Very disappointing result for the CDU, considering they were near an absolute majority last time.
Merkel has paid for her mistake.
Merkel is the greatest European leader since the war.
She has allowed the radical right back into German politics. I can't understand German, but watching the Deutsche Welle coverage they had the CDU minister president of Saarland saying the word 'national socialism'.
So after what was going to be this supposedly great election result for Merkel she ends up polling almost 10% less than May did in her supposedly terrible general election result in June!
12% more than Le Pen. Have you received the French results yet ? Merkel's share is very much like 2009.
SPD choosing opposition means the horrible AfD will not be the largest opposition party,
Very disappointing result for the CDU, considering they were near an absolute majority last time.
Merkel has paid for her mistake.
Merkel is the greatest European leader since the war.
She has allowed the radical right back into German politics. I can't understand German, but watching the Deutsche Welle coverage they had the CDU minister president of Saarland saying the word 'national socialism'.
Merkel is a disaster.
There will be a lot of rumblings amongst more conservative elements within the CDU I imagine about Merkel's immigration policy, if the AfD do indeed get 13% that would be even more than UKIP got over here at the 2015 general election when Cameron got 37% to Merkel's 33% today
So after what was going to be this supposedly great election result for Merkel she ends up polling almost 10% less than May did in her supposedly terrible general election result in June!
I mean, to be fair to her, it's her fourth plurality of votes on the trot. One of the key things in German politics is a recognition that no-one comes close at offering an alternative for the national leadership.
But still, it is a poor result for her all things considered.
Very disappointing result for the CDU, considering they were near an absolute majority last time.
Merkel has paid for her mistake.
Merkel is the greatest European leader since the war.
Her tenure has overlapped with the emergence of Germany as the political leader of Europe. Some of that is down to her, a lot is down to the circumstances of French malaise, British withdrawal, reunification and the memories of WWII receding.
So after what was going to be this supposedly great election result for Merkel she ends up polling almost 10% less than May did in her supposedly terrible general election result in June!
Different electoral systems. Both did much worse than expected. At a personal level, Merkel has lost authority, May effectively lost power.
So after what was going to be this supposedly great election result for Merkel she ends up polling almost 10% less than May did in her supposedly terrible general election result in June!
At the risk of stating the obvious, Merkel is in a PR system which encourages multi-party voting whereas May is in FPTP which encourages a two-party system. And Merkel is coming off 3 wins in a row and a decade plus of government.
Mr. Twelve, she's also presided over and encouraged a disastrous migration crisis which continues to have ramifications, such as increased terrorism and the return of the far right to Germany.
So after what was going to be this supposedly great election result for Merkel she ends up polling almost 10% less than May did in her supposedly terrible general election result in June!
At the risk of stating the obvious, Merkel is in a PR system which encourages multi-party voting whereas May is in FPTP which encourages a two-party system. And Merkel is coming off 3 wins in a row and a decade plus of government.
Yes but she got 41% last time it was her immigration policy which saw such a big shift of voters from the CDU/CSU to the AfD this time
Not au fait with German politics, but that looks higher than anticipated for AfD.
The AfD did better than the polls in all the regional (Laander) elections, so it shouldn't be too surprising. It also looks like a fair amount of CDU/CSU support went for the FDP in the final days of the poll.
The left wing coalition, SPD + Linke + Green, is well short of a majority. The right wing one of CDU/CSU + FPD is equally far away.
I think it unlikely that the SPD will go into government with the CDU/CSU again. Which means there are two other likely coalitions:
Jamaica: CDU/CSU + FDP + Green HYUFD: CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD
My money is on the former, and I would expect it to be announced inside a week.
So after what was going to be this supposedly great election result for Merkel she ends up polling almost 10% less than May did in her supposedly terrible general election result in June!
Different electoral systems. Both did much worse than expected. At a personal level, Merkel has lost authority, May effectively lost power.
Agreed. Plus, Merkel has been in power for twelve years now, and this will be her fourth term. This is probably going against the consensus on here, but it's an achievement in of itself to be able to win a fourth term and get back into government after being leader for so long. By contrast, TMay had been in power for less than a year before she faced her 'backlash.'
Still, it's very unfortunate that the far right is too emerging in Germany. Will hopefully signal to some that this anti-immigration sentiment is not only an issue in this country. Some commentators after Brexit sure seemed to think this was the case. You had people acting as if France was some kind of pargon of virtue in comparison to this country when a far-right party got 30%+ of the vote FGS. At least we avoided that kind of mess in June this year.
So after what was going to be this supposedly great election result for Merkel she ends up polling almost 10% less than May did in her supposedly terrible general election result in June!
12% more than Le Pen. Have you received the French results yet ? Merkel's share is very much like 2009.
SPD choosing opposition means the horrible AfD will not be the largest opposition party,
12% (actually 11%) more than MLP got in the first round. Slightly less than she got in the second.
Not au fait with German politics, but that looks higher than anticipated for AfD.
The AfD did better than the polls in all the regional (Laander) elections, so it shouldn't be too surprising. It also looks like a fair amount of CDU/CSU support went for the FDP in the final days of the poll.
The left wing coalition, SPD + Linke + Green, is well short of a majority. The right wing one of CDU/CSU + FPD is equally far away.
I think it unlikely that the SPD will go into government with the CDU/CSU again. Which means there are two other likely coalitions:
Jamaica: CDU/CSU + FDP + Green HYUFD: CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD
My money is on the former, and I would expect it to be announced inside a week.
How would the latter work? Merkel - "Germany can do this" vs AFD love of 'volk' and 'fatherland'
Not au fait with German politics, but that looks higher than anticipated for AfD.
The AfD did better than the polls in all the regional (Laander) elections, so it shouldn't be too surprising. It also looks like a fair amount of CDU/CSU support went for the FDP in the final days of the poll.
The left wing coalition, SPD + Linke + Green, is well short of a majority. The right wing one of CDU/CSU + FPD is equally far away.
I think it unlikely that the SPD will go into government with the CDU/CSU again. Which means there are two other likely coalitions:
Jamaica: CDU/CSU + FDP + Green HYUFD: CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD
My money is on the former, and I would expect it to be announced inside a week.
How would the latter work? Merkel - "Germany can do this" vs AFD love of 'volk' and 'fatherland'
There is exactly one person proposing the latter (HYUFD), on the basis that the CSU would prefer a coalition with the AfD than with the Greens.
Not au fait with German politics, but that looks higher than anticipated for AfD.
The AfD did better than the polls in all the regional (Laander) elections, so it shouldn't be too surprising. It also looks like a fair amount of CDU/CSU support went for the FDP in the final days of the poll.
The left wing coalition, SPD + Linke + Green, is well short of a majority. The right wing one of CDU/CSU + FPD is equally far away.
I think it unlikely that the SPD will go into government with the CDU/CSU again. Which means there are two other likely coalitions:
Jamaica: CDU/CSU + FDP + Green HYUFD: CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD
My money is on the former, and I would expect it to be announced inside a week.
Of course , in the past the FPD went into coalition with the SPD headed by Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt!
Will the Greens wish to enter a Coalition with Merkel and the FDP? Were they to do so they would surely risk losing support to the SPD and Die Linke.
Ahh the merry-go-round of European politics. Minor parties balancing a whiff of power once in a while vs the good chance of voter backlash at the next election. The Lib Dems on steroids.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
We can bring back a nice metric from Weimar; the % of voters opting for Republican and anti-Republican parties.
The evidence from the continent seems to be that drawing populists into power (Finland, Denmark) is a better way of reducing their support than exclusion (Sweden). Unfortunately Germany will opt for the latter approach.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
Not au fait with German politics, but that looks higher than anticipated for AfD.
The AfD did better than the polls in all the regional (Laander) elections, so it shouldn't be too surprising. It also looks like a fair amount of CDU/CSU support went for the FDP in the final days of the poll.
The left wing coalition, SPD + Linke + Green, is well short of a majority. The right wing one of CDU/CSU + FPD is equally far away.
I think it unlikely that the SPD will go into government with the CDU/CSU again. Which means there are two other likely coalitions:
Jamaica: CDU/CSU + FDP + Green HYUFD: CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD
My money is on the former, and I would expect it to be announced inside a week.
Of course , in the past the FPD went into coalition with the SPD headed by Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt!
Sure, and if SPD + FDP + Green was above 50%, it would be a possibility. But the FDP are not going to get in bed with Linke, so I can't see how a left of centre coalition would work.
Pretty much the only option that makes mathematical sense is CDU/CSU + FDP + Green.
Not au fait with German politics, but that looks higher than anticipated for AfD.
The AfD did better than the polls in all the regional (Laander) elections, so it shouldn't be too surprising. It also looks like a fair amount of CDU/CSU support went for the FDP in the final days of the poll.
The left wing coalition, SPD + Linke + Green, is well short of a majority. The right wing one of CDU/CSU + FPD is equally far away.
I think it unlikely that the SPD will go into government with the CDU/CSU again. Which means there are two other likely coalitions:
Jamaica: CDU/CSU + FDP + Green HYUFD: CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD
My money is on the former, and I would expect it to be announced inside a week.
How would the latter work? Merkel - "Germany can do this" vs AFD love of 'volk' and 'fatherland'
There is exactly one person proposing the latter (HYUFD), on the basis that the CSU would prefer a coalition with the AfD than with the Greens.
I don't believe he is correct.
I did not actually say that, what I said was the CSU would prefer a minority government if the AfD were third (as they are) than do a coalition with the Greens.
There are also big differences between the FDP and the Greens on environmental regulations, taxing business etc and there were some pretty bitter rows between their spokespeople in the campaign, I cannot see them as happy bedfellows either
Schulz says concerning for the first time a far right party will enter the Bundestag and a gesture 'of humanity' has been misprepresented and not enough has been done to challenge it
Not au fait with German politics, but that looks higher than anticipated for AfD.
The AfD did better than the polls in all the regional (Laander) elections, so it shouldn't be too surprising. It also looks like a fair amount of CDU/CSU support went for the FDP in the final days of the poll.
The left wing coalition, SPD + Linke + Green, is well short of a majority. The right wing one of CDU/CSU + FPD is equally far away.
I think it unlikely that the SPD will go into government with the CDU/CSU again. Which means there are two other likely coalitions:
Jamaica: CDU/CSU + FDP + Green HYUFD: CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD
My money is on the former, and I would expect it to be announced inside a week.
How would the latter work? Merkel - "Germany can do this" vs AFD love of 'volk' and 'fatherland'
There is exactly one person proposing the latter (HYUFD), on the basis that the CSU would prefer a coalition with the AfD than with the Greens.
I don't believe he is correct.
I think a lot of the CSU would be happy enough to form a Coalition with AFD, but the CDU wouldn't. And Merkel always prefers to make concessions to the Left, rather than the Right.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
What's amazing, though, is how (under Merkel in particular) the income difference between East and West Germany has shrunk. The gap between East German Laander and West German is smaller now than between poorer and richer parts of the UK, which is staggering.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
We can bring back a nice metric from Weimar; the % of voters opting for Republican and anti-Republican parties.
The evidence from the continent seems to be that drawing populists into power (Finland, Denmark) is a better way of reducing their support than exclusion (Sweden). Unfortunately Germany will opt for the latter approach.
There's nothing better at reducing any party's vote share than being in coalition with Mrs Merkel.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
Well we'll have to wait and see, but 12 years of the Nazis followed by 45 years of effective Soviet occupation all while being in a prison camp surrounded by wire is a lot to recover from. It'll probably take decades yet.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
More accurately, those parts of Germany which were most keen on national socialism are now part of Poland!
And Merkel always prefers to make concessions to the Left, rather than the Right.
She got a big shock in the her first run for the Chancellorship when Schroeder almost overhauled a big lead by attacking her over support for a flat tax. As this will be her last term, you might be surprised how radical she will be.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
We can bring back a nice metric from Weimar; the % of voters opting for Republican and anti-Republican parties.
The evidence from the continent seems to be that drawing populists into power (Finland, Denmark) is a better way of reducing their support than exclusion (Sweden). Unfortunately Germany will opt for the latter approach.
There's nothing better at reducing any party's vote share than being in coalition with Mrs Merkel.
Not au fait with German politics, but that looks higher than anticipated for AfD.
The AfD did better than the polls in all the regional (Laander) elections, so it shouldn't be too surprising. It also looks like a fair amount of CDU/CSU support went for the FDP in the final days of the poll.
The left wing coalition, SPD + Linke + Green, is well short of a majority. The right wing one of CDU/CSU + FPD is equally far away.
I think it unlikely that the SPD will go into government with the CDU/CSU again. Which means there are two other likely coalitions:
Jamaica: CDU/CSU + FDP + Green HYUFD: CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD
My money is on the former, and I would expect it to be announced inside a week.
How would the latter work? Merkel - "Germany can do this" vs AFD love of 'volk' and 'fatherland'
There is exactly one person proposing the latter (HYUFD), on the basis that the CSU would prefer a coalition with the AfD than with the Greens.
I don't believe he is correct.
I think a lot of the CSU would be happy enough to form a Coalition with AFD, but the CDU wouldn't. And Merkel always prefers to make concessions to the Left, rather than the Right.
I think while that's true of the "old" (pro-business, Eurosceptic) AfD, I think it's much less true of the new (anti-business, anti-immigration) AfD. But that's just my hunch. And while the old AfD and the FDP were very close on a lot of things. The new AfD and the FDP are a million miles apart on almost everything.
For any of you actually interested in betting (I know, so retro of me, how do I cope... ) Ladbrkes have not got a market up and oddschecker isn't giving anything, but betfair does have a german market up. It's here: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128390571
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
What's amazing, though, is how (under Merkel in particular) the income difference between East and West Germany has shrunk. The gap between East German Laander and West German is smaller now than between poorer and richer parts of the UK, which is staggering.
Wow, thanks for that bit of info that's really amazing. So it's not economic anxiety that's the causing Germans in Eastern Germany to vote for these parties then....
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Wow - I always under the impression that it was Southern Germany that was the bedrock of Nazi support. I wonder why East Germany has had these issues with the extreme for so long?
Christian Lindner (FDP) has supposedly said no to a coalition
In which case, WTF do you get a government from?
You don't, unless the SPD change their minds. Could mean CDU/CSU minority (has that ever happened before?) Could mean a second election....
Second elections look possible in light of the last few minutes. Utter disaster for us. Could easily be the end of Merkel and the election of a full-blooded federalist who thinks those who oppose the EU should be punished by death.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
We can bring back a nice metric from Weimar; the % of voters opting for Republican and anti-Republican parties.
The evidence from the continent seems to be that drawing populists into power (Finland, Denmark) is a better way of reducing their support than exclusion (Sweden). Unfortunately Germany will opt for the latter approach.
There's nothing better at reducing any party's vote share than being in coalition with Mrs Merkel.
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
Don't think so - the bedrock of Nazi support was Bavaria (now CSU territory), and they initially had problems in the East as part of Berlin had a very strong left-wing tradition and the traditional rural Junckers saw the Nazis as vulgar upstarts.
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
So 22% in Germany have voted for a bunch of ex communists or the extreme right?
Hmm.
I wonder how much of those who voted for the extreme left and the extreme right are in East Germany. That part of Germany seems hold politically problematic beliefs in comparison with Western part of Germany.
As it always has. It was the bedrock of Nazi support, so pre-dates Communism.
More accurately, those parts of Germany which were most keen on national socialism are now part of Poland!
Comments
Merkel is a disaster.
The AfD result shows Germany joining much of the rest of northern Europe in having a relatively small, but not insignificant, far-right.
But Merkel, wow, that's very, very bad for her. Presumably it's coalition with the FPD. Can't see the SPD going into government again.
I think the system used (mixes member PR) normally still gives a slight boost to the largest parts. (it looks like it did at the last election)
so a CDS/CSU + FDP collation might still be possible
SPD choosing opposition means the horrible AfD will not be the largest opposition party,
Merkels immigration strategy going well I see.
But still, it is a poor result for her all things considered.
political commentators talking to themselves and ignoring whats happening with the voters
CSU having nightmare
The left wing coalition, SPD + Linke + Green, is well short of a majority. The right wing one of CDU/CSU + FPD is equally far away.
I think it unlikely that the SPD will go into government with the CDU/CSU again. Which means there are two other likely coalitions:
Jamaica: CDU/CSU + FDP + Green
HYUFD: CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD
My money is on the former, and I would expect it to be announced inside a week.
Still, it's very unfortunate that the far right is too emerging in Germany. Will hopefully signal to some that this anti-immigration sentiment is not only an issue in this country. Some commentators after Brexit sure seemed to think this was the case. You had people acting as if France was some kind of pargon of virtue in comparison to this country when a far-right party got 30%+ of the vote FGS. At least we avoided that kind of mess in June this year.
I can't imagine they'll want to limit it in any way.
5.30 pm is projections based on actual votes. This will fluctuate throughout the count.
Hmm.
I don't believe he is correct.
The 32-33% she seems to have got is similar to 2005 (35%) and 2009 (34%).
Aside from doing very well last time - that's remarkable consistency for 12 years.
Not a surprise though that others wish to view German politics solely through the prism of immigration.
try france
The evidence from the continent seems to be that drawing populists into power (Finland, Denmark) is a better way of reducing their support than exclusion (Sweden). Unfortunately Germany will opt for the latter approach.
https://twitter.com/ZDF/status/911990007895855107
Pretty much the only option that makes mathematical sense is CDU/CSU + FDP + Green.
There are also big differences between the FDP and the Greens on environmental regulations, taxing business etc and there were some pretty bitter rows between their spokespeople in the campaign, I cannot see them as happy bedfellows either
Schulz says concerning for the first time a far right party will enter the Bundestag and a gesture 'of humanity' has been misprepresented and not enough has been done to challenge it
TL:DR: some bargains, but very low liquidity.
WTO exit in 18 months now about 1-3.
https://twitter.com/MartinSelmayr/status/911994076622462976
But it's certainly true now that the extremes do better there. The Linke do better simply because about a third of East German voters feel that the GDR wasn't that bad and that the ex-communists care more about them than the West-dominated parties; the AfD do better because the area remains economically weaker and feel more eatened by immigration.
The analysis suggests the biggest AfD increase came from people who didn't vote last time - shades of Brexit, followed by a million from the CDU and half a million from SPD and Linke (who in turn picked up some SPD votes).
brilliantmaps.com/nazi-votes/