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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on who will be Foreign Secretary on the 1st of January 2018
Ladbrokes have a market up who will be Foreign Secretary on the 1st of January 2018, I quite like these kind of markets. Boris Johnson’s actions in recent weeks has led many to urge Mrs May to conduct a reshuffle to rid her of her meddlesome Foreign Secretary. With rumours abounding that Mrs May will conduct a reshuffle after this week’s EU Council Summit, this looks like a tempting market.
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https://www.gov.uk/government/news/autumn-budget-2017-date-confirmed
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-41625390
Brilliant! We're leaving with a deal whether the EU like it or not! Can't think why we're wasting time talking to them.
In reality, I bet the story is nonsense.
It wouldn't cost really very much, just crystallising early recognition of bad debt.
A sensible Chancellor might say that when we leave the EU and no longer have to advance loans to every EU student (who have massive default rates), then the rates of interest can be lowered for both new and historic loans to British students, say to CPI+1% interest.
It can encourage behaviours such as emigration after graduation, dropout of those facing poor results, self-removal from the workforce due to family commitments etc. which we need to be discouraging. The loan amount, gaining interest, works better as a tool of persuasion to graduate and remain in the workforce.
There’s also the issue of would a graduate tax be payable by older graduates who went to university under different systems? Most working journalists and MPs fall into this category...
Mr. Eagles, didn't you tip the evens on Boris yesterday?
Edited extra bit: good news for Lando Norris, who may well be in F1 in the coming years:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/41625172
There’s still the issue of those who don’t pay UK income tax after graduation though.
The current system stops people voting Conservative and therefore something must be done. The Chancellor may feel other considerations, valid or not, are secondary to that.
Pthers have pointed out upthread about the associated problems and he whole question of funding students should be carefully thought through.
Which might have done when grants were switched to loans but certainly doesn’t appear to have been done since!
All I've seen is that about 60% of EU have paid off their tuition fees in full by the end of their course.
Given the governments loss of control over the student loan debate, a graduate tax seems the only way to cauterize the wound. Making UK tax globally payable by UK citizens would also be necessary.
Finally, degree cost needs to be linked to quality of degree and future earning. Having a link between the amount a student repays and the amount the Uni gets would be a quick fix.
But would they be a good idea in other areas? For instance, Jeremy Hunt is offering inducements to doctors to set up in seaside towns.After Brexit (and out of CAP) farmers will need protection from bad harvests. It may be that in these and other situations, a loan to be repaid only if some target or other is met might be better than just handing out cash as the prospect of repayment would encourage enterprise and allow the sums to be larger and more effective, at lower cost to the Treasury.
I would suggest a negative interest rate, so the outstanding debt decreased by 3% per year, rather than increased by 6.2%.
According to the Treasury Select Committee as many as 83% of these loans are never going to be fully paid off. Writing them down more swiftly is merely recognition that these debts are sub prime.
In six years there is expected to be £160 billion of student debt:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4687451/mp-probe-taxpayers-student-loan-debt-bill/
I have been honestly surprised at just how politically inept Hammond has been. He used to be seen as the "safe pair of hands" in any role.
I think the biggest issue is that a degree has been devalued so much that a large proportion of the new loans will never be paid back by the declining numbers of the middle classes.
The more I think about it, the more I like the US two-tier system of red brick colleges and local community colleges. Those studying at the top universities pay massive fees if they can afford it, and almost nothing if they can’t, supported by many wealthy benefactors. The local community colleges are free for locals and a nominal cost for outsiders, supported by taxpayers where necessary.
That said, I would consider two things on student loans: (1) interest rate no higher than CPI (2) give students options on choosing the repayment rate from above £25k ranging from 4% to 9%, or making the 4-9% sliding scale up to earning £45k, and removing any penalties for repaying earlier.
People like to be in control of their debts, to know they can pay them off and how/ when they choose.
I’m reminded of the famous quote attributed to John Reid, on appointment by Blair to that ministry.
We're all Corbynites now.
Local colleges with 2 year degree courses definitely a good plan.
The Conservatives under May appear to be a redder shade of blue. Nobody yearns for Diet Pepsi. Muppets.
She is an exceedingly poor politician. She may be brim full of ideas, she may be literate, numerate, literate and wise, but it's all to no avail. She always look artificial.
When she tries to look determined, she gurns. When she tries to do sincerity, she exaggerates her facial expressions.
Gordon had the same problem, and it often tripped up Ed Milliband.
Jezza is thick , one-faceted, and can't think on his feet, but he can act. Being PM requires you to be able to act or you to believe in what you are saying. Jezza fits on both, so his stupidity doesn't matter. Cameron and Blair could act and were bright, Their judgement eventually tripped them up, but they got a hearing.
That's why Hollywood actors pronouncing on subjects they only vaguely understand is effective. Someone whose ability extends to being able to pretend to be somebody else is thus listened to.
Sorry, Mrs May, stick to being a spear carrier.
May, whose judgement has repeatedly been exposed as dire
Fox, who seems more interested in glorifying his role and specifying cruisers for himself than doing his job
Johnson, who repeatedly embarrasses himself and his country with not so smart remarks and newspaper columns
Hammond for all his other faults at least gives some sense that he understands the scale of the predicament we are in.
How do you work out an equitable repayment scheme?
Or more likely an auto-correct fail.
Further proof it is a bad idea.
Source: have a student loan from 2001 (which I should be finally paying off next month
In the event of Davis taking over in the next few months as party leader I think Rudd would be a good bet as Foreign Secretary, pre Brexit completion I think the MPs would engineer a Davis v Rudd runoff to be sent to the membership which I think Davis would win but FS would be Rudd's reward for a decent campaign.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election
A Yorkshireman goes to an undertaker to order a headstone for his recently deceased wife.
"She were a religious woman," he said. "I'd like to say ''Lord, she were thine.'
Two days later the man returns to see the inscription saying ...'Lord, she were thin.'"
"You've missed out the 'e' " he says.
The stone mason apologies. The next day the Yorkshireman returns to find the inscription saying ...
'Ee, Lord, she were thin.'
It was of course only once Major had dropped Thatcher's unpopular poll tax and neutralised Kinnock's ammunition on that and promised a bit more money for the NHS etc that he could then hammer Kinnock on Labour's tax rise plans in the 1992 election campaign.
Oh wait.
1) He jumps.
2) He is pushed.
3) Someone else (e.g. Philip Hammond) jumps or is pushed and he is moved into that role.
4) Theresa May is replaced and he occupies a different role in the new government.
There are only a few weeks to go before the end of the year but those weeks look likely to be eventful. The Conservatives look unstable at present. Evens looks about right to me for the sum of these possibilities.
If he goes, he will be replaced by a heavyweight. So most of the options given can be scored out on that basis. Michael Gove, Damian Green and perhaps Sajid Javid look fair value. I'd choose the latter. He's an experienced Cabinet minister, not a headbanger and would represent a fresh start with EU opposite numbers, confounding many Brussels stereotypes about the UK. But would the headbangers accept him?
Me, I'm not betting on this, mind.
Home was a former PM who became Foreign Secretary but he was still MP for Kinross and Western Perthshire at the time
Their only hope now is to outspend Corbyn.
The Tories also did not win last time on fiscal responsibility, ie tax rises and austerity, so there is no point making it the key focus of the campaign next time, attacking Labour's income and inheritance tax rises would be far more sensible
"But these are the people who have to administer the practicalities of a no deal Brexit, how can you just dismiss them"? Exactly.
No deal TWO works on paper with 10 years to prepare. In reality it doesn't work, we aren't prepared not do we have time to be prepared. That simple reality is increasingly becoming visible, I expect the government will be forced to release it's studies into no deal (entitled "we're so fucked"), and that will change the dynamic against the likes of BoZo. Bear that in mind before parting with money - Boris moving up relies on the Tory high command believing in fairies
She also says little hope for a UK trade deal with Trump, in her words 'making a trade deal with someone who does not believe in trade.'
Hillary also says the Leave campaign exported some of their slogans to the Trump campaign which she calls 'false stories' and not linked to facts and evidence and links Farage to the Trump campaign.
She also campaigns Trump's bad body language with women like Merkel he is wary of with holding the hand of May a woman he is more amenable to.
But things are so unstable that I'm not betting on it either.
On tuition fees, the obvious simple remedy would be to lower the outrageous interest rate. Presumably the Student Loan Company would need to be compensated for that (?), but it would look fair and be simple to accomplsh.
That said, I think the prospect of getting lots of votes from it is small - like Labour spending more money on defence, you can get some polite acknowledgements that you're not as bad as they thought, but most of the people involved are too entrenched in thinking you're basically rubbish. The Tories have a cultural problem in addressing younger people - unhappiness over tuiton fees is an expression of it but not the main issue.
Your point is? Ah, there isn't one.