BBC News 24 coverage of German Election result is piss poor.
Sky News good with Matthew Goodwin on now
Agreed. BBC offer no analysis or understanding of what these parties stand for, looks as if Schultz is backing away from a Grand Coalition. Merkel's open doors policy appears to have helped AfD's rise.
Christian Lindner (FDP) has supposedly said no to a coalition
In which case, WTF do you get a government from?
You don't, unless the SPD change their minds. Could mean CDU/CSU minority (has that ever happened before?) Could mean a second election....
Second elections look possible in light of the last few minutes. Utter disaster for us. Could easily be the end of Merkel and the election of a full-blooded federalist who thinks those who oppose the EU should be punished by death.
WTO exit in 18 months now about 1-3.
Eh? A Eurosceptic, anti immigration party has just got higher in Germany than even UKIP got in the UK and the CDU/CSU is likely to force Merkel to shift right and toughen her line on immigration and you are saying this is going to lead to the election of a full-blooded federalist? Even the FDP is at loggerheads with Macron and the ultra EU Federalist Schulz got trounced
Yes. Has it occurred to you it may counterintuitively push the CDU to the left and lead them to elect a federalist? They will still form the next government but if Merkel is forced to concede a new election she won't be leading it.
There is zero chance of the CDU moving to the left and giving the AfD an open goal, if Merkel is replaced as CDU leader it will be by someone more conservative
We shall see. Remember, you are assuming they will act rationally. I think after this they may retreat to where hey feel comfortable rather than where they need to be.
Edit - and remember, there was zero chance of Corbyn being elected Labour leader, or of him surviving the election...
If anything the CSU will seek to push the CDU rightwards. Presumably there'll be some kind of low key succession battle over the next few years. My guess is that in terms of EU policy not much will change in Germany.
Better for the UK than the alternatives. Having arch-federalist Schulz as Chancellor would have been suboptimal.
Given the CSU debacle, could it be there might a first German minority government with our "confidence and supply" ?
I doubt it. CDU+FDP+Green with the CSU will already have difficulty in governing, take out a chunk of CSU from their ranks and it will become impossible. The solution is to dump Merkel, shift to the right and defend against AfD by kicking out Merkel's migrants and toughening up migration law in general. Otherwise they will be supplanted like the FDP were I'm Switzerland by the SVP.
The first comedy moment of the evening. Dump Merkel ? God.
Merkel is of course almost as ardent an EU Federalist as Schulz so I fail to see how a big win for her would help Brexit.
The main pro Brexit party, the AfD, by contrast did well at the CDU's expense as did the FDP whose leader is more sympathetic to the City of London and the UK than Merkel is
Surely the CDU/CSU comfort zone would be to move right, after all Corbyn won the leadership by moving Labour left not even more to the centre?
I would have said the CDU think of themselves as centrists and define themselves against the right. Whereas Labour think of themselves as leftists who compromise at times with the centre.
Merkel seems to want an amicable divorce on Europe's terms which are not our terms but are better than nothing, and she is above all a pragmatist who knows that with America unreliable and Russia hostile Europe needs Britain's goodwill. I am worried a successor spooked by the rise of the anti-European right will go for a punishment beating pour encourager les autres without considering the longer-term implications.
Looks like Kerching! on the German elections, especially if it's a Jamaica job.
Meanwhile I see that any pretence that the Labour Party hasn't been taken over by Momentum has been dropped. The shenanigans over Brexit are particularly interesting in the light of the juxtaposition of two things:
1. Jeremy Corbyn's Marr interview today, in which he was refreshingly honest about the fact that Single Market membership would prevent him doing all the mad things he wants to do,
and
2. John Curtice's finding that opposition to Brexit was the most important factor in Labour doing better than expected:
Given the CSU debacle, could it be there might a first German minority government with our "confidence and supply" ?
I doubt it. CDU+FDP+Green with the CSU will already have difficulty in governing, take out a chunk of CSU from their ranks and it will become impossible. The solution is to dump Merkel, shift to the right and defend against AfD by kicking out Merkel's migrants and toughening up migration law in general. Otherwise they will be supplanted like the FDP were I'm Switzerland by the SVP.
The first comedy moment of the evening. Dump Merkel ? God.
I think you’ve covered that one quite well yourself.
A bit of good news. The biggest losses were in Bavaria. So it hit the CSU.
That's like saying that the 2015 labour result wasn't a disaster because SLAB were the biggest losers. It was.
So you are happy with the AfD ?
Not particularly. When they were an anti Euro party I could live with it, but they've gone full on Nazi by the looks of things. It's not a road that I hope Germany continues down. Hopefully it will be a wake up call for Mutti and the CDU will move to the right to win back their voters from AfD.
Hardly Nazi. Of Europe's populist right wing parties, I think that really only describes Jobbik and Golden Dawn.
Some of their stances aren't that different and they have quite a few ex-Nazi members. I'd put them closer to the EDL/BNP than UKIP, for example. I wouldn't be happy going to Germany with AfD in charge.
I'd see them as like the US Republicans - ie very right wing, and well to the right of the mainstream in the UK, but not Nazis.
On Angela Merkel's options for forming a government, perhaps a minority government is more likely than people expect, given that the SPD and AfD are very unlikely to gang up together in any vote. Could the SPD give tacit support by abstention to a CDU/CSU-FDP minority coalition?
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
In 1933 the NSDAP actually did best in the east of what was then Germany, although a lot of that territory now lies within different borders.
You answered your own question - it was mostly in the east of what was Imperial Germany (up to 1918) that terriorial losses occurred due to Versailles.
On Angela Merkel's options for forming a government, perhaps a minority government is more likely than people expect, given that the SPD and AfD are very unlikely to gang up together in any vote. Could the SPD give tacit support by abstention to a CDU/CSU-FDP minority coalition?
The problem with that is that the SPD want to recover in opposition, if they blindly follow Merkel then more of their voters will look at alternatives to the left. They need to oppose the government to start winning voters back.
Hm, if AfD are ultra right, I'm wondering if there is any superlative left to describe actual Nazis?
I too am rather tired of the overuse of the term 'far right' or 'ultra right.'
These parties are right-wing, reactionary and populist. Despite occasionally flirting with the language and tone of some historic far-right groups, they are not nearly as extreme.
It doesn't make them the good guys in any sense, but some proportion and perspective wouldn't go amiss.
There's a term - "national conservative" - we should use but unfortunately don't. It covers parties to the right of Christian Democrats, Atlanticist Conservatives and classical liberals, but who aren't so far-right as to justify Nazi. They are very small-town, suspicious of outsiders, kinder-kuche-kurche and will thump you but who are not into the whole corporatist-state, leader-worship that would distinguish a fascist. People in the UK filter political terms thru their domestic understanding (see the thread below... ) and miss things like this.
They voted to stop the Tories. FPTP encourages negative votes.
Perhaps, but I suspect the real point is that they didn't actually know that Corbyn wants to take us out of the Single Market. Ironically, he's more Eurosceptic than Theresa May, yet anti-Brexit voters used FPTP to make a hard crash-out Brexit more likely and to make it harder for Theresa May to offer compromises to get a deal. It's a funny old world, to be sure.
Given the CSU debacle, could it be there might a first German minority government with our "confidence and supply" ?
I doubt it. CDU+FDP+Green with the CSU will already have difficulty in governing, take out a chunk of CSU from their ranks and it will become impossible. The solution is to dump Merkel, shift to the right and defend against AfD by kicking out Merkel's migrants and toughening up migration law in general. Otherwise they will be supplanted like the FDP were I'm Switzerland by the SVP.
The first comedy moment of the evening. Dump Merkel ? God.
Comedy moment came from you my dear chap ,far right party back into the German parliament for first time in half a century " and you say "So".
So instead of voting Lib Dem, which would make sense, they voted for a party led by a man who has been anti-EU his entire political career. Genius!
They voted to stop the Tories. FPTP encourages negative votes.
If Remainers had got their act together the Lib Dems would be in government, and they did their cause no favour by empowering Corbyn who even today is making clear how little he likes the EU.
I do not know much about German politics but the BBC are saying it is a very bad result for Merkel.
The mantra 'strong and stable' has fallen for the second time this year
Maybe Theresa speech rang a bell when she demanded the return of our laws and sovereignty.!!!!!!
This must be a big moment in Europe.
I fear AFD will be vocal and they are not going away.
The markets will be interesting tomorrow
She can only govern with the so called Jamaica coalition. Not easy to keep four parties happy,
And her party vote share is the worst ever - with the biggest shift being to the AfD and to some extent the liberals. I think we will have a new Chancellor by the next set of elections,
I do not know much about German politics but the BBC are saying it is a very bad result for Merkel.
The mantra 'strong and stable' has fallen for the second time this year
Maybe Theresa speech rang a bell when she demanded the return of our laws and sovereignty.!!!!!!
This must be a big moment in Europe.
I fear AFD will be vocal and they are not going away.
The markets will be interesting tomorrow
She can only govern with the so called Jamaica coalition. Not easy to keep four parties happy,
And her party vote share is the worst ever - with the biggest shift being to the AfD and to some extent the liberals. I think we will have a new Chancellor by the next set of elections,
I do not know much about German politics but the BBC are saying it is a very bad result for Merkel.
The mantra 'strong and stable' has fallen for the second time this year
Maybe Theresa speech rang a bell when she demanded the return of our laws and sovereignty.!!!!!!
This must be a big moment in Europe.
I fear AFD will be vocal and they are not going away.
The markets will be interesting tomorrow
She can only govern with the so called Jamaica coalition. Not easy to keep four parties happy,
And her party vote share is the worst ever - with the biggest shift being to the AfD and to some extent the liberals. I think we will have a new Chancellor by the next set of elections,
Probably within a couple of years. Merkel won't be able to reassert the party's right wing credentials. She is tainted by her stupid migrant policy and other socially liberal policies she has enacted in her grand coalition. A new leader would be able to sell a right wing CDU to the public and someone who can wear enough if AfD's clothes to steal their voters and push them back under 5%.
Perhaps, but I suspect the real point is that they didn't actually know that Corbyn wants to take us out of the Single Market. Ironically, he's more Eurosceptic than Theresa May, yet anti-Brexit voters used FPTP to make a hard crash-out Brexit more likely and to make it harder for Theresa May to offer compromises to get a deal. It's a funny old world, to be sure.
That's a thing about Corbyn's supporters, they may love him but I do wonder how many of them actually share his views. There seem to be an awful lot of rose-tinted spectacles being worn.
I do not know much about German politics but the BBC are saying it is a very bad result for Merkel.
The mantra 'strong and stable' has fallen for the second time this year
Maybe Theresa speech rang a bell when she demanded the return of our laws and sovereignty.!!!!!!
This must be a big moment in Europe.
I fear AFD will be vocal and they are not going away.
The markets will be interesting tomorrow
She can only govern with the so called Jamaica coalition. Not easy to keep four parties happy,
And her party vote share is the worst ever - with the biggest shift being to the AfD and to some extent the liberals. I think we will have a new Chancellor by the next set of elections,
But unless the anger is addressed a new leader will not change things. She has said tonight we have to take on board the views of AFD.
Someone on the BBC was saying that East Germany wants power back and yet another BBC reporter said nothing has changed - seems wishful thinking
Merkel is of course almost as ardent an EU Federalist as Schulz so I fail to see how a big win for her would help Brexit.
The main pro Brexit party, the AfD, by contrast did well at the CDU's expense as did the FDP whose leader is more sympathetic to the City of London and the UK than Merkel is
Surely the CDU/CSU comfort zone would be to move right, after all Corbyn won the leadership by moving Labour left not even more to the centre?
I would have said the CDU think of themselves as centrists and define themselves against the right. Whereas Labour think of themselves as leftists who compromise at times with the centre.
Merkel seems to want an amicable divorce on Europe's terms which are not our terms but are better than nothing, and she is above all a pragmatist who knows that with America unreliable and Russia hostile Europe needs Britain's goodwill. I am worried a successor spooked by the rise of the anti-European right will go for a punishment beating pour encourager les autres without considering the longer-term implications.
The CDU is a centre-right party, they define themselves against the SPD mainly, just they are not as rightwing as the AfD.
Merkel has made clear she will not compromise at all on free movement or exit payments so again I fail to see why you expected her to give May a good deal? As for a punishment beating already CDU/CSU figures I have heard interviewed are talking of listening to AfD concerns on immigration ie one of the key reasons for Brexit in the first place!
They voted to stop the Tories. FPTP encourages negative votes.
Perhaps, but I suspect the real point is that they didn't actually know that Corbyn wants to take us out of the Single Market. Ironically, he's more Eurosceptic than Theresa May, yet anti-Brexit voters used FPTP to make a hard crash-out Brexit more likely and to make it harder for Theresa May to offer compromises to get a deal. It's a funny old world, to be sure.
They listened to May's rhetoric on the EU and Brexit, and concluded she had to be stopped. Voting Labour was the only way to make it happen.
Given the CSU debacle, could it be there might a first German minority government with our "confidence and supply" ?
I doubt it. CDU+FDP+Green with the CSU will already have difficulty in governing, take out a chunk of CSU from their ranks and it will become impossible. The solution is to dump Merkel, shift to the right and defend against AfD by kicking out Merkel's migrants and toughening up migration law in general. Otherwise they will be supplanted like the FDP were I'm Switzerland by the SVP.
The first comedy moment of the evening. Dump Merkel ? God.
Comedy moment came from you my dear chap ,far right party back into the German parliament for first time in half a century " and you say "So".
It's the way you tell them surbi
I thought it was over for the AfD when they lurched to the right and started resembling a BNP type party. The fact that they are able to get 13% of the vote is deeply worrying.
BBC News 24 coverage of German Election result is piss poor.
Sky News good with Matthew Goodwin on now
Agreed. BBC offer no analysis or understanding of what these parties stand for, looks as if Schultz is backing away from a Grand Coalition. Merkel's open doors policy appears to have helped AfD's rise.
They listened to May's rhetoric on the EU and Brexit, and concluded she had to be stopped. Voting Labour was the only way to make it happen.
Some of them might have thought voting Labour was the only way to stop Brexit. They were conned, not only because of the practicalities, but also because the ruling Labour cabal don't want to stop Brexit.
Merkel has made clear she will not compromise at all on free movement or exit payments so again I fail to see why you expected her to give May a good deal?
If you had actually read my post HYUFD you would have noticed I do not expect 'a good deal' from Merkel but I would still expect a deal. Under her successor if one comes in that may be more difficult. That is why I am concerned. An easy victory for Merkel would have made things rather simpler - as would one for May, or for Remain.
Perhaps, but I suspect the real point is that they didn't actually know that Corbyn wants to take us out of the Single Market. Ironically, he's more Eurosceptic than Theresa May, yet anti-Brexit voters used FPTP to make a hard crash-out Brexit more likely and to make it harder for Theresa May to offer compromises to get a deal. It's a funny old world, to be sure.
That's a thing about Corbyn's supporters, they may love him but I do wonder how many of them actually share his views. There seem to be an awful lot of rose-tinted spectacles being worn.
If you want true socialism Corbyn style then it's much easier outside the EU and single market than inside. Those state aid rules are very restrictive if you want to intervene in industry and the wider economy.
Problem is most of his London centric colleagues don't feel that way or want that.
Not sure what FOM has done for young British people in London though bar increase competition for jobs, push down wages and push up rents and house prices? I can see the benefits for those arriving but not for them so much?
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
Bizarrely, Telegraph has a YouGov recent poll map showing AFD most popular in North East - former communist part of germany.
Less (just) than 100 years ago that part of Germany was still under absolute monarchies (the two Duchies of Mecklenburg).
Blimey there's luxury: two Duchies of Mecklenburg! One for weekdays and one for best. Got it all covered these Germans.
You wait all Reich for a Duchy of Mecklenburg ...
V good!
I want to know which Duchy of Mecklenburg was the splitter!
Ooh, that's a good question. They split because of a dynastic dispute over who was the rightful heir. Mecklenburg-Schwerin was the larger of the two, whilst Mecklenburg-Stretlitz (the discriminants are the respective capital cities) was the far western and eastern ends of the unified Duchy and was held by the junior line of the dynasty, so I guess you could call it the splitter.
Interestingly, the two Grand Duchies continued to share some common institutions such as a single Landtag (feudal estates) and used the same flag, and the two Dukes upgraded themselves to Grand Dukes in 1815 together.
Perhaps what was really bonkers was that in the Weimar Republic all these dynastically-split small states continued as federal states of Germany but with the dynastic reason for their existence gone. The modern German Bundesländer are much more sensible.
If you want true socialism Corbyn style then it's much easier outside the EU and single market than inside. Those state aid rules are very restrictive if you want to intervene in industry and the wider economy.
Problem is most of his London centric colleagues don't feel that way or want that.
Not sure what FOM has done for young British people in London though bar increase competition for jobs, push down wages and push up rents and house prices? I can see the benefits for those arriving but not for them so much?
I can't help but wonder how many Corbynistas have signed the "bring back Uber" petition.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
Bizarrely, Telegraph has a YouGov recent poll map showing AFD most popular in North East - former communist part of germany.
Less (just) than 100 years ago that part of Germany was still under absolute monarchies (the two Duchies of Mecklenburg).
Blimey there's luxury: two Duchies of Mecklenburg! One for weekdays and one for best. Got it all covered these Germans.
You wait all Reich for a Duchy of Mecklenburg ...
V good!
I want to know which Duchy of Mecklenburg was the splitter!
Ooh, that's a good question. They split because of a dynastic dispute over who was the rightful heir. Mecklenburg-Schwerin was the larger of the two, whilst Mecklenburg-Stretlitz (the discriminants are the respective capital cities) was the far western and eastern ends of the unified Duchy and was held by the junior line of the dynasty, so I guess you could call it the splitter.
Interestingly, the two Grand Duchies continued to share some common institutions such as a single Landtag (feudal estates) and used the same flag, and the two Dukes upgraded themselves to Grand Dukes in 1815 together.
Perhaps what was really bonkers was that in the Weimar Republic all these dynastically-split small states continued as federal states of Germany but with the dynastic reason for their existence gone. The modern German Bundesländer are much more sensible.
Just love the fact they got upgraded to "Grand" Duchies as part of the Congress of Vienna. Ooh they must've been as pleased as punch with themselves.
Merkel has made clear she will not compromise at all on free movement or exit payments so again I fail to see why you expected her to give May a good deal?
If you had actually read my post HYUFD you would have noticed I do not expect 'a good deal' from Merkel but I would still expect a deal. Under her successor if one comes in that may be more difficult. That is why I am concerned. An easy victory for Merkel would have made things rather simpler - as would one for May, or for Remain.
Why? Any successor is actually more likely to take a tougher line on immigration which is the main thing Merkel has refused to compromise on to give the UK a good deal. So I don't see the logic of your view?
If you want true socialism Corbyn style then it's much easier outside the EU and single market than inside. Those state aid rules are very restrictive if you want to intervene in industry and the wider economy.
Problem is most of his London centric colleagues don't feel that way or want that.
Not sure what FOM has done for young British people in London though bar increase competition for jobs, push down wages and push up rents and house prices? I can see the benefits for those arriving but not for them so much?
I can't help but wonder how many Corbynistas have signed the "bring back Uber" petition.
That is the dilemma. Those that benefit from cheap casual labour are not just an elite. Every cheap Polish plumber has lots of satisfied customers.
We only want to ban cheap competition for our own jobs...
Comments
Merkel seems to want an amicable divorce on Europe's terms which are not our terms but are better than nothing, and she is above all a pragmatist who knows that with America unreliable and Russia hostile Europe needs Britain's goodwill. I am worried a successor spooked by the rise of the anti-European right will go for a punishment beating pour encourager les autres without considering the longer-term implications.
Meanwhile I see that any pretence that the Labour Party hasn't been taken over by Momentum has been dropped. The shenanigans over Brexit are particularly interesting in the light of the juxtaposition of two things:
1. Jeremy Corbyn's Marr interview today, in which he was refreshingly honest about the fact that Single Market membership would prevent him doing all the mad things he wants to do,
and
2. John Curtice's finding that opposition to Brexit was the most important factor in Labour doing better than expected:
http://natcen.ac.uk/blog/who-voted-labour-in-2017
Angela 32% of vote in 2017
The mantra 'strong and stable' has fallen for the second time this year
Maybe Theresa speech rang a bell when she demanded the return of our laws and sovereignty.!!!!!!
This must be a big moment in Europe.
I fear AFD will be vocal and they are not going away.
The markets will be interesting tomorrow
It's the way you tell them surbi
And her party vote share is the worst ever - with the biggest shift being to the AfD and to some extent the liberals. I think we will have a new Chancellor by the next set of elections,
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/911997630170923008?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
The swing voters look like liberal elite, JAM's, and traditional working class.
Someone on the BBC was saying that East Germany wants power back and yet another BBC reporter said nothing has changed - seems wishful thinking
Merkel has made clear she will not compromise at all on free movement or exit payments so again I fail to see why you expected her to give May a good deal? As for a punishment beating already CDU/CSU figures I have heard interviewed are talking of listening to AfD concerns on immigration ie one of the key reasons for Brexit in the first place!
Problem is most of his London centric colleagues don't feel that way or want that.
Not sure what FOM has done for young British people in London though bar increase competition for jobs, push down wages and push up rents and house prices? I can see the benefits for those arriving but not for them so much?
Interestingly, the two Grand Duchies continued to share some common institutions such as a single Landtag (feudal estates) and used the same flag, and the two Dukes upgraded themselves to Grand Dukes in 1815 together.
Perhaps what was really bonkers was that in the Weimar Republic all these dynastically-split small states continued as federal states of Germany but with the dynastic reason for their existence gone. The modern German Bundesländer are much more sensible.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-41367497?app=news.world.europe.live_coverage.41367497.page&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=59c7f0b7e4b0de79b85352d0&'Disaster for Merkel'&&ns_fee=0#post_59c7f0b7e4b0de79b85352d0
And with that I am off. Good night.
I heard him on Marr this morning and he was clear he wants out of the single market and customs union so he can give state aid and nationalise
He is more Brexit than TM
We only want to ban cheap competition for our own jobs...