Re service companies, not that I have one, but they actually pay a higher marginal tax rate - 20% corporation tax followed up by 32.5% or 38.1% on whats left after corporation tax, so effectively 46% or 50.48%, which is higher than PAYE. But there isn't any NI, which is where they gain, plus you can control when you take money out to smooth things out between tax years. But IR35 is being applied in a fairly random way and often it doesn't reflect the real business relationship.
Berliner can mean both a type of doughnut or a newspaper size (eg the Guardian is Berliner size)
Always awkward when you have to explain the joke - as Gove has recently found.
The Guardian and Observer will relaunch in a tabloid format next year as part of a three-year plan to break even in their finances.
Guardian Media Group (GMG), the parent company of the Guardian and Observer print and digital businesses, has decided to move from its Berliner newspaper format to the smaller size as part of a major cost-saving drive.
bugger. As a Gradianista I'd prefer that they'd cut down on junk but leave the size. Decent broadsheet size is one thing Murdoch has preserved for the Times. The FT's OK and the New York Times International too.
The Times went tabloid 13 years ago!
Broadsheet was actually a hangover from the stamp tax, where you paid the duty by the sheet. That ended in 1855. Tabloid is more user friendly and cheaper which is why it's generally more popular.
As it happens I like Berliner format too but I can see the logic of going tabloid.
Thanks for that. I never now read the Times, but I did in the sixties. It really was a good size then.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
The deficit is somewhat better than it was in 2010, the weak £ should help the current account deficit a bit and of course I seem to remember you voted to Leave the EU before moving to your present abode in California!
The problem with currency depreciation is the debts outside the country denominated in Dollar, Euro and Yen for instance become bigger as a proportion to the UK economy than they were when sterling was stronger. What you really need to do is cut consumption on imports and export more, so good luck to the UK getting all these new free trade treaties signed in weeks (Rather than years as is normally the case).
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Indeed, the day of reckoning is going to be horrible. I read somewhere the UK has £10 trillion of external liabilities, second only to the USA. The USA is a much bigger economy though!
The UK economy is roughly the same as that of California I believe. CA functions coherently with the rest of the USA of course. Who will we resonate with?
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
The deficit is somewhat better than it was in 2010, the weak £ should help the current account deficit a bit and of course I seem to remember you voted to Leave the EU before moving to your present abode in California!
I struggle to see why having a dim view of the UK economy should have compelled someone to vote Remain. The only reason to do so was so that when the recession comes, it can't be blamed on leaving the EU.
It certainly does not make things much easier from an economic point of view, though I accept some Leavers put sovereignty and reducing immigration first.
If the recession comes before the next general election it may ensure a Corbyn government, if it comes after the next general election and there is a weak Corbyn administration it may ensure a very quick revival for the Tory opposition.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Indeed, the day of reckoning is going to be horrible. I read somewhere the UK has £10 trillion of external liabilities, second only to the USA. The USA is a much bigger economy though!
Predicting a horrible recession is like predicting that you are going to die, probably in great pain, vomiting your own feces, stricken with guilt and shock.
In every case you are "amazingly" proven correct, because that is how death commonly happens, and death - in some form - happens to us all.
Ignore.
The UK economy does have a problem in the amount of indebtedness households have entered into over the economic cycle. It is the proportional level of debt to households income which is the real problem. It is perfectly natural for this proportion of debt to rise but it is the sustainability in this case which is the problem. I don't think a good dose of inflation would solve it as peoples incomes would rise to diminish the ratio of debt to income but would likely lead to British workers pricing themselves out of a job as the UK is an open economy.
I say this in isolation to Brexit, the UK is not an economy in robust health.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Indeed, the day of reckoning is going to be horrible. I read somewhere the UK has £10 trillion of external liabilities, second only to the USA. The USA is a much bigger economy though!
Predicting a horrible recession is like predicting that you are going to die, probably in great pain, vomiting your own feces, stricken with guilt and shock.
In every case you are "amazingly" proven correct, because that is how death commonly happens, and death - in some form - happens to us all.
Ignore.
I don't think most people die 'vomiting their own faeces' even if it is obviously not a particularly pleasant experience.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
The deficit is somewhat better than it was in 2010, the weak £ should help the current account deficit a bit and of course I seem to remember you voted to Leave the EU before moving to your present abode in California!
The problem with currency depreciation is the debts outside the country denominated in Dollar, Euro and Yen for instance become bigger as a proportion to the UK economy than they were when sterling was stronger. What you really need to do is cut consumption on imports and export more, so good luck to the UK getting all these new free trade treaties signed in weeks (Rather than years as is normally the case).
The low £ increases tourism, makes imports more expensive and exports cheaper so on the current account front should help.
Indeed arguably a FTA may hit the current account as although it would benefit manufacturing we have a deficit on the current account there and a surplus in services, only staying in the single market would help the latter.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
I have to say I almost have more respect for Alistair Meeks and William Glenn on that front, at least they are staying here and whinging and as staunch Remainers always predicted gloom from Brexit, RCS voted Leave then moved to California and is now predicting gloom while typing by the pool, not much Dunkirk spirit there.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Indeed, the day of reckoning is going to be horrible. I read somewhere the UK has £10 trillion of external liabilities, second only to the USA. The USA is a much bigger economy though!
Predicting a horrible recession is like predicting that you are going to die, probably in great pain, vomiting your own feces, stricken with guilt and shock.
In every case you are "amazingly" proven correct, because that is how death commonly happens, and death - in some form - happens to us all.
Ignore.
I don't think most people die 'vomiting their own faeces' even if it is obviously not a particularly pleasant experience.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Indeed, the day of reckoning is going to be horrible. I read somewhere the UK has £10 trillion of external liabilities, second only to the USA. The USA is a much bigger economy though!
Predicting a horrible recession is like predicting that you are going to die, probably in great pain, vomiting your own feces, stricken with guilt and shock.
In every case you are "amazingly" proven correct, because that is how death commonly happens, and death - in some form - happens to us all.
Ignore.
I don't think most people die 'vomiting their own faeces' even if it is obviously not a particularly pleasant experience.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Indeed, the day of reckoning is going to be horrible. I read somewhere the UK has £10 trillion of external liabilities, second only to the USA. The USA is a much bigger economy though!
Predicting a horrible recession is like predicting that you are going to die, probably in great pain, vomiting your own feces, stricken with guilt and shock.
In every case you are "amazingly" proven correct, because that is how death commonly happens, and death - in some form - happens to us all.
Ignore.
The UK economy does have a problem in the amount of indebtedness households have entered into over the economic cycle. It is the proportional level of debt to households income which is the real problem. It is perfectly natural for this proportion of debt to rise but it is the sustainability in this case which is the problem. I don't think a good dose of inflation would solve it as peoples incomes would rise to diminish the ratio of debt to income but would likely lead to British workers pricing themselves out of a job as the UK is an open economy.
I say this in isolation to Brexit, the UK is not an economy in robust health.
Though the UK economy is likely to become a bit less open than it was pre Brexit.
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Indeed.
Its been twenty years of overconsumption and movement to a rentier economy.
1998 Last month of trade surplus 2000 Industrial production peaks 2002 Government debt as a percentage of GDP starts to increase 2003 Home ownership starts to fall 2006 Productivity stagnation begins 2008 Earnings stagnation begins
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
Other than the climate and standard of living ?
Looking at recent pictures of Robert sporting a mullet and looking like a hippy gone stale I am not sure how long they will allow him to stay
(Be grateful Robert that I am not posting the pictures as I threatened )
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
I have to say I almost have more respect for Alistair Meeks and William Glenn on that front, at least they are staying here and whinging and as staunch Remainers always predicted gloom from Brexit, RCS voted Leave then moved to California and is now predicting gloom while typing by the pool, not much Dunkirk spirit there.
TBF @rcs1000 employer relocated to LA. And his economic projections aren't much to do with Brexit
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Indeed.
Its been twenty years of overconsumption and movement to a rentier economy.
1998 Last month of trade surplus 2000 Industrial production peaks 2002 Government debt as a percentage of GDP starts to increase 2003 Home ownership starts to fall 2006 Productivity stagnation begins 2008 Earnings stagnation begins
And do you know who's going to suffer the most ?
Middle class wealth consumers.
The sort of people who support unlimited immigration because "the locals aren't willing to do the work".
And in a few years they'll be competing for low grade service sector work against those same immigrants who are willing to work harder and for lower pay than they are.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
I have to say I almost have more respect for Alistair Meeks and William Glenn on that front, at least they are staying here and whinging and as staunch Remainers always predicted gloom from Brexit, RCS voted Leave then moved to California and is now predicting gloom while typing by the pool, not much Dunkirk spirit there.
TBF @rcs1000 employer relocated to LA. And his economic projections aren't much to do with Brexit
Fair enough but even so it is a bit off predicting relentless gloom and doom for Brexit Britain having voted for Brexit and then moved thousands of miles away, at least trying one or two positives about the future of the economy would be polite.
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
I seem to remember we had a recession after the 2008 crash many of the consequences of which, particularly low wages, we are still coping with.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Indeed, the day of reckoning is going to be horrible. I read somewhere the UK has £10 trillion of external liabilities, second only to the USA. The USA is a much bigger economy though!
Predicting a horrible recession is like predicting that you are going to die, probably in great pain, vomiting your own feces, stricken with guilt and shock.
In every case you are "amazingly" proven correct, because that is how death commonly happens, and death - in some form - happens to us all.
Ignore.
I don't think most people die 'vomiting their own faeces' even if it is obviously not a particularly pleasant experience.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Indeed, the day of reckoning is going to be horrible. I read somewhere the UK has £10 trillion of external liabilities, second only to the USA. The USA is a much bigger economy though!
Predicting a horrible recession is like predicting that you are going to die, probably in great pain, vomiting your own feces, stricken with guilt and shock.
In every case you are "amazingly" proven correct, because that is how death commonly happens, and death - in some form - happens to us all.
Ignore.
I don't think most people die 'vomiting their own faeces' even if it is obviously not a particularly pleasant experience.
It's better than vomiting someone else's faeces.
I'd imagine.
I expect only Hannibal Lecter has experienced that.
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
I seem to remember we had a recession after the 2008 crash many of the consequences of which, particularly low wages, we are still coping with.
Yes and instead of allowing prices to fall and bad businesses to go bust they propped it all up with more cheap credit.
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
I seem to remember we had a recession after the 2008 crash many of the consequences of which, particularly low wages, we are still coping with.
And instead of learning about the dangerous of debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means our government decided what we needed was even more debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means.
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
I seem to remember we had a recession after the 2008 crash many of the consequences of which, particularly low wages, we are still coping with.
Yes and instead of allowing prices to fall and bad businesses to go bust they propped it all up with more cheap credit.
Well Brown of course bailed out all the banks and building societies, as I have said before George W Bush at least let Lehmans go bust (though to be fair we have seen Woolworths, BHS, HMV Group etc all go under since 2008).
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
Other than the climate and standard of living ?
Remind me why I am in London again...
LA doesn't have a proper river to build bridges across.... ?
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Indeed, the day of reckoning is going to be horrible. I read somewhere the UK has £10 trillion of external liabilities, second only to the USA. The USA is a much bigger economy though!
Predicting a horrible recession is like predicting that you are going to die, probably in great pain, vomiting your own feces, stricken with guilt and shock.
In every case you are "amazingly" proven correct, because that is how death commonly happens, and death - in some form - happens to us all.
Ignore.
The representative from the Fed admitted to a Senate committee recently that they had misplaced a $trillion, and they had no idea what had happened to it. When you think of all the £'s and $'s that have been created electronically as a result of the value of loans based on little or no collateral, then you have to start to worry.....
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
I seem to remember we had a recession after the 2008 crash many of the consequences of which, particularly low wages, we are still coping with.
And instead of learning about the dangerous of debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means our government decided what we needed was even more debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means.
We have had 7 years of austerity since 2010, though I agree we need more affordable housing.
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
I seem to remember we had a recession after the 2008 crash many of the consequences of which, particularly low wages, we are still coping with.
And instead of learning about the dangerous of debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means our government decided what we needed was even more debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means.
We have had 7 years of austerity since 2010, though I agree we need more affordable housing.
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
I commute in to central London from Epping in Essex on about that on the Central Line, though if you don't want to move near London permanently it is probably not worth it for under £50k I agree.
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
I seem to remember we had a recession after the 2008 crash many of the consequences of which, particularly low wages, we are still coping with.
And instead of learning about the dangerous of debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means our government decided what we needed was even more debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means.
We have had 7 years of austerity since 2010, though I agree we need more affordable housing.
We have not had austerity.
Spending as a percentage of gdp is now 42% from 49% in 2010, public sector wages have been capped at 1% for 7 years, well below inflation, the local government workforce has fallen by about 40% etc
Wow! May has left herself wide open with that comment about sex pests!
This is going to be like back to basics where everything is under suspicion by every Tom, Dick or Harry who makes up the payroll vote in parliament. I bet Corbyn cannot believe his luck. Labour are going to hound ministers to death. Another own goal by May - she really is not very good at politics.
Wow! May has left herself wide open with that comment about sex pests!
This is going to be like back to basics where everything is under suspicion by every Tom, Dick or Harry who makes up the payroll vote in parliament. I bet Corbyn cannot believe his luck. Labour are going to hound ministers to death. Another own goal by May - she really is not very good at politics.
Given the O'Mara news I don't think Corbyn can really be throwing too much dirt on that front, especially given John Mann's comments about the activities of some Labour MPs.
Wow! May has left herself wide open with that comment about sex pests!
This is going to be like back to basics where everything is under suspicion by every Tom, Dick or Harry who makes up the payroll vote in parliament. I bet Corbyn cannot believe his luck. Labour are going to hound ministers to death. Another own goal by May - she really is not very good at politics.
It depends if you get out in front of an issue. Cameron did it with expenses, he devised a plan, made a big show and got out in front and chucked some under the bus to make the point....However this is Mrs may we are taking about...
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
I seem to remember we had a recession after the 2008 crash many of the consequences of which, particularly low wages, we are still coping with.
And instead of learning about the dangerous of debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means our government decided what we needed was even more debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means.
We have had 7 years of austerity since 2010, though I agree we need more affordable housing.
We have not had austerity.
Spending as a percentage of gdp is now 42% from 49% in 2010, public sector wages have been capped at 1% for 7 years, well below inflation, the local government workforce has fallen by about 40% etc
And the triple lock has meant that the focus of spending cuts has been felt more by those under 65.
Wow! May has left herself wide open with that comment about sex pests!
This is going to be like back to basics where everything is under suspicion by every Tom, Dick or Harry who makes up the payroll vote in parliament. I bet Corbyn cannot believe his luck. Labour are going to hound ministers to death. Another own goal by May - she really is not very good at politics.
Corbyn has just the same problems - the media confirm it is across all parties
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
Yes, I've been moving around for work reasons. In Holloway, a faIrly downmarket part of London, I was paying £1400/month for a 1-bedroom flat above a shop, and there was nothing significantly cheaper nearby. In Nottingham, I was paying £500/month for a 2-bed flat. I'm now moving to Haslemere, where I'll be paying £1050/month for a 2-bed flat. Nottingham seemed insanely cheap by comparison, and once HS2 is working I expect plenty of people will commute from there until prices go up. It's all a bit mad.
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
I seem to remember we had a recession after the 2008 crash many of the consequences of which, particularly low wages, we are still coping with.
And instead of learning about the dangerous of debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means our government decided what we needed was even more debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means.
We have had 7 years of austerity since 2010, though I agree we need more affordable housing.
We have not had austerity.
Spending as a percentage of gdp is now 42% from 49% in 2010, public sector wages have been capped at 1% for 7 years, well below inflation, the local government workforce has fallen by about 40% etc
And the triple lock has meant that the focus of spending cuts has been felt more by those under 65.
Which the voters themselves decided not to change after depriving Mrs May of her majority when she proposed to end the triple lock and winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners.
Wow! May has left herself wide open with that comment about sex pests!
This is going to be like back to basics where everything is under suspicion by every Tom, Dick or Harry who makes up the payroll vote in parliament. I bet Corbyn cannot believe his luck. Labour are going to hound ministers to death. Another own goal by May - she really is not very good at politics.
Given the O'Mara news I don't think Corbyn can really be throwing too much dirt on that front, especially given John Mann's comments about the activities of some Labour MPs.
One of the bonuses Corbyn has, is that he wasn't in charge of the Labour Party when all the shenanigans took place, and most of the LP MP's involved are in Westminster due to New Labour. I don't think many of the new generation would be crying at their disappearance.
Wow! May has left herself wide open with that comment about sex pests!
This is going to be like back to basics where everything is under suspicion by every Tom, Dick or Harry who makes up the payroll vote in parliament. I bet Corbyn cannot believe his luck. Labour are going to hound ministers to death. Another own goal by May - she really is not very good at politics.
Given the O'Mara news I don't think Corbyn can really be throwing too much dirt on that front, especially given John Mann's comments about the activities of some Labour MPs.
One of the bonuses Corbyn has, is that he wasn't in charge of the Labour Party when all the shenanigans took place, and most of the LP MP's involved are in Westminster due to New Labour. I don't think many of the new generation would be crying at their disappearance.
Just as a matter of interest do you think this is historic or continues throughout all parties even now
Wow! May has left herself wide open with that comment about sex pests!
This is going to be like back to basics where everything is under suspicion by every Tom, Dick or Harry who makes up the payroll vote in parliament. I bet Corbyn cannot believe his luck. Labour are going to hound ministers to death. Another own goal by May - she really is not very good at politics.
Given the O'Mara news I don't think Corbyn can really be throwing too much dirt on that front, especially given John Mann's comments about the activities of some Labour MPs.
One of the bonuses Corbyn has, is that he wasn't in charge of the Labour Party when all the shenanigans took place, and most of the LP MP's involved are in Westminster due to New Labour. I don't think many of the new generation would be crying at their disappearance.
Jared O'Mara backed Corbyn for the leadership in 2015, he is in Parliament because of Momentum not New Labour.
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
I seem to remember we had a recession after the 2008 crash many of the consequences of which, particularly low wages, we are still coping with.
And instead of learning about the dangerous of debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means our government decided what we needed was even more debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means.
We have had 7 years of austerity since 2010, though I agree we need more affordable housing.
We have not had austerity.
Spending as a percentage of gdp is now 42% from 49% in 2010, public sector wages have been capped at 1% for 7 years, well below inflation, the local government workforce has fallen by about 40% etc
And the triple lock has meant that the focus of spending cuts has been felt more by those under 65.
Which the voters themselves decided not to change after depriving Mrs May of her majority when she proposed to end the triple lock and winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners.
That is to make the mistake of treating 'the voters' as a single sentient being.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
Yes, I've been moving around for work reasons. In Holloway, a faIrly downmarket part of London, I was paying £1400/month for a 1-bedroom flat above a shop, and there was nothing significantly cheaper nearby. In Nottingham, I was paying £500/month for a 2-bed flat. I'm now moving to Haslemere, where I'll be paying £1050/month for a 2-bed flat. Nottingham seemed insanely cheap by comparison, and once HS2 is working I expect plenty of people will commute from there until prices go up. It's all a bit mad.
Haslemere is lovely. I lived there for a while and commuted, but at the time my work only required me to be in london two or three times a week. I think the cost of the commute plus the extra time on every day would have made things prohibitively expensive on a five day week, although I know quite a few people who work in London and live out by Guildford way. It is all a trade off I suppose. I imagine a flat like mine rents at around £1500 per month but for me the ability to fall out of bed and be at my desk in forty five minutes is worth every penny.
However what London is becoming truly terrifies me. I read 'This is London' by Ben Judah recently (recommended by someone on here - I can't quite remember who though, sorry), and it makes me think I need to get out of this place sooner rather than later.
The city is dividing, stratifying, becoming more like a Dubai or Doha where you have the very rich and the very poor and very little in between, and also a great deal of stratification based on race. This is not a city I feel comfortable in any more - not because I'm afraid of hearing "foreign voices" on the tube, but rather because I feel deeply uncomfortable with the widening gulf between rich and poor and the ghettoisation of certain areas based on race/religion, as laid out in Ben Judah's book.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
Hardly running away. The vast bulk of my assets are in the UK. My family home is in the UK.
One of the problems with discourse in a time of Brexit, is that genuine issues are waved away as "whingeing" or "defeatism".
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
Difficult one, might be worth taking the hit if the job would lead to significant progression in your industry. The reason I eventually gave up on London was I realised that my earning potential in London wasn't ever going to be good enough to buy a nice flat (of the kind that I could have rented for £800/pcm a decade before), without taking on unacceptable personal financial risk.
I worked out I could get to £60k and possibly more than that, but in London that's peanuts. I ended up moving out of London, taking a salary cut to £32k but with a mortgage of £580 per month it works out much better, all in all.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
Yes, I've been moving around for work reasons. In Holloway, a faIrly downmarket part of London, I was paying £1400/month for a 1-bedroom flat above a shop, and there was nothing significantly cheaper nearby. In Nottingham, I was paying £500/month for a 2-bed flat. I'm now moving to Haslemere, where I'll be paying £1050/month for a 2-bed flat. Nottingham seemed insanely cheap by comparison, and once HS2 is working I expect plenty of people will commute from there until prices go up. It's all a bit mad.
Haslemere is lovely. I lived there for a while and commuted, but at the time my work only required me to be in london two or three times a week. I think the cost of the commute plus the extra time on every day would have made things prohibitively expensive on a five day week, although I know quite a few people who work in London and live out by Guildford way. It is all a trade off I suppose. I imagine a flat like mine rents at around £1500 per month but for me the ability to fall out of bed and be at my desk in forty five minutes is worth every penny.
However what London is becoming truly terrifies me. I read 'This is London' by Ben Judah recently (recommended by someone on here - I can't quite remember who though, sorry), and it makes me think I need to get out of this place sooner rather than later.
The city is dividing, stratifying, becoming more like a Dubai or Doha where you have the very rich and the very poor and very little in between, and also a great deal of stratification based on race. This is not a city I feel comfortable in any more - not because I'm afraid of hearing "foreign voices" on the tube, but rather because I feel deeply uncomfortable with the widening gulf between rich and poor and the ghettoisation of certain areas based on race/religion, as laid out in Ben Judah's book.
Inner London certainly, most of the middle aged middle class move out to the suburbs and Home Counties and the white working class have moved from the East End to Kent and Essex.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
I have to say I almost have more respect for Alistair Meeks and William Glenn on that front, at least they are staying here and whinging and as staunch Remainers always predicted gloom from Brexit, RCS voted Leave then moved to California and is now predicting gloom while typing by the pool, not much Dunkirk spirit there.
TBF @rcs1000 employer relocated to LA. And his economic projections aren't much to do with Brexit
They're nothing at all do with Brexit. They are to do with the fact that our political class has lied to us pretty much consistently since 1997.
They are the consequence of the Labour government of 1997 to 2010 spending all the money, and then the coalition and May governments choosing to defer pain by encouraging consumers to lever up.
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
I seem to remember we had a recession after the 2008 crash many of the consequences of which, particularly low wages, we are still coping with.
And instead of learning about the dangerous of debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means our government decided what we needed was even more debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means.
We have had 7 years of austerity since 2010, though I agree we need more affordable housing.
We have not had austerity.
Spending as a percentage of gdp is now 42% from 49% in 2010, public sector wages have been capped at 1% for 7 years, well below inflation, the local government workforce has fallen by about 40% etc
And the triple lock has meant that the focus of spending cuts has been felt more by those under 65.
Which the voters themselves decided not to change after depriving Mrs May of her majority when she proposed to end the triple lock and winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners.
That is to make the mistake of treating 'the voters' as a single sentient being.
Corbyn and Ruth Davidson and the DUP promised to keep the triple lock and winter fuel allowance and the LDs and SNP the triple lock, hence a majority of seats were won by those who opposed May's manifesto promise to repeal those benefits for pensioners.
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
I seem to remember we had a recession after the 2008 crash many of the consequences of which, particularly low wages, we are still coping with.
And instead of learning about the dangerous of debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means our government decided what we needed was even more debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means.
We have had 7 years of austerity since 2010, though I agree we need more affordable housing.
Those seven years of 'austerity' have seen the government borrow hundreds of billions more than it said it would, house prices and retails sales reach all time highs and the UK having the biggest current account deficit on record.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
Yes, I've been moving around for work reasons. In Holloway, a faIrly downmarket part of London, I was paying £1400/month for a 1-bedroom flat above a shop, and there was nothing significantly cheaper nearby. In Nottingham, I was paying £500/month for a 2-bed flat. I'm now moving to Haslemere, where I'll be paying £1050/month for a 2-bed flat. Nottingham seemed insanely cheap by comparison, and once HS2 is working I expect plenty of people will commute from there until prices go up. It's all a bit mad.
Haslemere is lovely. I lived there for a while and commuted, but at the time my work only required me to be in london two or three times a week. I think the cost of the commute plus the extra time on every day would have made things prohibitively expensive on a five day week, although I know quite a few people who work in London and live out by Guildford way. It is all a trade off I suppose. I imagine a flat like mine rents at around £1500 per month but for me the ability to fall out of bed and be at my desk in forty five minutes is worth every penny.
However what London is becoming truly terrifies me. I read 'This is London' by Ben Judah recently (recommended by someone on here - I can't quite remember who though, sorry), and it makes me think I need to get out of this place sooner rather than later.
The city is dividing, stratifying, becoming more like a Dubai or Doha where you have the very rich and the very poor and very little in between, and also a great deal of stratification based on race. This is not a city I feel comfortable in any more - not because I'm afraid of hearing "foreign voices" on the tube, but rather because I feel deeply uncomfortable with the widening gulf between rich and poor and the ghettoisation of certain areas based on race/religion, as laid out in Ben Judah's book.
A 'world city' takes on the attributes of the world.
That many of those attributes are things which you are not comfortable with is irrelevent.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
I have to say I almost have more respect for Alistair Meeks and William Glenn on that front, at least they are staying here and whinging and as staunch Remainers always predicted gloom from Brexit, RCS voted Leave then moved to California and is now predicting gloom while typing by the pool, not much Dunkirk spirit there.
TBF @rcs1000 employer relocated to LA. And his economic projections aren't much to do with Brexit
They're nothing at all do with Brexit. They are to do with the fact that our political class has lied to us pretty much consistently since 1997.
They are the consequence of the Labour government of 1997 to 2010 spending all the money, and then the coalition and May governments choosing to defer pain by encouraging consumers to lever up.
Osbourne and Brown are the guilty men.
Of course another recession will just make the growth of leftwing and rightwing populism even more widespread than it is already.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Indeed, the day of reckoning is going to be horrible. I read somewhere the UK has £10 trillion of external liabilities, second only to the USA. The USA is a much bigger economy though!
Predicting a horrible recession is like predicting that you are going to die, probably in great pain, vomiting your own feces, stricken with guilt and shock.
In every case you are "amazingly" proven correct, because that is how death commonly happens, and death - in some form - happens to us all.
Ignore.
I want to die peacefully in my sleep, as my father did. Not screaming in terror, like the passengers on his bus...
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
I have to say I almost have more respect for Alistair Meeks and William Glenn on that front, at least they are staying here and whinging and as staunch Remainers always predicted gloom from Brexit, RCS voted Leave then moved to California and is now predicting gloom while typing by the pool, not much Dunkirk spirit there.
TBF @rcs1000 employer relocated to LA. And his economic projections aren't much to do with Brexit
They're nothing at all do with Brexit. They are to do with the fact that our political class has lied to us pretty much consistently since 1997.
They are the consequence of the Labour government of 1997 to 2010 spending all the money, and then the coalition and May governments choosing to defer pain by encouraging consumers to lever up.
Osbourne and Brown are the guilty men.
The analogy is with house prices. Which govt is going to rebase them down 30% as is required?
The pain of readjusting would have been too much for voters. And Osborne and Brown knew it.
Haslemere is lovely. I lived there for a while and commuted, but at the time my work only required me to be in london two or three times a week. I think the cost of the commute plus the extra time on every day would have made things prohibitively expensive on a five day week, although I know quite a few people who work in London and live out by Guildford way. It is all a trade off I suppose. I imagine a flat like mine rents at around £1500 per month but for me the ability to fall out of bed and be at my desk in forty five minutes is worth every penny.
However what London is becoming truly terrifies me. I read 'This is London' by Ben Judah recently (recommended by someone on here - I can't quite remember who though, sorry), and it makes me think I need to get out of this place sooner rather than later.
I look forward to Haslemere - I work for Compassion in World Farming in Godalming, 20 minutes away, but this particular place struck me as really nice.
That said, I still like London a lot. I agree that the disparities of wealth are depressing, but most people seem to get on with their lives philosophically, and I don't get a sense of tension and resentment. Holloway was bewilderingly multi-ethnic to the point that one gave up trying to work out where people might be descended from - the nice Eritrean cafe over the road used to have people from various backgrounds talking in accented English as, presumably, the only common language. I lived there for 5 years, and never saw a hint of tension or aggression. It's Corbyn country, and perhaps the amiable mix is one reason why he's more comfortable with immigation than MPs from places with a homogenous WWC ward next to a homofenous ward of a different ethnic group.
Recessions are necessary, they allow house prices to return to a more reasonable level and let bad money go bust and allow newer and better opportunities. It's great for the young who have little to no assets already.
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
I seem to remember we had a recession after the 2008 crash many of the consequences of which, particularly low wages, we are still coping with.
And instead of learning about the dangerous of debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means our government decided what we needed was even more debt fuelled consumption, unaffordable housing and living beyond our means.
We have had 7 years of austerity since 2010, though I agree we need more affordable housing.
Those seven years of 'austerity' have seen the government borrow hundreds of billions more than it said it would, house prices and retails sales reach all time highs and the UK having the biggest current account deficit on record.
As a percentage of gdp spending has fallen from 49% to 42% as I said, house prices may still be high but fewer people are home owners and wages are stagnant while inflation is rising leaving people with less in the bank from their monthy paycheque. As I also said ironically the low £ may be good for the current account deficit.
There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.
The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.
Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.
Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.
The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
Whinger
He's just trying to justify his decision to run away to SoCal...
I have to say I almost have more respect for Alistair Meeks and William Glenn on that front, at least they are staying here and whinging and as staunch Remainers always predicted gloom from Brexit, RCS voted Leave then moved to California and is now predicting gloom while typing by the pool, not much Dunkirk spirit there.
TBF @rcs1000 employer relocated to LA. And his economic projections aren't much to do with Brexit
They're nothing at all do with Brexit. They are to do with the fact that our political class has lied to us pretty much consistently since 1997.
They are the consequence of the Labour government of 1997 to 2010 spending all the money, and then the coalition and May governments choosing to defer pain by encouraging consumers to lever up.
Osbourne and Brown are the guilty men.
A decade ago I was actually relieved when the credit crunch happened and thought "we'll have to stop all that borrowing and spending now and concentrate on working".
Yes, I've been moving around for work reasons. In Holloway, a faIrly downmarket part of London, I was paying £1400/month for a 1-bedroom flat above a shop, and there was nothing significantly cheaper nearby. In Nottingham, I was paying £500/month for a 2-bed flat. I'm now moving to Haslemere, where I'll be paying £1050/month for a 2-bed flat. Nottingham seemed insanely cheap by comparison, and once HS2 is working I expect plenty of people will commute from there until prices go up. It's all a bit mad.
Haslemere is lovely. I lived there for a while and commuted, but at the time my work only required me to be in london two or three times a week. I think the cost of the commute plus the extra time on every day would have made things prohibitively expensive on a five day week, although I know quite a few people who work in London and live out by Guildford way. It is all a trade off I suppose. I imagine a flat like mine rents at around £1500 per month but for me the ability to fall out of bed and be at my desk in forty five minutes is worth every penny.
However what London is becoming truly terrifies me. I read 'This is London' by Ben Judah recently (recommended by someone on here - I can't quite remember who though, sorry), and it makes me think I need to get out of this place sooner rather than later.
The city is dividing, stratifying, becoming more like a Dubai or Doha where you have the very rich and the very poor and very little in between, and also a great deal of stratification based on race. This is not a city I feel comfortable in any more - not because I'm afraid of hearing "foreign voices" on the tube, but rather because I feel deeply uncomfortable with the widening gulf between rich and poor and the ghettoisation of certain areas based on race/religion, as laid out in Ben Judah's book.
Its a great book. Possibly a bit on the extreme/dramatic side though. It is more like a story about the underclass that you don't see.
Within my circles, the stratification is between people who have property and those who don't. The people who own property and have lived in London will normally stay there. If you have a house in a nice area you will probably stay put. People who missed the opportunity to buy property when it was affordable (ie early 00's, brief period in 2009/2010) have to move out.
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
I was working on 750pcm in the local area and £129pw is £560pcm ex bills, which will bring it up to £600pcm. Add on season ticket brings it up to £660 (cycle? God, no!) which is helpful.
Of course another recession will just make the growth of leftwing and rightwing populism even more widespread than it is already.
We have been blessed - as a country - with two finance ministers in the last half century who have understood that - in the long-run - the books need to balance. And who appreciated that a little pain now was better than a lot of pain later.
Geoffrey Howe and Ken Clarke both suppressed consumption and boosted savings rates to bring what people consumed in line with what they created. The legacy of both these men was a British economy in much better shape in 1997 than it had been at any point in the previous 60 years.
We have had a succession of chancellors who have chosen the opposite path. When we import an iPhone from China, then the difference between its import cost and what the consumer pays is added to GDP: the salary of the Apple Store employee, the profits of Apple Retail, etc. etc.
But we're borrowing from abroad to boost our GDP by by selling ourselves things we don't make.
That is not a sustainable business model.
The question is, do we get leadership that recognises that and puts the country on the right path, or do we end up electing leaders who promise ever greater goodies, while productive businesses and productive people flee.
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
I was working on 750pcm in the local area and £129pw is £560pcm ex bills, which will bring it up to £600pcm. Add on season ticket brings it up to £660 (cycle? God, no!) which is helpful.
If you cycle, you will be healthier, you will get to work quicker, and you will save a metric shit tonne of money.
Like him or loathe him, and no denying he is right wing, I do think it is hard that some maintain Guido is nothing but a Tory stooge when he runs stories like the below, even as other parties will no doubt be in the firing line.
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
I was working on 750pcm in the local area and £129pw is £560pcm ex bills, which will bring it up to £600pcm. Add on season ticket brings it up to £660 (cycle? God, no!) which is helpful.
If you cycle, you will be healthier, you will get to work quicker, and you will save a metric shit tonne of money.
You have to be a very dedicated and disciplined cyclist (winter can be very tough) to get to the point where you really save money.
I cycled for several years - you end up missing days for various reasons, taking the tube and because you have to pay as you go, the cost quickly mounts up.
Life in London is frankly shit when you are trying to save money all the time.
Difficult one, might be worth taking the hit if the job would lead to significant progression in your industry. The reason I eventually gave up on London was I realised that my earning potential in London wasn't ever going to be good enough to buy a nice flat (of the kind that I could have rented for £800/pcm a decade before), without taking on unacceptable personal financial risk.
I worked out I could get to £60k and possibly more than that, but in London that's peanuts. I ended up moving out of London, taking a salary cut to £32k but with a mortgage of £580 per month it works out much better, all in all.
Right now I'm quite comfy: salary easily covers mortgage and lifestyle so can put some money away, yay! But my present job has mutated away from analysis to development and maintenance, and that's not a good place to be long-term, so I need to bail before I become institutionalised. A financial hit is inevitable but there's hits and hits, and this one is bigger than I thought, so...well, I'll think of something no doubt, but right now it's a bit eek.
Of course another recession will just make the growth of leftwing and rightwing populism even more widespread than it is already.
We have been blessed - as a country - with two finance ministers in the last half century who have understood that - in the long-run - the books need to balance. And who appreciated that a little pain now was better than a lot of pain later.
Geoffrey Howe and Ken Clarke both suppressed consumption and boosted savings rates to bring what people consumed in line with what they created. The legacy of both these men was a British economy in much better shape in 1997 than it had been at any point in the previous 60 years.
We have had a succession of chancellors who have chosen the opposite path. When we import an iPhone from China, then the difference between its import cost and what the consumer pays is added to GDP: the salary of the Apple Store employee, the profits of Apple Retail, etc. etc.
But we're borrowing from abroad to boost our GDP by by selling ourselves things we don't make.
That is not a sustainable business model.
The question is, do we get leadership that recognises that and puts the country on the right path, or do we end up electing leaders who promise ever greater goodies, while productive businesses and productive people flee.
What do you expect will happen ?
A big fall in the value of sterling ? Continued selling of UK assets to fund the overconsumption ?
I really can't see either the country choosing to live wihtin its means or a government which forces it to.
Of course another recession will just make the growth of leftwing and rightwing populism even more widespread than it is already.
We have been blessed - as a country - with two finance ministers in the last half century who have understood that - in the long-run - the books need to balance. And who appreciated that a little pain now was better than a lot of pain later.
Geoffrey Howe and Ken Clarke both suppressed consumption and boosted savings rates to bring what people consumed in line with what they created. The legacy of both these men was a British economy in much better shape in 1997 than it had been at any point in the previous 60 years.
We have had a succession of chancellors who have chosen the opposite path. When we import an iPhone from China, then the difference between its import cost and what the consumer pays is added to GDP: the salary of the Apple Store employee, the profits of Apple Retail, etc. etc.
But we're borrowing from abroad to boost our GDP by by selling ourselves things we don't make.
That is not a sustainable business model.
The question is, do we get leadership that recognises that and puts the country on the right path, or do we end up electing leaders who promise ever greater goodies, while productive businesses and productive people flee.
What do you expect will happen ?
A big fall in the value of sterling ? Continued selling of UK assets to fund the overconsumption ?
I really can't see either the country choosing to live wihtin its means or a government which forces it to.
I think Spreadsheet Phil would happily look to the longterm, but the maths of May losing her majority make it impossible.
Of course another recession will just make the growth of leftwing and rightwing populism even more widespread than it is already.
We have been blessed - as a country - with two finance ministers in the last half century who have understood that - in the long-run - the books need to balance. And who appreciated that a little pain now was better than a lot of pain later.
Geoffrey Howe and Ken Clarke both suppressed consumption and boosted savings rates to bring what people consumed in line with what they created. The legacy of both these men was a British economy in much better shape in 1997 than it had been at any point in the previous 60 years.
We have had a succession of chancellors who have chosen the opposite path. When we import an iPhone from China, then the difference between its import cost and what the consumer pays is added to GDP: the salary of the Apple Store employee, the profits of Apple Retail, etc. etc.
But we're borrowing from abroad to boost our GDP by by selling ourselves things we don't make.
That is not a sustainable business model.
The question is, do we get leadership that recognises that and puts the country on the right path, or do we end up electing leaders who promise ever greater goodies, while productive businesses and productive people flee.
I don't disagree on Howe and Clarke but as we saw with the 2015 elections and 2017 elections backing Cameron and Osborne and Corbyn and McDonnell's goodie bags it is likely to be the latter for the foreseeable future. Though Hammond is making some moves in a more prudent direction and focusing on productivity and the low £ will help the current account position somewhat.
Given President Xi in China is now moving towards a more totalitarian model, even if not a return to Mao in the Maoist mode it will be interesting to see if that has any longer term implications for us. Niall Ferguson has an article on that today.
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
I was working on 750pcm in the local area and £129pw is £560pcm ex bills, which will bring it up to £600pcm. Add on season ticket brings it up to £660 (cycle? God, no!) which is helpful.
If you cycle, you will be healthier, you will get to work quicker, and you will save a metric shit tonne of money.
And you will be a nuisance to both pedestrians and drivers alike
Difficult one, might be worth taking the hit if the job would lead to significant progression in your industry. The reason I eventually gave up on London was I realised that my earning potential in London wasn't ever going to be good enough to buy a nice flat (of the kind that I could have rented for £800/pcm a decade before), without taking on unacceptable personal financial risk.
I worked out I could get to £60k and possibly more than that, but in London that's peanuts. I ended up moving out of London, taking a salary cut to £32k but with a mortgage of £580 per month it works out much better, all in all.
Right now I'm quite comfy: salary easily covers mortgage and lifestyle so can put some money away, yay! But my present job has mutated away from analysis to development and maintenance, and that's not a good place to be long-term, so I need to bail before I become institutionalised. A financial hit is inevitable but there's hits and hits, and this one is bigger than I thought, so...well, I'll think of something no doubt, but right now it's a bit eek.
Sounds like a familliar scenario. I made two sideways moves over five years, eventually I got a significantly better paid role. Thing about London is that it is possible to do it at the start of your career (20s, early 30's) but I can't see myself going back there now. Good luck
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
Yes, I've been moving around for work reasons. In Holloway, a faIrly downmarket part of London, I was paying £1400/month for a 1-bedroom flat above a shop, and there was nothing significantly cheaper nearby. In Nottingham, I was paying £500/month for a 2-bed flat. I'm now moving to Haslemere, where I'll be paying £1050/month for a 2-bed flat. Nottingham seemed insanely cheap by comparison, and once HS2 is working I expect plenty of people will commute from there until prices go up. It's all a bit mad.
Haslemere is gorgeous: proper upper-middle-class English, all yummy mummies and wine o'clock. I know some people there.
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
I was working on 750pcm in the local area and £129pw is £560pcm ex bills, which will bring it up to £600pcm. Add on season ticket brings it up to £660 (cycle? God, no!) which is helpful.
If you cycle, you will be healthier, you will get to work quicker, and you will save a metric shit tonne of money.
If I cycle I will look like a cold wet dork. Pause. Well, more than usual...
Difficult one, might be worth taking the hit if the job would lead to significant progression in your industry. The reason I eventually gave up on London was I realised that my earning potential in London wasn't ever going to be good enough to buy a nice flat (of the kind that I could have rented for £800/pcm a decade before), without taking on unacceptable personal financial risk.
I worked out I could get to £60k and possibly more than that, but in London that's peanuts. I ended up moving out of London, taking a salary cut to £32k but with a mortgage of £580 per month it works out much better, all in all.
Right now I'm quite comfy: salary easily covers mortgage and lifestyle so can put some money away, yay! But my present job has mutated away from analysis to development and maintenance, and that's not a good place to be long-term, so I need to bail before I become institutionalised. A financial hit is inevitable but there's hits and hits, and this one is bigger than I thought, so...well, I'll think of something no doubt, but right now it's a bit eek.
Sounds like a familliar scenario. I made two sideways moves over five years, eventually I got a significantly better paid role. Thing about London is that it is possible to do it at the start of your career (20s, early 30's) but I can't see myself going back there now. Good luck
Like him or loathe him, and no denying he is right wing, I do think it is hard that some maintain Guido is nothing but a Tory stooge when he runs stories like the below, even as other parties will no doubt be in the firing line.
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
I commute in to central London from Epping in Essex on about that on the Central Line, though if you don't want to move near London permanently it is probably not worth it for under £50k I agree.
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
I was working on 750pcm in the local area and £129pw is £560pcm ex bills, which will bring it up to £600pcm. Add on season ticket brings it up to £660 (cycle? God, no!) which is helpful.
If you cycle, you will be healthier, you will get to work quicker, and you will save a metric shit tonne of money.
If I cycle I will look like a cold wet dork. Pause. Well, more than usual...
I have an old shipmate who lives in SW19 and commutes by bike to the MoD in Whitehall. He does it in about 35 minutes but his mean time between broken wrists and collar bones seems to be about 10-12 weeks.
I have an old shipmate who lives in SW19 and commutes by bike to the MoD in Whitehall. He does it in about 35 minutes but his mean time between broken wrists and collar bones seems to be about 10-12 weeks.
Cycling is a great way to get injured whilst wet and cold.
I have an old shipmate who lives in SW19 and commutes by bike to the MoD in Whitehall. He does it in about 35 minutes but his mean time between broken wrists and collar bones seems to be about 10-12 weeks.
Cycling is a great way to get injured whilst wet and cold.
You can convince yourself of that, if you like.
But the data tells a different story. The improvements to your health are significant, and most cyclists suffer few, if any injuries.
I cycled to work for four years when I lived in London, and sure, there were days when it was raining and I took public transport instead. But that was maybe one day a month, maybe less. And in my four years of cycling, the only accident I ever had was on my way home from the pub...
says the amusing and informative pro indy website Scotland Goes Pop.
The Kenny in question is "devo or death" Farquarson who yesterday fell hook line and sinker for the fake Sturgeon parody site supporting Madrid over Catalonia.
This journalist thus adds to his recent track record of writing an article claiming that former First Minster Salmond, certainly the most literate Scottish politician since the late Donald Dewar, has never read a book! This was based on a student newspaper interview, who then put their hands up to a mistake in copy.
Then there was the confident Farquarson prediction that Kezia Dugdale was set to be the next First Minister. Dugdale promptly resigned as Scottish Labour leader!
All of which would be funny if the afforesaid Farquarson was a keyboard warrior in some lesser website. In real life , however, he is the Scottish Political Editor of the Times of London - or claims to be!
From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
I was working on 750pcm in the local area and £129pw is £560pcm ex bills, which will bring it up to £600pcm. Add on season ticket brings it up to £660 (cycle? God, no!) which is helpful.
If you cycle, you will be healthier, you will get to work quicker, and you will save a metric shit tonne of money.
If I cycle I will look like a cold wet dork. Pause. Well, more than usual...
I wouldn't be able to cycle in the summer months unless I had access to, and time for, a shower when I arrived. I don't know how other people do it, unless they don't feel the heat. Winter would be far easier by comparison.
To give context to this. I've been offered a job on Central London, near Victoria Station. The salary is £33K. It's an amazing opportunity that will give new skills and good experience. But I've been looking around frantically and there's no combo of train fare and room rental that makes sense. I've looked at accom costs &season tickets in croydon, feltham, SW1P, west drayton, woking, horley, maidenhead and clapham and the best combo I can find is to rent a mon-fri room in Clapham and season ticket in each day, which comes to 700pcm. When you factor in transport to-from home each weekend, food and mortgage costs 'll be losing about £70 pcm. So you are right: it is considerably more difficult now than mid-Noughties.
Yes, I've been moving around for work reasons. In Holloway, a faIrly downmarket part of London, I was paying £1400/month for a 1-bedroom flat above a shop, and there was nothing significantly cheaper nearby. In Nottingham, I was paying £500/month for a 2-bed flat. I'm now moving to Haslemere, where I'll be paying £1050/month for a 2-bed flat. Nottingham seemed insanely cheap by comparison, and once HS2 is working I expect plenty of people will commute from there until prices go up. It's all a bit mad.
Haslemere is lovely. I lived there for a while and commuted, but at the time my work only required me to be in london two or three times a week. I think the cost of the commute plus the extra time on every day would have made things prohibitively expensive on a five day week, although I know quite a few people who work in London and live out by Guildford way. It is all a trade off I suppose. I imagine a flat like mine rents at around £1500 per month but for me the ability to fall out of bed and be at my desk in forty five minutes is worth every penny.
However what London is becoming truly terrifies me. I read 'This is London' by Ben Judah recently (recommended by someone on here - I can't quite remember who though, sorry), and it makes me think I need to get out of this place sooner rather than later.
The city is dividing, stratifying, becoming more like a Dubai or Doha where you have the very rich and the very poor and very little in between, and also a great deal of stratification based on race. This is not a city I feel comfortable in any more - not because I'm afraid of hearing "foreign voices" on the tube, but rather because I feel deeply uncomfortable with the widening gulf between rich and poor and the ghettoisation of certain areas based on race/religion, as laid out in Ben Judah's book.
It might have been me who recommended the Ben Judah book. I definitely mentioned it on here, although others might have also done so.
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Managed to get a bit back by laying Ocon for the podium during the race at 2.5.
If the recession comes before the next general election it may ensure a Corbyn government, if it comes after the next general election and there is a weak Corbyn administration it may ensure a very quick revival for the Tory opposition.
I say this in isolation to Brexit, the UK is not an economy in robust health.
Indeed arguably a FTA may hit the current account as although it would benefit manufacturing we have a deficit on the current account there and a surplus in services, only staying in the single market would help the latter.
Keep warm
Unfortunately the one we should have had in 2005 has been put off since with cheap credit and low interest rates and governments have done everything to prop up house prices, so instead of a small correction it's going to be a massive crash.
Its been twenty years of overconsumption and movement to a rentier economy.
1998 Last month of trade surplus
2000 Industrial production peaks
2002 Government debt as a percentage of GDP starts to increase
2003 Home ownership starts to fall
2006 Productivity stagnation begins
2008 Earnings stagnation begins
(Be grateful Robert that I am not posting the pictures as I threatened
Middle class wealth consumers.
The sort of people who support unlimited immigration because "the locals aren't willing to do the work".
And in a few years they'll be competing for low grade service sector work against those same immigrants who are willing to work harder and for lower pay than they are.
The irony will be delicious.
I'd imagine.
Theresa May will sack Cabinet ministers if they are found to be sex pests, as 13 MPs stand accused
...ducks....
This is going to be like back to basics where everything is under suspicion by every Tom, Dick or Harry who makes up the payroll vote in parliament. I bet Corbyn cannot believe his luck. Labour are going to hound ministers to death. Another own goal by May - she really is not very good at politics.
However what London is becoming truly terrifies me. I read 'This is London' by Ben Judah recently (recommended by someone on here - I can't quite remember who though, sorry), and it makes me think I need to get out of this place sooner rather than later.
The city is dividing, stratifying, becoming more like a Dubai or Doha where you have the very rich and the very poor and very little in between, and also a great deal of stratification based on race. This is not a city I feel comfortable in any more - not because I'm afraid of hearing "foreign voices" on the tube, but rather because I feel deeply uncomfortable with the widening gulf between rich and poor and the ghettoisation of certain areas based on race/religion, as laid out in Ben Judah's book.
One of the problems with discourse in a time of Brexit, is that genuine issues are waved away as "whingeing" or "defeatism".
Cycle to and from work. Free.
I worked out I could get to £60k and possibly more than that, but in London that's peanuts. I ended up moving out of London, taking a salary cut to £32k but with a mortgage of £580 per month it works out much better, all in all.
'If you're going to shoot the king don't miss'
They are the consequence of the Labour government of 1997 to 2010 spending all the money, and then the coalition and May governments choosing to defer pain by encouraging consumers to lever up.
Osbourne and Brown are the guilty men.
That many of those attributes are things which you are not comfortable with is irrelevent.
Bob Monkhouse
The pain of readjusting would have been too much for voters. And Osborne and Brown knew it.
That said, I still like London a lot. I agree that the disparities of wealth are depressing, but most people seem to get on with their lives philosophically, and I don't get a sense of tension and resentment. Holloway was bewilderingly multi-ethnic to the point that one gave up trying to work out where people might be descended from - the nice Eritrean cafe over the road used to have people from various backgrounds talking in accented English as, presumably, the only common language. I lived there for 5 years, and never saw a hint of tension or aggression. It's Corbyn country, and perhaps the amiable mix is one reason why he's more comfortable with immigation than MPs from places with a homogenous WWC ward next to a homofenous ward of a different ethnic group.
I really was naive.
Within my circles, the stratification is between people who have property and those who don't. The people who own property and have lived in London will normally stay there. If you have a house in a nice area you will probably stay put. People who missed the opportunity to buy property when it was affordable (ie early 00's, brief period in 2009/2010) have to move out.
Geoffrey Howe and Ken Clarke both suppressed consumption and boosted savings rates to bring what people consumed in line with what they created. The legacy of both these men was a British economy in much better shape in 1997 than it had been at any point in the previous 60 years.
We have had a succession of chancellors who have chosen the opposite path. When we import an iPhone from China, then the difference between its import cost and what the consumer pays is added to GDP: the salary of the Apple Store employee, the profits of Apple Retail, etc. etc.
But we're borrowing from abroad to boost our GDP by by selling ourselves things we don't make.
That is not a sustainable business model.
The question is, do we get leadership that recognises that and puts the country on the right path, or do we end up electing leaders who promise ever greater goodies, while productive businesses and productive people flee.
Rod has sent me some videos showing what he's been up to recently. He said I could post them on PB, so here they are.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8wNZWYSW1uvNThMWFBYT1htZ3c/view
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8wNZWYSW1uvbk5mVnlvWHhNREE/view
https://order-order.com/2017/10/29/tory-aides-spreadsheet-names-36-sex-pest-mps/
I cycled for several years - you end up missing days for various reasons, taking the tube and because you have to pay as you go, the cost quickly mounts up.
Life in London is frankly shit when you are trying to save money all the time.
A big fall in the value of sterling ?
Continued selling of UK assets to fund the overconsumption ?
I really can't see either the country choosing to live wihtin its means or a government which forces it to.
Given President Xi in China is now moving towards a more totalitarian model, even if not a return to Mao in the Maoist mode it will be interesting to see if that has any longer term implications for us. Niall Ferguson has an article on that today.
https://twitter.com/nfergus/status/924415526855524352
I made two sideways moves over five years, eventually I got a significantly better paid role.
Thing about London is that it is possible to do it at the start of your career (20s, early 30's) but I can't see myself going back there now.
Good luck
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/arts-and-books/how-the-famous-five-sold-us-a-myth-of-britain-and-set-the-stage-for-our-brexit-fantasies
But the data tells a different story. The improvements to your health are significant, and most cyclists suffer few, if any injuries.
I cycled to work for four years when I lived in London, and sure, there were days when it was raining and I took public transport instead. But that was maybe one day a month, maybe less. And in my four years of cycling, the only accident I ever had was on my way home from the pub...
says the amusing and informative pro indy website Scotland Goes Pop.
The Kenny in question is "devo or death" Farquarson who yesterday fell hook line and sinker for the fake Sturgeon parody site supporting Madrid over Catalonia.
This journalist thus adds to his recent track record of writing an article claiming that former First Minster Salmond, certainly the most literate Scottish politician since the late Donald Dewar, has never read a book! This was based on a student newspaper interview, who then put their hands up to a mistake in copy.
Then there was the confident Farquarson prediction that Kezia Dugdale was set to be the next First Minister. Dugdale promptly resigned as Scottish Labour leader!
All of which would be funny if the afforesaid Farquarson was a keyboard warrior in some lesser website. In real life , however, he is the Scottish Political Editor of the Times of London - or claims to be!