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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the next Tory Party Chairman (or Chairwoman)

Ladbrokes have a market on who the next Chairman or Chairwoman of the the Tory party will be. It seems Sir Patrick McLoughlin will be standing down following his role in the disastrous general election campaign and the farce at the Tory conference when a ‘comedian’ interrupted Mrs May and the background behind Mrs May start falling apart, which in no way was symbolic for the shambles Mrs May has become since she called the snap election that squandered David Cameron’s majority. So who to replace him?

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RobD

First!

Penddu

Seconded...

Penddu

Tumbleweed......

IanB2

Third. I have met Mr Lewis, and he is a decent enough guy, but the sort of person many Tories would describe as a bit of an oik. Given such attitudes I would be surprised if he gets the job, or indeed if the job is right for him.

OldKingCole

Just been sent details of what looks like an interesting lecture at University of Essex, 7pm on Tues 7th. HOW HAS THE 2017 GENERAL ELECTION AFFECTED BREXIT?
Prof Paul Whiteley, from Essex’ Dept of Government
See: http://lakesidetheatre.org.uk/events/how-has-the-2017-general-election-affected-brexit/
Free.

Sandpit

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

bigjohnowls

I have as much chance as Nikki Morgan

bigjohnowls

On Topic BICIPC

foxinsoxuk

Sandpit said:

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

aI don't think Boris would take it, but he would be well suited to it.

JRM would see it as promotion and is a better organiser.

May is more likely to put someone there who is no threat.

IanB2

Sandpit said:

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

That was a non starter last time around, as it is the last place a PM would put an ambitious unprincipled rival like Boris; the advantages in terms of media and meeting members for him were just too great. The idea of FS was that he was out of the country and off our screens most of the time,

Now that May must recognise she is on borrowed time, she might be prepared to consider it. Although there will still be a lot of pressure not to let him loose in such a role.

The job is also supposed to require someone with some organisational ability.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Hmm. Was Rory Stewart in the military?

Anyway, fresh blood would be good.

View_From_Cumbria

The Party Chairmanship is a dual role. There is the media role - where Patrick has not shone and then there is the other party organisation role which people outside the party don't really see.

For the media role then clearly Johnny Mercer is the man. But for the organising minutiae I'm not sure someone who didn't succome to the pressures to vote prior to his own selection as a parliamentary candidate is at all suited.

The best party chairman was John Gummer - no doubt about that. He was ideally suited for intricate roles, vide Agriculture where in truth he wrote the present Common Agricultural Policy. Of course that meant that he made a lot of enemies from those who chose to call him a dritseck or some such.

For me the best on the list is Tobias Ellwood by far. If Johnny got it then he would need a trustable sidekick to do the real work such as Rob Halfon. If Jacob were offered it and then accepted that would be a sign like the Morning Star that Theresa intends him to be her successor.

DecrepitJohnL

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

I don't think Boris would take it, but he would be well suited to it.

JRM would see it as promotion and is a better organiser.

May is more likely to put someone there who is no threat.

Would JRM want it? What is his ambition? If he wants to be Speaker one day then he would probably want to steer clear of such an overtly political post.

TSE's idea of a military man to exploit Labour's weakness on defence is fine except that it risks allowing Labour to exploit the Tories' weakness on defence.

This is not a market for the unwary or uninformed punter such as myself.

IanB2

DecrepitJohnL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

I don't think Boris would take it, but he would be well suited to it.

JRM would see it as promotion and is a better organiser.

May is more likely to put someone there who is no threat.

Would JRM want it? What is his ambition? If he wants to be Speaker one day then he would probably want to steer clear of such an overtly political post.

TSE's idea of a military man to exploit Labour's weakness on defence is fine except that it risks allowing Labour to exploit the Tories' weakness on defence.

This is not a market for the unwary or uninformed punter such as myself.

It's not a job for a man on a high horse.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

I don't think Boris would take it, but he would be well suited to it.

JRM would see it as promotion and is a better organiser.

May is more likely to put someone there who is no threat.

Would JRM want it? What is his ambition? If he wants to be Speaker one day then he would probably want to steer clear of such an overtly political post.

TSE's idea of a military man to exploit Labour's weakness on defence is fine except that it risks allowing Labour to exploit the Tories' weakness on defence.

This is not a market for the unwary or uninformed punter such as myself.

It's not a job for a man on a high horse.

That's OK, Mercer was in the RA

OldKingCole

View_From_Cumbria said:

The Party Chairmanship is a dual role. There is the media role - where Patrick has not shone and then there is the other party organisation role which people outside the party don't really see.

For the media role then clearly Johnny Mercer is the man. But for the organising minutiae I'm not sure someone who didn't succome to the pressures to vote prior to his own selection as a parliamentary candidate is at all suited.

The best party chairman was John Gummer - no doubt about that. He was ideally suited for intricate roles, vide Agriculture where in truth he wrote the present Common Agricultural Policy. Of course that meant that he made a lot of enemies from those who chose to call him a dritseck or some such.

For me the best on the list is Tobias Ellwood by far. If Johnny got it then he would need a trustable sidekick to do the real work such as Rob Halfon. If Jacob were offered it and then accepted that would be a sign like the Morning Star that Theresa intends him to be her successor.

For some reason May doesn’t seem to like Halfon.

TOPPING

DecrepitJohnL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

I don't think Boris would take it, but he would be well suited to it.

JRM would see it as promotion and is a better organiser.

May is more likely to put someone there who is no threat.

Would JRM want it? What is his ambition? If he wants to be Speaker one day then he would probably want to steer clear of such an overtly political post.

TSE's idea of a military man to exploit Labour's weakness on defence is fine except that it risks allowing Labour to exploit the Tories' weakness on defence.

This is not a market for the unwary or uninformed punter such as myself.

The Tories are never weak on defence, just as Lab are never weak on the NHS.

DecrepitJohnL

Boris is 10/1. Anyone who still thinks the Prime Minister has the authority to reshuffle or sack any of her big beasts without triggering a leadership challenge and her own early retirement should lump on. Remember to save your bus fare home. On the other hand, if you think Boris would welcome the rubber chicken circuit and the chance to be the highest profile chairman since Norman Tebbit, the advice is the same.

Does James Cleverly count as military enough? He's a colonel in the TA, according to Wikipedia, so the same rank as Labour's next leader. He has a good speaking voice and comes across well on television.

One name on the list that is not like the others is Zac. If the Tories are short of money after GE2017 then appointing a squillionaire chairman might be an easy fix.

Dura_Ace

DecrepitJohnL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

I don't think Boris would take it, but he would be well suited to it.

JRM would see it as promotion and is a better organiser.

May is more likely to put someone there who is no threat.

Would JRM want it? What is his ambition? If he wants to be Speaker one day then he would probably want to steer clear of such an overtly political post.

TSE's idea of a military man to exploit Labour's weakness on defence is fine except that it risks allowing Labour to exploit the Tories' weakness on defence.

This is not a market for the unwary or uninformed punter such as myself.

The tory record on defence is probably worse than Labour when viewed dispassionately.

ydoethur

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris is 10/1. Anyone who still thinks the Prime Minister has the authority to reshuffle or sack any of her big beasts without triggering a leadership challenge and her own early retirement should lump on. Remember to save your bus fare home. On the other hand, if you think Boris would welcome the rubber chicken circuit and the chance to be the highest profile chairman since Norman Tebbit, the advice is the same.

If Boris has any sense he will ask for it. He would make a superb party chairman - high profile, popular, an excellent speaker, an ability to put things across in a simple way, charming and easy going and, yes, the ability to tell a Corbyn-style big lie with a straight face when necessary. Those are presumably the reasons why May gave him the Foreign Office, but it overlooked his big weaknesses - his lack of tact and love of insult humour. But for Party Chairman those would again be advantages.

It is because he has no sense that I do not think he would take it. But it might, for him, be a possible path to the leadership if h can deliver the crushing of the nutters currently running Labour. The Foreign Office, unusually, is not.

ydoethur

Dura_Ace said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

I don't think Boris would take it, but he would be well suited to it.

JRM would see it as promotion and is a better organiser.

May is more likely to put someone there who is no threat.

Would JRM want it? What is his ambition? If he wants to be Speaker one day then he would probably want to steer clear of such an overtly political post.

TSE's idea of a military man to exploit Labour's weakness on defence is fine except that it risks allowing Labour to exploit the Tories' weakness on defence.

This is not a market for the unwary or uninformed punter such as myself.

The tory record on defence is probably worse than Labour when viewed dispassionately.

Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.

At the same time I can't see how it would make any difference. Corbyn's views and past were very well known and it didn't stop him being the second most electorally successful Labour leader of the last fifty years. If the Conservatives don't have something positive on the economy and society then his unabashed bungs to the middle classes at the expense of the poor will surely still trump (no pun intended) doubts about his links to extremism or the threat to national security.

Charles

ydoethur said:

Dura_Ace said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

I don't think Boris would take it, but he would be well suited to it.

JRM would see it as promotion and is a better organiser.

May is more likely to put someone there who is no threat.

Would JRM want it? What is his ambition? If he wants to be Speaker one day then he would probably want to steer clear of such an overtly political post.

TSE's idea of a military man to exploit Labour's weakness on defence is fine except that it risks allowing Labour to exploit the Tories' weakness on defence.

This is not a market for the unwary or uninformed punter such as myself.

The tory record on defence is probably worse than Labour when viewed dispassionately.

Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.

At the same time I can't see how it would make any difference. Corbyn's views and past were very well known and it didn't stop him being the second most electorally successful Labour leader of the last fifty years. If the Conservatives don't have something positive on the economy and society then his unabashed bungs to the middle classes at the expense of the poor will surely still trump (no pun intended) doubts about his links to extremism or the threat to national security.

Not convinced in Brown - some of the idiot decisions made on the QE class of carriers are at the heart of today's problems

SandyRentool

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Dura_Ace said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

I don't think Boris would take it, but he would be well suited to it.

JRM would see it as promotion and is a better organiser.

May is more likely to put someone there who is no threat.

Would JRM want it? What is his ambition? If he wants to be Speaker one day then he would probably want to steer clear of such an overtly political post.

TSE's idea of a military man to exploit Labour's weakness on defence is fine except that it risks allowing Labour to exploit the Tories' weakness on defence.

This is not a market for the unwary or uninformed punter such as myself.

The tory record on defence is probably worse than Labour when viewed dispassionately.

Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.

At the same time I can't see how it would make any difference. Corbyn's views and past were very well known and it didn't stop him being the second most electorally successful Labour leader of the last fifty years. If the Conservatives don't have something positive on the economy and society then his unabashed bungs to the middle classes at the expense of the poor will surely still trump (no pun intended) doubts about his links to extremism or the threat to national security.

Not convinced in Brown - some of the idiot decisions made on the QE class of carriers are at the heart of today's problems

QE class? HMS Fiscal Stimulus?

kle4

NickPalmer said:

kyf_100 said:

Let's take PB as a microcosm.

(snip)

Of course PB is not a representative sample of the population at large (who may be very resentful at being asked to vote again and may vote in a "stuff the lot of you" fashion), but I find it _very_ telling how nobody on here has changed their mind since last year.

We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.

Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.

kle4

Dura_Ace said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

I don't think Boris would take it, but he would be well suited to it.

JRM would see it as promotion and is a better organiser.

May is more likely to put someone there who is no threat.

Would JRM want it? What is his ambition? If he wants to be Speaker one day then he would probably want to steer clear of such an overtly political post.

TSE's idea of a military man to exploit Labour's weakness on defence is fine except that it risks allowing Labour to exploit the Tories' weakness on defence.

This is not a market for the unwary or uninformed punter such as myself.

The tory record on defence is probably worse than Labour when viewed dispassionately.

At the very least that potential weakness didn't seem to hurt labour in June and it was a significant area.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/perfidiousalbn/status/917286346951192576

Ishmael_Z

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

kyf_100 said:

Let's take PB as a microcosm.

(snip)

Of course PB is not a representative sample of the population at large (who may be very resentful at being asked to vote again and may vote in a "stuff the lot of you" fashion), but I find it _very_ telling how nobody on here has changed their mind since last year.

We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.

Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.

I came very, very close to a change of mind over Brexit. I was almost perfectly 50/50 at the time of the vote but in the end voted remain. I am now a convinced (but unenthusiastic) remainer. Not fussed about what PB thinks of that, but thank God I voted the way I did. I find it very easy to imagine the guilt and remorse I would now feel if I had voted Leave.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Z, I wavered more than I thought I would when it came to the vote.

A matter of least worst option, unfortunately.

foxinsoxuk

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

kyf_100 said:

Let's take PB as a microcosm.

(snip)

Of course PB is not a representative sample of the population at large (who may be very resentful at being asked to vote again and may vote in a "stuff the lot of you" fashion), but I find it _very_ telling how nobody on here has changed their mind since last year.

We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.

Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.

I have floated quite a bit voting over the GE's since 83: SDP, Alliance, Labour, Labour, Labour, Green, Con, LD, LD. Quite possibly Lab next time. Some of this is my own ideas for the direction that the country should take have changed, and some is that my beliefs are not a perfect fit for any party.

I have changed my mind on Corbyn and McDonnell (as indeed many other floating voters have too!). I am a member of the LDs, but will not support them while Cable is in charge.

HYUFD

Jeremy Hunt would be a good outside bet to shake up CCHQ.

Dura_Ace

ydoethur said:

Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.

I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.

foxinsoxuk

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/perfidiousalbn/status/917286346951192576

Not a stupid idea at all.

Stereotomy

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

kyf_100 said:

Let's take PB as a microcosm.

(snip)

Of course PB is not a representative sample of the population at large (who may be very resentful at being asked to vote again and may vote in a "stuff the lot of you" fashion), but I find it _very_ telling how nobody on here has changed their mind since last year.

We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.

Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.

If you want to change your mind, try arguing for the opposite of what you believe in. As long as you do make a genuine attempt (rather than just mocking or parodying the people whose arguments you're adopting), you'd be amazed at how much it changes your perspective

Sunil_Prasannan

TSE should be chairperson!

Sunil_Prasannan

Ishmael_Z said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

kyf_100 said:

Let's take PB as a microcosm.

(snip)

Of course PB is not a representative sample of the population at large (who may be very resentful at being asked to vote again and may vote in a "stuff the lot of you" fashion), but I find it _very_ telling how nobody on here has changed their mind since last year.

We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.

Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.

I came very, very close to a change of mind over Brexit. I was almost perfectly 50/50 at the time of the vote but in the end voted remain. I am now a convinced (but unenthusiastic) remainer. Not fussed about what PB thinks of that, but thank God I voted the way I did. I find it very easy to imagine the guilt and remorse I would now feel if I had voted Leave.

TRAITOR! Um, morning, Ishmael!

foxinsoxuk

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TSE should be chairperson!

He could convert the turnip taliban to the virtues of Remain, George Osborne and AV, but alas is unlikely to be Theresa's first choice!

HYUFD

Emily Thornberry suggests Labour would keep Britain 'in a form of customs union' on Marr.

Sunil_Prasannan

Stereotomy said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

kyf_100 said:

Let's take PB as a microcosm.

(snip)

Of course PB is not a representative sample of the population at large (who may be very resentful at being asked to vote again and may vote in a "stuff the lot of you" fashion), but I find it _very_ telling how nobody on here has changed their mind since last year.

We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.

Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.

If you want to change your mind, try arguing for the opposite of what you believe in. As long as you do make a genuine attempt (rather than just mocking or parodying the people whose arguments you're adopting), you'd be amazed at how much it changes your perspective

How's this for changing minds?
2010 Tory
2015 Labour
2017 Tory

volcanopete

I'd rather be a layer than a backer in this market.Matthew Hancock,an apt name,has been absent from public view for some time.I don't think he's been mucking out stables in Newmarket but have the Tories given up on him because of his seemingly uncontrollable,involuntary,jerky movements of his hand and wrist whilst speaking,leading to an obvious new moniker which makes Mrs Volcano giggle? Can't he just sit on his hands?

PClipp

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Hunt would be a good outside bet to shake up CCHQ.

That is a brilliant suggestion! Yes!! Jeremy Hunt to be Chairman of the Conservative Party!

Failing him, Gove!

kle4

Stereotomy said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

kyf_100 said:

Let's take PB as a microcosm.

(snip)

Of course PB is not a representative sample of the population at large (who may be very resentful at being asked to vote again and may vote in a "stuff the lot of you" fashion), but I find it _very_ telling how nobody on here has changed their mind since last year.

We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.

Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.

If you want to change your mind, try arguing for the opposite of what you believe in. As long as you do make a genuine attempt (rather than just mocking or parodying the people whose arguments you're adopting), you'd be amazed at how much it changes your perspective

I change my mind on many things, thanks. The point was on the big things there is no safe space online for people to do so, so even if you don't care what a place thinks you have to accept taking a lot of shit, and people don't like doing that. Every time I have regrets on Brexit, which was a very hard decision which haa not been going swimmingly, a place like PB subconsciously reinforces my initial decision because who wants to admit a mistake - given how much I vacillate over things, I think I'd have changed my mind at the vote without PB.

foxinsoxuk

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Stereotomy said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

kyf_100 said:

Let's take PB as a microcosm.

(snip)

Of course PB is not a representative sample of the population at large (who may be very resentful at being asked to vote again and may vote in a "stuff the lot of you" fashion), but I find it _very_ telling how nobody on here has changed their mind since last year.

We were discussing the other day the fact that almost nobody on PB changes their mind about anything, ever. The idea of floating voters being a distinct set of people separate from the hardened politicos who never changed their minds is unfashionable, but it's not totally false, and I don't think there are many genuinely floating voters here, though plato hilariously used to pose as one, always "just" deciding to vote Tory.

Despite generally a civil place the nature of PB like most places on the Internet discourges changing your mind. You won't get thanked by those you've switched too, indeed they will probably be angrier that you didn't do so sooner . If someone hints at uncertainty in the own former view there's a good chance of vicious mockery or a lot of smug reaction.

If you want to change your mind, try arguing for the opposite of what you believe in. As long as you do make a genuine attempt (rather than just mocking or parodying the people whose arguments you're adopting), you'd be amazed at how much it changes your perspective

How's this for changing minds?
2010 Tory
2015 Labour
2017 Tory

So Labour next time

Just think of those luvverly British Rail trains...

Charles

SandyRentool said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Dura_Ace said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

I don't think Boris would take it, but he would be well suited to it.

JRM would see it as promotion and is a better organiser.

May is more likely to put someone there who is no threat.

Would JRM want it? What is his ambition? If he wants to be Speaker one day then he would probably want to steer clear of such an overtly political post.

TSE's idea of a military man to exploit Labour's weakness on defence is fine except that it risks allowing Labour to exploit the Tories' weakness on defence.

This is not a market for the unwary or uninformed punter such as myself.

The tory record on defence is probably worse than Labour when viewed dispassionately.

Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.

At the same time I can't see how it would make any difference. Corbyn's views and past were very well known and it didn't stop him being the second most electorally successful Labour leader of the last fifty years. If the Conservatives don't have something positive on the economy and society then his unabashed bungs to the middle classes at the expense of the poor will surely still trump (no pun intended) doubts about his links to extremism or the threat to national security.

Not convinced in Brown - some of the idiot decisions made on the QE class of carriers are at the heart of today's problems

QE class? HMS Fiscal Stimulus?

Queen Elizabeth (I think that's the class - apparently Navy thought it made them harder to cancel!)

Yorkcity

Dura_Ace said:

ydoethur said:

Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.

I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.

I believe many Police personnel feel the same.

kle4

HYUFD said:

Emily Thornberry suggests Labour would keep Britain 'in a form of customs union' on Marr.

An admirably wide nd open to interpretation suggestion.

Charles

Dura_Ace said:

ydoethur said:

Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.

I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.

Attacking conditions and benefits are not necessarily a sign that they are poor on defence

Morris_Dancer

Betting post

F1: pre-race ramble here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/usa-pre-race-2017.html

Backed Ricciardo for a podium at 2.5, and Alonso to not be classified at 2.75.

HYUFD

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Emily Thornberry suggests Labour would keep Britain 'in a form of customs union' on Marr.

An admirably wide nd open to interpretation suggestion.

As with almost everything Brexit related with Labour at the moment.

foxinsoxuk

Yorkcity said:

Dura_Ace said:

ydoethur said:

Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.

I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.

I believe many Police personnel feel the same.

And Cameron's plans for a clinician led NHS, without onerous targets and top down reorganisations did the opposite in 2010 for NHS workers. The Pulse survey had 50% of doctors voting Tory, though I think that has dropped off a lot since.

HYUFD

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Hunt would be a good outside bet to shake up CCHQ.

That is a brilliant suggestion! Yes!! Jeremy Hunt to be Chairman of the Conservative Party!

Failing him, Gove!

Yes, either would be good at changing CCHQ from its recent amateur status to the election fighting force it needs to be.

foxinsoxuk

Charles said:

Dura_Ace said:

ydoethur said:

Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.

I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.

Attacking conditions and benefits are not necessarily a sign that they are poor on defence

The QE class ships are a major distortion of our Navy, and do not have the escorts needed. Is this worth losing our amphibious capability and one of the RM Commando's?

malcolmg

foxinsoxuk said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/perfidiousalbn/status/917286346951192576

Not a stupid idea at all.

Would get the windbag out of Scotland so gets my vote, though it would probably mean her big baw face would be in papers and on TV more so has a big downside.

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Foxinsox, you're blaming the Coalition/Conservatives for the carriers, for which Brown is entirely responsible (signing a contract whereby building both was cheaper than cancelling one)?

MikeSmithson

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris is 10/1. Anyone who still thinks the Prime Minister has the authority to reshuffle or sack any of her big beasts without triggering a leadership challenge and her own early retirement should lump on. Remember to save your bus fare home. On the other hand, if you think Boris would welcome the rubber chicken circuit and the chance to be the highest profile chairman since Norman Tebbit, the advice is the same.

Does James Cleverly count as military enough? He's a colonel in the TA, according to Wikipedia, so the same rank as Labour's next leader. He has a good speaking voice and comes across well on television.

One name on the list that is not like the others is Zac. If the Tories are short of money after GE2017 then appointing a squillionaire chairman might be an easy fix.

Zac - the Bollywood fan

https://youtu.be/vWPVvGH_dlo

SouthamObserver

Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171020/encuesta-cataluna-6368599

As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.

SouthamObserver

Meanwhile, latest Spain-wide poll shows PSOE closing gap on PP; Ciudadanos vote rising and Podemos vote falling compared to the last GE.
https://twitter.com/electograph/status/922022699672784898

DavidL

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/perfidiousalbn/status/917286346951192576

Ruth's ambition is to campaign to become FM in Scotland. It is almost certainly an overly ambitious ambition but it is one that could do the Tories a lot of good north of the border even if it fails. It is a full time job and then some. Taking on a national roll that would require her to spend a lot of time outside Scotland would be fatal.

OldKingCole

foxinsoxuk said:

Yorkcity said:

Dura_Ace said:

ydoethur said:

Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.

I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.

I believe many Police personnel feel the same.

And Cameron's plans for a clinician led NHS, without onerous targets and top down reorganisations did the opposite in 2010 for NHS workers. The Pulse survey had 50% of doctors voting Tory, though I think that has dropped off a lot since.

'plans for a clinician led NHS, without onerous targets and top down reorganisations’

That’s worked out well, hasn’t it!

TOPPING

Cons could disband HMF and Lab could close down every A&E in the country and each would still be perceived as strong on defence and the NHS respectively.

OldKingCole

SouthamObserver said:

Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171020/encuesta-cataluna-6368599

As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.

Majority of Catalans or people living in Catalonia? How many ‘immigrants’ to Scotland voted No in the Sindy referendum?

foxinsoxuk

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Foxinsox, you're blaming the Coalition/Conservatives for the carriers, for which Brown is entirely responsible (signing a contract whereby building both was cheaper than cancelling one)?

No, I blame both Labour and Conservatives for them. It is the Consrrvatives who now propose RN cuts that end amphibious capability, and neither party properly addressed the needs for aircraft andd escorts. We would really need a substantial uplift in RN budget to make them useful.

Morris_Dancer

Dr. Foxinsox, I agree entirely that the proposed cuts to Defence (again) are short-sighted and stupid. There'd be more Defence budget to play with if Labour hadn't buggered things, however, (both Defence-specific and running a deficit in a boom right before the worst recession in British history).

another_richard

SandyRentool said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Dura_Ace said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

Party chairman might be a good place to shift Boris when he finally overstays his welcome at the foreign office.

I don't think Boris would take it, but he would be well suited to it.

JRM would see it as promotion and is a better organiser.

May is more likely to put someone there who is no threat.

Would JRM want it? What is his ambition? If he wants to be Speaker one day then he would probably want to steer clear of such an overtly political post.

TSE's idea of a military man to exploit Labour's weakness on defence is fine except that it risks allowing Labour to exploit the Tories' weakness on defence.

This is not a market for the unwary or uninformed punter such as myself.

The tory record on defence is probably worse than Labour when viewed dispassionately.

Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.

At the same time I can't see how it would make any difference. Corbyn's views and past were very well known and it didn't stop him being the second most electorally successful Labour leader of the last fifty years. If the Conservatives don't have something positive on the economy and society then his unabashed bungs to the middle classes at the expense of the poor will surely still trump (no pun intended) doubts about his links to extremism or the threat to national security.

Not convinced in Brown - some of the idiot decisions made on the QE class of carriers are at the heart of today's problems

QE class? HMS Fiscal Stimulus?

And deployed against SLAB's enemy the SNP.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Foxinsox, I agree entirely that the proposed cuts to Defence (again) are short-sighted and stupid. There'd be more Defence budget to play with if Labour hadn't buggered things, however, (both Defence-specific and running a deficit in a boom right before the worst recession in British history).

Eeesh, correcting your historical inaccuracies is a full time job.

The recession of 1919-21 was a worse recession.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, one does not concern oneself with a period so recent that to refer to it as 'historical' is vulgar.

SouthamObserver

OldKingCole said:

SouthamObserver said:

Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171020/encuesta-cataluna-6368599

As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.

Majority of Catalans or people living in Catalonia? How many ‘immigrants’ to Scotland voted No in the Sindy referendum?

Voters in Catalonia. The wealthier and more Catalan you are the likelier you are to back separation:

https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/09/29/inenglish/1506691641_240457.html

another_richard

Dura_Ace said:

ydoethur said:

Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.

I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.

How well did the Cameron government treat military personnel ?

ThomasNashe

MikeSmithson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris is 10/1. Anyone who still thinks the Prime Minister has the authority to reshuffle or sack any of her big beasts without triggering a leadership challenge and her own early retirement should lump on. Remember to save your bus fare home. On the other hand, if you think Boris would welcome the rubber chicken circuit and the chance to be the highest profile chairman since Norman Tebbit, the advice is the same.

Does James Cleverly count as military enough? He's a colonel in the TA, according to Wikipedia, so the same rank as Labour's next leader. He has a good speaking voice and comes across well on television.

One name on the list that is not like the others is Zac. If the Tories are short of money after GE2017 then appointing a squillionaire chairman might be an easy fix.

Zac - the Bollywood fan

https://youtu.be/vWPVvGH_dlo

That is the most cringeworthy interview of all time! In retrospect, probably the moment at which Sadiq clinched the mayoralty.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171020/encuesta-cataluna-6368599

As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.

The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.

another_richard

foxinsoxuk said:

Charles said:

Dura_Ace said:

ydoethur said:

Worse than Labour's record under Blair and Brown, probably. Worse than Corbyn would be? That's got to be considered doubtful.

I was an officer for 9 years under Conservative governments (Thatcher/Major) and 8 years under Labour (Blair). I certainly know which complexion of politician attacked conditions and benefits the most and it wasn't the red team.

Attacking conditions and benefits are not necessarily a sign that they are poor on defence

The QE class ships are a major distortion of our Navy, and do not have the escorts needed. Is this worth losing our amphibious capability and one of the RM Commando's?

They're to be used for posturing not fighting.

TheScreamingEagles

Dan Hodges is a sage.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/922028320765726720

Essexit

Cleverly could be a smart choice.

PClipp

HYUFD said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Hunt would be a good outside bet to shake up CCHQ.

That is a brilliant suggestion! Yes!! Jeremy Hunt to be Chairman of the Conservative Party!

Failing him, Gove!

Yes, either would be good at changing CCHQ from its recent amateur status to the election fighting force it needs to be.

Both have a first-class record of wrecking the institutions they were supposedly there to lead and improve. That is why I would thoroughly approve of either taking charge of the Conservative Party.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/922030260375511041

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171020/encuesta-cataluna-6368599

As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.

The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.

Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.

Pong

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dan Hodges is a sage.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/922028320765726720

"Some Ministers believe there is now a dangerous disengagement at the top of Government. They were aghast last Sunday to see a briefing from Philip Hammond indicating that he would be getting down with the kids, axing pensions relief, and offering tax cuts for younger voters. ‘This is the problem with having both a Prime Minister and Chancellor who aren’t political,’ one Minister conceded. ‘Yes, if you want to tackle decades of intergenerational unfairness this is a great idea. But if you ever want to see another Tory majority, it’s madness.’"

Bollox. It's the painful but necessary rebirth of conservatism.

Nigelb

I liked this bit:
Tom Tugendhat has the attributes to deal with the perceptions that the Tories are out of touch with younger voters. He has a masters in Islamics from Cambridge, speaks fluent Arabic...

Perhaps not foremost among the attributes required to be in touch with most younger voters ?

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171020/encuesta-cataluna-6368599

As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.

The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.

Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.

As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/thistlejohn/status/922027946344402945

ThomasNashe

Pong said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dan Hodges is a sage.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/922028320765726720

"Some Ministers believe there is now a dangerous disengagement at the top of Government. They were aghast last Sunday to see a briefing from Philip Hammond indicating that he would be getting down with the kids, axing pensions relief, and offering tax cuts for younger voters. ‘This is the problem with having both a Prime Minister and Chancellor who aren’t political,’ one Minister conceded. ‘Yes, if you want to tackle decades of intergenerational unfairness this is a great idea. But if you ever want to see another Tory majority, it’s madness.’"

Bollox. It's the painful but necessary rebirth of conservatism.

Come off it. It's Dan's finest hour, since he so brilliantly called the 2010 leadership election for Miliband ... (David).

David_Evershed

Essexit said:

Cleverly could be a smart choice.

Cleverly would surely be a clever choice.

TOPPING

ThomasNashe said:

MikeSmithson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris is 10/1. Anyone who still thinks the Prime Minister has the authority to reshuffle or sack any of her big beasts without triggering a leadership challenge and her own early retirement should lump on. Remember to save your bus fare home. On the other hand, if you think Boris would welcome the rubber chicken circuit and the chance to be the highest profile chairman since Norman Tebbit, the advice is the same.

Does James Cleverly count as military enough? He's a colonel in the TA, according to Wikipedia, so the same rank as Labour's next leader. He has a good speaking voice and comes across well on television.

One name on the list that is not like the others is Zac. If the Tories are short of money after GE2017 then appointing a squillionaire chairman might be an easy fix.

Zac - the Bollywood fan

https://youtu.be/vWPVvGH_dlo

That is the most cringeworthy interview of all time! In retrospect, probably the moment at which Sadiq clinched the mayoralty.

Nope it was when, in an Evening Standard interview (My London), he said that his favourite shop was his local Londis.

I mean please - don't insult us.

another_richard

Nigelb said:

I liked this bit:
Tom Tugendhat has the attributes to deal with the perceptions that the Tories are out of touch with younger voters. He has a masters in Islamic from Cambridge, speaks fluent Arabic...

Perhaps not foremost among the attributes required to be in touch with most younger voters ?

And Arab countries are rather more intolerant of homosexuality than the DUP.

HYUFD

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Hunt would be a good outside bet to shake up CCHQ.

That is a brilliant suggestion! Yes!! Jeremy Hunt to be Chairman of the Conservative Party!

Failing him, Gove!

Yes, either would be good at changing CCHQ from its recent amateur status to the election fighting force it needs to be.

Both have a first-class record of wrecking the institutions they were supposedly there to lead and improve. That is why I would thoroughly approve of either taking charge of the Conservative Party.

Both have reformed health and education but not in a way the left approves of as they have favoured the consumer rather than just the producer.

NickPalmer

On topic: Boris, surely? A natural fit - can be vacuous and affable and take every opportunity for publicity. Not a great organiser but good at delegating.

On mind-changing: I think PB is pretty civilised and people can say they've changed and get a respectful response - puzzled that someone (kle4?) thought that even those who agree would slag the changer off. The hints that Fox and Beverley may vote Labour next time are great as far as I'm concerned.

On Catalonia: a proper referendum might be worth a shot, but Cameron has copyrighted that phrase, and not in a good way. The poll is encouraging for integrationists, but the multiple-choice format makes it risky - if you say "would you like independence or one of this array of alternatives?" it squeezes the actual support for independence vs any specific alternative.

On defence: IIRC YouGov showed the Tories having only a narrow lead on it. I don't think this is because people think Corbyn would revive our global military might (even I'd LOL at that idea) but that people think both parties are pretty rubbish. In the absence of an apparent threat, it's not a very salient issue, though (which is presumably why the Tories don't really bother either).

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171020/encuesta-cataluna-6368599

As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.

The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.

Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.

As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.

Yep - that’s a product of the independence vote coalescing. But you need close to 70 seats to govern. ERC will be well short of that, so would need to be in coalition. That becomes much harder if more autonomy is on the negotiating table. The end game here - the one that Madrid needs to get to - is a referendum in Catalonia on more autonomy within Spain.

ThomasNashe

TOPPING said:

ThomasNashe said:

MikeSmithson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris is 10/1. Anyone who still thinks the Prime Minister has the authority to reshuffle or sack any of her big beasts without triggering a leadership challenge and her own early retirement should lump on. Remember to save your bus fare home. On the other hand, if you think Boris would welcome the rubber chicken circuit and the chance to be the highest profile chairman since Norman Tebbit, the advice is the same.

Does James Cleverly count as military enough? He's a colonel in the TA, according to Wikipedia, so the same rank as Labour's next leader. He has a good speaking voice and comes across well on television.

One name on the list that is not like the others is Zac. If the Tories are short of money after GE2017 then appointing a squillionaire chairman might be an easy fix.

Zac - the Bollywood fan

https://youtu.be/vWPVvGH_dlo

That is the most cringeworthy interview of all time! In retrospect, probably the moment at which Sadiq clinched the mayoralty.

Nope it was when, in an Evening Standard interview (My London), he said that his favourite shop was his local Londis.

I mean please - don't insult us.

LOL! I missed that one!

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dan Hodges is a sage.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/922028320765726720

BIG day at Wembley for me..... and I don't mean Radio 1's Teen Awards bash

HYUFD

NickPalmer said:

On topic: Boris, surely? A natural fit - can be vacuous and affable and take every opportunity for publicity. Not a great organiser but good at delegating.

On mind-changing: I think PB is pretty civilised and people can say they've changed and get a respectful response - puzzled that someone (kle4?) thought that even those who agree would slag the changer off. The hints that Fox and Beverley may vote Labour next time are great as far as I'm concerned.

On Catalonia: a proper referendum might be worth a shot, but Cameron has copyrighted that phrase, and not in a good way. The poll is encouraging for integrationists, but the multiple-choice format makes it risky - if you say "would you like independence or one of this array of alternatives?" it squeezes the actual support for independence vs any specific alternative.

On defence: IIRC YouGov showed the Tories having only a narrow lead on it. I don't think this is because people think Corbyn would revive our global military might (even I'd LOL at that idea) but that people think both parties are pretty rubbish. In the absence of an apparent threat, it's not a very salient issue, though (which is presumably why the Tories don't really bother either).

As long as Britain has a larger military than Spain or Argentina, to in theory defend Gibraltar and the Falklands, which it still does we would almost certainly not be taking military action without being alongside the US, NATO or the U.N. so it is really about how effective the military is in that role rather than raw numbers.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Dan Hodges is a sage.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/922028320765726720

BIG day at Wembley for me..... and I don't mean Radio 1's Teen Awards bash

Spurs win nailed on, have bet on it.

Jurgen Klopp's record at Wembley is worse than Spurs.

David_Evershed

volcanopete said:

I'd rather be a layer than a backer in this market.Matthew Hancock,an apt name,has been absent from public view for some time.I don't think he's been mucking out stables in Newmarket but have the Tories given up on him because of his seemingly uncontrollable,involuntary,jerky movements of his hand and wrist whilst speaking,leading to an obvious new moniker which makes Mrs Volcano giggle? Can't he just sit on his hands?

Mathew Hanock is a good writer but a poor speaker. A classic backroom person.

Theuniondivvie

malcolmg said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/perfidiousalbn/status/917286346951192576

Not a stupid idea at all.

Would get the windbag out of Scotland so gets my vote, though it would probably mean her big baw face would be in papers and on TV more so has a big downside.

If she took on another job, where would Ruth find the time to fulfill that vital duty of msps, the constituency surgery? I'm sure her constituents are continually keen to hear her views on education, the NHS, Universal Credit, the Rape Clause, Brexit etc, not to mention the worrying incidence of bigotry and racism amongst SCon elected representatives.

Oh.

https://twitter.com/CaroleMagoha/status/880890979947089920

SandyRentool

Long-odds candidate for Labour leadership on Peston. ..

Richard_Tyndall

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Hmm. Was Rory Stewart in the military?

Anyway, fresh blood would be good.

Only briefly. Commissioned into the Black Watch during his gap year. Certainly a better use of his time than getting stoned in Thailand.

another_richard

David_Evershed said:

volcanopete said:

I'd rather be a layer than a backer in this market.Matthew Hancock,an apt name,has been absent from public view for some time.I don't think he's been mucking out stables in Newmarket but have the Tories given up on him because of his seemingly uncontrollable,involuntary,jerky movements of his hand and wrist whilst speaking,leading to an obvious new moniker which makes Mrs Volcano giggle? Can't he just sit on his hands?

Mathew Hanock is a good writer but a poor speaker. A classic backroom person.

Wasn't Matthew Hancock one of the ministers who authorised the payments of taxpayers money to Kids Company despite being told not to by civil servants ?

NickPalmer

HYUFD said:

As long as Britain has a larger military than Spain or Argentina, to in theory defend Gibraltar and the Falklands, which it still does we would almost certainly not be taking military action without being alongside the US, NATO or the U.N. so it is really about how effective the military is in that role rather than raw numbers.

Yes, I agree (!). Insofar as we want to be able to assist in distant ops (which I might be up for in a UNO context, but certainly not to assist Mr Trump invading Mexico or Iran), sealift is critical. My understanding is that it used to be almost non-existent, then we made an effort for a bit, and now we're fading again. But others here will know more.

malcolmg

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/perfidiousalbn/status/917286346951192576

Ruth's ambition is to campaign to become FM in Scotland. It is almost certainly an overly ambitious ambition but it is one that could do the Tories a lot of good north of the border even if it fails. It is a full time job and then some. Taking on a national roll that would require her to spend a lot of time outside Scotland would be fatal.

It would be in the national interest however.

DavidL

What does May want from her Party Chairman? Some more discipline in the Parliamentary Party, cash, someone to restore somewhat battered morale and a talking head that sounds more coherent than most senior ministers do at the moment, all of these things would be nice but the most important things are loyalty (she knows she is going to face a challenge at some point but would no doubt prefer to choose that point) and someone she can get on with. One of her many weaknesses, honed to perfection during the long years in the Home Office, is her desire for small teams that don't speak out of turn or to anyone else.

Ben Wallace is a surprising omission from this list.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Latest polling from Catalonia, published on Friday, shows a majority of Catalans opposed to UDI and wanting an arrangement that keeps Catalonia in Spain:

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171020/encuesta-cataluna-6368599

As I’ve said on here many times before - give the Catalans what the Basques have and the crisis goes away. That could have happened years ago, of course, but for the PP.

The most popular option in Catalonia in that poll is actually to call new elections to avoid losing autonomy (which polls say would see the pro independence ERC emerge as the largest party), the second most popular option is to declare independence and the option to call off the independence threat and to negotiate with Spain was last.

Not sure you’ve read the whole thing: 55% specifically oppose UDI; 46% want more autonomy within Spain; 36% want independence.

As with Scotland as with Quebec the most popular long-term option is more autonomy rather than outright independence but in the short term the most popular option is new elections which would likely see the pro independence ERC win most seats.

Yep - that’s a product of the independence vote coalescing. But you need close to 70 seats to govern. ERC will be well short of that, so would need to be in coalition. That becomes much harder if more autonomy is on the negotiating table. The end game here - the one that Madrid needs to get to - is a referendum in Catalonia on more autonomy within Spain.

Yes though the PP is a long way from that yet and we are still in the awkward situation where the PP is the most popular party in Spain and the ERC the most popular party in Catalonia. Think the Tories being the most popular party in the UK and the SNP in Scotland except the PP not even willing to yet get to a Tory level of compromise.

NickPalmer

Brexit poll update from Opinium. Summary: May is handling it badly, it's all very difficult, but underlying opinion much as before.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/21/brexit-poll-opinium-eu-no-deal