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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on who will be Foreign Secretary on the 1st of January

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  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,317
    HYUFD said:

    Hillary says she will not run again for President.

    Thank goodness for that!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585
    DavidL said:

    The BBC says the Sunday Times reports the budget may include cancellation of student loans. If so, there will need to be some industrial strength reverse ferreting from Tories who warned it would cost elebenty squillion pounds when Jeremy Corbyn mentioned the possibility.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390

    I just don't see how we could possibly afford that. But a pretty much permanent freeze on the level of loans and a much more generous interest rate and repayment regime would be possible. The challenge then would be to ensure that University level education remains adequately funded going forward, the challenge the fees were supposed to address in the first place.
    The Tories will still keep tuition fees, unlike Corbyn Labour and there have also been moves to link fees closer to the graduate earning premium as well as reducing the burden of loans.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,068
    Mr. L, talent rising to the top of politics is a view not necessarily in keeping with the reality of today.
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    TSE, as a hardcore Leaver I agree that Cameron would be a good to great Foreign Secretary. I also agree that it won't happen.

    I also don't see how Cameron can be Foreign Secretary when he is neither in the Commons or the Lords now?
    Not like there’s recent precedent for something like that.

    Oh wait.
    Boris returned to the Commons at the 2015 general election, I see no evidence Cameron has any desire too, he is quite happy leading the life of a country squire in Oxfordshire and working with his national citizenship service and charity work

    Home was a former PM who became Foreign Secretary but he was still MP for Kinross and Western Perthshire at the time
    I was thinking of Peter Mandelson, neither an MP nor a peer when he was brought into the cabinet by Gordon Brown in 2008, who then ennobled Mandy.
    Yep, Shami Chakrabarti is in the Shadow Cabinet, she wasn't elected by anybody.
    There are always unelected Lords in the Cabinet/Shadow Cabinet.

    Your point is? Ah, there isn't one.

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    TSE, as a hardcore Leaver I agree that Cameron would be a good to great Foreign Secretary. I also agree that it won't happen.

    I also don't see how Cameron can be Foreign Secretary when he is neither in the Commons or the Lords now?
    Not like there’s recent precedent for something like that.

    Oh wait.
    Boris returned to the Commons at the 2015 general election, I see no evidence Cameron has any desire too, he is quite happy leading the life of a country squire in Oxfordshire and working with his national citizenship service and charity work

    Home was a former PM who became Foreign Secretary but he was still MP for Kinross and Western Perthshire at the time
    I was thinking of Peter Mandelson, neither an MP nor a peer when he was brought into the cabinet by Gordon Brown in 2008, who then ennobled Mandy.
    Yep, Shami Chakrabarti is in the Shadow Cabinet, she wasn't elected by anybody.
    There are always unelected Lords in the Cabinet/Shadow Cabinet.

    Your point is? Ah, there isn't one.
    My point is I'm rather fond of democracy.

    I understand you don't care for it, but I'm happy to side with the electorate.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,385
    Pleasant piece on cross-party friendships (which I found were common, mostly generated through joint committee work):

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/15/fiercest-of-enemies-best-of-friends-cross-party-pals-parliament-mps
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771
    Jonathan said:

    Gove to FO

    Robert Kennedy used to tell a story about all the mail he received from LBJ after he because Senator of New York being addressed "R Kennedy, SOB". I suspect your post is similar.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.
    Not sure what you mean by that. I don't see what money they've spent on Brexit.
    The wilful economic damage caused by their insistence on leaving the single market.
    Something also backed by Corbyn you mean? Only the LDs and SNP want to stay in the single market, both the Tories and Corbyn Labour do not
    What Corbyn supports is irrelevant to the point here. You can’t claim to be fiscal responsibility when pursuing the economic insanity of hard brexit.
    No what Corbyn supports is very relevant as as long as Corbyn Labour backs hard Brexit it has no grounds to attack the Tories for being 'fiscally irresponsible' by also backing hard Brexit.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771

    Mr. L, talent rising to the top of politics is a view not necessarily in keeping with the reality of today.

    You're right. I am showing my naivety once again.
  • Options
    Grayling lying magnificently on Marr. Him and McDonnell doing brilliant work today.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585

    Pleasant piece on cross-party friendships (which I found were common, mostly generated through joint committee work):

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/15/fiercest-of-enemies-best-of-friends-cross-party-pals-parliament-mps

    As Churchill said, in the Commons 'The opposition occupies the benches in front of you, but the enemy sits behind you.'
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,079

    The key to this market is working out the price for Boris Johnson leaving the role. This could happen in one of four ways.

    1) He jumps.
    2) He is pushed.
    3) Someone else (e.g. Philip Hammond) jumps or is pushed and he is moved into that role.
    4) Theresa May is replaced and he occupies a different role in the new government.

    There are only a few weeks to go before the end of the year but those weeks look likely to be eventful. The Conservatives look unstable at present. Evens looks about right to me for the sum of these possibilities.

    If he goes, he will be replaced by a heavyweight. So most of the options given can be scored out on that basis. Michael Gove, Damian Green and perhaps Sajid Javid look fair value. I'd choose the latter. He's an experienced Cabinet minister, not a headbanger and would represent a fresh start with EU opposite numbers, confounding many Brussels stereotypes about the UK. But would the headbangers accept him?

    Me, I'm not betting on this, mind.

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    Where is Boris 8-1 though ?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC says the Sunday Times reports the budget may include cancellation of student loans. If so, there will need to be some industrial strength reverse ferreting from Tories who warned it would cost elebenty squillion pounds when Jeremy Corbyn mentioned the possibility.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390

    I just don't see how we could possibly afford that. But a pretty much permanent freeze on the level of loans and a much more generous interest rate and repayment regime would be possible. The challenge then would be to ensure that University level education remains adequately funded going forward, the challenge the fees were supposed to address in the first place.
    The Tories will still keep tuition fees, unlike Corbyn Labour and there have also been moves to link fees closer to the graduate earning premium as well as reducing the burden of loans.
    Yes, that's the way I see it too. Its just that the level of the burden has become crushing for far too many people and needs to be addressed. Personally, I would like to see grants introduced for those from disadvantaged backgrounds, even if they only offset some of the fees.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hillary says she will not run again for President.

    Thank goodness for that!
    I expect many Democrats will be saying the same
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,217
    DavidL said:

    Metatron said:

    Find it very odd that Priti Patel the Foreign Aid secretary (and a brexiteer) is 16/1 whilst her deputy Rory Stewart is 10/1.

    Something to do with talent maybe?
    He's been in the army and everything.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC says the Sunday Times reports the budget may include cancellation of student loans. If so, there will need to be some industrial strength reverse ferreting from Tories who warned it would cost elebenty squillion pounds when Jeremy Corbyn mentioned the possibility.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390

    I just don't see how we could possibly afford that. But a pretty much permanent freeze on the level of loans and a much more generous interest rate and repayment regime would be possible. The challenge then would be to ensure that University level education remains adequately funded going forward, the challenge the fees were supposed to address in the first place.
    The Tories will still keep tuition fees, unlike Corbyn Labour and there have also been moves to link fees closer to the graduate earning premium as well as reducing the burden of loans.
    Yes, that's the way I see it too. Its just that the level of the burden has become crushing for far too many people and needs to be addressed. Personally, I would like to see grants introduced for those from disadvantaged backgrounds, even if they only offset some of the fees.
    Yes, an expansion of the bursary system and more grants for those from disadvantaged backgrounds would be good
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
  • Options

    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.
    I think they forfeited that claim when they chose to spend vast sums on Overseas Aid, TLP, H2B and HS2.

    Britain was already spending vast sums on the EU, irrespective of Brexit.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,385
    Pulpstar said:



    Where is Boris 8-1 though ?


    Yes, sorry, misread the header. In that case, I definitely wouldn't bet!
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,324



    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    TSE, as a hardcore Leaver I agree that Cameron would be a good to great Foreign Secretary. I also agree that it won't happen.

    I also don't see how Cameron can be Foreign Secretary when he is neither in the Commons or the Lords now?
    Not like there’s recent precedent for something like that.

    Oh wait.
    Boris returned to the Commons at the 2015 general election, I see no evidence Cameron has any desire too, he is quite happy leading the life of a country squire in Oxfordshire and working with his national citizenship service and charity work

    Home was a former PM who became Foreign Secretary but he was still MP for Kinross and Western Perthshire at the time
    I was thinking of Peter Mandelson, neither an MP nor a peer when he was brought into the cabinet by Gordon Brown in 2008, who then ennobled Mandy.
    Yep, Shami Chakrabarti is in the Shadow Cabinet, she wasn't elected by anybody.
    There are always unelected Lords in the Cabinet/Shadow Cabinet.

    Your point is? Ah, there isn't one.
    My point is I'm rather fond of democracy.

    I understand you don't care for it, but I'm happy to side with the electorate.
    I'd be more than willing to bin the HoL if there was a decent proposal for something with which to replace it.

    But in the absence of that, erecting flimsy straw men to make, well, make no point at all is wilfully dim, even if I recognise that is par for your course.

  • Options
    DavidL said:

    The BBC says the Sunday Times reports the budget may include cancellation of student loans. If so, there will need to be some industrial strength reverse ferreting from Tories who warned it would cost elebenty squillion pounds when Jeremy Corbyn mentioned the possibility.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390

    I just don't see how we could possibly afford that. But a pretty much permanent freeze on the level of loans and a much more generous interest rate and repayment regime would be possible. The challenge then would be to ensure that University level education remains adequately funded going forward, the challenge the fees were supposed to address in the first place.
    How about the government removes itself from the process and leaves it to between the universities and their students what should be the fees.

    Or the government gives every teeneager an 'education and training fund' to be used to pay for further education and training.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

    It won't happen while they're in government. The bridges are burned.

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771
    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Metatron said:

    Find it very odd that Priti Patel the Foreign Aid secretary (and a brexiteer) is 16/1 whilst her deputy Rory Stewart is 10/1.

    Something to do with talent maybe?
    He's been in the army and everything.
    Not really but he has had an astonishing career: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart

    By far the most boring part of it has been being a Tory MP. Unless that is made more interesting for him I fear he will be off doing something else all too soon.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.
    I think they forfeited that claim when they chose to spend vast sums on Overseas Aid, TLP, H2B and HS2.

    Britain was already spending vast sums on the EU, irrespective of Brexit.
    In the same way that if you think education is expensive try ignorance, if you think the EU is expensive try Brexit.
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107



    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    TSE, as a hardcore Leaver I agree that Cameron would be a good to great Foreign Secretary. I also agree that it won't happen.

    I also don't see how Cameron can be Foreign Secretary when he is neither in the Commons or the Lords now?
    Not like there’s recent precedent for something like that.

    Oh wait.
    Boris returned to the Commons at the 2015 general election, I see no evidence Cameron has any desire too, he is quite happy leading the life of a country squire in Oxfordshire and working with his national citizenship service and charity work

    Home was a former PM who became Foreign Secretary but he was still MP for Kinross and Western Perthshire at the time
    I was thinking of Peter Mandelson, neither an MP nor a peer when he was brought into the cabinet by Gordon Brown in 2008, who then ennobled Mandy.
    Yep, Shami Chakrabarti is in the Shadow Cabinet, she wasn't elected by anybody.
    There are always unelected Lords in the Cabinet/Shadow Cabinet.

    Your point is? Ah, there isn't one.
    My point is I'm rather fond of democracy.

    I understand you don't care for it, but I'm happy to side with the electorate.
    I'd be more than willing to bin the HoL if there was a decent proposal for something with which to replace it.

    But in the absence of that, erecting flimsy straw men to make, well, make no point at all is wilfully dim, even if I recognise that is par for your course.

    Haha!

    It always amuses me when when dopes get embarrassed on forums.

    You may agree with unelected people sitting in cabinet, I don't. Ho hum.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771

    DavidL said:

    The BBC says the Sunday Times reports the budget may include cancellation of student loans. If so, there will need to be some industrial strength reverse ferreting from Tories who warned it would cost elebenty squillion pounds when Jeremy Corbyn mentioned the possibility.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390

    I just don't see how we could possibly afford that. But a pretty much permanent freeze on the level of loans and a much more generous interest rate and repayment regime would be possible. The challenge then would be to ensure that University level education remains adequately funded going forward, the challenge the fees were supposed to address in the first place.
    How about the government removes itself from the process and leaves it to between the universities and their students what should be the fees.

    Or the government gives every teeneager an 'education and training fund' to be used to pay for further education and training.
    Universities are publically funded institutions of strategic importance to the country. There is no way that the government can simply remove itself from the process. And we can't afford to give everyone a fund, there is no money left. I would not be against the idea that those doing multi-year apprenticeships for high skilled jobs should have access to funds on the same generous terms as students though. We need more and better alternatives to arts degrees which do so little to boost the earning capacity of the recipients (ducks).
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC says the Sunday Times reports the budget may include cancellation of student loans. If so, there will need to be some industrial strength reverse ferreting from Tories who warned it would cost elebenty squillion pounds when Jeremy Corbyn mentioned the possibility.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390

    I just don't see how we could possibly afford that. But a pretty much permanent freeze on the level of loans and a much more generous interest rate and repayment regime would be possible. The challenge then would be to ensure that University level education remains adequately funded going forward, the challenge the fees were supposed to address in the first place.
    How about the government removes itself from the process and leaves it to between the universities and their students what should be the fees.

    Or the government gives every teeneager an 'education and training fund' to be used to pay for further education and training.
    Universities are publically funded institutions of strategic importance to the country. There is no way that the government can simply remove itself from the process. And we can't afford to give everyone a fund, there is no money left. I would not be against the idea that those doing multi-year apprenticeships for high skilled jobs should have access to funds on the same generous terms as students though. We need more and better alternatives to arts degrees which do so little to boost the earning capacity of the recipients (ducks).
    The creative sector of the economy actually brings in a lot of revenue, we need some arts graduates but probably not as many as we have at the moment.
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.
    I think they forfeited that claim when they chose to spend vast sums on Overseas Aid, TLP, H2B and HS2.

    Britain was already spending vast sums on the EU, irrespective of Brexit.
    In the same way that if you think education is expensive try ignorance, if you think the EU is expensive try Brexit.
    I much prefer your insulting posts to your considered and well researched thread headers, far more entertaining!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585
    edited October 2017
    Starmer on Peston says he opposes no deal but wants to keep payments to the EU 'as low as possible.'

    Good luck with that!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.

    It won't happen while they're in government. The bridges are burned.

    They need to start whilst in government focussing on housing, especially for first time buyers, student loans and giving better rights to those in casual work. If they don't they will have nothing to say to the next generation other than we told you so and that is rarely welcomed.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,068
    edited October 2017
    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC says the Sunday Times reports the budget may include cancellation of student loans. If so, there will need to be some industrial strength reverse ferreting from Tories who warned it would cost elebenty squillion pounds when Jeremy Corbyn mentioned the possibility.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390

    I just don't see how we could possibly afford that. But a pretty much permanent freeze on the level of loans and a much more generous interest rate and repayment regime would be possible. The challenge then would be to ensure that University level education remains adequately funded going forward, the challenge the fees were supposed to address in the first place.
    How about the government removes itself from the process and leaves it to between the universities and their students what should be the fees.

    Or the government gives every teeneager an 'education and training fund' to be used to pay for further education and training.
    Universities are publically funded institutions of strategic importance to the country. There is no way that the government can simply remove itself from the process. And we can't afford to give everyone a fund, there is no money left. I would not be against the idea that those doing multi-year apprenticeships for high skilled jobs should have access to funds on the same generous terms as students though. We need more and better alternatives to arts degrees which do so little to boost the earning capacity of the recipients (ducks).
    The creative sector of the economy actually brings in a lot of revenue, we need some arts graduates but probably not as many as we have at the moment.
    I was expecting much worse abuse than that.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.
    I think they forfeited that claim when they chose to spend vast sums on Overseas Aid, TLP, H2B and HS2.

    Britain was already spending vast sums on the EU, irrespective of Brexit.
    In the same way that if you think education is expensive try ignorance, if you think the EU is expensive try Brexit.
    I much prefer your insulting posts to your considered and well researched thread headers, far more entertaining!
    In your case I'd say you've tried ignorance enough and could usefully start experimenting with alternatives.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Does it really matter who is F sec. The list is full of duds as it the current F sec.
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.
    I think they forfeited that claim when they chose to spend vast sums on Overseas Aid, TLP, H2B and HS2.

    Britain was already spending vast sums on the EU, irrespective of Brexit.
    In the same way that if you think education is expensive try ignorance, if you think the EU is expensive try Brexit.
    I much prefer your insulting posts to your considered and well researched thread headers, far more entertaining!
    In your case I'd say you've tried ignorance enough and could usefully start experimenting with alternatives.
    Brilliant!!!
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771
    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    Dan Hodges sums that up brilliantly this morning

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/919491560420577281
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC says the Sunday Times reports the budget may include cancellation of student loans. If so, there will need to be some industrial strength reverse ferreting from Tories who warned it would cost elebenty squillion pounds when Jeremy Corbyn mentioned the possibility.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390

    I just don't see how we could possibly afford that. But a pretty much permanent freeze on the level of loans and a much more generous interest rate and repayment regime would be possible. The challenge then would be to ensure that University level education remains adequately funded going forward, the challenge the fees were supposed to address in the first place.
    How about the government removes itself from the process and leaves it to between the universities and their students what should be the fees.

    Or the government gives every teeneager an 'education and training fund' to be used to pay for further education and training.
    Universities are publically funded institutions of strategic importance to the country. There is no way that the government can simply remove itself from the process. And we can't afford to give everyone a fund, there is no money left. I would not be against the idea that those doing multi-year apprenticeships for high skilled jobs should have access to funds on the same generous terms as students though. We need more and better alternatives to arts degrees which do so little to boost the earning capacity of the recipients (ducks).
    The creative sector of the economy actually brings in a lot of revenue, we need some arts graduates but probably not as many as we have at the moment.
    I was expecting much worse abuse than that.
    I will leave you to face the fury of Hampstead later!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585
    Starmer also confirms Labour opposes any second referendum on leaving the EU and Labour will support the UK leaving the EU in March 2019 but it is about what happens after.
  • Options

    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.
    I think they forfeited that claim when they chose to spend vast sums on Overseas Aid, TLP, H2B and HS2.

    Britain was already spending vast sums on the EU, irrespective of Brexit.
    In the same way that if you think education is expensive try ignorance, if you think the EU is expensive try Brexit.
    Says the man who predicted an immediate recession after the Leave vote.

    You did have an elegant turn of phrase though. IIRC it was dark cloaks, skeletal fingers and voices of doom speaking in block capitals.

    Meanwhile the stock markets are at record heights (with consequential boost to my finances) and rather less happily we have so much business at my job I'm going to have to do a couple of hours of work on a Sunday.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    Dan Hodges sums that up brilliantly this morning

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/919491560420577281

    All Labour needs to do is make clear that it would not do what the government is doing. If Brexit goes wrong that's the only requirement.

  • Options

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    Then we Leave, you Leavers promised sunlit uplands upon Leaving, it'll be easy.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,286
    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    And their grandparents are, or should be, too. It’s obvious to me, and I think it’s getting through to some of our friends.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    edited October 2017

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    The alternative is to withdraw article 50 and come up with a 10 to 15 year plan to disengage Britain from the EU. There is no reason Britain shouldn't be able to survive and even thrive outside of the EU. The problem is trying to run the leave project too quickly. But of course, if you run it over several general elections the probability is that people will swing back to supporting remaining in.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,978
    Some posters appear to be under the impression that Labour's 'No to No Deal' position is claiming to be based on the realities of the negotiations, rather than just playing politics to make things even more awkward for Tezzie.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    Dan Hodges sums that up brilliantly this morning

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/919491560420577281

    All Labour needs to do is make clear that it would not do what the government is doing. If Brexit goes wrong that's the only requirement.

    Logically impossible, if Labour attack the Tories for agreeing no deal because the EU is demanding too much money the Tories will simply ask Labour how much they are willing to pay the EU then
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,951

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    Dan Hodges sums that up brilliantly this morning

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/919491560420577281

    All Labour needs to do is make clear that it would not do what the government is doing. If Brexit goes wrong that's the only requirement.

    TBH they don't even have to do that. Cameron and Osborne promised to match Labour spending. It didn't stop them doing a 180 a couple of hears hence.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771
    Completely O/T but when did maths change?

    My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

    6/2(1+2) = X

    When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

    Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

    I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585
    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,327
    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but when did maths change?

    My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

    6/2(1+2) = X

    When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

    Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

    I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

    I see this sort of nonsense on Facebook. Surely the point is, get everything bracketed correctly ad then there is no debate.
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    Dan Hodges sums that up brilliantly this morning

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/919491560420577281

    All Labour needs to do is make clear that it would not do what the government is doing. If Brexit goes wrong that's the only requirement.

    TBH they don't even have to do that. Cameron and Osborne promised to match Labour spending. It didn't stop them doing a 180 a couple of hears hence.
    Indeed, Labour and John Smith were staunch supporters of the UK joining the ERM, when that when that went mammary glands up, he didn't take a hit, and slaughtered the government.

    'The devalued Prime Minister of a devalued Government.'
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    Dan Hodges sums that up brilliantly this morning

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/919491560420577281

    All Labour needs to do is make clear that it would not do what the government is doing. If Brexit goes wrong that's the only requirement.

    Logically impossible, if Labour attack the Tories for agreeing no deal because the EU is demanding too much money the Tories will simply ask Labour how much they are willing to pay the EU then

    Nope, what is being said now is for consumption later. Brexit goes wrong - Labour says we were saying back in 2017 the government was messing the negotiation up.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    Dan Hodges sums that up brilliantly this morning

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/919491560420577281

    All Labour needs to do is make clear that it would not do what the government is doing. If Brexit goes wrong that's the only requirement.

    TBH they don't even have to do that. Cameron and Osborne promised to match Labour spending. It didn't stop them doing a 180 a couple of hears hence.
    They had to do it before the next general election, hence the Tories did not get a majority in 2010
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but when did maths change?

    My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

    6/2(1+2) = X

    When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

    Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

    I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

    BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,128

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    The alternative is to withdraw article 50 and come up with a 10 to 15 year plan to disengage Britain from the EU. There is no reason Britain shouldn't be able to survive and even thrive outside of the EU. The problem is trying to run the leave project too quickly. But of course, if you run it over several general elections the probability is that people will swing back to supporting remaining in.
    Why would the EU agree to that?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,217
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    The alternative is to withdraw article 50 and come up with a 10 to 15 year plan to disengage Britain from the EU. There is no reason Britain shouldn't be able to survive and even thrive outside of the EU. The problem is trying to run the leave project too quickly. But of course, if you run it over several general elections the probability is that people will swing back to supporting remaining in.
    Why would the EU agree to that?
    BMW and Mercedes would make them.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,022

    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but when did maths change?

    My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

    6/2(1+2) = X

    When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

    Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

    I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

    BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.
    Morning all,

    Who is telling him the answer is 9?
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    The alternative is to withdraw article 50 and come up with a 10 to 15 year plan to disengage Britain from the EU. There is no reason Britain shouldn't be able to survive and even thrive outside of the EU. The problem is trying to run the leave project too quickly. But of course, if you run it over several general elections the probability is that people will swing back to supporting remaining in.
    Why would the EU agree to that?
    It would piss them off mightily. And that is obviously bad. But I thought leavers were rebels who didn't care about that kind of thing.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,022
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
    Social Care is a total mess. I really don't see why May doesn't announce a Royal Commission and get on with solving this in a cross-party manner.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    Dan Hodges sums that up brilliantly this morning

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/919491560420577281

    All Labour needs to do is make clear that it would not do what the government is doing. If Brexit goes wrong that's the only requirement.

    Logically impossible, if Labour attack the Tories for agreeing no deal because the EU is demanding too much money the Tories will simply ask Labour how much they are willing to pay the EU then

    Nope, what is being said now is for consumption later. Brexit goes wrong - Labour says we were saying back in 2017 the government was messing the negotiation up.

    We are leaving the EU by April 2019 ie before the next general election. So ultimately Labour will have to have come to a firm position before the country next goes to the polls. Brexit goes 'wrong' because the government refuses to pay 50 to 100 billion euros to the EU by the end of March 2019 and the Tories simply tell Labour 'you are either with us or with paying 50 to 100 billion of taxpayers money to the EU'
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,022
    Meanwhile across the pond:

    "Larry Flynt, the pornography publisher, is offering "up to $10 million" to anyone who produces information that leads to President Donald Trump's impeachment and removal from office."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/14/porn-publisher-larry-flynt-offers-10-million-dirt-impeach-donald/
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    And their grandparents are, or should be, too. It’s obvious to me, and I think it’s getting through to some of our friends.
    Am I right in thnking that the £9k only started in 2012/13 ?

    If so it was only after the 2015 GE that graduates started seeing the full debt situation.

    And as the number of affected graduates has grown since then and the number of their parents and grandparents saw the ever increasing debt levels an electoral timebomb was set running.

    The Conservatives are rather fortunate they were made aware of this now - by 2020 it would have been much larger.

  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,354

    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.
    Not sure what you mean by that. I don't see what money they've spent on Brexit.
    The wilful economic damage caused by their insistence on leaving the single market.
    You state a hypothetical situation as fact. Their insistence is based on what the electorate (remember them?) instructed them to do.
    Sorry, remind me of the referendum where we voted to leave he single market?
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    The BBC says the Sunday Times reports the budget may include cancellation of student loans. If so, there will need to be some industrial strength reverse ferreting from Tories who warned it would cost elebenty squillion pounds when Jeremy Corbyn mentioned the possibility.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390

    I just don't see how we could possibly afford that. But a pretty much permanent freeze on the level of loans and a much more generous interest rate and repayment regime would be possible. The challenge then would be to ensure that University level education remains adequately funded going forward, the challenge the fees were supposed to address in the first place.
    The Tories will still keep tuition fees, unlike Corbyn Labour and there have also been moves to link fees closer to the graduate earning premium as well as reducing the burden of loans.
    You mean like income tax?
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,483

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.
    Corbyn also backs Brexit and May tried fiscal responsibility last time, probably too much, she should have eased back a little on the austerity rhetoric and gone harder on tax cuts and Labour's tax rise plans rather than proposing the disastrous dementia tax
    Labour don't need to claim fiscal responsibility. From their viewpoint it's enough for the Conservatives to lose the right to make that claim.
    This is perhaps the most pervasive effect of Brexit on the Tories. There's obviously been a cultural backlash, but it's more that in pursuing it, even at the people's instruction, they've lost the right to pose as responsible caretakers of the economy who'll keep things ticking over while people get on with their lives. That was always the Tories' greatest attraction and their founding Burkean principle - but of course the Brexiteers forgot that and demanded revolution without stopping to think that they rarely turn out how you'd like as the destruction of the status quo creates a Year 0 where anything goes. Lots of voters who endorsed Cameron because he was "getting on with the job" have now reluctantly embraced Corbyn because if we're not concerned about fiscal responsibility any more, you might as well go for the guy who a) didn't cause this mess and b) would be spending on you out of altruism. Even if it's true it's difficult to argue the point that his socialism would be a unique economic disaster when you appear to be intent on enacting one yourself.

    Getting rid of austerity won't help tackle that, it'll just appear to confirm Corbyn's right. The only way the Tories can get back on track is by delivering the sunlit uplands promised by Brexiteers - a feat that may well be logically as well as practically impossible.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771

    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but when did maths change?

    My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

    6/2(1+2) = X

    When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

    Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

    I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

    BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.
    Morning all,

    Who is telling him the answer is 9?
    My son' maths teacher. And the reason is indeed the application of BODMAS. You deal with the brackets first so that becomes 3 but you then start from the left so you do the 6/2 first before the multiplication.

    But I am pretty sure that when I was at school you also dealt with the factor outside the brackets next giving the 6 before the division.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,317

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
    Social Care is a total mess. I really don't see why May doesn't announce a Royal Commission and get on with solving this in a cross-party manner.
    Because, as a Civil Servant just said on R5...
    "This year we are mostly doing Brexit."
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
    I disagree, assets over £100 000 would still be liable for care costs under the Tories plans (including the home if they needed residential care) it was including the home for personal care costs that was the problem.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,278
    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    Or to reinforce the point that seven years later we are still all living with the legacy of Gordon Brown, and that Jeremy Corbyn would make Gordon Brown look like a miser in comparison.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
    Social Care is a total mess. I really don't see why May doesn't announce a Royal Commission and get on with solving this in a cross-party manner.
    Have we not done that already? We had a Royal Commission in 1999 and the Dilnot Commission in 2010. But a party manifesto was probably the worst possible place to move something like this forward.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,782
    Essexit said:

    TSE, as a hardcore Leaver I agree that Cameron would be a good to great Foreign Secretary. I also agree that it won't happen.

    Seconded.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,377
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Metatron said:

    Find it very odd that Priti Patel the Foreign Aid secretary (and a brexiteer) is 16/1 whilst her deputy Rory Stewart is 10/1.

    Something to do with talent maybe?
    He's been in the army and everything.
    Not really but he has had an astonishing career: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart

    By far the most boring part of it has been being a Tory MP. Unless that is made more interesting for him I fear he will be off doing something else all too soon.
    Useless as an MP regardless, typical Tory.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585
    MJW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.
    Corbyn also backs Brexit and May tried fiscal responsibility last time, probably too much, she should have eased back a little on the austerity rhetoric and gone harder on tax cuts and Labour's tax rise plans rather than proposing the disastrous dementia tax
    Labour don't need to claim fiscal responsibility. From their viewpoint it's enough for the Conservatives to lose the right to make that claim.
    This is perhaps the most pervasive effect of Brexit on the Tories. There's obviously been a cultural backlash, but it's more that in pursuing it, even at the people's instruction, they've lost the right to pose as responsible caretakers of the economy who'll keep things ticking over while people get on with their lives. That was always the Tories' greatest attraction and their founding Burkean principle - but of course the Brexiteers forgot that and demanded revolution without stopping to think that they rarely turn out how you'd like as the destruction of the status quo creates a Year 0 where anything goes. Lots of voters who endorsed Cameron because he was "getting on with the job" have now reluctantly embraced Corbyn because if we're not concerned about fiscal responsibility any more, you might as well go for the guy who a) didn't cause this mess and b) would be spending on you out of altruism. Even if it's true it's difficult to argue the point that his socialism would be a unique economic disaster when you appear to be intent on enacting one yourself.

    Getting rid of austerity won't help tackle that, it'll just appear to confirm Corbyn's right. The only way the Tories can get back on track is by delivering the sunlit uplands promised by Brexiteers - a feat that may well be logically as well as practically impossible.
    No, it is by attacking Corbyn's tax rise plans.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but when did maths change?

    My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

    6/2(1+2) = X

    When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

    Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

    I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

    BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.
    Morning all,

    Who is telling him the answer is 9?
    My son' maths teacher. And the reason is indeed the application of BODMAS. You deal with the brackets first so that becomes 3 but you then start from the left so you do the 6/2 first before the multiplication.

    But I am pretty sure that when I was at school you also dealt with the factor outside the brackets next giving the 6 before the division.
    I think you have to remember there is an implicit "*" between the first "2" and the "(".
    So applying BODMAS, the 6/2 is done before the multiplication by (1+2) and the answer is 9.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    Dan Hodges sums that up brilliantly this morning

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/919491560420577281

    All Labour needs to do is make clear that it would not do what the government is doing. If Brexit goes wrong that's the only requirement.

    Logically impossible, if Labour attack the Tories for agreeing no deal because the EU is demanding too much money the Tories will simply ask Labour how much they are willing to pay the EU then

    Nope, what is being said now is for consumption later. Brexit goes wrong - Labour says we were saying back in 2017 the government was messing the negotiation up.

    We are leaving the EU by April 2019 ie before the next general election. So ultimately Labour will have to have come to a firm position before the country next goes to the polls. Brexit goes 'wrong' because the government refuses to pay 50 to 100 billion euros to the EU by the end of March 2019 and the Tories simply tell Labour 'you are either with us or with paying 50 to 100 billion of taxpayers money to the EU'

    Yep - Labour says we will do a deal with the EU to mitigate the effects of this disastrous Brexit that has already cost the economy much more than what we were being asked to pay. The Tories say we won't do that. I am not sure Labour will be too worried about that.

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,377

    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but when did maths change?

    My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

    6/2(1+2) = X

    When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

    Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

    I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

    BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.
    Dodgy school you went to
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,327
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but when did maths change?

    My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

    6/2(1+2) = X

    When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

    Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

    I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

    BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.
    Morning all,

    Who is telling him the answer is 9?
    My son' maths teacher. And the reason is indeed the application of BODMAS. You deal with the brackets first so that becomes 3 but you then start from the left so you do the 6/2 first before the multiplication.

    But I am pretty sure that when I was at school you also dealt with the factor outside the brackets next giving the 6 before the division.
    Excel says 9.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,782

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.
    Not sure what you mean by that. I don't see what money they've spent on Brexit.
    The wilful economic damage caused by their insistence on leaving the single market.
    Something also backed by Corbyn you mean? Only the LDs and SNP want to stay in the single market, both the Tories and Corbyn Labour do not
    What Corbyn supports is irrelevant to the point here.
    it's relevant if he c supports the same policy since you have to judge relative positions - neither may be fiscally responsible, but both will claim to be, who is the least full of crap.

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,022
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    snip.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
    Social Care is a total mess. I really don't see why May doesn't announce a Royal Commission and get on with solving this in a cross-party manner.
    Have we not done that already? We had a Royal Commission in 1999 and the Dilnot Commission in 2010. But a party manifesto was probably the worst possible place to move something like this forward.
    Yep. One can only assume they thought they would get sign-off for their major change because May was about to get a landslide no matter what they said, or perhaps that no one would notice the measure in the manifesto.

    Very perplexing. It's put back the issue for years.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
    I disagree, assets over £100 000 would still be liable for care costs under the Tories plans (including the home if they needed residential care) it was including the home for personal care costs that was the problem.
    Why should the State pay for personal care to increase the inheritance? I accept that there might be some exclusions and some deferrals until after death but I really don't see why these costs incurred in life are not the first call on someone's wealth.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,128

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. HYUFD, *sighs*

    No deal is not a good result.

    But if you rule it out and the EU want £100bn, what then?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. L, you're spot on about housing.

    The alternative is to withdraw article 50 and come up with a 10 to 15 year plan to disengage Britain from the EU. There is no reason Britain shouldn't be able to survive and even thrive outside of the EU. The problem is trying to run the leave project too quickly. But of course, if you run it over several general elections the probability is that people will swing back to supporting remaining in.
    Why would the EU agree to that?
    It would piss them off mightily. And that is obviously bad. But I thought leavers were rebels who didn't care about that kind of thing.
    But it's not in our power to unilaterally withdraw A50. So, the agreement of each of the 27 States would be needed.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,782
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    TSE, as a hardcore Leaver I agree that Cameron would be a good to great Foreign Secretary. I also agree that it won't happen.

    I also don't see how Cameron can be Foreign Secretary when he is neither in the Commons or the Lords now?
    Not like there’s recent precedent for something like that.

    Oh wait.
    Boris returned to the Commons at the 2015 general election, I see no evidence Cameron has any desire too, he is quite happy leading the life of a country squire in Oxfordshire and working with his national citizenship service and charity work

    Home was a former PM who became Foreign Secretary but he was still MP for Kinross and Western Perthshire at the time
    It would be a hell of a change in direction from him, and given he left in the first place there's no sign he'd want to get involved in such a difficult situation.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Metatron said:

    Find it very odd that Priti Patel the Foreign Aid secretary (and a brexiteer) is 16/1 whilst her deputy Rory Stewart is 10/1.

    Something to do with talent maybe?
    He's been in the army and everything.
    Not really but he has had an astonishing career: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart

    By far the most boring part of it has been being a Tory MP. Unless that is made more interesting for him I fear he will be off doing something else all too soon.
    Useless as an MP regardless, typical Tory.
    Goes without saying Malcolm. Even although he is a Scot.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,022
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
    Social Care is a total mess. I really don't see why May doesn't announce a Royal Commission and get on with solving this in a cross-party manner.
    Because, as a Civil Servant just said on R5...
    "This year we are mostly doing Brexit."
    indeed. And for next five years probably.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,327
    Can I just say, I was never taught BODMAS at school. And actually, I'm grateful for that because I just bracket every component in Excel.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,256
    edited October 2017
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
    "Tony Blair explained his priorities in three words: education, education, education, I can do it in three letters: NHS."

    People believe that they've already paid for the social care through their NI contributions.

    What the Conservatives should have done was put social care under the NHS and, very publicly, increase NHS funding (without mentioning its extra responsibilities).

    To pay for the extra funding increase taxes on property or a levy on unpopular businesses.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,128
    MJW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.
    Corbyn also backs Brexit and May tried fiscal responsibility last time, probably too much, she should have eased back a little on the austerity rhetoric and gone harder on tax cuts and Labour's tax rise plans rather than proposing the disastrous dementia tax
    Labour don't need to claim fiscal responsibility. From their viewpoint it's enough for the Conservatives to lose the right to make that claim.
    This is perhaps the most pervasive effect of Brexit on the Tories. There's obviously been a cultural backlash, but it's more that in pursuing it, even at the people's instruction, they've lost the right to pose as responsible caretakers of the economy who'll keep things ticking over while people get on with their lives. That was always the Tories' greatest attraction and their founding Burkean principle - but of course the Brexiteers forgot that and demanded revolution without stopping to think that they rarely turn out how you'd like as the destruction of the status quo creates a Year 0 where anything goes. Lots of voters who endorsed Cameron because he was "getting on with the job" have now reluctantly embraced Corbyn because if we're not concerned about fiscal responsibility any more, you might as well go for the guy who a) didn't cause this mess and b) would be spending on you out of altruism. Even if it's true it's difficult to argue the point that his socialism would be a unique economic disaster when you appear to be intent on enacting one yourself.

    Getting rid of austerity won't help tackle that, it'll just appear to confirm Corbyn's right. The only way the Tories can get back on track is by delivering the sunlit uplands promised by Brexiteers - a feat that may well be logically as well as practically impossible.
    As it happens, the Conservatives do still have a big lead over Labour on the economy.

    And, millions of voters are very keen on Brexit. You win some voters, and you lose others.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but when did maths change?

    My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

    6/2(1+2) = X

    When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

    Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

    I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

    BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.
    Morning all,

    Who is telling him the answer is 9?
    My son' maths teacher. And the reason is indeed the application of BODMAS. You deal with the brackets first so that becomes 3 but you then start from the left so you do the 6/2 first before the multiplication.

    But I am pretty sure that when I was at school you also dealt with the factor outside the brackets next giving the 6 before the division.
    Excel says 9.
    I don't think there is any doubt that 9 is the right answer. I am relieved that others also thought it was 1.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.

    Dementia is a lottery. The cost of dealing with it should be shared, just as the costs of dealing with cancer or heart disease are shared. But what the Tories proposed was a huge leap forward and could have been the basis of a constructive debate that ended with concrete, workable measures involving taxation of all properties, not just those of the afflicted. Of course, if the Tories had not scuppered Burnham's plans in 2010 with their Death Tax it would not have been an issue in 2017.

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,022
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    snip
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
    I disagree, assets over £100 000 would still be liable for care costs under the Tories plans (including the home if they needed residential care) it was including the home for personal care costs that was the problem.
    Why should the State pay for personal care to increase the inheritance? I accept that there might be some exclusions and some deferrals until after death but I really don't see why these costs incurred in life are not the first call on someone's wealth.
    That's not how we view health spending. So why draw the line for care? The most expensive care is for people who have serious illnesses like dementia.

    This is why we need a serious public debate about the way forward.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,782
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
    Your first sentence is harsh, but on the second and third, Agreed. And now nothing will happen at all.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,585
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea truly pathetic.
    I disagree, assets overproblem.
    Why should the State pay for personal care to increase the inheritance? I accept that there might be some exclusions and some deferrals until after death but I really don't see why these costs incurred in life are not the first call on someone's wealth.
    You can take the moral high ground if you like but inheritance tax and the dementia tax were deeply unpopular with the voters, especially with the high value of house prices at least inheritance ensures some of that benefit filters down to the younger generation. That was why the Tories got a big boost after cutting the former and a big hit by proposing the latter.

    Funding care beyond the assets already provided should be by social insurance/national insurance as it is in Japan and the Netherlands or by encouraging insurance provision secured against the value of the home as an option
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited October 2017
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but when did maths change?

    My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

    6/2(1+2) = X

    When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

    Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

    I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

    BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.
    Morning all,

    Who is telling him the answer is 9?
    My son' maths teacher. And the reason is indeed the application of BODMAS. You deal with the brackets first so that becomes 3 but you then start from the left so you do the 6/2 first before the multiplication.

    But I am pretty sure that when I was at school you also dealt with the factor outside the brackets next giving the 6 before the division.
    I think it is ambiguous because of the punctuation; if xy is a legitimate way of writing x multiplied by y, then 2(1+2) is 6: from the layout, because they aren't using proper notation, we don't know if all of 2(1+2), or only 2, is below the line represented by /
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,782
    Sean_F said:

    MJW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    They need to win the battle of ideas, and show their way is the best way for young people to own their own homes, get decent jobs and have a prosperous future.

    The days when the tories could sell themselves as the party of a prosperous future are now behind us. It's a laughable proposition while they are willfully damaging the country's economy just because some people are scared the European Court will ban Union Jack underpants.

    Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
    When the Conservatives chose to spend vast sums on Brexit, they forfeited any claim to fiscal responsibility. Quite how they retrieve the position is hard to see.
    Corbyn also backs Brexit and May tried fiscal responsibility last time, probably too much, she should have eased back a little on the austerity rhetoric and gone harder on tax cuts and Labour's tax rise plans rather than proposing the disastrous dementia tax
    Labour don't need to claim fiscal responsibility. From their viewpoint it's enough for the Conservatives to lose the right to make that claim.
    This is perhaps the most pervasive effect of Brexit on the Tories. There's obviously been a cultural backlash, but it's more that in pursuing it, even at the people's instruction, they've lost the right to pose as responsible caretakers of the economy who'll keep things ticking over while people get on with their lives. That was always the Tories' greatest attraction and their founding Burkean principle - but of course the Brexiteers forgot that and demanded revolution without stopping to think that they rarely turn out how you'd like as the destruction of the status quo creates a Year 0 where anything goes. Lots of voters who endorsed Cameron because he was "getting on with the job" have now reluctantly embraced Corbyn because if we're not concerned about fiscal responsibility any more, you might as well go for the guy who a) didn't cause this mess and b) would be spending on you out of altruism. Even if it's true it's difficult to argue the point that his socialism would be a unique economic disaster when you appear to be intent on enacting one yourself.

    Getting rid of austerity won't help tackle that, ssible.
    As it happens, the Conservatives do still have a big lead over Labour on the economy.

    And, millions of voters are very keen on Brexit. You win some voters, and you lose others.
    We're due a recession - the economic lead won't last through another one.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,354

    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but when did maths change?

    My son has drawn my attention to the following sum:

    6/2(1+2) = X

    When I were a lad X=1 because you would deal with the brackets and the multiple of the brackets first so it ends up 6/6.

    Now, apparently, the answer is 9 by having 6/2 multiply the 3 from the brackets.

    I have seen over the years that there are several highly competent and qualified mathematicians on here. Has this changed and if so when?

    BODMAS still applies, it hasn't been superseded.
    I agree the answer should be 9 (as does Google). In BODMAS division takes place before multiplication, so it’s (6/2)*(1+2).

    As others say, the issue here is really the lack of brackets which causes needless ambiguity.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    .
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
    "Tony Blair explained his priorities in three words: education, education, education, I can do it in three letters: NHS."

    People believe that they've already paid for the social care through their NI contributions.

    What the Conservatives should have done was put social care under the NHS and, very publicly, increase NHS funding (without mentioning its extra responsibilities).

    To pay for the extra funding increase taxes on property or a levy on unpopular businesses.
    People believe all kinds of weird things Richard. Some people even believe we should be in the EU, even now. But that doesn't make it true.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple of it but not the main issue.
    The situation is so bad with the Tories and young people that they will have to do a lot even to get some sort of a hearing. It will not pay dividends in the short term but if the party is to survive in the long run it needs to start. The longest journeys etc.
    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea truly pathetic.
    I disagree, assets overproblem.
    Why should the State pay for personal care to increase the inheritance? I accept that there might be some exclusions and some deferrals until after death but I really don't see why these costs incurred in life are not the first call on someone's wealth.
    You can take the moral high ground if you like but inheritance tax and the dementia tax were deeply unpopular with the voters, especially with the high value of house prices at least inheritance ensures some of that benefit filters down to the younger generation. That was why the Tories got a big boost after cutting the former and a big hit by proposing the latter.

    Funding care beyond the assets already provided should be by social insurance/national insurance as it is in Japan and the Netherlands or by encouraging insurance provision secured against the value of the home as an option
    Totally agree .
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,377
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
    I disagree, assets over £100 000 would still be liable for care costs under the Tories plans (including the home if they needed residential care) it was including the home for personal care costs that was the problem.
    Why should the State pay for personal care to increase the inheritance? I accept that there might be some exclusions and some deferrals until after death but I really don't see why these costs incurred in life are not the first call on someone's wealth.
    Why then should people who work have to pay to keep people who don't, by your logic everyone should pay their own way. Have to say it would be significantly cheaper to buy really good cover for life compared to the sums I have paid to the government for supposed cover.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,771
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    alex. said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    This analysis looks right to me, which makes 8-1 for Boris value - he might well go, but do we really know that a reshuffle is imminent? There is a case against it (it would be portrayed as TM's last roll of the dice) and May's record is not one of swift, decisive action. Like Alasatir I think it works out at about 1-1, not 8-1.

    But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.

    On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.

    The political problem for the Tories isn't "young" people, it is their parents.
    Their parents are annoyed that their kids are getting treated like shit to buy votes from wrinklies. And so they should be.
    Their parents were annoyed at the dementia tax which stuffed the inheritance they were set to get following Osborne's IHT cut
    I still find the idea that the State should spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on a persons care so they can leave hundreds of thousands of pounds to the next generation who chose not to look after their parent themselves morally obscene. The underlying principle of the dementia tax was to my mind unimpeachable. The way it was introduced, explained, justified and run away from truly pathetic.
    I disagree, assets over £100 000 would still be liable for care costs under the Tories plans (including the home if they needed residential care) it was including the home for personal care costs that was the problem.
    Why should the State pay for personal care to increase the inheritance? I accept that there might be some exclusions and some deferrals until after death but I really don't see why these costs incurred in life are not the first call on someone's wealth.
    Why then should people who work have to pay to keep people who don't, by your logic everyone should pay their own way. Have to say it would be significantly cheaper to buy really good cover for life compared to the sums I have paid to the government for supposed cover.
    If they have large amounts of capital we don't give them benefits until that capital is exhausted. It is the elderly we are treating differently. The State is there to cover needs not inheritance pots.
This discussion has been closed.