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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If these rumours turn out to be accurate I can see a 2018 gene
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If these rumours turn out to be accurate I can see a 2018 general election happening
Tory MPs tell me they are deeply anxious sexual harassment scandal escalating to be worse than expenses, and devastating for May https://t.co/eroIk0FRiD
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Your coat, TSE.
Papadopolous, who was a foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign team, pleaded guilty in a case that has just been unsealed now.
The Chicago-based international energy lawyer becomes the third adviser to President Donald Trump's campaign to face criminal charges in the investigation.
If he is charged or pleads guilty then Game On.
Edit - And/Or a Trump family member
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/925009252573466625
As an aside, isn’t Peston’s accuracy since Brown’s acolytes stopped feeding him stories perhaps questionable.
@btharris93: Trump trying to fire Mueller now would be such a monumentally stupid and self-harming move, which is exactly why I can see Trump doing it.
This could be open season for those with grudges - all it needs is a couple of people to get together and cook up allegations against an MP.
That seems a rather odd expectation. How can she be 'confident' about it?
I've never directly employed anyone, but I have been a team leader. In that position I could have given you a reasonable summation of my staff's technical and work skills. I could even have told you a little about their personal lives - or at least the information they shared. But could I have been confident that none of them had ever committed sexual misconduct? No. I'd like to think they hadn't, but how would I have known? (*)
Whilst a party leader might have more clue about the lives of their candidates (or at least should have), it's impossible to say for sure that any individual does not have a hidden history.
Can the editor of the Sun be confident that none of his employees, including Mr Newton Dunn, have ever committed sexual misconduct? It'd be a 'bizarre state' if he did.
(*) There was one guy who had a restraining order against him by an ex-neighbour.
In this case, we might see some ministerial resignations/sackings and the whip being withdrawn for 3 months but think that will be it.
https://twitter.com/feeonlyplanner/status/925011145957761024
There have been hints in the press that he's looking for a pretext - like that probably planted WSJ article that Carlotta posted this morning - so it wouldn't surprise me either.
Politico has a rather interesting interview with James Clapper:
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/30/james-clapper-russia-global-politico-trump-215761
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/925006418989715456
Trial by Twitter is obnoxious and makes me despair.
If you are a victim of abuse or harassment or assault, don't go to the media. Go to the police, your employer or both - whoever is most relevant to your circumstances.
Unless we have proper investigations, we won't deal with the issue properly.
Apart form anything else, anyone claiming they were completely confident the blond beast was utterly beyond reproach would be looked at a trifle quizzically.
And does any sexual proposition which is not assented to condemn the propositioner as a pervy harasser? Had Edwina not been hot to trot on that enchanted evening long ago, would we now be debating whether Sir John Major should be stripped of his knighthood?
If you read the New Yorker story about Annabella Sciorra coming forward with the rape accusation, it gives some idea of what might be involved:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/weighing-the-costs-of-speaking-out-about-harvey-weinstein
Sciorra said that the attacks on Argento and other accusers reinforced her fears about speaking out, but they also finally made her believe that she had no choice but to do so. “The way they’re treating Asia, and the way they’re treating a lot of women, is so infuriating,” she said. The attempts to downplay the significance of Argento’s allegations made her realize the importance of her own story. “O.K., you want rape?” she said, addressing those commentators who questioned whether Argento’s experience qualified. “Here’s fucking rape.”
Virtually all the women I talked to who were struggling with whether to speak publicly said that advice from friends, loved ones, and colleagues was a deciding factor. Sciorra was one of several who told me that those they had consulted urged them to stay quiet. “I spoke with two people in the business who I’ve known for a while, and they were very clearly against me saying anything,” she told me. “And they were people I always really trusted and I respect. And they felt that no good could come out of it. Immediately, the response was ‘Stay as far away from this as possible.’ ”...
The fuss over Garnier's dildos and Gove's joke feel like exactly the same sort of distraction.
Insert appropriate emoji here.
By all means tell your story but the first people to hear that should be the police. You might not have respect for the police - but it is their role to investigate crimes and to bring charges. It is the role of the courts to hear the evidence and pass judgement.
Will that process be easy? No. Will it guarantee a conviction? No. Is it the right course of action? Yes.
The rule of law means having to go through the correct channels. Journalists and press conferences are not the way to get justice.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/02/26/labs-loss-to-the-sdp-in-the-greenwich-by-election-exactly-30-years-ago-has-lessons-for-the-party-today/
"Hopefully the truth about Kaufman might start to emerge now."
"The rumours have been circulating for years - it doesn't take much finding."
Catalonia is another sign of the problem that wealth generation is concentrated in Europe. Many of the richest parts of Europe such as Norway and Switzerland have already got a special deal. What intrigued me most was that it was not the wealth generating regions of Scotland who voted for independence or the wealth generating hubs of UK who voted for Brexit.
As a soft remainer I have always believed that it will not be TM who completes the Brexit negotiation.
Is the process likely to be messy, and create legal problems along the way ? Very likely - and it's going to take a lot of clearing up.
But I honestly think the last few days events might represent a genuine watershed in sexual politics. Without public disclosures, it likely wouldn't happen at all.
1 the DUP must agree
2 the FPTP must be overcome
3 turkeys must vote for Christmas?
Re 3, IDS, BJ, Greening probably don't know if they'll keep their seat. I imagine Rudd expects she'll lose hers. It's a big disincentive.
It might happen if the rabid Europhobe right calculate that they can increase their hold on the party by Labour taking 30 marginal Tory seats, especially in the south.
Also interesting that this didn't leak at all
But what we are seeing at the moment is a rush of people seeking a microphone first and not even allowing due process a chance to take place.
I am not questioning the validity of their allegations - I just wish they would make a statement to the police (or whoever) first and not the media. It will not make assessing the full scale of the problem any easier - and, indeed, may muddy the water.
None of this helps a rational discussion on the issue
https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/766819052656340993?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
First of all you say you dropped her off on land, then you say she hit her head, and now you say she suffered from carbon monoxide poisoning and then you dismembered her.
Quite an evolution of a story.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41804590
If only there was a way of bringing him down...
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/925020228928655360
I have taken some 1.96 on Trump not lasting his term.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-41803922
Mr. Simon, I quite agree.
On-topic: I would not be delighted with yet another election.
Hopefully the new system being outlined at the moment will improve this anomaly.
OR more accurately, George is going to be used to leverage Manafort.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/715725628465680386
I think Trump lasts till the end of his presidency, and Boris lasts the year
But Dems alone will not be enough to get rid of him.
The unknowns are:
1) is there a chance Trump will go voluntarily?
2) is there a level of evidence that would cause Republican politicians/base to abandon him?
....and I say that as someone who, many months ago, suggested there was value laying trump leaving office in 2017 @ ~3/1.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At-will_employment
Certainly not "most workplaces".
2) Yes, some are peeling off already like Senator Flake. Next year's midterms will (a) focus minds and (b) quite possibly produce a Dem House, which would surely impeach. Conviction requires a 2/3 majority in the Senate.
Btw, it really isn't important to the question how good an actor either of the offenders are.
Watch them turn on Bercow if they think it'll save their skins...