So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
Does it say where the FDP picked up its support? I'm guessing CDS?
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
What's amazing, though, is how (under Merkel in particular) the income difference between East and West Germany has shrunk. The gap between East German Laander and West German is smaller now than between poorer and richer parts of the UK, which is staggering.
Wow, thanks for that bit of info that's really amazing. So it's not economic anxiety that's the causing Germans in Eastern Germany to vote for these parties then....
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Wow - I always under the impression that it was Southern Germany that was the bedrock of Nazi support. I wonder why East Germany has had these issues with the extreme for so long?
No, it's more about values than economics.
Lots of prominent Nazis came from Bavaria and Austria, but Catholic political parties were dominant in Bavaria (till 1933) and Austria (till 1938). Their voters tended to be Nationalist and authoritarian, but were strongly supportive of their Church, which the Nazis detested.
Surprised to see some think this is a bad result for Merkel. The 32-33% she seems to have got is similar to 2005 (35%) and 2009 (34%).
Aside from doing very well last time - that's remarkable consistency for 12 years.
Not a surprise though that others wish to view German politics solely through the prism of immigration.
32.5% would be the lowest voteshare for the CDU/CSU since 1949, the SPD also would poll their lowest score since WW2 on the exit poll
So ? Your favourite party will still b eignored. If they can get only 13% after 1m non-white immigrants come in, when will they win anything ? They can't even leaad the opposition.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
In 1933 the NSDAP actually did best in the east of what was then Germany, although a lot of that territory now lies within different borders.
That's a terrible result for Merkel and for the SPD. Merkel has lost a huge amount of authority.
The AfD result shows Germany joining much of the rest of northern Europe in having a relatively small, but not insignificant, far-right.
But Merkel, wow, that's very, very bad for her. Presumably it's coalition with the FPD. Can't see the SPD going into government again.
The thing I like about Southam's posts is that he doesn't let his preferences distort his analysis. Merkel may have "won" but she is clearly weaker than expected.
Surprised to see some think this is a bad result for Merkel. The 32-33% she seems to have got is similar to 2005 (35%) and 2009 (34%).
Aside from doing very well last time - that's remarkable consistency for 12 years.
Not a surprise though that others wish to view German politics solely through the prism of immigration.
32% would be the lowest voteshare for the CDU/CSU since WW2, the SPD also would poll their lowest score since 1945 on the exit poll
Poor old Mutti, what a shame...
Merkel speaking now says 'the CDU would have hoped for a better result but have achieved strategic objectives of election campaign and will form the next government'
Mr. 1000, that is significant but it's worth noting Germany's a patchwork of areas with regional capitals and wealth is naturally more spread out. The UK/England has had a single capital and a centralised nation-state for the best part of a thousand years.
Surprised to see some think this is a bad result for Merkel. The 32-33% she seems to have got is similar to 2005 (35%) and 2009 (34%).
Aside from doing very well last time - that's remarkable consistency for 12 years.
Not a surprise though that others wish to view German politics solely through the prism of immigration.
32% would be the lowest voteshare for the CDU/CSU since WW2, the SPD also would poll their lowest score since 1945 on the exit poll
Poor old Mutti, what a shame...
Merkel speaking now says 'the CDU would have hoped for a better result but have achieved strategic objectives of election campaign and will form the next government'
Christian Lindner (FDP) has supposedly said no to a coalition
In which case, WTF do you get a government from?
You don't, unless the SPD change their minds. Could mean CDU/CSU minority (has that ever happened before?) Could mean a second election....
Second elections look possible in light of the last few minutes. Utter disaster for us. Could easily be the end of Merkel and the election of a full-blooded federalist who thinks those who oppose the EU should be punished by death.
WTO exit in 18 months now about 1-3.
Eh? A Eurosceptic, anti immigration party has just got higher in Germany than even UKIP got in the UK and the CDU/CSU is likely to force Merkel to shift right and toughen her line on immigration and you are saying this is going to lead to the election of a full-blooded federalist? Even the FDP is at loggerheads with Macron and the ultra EU Federalist Schulz got trounced
Surprised to see some think this is a bad result for Merkel. The 32-33% she seems to have got is similar to 2005 (35%) and 2009 (34%).
Aside from doing very well last time - that's remarkable consistency for 12 years.
Not a surprise though that others wish to view German politics solely through the prism of immigration.
32% would be the lowest voteshare for the CDU/CSU since WW2, the SPD also would poll their lowest score since 1945 on the exit poll
Poor old Mutti, what a shame...
Merkel speaking now says 'the CDU would have hoped for a better result but have achieved strategic objectives of election campaign and will form the next government'
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
Did East Germans ever go through the deep soul searching that the West went through in terms of Nazism. My guess is that the Communist regime did not require its citizens to confront personal guilt and complicity in the way it happened in West Germany. If I am right, there may be less stugma attached to voting AfD in eastern states.
Christian Lindner (FDP) has supposedly said no to a coalition
In which case, WTF do you get a government from?
You don't, unless the SPD change their minds. Could mean CDU/CSU minority (has that ever happened before?) Could mean a second election....
Second elections look possible in light of the last few minutes. Utter disaster for us. Could easily be the end of Merkel and the election of a full-blooded federalist who thinks those who oppose the EU should be punished by death.
WTO exit in 18 months now about 1-3.
That's an odd interpretation. The FDP are pro-EU and I assume most of their gains came from the CDU, but the Greens are not particularly passionate about it. Nobody is really in doubt that Merkel will carry on - either with a Jamaica coalition or a minority government. And early new elections would be very un-German and it's hard to see why they'd want them.
Surprised to see some think this is a bad result for Merkel. The 32-33% she seems to have got is similar to 2005 (35%) and 2009 (34%).
Aside from doing very well last time - that's remarkable consistency for 12 years.
Not a surprise though that others wish to view German politics solely through the prism of immigration.
32.5% would be the lowest voteshare for the CDU/CSU since 1949, the SPD also would poll their lowest score since WW2 on the exit poll
So ? Your favourite party will still b eignored. If they can get only 13% after 1m non-white immigrants come in, when will they win anything ? They can't even leaad the opposition.
I would not vote for the AfD, I would vote for the CDU if I was German. However the fact the AfD got a better result than any party right of the CDU has done since WW2 and came third and did even better than UKIP did over here in 2015 is significant
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
Did East Germans ever go through the deep soul searching that the West went through in terms of Nazism. My guess is that the Communist regime did not require its citizens to confront personal guilt and complicity in the way it happened in West Germany. If I am right, there may be less stugma attached to voting AfD in eastern states.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
Did East Germans ever go through the deep soul searching that the West went through in terms of Nazism. My guess is that the Communist regime did not require its citizens to confront personal guilt and complicity in the way it happened in West Germany. If I am right, there may be less stugma attached to voting AfD in eastern states.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
Did East Germans ever go through the deep soul searching that the West went through in terms of Nazism. My guess is that the Communist regime did not require its citizens to confront personal guilt and complicity in the way it happened in West Germany. If I am right, there may be less stugma attached to voting AfD in eastern states.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
Did East Germans ever go through the deep soul searching that the West went through in terms of Nazism. My guess is that the Communist regime did not require its citizens to confront personal guilt and complicity in the way it happened in West Germany. If I am right, there may be less stugma attached to voting AfD in eastern states.
I should think most people who were ruled by Communists would see themselves as victims of WWII, rather than as people who have any soul-searching to do.
There's a Brexit debate anyway tomorrow. The question was whether to have a second one as well.
Ok, in fairness that puts a bit of a different light on it.
But no motion to vote on is my understanding.
Yes - the proposal was essentially to force the issue of whether we should be for a single market or not. The leadership wants to say "It depends" and keep options open depending on how the talks go; so they didn't want a vote at this stage. Chuka Umunna is the leader of the "commit now" wing, Keir Starmer's position, which he's sold to the leadership, is "for a while, then let's see".
Purely in tactical terms I don't think Labour has much to gain by endorsing one negotiating position as the only acceptable answer, since it won't actually change what happens. If we were in the talks it'd be different, but as things stand it's better to keep options open.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
Did East Germans ever go through the deep soul searching that the West went through in terms of Nazism. My guess is that the Communist regime did not require its citizens to confront personal guilt and complicity in the way it happened in West Germany. If I am right, there may be less stugma attached to voting AfD in eastern states.
Or people are generally poorer in the east, earn less and are more likely to be impacted adversely by mass migration? Isn't it more class than geography?
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
Did East Germans ever go through the deep soul searching that the West went through in terms of Nazism. My guess is that the Communist regime did not require its citizens to confront personal guilt and complicity in the way it happened in West Germany. If I am right, there may be less stugma attached to voting AfD in eastern states.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
Did East Germans ever go through the deep soul searching that the West went through in terms of Nazism. My guess is that the Communist regime did not require its citizens to confront personal guilt and complicity in the way it happened in West Germany. If I am right, there may be less stugma attached to voting AfD in eastern states.
I should think most people who were ruled by Communists would see themselves as victims of WWII, rather than as people who have any soul-searching to do.
Fascinating that the SPD have only come out on top three times since the war
The CDU have only averaged 35% under Merkel. She's not a good vote-getter.
Perhaps she should phone Theresa to find out how to average over 40%? LOL!!
Easy - change the voting system.
Merkel got 41% last time on the same voting system, her highest ever voteshare, she got 32.5% this time as the AfD got 13%. May got 42% with UKIP getting 1.8%
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
Did East Germans ever go through the deep soul searching that the West went through in terms of Nazism. My guess is that the Communist regime did not require its citizens to confront personal guilt and complicity in the way it happened in West Germany. If I am right, there may be less stugma attached to voting AfD in eastern states.
Good question. At least one former Nazi, a doctor who worked in the death camps, practiced medicine openly under his own name until 1965 when he was arrested to show the DDR were doing something. Name of Horst Fischer:
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
Did East Germans ever go through the deep soul searching that the West went through in terms of Nazism. My guess is that the Communist regime did not require its citizens to confront personal guilt and complicity in the way it happened in West Germany. If I am right, there may be less stugma attached to voting AfD in eastern states.
Austria didnt go through it either
Good point. Same in many eastern European countries where there was a lot of collusion with the Nazis: Hungary, for example.
Christian Lindner (FDP) has supposedly said no to a coalition
In which case, WTF do you get a government from?
You don't, unless the SPD change their minds. Could mean CDU/CSU minority (has that ever happened before?) Could mean a second election....
Second elections look possible in light of the last few minutes. Utter disaster for us. Could easily be the end of Merkel and the election of a full-blooded federalist who thinks those who oppose the EU should be punished by death.
WTO exit in 18 months now about 1-3.
Eh? A Eurosceptic, anti immigration party has just got higher in Germany than even UKIP got in the UK and the CDU/CSU is likely to force Merkel to shift right and toughen her line on immigration and you are saying this is going to lead to the election of a full-blooded federalist? Even the FDP is at loggerheads with Macron and the ultra EU Federalist Schulz got trounced
Yes. Has it occurred to you it may counterintuitively push the CDU to the left and lead them to elect a federalist? They will still form the next government but if Merkel is forced to concede a new election she won't be leading it.
A bit of good news. The biggest losses were in Bavaria. So it hit the CSU.
That's like saying that the 2015 labour result wasn't a disaster because SLAB were the biggest losers. It was.
Surely the better analogy would be 2017. It wasn't such a disaster for Labour because the Tories only hung on because they nicked seats off of the SNP.
There's a Brexit debate anyway tomorrow. The question was whether to have a second one as well.
Ok, in fairness that puts a bit of a different light on it.
But no motion to vote on is my understanding.
Yes - the proposal was essentially to force the issue of whether we should be for a single market or not. The leadership wants to say "It depends" and keep options open depending on how the talks go; so they didn't want a vote at this stage. Chuka Umunna is the leader of the "commit now" wing, Keir Starmer's position, which he's sold to the leadership, is "for a while, then let's see".
Purely in tactical terms I don't think Labour has much to gain by endorsing one negotiating position as the only acceptable answer, since it won't actually change what happens. If we were in the talks it'd be different, but as things stand it's better to keep options open.
Just loving the new, member-driven, definitely not top-down Labour party. So refreshing after the micromanaging and triangulation of the Blairites. :-D
A bit of good news. The biggest losses were in Bavaria. So it hit the CSU.
That's like saying that the 2015 labour result wasn't a disaster because SLAB were the biggest losers. It was.
So you are happy with the AfD ?
Not particularly. When they were an anti Euro party I could live with it, but they've gone full on Nazi by the looks of things. It's not a road that I hope Germany continues down. Hopefully it will be a wake up call for Mutti and the CDU will move to the right to win back their voters from AfD.
It does not matter where in Germany the AfD got their votes. The fact is, they got them.
And as usual some idiots in this part of the world who get something they don't like start throwing terms around like fascists or nazis or whatever. Just like with Brexit where they spent their time screaming such rhetoric and that everyone would be down the poor house. It made no difference then and won't now.
Ipso facto, its a brainless response to come out with it again.
Christian Lindner (FDP) has supposedly said no to a coalition
In which case, WTF do you get a government from?
You don't, unless the SPD change their minds. Could mean CDU/CSU minority (has that ever happened before?) Could mean a second election....
Second elections look possible in light of the last few minutes. Utter disaster for us. Could easily be the end of Merkel and the election of a full-blooded federalist who thinks those who oppose the EU should be punished by death.
WTO exit in 18 months now about 1-3.
Eh? A Eurosceptic, anti immigration party has just got higher in Germany than even UKIP got in the UK and the CDU/CSU is likely to force Merkel to shift right and toughen her line on immigration and you are saying this is going to lead to the election of a full-blooded federalist? Even the FDP is at loggerheads with Macron and the ultra EU Federalist Schulz got trounced
Yes. Has it occurred to you it may counterintuitively push the CDU to the left and lead them to elect a federalist? They will still form the next government but if Merkel is forced to concede a new election she won't be leading it.
Then the CDU will continue to leak votes to AfD. They must move to the right and defend that flank. Otherwise they will lose a war of attrition as AfD are able to take up a more mainstream right wing position like the SVP in Switzerland (a party that has completely displaced the CDU equivalent) and bring in significantly more right wing voters from the CDU.
This is close to a disaster that Germany could have at this election.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
Did East Germans ever go through the deep soul searching that the West went through in terms of Nazism. My guess is that the Communist regime did not require its citizens to confront personal guilt and complicity in the way it happened in West Germany. If I am right, there may be less stugma attached to voting AfD in eastern states.
Or people are generally poorer in the east, earn less and are more likely to be impacted adversely by mass migration? Isn't it more class than geography?
Christian Lindner (FDP) has supposedly said no to a coalition
In which case, WTF do you get a government from?
You don't, unless the SPD change their minds. Could mean CDU/CSU minority (has that ever happened before?) Could mean a second election....
Second elections look possible in light of the last few minutes. Utter disaster for us. Could easily be the end of Merkel and the election of a full-blooded federalist who thinks those who oppose the EU should be punished by death.
WTO exit in 18 months now about 1-3.
Eh? A Eurosceptic, anti immigration party has just got higher in Germany than even UKIP got in the UK and the CDU/CSU is likely to force Merkel to shift right and toughen her line on immigration and you are saying this is going to lead to the election of a full-blooded federalist? Even the FDP is at loggerheads with Macron and the ultra EU Federalist Schulz got trounced
Yes. Has it occurred to you it may counterintuitively push the CDU to the left and lead them to elect a federalist? They will still form the next government but if Merkel is forced to concede a new election she won't be leading it.
There is zero chance of the CDU moving to the left and giving the AfD an open goal, if Merkel is replaced as CDU leader it will be by someone more conservative
So after Brexit, Trump, Macron, our general election, and now this German election, is there any political pundit left who is worth listening to? Because as far as I can tell most of what they have predicted over the last year or so has been flat out wrong.
Hm, if AfD are ultra right, I'm wondering if there is any superlative left to describe actual Nazis?
I too am rather tired of the overuse of the term 'far right' or 'ultra right.'
These parties are right-wing, reactionary and populist. Despite occasionally flirting with the language and tone of some historic far-right groups, they are not nearly as extreme.
It doesn't make them the good guys in any sense, but some proportion and perspective wouldn't go amiss.
Christian Lindner (FDP) has supposedly said no to a coalition
In which case, WTF do you get a government from?
You don't, unless the SPD change their minds. Could mean CDU/CSU minority (has that ever happened before?) Could mean a second election....
Second elections look possible in light of the last few minutes. Utter disaster for us. Could easily be the end of Merkel and the election of a full-blooded federalist who thinks those who oppose the EU should be punished by death.
WTO exit in 18 months now about 1-3.
Eh? A Eurosceptic, anti immigration party has just got higher in Germany than even UKIP got in the UK and the CDU/CSU is likely to force Merkel to shift right and toughen her line on immigration and you are saying this is going to lead to the election of a full-blooded federalist? Even the FDP is at loggerheads with Macron and the ultra EU Federalist Schulz got trounced
Yes. Has it occurred to you it may counterintuitively push the CDU to the left and lead them to elect a federalist? They will still form the next government but if Merkel is forced to concede a new election she won't be leading it.
There is zero chance of the CDU moving to the left and giving the AfD an open goal, if Merkel is replaced as CDU leader it will be by someone more conservative
We shall see. Remember, you are assuming they will act rationally. I think after this they may retreat to where hey feel comfortable rather than where they need to be.
Edit - and remember, there was zero chance of Corbyn being elected Labour leader, or of him surviving the election...
#1 We need Mutti #2 She doesn't particularly deserve it. 12+ years is too long for anyone and suspending Dublin in this circumstances was the sort of Statecraft/catastrophe* you do to n your final term. If the germs manage to pull off a result that simultaneously keeps a mainstream government in place ( Jamaica led by Mutti for a couple of years ) yet still signifies change ( SPD as proper opposition and Merkel not going full term ) that's a real ' Wisdom of Crowds ' success.
We need to wait for hard number but if the Germans have pulled of a controlled explosion which gives something to both the Change Vs Stability sides of things we shouldn't grumble.
A bit of good news. The biggest losses were in Bavaria. So it hit the CSU.
That's like saying that the 2015 labour result wasn't a disaster because SLAB were the biggest losers. It was.
So you are happy with the AfD ?
Not particularly. When they were an anti Euro party I could live with it, but they've gone full on Nazi by the looks of things. It's not a road that I hope Germany continues down. Hopefully it will be a wake up call for Mutti and the CDU will move to the right to win back their voters from AfD.
Hardly Nazi. Of Europe's populist right wing parties, I think that really only describes Jobbik and Golden Dawn.
Hm, if AfD are ultra right, I'm wondering if there is any superlative left to describe actual Nazis?
I too am rather tired of the overuse of the term 'far right' or 'ultra right.'
These parties are right-wing, reactionary and populist. Despite occasionally flirting with the language and tone of some historic far-right groups, they are not nearly as extreme.
It doesn't make them the good guys in any sense, but some proportion and perspective wouldn't go amiss.
Yeah. It is so overused that it is becoming devoid of meaning.
Given the CSU debacle, could it be there might a first German minority government with our "confidence and supply" ?
I doubt it. CDU+FDP+Green with the CSU will already have difficulty in governing, take out a chunk of CSU from their ranks and it will become impossible. The solution is to dump Merkel, shift to the right and defend against AfD by kicking out Merkel's migrants and toughening up migration law in general. Otherwise they will be supplanted like the FDP were I'm Switzerland by the SVP.
A bit of good news. The biggest losses were in Bavaria. So it hit the CSU.
That's like saying that the 2015 labour result wasn't a disaster because SLAB were the biggest losers. It was.
So you are happy with the AfD ?
Not particularly. When they were an anti Euro party I could live with it, but they've gone full on Nazi by the looks of things. It's not a road that I hope Germany continues down. Hopefully it will be a wake up call for Mutti and the CDU will move to the right to win back their voters from AfD.
Hardly Nazi. Of Europe's populist right wing parties, I think that really only describes Jobbik and Golden Dawn.
Some of their stances aren't that different and they have quite a few ex-Nazi members. I'd put them closer to the EDL/BNP than UKIP, for example. I wouldn't be happy going to Germany with AfD in charge.
Christian Lindner (FDP) has supposedly said no to a coalition
In which case, WTF do you get a government from?
You don't, unless the SPD change their minds. Could mean CDU/CSU minority (has that ever happened before?) Could mean a second election....
Second elections look possible in light of the last few minutes. Utter disaster for us. Could easily be the end of Merkel and the election of a full-blooded federalist who thinks those who oppose the EU should be punished by death.
WTO exit in 18 months now about 1-3.
Eh? A Eurosceptic, anti immigration party has just got higher in Germany than even UKIP got in the UK and the CDU/CSU is likely to force Merkel to shift right and toughen her line on immigration and you are saying this is going to lead to the election of a full-blooded federalist? Even the FDP is at loggerheads with Macron and the ultra EU Federalist Schulz got trounced
Yes. Has it occurred to you it may counterintuitively push the CDU to the left and lead them to elect a federalist? They will still form the next government but if Merkel is forced to concede a new election she won't be leading it.
There is zero chance of the CDU moving to the left and giving the AfD an open goal, if Merkel is replaced as CDU leader it will be by someone more conservative
We shall see. Remember, you are assuming they will act rationally. I think after this they may retreat to where hey feel comfortable rather than where they need to be.
Edit - and remember, there was zero chance of Corbyn being elected Labour leader, or of him surviving the election...
Merkel is of course almost as ardent an EU Federalist as Schulz so I fail to see how a big win for her would have helped Brexit?
The main pro Brexit party, the AfD, by contrast did well at the CDU/CSU's expense as did the FDP whose leader is more sympathetic to the City of London and the UK than Merkel is
Surely the CDU/CSU comfort zone would be to move right, after all Corbyn won the leadership by moving Labour left not even more to the centre?
Christian Lindner (FDP) has supposedly said no to a coalition
In which case, WTF do you get a government from?
You don't, unless the SPD change their minds. Could mean CDU/CSU minority (has that ever happened before?) Could mean a second election....
Second elections look possible in light of the last few minutes. Utter disaster for us. Could easily be the end of Merkel and the election of a full-blooded federalist who thinks those who oppose the EU should be punished by death.
WTO exit in 18 months now about 1-3.
Eh? A Eurosceptic, anti immigration party has just got higher in Germany than even UKIP got in the UK and the CDU/CSU is likely to force Merkel to shift right and toughen her line on immigration and you are saying this is going to lead to the election of a full-blooded federalist? Even the FDP is at loggerheads with Macron and the ultra EU Federalist Schulz got trounced
Yes. Has it occurred to you it may counterintuitively push the CDU to the left and lead them to elect a federalist? They will still form the next government but if Merkel is forced to concede a new election she won't be leading it.
There is zero chance of the CDU moving to the left and giving the AfD an open goal, if Merkel is replaced as CDU leader it will be by someone more conservative
We shall see. Remember, you are assuming they will act rationally. I think after this they may retreat to where hey feel comfortable rather than where they need to be.
Edit - and remember, there was zero chance of Corbyn being elected Labour leader, or of him surviving the election...
If anything the CSU will seek to push the CDU rightwards. Presumably there'll be some kind of low key succession battle over the next few years. My guess is that in terms of EU policy not much will change in Germany.
Comments
Lots of prominent Nazis came from Bavaria and Austria, but Catholic political parties were dominant in Bavaria (till 1933) and Austria (till 1938). Their voters tended to be Nationalist and authoritarian, but were strongly supportive of their Church, which the Nazis detested.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/911993193486602240
The biggest head to roll however may well be Wolfgang Schauble, a seriously big figure, because the FDP will want his job.
hows labour doing on that score ?
Purely in tactical terms I don't think Labour has much to gain by endorsing one negotiating position as the only acceptable answer, since it won't actually change what happens. If we were in the talks it'd be different, but as things stand it's better to keep options open.
http://www.wollheim-memorial.de/en/vorermittlung_und_verfahrensaufnahme_gegen_dr_horst_fischer
And as usual some idiots in this part of the world who get something they don't like start throwing terms around like fascists or nazis or whatever. Just like with Brexit where they spent their time screaming such rhetoric and that everyone would be down the poor house. It made no difference then and won't now.
Ipso facto, its a brainless response to come out with it again.
This is close to a disaster that Germany could have at this election.
Plunkett took five wickets - bowling himself into Ashes contention perhaps?
These parties are right-wing, reactionary and populist. Despite occasionally flirting with the language and tone of some historic far-right groups, they are not nearly as extreme.
It doesn't make them the good guys in any sense, but some proportion and perspective wouldn't go amiss.
Edit - and remember, there was zero chance of Corbyn being elected Labour leader, or of him surviving the election...
We need to wait for hard number but if the Germans have pulled of a controlled explosion which gives something to both the Change Vs Stability sides of things we shouldn't grumble.
Welcome to PB, btw.
The main pro Brexit party, the AfD, by contrast did well at the CDU/CSU's expense as did the FDP whose leader is more sympathetic to the City of London and the UK than Merkel is
Surely the CDU/CSU comfort zone would be to move right, after all Corbyn won the leadership by moving Labour left not even more to the centre?
it will be interesting to see how her vote holds up
I want to know which Duchy of Mecklenburg was the splitter!