As long as Britain has a larger military than Spain or Argentina, to in theory defend Gibraltar and the Falklands, which it still does we would almost certainly not be taking military action without being alongside the US, NATO or the U.N. so it is really about how effective the military is in that role rather than raw numbers.
Yes, I agree (!). Insofar as we want to be able to assist in distant ops (which I might be up for in a UNO context, but certainly not to assist Mr Trump invading Mexico or Iran), sealift is critical. My understanding is that it used to be almost non-existent, then we made an effort for a bit, and now we're fading again. But others here will know more.
What does May want from her Party Chairman? Some more discipline in the Parliamentary Party, cash, someone to restore somewhat battered morale and a talking head that sounds more coherent than most senior ministers do at the moment, all of these things would be nice but the most important things are loyalty (she knows she is going to face a challenge at some point but would no doubt prefer to choose that point) and someone she can get on with. One of her many weaknesses, honed to perfection during the long years in the Home Office, is her desire for small teams that don't speak out of turn or to anyone else.
Ben Wallace is a surprising omission from this list.
Nah, Ben Wallace shat the bed last year.
1) Wallace is far too close to Boris Johnson, and he'd use the job to plot for Boris
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.
As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.
We are still waiting on some autonomy rather than dictatorship. Power devolved is power retained. Westminster is just like Madrid.
Dr. Foxinsox, you're blaming the Coalition/Conservatives for the carriers, for which Brown is entirely responsible (signing a contract whereby building both was cheaper than cancelling one)?
No, I blame both Labour and Conservatives for them. It is the Consrrvatives who now propose RN cuts that end amphibious capability, and neither party properly addressed the needs for aircraft andd escorts. We would really need a substantial uplift in RN budget to make them useful.
Getting rid of any amphibious capability is probably a good move as the notion that the British public and media would tolerate the casualties associated with a contested beach landing is laughable.
Downsizing and reorienting the RM toward their original role of maritime and shipborne security rather than being just another infantry brigade would also be a good idea.
Ruth's ambition is to campaign to become FM in Scotland. It is almost certainly an overly ambitious ambition but it is one that could do the Tories a lot of good north of the border even if it fails. It is a full time job and then some. Taking on a national roll that would require her to spend a lot of time outside Scotland would be fatal.
It would be in the national interest however.
Which nation did you have in mind Malcolm? The chronic lack of talent in Westminster at the moment means she may well be called upon but she has a lot on her plate up here right now.
Would get the windbag out of Scotland so gets my vote, though it would probably mean her big baw face would be in papers and on TV more so has a big downside.
If she took on another job, where would Ruth find the time to fulfill that vital duty of msps, the constituency surgery? I'm sure her constituents are continually keen to hear her views on education, the NHS, Universal Credit, the Rape Clause, Brexit etc, not to mention the worrying incidence of bigotry and racism amongst SCon elected representatives.
Only view she has is how to make more money and get her mush on TV or newspapers, but only if its tame presenter /reporter.Scared to have to answer any real questions on policy.
Jeremy Hunt would be a good outside bet to shake up CCHQ.
That is a brilliant suggestion! Yes!! Jeremy Hunt to be Chairman of the Conservative Party!
Failing him, Gove!
Yes, either would be good at changing CCHQ from its recent amateur status to the election fighting force it needs to be.
Both have a first-class record of wrecking the institutions they were supposedly there to lead and improve. That is why I would thoroughly approve of either taking charge of the Conservative Party.
Both have reformed health and education but not in a way the left approves of as they have favoured the consumer rather than just the producer.
Yes made it unavailable unless you are rich and can pay for private.
I liked this bit: Tom Tugendhat has the attributes to deal with the perceptions that the Tories are out of touch with younger voters. He has a masters in Islamics from Cambridge, speaks fluent Arabic...
Perhaps not foremost among the attributes required to be in touch with most younger voters ?
A multi-lingual chap who has spent time in Yemen and elsewhere is the sort of thing that appeals to the yoof, and shows the Tory party isn't riddled with insular people.
What does May want from her Party Chairman? Some more discipline in the Parliamentary Party, cash, someone to restore somewhat battered morale and a talking head that sounds more coherent than most senior ministers do at the moment, all of these things would be nice but the most important things are loyalty (she knows she is going to face a challenge at some point but would no doubt prefer to choose that point) and someone she can get on with. One of her many weaknesses, honed to perfection during the long years in the Home Office, is her desire for small teams that don't speak out of turn or to anyone else.
Ben Wallace is a surprising omission from this list.
Nah, Ben Wallace shat the bed last year.
1) Wallace is far too close to Boris Johnson, and he'd use the job to plot for Boris
I liked this bit: Tom Tugendhat has the attributes to deal with the perceptions that the Tories are out of touch with younger voters. He has a masters in Islamics from Cambridge, speaks fluent Arabic...
Perhaps not foremost among the attributes required to be in touch with most younger voters ?
A multi-lingual chap who has spent time in Yemen and elsewhere is the sort of thing that appeals to the yoof, and shows the Tory party isn't riddled with insular people.
Some hope,and we could do with some Tories spending some time cogitating on UK issues rather than swanning about the world pretending to be smart arses.
I liked this bit: Tom Tugendhat has the attributes to deal with the perceptions that the Tories are out of touch with younger voters. He has a masters in Islamic from Cambridge, speaks fluent Arabic...
Perhaps not foremost among the attributes required to be in touch with most younger voters ?
And Arab countries are rather more intolerant of homosexuality than the DUP.
There's a great deal of homosexuality in the Middle East. But, you can't be overt about it.
Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.
I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.
Attacking conditions and benefits are not necessarily a sign that they are poor on defence
The QE class ships are a major distortion of our Navy, and do not have the escorts needed. Is this worth losing our amphibious capability and one of the RM Commando's?
I don't have a view - not my field. I can imagine that we need carriers for effective force projection (which I believe we need). But there may be a better way to achieve the same objective.
Even if carriers are the right answer it may mean we need to spend more in defence than cut back on other aspects. Or it may not. But it probably means we need to be better at procurement. I think.
I liked this bit: Tom Tugendhat has the attributes to deal with the perceptions that the Tories are out of touch with younger voters. He has a masters in Islamic from Cambridge, speaks fluent Arabic...
Perhaps not foremost among the attributes required to be in touch with most younger voters ?
And Arab countries are rather more intolerant of homosexuality than the DUP.
There's a great deal of homosexuality in the Middle East. But, you can't be overt about it.
Nor about much sexuality at all, in some Arab countries even extra marital heterosexual sex is illegal.
What does May want from her Party Chairman? Some more discipline in the Parliamentary Party, cash, someone to restore somewhat battered morale and a talking head that sounds more coherent than most senior ministers do at the moment, all of these things would be nice but the most important things are loyalty (she knows she is going to face a challenge at some point but would no doubt prefer to choose that point) and someone she can get on with. One of her many weaknesses, honed to perfection during the long years in the Home Office, is her desire for small teams that don't speak out of turn or to anyone else.
Ben Wallace is a surprising omission from this list.
Nah, Ben Wallace shat the bed last year.
1) Wallace is far too close to Boris Johnson, and he'd use the job to plot for Boris
Being a keen student of GOT looks like admirable training for Conservative Party Chairman to me (as long as he stays away from his sister of course).
A couple of years ago I was told I had all the qualities to be an excellent Tory party chairman, or a Number 10 Chief of Staff, Tory Chief Whip, a Mafia consigliere, and head of the IRA's Nutting Squad.
Jeremy Hunt would be a good outside bet to shake up CCHQ.
That is a brilliant suggestion! Yes!! Jeremy Hunt to be Chairman of the Conservative Party!
Failing him, Gove!
Yes, either would be good at changing CCHQ from its recent amateur status to the election fighting force it needs to be.
Both have a first-class record of wrecking the institutions they were supposedly there to lead and improve. That is why I would thoroughly approve of either taking charge of the Conservative Party.
Both have reformed health and education but not in a way the left approves of as they have favoured the consumer rather than just the producer.
Yes made it unavailable unless you are rich and can pay for private.
Last time I checked we still had an NHS and state education.
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.
As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.
We are still waiting on some autonomy rather than dictatorship. Power devolved is power retained. Westminster is just like Madrid.
As a nationalist no matter how much power was devolved to Holyrood you would always prefer independence.
Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.
I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.
Attacking conditions and benefits are not necessarily a sign that they are poor on defence
The QE class ships are a major distortion of our Navy, and do not have the escorts needed. Is this worth losing our amphibious capability and one of the RM Commando's?
I don't have a view - not my field. I can imagine that we need carriers for effective force projection (which I believe we need). But there may be a better way to achieve the same objective.
Even if carriers are the right answer it may mean we need to spend more in defence than cut back on other aspects. Or it may not. But it probably means we need to be better at procurement. I think.
Big useless expensive targets when you cannot afford the support ships needed to protect them. Given the state of the country, elite rich toffs excepted, the last thing they should be worried about is projecting imaginary power. We could not beat a carpet at this point , given we would struggle to get more than a handful of troops anywhere in any reasonable timescale.
I liked this bit: Tom Tugendhat has the attributes to deal with the perceptions that the Tories are out of touch with younger voters. He has a masters in Islamics from Cambridge, speaks fluent Arabic...
Perhaps not foremost among the attributes required to be in touch with most younger voters ?
A multi-lingual chap who has spent time in Yemen and elsewhere is the sort of thing that appeals to the yoof, and shows the Tory party isn't riddled with insular people.
Or perhaps they'll vote for the party which promises to give them lots of money and not the one which puts them into £50k of debt.
If you want to appeal to the yoof then build lots of houses and then sell them at half price to the under 30s.
Jeremy Hunt would be a good outside bet to shake up CCHQ.
That is a brilliant suggestion! Yes!! Jeremy Hunt to be Chairman of the Conservative Party!
Failing him, Gove!
Yes, either would be good at changing CCHQ from its recent amateur status to the election fighting force it needs to be.
Both have a first-class record of wrecking the institutions they were supposedly there to lead and improve. That is why I would thoroughly approve of either taking charge of the Conservative Party.
Both have reformed health and education but not in a way the left approves of as they have favoured the consumer rather than just the producer.
Yes made it unavailable unless you are rich and can pay for private.
Last time I checked we still had an NHS and state education.
What does May want from her Party Chairman? Some more discipline in the Parliamentary Party, cash, someone to restore somewhat battered morale and a talking head that sounds more coherent than most senior ministers do at the moment, all of these things would be nice but the most important things are loyalty (she knows she is going to face a challenge at some point but would no doubt prefer to choose that point) and someone she can get on with. One of her many weaknesses, honed to perfection during the long years in the Home Office, is her desire for small teams that don't speak out of turn or to anyone else.
Ben Wallace is a surprising omission from this list.
Nah, Ben Wallace shat the bed last year.
1) Wallace is far too close to Boris Johnson, and he'd use the job to plot for Boris
Being a keen student of GOT looks like admirable training for Conservative Party Chairman to me (as long as he stays away from his sister of course).
A couple of years ago I was told I had all the qualities to be an excellent Tory party chairman, or a Number 10 Chief of Staff, Tory Chief Whip, a Mafia consigliere, and head of the IRA's Nutting Squad.
The crossover on those jobs did amuse me no end.
You expect your Mum to big you up, most people have the brain power / common sense to realise it is just your Mum saying it and it is not real.
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.
As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.
We are still waiting on some autonomy rather than dictatorship. Power devolved is power retained. Westminster is just like Madrid.
What does May want from her Party Chairman? Some more discipline in the Parliamentary Party, cash, someone to restore somewhat battered morale and a talking head that sounds more coherent than most senior ministers do at the moment, all of these things would be nice but the most important things are loyalty (she knows she is going to face a challenge at some point but would no doubt prefer to choose that point) and someone she can get on with. One of her many weaknesses, honed to perfection during the long years in the Home Office, is her desire for small teams that don't speak out of turn or to anyone else.
Ben Wallace is a surprising omission from this list.
Nah, Ben Wallace shat the bed last year.
1) Wallace is far too close to Boris Johnson, and he'd use the job to plot for Boris
Being a keen student of GOT looks like admirable training for Conservative Party Chairman to me (as long as he stays away from his sister of course).
A couple of years ago I was told I had all the qualities to be an excellent Tory party chairman, or a Number 10 Chief of Staff, Tory Chief Whip, a Mafia consigliere, and head of the IRA's Nutting Squad.
The crossover on those jobs did amuse me no end.
You expect your Mum to big you up, most people have the brain power / common sense to realise it is just your Mum saying it and it is not real.
Lyndon Johnson once said, in reply to a compliment, ‘Thank you. My father would have liked it; my mother would have believed it.'
I liked this bit: Tom Tugendhat has the attributes to deal with the perceptions that the Tories are out of touch with younger voters. He has a masters in Islamics from Cambridge, speaks fluent Arabic...
Perhaps not foremost among the attributes required to be in touch with most younger voters ?
A multi-lingual chap who has spent time in Yemen and elsewhere is the sort of thing that appeals to the yoof, and shows the Tory party isn't riddled with insular people.
Or perhaps they'll vote for the party which promises to give them lots of money and not the one which puts them into £50k of debt.
If you want to appeal to the yoof then build lots of houses and then sell them at half price to the under 30s.
Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.
I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.
Attacking conditions and benefits are not necessarily a sign that they are poor on defence
The QE class ships are a major distortion of our Navy, and do not have the escorts needed. Is this worth losing our amphibious capability and one of the RM Commando's?
I don't have a view - not my field. I can imagine that we need carriers for effective force projection (which I believe we need). But there may be a better way to achieve the same objective.
Even if carriers are the right answer it may mean we need to spend more in defence than cut back on other aspects. Or it may not. But it probably means we need to be better at procurement. I think.
Big useless expensive targets when you cannot afford the support ships needed to protect them. Given the state of the country, elite rich toffs excepted, the last thing they should be worried about is projecting imaginary power. We could not beat a carpet at this point , given we would struggle to get more than a handful of troops anywhere in any reasonable timescale.
The Falklands was less well defended in 1982, Argentina had a stronger military than today and the Task Force took some time to arrive but still won
Jeremy Hunt would be a good outside bet to shake up CCHQ.
That is a brilliant suggestion! Yes!! Jeremy Hunt to be Chairman of the Conservative Party!
Failing him, Gove!
Yes, either would be good at changing CCHQ from its recent amateur status to the election fighting force it needs to be.
Both have a first-class record of wrecking the institutions they were supposedly there to lead and improve. That is why I would thoroughly approve of either taking charge of the Conservative Party.
Both have reformed health and education but not in a way the left approves of as they have favoured the consumer rather than just the producer.
Yes made it unavailable unless you are rich and can pay for private.
Last time I checked we still had an NHS and state education.
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.
As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.
We are still waiting on some autonomy rather than dictatorship. Power devolved is power retained. Westminster is just like Madrid.
Did the UK police beat up Scottish nationalists?
Not that I am aware .However they did beat up miners in the 80s .
Of course PB is not a representative sample of the population at large (who may be very resentful at being asked to vote again and may vote in a "stuff the lot of you" fashion), but I find it _very_ telling how nobody on here has changed their mind since last year.
We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.
Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.
It's not just the internet. There's been a psychological study where participants were told they could identify real suicide notes from fake ones (macabre I know). Later, the psychologists went back and told the participants that the whole thing had been a set-up and they'd been lied to about having special abilities to pick out the real notes. Despite being told the whole thing was fake, participants still stuck to the belief they had a special ability to spot a real note. Here's an article on it in the New Yorker ('Why facts don't change minds') https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds
You don't have to be B.F. Skinner to see the parallel with Brexit and the lack of movement in polling. Even when statements made by leading Brexiteers are proven false, those who supported it are more likely to insist their gut is still, at heart, right rather than admit being duped or to have made an error in assessing the evidence or might be mistaken.
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.
As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.
We are still waiting on some autonomy rather than dictatorship. Power devolved is power retained. Westminster is just like Madrid.
Did the UK police beat up Scottish nationalists?
Don't you remember all those scenes of the British police being bussed in to lay siege to the polling stations to prevent the poor Scots from voting in their independence referendum? Maybe it was just in Malcolm's head.
You don't have to be B.F. Skinner to see the parallel with Brexit and the lack of movement in polling. Even when statements made by leading Brexiteers are proven false, those who supported it are more likely to insist their gut is still, at heart, right rather than admit being duped or to have made an error in assessing the evidence or might be mistaken.
OTOH people do have quite an effective technique for handling this without loss of face, which is to forget supporting side A and remember supporting side B. This is why you need to be very careful of Brexit polling that asks people how they voted before and looks to see if they've changed their minds, unless it's using a stable panel that was already asking the question. (Which is tricky in its own way, because asking people in a poll may make it harder to forget...)
Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.
I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.
Attacking conditions and benefits are not necessarily a sign that they are poor on defence
The QE class ships are a major distortion of our Navy, and do not have the escorts needed. Is this worth losing our amphibious capability and one of the RM Commando's?
I don't have a view - not my field. I can imagine that we need carriers for effective force projection (which I believe we need). But there may be a better way to achieve the same objective.
Even if carriers are the right answer it may mean we need to spend more in defence than cut back on other aspects. Or it may not. But it probably means we need to be better at procurement. I think.
Big useless expensive targets when you cannot afford the support ships needed to protect them. Given the state of the country, elite rich toffs excepted, the last thing they should be worried about is projecting imaginary power. We could not beat a carpet at this point , given we would struggle to get more than a handful of troops anywhere in any reasonable timescale.
The Falklands was less well defended in 1982, Argentina had a stronger military than today and the Task Force took some time to arrive but still won
Typical Tory , that was 35 years ago, we could not organise a platoon to Argentina nowadays without asking someone to take us there.
Brandon Lewis fronting up on Tory policy on Sunday Politics is further evidence Shadsy is correct to price him as favourite even though his posh Essex accent tends to grate.3-1 could look big in a short time.
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.
As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.
We are still waiting on some autonomy rather than dictatorship. Power devolved is power retained. Westminster is just like Madrid.
Did the UK police beat up Scottish nationalists?
Don't you remember all those scenes of the British police being bussed in to lay siege to the polling stations to prevent the poor Scots from voting in their independence referendum? Maybe it was just in Malcolm's head.
Smug gits wanted but not too smug. We can remember the miners strike when the UK police were happy to beat the crap out of them on political orders. Also recently when the supposed democratically elected Scottish parliament had a majority vote on a topic , Westminster fascists said they would ignore it as they held the power. Scotland is only allowed devolution that Westminster wants , not what the democratic vote wants. PS: Bussed all over UK just like Madrid's goons as well and happy to be on overtime and knocking the crap out of people who were not breaking the law.
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.
As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.
We are still waiting on some autonomy rather than dictatorship. Power devolved is power retained. Westminster is just like Madrid.
Did the UK police beat up Scottish nationalists?
The Scottish police were quite complimentary about how people conducted themselves in general.
Still, it's interesting how the Nazi saluters are drawn to one particular side in both scenarios.
Of course PB is not a representative sample of the population at large (who may be very resentful at being asked to vote again and may vote in a "stuff the lot of you" fashion), but I find it _very_ telling how nobody on here has changed their mind since last year.
We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.
Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.
It's not just the internet. There's been a psychological study where participants were told they could identify real suicide notes from fake ones (macabre I know). Later, the psychologists went back and told the participants that the whole thing had been a set-up and they'd been lied to about having special abilities to pick out the real notes. Despite being told the whole thing was fake, participants still stuck to the belief they had a special ability to spot a real note. Here's an article on it in the New Yorker ('Why facts don't change minds') https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds
You don't have to be B.F. Skinner to see the parallel with Brexit and the lack of movement in polling. Even when statements made by leading Brexiteers are proven false, those who supported it are more likely to insist their gut is still, at heart, right rather than admit being duped or to have made an error in assessing the evidence or might be mistaken.
That is nonsense. In a world where it is virtually impossible to beat the bookies over simple things like elections and Formula 1, it is ludicrous to claim to know at this stage that Remain (or indeed Leave) was the right outcome and that the contrary view could only be reached from error or fraud.
You don't have to be B.F. Skinner to see the parallel with Brexit and the lack of movement in polling. Even when statements made by leading Brexiteers are proven false, those who supported it are more likely to insist their gut is still, at heart, right rather than admit being duped or to have made an error in assessing the evidence or might be mistaken.
OTOH people do have quite an effective technique for handling this without loss of face, which is to forget supporting side A and remember supporting side B. This is why you need to be very careful of Brexit polling that asks people how they voted before and looks to see if they've changed their minds, unless it's using a stable panel that was already asking the question. (Which is tricky in its own way, because asking people in a poll may make it harder to forget...)
As a rule of thumb, if someone says they voted Remain and now 'doesn't know' if it was the right decision, they haven't changed their mind, and if someone voted Leave and now 'doesn't know' if it was right, they have.
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.
As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.
We are still waiting on some autonomy rather than dictatorship. Power devolved is power retained. Westminster is just like Madrid.
Did the UK police beat up Scottish nationalists?
Don't you remember all those scenes of the British police being bussed in to lay siege to the polling stations to prevent the poor Scots from voting in their independence referendum? Maybe it was just in Malcolm's head.
Smug gits wanted but not too smug. We can remember the miners strike when the UK police were happy to beat the crap out of them on political orders. Also recently when the supposed democratically elected Scottish parliament had a majority vote on a topic , Westminster fascists said they would ignore it as they held the power. Scotland is only allowed devolution that Westminster wants , not what the democratic vote wants. PS: Bussed all over UK just like Madrid's goons as well and happy to be on overtime and knocking the crap out of people who were not breaking the law.
Many of the local police in York were not happy how the Police drafted in from all-over the country treated the miners during the strike.Especially around the Selby coalfield.The local police had to work in the communities the ones drafted in had no such concerns.
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.
We are still waiting on some autonomy rather than dictatorship. Power devolved is power retained. Westminster is just like Madrid.
Did the UK police beat up Scottish nationalists?
Don't you remember all those scenes of the British police being bussed in to lay siege to the polling stations to prevent the poor Scots from voting in their independence referendum? Maybe it was just in Malcolm's head.
Smug gits wanted but not too smug. We can remember the miners strike when the UK police were happy to beat the crap out of them on political orders. Also recently when the supposed democratically elected Scottish parliament had a majority vote on a topic , Westminster fascists said they would ignore it as they held the power. Scotland is only allowed devolution that Westminster wants , not what the democratic vote wants. PS: Bussed all over UK just like Madrid's goons as well and happy to be on overtime and knocking the crap out of people who were not breaking the law.
Many of the local police in York were not happy how the Police drafted in from all-over the country treated the miners during the strike.Especially around the Selby coalfield.The local police had to work in the communities the ones drafted in had no such concerns.
Often the way. Although the Kent police could apparently be nasty with miners, and supporters, from Kent trying to go north through the Dartford Tunnel on the way to support the lads in Yorkshire.
Of course PB is not a representative sample of the population at large (who may be very resentful at being asked to vote again and may vote in a "stuff the lot of you" fashion), but I find it _very_ telling how nobody on here has changed their mind since last year.
We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.
Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.
It's not just the internet. There's been a psychological study where participants were told they could identify real suicide notes from fake ones (macabre I know). Later, the psychologists went back and told the participants that the whole thing had been a set-up and they'd been lied to about having special abilities to pick out the real notes. Despite being told the whole thing was fake, participants still stuck to the belief they had a special ability to spot a real note. Here's an article on it in the New Yorker ('Why facts don't change minds') https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds
You don't have to be B.F. Skinner to see the parallel with Brexit and the lack of movement in polling. Even when statements made by leading Brexiteers are proven false, those who supported it are more likely to insist their gut is still, at heart, right rather than admit being duped or to have made an error in assessing the evidence or might be mistaken.
That is nonsense. In a world where it is virtually impossible to beat the bookies over simple things like elections and Formula 1, it is ludicrous to claim to know at this stage that Remain (or indeed Leave) was the right outcome and that the contrary view could only be reached from error or fraud.
I beat the bookies in elections.
If I didn't have a proven edge, then I wouldn't bet on politics.
Dunno about F1. Perhaps there are a few edges out there for F1 non-insiders.
Quick summary of the Japan situation (should have exit polls on the dot at 20:00, which is 10 minutes from now):
Abe (LibDem) called a snap poll because he was doing well with a good reaction to his handling of the North Korea situation, and because the main opposition party, the Democrats, which is a weird combination of centre-left and various disaffected conservatives, was in disarray.
Then the governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, who had previously been in the LibDems but didn't get their nomination for the Tokyo job and ran as an independent, announced her own party, Hope. This immediately polled quite strongly, prompting most of the careerist and/or conservative Democrats to jump ship to her party. She required defectors to sign up to some fairly conservative principles, like supporting change to the constitution to allow re-militarization.
The remaining Democrats then formed their own new party, The Constitutional Democrats. This looks rather more appealing to a lot of people than the old Democrats, since it appears to stand for something coherent, and has been closing strongly. Also Koike is trying to lead her "alternative" party but she isn't actually running for parliament, which doesn't give her a great alternative prime minister story
Either way, most of the seats are FPTP, and there's a proportional section but it doesn't work as a top-up or anything, so the LibDems should clean up with the opposition split two ways.
Of course PB is not a representative sample of the population at large (who may be very resentful at being asked to vote again and may vote in a "stuff the lot of you" fashion), but I find it _very_ telling how nobody on here has changed their mind since last year.
We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.
Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.
It's not just the internet. There's been a psychological study where participants were told they could identify real suicide notes from fake ones (macabre I know). Later, the psychologists went back and told the participants that the whole thing had been a set-up and they'd been lied to about having special abilities to pick out the real notes. Despite being told the whole thing was fake, participants still stuck to the belief they had a special ability to spot a real note. Here's an article on it in the New Yorker ('Why facts don't change minds') https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds
You don't have to be B.F. Skinner to see the parallel with Brexit and the lack of movement in polling. Even when statements made by leading Brexiteers are proven false, those who supported it are more likely to insist their gut is still, at heart, right rather than admit being duped or to have made an error in assessing the evidence or might be mistaken.
That is nonsense. In a world where it is virtually impossible to beat the bookies over simple things like elections and Formula 1, it is ludicrous to claim to know at this stage that Remain (or indeed Leave) was the right outcome and that the contrary view could only be reached from error or fraud.
I beat the bookies in elections.
If I didn't have a proven edge, then I wouldn't bet on politics.
Dunno about F1. Perhaps there are a few edges out there for F1 non-insiders.
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.
We are still waiting on some autonomy rather than dictatorship. Power devolved is power retained. Westminster is just like Madrid.
Did the UK police beat up Scottish nationalists?
Smug gits wanted but not too smug. We can remember the miners strike when the UK police were happy to beat the crap out of them on political orders. Also recently when the supposed democratically elected Scottish parliament had a majority vote on a topic , Westminster fascists said they would ignore it as they held the power. Scotland is only allowed devolution that Westminster wants , not what the democratic vote wants. PS: Bussed all over UK just like Madrid's goons as well and happy to be on overtime and knocking the crap out of people who were not breaking the law.
Many of the local police in York were not happy how the Police drafted in from all-over the country treated the miners during the strike.Especially around the Selby coalfield.The local police had to work in the communities the ones drafted in had no such concerns.
Yes, very deliberate tactic. The extreme right wingers on here think that kind of stuff is what plebs deserve when they get above themselves.
Mr. Pong, the last two years have been Frank Spencerish for me. I'm actually ahead this year, but that's just due to early bets (my weekend tips are red indeed). Last year was almost entirely terrible, but luckily outweighed by the Verstappen 250/1 winner.
I would say that luck plays a bigger role in F1 than many other sports (betting-wise). Federer may sometimes not play at his best, but he's unlikely to burst into flames or be rammed by Nadal travelling at 200mph.
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.
As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.
We are still waiting on some autonomy rather than dictatorship. Power devolved is power retained. Westminster is just like Madrid.
Did the UK police beat up Scottish nationalists?
The Scottish police were quite complimentary about how people conducted themselves in general.
Still, it's interesting how the Nazi saluters are drawn to one particular side in both scenarios.
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.
As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.
We are still waiting on some autonomy rather than dictatorship. Power devolved is power retained. Westminster is just like Madrid.
Did the UK police beat up Scottish nationalists?
Don't you remember all those scenes of the British police being bussed in to lay siege to the polling stations to prevent the poor Scots from voting in their independence referendum? Maybe it was just in Malcolm's head.
Smug gits wanted but not too smug. We can remember the miners strike when the UK police were happy to beat the crap out of them on political orders. Also recently when the supposed democratically elected Scottish parliament had a majority vote on a topic , Westminster fascists said they would ignore it as they held the power. Scotland is only allowed devolution that Westminster wants , not what the democratic vote wants. PS: Bussed all over UK just like Madrid's goons as well and happy to be on overtime and knocking the crap out of people who were not breaking the law.
So the answer is no then. Thanks Malcolm. glad you could confirm that.
Now perhaps you could start working on not being such a complete tosser that even people who support your cause just wish you would shut the fuck up.
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.
As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.
We are still waiting on some autonomy rather than dictatorship. Power devolved is power retained. Westminster is just like Madrid.
Did the UK police beat up Scottish nationalists?
Don't you remember all those scenes of the British police being bussed in to lay siege to the polling stations to prevent the poor Scots from voting in their independence referendum? Maybe it was just in Malcolm's head.
Smug gits wanted but not too smug. We can remember the miners strike when the UK police were happy to beat the crap out of them on political orders. Also recently when the supposed democratically elected Scottish parliament had a majority vote on a topic , Westminster fascists said they would ignore it as they held the power. Scotland is only allowed devolution that Westminster wants , not what the democratic vote wants. PS: Bussed all over UK just like Madrid's goons as well and happy to be on overtime and knocking the crap out of people who were not breaking the law.
So the answer is no then. Thanks Malcolm. glad you could confirm that.
Now perhaps you could start working on not being such a complete tosser that even people who support your cause just wish you would shut the fuck up.
Of course PB is not a representative sample of the population at large (who may be very resentful at being asked to vote again and may vote in a "stuff the lot of you" fashion), but I find it _very_ telling how nobody on here has changed their mind since last year.
We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.
Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.
It's not just the internet. There's been a psychological study where participants were told they could identify real suicide notes from fake ones (macabre I know). Later, the psychologists went back and told the participants that the whole thing had been a set-up and they'd been lied to about having special abilities to pick out the real notes. Despite being told the whole thing was fake, participants still stuck to the belief they had a special ability to spot a real note. Here's an article on it in the New Yorker ('Why facts don't change minds') https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds
You don't have to be B.F. Skinner to see the parallel with Brexit and the lack of movement in polling. Even when statements made by leading Brexiteers are proven false, those who supported it are more likely to insist their gut is still, at heart, right rather than admit being duped or to have made an error in assessing the evidence or might be mistaken.
One fact I am fairly confident of is that we do not have tremas or unlauts in English so I am not sure why the New Yorker has them above the second o in "co-operate" (not sure we need the hyphen either actually).
But an interesting piece. "“As a rule, strong feelings about issues do not emerge from deep understanding,” Sloman and Fernbach write." Wise men indeed.
Reinforcement of existing beliefs and reluctance to be exposed to new ideas sounds very like the echo-chamber concept.
I'd accept the hyphen is a matter of personal choice. Personally, I rarely use them.
I m not sure it is quite the same point as the echo-chamber (ha!) concept. That is the idea that you associate with people or take media with the same views and so are not exposed to other ideas. This goes further because it says even if you are so exposed you will discount that evidence anyway.
So you might as well watch Fox News in the first place, at least it is often quite amusing.
What does May want from her Party Chairman? Some more discipline in the Parliamentary Party, cash, someone to restore somewhat battered morale and a talking head that sounds more coherent than most senior ministers do at the moment, all of these things would be nice but the most important things are loyalty (she knows she is going to face a challenge at some point but would no doubt prefer to choose that point) and someone she can get on with. One of her many weaknesses, honed to perfection during the long years in the Home Office, is her desire for small teams that don't speak out of turn or to anyone else.
Ben Wallace is a surprising omission from this list.
Nah, Ben Wallace shat the bed last year.
1) Wallace is far too close to Boris Johnson, and he'd use the job to plot for Boris
I had an embarrassing moment today, btw. I was preparing a climax to follow a soft, tender passage but pulled my horn out early while I was still coupled up on the feet.
So my intended magnificent climax flopped entirely.
Often the way. Although the Kent police could apparently be nasty with miners, and supporters, from Kent trying to go north through the Dartford Tunnel on the way to support the lads in Yorkshire.
I am not a real rugby league fan but in 1984 went to the cup final at Wembley.This was organized by our local pub where I played football for.The private bus we were on was stopped on the A1 by the police and we were questioned on who we were.I thought at the time and later when I saw the television footage from Orgreave policing was starting to move away from policing by consent.
What does May want from her Party Chairman? Some more discipline in the Parliamentary Party, cash, someone to restore somewhat battered morale and a talking head that sounds more coherent than most senior ministers do at the moment, all of these things would be nice but the most important things are loyalty (she knows she is going to face a challenge at some point but would no doubt prefer to choose that point) and someone she can get on with. One of her many weaknesses, honed to perfection during the long years in the Home Office, is her desire for small teams that don't speak out of turn or to anyone else.
Ben Wallace is a surprising omission from this list.
Nah, Ben Wallace shat the bed last year.
1) Wallace is far too close to Boris Johnson, and he'd use the job to plot for Boris
One thing about the "divorce" settlement. Isn't it normally the stronger party that pays the financially weaker a settlement ? And Britain certainly will be weaker than the EU !
Remember 'fault' is not considered in divorces for the monetary arrangements.
Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.
I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.
Attacking conditions and benefits are not necessarily a sign that they are poor on defence
The QE class ships are a major distortion of our Navy, and do not have the escorts needed. Is this worth losing our amphibious capability and one of the RM Commando's?
I don't have a view - not my field. I can imagine that we need carriers for effective force projection (which I believe we need). But there may be a better way to achieve the same objective.
Even if carriers are the right answer it may mean we need to spend more in defence than cut back on other aspects. Or it may not. But it probably means we need to be better at procurement. I think.
Big useless expensive targets when you cannot afford the support ships needed to protect them. Given the state of the country, elite rich toffs excepted, the last thing they should be worried about is projecting imaginary power. We could not beat a carpet at this point , given we would struggle to get more than a handful of troops anywhere in any reasonable timescale.
The Falklands was less well defended in 1982, Argentina had a stronger military than today and the Task Force took some time to arrive but still won
Any talk of retaking the FI after another invasion is utterly futile now that MPN has a 2,500m runway. There won't be a second Op Corporate.
What on Earth are Labour playing at today on Brexit? Keir Starmer gave a list of demands this morning which included a guarantee this parliament somehow bind its successors. Now Thornberry is claiming it's the UK being intransigent when the UK just reached out with a positive concession and Barnier responded with "no concession" on any of the three sticking points.
I am wondering whether Labour's leadership have made the internal decision to try to undermine the negotiation as much as possible. They want the political benefits that come from that and don't care if it hurts the UK or British workers in the meantime.
It is to a new generation MPs like Mercer that the Tory party needs to look for a successor to May not aging buffoons.
Normally I would agree. However we also thought that of Corbyn who is far older and more buffoonish than any possible Tory leader, but he's done OK (despite many people including me predicting the contrary).
Often the way. Although the Kent police could apparently be nasty with miners, and supporters, from Kent trying to go north through the Dartford Tunnel on the way to support the lads in Yorkshire.
I am not a real rugby league fan but in 1984 went to the cup final at Wembley.This was organized by our local pub where I played football for.The private bus we were on was stopped on the A1 by the police and we were questioned on who we were.I thought at the time and later when I saw the television footage from Orgreave policing was starting to move away from policing by consent.
What on Earth are Labour playing at today on Brexit? Keir Starmer gave a list of demands this morning which included a guarantee this parliament somehow bind its successors. Now Thornberry is claiming it's the UK being intransigent when the UK just reached out with a positive concession and Barnier responded with "no concession" on any of the three sticking points.
I am wondering whether Labour's leadership have made the internal decision to try to undermine the negotiation as much as possible. They want the political benefits that come from that and don't care if it hurts the UK or British workers in the meantime.
Labour's leadership are currently acting as if they want no deal. That's the only way to explain their pot-stirring, exceptionally dodgy face-to-face meetings with Barnier, flip-flopping and parliamentary posturing.
This would almost certainly cause the government to collapse and them to take power. It also means they could blame the resulting economic turmoil on Brexit and not on their dishonesty, stupidity and incompetence. It further means they have carte blanche to act as they see fit with the economy. So it is a win-win.
However, they cannot say this openly as it would destroy their credibility with their large number of Remain supporters. So they are saying one thing and doing another. Remarkably, they are getting away with it too. Who says you can't fool all of the people all of the time?
Highly damaging though such an outcome would be, you have to admire the sheer cynical brilliance of such a ploy. It's even better than Corbyn winning the leadership by opposing benefit cuts then deciding to pay large sums to middle class students rather than reversing the cuts.
What on Earth are Labour playing at today on Brexit? Keir Starmer gave a list of demands this morning which included a guarantee this parliament somehow bind its successors. Now Thornberry is claiming it's the UK being intransigent when the UK just reached out with a positive concession and Barnier responded with "no concession" on any of the three sticking points.
I am wondering whether Labour's leadership have made the internal decision to try to undermine the negotiation as much as possible. They want the political benefits that come from that and don't care if it hurts the UK or British workers in the meantime.
I believe Labour want to have their cake and eat it.
It's not just the internet. There's been a psychological study where participants were told they could identify real suicide notes from fake ones (macabre I know). Later, the psychologists went back and told the participants that the whole thing had been a set-up and they'd been lied to about having special abilities to pick out the real notes. Despite being told the whole thing was fake, participants still stuck to the belief they had a special ability to spot a real note. Here's an article on it in the New Yorker ('Why facts don't change minds') https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds
That is nonsense. In a world where it is virtually impossible to beat the bookies over simple things like elections and Formula 1, it is ludicrous to claim to know at this stage that Remain (or indeed Leave) was the right outcome and that the contrary view could only be reached from error or fraud.
Of course Brexit may turn out ok and we're dealing in the long-term, although the evidence appears to point to it being at best, a controllable negative that Brexiteers say is "worth it" for cutting immigration or a gain of "sovereignty". What is directly provable is that many of the justifications offered during the campaign were false. We've all gone on about the £350m, but perhaps the greatest lies were that it would be an easy negotiation (David Davis, Chris Grayling, Boris) and that the EU would be beating a path to our door, or that we'd retain all the benefits of the single market (Hannan). Another one that is provably false EU immigrants are a drag on public services (Farage). The fact that leading Brexiteers are now actively advocating a "no deal" Brexit is in direct contravention of the claims made during the referendum. Those aren't far off probabilities but verifiable in the here and now.
The question being, why isn't this causing the buyers remorse one might expect? It may not be clear whether Brexit will ultimately be a disaster, a negative or turn out relatively ok, but it's pretty clear most of the claims offered during the campaign were fraudulent.
And you seem to point to the conclusion - even as it becomes increasingly clear those who advocated Brexit didn't have any plausible plan, and even leavers admit they're in a mess, those who voted for it will still insist they're right, even as success seems a far more remote prospect than it was in the extravagant claims made last year.
Briefly, the Tories are losing the cities but gaining in left-behind areas: the more a town has deteriorated, the better the Tories do. That could be because places like Mansfield are traditionally Labour, so people associate decline with Labour there, whereas in Labour-run cities both cultural and relative economic prosperity make people more attuned to Labour. Whether these trends will survive a period where Conservatives are government and decline accelerates, if that's what happens, seems dubious.
I had an embarrassing moment today, btw. I was preparing a climax to follow a soft, tender passage but pulled my horn out early while I was still coupled up on the feet.
So my intended magnificent climax flopped entirely.
I feel your pain. My own organ no longer functions without ceaseless hand pumping by a small choirboy.*
*We are fundraising for a new set of electric bellows.
What on Earth are Labour playing at today on Brexit? Keir Starmer gave a list of demands this morning which included a guarantee this parliament somehow bind its successors. Now Thornberry is claiming it's the UK being intransigent when the UK just reached out with a positive concession and Barnier responded with "no concession" on any of the three sticking points.
I am wondering whether Labour's leadership have made the internal decision to try to undermine the negotiation as much as possible. They want the political benefits that come from that and don't care if it hurts the UK or British workers in the meantime.
I believe Labour want to have their cake and eat it.
I had an embarrassing moment today, btw. I was preparing a climax to follow a soft, tender passage but pulled my horn out early while I was still coupled up on the feet.
So my intended magnificent climax flopped entirely.
I feel your pain. My own organ no longer functions without ceaseless hand pumping by a small choirboy.*
*We are fundraising for a new set of electric bellows.
TMI, Ishmael, TMI...
More seriously, I hope you succeed because that's not ideal even on a fairly small organ. I used to play an organ at Much Marcle in Herefordshire which still had a hand pump, also a harmonium at Hope Mansell near Ross which still had working footpumps. Bloody hard work playing the latter. I gained a new respect for those Victorian maidens who played such instruments - they must have had legs that would have put the Williams sisters to shame!
Often the way. Although the Kent police could apparently be nasty with miners, and supporters, from Kent trying to go north through the Dartford Tunnel on the way to support the lads in Yorkshire.
I am not a real rugby league fan but in 1984 went to the cup final at Wembley.This was organized by our local pub where I played football for.The private bus we were on was stopped on the A1 by the police and we were questioned on who we were.I thought at the time and later when I saw the television footage from Orgreave policing was starting to move away from policing by consent.
Mr City’s post ends here. Mine is:
On the way home I take it.
Yes OKC. I started working for the Police in 1986 and retired in 2016.When I started the miners strike was still very raw in the area.In those days it was much more militaristic organisation than it is now.
@MJW (I can't sort out the quoting) Yeah sure. But you are comparing two sets of future projections (those made by campaigners during the campaign, and your best guess of how things will turn out from here on) and the really, really important point about the future is that it almost completely unknowable. it is amazingly difficult to persuade people that there are no exceptions to that rule. So saying one case or the other has been shown to be wrong, is just wrong.
Jeremy Hunt would be a good outside bet to shake up CCHQ.
The problem with reshuffling Hunt is finding someone who wants his old job.
Didn't she offer it to Crabbe first, but he declined and went to the backbenches to work on his struggling marriage?
Not the most popular gig in Whitehall which is probably why Hunt (who should really have gone over that Murdoch stuff) got it in the first place and is somehow still there.
We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.
Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.
It's not just the internet. There's been a psychological study where participants were told they could identify real suicide notes from fake ones (macabre I know). Later, the psychologists went back and told the participants that the whole thing had been a set-up and they'd been lied to about having special abilities to pick out the real notes. Despite being told the whole thing was fake, participants still stuck to the belief they had a special ability to spot a real note. Here's an article on it in the New Yorker ('Why facts don't change minds') https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds
You don't have to be B.F. Skinner to see the parallel with Brexit and the lack of movement in polling. Even when statements made by leading Brexiteers are proven false, those who supported it are more likely to insist their gut is still, at heart, right rather than admit being duped or to have made an error in assessing the evidence or might be mistaken.
That is nonsense. In a world where it is virtually impossible to beat the bookies over simple things like elections and Formula 1, it is ludicrous to claim to know at this stage that Remain (or indeed Leave) was the right outcome and that the contrary view could only be reached from error or fraud.
I beat the bookies in elections.
If I didn't have a proven edge, then I wouldn't bet on politics.
Dunno about F1. Perhaps there are a few edges out there for F1 non-insiders.
Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:
As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.
The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.
Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.
Did the UK police beat up Scottish nationalists?
Smug gits wanted but not too smug. We can remember the miners strike when the UK police were happy to beat the crap out of them on political orders. Also recently when the supposed democratically elected Scottish parliament had a majority vote on a topic , Westminster fascists said they would ignore it as they held the power. Scotland is only allowed devolution that Westminster wants , not what the democratic vote wants. PS: Bussed all over UK just like Madrid's goons as well and happy to be on overtime and knocking the crap out of people who were not breaking the law.
So the answer is no then. Thanks Malcolm. glad you could confirm that.
Now perhaps you could start working on not being such a complete tosser that even people who support your cause just wish you would shut the fuck up.
Fuck me, get a grip.
They are so up their union they cannot see the woods for the trees, pathetic crap like that to justify the undemocratic Westminster cesspit. Hate crimes rocketing in England, separatists lurching to the right and flailing out at anything EU and this is how they justify the flawed UK one sided "union".
What on Earth are Labour playing at today on Brexit? Keir Starmer gave a list of demands this morning which included a guarantee this parliament somehow bind its successors. Now Thornberry is claiming it's the UK being intransigent when the UK just reached out with a positive concession and Barnier responded with "no concession" on any of the three sticking points.
I am wondering whether Labour's leadership have made the internal decision to try to undermine the negotiation as much as possible. They want the political benefits that come from that and don't care if it hurts the UK or British workers in the meantime.
I believe Labour want to have their cake and eat it.
Has BoJo defected? Seems unlikely.
Labour say the UK is being "intransigent". Which of our demands are they referring to? Do Labour think we are not paying enough money? Do they think we should be allowing the ECJ to have special jurisdiction over their residents here? Or is there a potential concession I have missed?
Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.
I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.
Attacking conditions and benefits are not necessarily a sign that they are poor on defence
The QE class ships are a major distortion of our Navy, and do not have the escorts needed. Is this worth losing our amphibious capability and one of the RM Commando's?
I don't have a view - not my field. I can imagine that we need carriers for effective force projection (which I believe we need). But there may be a better way to achieve the same objective.
Even if carriers are the right answer it may mean we need to spend more in defence than cut back on other aspects. Or it may not. But it probably means we need to be better at procurement. I think.
Big useless expensive targets when you cannot afford the support ships needed to protect them. Given the state of the country, elite rich toffs excepted, the last thing they should be worried about is projecting imaginary power. We could not beat a carpet at this point , given we would struggle to get more than a handful of troops anywhere in any reasonable timescale.
The Falklands was less well defended in 1982, Argentina had a stronger military than today and the Task Force took some time to arrive but still won
Any talk of retaking the FI after another invasion is utterly futile now that MPN has a 2,500m runway. There won't be a second Op Corporate.
You are wasting intelligence trying to educate HYFUD, he thinks union jack underpants are all that is needed to beat any johnny foreigner.
Briefly, the Tories are losing the cities but gaining in left-behind areas: the more a town has deteriorated, the better the Tories do. That could be because places like Mansfield are traditionally Labour, so people associate decline with Labour there, whereas in Labour-run cities both cultural and relative economic prosperity make people more attuned to Labour. Whether these trends will survive a period where Conservatives are government and decline accelerates, if that's what happens, seems dubious.
Although, housing has become less affordable, relative to incomes, in core cities, and the gap between rich and poor is in your face. IMHO, those are the drivers of Labour support.
You really think Malcolm coming on here slagging off the English all the time and making stupid and easily identifiably false claims actually helps the cause of Scots nationalism?
I liked this bit: Tom Tugendhat has the attributes to deal with the perceptions that the Tories are out of touch with younger voters. He has a masters in Islamic from Cambridge, speaks fluent Arabic...
Perhaps not foremost among the attributes required to be in touch with most younger voters ?
And Arab countries are rather more intolerant of homosexuality than the DUP.
There's a great deal of homosexuality in the Middle East. But, you can't be overt about it.
Nor about much sexuality at all, in some Arab countries even extra marital heterosexual sex is illegal.
Exit poll: LibDems from 266, down from 286, lose seats but keep majority.
Hope and Constitutional Dems 55 each.
Seems a less than wonderful Abe result, given the optimal split in the opposition?
How are the minor parties doing - Komeito, Communists, etc.?
Yup, it's lower than the way people were talking when he called the election. But I guess the split wasn't exactly optimal for him in that Hope was led by somebody recently from his own party, pushing basically same policies (minus a couple of populist tweaks like anti-VAT-increase), so you could say that Koike was splitting both government and opposition.
IIUC Komeito is pretty much unchanged, as they generally tend to be, because their voters are part of a religious organization that basically turns out all their members on pain of eternal damnation, or whatever it is they threaten you with in Soka Gakkai. Communists seem to be down a bit, presumably from competition from the now-obviously-liberal-left Constitutional Dems.
Briefly, the Tories are losing the cities but gaining in left-behind areas: the more a town has deteriorated, the better the Tories do. That could be because places like Mansfield are traditionally Labour, so people associate decline with Labour there, whereas in Labour-run cities both cultural and relative economic prosperity make people more attuned to Labour. Whether these trends will survive a period where Conservatives are government and decline accelerates, if that's what happens, seems dubious.
Although, housing has become less affordable, relative to incomes, in core cities, and the gap between rich and poor is in your face. IMHO, those are the drivers of Labour support.
Is there not a demographic element to this? Left behind cities and rural areas tend to be white British Booming cities tend to be much more diverse. The Tories have done a terrible job reaching out to non-whites, including May herself. On the plus side, the recent diversity audit suggests they are beginning to realise this.
You really think Malcolm coming on here slagging off the English all the time and making stupid and easily identifiably false claims actually helps the cause of Scots nationalism?
You need to get out more, you will note I said "Westminster", no generalising on "English", unlike the arseholes on here who continually make it personal. The current Westminster parliament , to be fair the de facto English parliament, is undemocratic for Scotland. Given 85% of the voters are in the larger partner it means that their is unlikely ever to be any vote taken that has Scotland's interests at the forefront. Any moronic halfwit would understand that 85% will vote in their interests first and foremost and not care a jot about the 10%. If you read the jingoistic crap on here you would perhaps know this rather than bumping your gums about my highlighting of the lack of real democracy in Scotland. More fakes on here than were active in the US election and their jingoism does little to make the UK seem a decent place. So stick your whining where the sun don't shine and grow a pair.
Comments
1) Wallace is far too close to Boris Johnson, and he'd use the job to plot for Boris
2) And well there is this, Boris Johnson ally Ben Wallace threatens to go 'Game of Thones' on Michael Gove and give him a penectomy. It seems he wasn't happy about the Lord Chancellor's bid for leadership
Downsizing and reorienting the RM toward their original role of maritime and shipborne security rather than being just another infantry brigade would also be a good idea.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/22/cambridge-university-trigger-warnings-piccadilly-circus-targeted-advertising-david-mitchell
Even if carriers are the right answer it may mean we need to spend more in defence than cut back on other aspects. Or it may not. But it probably means we need to be better at procurement. I think.
The crossover on those jobs did amuse me no end.
If you want to appeal to the yoof then build lots of houses and then sell them at half price to the under 30s.
You don't have to be B.F. Skinner to see the parallel with Brexit and the lack of movement in polling. Even when statements made by leading Brexiteers are proven false, those who supported it are more likely to insist their gut is still, at heart, right rather than admit being duped or to have made an error in assessing the evidence or might be mistaken.
Scotland is only allowed devolution that Westminster wants , not what the democratic vote wants.
PS: Bussed all over UK just like Madrid's goons as well and happy to be on overtime and knocking the crap out of people who were not breaking the law.
Still, it's interesting how the Nazi saluters are drawn to one particular side in both scenarios.
Polls close 8pm local 12pm UK
Results:
https://vdata.nikkei.com/newsgraphics/shuinsen2017-live/
https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/shugiin/2017/
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/
TV:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fu2etwHzcvw
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/ (might be activated by 11.45)
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/live/
NHK World should be in English if you aren't feeling brave enough for Japanese!
Thanks
DC
Another safe Lib Dem victory, yes?
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/921873416663261185
If I didn't have a proven edge, then I wouldn't bet on politics.
Dunno about F1. Perhaps there are a few edges out there for F1 non-insiders.
Morris seems to make money.
Abe (LibDem) called a snap poll because he was doing well with a good reaction to his handling of the North Korea situation, and because the main opposition party, the Democrats, which is a weird combination of centre-left and various disaffected conservatives, was in disarray.
Then the governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, who had previously been in the LibDems but didn't get their nomination for the Tokyo job and ran as an independent, announced her own party, Hope. This immediately polled quite strongly, prompting most of the careerist and/or conservative Democrats to jump ship to her party. She required defectors to sign up to some fairly conservative principles, like supporting change to the constitution to allow re-militarization.
The remaining Democrats then formed their own new party, The Constitutional Democrats. This looks rather more appealing to a lot of people than the old Democrats, since it appears to stand for something coherent, and has been closing strongly. Also Koike is trying to lead her "alternative" party but she isn't actually running for parliament, which doesn't give her a great alternative prime minister story
Either way, most of the seats are FPTP, and there's a proportional section but it doesn't work as a top-up or anything, so the LibDems should clean up with the opposition split two ways.
I would say that luck plays a bigger role in F1 than many other sports (betting-wise). Federer may sometimes not play at his best, but he's unlikely to burst into flames or be rammed by Nadal travelling at 200mph.
Now perhaps you could start working on not being such a complete tosser that even people who support your cause just wish you would shut the fuck up.
Hope and Constitutional Dems 55 each.
But an interesting piece. "“As a rule, strong feelings about issues do not emerge from deep understanding,” Sloman and Fernbach write." Wise men indeed.
Reinforcement of existing beliefs and reluctance to be exposed to new ideas sounds very like the echo-chamber concept.
I m not sure it is quite the same point as the echo-chamber (ha!) concept. That is the idea that you associate with people or take media with the same views and so are not exposed to other ideas. This goes further because it says even if you are so exposed you will discount that evidence anyway.
So you might as well watch Fox News in the first place, at least it is often quite amusing.
How do you perform a penectomy on a man who is a total cock?
https://twitter.com/JohnFPfaff/status/921343311989927937
So my intended magnificent climax flopped entirely.
Often the way. Although the Kent police could apparently be nasty with miners, and supporters, from Kent trying to go north through the Dartford Tunnel on the way to support the lads in Yorkshire.
I am not a real rugby league fan but in 1984 went to the cup final at Wembley.This was organized by our local pub where I played football for.The private bus we were on was stopped on the A1 by the police and we were questioned on who we were.I thought at the time and later when I saw the television footage from Orgreave policing was starting to move away from policing by consent.
Isn't it normally the stronger party that pays the financially weaker a settlement ? And Britain certainly will be weaker than the EU
Remember 'fault' is not considered in divorces for the monetary arrangements.
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/922057728100585478
I am wondering whether Labour's leadership have made the internal decision to try to undermine the negotiation as much as possible. They want the political benefits that come from that and don't care if it hurts the UK or British workers in the meantime.
Mr City’s post ends here. Mine is:
On the way home I take it.
This would almost certainly cause the government to collapse and them to take power. It also means they could blame the resulting economic turmoil on Brexit and not on their dishonesty, stupidity and incompetence. It further means they have carte blanche to act as they see fit with the economy. So it is a win-win.
However, they cannot say this openly as it would destroy their credibility with their large number of Remain supporters. So they are saying one thing and doing another. Remarkably, they are getting away with it too. Who says you can't fool all of the people all of the time?
Highly damaging though such an outcome would be, you have to admire the sheer cynical brilliance of such a ploy. It's even better than Corbyn winning the leadership by opposing benefit cuts then deciding to pay large sums to middle class students rather than reversing the cuts.
That is the killer quote and demonstrates how far the news media and political blogs are off from the general Remain public.
http://neweconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/FINAL-CITIES-AND-TOWNS.pdf
Briefly, the Tories are losing the cities but gaining in left-behind areas: the more a town has deteriorated, the better the Tories do. That could be because places like Mansfield are traditionally Labour, so people associate decline with Labour there, whereas in Labour-run cities both cultural and relative economic prosperity make people more attuned to Labour. Whether these trends will survive a period where Conservatives are government and decline accelerates, if that's what happens, seems dubious.
*We are fundraising for a new set of electric bellows.
More seriously, I hope you succeed because that's not ideal even on a fairly small organ. I used to play an organ at Much Marcle in Herefordshire which still had a hand pump, also a harmonium at Hope Mansell near Ross which still had working footpumps. Bloody hard work playing the latter. I gained a new respect for those Victorian maidens who played such instruments - they must have had legs that would have put the Williams sisters to shame!
How are the minor parties doing - Komeito, Communists, etc.?
On the way home I take it.
Yes OKC. I started working for the Police in 1986 and retired in 2016.When I started the miners strike was still very raw in the area.In those days it was much more militaristic organisation than it is now.
Yeah sure. But you are comparing two sets of future projections (those made by campaigners during the campaign, and your best guess of how things will turn out from here on) and the really, really important point about the future is that it almost completely unknowable. it is amazingly difficult to persuade people that there are no exceptions to that rule. So saying one case or the other has been shown to be wrong, is just wrong.
Not the most popular gig in Whitehall which is probably why Hunt (who should really have gone over that Murdoch stuff) got it in the first place and is somehow still there.
It is rank opportunism.
http://www.tbs.co.jp/senkyo2017/index.html
Red = LDP, pink = Komeito, green = Hope (Koike), blue = CDP, light blue = Communist, black = ind/other
Top left blocks are the PR regions and the lower section is the country showing the FPTP results by prefecture.
IIUC Komeito is pretty much unchanged, as they generally tend to be, because their voters are part of a religious organization that basically turns out all their members on pain of eternal damnation, or whatever it is they threaten you with in Soka Gakkai. Communists seem to be down a bit, presumably from competition from the now-obviously-liberal-left Constitutional Dems.
If you read the jingoistic crap on here you would perhaps know this rather than bumping your gums about my highlighting of the lack of real democracy in Scotland.
More fakes on here than were active in the US election and their jingoism does little to make the UK seem a decent place.
So stick your whining where the sun don't shine and grow a pair.