politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If these rumours turn out to be accurate I can see a 2018 general election happening
Tory MPs tell me they are deeply anxious sexual harassment scandal escalating to be worse than expenses, and devastating for May https://t.co/eroIk0FRiD
George Papadopolous has pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI, the federal special counsel just announced.
Papadopolous, who was a foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign team, pleaded guilty in a case that has just been unsealed now.
The Chicago-based international energy lawyer becomes the third adviser to President Donald Trump's campaign to face criminal charges in the investigation.
George Papadopolous has pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI, the federal special counsel just announced.
Papadopolous, who was a foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign team, pleaded guilty in a case that has just been unsealed now.
The Chicago-based international energy lawyer becomes the third adviser to President Donald Trump's campaign to face criminal charges in the investigation.
But so far none of it seems to be linked to the campaign... all very odd
George Papadopolous has pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI, the federal special counsel just announced.
Papadopolous, who was a foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign team, pleaded guilty in a case that has just been unsealed now.
The Chicago-based international energy lawyer becomes the third adviser to President Donald Trump's campaign to face criminal charges in the investigation.
George Papadopolous has pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI, the federal special counsel just announced.
Papadopolous, who was a foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign team, pleaded guilty in a case that has just been unsealed now.
The Chicago-based international energy lawyer becomes the third adviser to President Donald Trump's campaign to face criminal charges in the investigation.
Thats big... The net is closing.
The charges relate to lying to the FBI - not to his conduct during the campaign.
But so far none of it seems to be linked to the campaign... all very odd
@matthewamiller: The FBI interview where Papadopolous lied about his Russia contacts came on the same day, Jan. 27, Trump asked Comey for a loyalty pledge.
George Papadopolous has pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI, the federal special counsel just announced.
Papadopolous, who was a foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign team, pleaded guilty in a case that has just been unsealed now.
The Chicago-based international energy lawyer becomes the third adviser to President Donald Trump's campaign to face criminal charges in the investigation.
This arguably strengthens Theresa May's hand. Up till now, she has been too weak to reshuffle but now she can use these rumours and allegations to encourage (blackmail is such an ugly word) any minister she wants rid of -- even if they are not actually named.
@btharris93: Trump trying to fire Mueller now would be such a monumentally stupid and self-harming move, which is exactly why I can see Trump doing it.
The expenses issue was open and shut in the case of many MPs. There could be no dispute about whether they claimed for their duck houses or grocery bills - the receipts were there for all to see. But alleged sexual harassment is, in many cases, almost impossible to corroborate. It will be word of a lying scumbag MP against a chaste, innocent researcher or secretary who has apparently managed to work in Westminster for many years under the impression that it was inhabited solely by saintly beings who forswore all earthly temptations.
This could be open season for those with grudges - all it needs is a couple of people to get together and cook up allegations against an MP.
"PM’s official spokesman has refused to say she is confident none of her Cabinet have committed sexual misconduct. A bizarre state."
That seems a rather odd expectation. How can she be 'confident' about it?
I've never directly employed anyone, but I have been a team leader. In that position I could have given you a reasonable summation of my staff's technical and work skills. I could even have told you a little about their personal lives - or at least the information they shared. But could I have been confident that none of them had ever committed sexual misconduct? No. I'd like to think they hadn't, but how would I have known? (*)
Whilst a party leader might have more clue about the lives of their candidates (or at least should have), it's impossible to say for sure that any individual does not have a hidden history.
Can the editor of the Sun be confident that none of his employees, including Mr Newton Dunn, have ever committed sexual misconduct? It'd be a 'bizarre state' if he did.
(*) There was one guy who had a restraining order against him by an ex-neighbour.
@btharris93: Trump trying to fire Mueller now would be such a monumentally stupid and self-harming move, which is exactly why I can see Trump doing it.
Under the guise of not standing for the national anthem....
This arguably strengthens Theresa May's hand. Up till now, she has been too weak to reshuffle but now she can use these rumours and allegations to encourage (blackmail is such an ugly word) any minister she wants rid of -- even if they are not actually named.
Anyone walking would immediately be assumed to be a sex pest.
@btharris93: Trump trying to fire Mueller now would be such a monumentally stupid and self-harming move, which is exactly why I can see Trump doing it.
Apart form anything else it won't prevent indictments or prosecutions - they are likely to re-emerge at state rather than federal level. There have been hints in the press that he's looking for a pretext - like that probably planted WSJ article that Carlotta posted this morning - so it wouldn't surprise me either.
It would be comforting if lawyers subscribed to the rule of law and not the rule of the mob.
As an aside, isn’t Peston’s accuracy since Brown’s acolytes stopped feeding him stories perhaps questionable.
Absolutely. Complaints have to be made to the proper authorities, allegations then have to be properly investigated by the proper authorities and action then taken where necessary.
Trial by Twitter is obnoxious and makes me despair.
If you are a victim of abuse or harassment or assault, don't go to the media. Go to the police, your employer or both - whoever is most relevant to your circumstances.
Unless we have proper investigations, we won't deal with the issue properly.
"PM’s official spokesman has refused to say she is confident none of her Cabinet have committed sexual misconduct. A bizarre state."
That seems a rather odd expectation. How can she be 'confident' about it?
She can't. Apart form anything else, anyone claiming they were completely confident the blond beast was utterly beyond reproach would be looked at a trifle quizzically.
Who is leaking the allegations, and in such a coordinated way, and why, and why now?
Perhaps relatedly, why have Tory aides compiled a spreadsheet of Tory misdemeanours (if we believe Guido) and leaked the fact of the spreadsheet's existence?
And does any sexual proposition which is not assented to condemn the propositioner as a pervy harasser? Had Edwina not been hot to trot on that enchanted evening long ago, would we now be debating whether Sir John Major should be stripped of his knighthood?
George Papadopolous has pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI, the federal special counsel just announced.
Papadopolous, who was a foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign team, pleaded guilty in a case that has just been unsealed now.
The Chicago-based international energy lawyer becomes the third adviser to President Donald Trump's campaign to face criminal charges in the investigation.
Thats big... The net is closing.
Michael Flynn is tipping point for me.
If he is charged or pleads guilty then Game On.
Edit - And/Or a Trump family member
The first set of charges are likely also a means of increasing pressure on the rest of the crew. Flynn may yet turn informer.
Who is leaking the allegations, and in such a coordinated way, and why, and why now?
I think the Weinstein affair has led a large number of people to come forward, as there seems to be both safety in numbers, and a feeling that those who do are more likely than hitherto to be listened to.
If you read the New Yorker story about Annabella Sciorra coming forward with the rape accusation, it gives some idea of what might be involved: https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/weighing-the-costs-of-speaking-out-about-harvey-weinstein Sciorra said that the attacks on Argento and other accusers reinforced her fears about speaking out, but they also finally made her believe that she had no choice but to do so. “The way they’re treating Asia, and the way they’re treating a lot of women, is so infuriating,” she said. The attempts to downplay the significance of Argento’s allegations made her realize the importance of her own story. “O.K., you want rape?” she said, addressing those commentators who questioned whether Argento’s experience qualified. “Here’s fucking rape.” Virtually all the women I talked to who were struggling with whether to speak publicly said that advice from friends, loved ones, and colleagues was a deciding factor. Sciorra was one of several who told me that those they had consulted urged them to stay quiet. “I spoke with two people in the business who I’ve known for a while, and they were very clearly against me saying anything,” she told me. “And they were people I always really trusted and I respect. And they felt that no good could come out of it. Immediately, the response was ‘Stay as far away from this as possible.’ ”...
The expenses issue was open and shut in the case of many MPs. There could be no dispute about whether they claimed for their duck houses or grocery bills - the receipts were there for all to see. But alleged sexual harassment is, in many cases, almost impossible to corroborate. It will be word of a lying scumbag MP against a chaste, innocent researcher or secretary who has apparently managed to work in Westminster for many years under the impression that it was inhabited solely by saintly beings who forswore all earthly temptations.
This could be open season for those with grudges - all it needs is a couple of people to get together and cook up allegations against an MP.
FWIW, some politicians - in particular one or two then cabinet members - who committed what can only be described as cold-blooded fraud got away with it because DUCK HOUSE LOLZ.
The fuss over Garnier's dildos and Gove's joke feel like exactly the same sort of distraction.
Who is leaking the allegations, and in such a coordinated way, and why, and why now?
Perhaps relatedly, why have Tory aides compiled a spreadsheet of Tory misdemeanours (if we believe Guido) and leaked the fact of the spreadsheet's existence?
And does any sexual proposition which is not assented to condemn the propositioner as a pervy harasser? Had Edwina not been hot to trot on that enchanted evening long ago, would we now be debating whether Sir John Major should be stripped of his knighthood?
Oh, I do like the second paragraph there. Tenuous don't begin to describe it. Good work, you've earned your 50 cents.
Who is leaking the allegations, and in such a coordinated way, and why, and why now?
I think the Weinstein affair has led a large number of people to come forward, as there seems to be both safety in numbers, and a feeling that those who do are more likely than hitherto to be listened to.
If you read the New Yorker story about Annabella Sciorra coming forward with the rape accusation, it gives some idea of what might be involved: https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/weighing-the-costs-of-speaking-out-about-harvey-weinstein Sciorra said that the attacks on Argento and other accusers reinforced her fears about speaking out, but they also finally made her believe that she had no choice but to do so. “The way they’re treating Asia, and the way they’re treating a lot of women, is so infuriating,” she said. The attempts to downplay the significance of Argento’s allegations made her realize the importance of her own story. “O.K., you want rape?” she said, addressing those commentators who questioned whether Argento’s experience qualified. “Here’s fucking rape.” Virtually all the women I talked to who were struggling with whether to speak publicly said that advice from friends, loved ones, and colleagues was a deciding factor. Sciorra was one of several who told me that those they had consulted urged them to stay quiet. “I spoke with two people in the business who I’ve known for a while, and they were very clearly against me saying anything,” she told me. “And they were people I always really trusted and I respect. And they felt that no good could come out of it. Immediately, the response was ‘Stay as far away from this as possible.’ ”...
I struggle to see why going to the media as first port of call to make an allegation of rape is the right course of action for anyone.
By all means tell your story but the first people to hear that should be the police. You might not have respect for the police - but it is their role to investigate crimes and to bring charges. It is the role of the courts to hear the evidence and pass judgement.
Will that process be easy? No. Will it guarantee a conviction? No. Is it the right course of action? Yes.
The rule of law means having to go through the correct channels. Journalists and press conferences are not the way to get justice.
It would be comforting if lawyers subscribed to the rule of law and not the rule of the mob.
As an aside, isn’t Peston’s accuracy since Brown’s acolytes stopped feeding him stories perhaps questionable.
Absolutely. Complaints have to be made to the proper authorities, allegations then have to be properly investigated by the proper authorities and action then taken where necessary.
Trial by Twitter is obnoxious and makes me despair.
If you are a victim of abuse or harassment or assault, don't go to the media. Go to the police, your employer or both - whoever is most relevant to your circumstances.
Unless we have proper investigations, we won't deal with the issue properly.
I see you've learned something from your failed witchburning of Gerald Kaufman minutes after he died;
For most of the population this is not a big deal but it adds to the view that we cant trust the Government and politicians. As such it weakens again the chance of hard Brexit.
Catalonia is another sign of the problem that wealth generation is concentrated in Europe. Many of the richest parts of Europe such as Norway and Switzerland have already got a special deal. What intrigued me most was that it was not the wealth generating regions of Scotland who voted for independence or the wealth generating hubs of UK who voted for Brexit.
As a soft remainer I have always believed that it will not be TM who completes the Brexit negotiation.
It would be comforting if lawyers subscribed to the rule of law and not the rule of the mob.
As an aside, isn’t Peston’s accuracy since Brown’s acolytes stopped feeding him stories perhaps questionable.
Absolutely. Complaints have to be made to the proper authorities, allegations then have to be properly investigated by the proper authorities and action then taken where necessary.
Trial by Twitter is obnoxious and makes me despair.
If you are a victim of abuse or harassment or assault, don't go to the media. Go to the police, your employer or both - whoever is most relevant to your circumstances.
Unless we have proper investigations, we won't deal with the issue properly.
I see you've learned something from your failed witchburning of Gerald Kaufman minutes after he died;
For most of the population this is not a big deal but it adds to the view that we cant trust the Government and politicians. As such it weakens again the chance of hard Brexit.
Catalonia is another sign of the problem that wealth generation is concentrated in Europe. Many of the richest parts of Europe such as Norway and Switzerland have already got a special deal. What intrigued me most was that it was not the wealth generating regions of Scotland who voted for independence or the wealth generating hubs of UK who voted for Brexit.
As a soft remainer I have always believed that it will not be TM who completes the Brexit negotiation.
As a matter of genuine interest, who do you think will complete the Brexit negotiation
Who is leaking the allegations, and in such a coordinated way, and why, and why now?
I think the Weinstein affair has led a large number of people to come forward, as there seems to be both safety in numbers, and a feeling that those who do are more likely than hitherto to be listened to.
If you read the New Yorker story about Annabella Sciorra coming forward with the rape accusation, it gives some idea of what might be involved: https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/weighing-the-costs-of-speaking-out-about-harvey-weinstein ...Sciorra was one of several who told me that those they had consulted urged them to stay quiet. “I spoke with two people in the business who I’ve known for a while, and they were very clearly against me saying anything,” she told me. “And they were people I always really trusted and I respect. And they felt that no good could come out of it. Immediately, the response was ‘Stay as far away from this as possible.’ ”...
I struggle to see why going to the media as first port of call to make an allegation of rape is the right course of action for anyone.
By all means tell your story but the first people to hear that should be the police. You might not have respect for the police - but it is their role to investigate crimes and to bring charges. It is the role of the courts to hear the evidence and pass judgement.
Will that process be easy? No. Will it guarantee a conviction? No. Is it the right course of action? Yes.
The rule of law means having to go through the correct channels. Journalists and press conferences are not the way to get justice.
I think you are missing the point that a lot of people (though not Ms Sciorra) went through 'the correct channels' and got nowhere. The public outing of individuals like Weinstein is a reaction to this. Is the process likely to be messy, and create legal problems along the way ? Very likely - and it's going to take a lot of clearing up. But I honestly think the last few days events might represent a genuine watershed in sexual politics. Without public disclosures, it likely wouldn't happen at all.
So, will hard Brexit supporting papers hold back on this sex pest story, if it threatens the Government and therefore means we might get an early GE?
Surely to get an early GE
1 the DUP must agree 2 the FPTP must be overcome 3 turkeys must vote for Christmas?
Re 3, IDS, BJ, Greening probably don't know if they'll keep their seat. I imagine Rudd expects she'll lose hers. It's a big disincentive.
It might happen if the rabid Europhobe right calculate that they can increase their hold on the party by Labour taking 30 marginal Tory seats, especially in the south.
It would be comforting if lawyers subscribed to the rule of law and not the rule of the mob.
As an aside, isn’t Peston’s accuracy since Brown’s acolytes stopped feeding him stories perhaps questionable.
Absolutely. Complaints have to be made to the proper authorities, allegations then have to be properly investigated by the proper authorities and action then taken where necessary.
Trial by Twitter is obnoxious and makes me despair.
If you are a victim of abuse or harassment or assault, don't go to the media. Go to the police, your employer or both - whoever is most relevant to your circumstances.
Unless we have proper investigations, we won't deal with the issue properly.
I see you've learned something from your failed witchburning of Gerald Kaufman minutes after he died;
Who is leaking the allegations, and in such a coordinated way, and why, and why now?
I think the Weinstein affair has led a large number of people to come forward, as there seems to be both safety in numbers, and a feeling that those who do are more likely than hitherto to be listened to.
If you read the New Yorker story about Annabella Sciorra coming forward with the rape accusation, it gives some idea of what might be involved: https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/weighing-the-costs-of-speaking-out-about-harvey-weinstein ...Sciorra was one of several who told me that those they had consulted urged them to stay quiet. “I spoke with two people in the business who I’ve known for a while, and they were very clearly against me saying anything,” she told me. “And they were people I always really trusted and I respect. And they felt that no good could come out of it. Immediately, the response was ‘Stay as far away from this as possible.’ ”...
I struggle to see why going to the media as first port of call to make an allegation of rape is the right course of action for anyone.
By all means tell your story but the first people to hear that should be the police. You might not have respect for the police - but it is their role to investigate crimes and to bring charges. It is the role of the courts to hear the evidence and pass judgement.
Will that process be easy? No. Will it guarantee a conviction? No. Is it the right course of action? Yes.
The rule of law means having to go through the correct channels. Journalists and press conferences are not the way to get justice.
I think you are missing the point that a lot of people (though not Ms Sciorra) went through 'the correct channels' and got nowhere. The public outing of individuals like Weinstein is a reaction to this. Is the process likely to be messy, and create legal problems along the way ? Very likely - and it's going to take a lot of clearing up. But I honestly think the last few days events might represent a genuine watershed in sexual politics. Without public disclosures, it likely wouldn't happen at all.
I have no issue with people who have tried to make their voices heard by going through the 'correct channels' and who have been let down by the system seeking other ways of obtaining justice.
But what we are seeing at the moment is a rush of people seeking a microphone first and not even allowing due process a chance to take place.
I am not questioning the validity of their allegations - I just wish they would make a statement to the police (or whoever) first and not the media. It will not make assessing the full scale of the problem any easier - and, indeed, may muddy the water.
It would be comforting if lawyers subscribed to the rule of law and not the rule of the mob.
As an aside, isn’t Peston’s accuracy since Brown’s acolytes stopped feeding him stories perhaps questionable.
Absolutely. Complaints have to be made to the proper authorities, allegations then have to be properly investigated by the proper authorities and action then taken where necessary.
Trial by Twitter is obnoxious and makes me despair.
If you are a victim of abuse or harassment or assault, don't go to the media. Go to the police, your employer or both - whoever is most relevant to your circumstances.
Unless we have proper investigations, we won't deal with the issue properly.
I see you've learned something from your failed witchburning of Gerald Kaufman minutes after he died;
First of all you say you dropped her off on land, then you say she hit her head, and now you say she suffered from carbon monoxide poisoning and then you dismembered her.
Who is leaking the allegations, and in such a coordinated way, and why, and why now?
I think the Weinstein affair has led a large number of people to come forward, as there seems to be both safety in numbers, and a feeling that those who do are more likely than hitherto to be listened to.
I struggle to see why going to the media as first port of call to make an allegation of rape is the right course of action for anyone.
By all means tell your story but the first people to hear that should be the police. You might not have respect for the police - but it is their role to investigate crimes and to bring charges. It is the role of the courts to hear the evidence and pass judgement.
Will that process be easy? No. Will it guarantee a conviction? No. Is it the right course of action? Yes.
The rule of law means having to go through the correct channels. Journalists and press conferences are not the way to get justice.
I think you are missing the point that a lot of people (though not Ms Sciorra) went through 'the correct channels' and got nowhere. The public outing of individuals like Weinstein is a reaction to this. Is the process likely to be messy, and create legal problems along the way ? Very likely - and it's going to take a lot of clearing up. But I honestly think the last few days events might represent a genuine watershed in sexual politics. Without public disclosures, it likely wouldn't happen at all.
I have no issue with people who have tried to make their voices heard by going through the 'correct channels' and who have been let down by the system seeking other ways of obtaining justice.
But what we are seeing at the moment is a rush of people seeking a microphone first and not even allowing due process a chance to take place.
I am not questioning the validity of their allegations - I just wish they would make a statement to the police (or whoever) first and not the media. It will not make assessing the full scale of the problem any easier - and, indeed, may muddy the water.
That's rather the problem, though. In the case of MP's, if it doesn't rise to the level of police matter, then the "or whoever" is the MPs themselves.
Who is leaking the allegations, and in such a coordinated way, and why, and why now?
I think the Weinstein affair has led a large number of people to come forward, as there seems to be both safety in numbers, and a feeling that those who do are more likely than hitherto to be listened to.
I struggle to see why going to the media as first port of call to make an allegation of rape is the right course of action for anyone.
By all means tell your story but the first people to hear that should be the police. You might not have respect for the police - but it is their role to investigate crimes and to bring charges. It is the role of the courts to hear the evidence and pass judgement.
Will that process be easy? No. Will it guarantee a conviction? No. Is it the right course of action? Yes.
The rule of law means having to go through the correct channels. Journalists and press conferences are not the way to get justice.
I think you are missing the point that a lot of people (though not Ms Sciorra) went through 'the correct channels' and got nowhere. The public outing of individuals like Weinstein is a reaction to this.
But I honestly think the last few days events might represent a genuine watershed in sexual politics. Without public disclosures, it likely wouldn't happen at all.
I have no issue with people who have tried to make their voices heard by going through the 'correct channels' and who have been let down by the system seeking other ways of obtaining justice.
But what we are seeing at the moment is a rush of people seeking a microphone first and not even allowing due process a chance to take place.
I am not questioning the validity of their allegations - I just wish they would make a statement to the police (or whoever) first and not the media. It will not make assessing the full scale of the problem any easier - and, indeed, may muddy the water.
That's rather the problem, though. In the case of MP's, if it doesn't rise to the level of police matter, then the "or whoever" is the MPs themselves.
Yes, the status of MPs does make this all the more complicated. They have a unique position in our system and it makes it harder for their employees.
Hopefully the new system being outlined at the moment will improve this anomaly.
Who is leaking the allegations, and in such a coordinated way, and why, and why now?
Perhaps relatedly, why have Tory aides compiled a spreadsheet of Tory misdemeanours (if we believe Guido) and leaked the fact of the spreadsheet's existence?
And does any sexual proposition which is not assented to condemn the propositioner as a pervy harasser? Had Edwina not been hot to trot on that enchanted evening long ago, would we now be debating whether Sir John Major should be stripped of his knighthood?
Oh, I do like the second paragraph there. Tenuous don't begin to describe it. Good work, you've earned your 50 cents.
What? Tenuous in relation to what, why 50 cents, and why cents? It was a genuine question, and you are a jerk.
I feel very confident enough evidence will come out of this for Dems to impeach Trump. But Dems alone will not be enough to get rid of him.
The unknowns are: 1) is there a chance Trump will go voluntarily? 2) is there a level of evidence that would cause Republican politicians/base to abandon him?
If I were May Garnier wouldn't have the chance to resign. I'd sack him.
In most workplaces suspension would take place , then a hearing .I would not want to see summary sackings , without allegations been heard .
I'm not sure such standards apply to ministerial appointments - the PM's powers to hire and fire are more like the US 'hire at will' standards - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At-will_employment
I feel very confident enough evidence will come out of this for Dems to impeach Trump. But Dems alone will not be enough to get rid of him.
The unknowns are: 1) is there a chance Trump will go voluntarily? 2) is there a level of evidence that would cause Republican politicians/base to abandon him?
1) Slim. If he had a guarantee that Pence would pardon him, perhaps?
2) Yes, some are peeling off already like Senator Flake. Next year's midterms will (a) focus minds and (b) quite possibly produce a Dem House, which would surely impeach. Conviction requires a 2/3 majority in the Senate.
Comments
Your coat, TSE.
Papadopolous, who was a foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign team, pleaded guilty in a case that has just been unsealed now.
The Chicago-based international energy lawyer becomes the third adviser to President Donald Trump's campaign to face criminal charges in the investigation.
If he is charged or pleads guilty then Game On.
Edit - And/Or a Trump family member
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/925009252573466625
As an aside, isn’t Peston’s accuracy since Brown’s acolytes stopped feeding him stories perhaps questionable.
@btharris93: Trump trying to fire Mueller now would be such a monumentally stupid and self-harming move, which is exactly why I can see Trump doing it.
This could be open season for those with grudges - all it needs is a couple of people to get together and cook up allegations against an MP.
That seems a rather odd expectation. How can she be 'confident' about it?
I've never directly employed anyone, but I have been a team leader. In that position I could have given you a reasonable summation of my staff's technical and work skills. I could even have told you a little about their personal lives - or at least the information they shared. But could I have been confident that none of them had ever committed sexual misconduct? No. I'd like to think they hadn't, but how would I have known? (*)
Whilst a party leader might have more clue about the lives of their candidates (or at least should have), it's impossible to say for sure that any individual does not have a hidden history.
Can the editor of the Sun be confident that none of his employees, including Mr Newton Dunn, have ever committed sexual misconduct? It'd be a 'bizarre state' if he did.
(*) There was one guy who had a restraining order against him by an ex-neighbour.
In this case, we might see some ministerial resignations/sackings and the whip being withdrawn for 3 months but think that will be it.
https://twitter.com/feeonlyplanner/status/925011145957761024
There have been hints in the press that he's looking for a pretext - like that probably planted WSJ article that Carlotta posted this morning - so it wouldn't surprise me either.
Politico has a rather interesting interview with James Clapper:
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/30/james-clapper-russia-global-politico-trump-215761
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/925006418989715456
Trial by Twitter is obnoxious and makes me despair.
If you are a victim of abuse or harassment or assault, don't go to the media. Go to the police, your employer or both - whoever is most relevant to your circumstances.
Unless we have proper investigations, we won't deal with the issue properly.
Apart form anything else, anyone claiming they were completely confident the blond beast was utterly beyond reproach would be looked at a trifle quizzically.
And does any sexual proposition which is not assented to condemn the propositioner as a pervy harasser? Had Edwina not been hot to trot on that enchanted evening long ago, would we now be debating whether Sir John Major should be stripped of his knighthood?
If you read the New Yorker story about Annabella Sciorra coming forward with the rape accusation, it gives some idea of what might be involved:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/weighing-the-costs-of-speaking-out-about-harvey-weinstein
Sciorra said that the attacks on Argento and other accusers reinforced her fears about speaking out, but they also finally made her believe that she had no choice but to do so. “The way they’re treating Asia, and the way they’re treating a lot of women, is so infuriating,” she said. The attempts to downplay the significance of Argento’s allegations made her realize the importance of her own story. “O.K., you want rape?” she said, addressing those commentators who questioned whether Argento’s experience qualified. “Here’s fucking rape.”
Virtually all the women I talked to who were struggling with whether to speak publicly said that advice from friends, loved ones, and colleagues was a deciding factor. Sciorra was one of several who told me that those they had consulted urged them to stay quiet. “I spoke with two people in the business who I’ve known for a while, and they were very clearly against me saying anything,” she told me. “And they were people I always really trusted and I respect. And they felt that no good could come out of it. Immediately, the response was ‘Stay as far away from this as possible.’ ”...
The fuss over Garnier's dildos and Gove's joke feel like exactly the same sort of distraction.
Insert appropriate emoji here.
By all means tell your story but the first people to hear that should be the police. You might not have respect for the police - but it is their role to investigate crimes and to bring charges. It is the role of the courts to hear the evidence and pass judgement.
Will that process be easy? No. Will it guarantee a conviction? No. Is it the right course of action? Yes.
The rule of law means having to go through the correct channels. Journalists and press conferences are not the way to get justice.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/02/26/labs-loss-to-the-sdp-in-the-greenwich-by-election-exactly-30-years-ago-has-lessons-for-the-party-today/
"Hopefully the truth about Kaufman might start to emerge now."
"The rumours have been circulating for years - it doesn't take much finding."
Catalonia is another sign of the problem that wealth generation is concentrated in Europe. Many of the richest parts of Europe such as Norway and Switzerland have already got a special deal. What intrigued me most was that it was not the wealth generating regions of Scotland who voted for independence or the wealth generating hubs of UK who voted for Brexit.
As a soft remainer I have always believed that it will not be TM who completes the Brexit negotiation.
Is the process likely to be messy, and create legal problems along the way ? Very likely - and it's going to take a lot of clearing up.
But I honestly think the last few days events might represent a genuine watershed in sexual politics. Without public disclosures, it likely wouldn't happen at all.
1 the DUP must agree
2 the FPTP must be overcome
3 turkeys must vote for Christmas?
Re 3, IDS, BJ, Greening probably don't know if they'll keep their seat. I imagine Rudd expects she'll lose hers. It's a big disincentive.
It might happen if the rabid Europhobe right calculate that they can increase their hold on the party by Labour taking 30 marginal Tory seats, especially in the south.
Also interesting that this didn't leak at all
But what we are seeing at the moment is a rush of people seeking a microphone first and not even allowing due process a chance to take place.
I am not questioning the validity of their allegations - I just wish they would make a statement to the police (or whoever) first and not the media. It will not make assessing the full scale of the problem any easier - and, indeed, may muddy the water.
None of this helps a rational discussion on the issue
https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/766819052656340993?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
First of all you say you dropped her off on land, then you say she hit her head, and now you say she suffered from carbon monoxide poisoning and then you dismembered her.
Quite an evolution of a story.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41804590
If only there was a way of bringing him down...
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/925020228928655360
I have taken some 1.96 on Trump not lasting his term.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-41803922
Mr. Simon, I quite agree.
On-topic: I would not be delighted with yet another election.
Hopefully the new system being outlined at the moment will improve this anomaly.
OR more accurately, George is going to be used to leverage Manafort.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/715725628465680386
I think Trump lasts till the end of his presidency, and Boris lasts the year
But Dems alone will not be enough to get rid of him.
The unknowns are:
1) is there a chance Trump will go voluntarily?
2) is there a level of evidence that would cause Republican politicians/base to abandon him?
....and I say that as someone who, many months ago, suggested there was value laying trump leaving office in 2017 @ ~3/1.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At-will_employment
Certainly not "most workplaces".
2) Yes, some are peeling off already like Senator Flake. Next year's midterms will (a) focus minds and (b) quite possibly produce a Dem House, which would surely impeach. Conviction requires a 2/3 majority in the Senate.
Btw, it really isn't important to the question how good an actor either of the offenders are.
Watch them turn on Bercow if they think it'll save their skins...