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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BJohnson now clear betting favourite to succeed TMay
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BJohnson now clear betting favourite to succeed TMay
The former Mayor and current foreign secretary is now clear favourite to be the next CON leader but his odds are nothing like as strong as they were in the weekend after the general election.
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Utter shambles.
I wish some of PB's Tories would acknowledge her huge failings.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/18/theresa-may-given-stark-warning-about-leaving-customs-union
Thanks to Mr Herdson for a very good last thread BTW.
The fact that she is still around os a huge testament to her sense of duty, and a sad indictment of the limited options we have until Brexit is complete.
But the drubbing she is getting on the media isn't being reflected in reality. Most people have more empathy than political commentators. She is earning respect. The rest of her government, not so much...
https://mobile.twitter.com/GwilymLockwood/status/918221653389213696
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/new-brexit-cabinet-committee-packed-with-pro-leave-mps_uk_5800e659e4b0010a7f3e7f38
Alas, what options the nation faces. May, Boris, Corbyn.
We have a unwritten constitution but it seems to allow some precedents. Why can't custom and practice set a precedent that a) decisions must be taken by the full cabinet b) proceedings must be minuted? That forces 'elected dictators' like Thatcher, Blair or May to consult colleagues more, like other PMs did.
Three PMs of this kind in the last 40 years is too many. It could be even worse, imagine May with a majority of 50.
As against the very few commentators who are pro brexit - Andrew Neil, Iain Dale, Warner, Moore, Heath, Kirkup - few of whom get much broadcast time and mostly only behind he paywall at the telegraph.
TV and Radio leads opinion now, plus the internet.
I've been quite restrained when I've talked about Mrs May in the past.
Now, about that freezer gag....
I can't see a coronation happening.
They see Brexit as so destructive that in their mind anyone trying to carry it out is an absolute disaster regardless of what they do. Hence the non-stop criticism of the government even when it's their beloved EU acting like a complete arse in negotiations.
It would be more sensible to wait a few years, have a new younger leader, and go for an election while he or she is popular.
Johnson would almost certainly result in another hung parliament. Corbyn will never have an overall majority, but that doesnt mean the Tories will either.
Ironically, the most likely outcome of their actions is a hard, “no-deal” exit from the EU. Maybe they’ll be happy with that, so they can scream that they told us so.
Does George blame himself at all for the student debt shambles and its electoral consequnces ?
I suspect not, the Tories trebled university fees and went from a minority to a majority.
If the policy is well defended, it shouldn't be a problem, Mrs May's narcissistic campaign made sure the economy wasn't discussed as it should have been during the campaign.
Martin Lewis made a better defence of the fees than any Tory this campaign.
There was no 'long term economic plan' during this campaign, there was no mention of Liam Byrne's note.
I know you're no fan of George Osborne, but even you know, as Chancellor or PM he would have hammered Corbyn and McDonnell on the economy, he'd have been relentless, he'd have nailed Corbyn on his vagueness on student debts.
She doesn't look strong enough to survive such a scenario.
Are any Cabinet members unwilling to stomach any continued payments?
Or continued ECJ jurisdiction?
Would any balk at EEA membership?
If she doesn't know their opinions on these questions then that is a fearful dereliction of duty.
Sadly, it would not surprise me at all.
Or cutting social care funding by 40 per cent contributing to the need for an alternative - which led to the dementia tax - while promoting massive amounts of corporate welfare such as help to buy for developers
Or for cutting police budgets and fire budgets and housing budgets which contributed to rising crime, the housing mess and the lack of capacity to respond to major incidents
Or his just generally being a spiteful nasty piece of work as evidenced by his endless tweeting and carping against the current government from the security of his well paid role at the Standard found for him by an oligarch who did so well like many others from his policies.
May may just be useless - but Osborne has contributed to the alienation from politics of so many voters who feel they or more significantly their kids have no future in this country.
Yes it is difficult and it is clear we never should have signed up to all this crud.
And what had changed since 2015 is Labour having a leader who promised to end tuition fees and Osborne's freezing of the repayment threshold telling students they were to be financially shafted for 30 years.
The Conservative campaign was dreadful, filled with arrogance and lack of preparation, but there's no denying that they had been creating vulnerabilities for themselves from 2010 onwards.
And there's a timescale for governments - the Conservatives have been in control for seven years. Once you're into your second term it becomes increasingly hard to blame what you inherited, instead voters judge you on your own record and how it compares to what you said you would do.
Which, to be frank, isn't particulalry good. Now we can have a discussion as to the reasons why but the facts remain that wage and home onwership levels have been stagnant and government borrowing has been way more than predicted. Meanwhile the likes of Philip Green have discredited capitalism further.
The economics of Corbyn and his gang might seem mad to you and me but millions of people think they have nothing to lose and millions more think 'time for a change'.
In a way its fortunate that the general election came this year - a continuation of their policies until 2020 would have led to certain defeat.
Part 2 is more questionable. He may, he may not. Stoke and Mansfield are not noted for the love of obscure Classical reference.
But the real question is could he govern? Would he be prepared to put in the work?
Would his reaction to difficult questions be to tell Corbyn to Sod off, as he did at the GLA?
That might be fun once, but twice?
We know he can campaign.
We also know he has a tendency not to play nicely with others.
The votes shifted when Labour tactical voters realised the Lib Dems weren't a wholly owned subsidiary of the Labour party.
A question does arise about why leaving isn't simple, given the influence of the EU was constantly downplayed by the political class (excepting when they wanted to scratch the back of sceptical voters).
Creating a new legal and regulatory framework/system fit for purpose in the modern multi national world is the challenge, Gove and Boris said that would be easy too.
However, for any deal or transition to occur the EU has to actually negotiate.
The stupid thing is they then say that those decisions should be made by MPs whose only qualification is they were chosen by the very same people who are apparently too stupid to make decisions.
If you think people should not be allowed to vote and should be ruled by a technocracy then have the courage to say it in plain language instead of using dumb concepts like 'populism'. That way we will all be clear that you are not in favour of democracy.
https://mobile.twitter.com/davidsim/status/918426988666343424/photo/1
The EU also has mostly eurozone members, so any 'risk' of other countries toddling off is minimal.
If the EU persists in being needlessly and self-harmingly intransigent, the result will be lose-lose rather than win-win.
Anyway, I must be off.
So again. If you think he substance of Brexit was not discussed enough in the referendum campaign then you are clearly mad.
We're leaving; all that is up for debate now is the manner of that leaving.
REMAIN 48%
The swagger and arrogance of Old Etonians and their ilk, and their presumption that they have an inherent right to rule the UK, is not in the interest of most British people. I was delighted that Cameron was humiIiated on 24/6/17 and I'd rather prefer Corbyn as PM to any Tory toff. However, I do hope that May (who, like Thatcher, is not a toff) is not forced from office before April 2019.
Point me to the great debate about whether we left the single market or not, and the impact leaving would have on Euratom and the Open Skies agreement.
Oh...