce
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,233

    Somewhat later in that thread...
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/925020228928655360
    I have taken some 1.96 on Trump not lasting his term.
    The march down to 1.01 begins! :)
    What are we going to call the TV series about the impeachment... Moscow Behind Closed Doors ?
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
    Why I am unclear about is the constitutional position if POTUS and VPOTUS resign at the same time... I guess the Speaker of the House is promoted. Anyone put money on President Ryan?
    There aren't any markets paying out on Next President, as far as I am aware. For the obvious reason that most firms don't want to effectively bet on an assassination.

    Pence might have to resign first, I think. Then it would pass to Ryan.

    I did see a fanciful suggestion that Ryan could then, in a spirit of unity and atonement, nominate Clinton as VP and then resign in her favour. With Hillary then nominating him (or another Rep) as her VP. I did say fanciful!
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
    Why I am unclear about is the constitutional position if POTUS and VPOTUS resign at the same time... I guess the Speaker of the House is promoted. Anyone put money on President Ryan?
    There aren't any markets paying out on Next President, as far as I am aware. For the obvious reason that most firms don't want to effectively bet on an assassination.

    Pence might have to resign first, I think. Then it would pass to Ryan.

    I did see a fanciful suggestion that Ryan could then, in a spirit of unity and atonement, nominate Clinton as VP and then resign in her favour. With Hillary then nominating him (or another Rep) as her VP. I did say fanciful!
    That sounds like a movie script!
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    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
    Why I am unclear about is the constitutional position if POTUS and VPOTUS resign at the same time... I guess the Speaker of the House is promoted. Anyone put money on President Ryan?
    There aren't any markets paying out on Next President, as far as I am aware. For the obvious reason that most firms don't want to effectively bet on an assassination.

    Pence might have to resign first, I think. Then it would pass to Ryan.

    I did see a fanciful suggestion that Ryan could then, in a spirit of unity and atonement, nominate Clinton as VP and then resign in her favour. With Hillary then nominating him (or another Rep) as her VP. I did say fanciful!
    I believe publicity shy Paddy Power are the only bookie that ever had a bet on a President (Obama) being assassinated.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Somewhat later in that thread...
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/925020228928655360
    I have taken some 1.96 on Trump not lasting his term.
    I'm joining you.
    I feel very confident enough evidence will come out of this for Dems to impeach Trump.
    But Dems alone will not be enough to get rid of him.

    The unknowns are:
    1) is there a chance Trump will go voluntarily?
    2) is there a level of evidence that would cause Republican politicians/base to abandon him?

    1) Slim. If he had a guarantee that Pence would pardon him, perhaps?

    2) Yes, some are peeling off already like Senator Flake. Next year's midterms will (a) focus minds and (b) quite possibly produce a Dem House, which would surely impeach. Conviction requires a 2/3 majority in the Senate.
    A guarantee would be pretty damaging to Pence's chances of being President.
    And that's assuming Pence isn't going to get caught up in this.

    Those going anti-trump like Flake and Corker are retiring...
    Even if we say things go well for the Dems and they have 48-49 senators, that still means 18/19 or so republicans have to go against Trump. Bannon's primarying is likely to increase levels of loyalty to Trump at least in the short term.

    I think McCain and Graham would go for it as they don't like Trump.
    Not sure what the moderates would do - but even then getting to 67 feels a long way.
    How would a guarantee affect Pence's chance of becoming president? If Trump goes, he is president until the next election unless he, too, is removed.

    If Trump is impeached successfully, I would not be surprised if the whole Bannon thing implodes. Bannon has no real standing in his own right - he cannot rally the troops to himself, only to a candidate with some charisma. Without Trump, Bannon is nothing more than a noisy gnat, and without Trump, Bannon's candidates, even if elected, are just angry right wingers without a general. I doubt that mainstream GOP Senators would be quaking in their boots at the prospects of being primaried by Bannon candidates if Trump's conviction looked a foregone conclusion.

    And that, if things truly get to that stage with evidence directly against Trump, will no doubt factor into GOP Senators' calculations.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,367

    So people are calling on Netflix to cancel House of Cards.

    ‘People calling for x’ has to be one of the more meaningless headlines in existence when reporters use it - it can be used to demand anything, without any qualification of how many are calling for it, who the people are.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    There won't be any by-elections. The MPs will hang on for their payoff even if the whip is withdrawn. Look what happened with Natalie McGarry, Michelle Thomson or Eric Joyce
    My own MP Ian Gibson resigned over the Expenses scandal in mid-2009.
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    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    There won't be any by-elections. The MPs will hang on for their payoff even if the whip is withdrawn. Look what happened with Natalie McGarry, Michelle Thomson or Eric Joyce
    I really do feel sorry for Michelle Thomson.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    Mr. Price, hmm. I'd want long odds on that (and I backed, with pence, a few 1000/1 shots at the weekend. One of them actually came fairly close (Ocon to win each way)).

    F1: begun writing an early musing about the 2018 title race. My put it up next weekend.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,821
    edited October 2017
    After the conversation yesterday on the attractiveness of London, especially to the young, the rich and foreigners...this young rich foreigner isn't sold on it.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/10/30/alvaro-morata-dont-see-london-long-big-much-stress/
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    But a change of Government could occur simply as a result of the DUP switching sides. No by elections would then be needed!
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
    Why I am unclear about is the constitutional position if POTUS and VPOTUS resign at the same time... I guess the Speaker of the House is promoted. Anyone put money on President Ryan?
    There aren't any markets paying out on Next President, as far as I am aware. For the obvious reason that most firms don't want to effectively bet on an assassination.

    Pence might have to resign first, I think. Then it would pass to Ryan.

    I did see a fanciful suggestion that Ryan could then, in a spirit of unity and atonement, nominate Clinton as VP and then resign in her favour. With Hillary then nominating him (or another Rep) as her VP. I did say fanciful!
    Depends on sequence. If Pence goes first, Trump appoints a new VP, who then becomes President if Trump is forced out (think Nixon, Agnew and Ford).

    If Trump goes first, Pence becomes President and appoints his own VP. If he then is forced out, the new VP becomes President.

    Ryan only become President (other than being elected in his own right) if both Trump and Pence are forced out so close together they have no time to duly appoint a new VP, or if he is chosen by the second one out as that person's VP before they are forced out.

    Clear? Reminds me of the old TV show, Soap
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    Nigelb said:

    Somewhat later in that thread...
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/925020228928655360
    I have taken some 1.96 on Trump not lasting his term.
    The march down to 1.01 begins! :)
    What are we going to call the TV series about the impeachment... Moscow Behind Closed Doors ?
    All The President's Conmen? White House of Cards?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,367
    edited October 2017

    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    Why would by-elections be held merely on implication? An MP was charged and tried for rape and sexual assault and didn’t quit, and then they were acquitted.

    As you say it is a big if anyway, but you’d need not only enough people implicated, and only one side of the House since if others are as well there is no partisan advantage, then enough of those implications need to be serious enough to get that person to quit or for the party to find a way to force them to quit, or they would need to be convicted. In the expenses spending re elections it turned out exactly one MP may have done something worthy of a charge, so this early in it’s hard to say how serious matters could be. (Although perhaps you meant the original expenses scandal - I don’t recall how many didn’t restand as a result)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Your going to Tweet yourself into a stupor by 9pm. Pace yourself Scott...

    I have Tweeted 4 times today thus far, not approaching stupor.

    I guess I have more stamina than you...
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MTimT said:

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
    Why I am unclear about is the constitutional position if POTUS and VPOTUS resign at the same time... I guess the Speaker of the House is promoted. Anyone put money on President Ryan?
    There aren't any markets paying out on Next President, as far as I am aware. For the obvious reason that most firms don't want to effectively bet on an assassination.

    Pence might have to resign first, I think. Then it would pass to Ryan.

    I did see a fanciful suggestion that Ryan could then, in a spirit of unity and atonement, nominate Clinton as VP and then resign in her favour. With Hillary then nominating him (or another Rep) as her VP. I did say fanciful!
    Depends on sequence. If Pence goes first, Trump appoints a new VP, who then becomes President if Trump is forced out (think Nixon, Agnew and Ford).

    If Trump goes first, Pence becomes President and appoints his own VP. If he then is forced out, the new VP becomes President.

    Ryan only become President (other than being elected in his own right) if both Trump and Pence are forced out so close together they have no time to duly appoint a new VP, or if he is chosen by the second one out as that person's VP before they are forced out.

    Clear? Reminds me of the old TV show, Soap
    A new VP needs confirming by both houses to take office; it's not just a matter of appointment.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,987
    MTimT said:



    How would a guarantee affect Pence's chance of becoming president? If Trump goes, he is president until the next election unless he, too, is removed.

    If Trump is impeached successfully, I would not be surprised if the whole Bannon thing implodes. Bannon has no real standing in his own right - he cannot rally the troops to himself, only to a candidate with some charisma. Without Trump, Bannon is nothing more than a noisy gnat, and without Trump, Bannon's candidates, even if elected, are just angry right wingers without a general. I doubt that mainstream GOP Senators would be quaking in their boots at the prospects of being primaried by Bannon candidates if Trump's conviction looked a foregone conclusion.

    And that, if things truly get to that stage with evidence directly against Trump, will no doubt factor into GOP Senators' calculations.

    Disagree on both points I'm afraid.

    1) If Pence guarantees a pardon for Trump - it will be bad for him like for Gerald Ford/Nixon.

    2) Even if Trump ends in total disgrace, the movement isn't going anywhere.
    Bannon will still have plenty of angry people who hate the status quo - and they will find a new candidate to admire. Indeed they may not even abandon Trump.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,367
    justin124 said:

    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    But a change of Government could occur simply as a result of the DUP switching sides. No by elections would then be needed!
    Surely impossible, I remember being told how grubby the deal with the DUP was, and I find it hard to believe they would abandon ship to another ship without guarantees of keeping what they’d been promised.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    kle4 said:

    So people are calling on Netflix to cancel House of Cards.

    ‘People calling for x’ has to be one of the more meaningless headlines in existence when reporters use it - it can be used to demand anything, without any qualification of how many are calling for it, who the people are.
    "Campaigners say..." is another one. Whenever I hear a reporter say that I wonder if these campaigners actually exist outside the reporter's head.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    kle4 said:

    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    Why would by-elections be held merely on implication? An MP was charged and tried for rape and sexual assault and didn’t quit, and then they were acquitted.

    As you say it is a big if anyway, but you’d need not only enough people implicated, and only one side of the House since if others are as well there is no partisan advantage, then enough of those implications need to be serious enough to get that person to quit or for the party to find a way to force them to quit, or they would need to be convicted. In the expenses spending re elections it turned out exactly one MP may have done something worthy of a charge, so this early in it’s hard to say how serious matters could be.
    The case of Nigel Evans comes to mind.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rkrkrk said:

    MTimT said:



    How would a guarantee affect Pence's chance of becoming president? If Trump goes, he is president until the next election unless he, too, is removed.

    If Trump is impeached successfully, I would not be surprised if the whole Bannon thing implodes. Bannon has no real standing in his own right - he cannot rally the troops to himself, only to a candidate with some charisma. Without Trump, Bannon is nothing more than a noisy gnat, and without Trump, Bannon's candidates, even if elected, are just angry right wingers without a general. I doubt that mainstream GOP Senators would be quaking in their boots at the prospects of being primaried by Bannon candidates if Trump's conviction looked a foregone conclusion.

    And that, if things truly get to that stage with evidence directly against Trump, will no doubt factor into GOP Senators' calculations.

    Disagree on both points I'm afraid.

    1) If Pence guarantees a pardon for Trump - it will be bad for him like for Gerald Ford/Nixon.

    2) Even if Trump ends in total disgrace, the movement isn't going anywhere.
    Bannon will still have plenty of angry people who hate the status quo - and they will find a new candidate to admire. Indeed they may not even abandon Trump.
    1) If Pence pardons Trump, he is already President.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    But a change of Government could occur simply as a result of the DUP switching sides. No by elections would then be needed!
    Surely impossible, I remember being told how grubby the deal with the DUP was, and I find it hard to believe they would abandon ship to another ship without guarantees of keeping what they’d been promised.
    I suppose there aren’t any DUP-ers involved? Just wondering.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,987

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
    Why I am unclear about is the constitutional position if POTUS and VPOTUS resign at the same time... I guess the Speaker of the House is promoted. Anyone put money on President Ryan?
    There aren't any markets paying out on Next President, as far as I am aware. For the obvious reason that most firms don't want to effectively bet on an assassination.

    Pence might have to resign first, I think. Then it would pass to Ryan.

    I did see a fanciful suggestion that Ryan could then, in a spirit of unity and atonement, nominate Clinton as VP and then resign in her favour. With Hillary then nominating him (or another Rep) as her VP. I did say fanciful!
    I've just place a small bet on Ryan at 59/1 to be President in 2020 on Betfair.

    If we say (generously) 2/1 on Trump not running... then Ryan would surely be one of the frontrunners for the R nomination. Not too close to Trump, but certainly not a moderate.
    I'd probably lay at that point.

    In a general election he'd probably start behind a Dem. but not by much.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,987
    MTimT said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MTimT said:



    How would a guarantee affect Pence's chance of becoming president? If Trump goes, he is president until the next election unless he, too, is removed.

    If Trump is impeached successfully, I would not be surprised if the whole Bannon thing implodes. Bannon has no real standing in his own right - he cannot rally the troops to himself, only to a candidate with some charisma. Without Trump, Bannon is nothing more than a noisy gnat, and without Trump, Bannon's candidates, even if elected, are just angry right wingers without a general. I doubt that mainstream GOP Senators would be quaking in their boots at the prospects of being primaried by Bannon candidates if Trump's conviction looked a foregone conclusion.

    And that, if things truly get to that stage with evidence directly against Trump, will no doubt factor into GOP Senators' calculations.

    Disagree on both points I'm afraid.

    1) If Pence guarantees a pardon for Trump - it will be bad for him like for Gerald Ford/Nixon.

    2) Even if Trump ends in total disgrace, the movement isn't going anywhere.
    Bannon will still have plenty of angry people who hate the status quo - and they will find a new candidate to admire. Indeed they may not even abandon Trump.
    1) If Pence pardons Trump, he is already President.
    Yes - but presumably he wants to be President for a while, not just a placeholder for a couple of years.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
    Why I am unclear about is the constitutional position if POTUS and VPOTUS resign at the same time... I guess the Speaker of the House is promoted. Anyone put money on President Ryan?
    There aren't any markets paying out on Next President, as far as I am aware. For the obvious reason that most firms don't want to effectively bet on an assassination.

    Pence might have to resign first, I think. Then it would pass to Ryan.

    I did see a fanciful suggestion that Ryan could then, in a spirit of unity and atonement, nominate Clinton as VP and then resign in her favour. With Hillary then nominating him (or another Rep) as her VP. I did say fanciful!
    Depends on sequence. If Pence goes first, Trump appoints a new VP, who then becomes President if Trump is forced out (think Nixon, Agnew and Ford).

    If Trump goes first, Pence becomes President and appoints his own VP. If he then is forced out, the new VP becomes President.

    Ryan only become President (other than being elected in his own right) if both Trump and Pence are forced out so close together they have no time to duly appoint a new VP, or if he is chosen by the second one out as that person's VP before they are forced out.

    Clear? Reminds me of the old TV show, Soap
    A new VP needs confirming by both houses to take office; it's not just a matter of appointment.
    OK. Search and replace 'appoint' with 'appoint and confirm' and my post stands.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,074
    rkrkrk said:

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
    Why I am unclear about is the constitutional position if POTUS and VPOTUS resign at the same time... I guess the Speaker of the House is promoted. Anyone put money on President Ryan?
    There aren't any markets paying out on Next President, as far as I am aware. For the obvious reason that most firms don't want to effectively bet on an assassination.

    Pence might have to resign first, I think. Then it would pass to Ryan.

    I did see a fanciful suggestion that Ryan could then, in a spirit of unity and atonement, nominate Clinton as VP and then resign in her favour. With Hillary then nominating him (or another Rep) as her VP. I did say fanciful!
    I've just place a small bet on Ryan at 59/1 to be President in 2020 on Betfair.

    If we say (generously) 2/1 on Trump not running... then Ryan would surely be one of the frontrunners for the R nomination. Not too close to Trump, but certainly not a moderate.
    I'd probably lay at that point.

    In a general election he'd probably start behind a Dem. but not by much.
    Ryan is going to get trounced by Pelosi in next year's midterms on current polls.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    But a change of Government could occur simply as a result of the DUP switching sides. No by elections would then be needed!
    Surely impossible, I remember being told how grubby the deal with the DUP was, and I find it hard to believe they would abandon ship to another ship without guarantees of keeping what they’d been promised.
    Not impossible - but I accept that it is highly unlikely.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,987
    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
    Why I am unclear about is the constitutional position if POTUS and VPOTUS resign at the same time... I guess the Speaker of the House is promoted. Anyone put money on President Ryan?
    There aren't any markets paying out on Next President, as far as I am aware. For the obvious reason that most firms don't want to effectively bet on an assassination.

    Pence might have to resign first, I think. Then it would pass to Ryan.

    I did see a fanciful suggestion that Ryan could then, in a spirit of unity and atonement, nominate Clinton as VP and then resign in her favour. With Hillary then nominating him (or another Rep) as her VP. I did say fanciful!
    I've just place a small bet on Ryan at 59/1 to be President in 2020 on Betfair.

    If we say (generously) 2/1 on Trump not running... then Ryan would surely be one of the frontrunners for the R nomination. Not too close to Trump, but certainly not a moderate.
    I'd probably lay at that point.

    In a general election he'd probably start behind a Dem. but not by much.
    Ryan is going to get trounced by Pelosi in next year's midterms on current polls.
    Fair point. Hadn't thought of that - and may well make him damaged goods.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,074

    So people are calling on Netflix to cancel House of Cards.

    Spacey of course plays a serial killer President on House of Cards.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
    Why I am unclear about is the constitutional position if POTUS and VPOTUS resign at the same time... I guess the Speaker of the House is promoted. Anyone put money on President Ryan?
    There aren't any markets paying out on Next President, as far as I am aware. For the obvious reason that most firms don't want to effectively bet on an assassination.

    Pence might have to resign first, I think. Then it would pass to Ryan.

    I did see a fanciful suggestion that Ryan could then, in a spirit of unity and atonement, nominate Clinton as VP and then resign in her favour. With Hillary then nominating him (or another Rep) as her VP. I did say fanciful!
    Depends on sequence. If Pence goes first, Trump appoints a new VP, who then becomes President if Trump is forced out (think Nixon, Agnew and Ford).

    If Trump goes first, Pence becomes President and appoints his own VP. If he then is forced out, the new VP becomes President.

    Ryan only become President (other than being elected in his own right) if both Trump and Pence are forced out so close together they have no time to duly appoint a new VP, or if he is chosen by the second one out as that person's VP before they are forced out.

    Clear? Reminds me of the old TV show, Soap
    A new VP needs confirming by both houses to take office; it's not just a matter of appointment.
    OK. Search and replace 'appoint' with 'appoint and confirm' and my post stands.
    Yes, but confirmation takes a lot of time and wouldn't be guaranteed in such febrile circumstances, which was my point.

    In any case Pence would presumably only go first as part of a choreographed double resignation - which is unlikely anyway.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    F1: already, Verstappen's odds have declined. He's just 4 for next year's title.

    I rate him highly, but if the Renault engine is good enough for him to have a shot then it's probably going to be a Hamilton, Vettel, Alonso, Verstappen fight. Now, that sounds great, but odds of 4, on a four man fight, that might not be settled until more than a year away, does not tempt.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,367
    edited October 2017

    kle4 said:

    So people are calling on Netflix to cancel House of Cards.

    ‘People calling for x’ has to be one of the more meaningless headlines in existence when reporters use it - it can be used to demand anything, without any qualification of how many are calling for it, who the people are.
    "Campaigners say..." is another one. Whenever I hear a reporter say that I wonder if these campaigners actually exist outside the reporter's head.
    I like to imagine a partisan reporter pushing an agenda at grand historical/mythological events.

    Mr Jesus of Nazareth (although rumours persist he is in fact from Bethlehem), known to his followers as ‘The Christ’ promised that the meek would inherit the earth before an adoring crowd, but some are doubtful.

    ‘Look, the basic message is alright’ said Joseph, a cheese maker who witnessed the speech, ‘but some fellas are more meek than others is all I’m saying, where’s the detail’

    Rumours of fierce divisions within the charismatic campaigners camp were strongly denied by his official spokesman, Judas Iscariot.

    “We’re all brothers here’ said Mr Iscariot crossly. ‘None of us would go against Jesus, not even for 29 pieces of silver’.

    The Roman authorities put out a statement stating self proclaimed messiahs would not be permitted to disrupt the lawful operations of the empire, and that Mr Christ would soon find his popularity fade.
  • Options
    The scariest woman in politics (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) is up shortly to answer press questions about all this news.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,074
    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
    Why I am unclear about is the constitutional position if POTUS and VPOTUS resign at the same time... I guess the Speaker of the House is promoted. Anyone put money on President Ryan?
    There aren't any markets paying out on Next President, as far as I am aware. For the obvious reason that most firms don't want to effectively bet on an assassination.

    Pence might have to resign first, I think. Then it would pass to Ryan.

    I did see a fanciful suggestion that Ryan could then, in a spirit of unity and atonement, nominate Clinton as VP and then resign in her favour. With Hillary then nominating him (or another Rep) as her VP. I did say fanciful!
    I've just place a small bet on Ryan at 59/1 to be President in 2020 on Betfair.

    If we say (generously) 2/1 on Trump not running... then Ryan would surely be one of the frontrunners for the R nomination. Not too close to Trump, but certainly not a moderate.
    I'd probably lay at that point.

    In a general election he'd probably start behind a Dem. but not by much.
    Ryan is going to get trounced by Pelosi in next year's midterms on current polls.
    Fair point. Hadn't thought of that - and may well make him damaged goods.
    There is also no way he would get past the base if he had helped get Trump impeached.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,233

    F1: already, Verstappen's odds have declined. He's just 4 for next year's title.

    I rate him highly, but if the Renault engine is good enough for him to have a shot then it's probably going to be a Hamilton, Vettel, Alonso, Verstappen fight. Now, that sounds great, but odds of 4, on a four man fight, that might not be settled until more than a year away, does not tempt.

    Quite right, Mr.D. Though on a Hamilton win...
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The scariest woman in politics (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) is up shortly to answer press questions about all this news.

    @ezraklein: Trump, April 2016: "I am self funding and will hire the best people!"

    Trump, now: My campaign manager was an international criminal *before* I hired him, what's the big deal?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    Mr. kle4, there was controversy at the finest restaurant in Jerusalem. Other patrons accused Jesus and his associates, known as 'disciples', of being obnoxiously by demanding two twelve seat tables, but taking up places only on one side. Customers were also surprised Jesus and his fellow diners chose to stand up rather than sit, and confused when Judas Iscariot referred to it as 'The Last Supper', before quickly adding "Regular supper, I meant, just like every Tuesday."
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    There has only been one recent occasion in which a VP has been nominated and confirmed upon the resignation of a sitting VP - Spiro Agnew who was replaced by Gerald Ford.

    For those interested in the timing:

    Spiro Agnew resigns: 3 October 1973
    Gerald Ford nominated: 12 October 1973
    Gerald Ford confirmed: 6 December 1973

    I had not been aware until researching these dates just now that Ford was effectively forced upon Nixon by Congressional leaders.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,233

    Nigelb said:

    Somewhat later in that thread...
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/925020228928655360
    I have taken some 1.96 on Trump not lasting his term.
    The march down to 1.01 begins! :)
    What are we going to call the TV series about the impeachment... Moscow Behind Closed Doors ?
    All The President's Conmen? White House of Cards?
    The Micturition Candidate ?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,367

    Mr. kle4, there was controversy at the finest restaurant in Jerusalem. Other patrons accused Jesus and his associates, known as 'disciples', of being obnoxiously by demanding two twelve seat tables, but taking up places only on one side. Customers were also surprised Jesus and his fellow diners chose to stand up rather than sit, and confused when Judas Iscariot referred to it as 'The Last Supper', before quickly adding "Regular supper, I meant, just like every Tuesday."

    This of course follows a history of disruptive behaviour, first noted when innocent money lenders were asssaulted about their business at the temple.
  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    If (and its a big if) sufficient number of MPs are drawn into scandal then a GE is pretty much inevitable.

    I'd made the same comments pre 2017 GE when the old spending expenses was rumbling. If enough tory MPs are implicated, by elections held AND lost then the government could change without a GE. That wouldn't be acceptable, and so the answer would have to be a General Election.

    There won't be any by-elections. The MPs will hang on for their payoff even if the whip is withdrawn. Look what happened with Natalie McGarry, Michelle Thomson or Eric Joyce
    I really do feel sorry for Michelle Thomson.
    She's been told to reapply online to join the SNP again, and since Sturgeon is a fully qualified solicitor with experience in conveyancing, it is not a given that she will be welcomed back into the fold.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    If Trump resigns, Pence becomes POTUS... I am not sure that is something anyone should wish for...

    Well I have been building a pro-Pence position for the 2020 election...
    That might benefit you personally - but a man like Pence is far scarier a prospect as POTUS than Trump is (at least to my mind)
    Morally, he ought not to succeed, given that this apparent collusion directly led to his election as VP. But unless he is personally implicated I suspect he will. Running and winning from that position would be tough but do-able in these hyperpartisan times.
    Why I am unclear about is the constitutional position if POTUS and VPOTUS resign at the same time... I guess the Speaker of the House is promoted. Anyone put money on President Ryan?
    There aren't any markets paying out on Next President, as far as I am aware. For the obvious reason that most firms don't want to effectively bet on an assassination.

    Pence might have to resign first, I think. Then it would pass to Ryan.

    I did see a fanciful suggestion that Ryan could then, in a spirit of unity and atonement, nominate Clinton as VP and then resign in her favour. With Hillary then nominating him (or another Rep) as her VP. I did say fanciful!
    Depends on sequence. If Pence goes first, Trump appoints a new VP, who then becomes President if Trump is forced out (think Nixon, Agnew and Ford).

    If Trump goes first, Pence becomes President and appoints his own VP. If he then is forced out, the new VP becomes President.

    Ryan only become President (other than being elected in his own right) if both Trump and Pence are forced out so close together they have no time to duly appoint a new VP, or if he is chosen by the second one out as that person's VP before they are forced out.

    Clear? Reminds me of the old TV show, Soap
    A new VP needs confirming by both houses to take office; it's not just a matter of appointment.
    OK. Search and replace 'appoint' with 'appoint and confirm' and my post stands.
    Yes, but confirmation takes a lot of time and wouldn't be guaranteed in such febrile circumstances, which was my point.

    In any case Pence would presumably only go first as part of a choreographed double resignation - which is unlikely anyway.
    See my post below, posted before I read this comment of yours. It may be even more out of Trump's/Pence's hands who should be the new VP than I thought ...
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,243
    edited October 2017

    Roger said:

    Vibratorgate......doesn't really work and who'd have thought a Tory MP could bring Soho into disrepute!

    Which is more disreputable Roger; asking an adult who works for you to buy sex toys, or propositioning a 14 year old you've just carried to your bed?

    Btw, it really isn't important to the question how good an actor either of the offenders are.
    If you think 18 year old prefects and 50 year old teachers were caning boys from the age of 7 upwards at most public schools during the 70's and 80's when this 'outrage' occured I'd score both a one out of ten.

    * As I understand it KS made a drunken pass at this boy who said 'no' and left. Both examples a bit sleazy but no more than that
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,233
    MTimT said:

    There has only been one recent occasion in which a VP has been nominated and confirmed upon the resignation of a sitting VP - Spiro Agnew who was replaced by Gerald Ford.

    For those interested in the timing:

    Spiro Agnew resigns: 3 October 1973
    Gerald Ford nominated: 12 October 1973
    Gerald Ford confirmed: 6 December 1973

    I had not been aware until researching these dates just now that Ford was effectively forced upon Nixon by Congressional leaders.

    Ah, old Spiro T... no relation, I hope ?
    :smile:
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Somewhat later in that thread...
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/925020228928655360
    I have taken some 1.96 on Trump not lasting his term.
    The march down to 1.01 begins! :)
    What are we going to call the TV series about the impeachment... Moscow Behind Closed Doors ?
    All The President's Conmen? White House of Cards?
    The Micturition Candidate ?
    Pence from Heaven?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,821
    edited October 2017
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Vibratorgate......doesn't really work and who'd have thought a Tory MP could bring Soho into disrepute!

    Which is more disreputable Roger; asking an adult who works for you to buy sex toys, or propositioning a 14 year old you've just carried to your bed?

    Btw, it really isn't important to the question how good an actor either of the offenders are.
    If you think 18 year old prefects and 50 year old teachers were caning boys from the age of 7 upwards at most public schools during the 70's and 80's when this 'outrage' occured I'd score both a one out of ten.

    * As I understand it KS made a drunken pass at this boy who said 'no' and left. Both a bit sleazy but no more than that
    You realise the latest accusations against Spacey are very recent.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    When did vice presidents start getting replaced? Quite a few VPs died in office early on and no one saw the need to fill their shoes.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,233
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Vibratorgate......doesn't really work and who'd have thought a Tory MP could bring Soho into disrepute!

    Which is more disreputable Roger; asking an adult who works for you to buy sex toys, or propositioning a 14 year old you've just carried to your bed?

    Btw, it really isn't important to the question how good an actor either of the offenders are.
    If you think 18 year old prefects and 50 year old teachers were caning boys from the age of 7 upwards at most public schools during the 70's and 80's when this 'outrage' occured I'd score both a one out of ten.

    * As I understand it KS made a drunken pass at this boy who said 'no' and left. Both examples a bit sleazy but no more than that
    Teachers went to prison for paedophilia back in the 80s, too, Roger.
    Though it's true a lot of schools tried to cover it up.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Vibratorgate......doesn't really work and who'd have thought a Tory MP could bring Soho into disrepute!

    Which is more disreputable Roger; asking an adult who works for you to buy sex toys, or propositioning a 14 year old you've just carried to your bed?

    Btw, it really isn't important to the question how good an actor either of the offenders are.
    If you think 18 year old prefects and 50 year old teachers were caning boys from the age of 7 upwards at most public schools during the 70's and 80's when this 'outrage' occured I'd score both a one out of ten.

    * As I understand it KS made a drunken pass at this boy who said 'no' and left. Both examples a bit sleazy but no more than that
    errr... caning boys wasn't illegal in the 70s. Sex with a minor was and is..
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Good.

    So much winning
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Vibratorgate......doesn't really work and who'd have thought a Tory MP could bring Soho into disrepute!

    Which is more disreputable Roger; asking an adult who works for you to buy sex toys, or propositioning a 14 year old you've just carried to your bed?

    Btw, it really isn't important to the question how good an actor either of the offenders are.
    If you think 18 year old prefects and 50 year old teachers were caning boys from the age of 7 upwards at most public schools during the 70's and 80's when this 'outrage' occured I'd score both a one out of ten.

    * As I understand it KS made a drunken pass at this boy who said 'no' and left. Both a bit sleazy but no more than that
    You realise the latest accusations against Spacey are very recent.
    Unless things have moved on in the past half hour or so, the recent allegations have not come from the victims - but rather from third parties. That doesn't automatically mean they are untrue - but it makes it all the more important to remember they are allegations.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,821
    edited October 2017

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Vibratorgate......doesn't really work and who'd have thought a Tory MP could bring Soho into disrepute!

    Which is more disreputable Roger; asking an adult who works for you to buy sex toys, or propositioning a 14 year old you've just carried to your bed?

    Btw, it really isn't important to the question how good an actor either of the offenders are.
    If you think 18 year old prefects and 50 year old teachers were caning boys from the age of 7 upwards at most public schools during the 70's and 80's when this 'outrage' occured I'd score both a one out of ten.

    * As I understand it KS made a drunken pass at this boy who said 'no' and left. Both a bit sleazy but no more than that
    You realise the latest accusations against Spacey are very recent.
    Unless things have moved on in the past half hour or so, the recent allegations have not come from the victims - but rather from third parties. That doesn't automatically mean they are untrue - but it makes it all the more important to remember they are allegations.
    Absolutely. That is why I said accusations and left it at that.
  • Options
    The Danish inventor Peter Madsen has admitted dismembering the body of Swedish journalist Kim Wall aboard his submarine, but denies killing her.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41804590

    Doesn't everybody do this when somebody dies from a carbon monoxide poisoning...
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    When did vice presidents start getting replaced? Quite a few VPs died in office early on and no one saw the need to fill their shoes.

    Even LBJ did not replace himself until he won reelection.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Vibratorgate......doesn't really work and who'd have thought a Tory MP could bring Soho into disrepute!

    Which is more disreputable Roger; asking an adult who works for you to buy sex toys, or propositioning a 14 year old you've just carried to your bed?

    Btw, it really isn't important to the question how good an actor either of the offenders are.
    If you think 18 year old prefects and 50 year old teachers were caning boys from the age of 7 upwards at most public schools during the 70's and 80's when this 'outrage' occured I'd score both a one out of ten.

    * As I understand it KS made a drunken pass at this boy who said 'no' and left. Both a bit sleazy but no more than that
    You realise the latest accusations against Spacey are very recent.
    Unless things have moved on in the past half hour or so, the recent allegations have not come from the victims - but rather from third parties. That doesn't automatically mean they are untrue - but it makes it all the more important to remember they are allegations.
    Absolutely. That is why I said accusations and left it at that.
    Sadly accusations made to a journalist are being treated as proof of guilt by far too many. And that is now how justice is served - for anyone.

    There are times when I think that turning off the internet for a few months might not be a bad idea.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,233

    When did vice presidents start getting replaced? Quite a few VPs died in office early on and no one saw the need to fill their shoes.

    Possibly since the advent of nuclear weapons required an unbroken chain of command be ensured ?
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    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    I suspect this is a piece of Robert Petonesque tabloid ITV news nonsense.
    1). It wouldnt be worse than the MPs expenses scandal because in that case MPs were screwing the voters not just their office staff.
    2). Opposition MPs would have to be very careful about throwing stones lest their own windows be broken.
    3). The recall of MPs law would only be triggered if an MP was sent to prison or suspended from the House by more than 21 days, AND one tenth of all voters in a constituency signed a petition for a by election.
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    French prosecutors are investigating allegations by two women who say they were raped by Tariq Ramadan, a renowned Islamic scholar and Oxford professor.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41805953
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Vibratorgate......doesn't really work and who'd have thought a Tory MP could bring Soho into disrepute!

    Which is more disreputable Roger; asking an adult who works for you to buy sex toys, or propositioning a 14 year old you've just carried to your bed?

    Btw, it really isn't important to the question how good an actor either of the offenders are.
    If you think 18 year old prefects and 50 year old teachers were caning boys from the age of 7 upwards at most public schools during the 70's and 80's when this 'outrage' occured I'd score both a one out of ten.

    * As I understand it KS made a drunken pass at this boy who said 'no' and left. Both examples a bit sleazy but no more than that
    What if this boy had felt pressured and not left; how far would Spacey have been able to go with a 14 year old for you to think it worse than "a bit sleazy"? And how far do you think Spacey wanted it to go? First base?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,074
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited October 2017
    MTimT said:

    When did vice presidents start getting replaced? Quite a few VPs died in office early on and no one saw the need to fill their shoes.

    Even LBJ did not replace himself until he won reelection.
    The 25th Amendment (ratified 1967) was introduced as a result of the Kennedy assassination (as @Nigelb suggests, the Cold War was a factor).
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    The Danish inventor Peter Madsen has admitted dismembering the body of Swedish journalist Kim Wall aboard his submarine, but denies killing her.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41804590

    Doesn't everybody do this when somebody dies from a carbon monoxide poisoning...

    Presumably, his own CO poisoning befuddled his decision-making process ...
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    Quite a high standard of scandal and subsequent proof needed to force a by election. The real danger is large numbers of MP's who've either had to resign as ministers, are no longer appoints let as ministers or who've had to announce they won't be candidates at the next GE. It gives them nothing to lose in terms of work ethic or rebellion. The length of time between now and the next GE is the real issue. An Zombie MPs after serious allegations have 4 + years to limp on.

    I see no reason this will be a partisan issue. If 11% of Tory are under suspicion the numbers won't be that different for other parties. May needs to see this as an opportunity. She's a woman herself and for all her faults doesn't seem the sort to have groped the Tea Boy. She needs to rise above it, discipline strongly, promote female candidates and open primaries for successors. He ahead of the narrative. Take back control as it were.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,821
    edited October 2017

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Vibratorgate......doesn't really work and who'd have thought a Tory MP could bring Soho into disrepute!

    Which is more disreputable Roger; asking an adult who works for you to buy sex toys, or propositioning a 14 year old you've just carried to your bed?

    Btw, it really isn't important to the question how good an actor either of the offenders are.
    If you think 18 year old prefects and 50 year old teachers were caning boys from the age of 7 upwards at most public schools during the 70's and 80's when this 'outrage' occured I'd score both a one out of ten.

    * As I understand it KS made a drunken pass at this boy who said 'no' and left. Both a bit sleazy but no more than that
    You realise the latest accusations against Spacey are very recent.
    Unless things have moved on in the past half hour or so, the recent allegations have not come from the victims - but rather from third parties. That doesn't automatically mean they are untrue - but it makes it all the more important to remember they are allegations.
    Absolutely. That is why I said accusations and left it at that.
    Sadly accusations made to a journalist are being treated as proof of guilt by far too many. And that is now how justice is served - for anyone.

    There are times when I think that turning off the internet for a few months might not be a bad idea.
    I think you are correct. I remember the expenses scandal, where the Telegraph made a lot of mistakes (and in some cases wouldn't even entertain the idea that an MP wasn't on the fiddle), but it was too late.

    One particular case I remember was an MP who got a new kitchen, where he was innocent of any wrong doing (both spirit and letter of the rules), but they wouldn't listen and printed a false story about him.

    Even the infamous duck house, we didn't actually pay for.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    Mr. kle4, indeed, and nor is it the first food furore involving the self-styled Son of God. Who can forget the widespread disappointment when he was providing catering for 5,000 people and only brought five loaves and two fish?
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    MTimT said:

    The Danish inventor Peter Madsen has admitted dismembering the body of Swedish journalist Kim Wall aboard his submarine, but denies killing her.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41804590

    Doesn't everybody do this when somebody dies from a carbon monoxide poisoning...

    Presumably, his own CO poisoning befuddled his decision-making process ...
    Must have been...and why his story has changed about 10 times.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,243

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Vibratorgate......doesn't really work and who'd have thought a Tory MP could bring Soho into disrepute!

    Which is more disreputable Roger; asking an adult who works for you to buy sex toys, or propositioning a 14 year old you've just carried to your bed?

    Btw, it really isn't important to the question how good an actor either of the offenders are.
    If you think 18 year old prefects and 50 year old teachers were caning boys from the age of 7 upwards at most public schools during the 70's and 80's when this 'outrage' occured I'd score both a one out of ten.

    * As I understand it KS made a drunken pass at this boy who said 'no' and left. Both examples a bit sleazy but no more than that
    errr... caning boys wasn't illegal in the 70s. Sex with a minor was and is..
    I thought I was judging perversion not legality.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    When did vice presidents start getting replaced? Quite a few VPs died in office early on and no one saw the need to fill their shoes.

    Even LBJ did not replace himself until he won reelection.
    The 25th Amendment (ratified 1967) was introduced as a result of the Kennedy assassination (as @Nigelb suggests, the Cold War was a factor).
    Thanks. That being the case, it probably puts pressure on Congress to act with some alacrity to confirm the nominee.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,243
    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Vibratorgate......doesn't really work and who'd have thought a Tory MP could bring Soho into disrepute!

    Which is more disreputable Roger; asking an adult who works for you to buy sex toys, or propositioning a 14 year old you've just carried to your bed?

    Btw, it really isn't important to the question how good an actor either of the offenders are.
    If you think 18 year old prefects and 50 year old teachers were caning boys from the age of 7 upwards at most public schools during the 70's and 80's when this 'outrage' occured I'd score both a one out of ten.

    * As I understand it KS made a drunken pass at this boy who said 'no' and left. Both examples a bit sleazy but no more than that
    Teachers went to prison for paedophilia back in the 80s, too, Roger.
    Though it's true a lot of schools tried to cover it up.
    That's a good point but lost in this mist of McCarthyism. A teacher or a boss has a duty of care and is abusing their position. A reasonably serious abuse. I wouldn't put making a pass at a drunken party in that category. That's why I mentioned caning. A clear abuse of those over whom you have a duty of care and in my opinion significantly more perverted.
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    I agree, 2018 looks ever more likely to be a General Election year and Laddies/Corals odds of 3/1 appear quite generous as things currently stand especially when coupled with Mrs May's worsening Brexit crisis. I've lumped on!
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292

    I agree, 2018 looks ever more likely to be a General Election year and Laddies/Corals odds of 3/1 appear quite generous as things currently stand especially when coupled with Mrs May's worsening Brexit crisis. I've lumped on!

    On the other hand:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/10/could-sexual-harassment-allegations-bring-down-conservative-government
This discussion has been closed.