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  • Support for Scottish independence rebounding and decoupling from SNP support.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/poll-support-for-independence-sees-boost-to-46-1-4562461

    And a pro indepencence majority in the Scottish Parliament disappearing in 2021 election
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning PB,

    Tories at it like ferrets in a sack I see...

    Bring on Jezza? :D

    And Vince Cable on Marr thinks he will be Prime Minister - and no I am not joking
    If trump can be president, Corbyn can be LoO and JRM can be in the running for Tory leader. Vince Cable can be prime minister.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Will £350m a week go to the NHS after Brexit, @BBCsarahsmith asks? Damian Green: "We're some way off from allocating that". So, no #bbcsp
  • Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning PB,

    Tories at it like ferrets in a sack I see...

    Bring on Jezza? :D

    And Vince Cable on Marr thinks he will be Prime Minister - and no I am not joking
    If trump can be president, Corbyn can be LoO and JRM can be in the running for Tory leader. Vince Cable can be prime minister.
    Good point but really
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    Universal credit is an excellent way of tackling the issue of benefits, ensuring that even limited hours does not mean losing all your benefits
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681

    Support for Scottish independence rebounding and decoupling from SNP support.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/poll-support-for-independence-sees-boost-to-46-1-4562461

    So the best Nats can claim is a poll giving 46% Yes, just 1% above what they got in 2014 and still well below what they were getting even a year ago. Pathetic
  • DavidL said:

    I don't think classical free market theory has any problem with the idea that there is a natural tendency towards monopolies. Adam Smith certainly didn't and expected cabals to form which would use monopoly power.

    Where I think traditional economics really struggles is that it assumes a largely closed system in which effects are predictable within that system. It allows for exports and imports but it does not contemplate economies that are as nearly open as those today.

    So, if our government decides to increase spending traditional economics assume that will boost consumption and production. The possibility that that consumption might be met almost entirely by imports with the increase in spending thus dissipated was not contemplated. Keynes talked of a multiplier effect by which £1 spent by government produced several more as those that provided the service for that £1 used services themselves and recycled the profits within the system. This is not where we are.

    Indeed.

    Subsidising wealth consumption, as governments have done for the last decade, has caused the current account deficit to swell to record levels.

    To have a more positive economic effect governments should have subsidised wealth creation or infrastructure investment within the UK.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DavidL said:

    I don't think classical free market theory has any problem with the idea that there is a natural tendency towards monopolies. Adam Smith certainly didn't and expected cabals to form which would use monopoly power.

    Where I think traditional economics really struggles is that it assumes a largely closed system in which effects are predictable within that system. It allows for exports and imports but it does not contemplate economies that are as nearly open as those today.

    So, if our government decides to increase spending traditional economics assume that will boost consumption and production. The possibility that that consumption might be met almost entirely by imports with the increase in spending thus dissipated was not contemplated. Keynes talked of a multiplier effect by which £1 spent by government produced several more as those that provided the service for that £1 used services themselves and recycled the profits within the system. This is not where we are.

    But as far as I remember (and I suppose I ought in a perfect world to go and look at what he actually said) he thought the drive towards cartels/monopolies would be 100% driven by sellers and 100% injurious to buyers. But we love it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    One reason why average wages aren't rising is the increase in low grade service sector jobs:

    ' Ten years ago there were fewer than 10,000 places to buy coffee in the UK and fewer than a third of those belonged to the big chains, such as Starbucks, Nero's and Costa, according to coffee market researchers Allegra.

    By the end of last year there were more than 22,000 coffee shops, and branded outlets had doubled in number. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41251451

    That's also evidence that there is no shortage of spare money.

    The rise of coffee shops parallels the decline in pubs. We are becoming more sober in our habits.
  • One reason why average wages aren't rising is the increase in low grade service sector jobs:

    ' Ten years ago there were fewer than 10,000 places to buy coffee in the UK and fewer than a third of those belonged to the big chains, such as Starbucks, Nero's and Costa, according to coffee market researchers Allegra.

    By the end of last year there were more than 22,000 coffee shops, and branded outlets had doubled in number. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41251451

    That's also evidence that there is no shortage of spare money.

    The rise of coffee shops parallels the decline in pubs. We are becoming more sober in our habits.
    There will also be a gender related financial shift involved.

    Mark-ups in coffee shops will also be significantly higher.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't think classical free market theory has any problem with the idea that there is a natural tendency towards monopolies. Adam Smith certainly didn't and expected cabals to form which would use monopoly power.

    Where I think traditional economics really struggles is that it assumes a largely closed system in which effects are predictable within that system. It allows for exports and imports but it does not contemplate economies that are as nearly open as those today.

    So, if our government decides to increase spending traditional economics assume that will boost consumption and production. The possibility that that consumption might be met almost entirely by imports with the increase in spending thus dissipated was not contemplated. Keynes talked of a multiplier effect by which £1 spent by government produced several more as those that provided the service for that £1 used services themselves and recycled the profits within the system. This is not where we are.

    But as far as I remember (and I suppose I ought in a perfect world to go and look at what he actually said) he thought the drive towards cartels/monopolies would be 100% driven by sellers and 100% injurious to buyers. But we love it.
    http://www.econlib.org/library/Smith/smWN.html
    From book 4

    "By restraining, either by high duties or by absolute prohibitions, the importation of such goods from foreign countries as can be produced at home, the monopoly of the home market is more or less secured to the domestic industry employed in producing them. Thus the prohibition of importing either live cattle*32 or salt provisions from foreign countries secures to the graziers of Great Britain the monopoly of the home market for butcher's meat. The high duties upon the importation of corn,*33 which in times of moderate plenty amount to a prohibition, give a like advantage to the growers of that commodity. The prohibition of the importation of foreign woollens is equally favourable to the woollen manufacturers..."

    Just because we love something does not mean it is not injurious to us.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,218
    edited September 2017
    Dura_Ace said:



    The return of collective bargaining and the closed shop would also drive up incomes if that's what we want...

    For that matter, we could increase incomes simply by adding a zero to all transactions in the UK, so that everything, including labour, that cost £1 now costs £10. However, I think I see a flaw in that as a path to prosperity ...

    That's why I emphasised REAL income growth. Any gains from nominal increases in union power would certainly be inflated away very quickly, as in the 70s.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    edited September 2017
    Opinium has an exact tie between Labour and the Tories in its Observer poll today
    Tories 41%
    Labour 41%
    LD 6%
    https://mobile.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/909362687586525185

  • HYUFD said:

    Universal credit is an excellent way of tackling the issue of benefits, ensuring that even limited hours does not mean losing all your benefits

    I doubt you'll be saying that when the truth dawns on millions that they are set to lose 1,000s of pounds a year.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,402
    Interesting article. Labour economists reckon immigration has virtually no net effect on the number of jobs available to the indigenous population as immigrants grow the economy just enough to pay for their additional job. Logically therefore if immigration is restricted, no jobs will be added as GDP contracts, although there may be a lag. Immigration does, according to the same labour economists, result in the indigenous population having more availability of better paid jobs as immigrants take the lower paying ones. The reverse presumably happens as immigration is restricted.

    On minimum wage. It works as long as employers pay more per hour, but pay for fewer hours to get the same job done. In other words, a higher minimum wage means either there's more unemployment or people just get the same wage but over fewer hours. Unless the economy grows. Which unfortunately it isn't and won't, because of Brexit.
  • Time for me to be off. The pre-race tosh was up later than usual, so if you missed it, here's the link:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/singapore-pre-race.html
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    One reason why average wages aren't rising is the increase in low grade service sector jobs:

    ' Ten years ago there were fewer than 10,000 places to buy coffee in the UK and fewer than a third of those belonged to the big chains, such as Starbucks, Nero's and Costa, according to coffee market researchers Allegra.

    By the end of last year there were more than 22,000 coffee shops, and branded outlets had doubled in number. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41251451

    That's also evidence that there is no shortage of spare money.

    The rise of coffee shops parallels the decline in pubs. We are becoming more sober in our habits.
    There will also be a gender related financial shift involved.

    Mark-ups in coffee shops will also be significantly higher.
    Indeed, but part of that is sofa and table rental.

    Takeaway coffee in a plasticised cup is less justifieable.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't think classical free market theory has any problem with the idea that there is a natural tendency towards monopolies. Adam Smith certainly didn't and expected cabals to form which would use monopoly power.

    Where I think traditional economics really struggles is that it assumes a largely closed system in which effects are predictable within that system. It allows for exports and imports but it does not contemplate economies that are as nearly open as those today.

    So, if our government decides to increase spending traditional economics assume that will boost consumption and production. The possibility that that consumption might be met almost entirely by imports with the increase in spending thus dissipated was not contemplated. Keynes talked of a multiplier effect by which £1 spent by government produced several more as those that provided the service for that £1 used services themselves and recycled the profits within the system. This is not where we are.

    But as far as I remember (and I suppose I ought in a perfect world to go and look at what he actually said) he thought the drive towards cartels/monopolies would be 100% driven by sellers and 100% injurious to buyers. But we love it.
    http://www.econlib.org/library/Smith/smWN.html
    From book 4

    "By restraining, either by high duties or by absolute prohibitions, the importation of such goods from foreign countries as can be produced at home, the monopoly of the home market is more or less secured to the domestic industry employed in producing them. Thus the prohibition of importing either live cattle*32 or salt provisions from foreign countries secures to the graziers of Great Britain the monopoly of the home market for butcher's meat. The high duties upon the importation of corn,*33 which in times of moderate plenty amount to a prohibition, give a like advantage to the growers of that commodity. The prohibition of the importation of foreign woollens is equally favourable to the woollen manufacturers..."

    Just because we love something does not mean it is not injurious to us.
    Sure. But if Smith's GB beef were like iphones, tariffs on foreign beef would be unnecessary because even if foreign beef were half the price of GB, we'd be saying naah, we gotta have GB beef 8.0 with face recognition and wireless charging, and sod the £1000 a lb. it costs.
  • HYUFD said:

    Support for Scottish independence rebounding and decoupling from SNP support.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/poll-support-for-independence-sees-boost-to-46-1-4562461

    So the best Nats can claim is a poll giving 46% Yes, just 1% above what they got in 2014 and still well below what they were getting even a year ago. Pathetic
    I assume in your somewhat unconvincing complacency that you're all for the current pro independence majority in Holyrood to decide on an Indy Ref II asap, aye?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't think classical free market theory has any problem with the idea that there is a natural tendency towards monopolies. Adam Smith certainly didn't and expected cabals to form which would use monopoly power.

    Where I think traditional economics really struggles is that it assumes a largely closed system in which effects are predictable within that system. It allows for exports and imports but it does not contemplate economies that are as nearly open as those today.

    So, if our government decides to increase spending traditional economics assume that will boost consumption and production. The possibility that that consumption might be met almost entirely by imports with the increase in spending thus dissipated was not contemplated. Keynes talked of a multiplier effect by which £1 spent by government produced several more as those that provided the service for that £1 used services themselves and recycled the profits within the system. This is not where we are.

    But as far as I remember (and I suppose I ought in a perfect world to go and look at what he actually said) he thought the drive towards cartels/monopolies would be 100% driven by sellers and 100% injurious to buyers. But we love it.
    http://www.econlib.org/library/Smith/smWN.html
    From book 4

    "By restraining, either by high duties or by absolute prohibitions, the importation of such goods from foreign countries as can be produced at home, the monopoly of the home market is more or less secured to the domestic industry employed in producing them. Thus the prohibition of importing either live cattle*32 or salt provisions from foreign countries secures to the graziers of Great Britain the monopoly of the home market for butcher's meat. The high duties upon the importation of corn,*33 which in times of moderate plenty amount to a prohibition, give a like advantage to the growers of that commodity. The prohibition of the importation of foreign woollens is equally favourable to the woollen manufacturers..."

    Just because we love something does not mean it is not injurious to us.
    Sure. But if Smith's GB beef were like iphones, tariffs on foreign beef would be unnecessary because even if foreign beef were half the price of GB, we'd be saying naah, we gotta have GB beef 8.0 with face recognition and wireless charging, and sod the £1000 a lb. it costs.
    The economics of people choosing to spend £1000 on a phone of their own volition with no threats of violence is confusing, I will give you that. I think I will be resisting.
  • FF43 said:

    Interesting article. Labour economists reckon immigration has virtually no net effect on the number of jobs available to the indigenous population as immigrants grow the economy just enough to pay for their additional job. Logically therefore if immigration is restricted, no jobs will be added as GDP contracts, although there may be a lag. Immigration does, according to the same labour economists, result in the indigenous population having more availability of better paid jobs as immigrants take the lower paying ones. The reverse presumably happens as immigration is restricted.

    On minimum wage. It works as long as employers pay more per hour, but pay for fewer hours to get the same job done. In other words, a higher minimum wage means either there's more unemployment or people just get the same wage but over fewer hours. Unless the economy grows. Which unfortunately it isn't and won't, because of Brexit.

    So to be richer all we have to do is get the entire population of Bangladesh or Nigeria to move to Britain.

    Well its a view I suppose.

    Whereas in the real world ...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,402
    edited September 2017

    FF43 said:

    Interesting article. Labour economists reckon immigration has virtually no net effect on the number of jobs available to the indigenous population as immigrants grow the economy just enough to pay for their additional job. Logically therefore if immigration is restricted, no jobs will be added as GDP contracts, although there may be a lag. Immigration does, according to the same labour economists, result in the indigenous population having more availability of better paid jobs as immigrants take the lower paying ones. The reverse presumably happens as immigration is restricted.

    On minimum wage. It works as long as employers pay more per hour, but pay for fewer hours to get the same job done. In other words, a higher minimum wage means either there's more unemployment or people just get the same wage but over fewer hours. Unless the economy grows. Which unfortunately it isn't and won't, because of Brexit.

    So to be richer all we have to do is get the entire population of Bangladesh or Nigeria to move to Britain.

    Well its a view I suppose.

    Whereas in the real world ...
    Not the view I have, as would be clear if you actually read what I wrote.

    PS richer on a per head basis. If we imported populations, overall GDP would grow, of course.
  • Scott_P said:
    "We will want to remain a member of Europol."

    That is not possible without being an EU member. You can have an agreement with Europol, as many countries around the world do, but you cannot be a member.
  • Janet Daley pretty much saying May is unfit to continue being PM:

    "Every journalist I know has an almost identically disheartening story about trying to sustain a conversation with her."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/16/no-games-moment-truth-conservatives-boris-johnson/
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    I don't think classical free market theory has any problem with the idea that there is a natural tendency towards monopolies. Adam Smith certainly didn't and expected cabals to form which would use monopoly power.

    Where I think traditional economics really struggles is that it assumes a largely closed system in which effects are predictable within that system. It allows for exports and imports but it does not contemplate economies that are as nearly open as those today.

    So, if our government decides to increase spending traditional economics assume that will boost consumption and production. The possibility that that consumption might be met almost entirely by imports with the increase in spending thus dissipated was not contemplated. Keynes talked of a multiplier effect by which £1 spent by government produced several more as those that provided the service for that £1 used services themselves and recycled the profits within the system. This is not where we are.

    But as far as I remember (and I suppose I ought in a perfect world to go and look at what he actually said) he thought the drive towards cartels/monopolies would be 100% driven by sellers and 100% injurious to buyers. But we love it.
    http://www.econlib.org/library/Smith/smWN.html
    From book 4

    "By restraining, either by high duties or by absolute prohibitions, the importation of such goods from foreign countries as can be produced at home, the monopoly of the home market is more or less secured to the domestic industry employed in producing them. Thus the prohibition of importing either live cattle*32 or salt provisions from foreign countries secures to the graziers of Great Britain the monopoly of the home market for butcher's meat. The high duties upon the importation of corn,*33 which in times of moderate plenty amount to a prohibition, give a like advantage to the growers of that commodity. The prohibition of the importation of foreign woollens is equally favourable to the woollen manufacturers..."

    Just because we love something does not mean it is not injurious to us.
    Sure. But if Smith's GB beef were like iphones, tariffs on foreign beef would be unnecessary because even if foreign beef were half the price of GB, we'd be saying naah, we gotta have GB beef 8.0 with face recognition and wireless charging, and sod the £1000 a lb. it costs.
    Exactly. As has already been said, brilliant as Smith's analysis was at the time and for long afterwards, it no longer describes the world we live in.
  • One reason why average wages aren't rising is the increase in low grade service sector jobs:

    ' Ten years ago there were fewer than 10,000 places to buy coffee in the UK and fewer than a third of those belonged to the big chains, such as Starbucks, Nero's and Costa, according to coffee market researchers Allegra.

    By the end of last year there were more than 22,000 coffee shops, and branded outlets had doubled in number. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41251451

    That's also evidence that there is no shortage of spare money.

    The rise of coffee shops parallels the decline in pubs. We are becoming more sober in our habits.
    There will also be a gender related financial shift involved.

    Mark-ups in coffee shops will also be significantly higher.
    Indeed, but part of that is sofa and table rental.

    Takeaway coffee in a plasticised cup is less justifieable.
    Sofa and table rental ???

    Is this something beyond a piece of furniture to sit down on and another piece of furniture to put your drink on.

    Together with £1,000 phone I've heard two new things this morning. It must be that metropolitan sophistication I've read about.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    One reason why average wages aren't rising is the increase in low grade service sector jobs:

    ' Ten years ago there were fewer than 10,000 places to buy coffee in the UK and fewer than a third of those belonged to the big chains, such as Starbucks, Nero's and Costa, according to coffee market researchers Allegra.

    By the end of last year there were more than 22,000 coffee shops, and branded outlets had doubled in number. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41251451

    That's also evidence that there is no shortage of spare money.

    The rise of coffee shops parallels the decline in pubs. We are becoming more sober in our habits.
    There will also be a gender related financial shift involved.

    Mark-ups in coffee shops will also be significantly higher.
    Indeed, but part of that is sofa and table rental.

    Takeaway coffee in a plasticised cup is less justifieable.
    The plasticised cup costs more than the coffee it contains

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/10327484/The-priciest-part-of-your-takeaway-coffee-Its-the-cup-not-the-beans.html

    There is a staggering amount of material on the internet about the markup on a Starbucks coffee, most of it wrong in that it ignores overheads but then kinda compensates by assuming Starbucks buys coffee at retail prices whereas actually Starbucks only works because its core product costs it virtually nothing. It says something about modern life that we all know this but Starbucks still exists.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    One reason why average wages aren't rising is the increase in low grade service sector jobs:

    ' Ten years ago there were fewer than 10,000 places to buy coffee in the UK and fewer than a third of those belonged to the big chains, such as Starbucks, Nero's and Costa, according to coffee market researchers Allegra.

    By the end of last year there were more than 22,000 coffee shops, and branded outlets had doubled in number. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41251451

    That's also evidence that there is no shortage of spare money.

    The rise of coffee shops parallels the decline in pubs. We are becoming more sober in our habits.
    There will also be a gender related financial shift involved.

    Mark-ups in coffee shops will also be significantly higher.
    Indeed, but part of that is sofa and table rental.

    Takeaway coffee in a plasticised cup is less justifieable.
    Sofa and table rental ???

    Is this something beyond a piece of furniture to sit down on and another piece of furniture to put your drink on.

    Together with £1,000 phone I've heard two new things this morning. It must be that metropolitan sophistication I've read about.
    Shorthand for overheads.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,525
    edited September 2017
    Connectivity and broadband speed are things that need to be looked at. If the free market can provide them to the levels of Estonia and Korea then fine. They are not doing so.
    In tandem we need a sea change in attitude from employers and employees as to what constitutes "work" these days. I fail to believe that the many of the millions clogging up the roads and railways actually need to be physically present at their destination. Commuting is a major drag on productivity with stressed, angry and knackered employees.
    Unfortunately, our leaders are from a different generation who see work in terms of a career progression and as a binary state of employed/unemployed. In truth, the future will be underemployed/over employed.
    What can be done? Who knows? Good points have been made from both left and right, but I fear we are groping our way into a future society largely in the dark with a system of regulations utterly unfit for purpose and a toolbox of solutions which no longer apply.
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting article. Labour economists reckon immigration has virtually no net effect on the number of jobs available to the indigenous population as immigrants grow the economy just enough to pay for their additional job. Logically therefore if immigration is restricted, no jobs will be added as GDP contracts, although there may be a lag. Immigration does, according to the same labour economists, result in the indigenous population having more availability of better paid jobs as immigrants take the lower paying ones. The reverse presumably happens as immigration is restricted.

    On minimum wage. It works as long as employers pay more per hour, but pay for fewer hours to get the same job done. In other words, a higher minimum wage means either there's more unemployment or people just get the same wage but over fewer hours. Unless the economy grows. Which unfortunately it isn't and won't, because of Brexit.

    So to be richer all we have to do is get the entire population of Bangladesh or Nigeria to move to Britain.

    Well its a view I suppose.

    Whereas in the real world ...
    Not the view I have, as would be clear if you actually read what I wrote.

    PS richer on a per head basis. If we imported populations, overall GDP would grow, of course.
    My apologies I assumed you were referring to these 'labour economists' in approval.

    Aside from the issue that not all immigrants are the same I find this deduction curious - 'Logically therefore if immigration is restricted, no jobs will be added as GDP contracts'.

    The UK had negative migration for much of the 1970s and 1980s yet they were decades of much higher GDP growth and even more so GDP per capita growth than the high immigration decade which the UK has just experienced.
  • Janet Daley pretty much saying May is unfit to continue being PM:

    "Every journalist I know has an almost identically disheartening story about trying to sustain a conversation with her."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/16/no-games-moment-truth-conservatives-boris-johnson/

    May continues to lead the Tories because all the other options are worse. That's how abysmal the Tories are. Luckily for them, they are facing an opponent who drives millions of votes into their arms. Of course, for the country as a whole it's a disaster. Never have we been so badly served by our political class.

  • Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681

    FF43 said:

    Interesting article. Labour economists reckon immigration has virtually no net effect on the number of jobs available to the indigenous population as immigrants grow the economy just enough to pay for their additional job. Logically therefore if immigration is restricted, no jobs will be added as GDP contracts, although there may be a lag. Immigration does, according to the same labour economists, result in the indigenous population having more availability of better paid jobs as immigrants take the lower paying ones. The reverse presumably happens as immigration is restricted.

    On minimum wage. It works as long as employers pay more per hour, but pay for fewer hours to get the same job done. In other words, a higher minimum wage means either there's more unemployment or people just get the same wage but over fewer hours. Unless the economy grows. Which unfortunately it isn't and won't, because of Brexit.

    So to be richer all we have to do is get the entire population of Bangladesh or Nigeria to move to Britain.

    Well its a view I suppose.

    Whereas in the real world ...
    We are already one of the most overpopulated countries comparing land area and population
  • dixiedean said:

    Connectivity and broadband speed are things that need to be looked at. If the free market can provide them to the levels of Estonia and Korea then fine. They are not doing so.
    In tandem we need a sea change in attitude from employers and employees as to what constitutes "work" these days. I fail to believe that the many of the millions clogging up the roads and railways actually need to be physically present at their destination. Commuting is a major drag on productivity with stressed, angry and knackered employees.
    Unfortunately, our leaders are from a different generation who see work in terms of a career progression and as a binary state of employed/unemployed. In truth, the future will be underemployed/over employed.
    What can be done? Who knows? Good points have been made from both left and right, but I fear we are groping our way into a future society largely in the dark with a system of regulations utterly unfit for purpose and a toolbox of solutions which no longer apply.

    My eldest son living in Vancouver operates his New Zealand and Asian business almost entirely on line from home with the odd visit to US, Australia, New Zealand and China.

    My youngest son is head of IT in charge of hundreds of computers, laptops and smartphones and yet is able to manage the systems from anywhere Worldwide by remote control

    It is an amazing World
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    One reason why average wages aren't rising is the increase in low grade service sector jobs:

    ' Ten years ago there were fewer than 10,000 places to buy coffee in the UK and fewer than a third of those belonged to the big chains, such as Starbucks, Nero's and Costa, according to coffee market researchers Allegra.

    By the end of last year there were more than 22,000 coffee shops, and branded outlets had doubled in number. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41251451

    That's also evidence that there is no shortage of spare money.

    The rise of coffee shops parallels the decline in pubs. We are becoming more sober in our habits.
    There will also be a gender related financial shift involved.

    Mark-ups in coffee shops will also be significantly higher.
    Indeed, but part of that is sofa and table rental.

    Takeaway coffee in a plasticised cup is less justifieable.
    Sofa and table rental ???

    Is this something beyond a piece of furniture to sit down on and another piece of furniture to put your drink on.

    Together with £1,000 phone I've heard two new things this morning. It must be that metropolitan sophistication I've read about.
    Three quid for a couple of hours of table, chair, wifi and power rental in a city centre is a LOT cheaper than a local hotel's business centre. ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    edited September 2017

    HYUFD said:

    Support for Scottish independence rebounding and decoupling from SNP support.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/poll-support-for-independence-sees-boost-to-46-1-4562461

    So the best Nats can claim is a poll giving 46% Yes, just 1% above what they got in 2014 and still well below what they were getting even a year ago. Pathetic
    I assume in your somewhat unconvincing complacency that you're all for the current pro independence majority in Holyrood to decide on an Indy Ref II asap, aye?
    Of course not, there has been no significant change from the 45% Yes got in 2014.

    At least you got your independence referendum and the British government did not send in the armed forces and police to stop one as the Spanish are now doing in Catalonia so count your blessings!
  • Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    We are believing polls again now are we?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    HYUFD said:

    Opinium has an exact tie between Labour and the Tories in its Observer poll today
    Tories 41%
    Labour 41%
    LD 6%
    https://mobile.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/909362687586525185

    Hard to see how Sir Vince becomes PM on those numbers? ;)
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Opinium has an exact tie between Labour and the Tories in its Observer poll today
    Tories 41%
    Labour 41%
    LD 6%
    https://mobile.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/909362687586525185

    Hard to see how Sir Vince becomes PM on those numbers? ;)
    He'd be happy enough just to be talked about at the moment. Which you are doing of course.
  • Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    We are believing polls again now are we?
    There does seem to be a remarkable consistency in them recently and I do think we may be near or even at peak Corbyn.

    The government are moving onto his agenda with the abolition of the public sector pay cap and now adjustments to tuition fees which Corbyn can lay credit for but the difference is that the government are far more trusted on the economy and you will hear this reasoning often

    'We want to be fair to public sector workers/ students but fair to the tax payer'
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    Hold thy nerve, St. Theresa.

    Keeping the Tories above 40% in Govt is a tremendous effort and should be applauded by all Tories.
  • Sandpit said:

    One reason why average wages aren't rising is the increase in low grade service sector jobs:

    ' Ten years ago there were fewer than 10,000 places to buy coffee in the UK and fewer than a third of those belonged to the big chains, such as Starbucks, Nero's and Costa, according to coffee market researchers Allegra.

    By the end of last year there were more than 22,000 coffee shops, and branded outlets had doubled in number. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41251451

    That's also evidence that there is no shortage of spare money.

    The rise of coffee shops parallels the decline in pubs. We are becoming more sober in our habits.
    There will also be a gender related financial shift involved.

    Mark-ups in coffee shops will also be significantly higher.
    Indeed, but part of that is sofa and table rental.

    Takeaway coffee in a plasticised cup is less justifieable.
    Sofa and table rental ???

    Is this something beyond a piece of furniture to sit down on and another piece of furniture to put your drink on.

    Together with £1,000 phone I've heard two new things this morning. It must be that metropolitan sophistication I've read about.
    Three quid for a couple of hours of table, chair, wifi and power rental in a city centre is a LOT cheaper than a local hotel's business centre. ;)
    Seriously how much coffee shop usage is for business purposes ?

    Now there may be some in London and the like and perhaps paying to drink in Starbucks is a relief from the shared room squalor of inner city living.

    But in my experience the customer of coffee shops consists of affluent pensioners and yummie mummies shovelling cake into their mouths.
  • Mortimer said:

    Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    Hold thy nerve, St. Theresa.

    Keeping the Tories above 40% in Govt is a tremendous effort and should be applauded by all Tories.
    The way some of them are whining you'd think the Tories were in the twenties....
  • Mortimer said:

    Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    Hold thy nerve, St. Theresa.

    Keeping the Tories above 40% in Govt is a tremendous effort and should be applauded by all Tories.
    I am very pleased that she has weathered the storm and was very Prime Ministerial over the tube attack.

    I do think her ability to express herself is a downside but with all the nonsense going on around her she does come over as the serious politiciam
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting article. Labour economists reckon immigration has virtually no net effect on the number of jobs available to the indigenous population as immigrants grow the economy just enough to pay for their additional job. Logically therefore if immigration is restricted, no jobs will be added as GDP contracts, although there may be a lag. Immigration does, according to the same labour economists, result in the indigenous population having more availability of better paid jobs as immigrants take the lower paying ones. The reverse presumably happens as immigration is restricted.

    On minimum wage. It works as long as employers pay more per hour, but pay for fewer hours to get the same job done. In other words, a higher minimum wage means either there's more unemployment or people just get the same wage but over fewer hours. Unless the economy grows. Which unfortunately it isn't and won't, because of Brexit.

    So to be richer all we have to do is get the entire population of Bangladesh or Nigeria to move to Britain.

    Well its a view I suppose.

    Whereas in the real world ...
    We are already one of the most overpopulated countries comparing land area and population
    The entire human population on this planet could be crammed onto the Isle of Wight, and could exist quite happily on an area the size of Alaska. People who live in towns and cities tend to forget that there is a great big world outside of their miserable existence! ;-)
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    The public mood for the first time in my memory is moving leftwards. You might be right, the Tories might find a way of riding it. But it won't fall into their lap.
  • The public mood for the first time in my memory is moving leftwards. You might be right, the Tories might find a way of riding it. But it won't fall into their lap.

    Not sure - I think the public mood is where it always has been - right in the centre
  • Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    We are believing polls again now are we?
    There does seem to be a remarkable consistency in them recently and I do think we may be near or even at peak Corbyn.

    The government are moving onto his agenda with the abolition of the public sector pay cap and now adjustments to tuition fees which Corbyn can lay credit for but the difference is that the government are far more trusted on the economy and you will hear this reasoning often

    'We want to be fair to public sector workers/ students but fair to the tax payer'

    The country is split between anti-Tory and anti-Labour. Opinion is divorced from events. All polls are consistent in showing almost no shifts since the election. It's hard to see how that changes.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    OchEye said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting article. Labour economists reckon immigration has virtually no net effect on the number of jobs available to the indigenous population as immigrants grow the economy just enough to pay for their additional job. Logically therefore if immigration is restricted, no jobs will be added as GDP contracts, although there may be a lag. Immigration does, according to the same labour economists, result in the indigenous population having more availability of better paid jobs as immigrants take the lower paying ones. The reverse presumably happens as immigration is restricted.

    On minimum wage. It works as long as employers pay more per hour, but pay for fewer hours to get the same job done. In other words, a higher minimum wage means either there's more unemployment or people just get the same wage but over fewer hours. Unless the economy grows. Which unfortunately it isn't and won't, because of Brexit.

    So to be richer all we have to do is get the entire population of Bangladesh or Nigeria to move to Britain.

    Well its a view I suppose.

    Whereas in the real world ...
    We are already one of the most overpopulated countries comparing land area and population
    The entire human population on this planet could be crammed onto the Isle of Wight, and could exist quite happily on an area the size of Alaska. People who live in towns and cities tend to forget that there is a great big world outside of their miserable existence! ;-)
    Yes and people near fields and Green Belt do not want it all built on
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681

    The public mood for the first time in my memory is moving leftwards. You might be right, the Tories might find a way of riding it. But it won't fall into their lap.

    Leftward on more spending and higher taxes on the rich, still rightwards on immigration, a tougher approach to terrorism and cuts to their own taxes
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    edited September 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Opinium has an exact tie between Labour and the Tories in its Observer poll today
    Tories 41%
    Labour 41%
    LD 6%
    https://mobile.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/909362687586525185

    Hard to see how Sir Vince becomes PM on those numbers? ;)
    Mind you Sir Vince could be kingmaker on those numbers and hold the balance of power
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,843
    edited September 2017
    It sounds like the Lib Dem conference will lead to a hardening of their Remain position.
    https://twitter.com/caronmlindsay/status/909379296724226048
    https://twitter.com/thetorchsays/status/909379679097847808
  • Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    We are believing polls again now are we?
    There does seem to be a remarkable consistency in them recently and I do think we may be near or even at peak Corbyn.

    The government are moving onto his agenda with the abolition of the public sector pay cap and now adjustments to tuition fees which Corbyn can lay credit for but the difference is that the government are far more trusted on the economy and you will hear this reasoning often

    'We want to be fair to public sector workers/ students but fair to the tax payer'

    The country is split between anti-Tory and anti-Labour. Opinion is divorced from events. All polls are consistent in showing almost no shifts since the election. It's hard to see how that changes.

    It will change as we get closer to March 2019 but at present I think there is a possibilty that TM may recover her position but not sufficient to lead into the 2022 GE
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 666
    edited September 2017
    This is a great article and sets up a question that no one really knows the answer to. Here is the perspective from my small technology business with about 50 employees. There are few skilled brits available for hire and almost no men. Our two recent skilled hires were from Greece and Brazil. The skill base of school leavers is dire as they don't even have basic knowledge like how to clean or cook. Their work effort is weak but they need jobs to survive.

    Implementing computer systems to get the productivity gains we need is hard. Computer staff are expensive and many of our managers struggle to use computers correctly.

    In our industry we compete with 2 large global multinationals. They soak up the uk talent but often send them abroad. They are not however investing in uk production.

    Overall we have a very fluid economy that blows with the wind. This is both a strength and a potential weakness. Political input will have unintended consequences which no one can predict. My problem with brexit is not I love Europe or where rules are made but my lack of trust with our politicians not to mess it up.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Weather in Singapore looking somewhat variable.
  • It sounds like the Lib Dem conference will lead to a hardening of their Remain position.
    https://twitter.com/caronmlindsay/status/909379296724226048
    https://twitter.com/thetorchsays/status/909379679097847808

    How can they harden their remain position - they are already Juncker's troopers
  • Off topic, I see Remainers were very rattled last night by Boris, and the emergence of allies of his (something I urged pb'ers to look out for when Tim Stanley broke the story) in the press.

    Anyone would think they're worried that if May does fall, Boris's approach might make both Brexit and the Government more popular.

    At one time last night it was a complete remainers takeover as they talked and agreed with each other. It was like a lib dem conference.

    I have reservations about Boris but judging by the outpouring of the remainers and fury from those both here and in Europe you may be onto something with Boris.

    And by the way - Cable just announced he could be Prime Minister - you could not make it up
    I'm sorry that you were miffed by the presence of more Remainers than was to your liking. I doubt they were attempting any kind of 'takeover' but were just voicing their opinions. To be honest, I get bored with the massive volume of posts - mainly from you - about how wonderful Theresa May is, but try to let it wash over me. As for Boris, no one is furious at him or feels threatened by him. The referendum is over, Leave won and Brexit will happen. It's his judgement, priorities and capacity to steer the country into the post-Brexit world that's in question. The same is true of all the 'Brexiteers'. If you want to hand wave that away it's up to you; the rest of us intend to be more scrupulous.
  • This is a great article and sets up a question that no one really knows the answer to. Here is the perspective from my small technology business with about 50 employees. There are few skilled brits available for hire and almost no men. Our two recent skilled hires were from Greece and Brazil. The skill base of school leavers is dire as they don't even have basic knowledge like how to clean or cook. Their work effort is weak but they need jobs to survive.

    Implementing computer systems to get the productivity gains we need is hard. Computer staff are expensive and many of our managers struggle to use computers correctly.

    In our industry we compete with 2 large global multinationals. They soak up the uk talent but often send them abroad. They are not however investing in uk production.

    Overall we have a very fluid economy that blows with the wind. This is both a strength and a potential weakness. Political input will have unintended consequences which no one can predict. My problem with brexit is not I love Europe or where rules are made but my lack of trust with our politicians not to mess it up.

    There is a massive shortage of programmers and other skilled IT people, even with free movement. Once that ends, it will put a lot of tech-based UK businesses in very serious trouble - especially the smaller ones.

  • This is a great article and sets up a question that no one really knows the answer to. Here is the perspective from my small technology business with about 50 employees. There are few skilled brits available for hire and almost no men. Our two recent skilled hires were from Greece and Brazil. The skill base of school leavers is dire as they don't even have basic knowledge like how to clean or cook. Their work effort is weak but they need jobs to survive.

    Implementing computer systems to get the productivity gains we need is hard. Computer staff are expensive and many of our managers struggle to use computers correctly.

    In our industry we compete with 2 large global multinationals. They soak up the uk talent but often send them abroad. They are not however investing in uk production.

    Overall we have a very fluid economy that blows with the wind. This is both a strength and a potential weakness. Political input will have unintended consequences which no one can predict. My problem with brexit is not I love Europe or where rules are made but my lack of trust with our politicians not to mess it up.

    Very interesting and agree with your last paragraph but politicians in that context must include those in the EU as well
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2017
    HYUFD said:

    OchEye said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting article. Labour economists reckon immigration has virtually no net effect on the number of jobs available to the indigenous population as immigrants grow the economy just enough to pay for their additional job. Logically therefore if immigration is restricted, no jobs will be added as GDP contracts, although there may be a lag. Immigration does, according to the same labour economists, result in the indigenous population having more availability of better paid jobs as immigrants take the lower paying ones. The reverse presumably happens as immigration is restricted.

    On minimum wage. It works as long as employers pay more per hour, but pay for fewer hours to get the same job done. In other words, a higher minimum wage means either there's more unemployment or people just get the same wage but over fewer hours. Unless the economy grows. Which unfortunately it isn't and won't, because of Brexit.

    So to be richer all we have to do is get the entire population of Bangladesh or Nigeria to move to Britain.

    Well its a view I suppose.

    Whereas in the real world ...
    We are already one of the most overpopulated countries comparing land area and population
    The entire human population on this planet could be crammed onto the Isle of Wight, and could exist quite happily on an area the size of Alaska. People who live in towns and cities tend to forget that there is a great big world outside of their miserable existence! ;-)
    Yes and people near fields and Green Belt do not want it all built on
    (but want to live there themselves)

    Presumably they don't see the location of their own house as a problem?

    What they *want* is unacceptable nimbyism. Significant low-level development in the shires is part of the solution to the housing crisis.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256


    Seriously how much coffee shop usage is for business purposes ?

    Now there may be some in London and the like and perhaps paying to drink in Starbucks is a relief from the shared room squalor of inner city living.

    But in my experience the customer of coffee shops consists of affluent pensioners and yummie mummies shovelling cake into their mouths.

    You need to frequent better coffee shops. I frequently attend business meetings in Starbucks and Costa and it is not always me arranging those meetings. For micro-businesses or people who work from home it is often a pleasant environment with convenient parking and an endless supply of coffee, teas, biscuits, cakes, wifi and comfy seating. Start the meeting at 9.30 or 10.00 and most of the place is fairly empty as the "... affluent pensioners and yummie mummies shovelling cake into their mouths" tend to arrive nearer midday / lunch.

  • Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    We are believing polls again now are we?
    There does seem to be a remarkable consistency in them recently and I do think we may be near or even at peak Corbyn.

    The government are moving onto his agenda with the abolition of the public sector pay cap and now adjustments to tuition fees which Corbyn can lay credit for but the difference is that the government are far more trusted on the economy and you will hear this reasoning often

    'We want to be fair to public sector workers/ students but fair to the tax payer'

    The country is split between anti-Tory and anti-Labour. Opinion is divorced from events. All polls are consistent in showing almost no shifts since the election. It's hard to see how that changes.

    It will change as we get closer to March 2019 but at present I think there is a possibilty that TM may recover her position but not sufficient to lead into the 2022 GE

    I suspect there'll be bigger shifts post-Brexit. A cliff-edge, no surrender departure departure might give the Tories a brief poll boost, but as the smart ones clearly know that will not be sustainable.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    edited September 2017

    Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    We are believing polls again now are we?
    There does seem to be a remarkable consistency in them recently and I do think we may be near or even at peak Corbyn.

    The government are moving onto his agenda with the abolition of the public sector pay cap and now adjustments to tuition fees which Corbyn can lay credit for but the difference is that the government are far more trusted on the economy and you will hear this reasoning often

    'We want to be fair to public sector workers/ students but fair to the tax payer'

    The country is split between anti-Tory and anti-Labour. Opinion is divorced from events. All polls are consistent in showing almost no shifts since the election. It's hard to see how that changes.

    It will change as we get closer to March 2019 but at present I think there is a possibilty that TM may recover her position but not sufficient to lead into the 2022 GE

    I suspect there'll be bigger shifts post-Brexit. A cliff-edge, no surrender departure departure might give the Tories a brief poll boost, but as the smart ones clearly know that will not be sustainable.

    The new Tory leader would call a general election soon after Brexit. That is how Boris can win, longer term though after that it will be more difficult for the Tories especially if Labour then get a more moderate leader post a Corbyn defeat
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited September 2017

    The public mood for the first time in my memory is moving leftwards. You might be right, the Tories might find a way of riding it. But it won't fall into their lap.

    Yep. The Tories ceding ground to Labour on certain issues just gives Labour's message more credence and Corbyn more credibility - making it harder for them to critique his overall agenda and depict him as extreme. Corbyn has unbelievably managed to move much of the debate onto Labour's territory in a way someone like Tony Blair did not to be quite frank. Blair instead moved to the Tories territory on many issues.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    OchEye said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting article. Labour economists reckon immigration has virtually no net effect on the number of jobs available to the indigenous population as immigrants grow the economy just enough to pay for their additional job. Logically therefore if immigration is restricted, no jobs will be added as GDP contracts, although there may be a lag. Immigration does, according to the same labour economists, result in the indigenous population having more availability of better paid jobs as immigrants take the lower paying ones. The reverse presumably happens as immigration is restricted.

    On minimum wage. It works as long as employers pay more per hour, but pay for fewer hours to get the same job done. In other words, a higher minimum wage means either there's more unemployment or people just get the same wage but over fewer hours. Unless the economy grows. Which unfortunately it isn't and won't, because of Brexit.

    So to be richer all we have to do is get the entire population of Bangladesh or Nigeria to move to Britain.

    Well its a view I suppose.

    Whereas in the real world ...
    We are already one of the most overpopulated countries comparing land area and population
    The entire human population on this planet could be crammed onto the Isle of Wight, and could exist quite happily on an area the size of Alaska. People who live in towns and cities tend to forget that there is a great big world outside of their miserable existence! ;-)
    Yes and people near fields and Green Belt do not want it all built on
    (but want to live there themselves)

    Presumably they don't see the location of their own house as a problem?

    What they *want* is unacceptable nimbyism. Significant low-level development in the shires is part of the solution to the housing crisis.
    Yes well that is the view, especially in the Home Counties
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    We are believing polls again now are we?
    There does seem to be a remarkable consistency in them recently and I do think we may be near or even at peak Corbyn.

    The government are moving onto his agenda with the abolition of the public sector pay cap and now adjustments to tuition fees which Corbyn can lay credit for but the difference is that the government are far more trusted on the economy and you will hear this reasoning often

    'We want to be fair to public sector workers/ students but fair to the tax payer'

    The country is split between anti-Tory and anti-Labour. Opinion is divorced from events. All polls are consistent in showing almost no shifts since the election. It's hard to see how that changes.

    Let the tories try to elect Boris, that should do it.

    He is roundly disliked by other Foreign Secretaries. I wonder how other PMs would view him as UK PM? Personally I do not think he would be any better liked but I am fairly certain that his election to PM would precipitate a crisis in Brussels given his apparently total incoherence on Europe.
  • Off topic, I see Remainers were very rattled last night by Boris, and the emergence of allies of his (something I urged pb'ers to look out for when Tim Stanley broke the story) in the press.

    Anyone would think they're worried that if May does fall, Boris's approach might make both Brexit and the Government more popular.

    At one time last night it was a complete remainers takeover as they talked and agreed with each other. It was like a lib dem conference.

    I have reservations about Boris but judging by the outpouring of the remainers and fury from those both here and in Europe you may be onto something with Boris.

    And by the way - Cable just announced he could be Prime Minister - you could not make it up
    I'm sorry that you were miffed by the presence of more Remainers than was to your liking. I doubt they were attempting any kind of 'takeover' but were just voicing their opinions. To be honest, I get bored with the massive volume of posts - mainly from you - about how wonderful Theresa May is, but try to let it wash over me. As for Boris, no one is furious at him or feels threatened by him. The referendum is over, Leave won and Brexit will happen. It's his judgement, priorities and capacity to steer the country into the post-Brexit world that's in question. The same is true of all the 'Brexiteers'. If you want to hand wave that away it's up to you; the rest of us intend to be more scrupulous.
    Not miffed just at that point last night the remainers were virtually the only ones commenting and they were talking to themselves.

    You get bored with the majority of posts, mainly from me, that you allege state that I think TM is wonderful. Putting that interpretation on my posts may suit you but if you read my posts you will see that I do not consider she is wonderful but that she is a serious politician and at present the only one able to undertake Brexit. She will not take us into the 2022 as far as I am concerned neither am I a great fan of Boris.

    When the time comes to elect a new leader I am seeking a new candidate with new ideas and we will have to wait and see who comes along at that time
  • Off topic, I see Remainers were very rattled last night by Boris, and the emergence of allies of his (something I urged pb'ers to look out for when Tim Stanley broke the story) in the press.

    Anyone would think they're worried that if May does fall, Boris's approach might make both Brexit and the Government more popular.

    At one time last night it was a complete remainers takeover as they talked and agreed with each other. It was like a lib dem conference.

    I have reservations about Boris but judging by the outpouring of the remainers and fury from those both here and in Europe you may be onto something with Boris.

    And by the way - Cable just announced he could be Prime Minister - you could not make it up
    I'm sorry that you were miffed by the presence of more Remainers than was to your liking. I doubt they were attempting any kind of 'takeover' but were just voicing their opinions. To be honest, I get bored with the massive volume of posts - mainly from you - about how wonderful Theresa May is, but try to let it wash over me. As for Boris, no one is furious at him or feels threatened by him. The referendum is over, Leave won and Brexit will happen. It's his judgement, priorities and capacity to steer the country into the post-Brexit world that's in question. The same is true of all the 'Brexiteers'. If you want to hand wave that away it's up to you; the rest of us intend to be more scrupulous.
    Not miffed just at that point last night the remainers were virtually the only ones commenting and they were talking to themselves.

    You get bored with the majority of posts, mainly from me, that you allege state that I think TM is wonderful. Putting that interpretation on my posts may suit you but if you read my posts you will see that I do not consider she is wonderful but that she is a serious politician and at present the only one able to undertake Brexit. She will not take us into the 2022 as far as I am concerned neither am I a great fan of Boris.

    When the time comes to elect a new leader I am seeking a new candidate with new ideas and we will have to wait and see who comes along at that time
    The Leavers were probably all out drowning their sorrows. That's hardly the Remainers fault.
  • On coffee chains:

    1) Starbucks have the worst coffee and the best seating. Bloody annoying to be asked my name, especially when they then need me to say it three times. Useful for meetings. Drink the green tea or water.

    2) Caffé Nero probably have the best coffee out of the chains. They need better seating though.

    3) Costa are halfway between on both fronts.

    4) Taylor St Baristas have much better coffee, but boy are they up themselves.

    You'd do much better saving your money anyway. £2 a day soon mounts up (most of us could find something useful to do with £500 a year, which is what you're probably paying if you buy a coffee from one of the chains every working day). Take your own equipment into work.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    This is a great article and sets up a question that no one really knows the answer to. Here is the perspective from my small technology business with about 50 employees. There are few skilled brits available for hire and almost no men. Our two recent skilled hires were from Greece and Brazil. The skill base of school leavers is dire as they don't even have basic knowledge like how to clean or cook. Their work effort is weak but they need jobs to survive.

    Implementing computer systems to get the productivity gains we need is hard. Computer staff are expensive and many of our managers struggle to use computers correctly.

    In our industry we compete with 2 large global multinationals. They soak up the uk talent but often send them abroad. They are not however investing in uk production.

    Overall we have a very fluid economy that blows with the wind. This is both a strength and a potential weakness. Political input will have unintended consequences which no one can predict. My problem with brexit is not I love Europe or where rules are made but my lack of trust with our politicians not to mess it up.

    There is a massive shortage of programmers and other skilled IT people, even with free movement. Once that ends, it will put a lot of tech-based UK businesses in very serious trouble - especially the smaller ones.

    It is already happening. We have moved some of our work abroad because of it. Being in database design it is easy to export the work using a development server in our own offices.

    The quality of recent UK Comp.Sci graduates we interviewed is dire
  • The public mood for the first time in my memory is moving leftwards. You might be right, the Tories might find a way of riding it. But it won't fall into their lap.

    Yep. The Tories ceding ground to Labour on certain issues just gives Labour's message more credence and Corbyn more credibility - making it harder for them to critique his overall agenda and depict him as extreme. Corbyn has unbelievably managed to move much of the debate onto Labour's territory in a way someone like Tony Blair did not to be quite frank. Blair instead moved to the Tories territory on many issues.
    Corbyn will always come under attack for his hard left policies and moderating Corbyn's extremes is good politics and will be recognized as fair to the tax payer
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    On coffee chains:

    1) Starbucks have the worst coffee and the best seating. Bloody annoying to be asked my name, especially when they then need me to say it three times. Useful for meetings. Drink the green tea or water.

    2) Caffé Nero probably have the best coffee out of the chains. They need better seating though.

    3) Costa are halfway between on both fronts.

    4) Taylor St Baristas have much better coffee, but boy are they up themselves.

    You'd do much better saving your money anyway. £2 a day soon mounts up (most of us could find something useful to do with £500 a year, which is what you're probably paying if you buy a coffee from one of the chains every working day). Take your own equipment into work.

    I must admit, Starbucks are on the bottom of my list. I do admit to using Cafe Nero so often that I got a discount card :)

    Costa is OK but in the office it is Taylors of Harrogate's Rich Italian coffee.
  • Off topic, I see Remainers were very rattled last night by Boris, and the emergence of allies of his (something I urged pb'ers to look out for when Tim Stanley broke the story) in the press.

    Anyone would think they're worried that if May does fall, Boris's approach might make both Brexit and the Government more popular.

    At one time last night it was a complete remainers takeover as they talked and agreed with each other. It was like a lib dem conference.

    I have reservations about Boris but judging by the outpouring of the remainers and fury from those both here and in Europe you may be onto something with Boris.

    And by the way - Cable just announced he could be Prime Minister - you could not make it up
    I'm sorry that you were miffed by the presence of more Remainers than was to your liking. I doubt they were attempting any kind of 'takeover' but were just voicing their opinions. To be honest, I get bored with the massive volume of posts - mainly from you - about how wonderful Theresa May is, but try to let it wash over me. As for Boris, no one is furious at him or feels threatened by him. The referendum is over, Leave won and Brexit will happen. It's his judgement, priorities and capacity to steer the country into the post-Brexit world that's in question. The same is true of all the 'Brexiteers'. If you want to hand wave that away it's up to you; the rest of us intend to be more scrupulous.
    Not miffed just at that point last night the remainers were virtually the only ones commenting and they were talking to themselves.

    You get bored with the majority of posts, mainly from me, that you allege state that I think TM is wonderful. Putting that interpretation on my posts may suit you but if you read my posts you will see that I do not consider she is wonderful but that she is a serious politician and at present the only one able to undertake Brexit. She will not take us into the 2022 as far as I am concerned neither am I a great fan of Boris.

    When the time comes to elect a new leader I am seeking a new candidate with new ideas and we will have to wait and see who comes along at that time
    The Leavers were probably all out drowning their sorrows. That's hardly the Remainers fault.
    To be fair it was a remarkable period when virtually all the posters were remain supporters. As I said it was like turning up at a Lib Dem conference !!!
  • This is a great article and sets up a question that no one really knows the answer to. Here is the perspective from my small technology business with about 50 employees. There are few skilled brits available for hire and almost no men. Our two recent skilled hires were from Greece and Brazil. The skill base of school leavers is dire as they don't even have basic knowledge like how to clean or cook. Their work effort is weak but they need jobs to survive.

    Implementing computer systems to get the productivity gains we need is hard. Computer staff are expensive and many of our managers struggle to use computers correctly.

    In our industry we compete with 2 large global multinationals. They soak up the uk talent but often send them abroad. They are not however investing in uk production.

    Overall we have a very fluid economy that blows with the wind. This is both a strength and a potential weakness. Political input will have unintended consequences which no one can predict. My problem with brexit is not I love Europe or where rules are made but my lack of trust with our politicians not to mess it up.

    There is a massive shortage of programmers and other skilled IT people, even with free movement. Once that ends, it will put a lot of tech-based UK businesses in very serious trouble - especially the smaller ones.

    It is already happening. We have moved some of our work abroad because of it. Being in database design it is easy to export the work using a development server in our own offices.

    The quality of recent UK Comp.Sci graduates we interviewed is dire
    "The quality of recent UK Comp.Sci graduates we interviewed is dire"

    In what respect?
  • On coffee chains:

    1) Starbucks have the worst coffee and the best seating. Bloody annoying to be asked my name, especially when they then need me to say it three times. Useful for meetings. Drink the green tea or water.

    2) Caffé Nero probably have the best coffee out of the chains. They need better seating though.

    3) Costa are halfway between on both fronts.

    4) Taylor St Baristas have much better coffee, but boy are they up themselves.

    You'd do much better saving your money anyway. £2 a day soon mounts up (most of us could find something useful to do with £500 a year, which is what you're probably paying if you buy a coffee from one of the chains every working day). Take your own equipment into work.

    I'm not a coffee drinker (can't stand the stuff) but a friend of mine who is recommends McDonalds. Can that be right?
  • On coffee chains:

    1) Starbucks have the worst coffee and the best seating. Bloody annoying to be asked my name, especially when they then need me to say it three times. Useful for meetings. Drink the green tea or water.

    2) Caffé Nero probably have the best coffee out of the chains. They need better seating though.

    3) Costa are halfway between on both fronts.

    4) Taylor St Baristas have much better coffee, but boy are they up themselves.

    You'd do much better saving your money anyway. £2 a day soon mounts up (most of us could find something useful to do with £500 a year, which is what you're probably paying if you buy a coffee from one of the chains every working day). Take your own equipment into work.

    I'm not a coffee drinker (can't stand the stuff) but a friend of mine who is recommends McDonalds. Can that be right?
    I don't think I've been in McDonalds in five years, so I can't comment. I have heard others say that the coffee in McDonalds is surprisingly good though.
  • HYUFD said:

    Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    We are believing polls again now are we?
    There does seem to be a remarkable consistency in them recently and I do think we may be near or even at peak Corbyn.

    The government are moving onto his agenda with the abolition of the public sector pay cap and now adjustments to tuition fees which Corbyn can lay credit for but the difference is that the government are far more trusted on the economy and you will hear this reasoning often

    'We want to be fair to public sector workers/ students but fair to the tax payer'

    The country is split between anti-Tory and anti-Labour. Opinion is divorced from events. All polls are consistent in showing almost no shifts since the election. It's hard to see how that changes.

    It will change as we get closer to March 2019 but at present I think there is a possibilty that TM may recover her position but not sufficient to lead into the 2022 GE

    I suspect there'll be bigger shifts post-Brexit. A cliff-edge, no surrender departure departure might give the Tories a brief poll boost, but as the smart ones clearly know that will not be sustainable.

    The new Tory leader would call a general election soon after Brexit. That is how Boris can win, longer term though after that it will be more difficult for the Tories especially if Labour then get a more moderate leader post a Corbyn defeat

    If the Tories win the next election on the back of waving the Union Jack after taking us off the cliff - and I agree that is very possible - then the identity of the next Labour leader will be largely irrelevant. Whoever it is will become Prime Minister and govern for a very long time as the Tories will be finished as a serious political force for a generation at least.

  • Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    We are believing polls again now are we?
    There does seem to be a remarkable consistency in them recently and I do think we may be near or even at peak Corbyn.

    The government are moving onto his agenda with the abolition of the public sector pay cap and now adjustments to tuition fees which Corbyn can lay credit for but the difference is that the government are far more trusted on the economy and you will hear this reasoning often

    'We want to be fair to public sector workers/ students but fair to the tax payer'

    The country is split between anti-Tory and anti-Labour. Opinion is divorced from events. All polls are consistent in showing almost no shifts since the election. It's hard to see how that changes.

    Let the tories try to elect Boris, that should do it.

    He is roundly disliked by other Foreign Secretaries. I wonder how other PMs would view him as UK PM? Personally I do not think he would be any better liked but I am fairly certain that his election to PM would precipitate a crisis in Brussels given his apparently total incoherence on Europe.
    But if, and it is a big if, he is elected we will be out of the EU so Brussels would not really be a concern
  • What a start to the Grand Prix - carnage
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Lewis bet looking good!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    We are believing polls again now are we?
    There does seem to be a remarkable consistency in them recently and I do think we may be near or even at peak Corbyn.

    The government are moving onto his agenda with the abolition of the public sector pay cap and now adjustments to tuition fees which Corbyn can lay credit for but the difference is that the government are far more trusted on the economy and you will hear this reasoning often

    'We want to be fair to public sector workers/ students but fair to the tax payer'

    The country is split between anti-Tory and anti-Labour. Opinion is divorced from events. All polls are consistent in showing almost no shifts since the election. It's hard to see how that changes.

    Let the tories try to elect Boris, that should do it.

    He is roundly disliked by other Foreign Secretaries. I wonder how other PMs would view him as UK PM? Personally I do not think he would be any better liked but I am fairly certain that his election to PM would precipitate a crisis in Brussels given his apparently total incoherence on Europe.
    But if, and it is a big if, he is elected we will be out of the EU so Brussels would not really be a concern
    You seem to think Brexit leads to some sort of rosy future, I think it leads to an economic shambles staring about Sept 2018.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Who is driving the car to Brexit and what type of car is it ? It looks to me the car has L plates on and dual controls and about to go on the motorway for the first time.
  • Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    We are believing polls again now are we?
    There does seem to be a remarkable consistency in them recently and I do think we may be near or even at peak Corbyn.

    The government are moving onto his agenda with the abolition of the public sector pay cap and now adjustments to tuition fees which Corbyn can lay credit for but the difference is that the government are far more trusted on the economy and you will hear this reasoning often

    'We want to be fair to public sector workers/ students but fair to the tax payer'

    The country is split between anti-Tory and anti-Labour. Opinion is divorced from events. All polls are consistent in showing almost no shifts since the election. It's hard to see how that changes.

    Let the tories try to elect Boris, that should do it.

    He is roundly disliked by other Foreign Secretaries. I wonder how other PMs would view him as UK PM? Personally I do not think he would be any better liked but I am fairly certain that his election to PM would precipitate a crisis in Brussels given his apparently total incoherence on Europe.
    But if, and it is a big if, he is elected we will be out of the EU so Brussels would not really be a concern
    You seem to think Brexit leads to some sort of rosy future, I think it leads to an economic shambles staring about Sept 2018.
    I do see it as a positive but I respect your alternative view. We will see in time
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited September 2017

    On coffee chains:

    1) Starbucks have the worst coffee and the best seating. Bloody annoying to be asked my name, especially when they then need me to say it three times. Useful for meetings. Drink the green tea or water.

    2) Caffé Nero probably have the best coffee out of the chains. They need better seating though.

    3) Costa are halfway between on both fronts.

    4) Taylor St Baristas have much better coffee, but boy are they up themselves.

    You'd do much better saving your money anyway. £2 a day soon mounts up (most of us could find something useful to do with £500 a year, which is what you're probably paying if you buy a coffee from one of the chains every working day). Take your own equipment into work.

    I'm not a coffee drinker (can't stand the stuff) but a friend of mine who is recommends McDonalds. Can that be right?
    I don't think I've been in McDonalds in five years, so I can't comment. I have heard others say that the coffee in McDonalds is surprisingly good though.
    It is, much to my surprise. It is the only thing I have purchased from there since 1992 and it was only the one cup.
  • Yorkcity said:

    Who is driving the car to Brexit and what type of car is it ? It looks to me the car has L plates on and dual controls and about to go on the motorway for the first time.

    Surprised you didn't suggest it was driverless !!!!!!!!!!
  • This is a great article and sets up a question that no one really knows the answer to. Here is the perspective from my small technology business with about 50 employees. There are few skilled brits available for hire and almost no men. Our two recent skilled hires were from Greece and Brazil. The skill base of school leavers is dire as they don't even have basic knowledge like how to clean or cook. Their work effort is weak but they need jobs to survive.

    Implementing computer systems to get the productivity gains we need is hard. Computer staff are expensive and many of our managers struggle to use computers correctly.

    In our industry we compete with 2 large global multinationals. They soak up the uk talent but often send them abroad. They are not however investing in uk production.

    Overall we have a very fluid economy that blows with the wind. This is both a strength and a potential weakness. Political input will have unintended consequences which no one can predict. My problem with brexit is not I love Europe or where rules are made but my lack of trust with our politicians not to mess it up.

    There is a massive shortage of programmers and other skilled IT people, even with free movement. Once that ends, it will put a lot of tech-based UK businesses in very serious trouble - especially the smaller ones.

    It is already happening. We have moved some of our work abroad because of it. Being in database design it is easy to export the work using a development server in our own offices.

    The quality of recent UK Comp.Sci graduates we interviewed is dire

    I don't know anything about computers, so can't comment on the quality of graduates, but what I do know is that even now demand far outstrips supply. Our IT team is increasingly non-British and very fluid. We're outsourcing a lot more than we used to because it's the only way we can manage. And we're not sending work to UK-based businesses. Brexit is clearly going to intensify that process.

  • Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    We are believing polls again now are we?
    There does seem to be a remarkable consistency in them recently and I do think we may be near or even at peak Corbyn.

    The government are moving onto his agenda with the abolition of the public sector pay cap and now adjustments to tuition fees which Corbyn can lay credit for but the difference is that the government are far more trusted on the economy and you will hear this reasoning often

    'We want to be fair to public sector workers/ students but fair to the tax payer'

    The country is split between anti-Tory and anti-Labour. Opinion is divorced from events. All polls are consistent in showing almost no shifts since the election. It's hard to see how that changes.

    Let the tories try to elect Boris, that should do it.

    He is roundly disliked by other Foreign Secretaries. I wonder how other PMs would view him as UK PM? Personally I do not think he would be any better liked but I am fairly certain that his election to PM would precipitate a crisis in Brussels given his apparently total incoherence on Europe.
    You sound like those Lefty Luvvies threatening to leave London in 2008, prior to his election as Mayor.
  • On the one hand, I'd see why Tories would draw some comfort from that Opinium. I too, months ago thought that ties/small leads were a good sign for the Conservatives. But now, I think differently. The Conservatives don't need to stay where are. They need to actually gain votes, which is going to become harder and harder as they continue to mismanage Brexit. For Labour it's likely to get more easier to gain votes, as the government runs into difficulties and loses their competence card, the main Trump card the Tories had over Labour previously. When we look back to April, the consensus was that they was no way May could not come out with a majority from here. Instead we saw that double digit lead evaporate into a very slender lead for the Tories and Corbyn actually make gains. I think the usual way of interpreting poll leads in between elections - may no longer apply anymore.
  • HYUFD said:



    There does seem to be a remarkable consistency in them recently and I do think we may be near or even at peak Corbyn.

    The government are moving onto his agenda with the abolition of the public sector pay cap and now adjustments to tuition fees which Corbyn can lay credit for but the difference is that the government are far more trusted on the economy and you will hear this reasoning often

    'We want to be fair to public sector workers/ students but fair to the tax payer'

    The country is split between anti-Tory and anti-Labour. Opinion is divorced from events. All polls are consistent in showing almost no shifts since the election. It's hard to see how that changes.

    It will change as we get closer to March 2019 but at present I think there is a possibilty that TM may recover her position but not sufficient to lead into the 2022 GE

    I suspect there'll be bigger shifts post-Brexit. A cliff-edge, no surrender departure departure might give the Tories a brief poll boost, but as the smart ones clearly know that will not be sustainable.

    The new Tory leader would call a general election soon after Brexit. That is how Boris can win, longer term though after that it will be more difficult for the Tories especially if Labour then get a more moderate leader post a Corbyn defeat

    If the Tories win the next election on the back of waving the Union Jack after taking us off the cliff - and I agree that is very possible - then the identity of the next Labour leader will be largely irrelevant. Whoever it is will become Prime Minister and govern for a very long time as the Tories will be finished as a serious political force for a generation at least.

    Yes. That looks to be the approach Boris and his supporters are now planning. Presumably the thought is that a deal with the EU is too bothersome and, even it were achieved, politically nebulous anyway. Better to do the 'Clean Brexit', wave some union jacks, talk about looking beyond the horizon and sailing the seven seas, and leave the rest to Liam.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,525
    edited September 2017
    Starbucks is diabolical. Their coffee is disgusting. Burnt gerbil stuff. The food is even worse.

    Surprised no-one has mentioned Pret A Manger. Coffee is very good, much better than the other chains, and the bigger ones are great for business meetings.

    Shout out to Angel Espresso, on the Pentonville Road. Used to be my local, and great for chemistry interviews with job candidates.

    Edit: Yes, McDonald's is not half bad for coffee.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    Who is driving the car to Brexit and what type of car is it ? It looks to me the car has L plates on and dual controls and about to go on the motorway for the first time.

    Surprised you didn't suggest it was driverless !!!!!!!!!!
    I like that big g.No it is been driven but they are fighting over the steering wheel.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,525

    On coffee chains:

    1) Starbucks have the worst coffee and the best seating. Bloody annoying to be asked my name, especially when they then need me to say it three times. Useful for meetings. Drink the green tea or water.

    2) Caffé Nero probably have the best coffee out of the chains. They need better seating though.

    3) Costa are halfway between on both fronts.

    4) Taylor St Baristas have much better coffee, but boy are they up themselves.

    You'd do much better saving your money anyway. £2 a day soon mounts up (most of us could find something useful to do with £500 a year, which is what you're probably paying if you buy a coffee from one of the chains every working day). Take your own equipment into work.

    I'm not a coffee drinker (can't stand the stuff) but a friend of mine who is recommends McDonalds. Can that be right?
    If you can take it out, decant it into a proper cup, and give it 1/2 hour to cool down, then yes. It is much cheaper than any of the coffee chains too!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681

    HYUFD said:

    Opinium:

    The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck for the first time since the general election.
    The Tories have risen by one point since last month, while Labour has dropped two points, to put both parties on 41%.

    Leader Approval Ratings
    Theresa May’s personal ratings continue to slowly improve while Jeremy Corbyn’s steadily decline. Theresa May’s approval rating may still be in negative territory (-11%), but it has improved by six points since last month when she was on -17%. Conversely, Jeremy Corbyn’s net ratings have slipped from -5 to -7%.

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-12th-september-2017/

    Crossover on it's way
    We are believing polls again now are we?
    There does seem to be a remarkable consistency in them recently

    The country is split between anti-Tory and anti-Labour. Opinion is divorced from events. All polls are consistent in showing almost no shifts since the election. It's hard to see how that changes.

    It will change as we get closer to March 2019 but at present I think there is a possibilty that TM may recover her position but not sufficient to lead into the 2022 GE

    I suspect there'll be bigger shifts post-Brexit. A cliff-edge, no surrender departure departure might give the Tories a brief poll boost, but as the smart ones clearly know that will not be sustainable.

    The new Tory leader would call a general election soon after Brexit. That is how Boris can win, longer term though after that it will be more difficult for the Tories especially if Labour then get a more moderate leader post a Corbyn defeat

    If the Tories win the next election on the back of waving the Union Jack after taking us off the cliff - and I agree that is very possible - then the identity of the next Labour leader will be largely irrelevant. Whoever it is will become Prime Minister and govern for a very long time as the Tories will be finished as a serious political force for a generation at least.

    If the Tories win the next general election Corbyn would probably resign though and a more moderate leader may then replace him, Umunna, Cooper etc. You are right that the last time the Tories won most seats 4 general elections in a row they were out for 13 years after losing the next general election
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,525

    What a start to the Grand Prix - carnage

    Ferrari inspired by the Chuckle Brothers it would seem!
  • The public mood for the first time in my memory is moving leftwards. You might be right, the Tories might find a way of riding it. But it won't fall into their lap.

    Yep. The Tories ceding ground to Labour on certain issues just gives Labour's message more credence and Corbyn more credibility - making it harder for them to critique his overall agenda and depict him as extreme. Corbyn has unbelievably managed to move much of the debate onto Labour's territory in a way someone like Tony Blair did not to be quite frank. Blair instead moved to the Tories territory on many issues.
    Corbyn will always come under attack for his hard left policies and moderating Corbyn's extremes is good politics and will be recognized as fair to the tax payer
    Corbyn has been relentlessly attacked by the media and the Tories for a good while now, and it didn't stop what happened in June. The voters who the Tories need to win over don't pay attention to the Tory Press and the Conservatives are undermining their image with their incompetence now. Why would any of Corbyn's 2017 voters listen to what an incompetence government has to say?

    I doubt that those who didn't vote Tory in 2017 will see the government as 'moderating' Corbyn's extremes. Many of those who voted for Corbyn are tax payers - and it is them which voted for Corbyn's manifesto promising to scrap tuition fees and it is many of them who don't want their kids coming out of uni with debt.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    This is a great article and sets up a question that no one really knows the answer to. Here is the perspective from my small technology business with about 50 employees. There are few skilled brits available for hire and almost no men. Our two recent skilled hires were from Greece and Brazil. The skill base of school leavers is dire as they don't even have basic knowledge like how to clean or cook. Their work effort is weak but they need jobs to survive.

    Implementing computer systems to get the productivity gains we need is hard. Computer staff are expensive and many of our managers struggle to use computers correctly.

    In our industry we compete with 2 large global multinationals. They soak up the uk talent but often send them abroad. They are not however investing in uk production.

    Overall we have a very fluid economy that blows with the wind. This is both a strength and a potential weakness. Political input will have unintended consequences which no one can predict. My problem with brexit is not I love Europe or where rules are made but my lack of trust with our politicians not to mess it up.

    There is a massive shortage of programmers and other skilled IT people, even with free movement. Once that ends, it will put a lot of tech-based UK businesses in very serious trouble - especially the smaller ones.

    It is already happening. We have moved some of our work abroad because of it. Being in database design it is easy to export the work using a development server in our own offices.

    The quality of recent UK Comp.Sci graduates we interviewed is dire
    "The quality of recent UK Comp.Sci graduates we interviewed is dire"

    In what respect?
    They appear to have very, very little practical experience in areas where they should have some. Almost none of them seem to have any disciplined approach to coding, software development or problem analysis. "Agile" is the rage and seems to mean (to them) "keep running it until it works then stick it live".

    We tried retraining a couple in-house but they lacked fundamental basics and just programmed themselves into holes that they they spent days digging themselves out of to deliver poor, unreliable solutions. When we showed them what they should have done they were baffled.

    Oddly enough, the very best trainee we had through the door was a 17 year old that we took on a A-level placement scheme, but he did not want to work in IT, he wanted to go to do a Business degree. He was streets ahead of the graduates.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681

    The public mood for the first time in my memory is moving leftwards. You might be right, the Tories might find a way of riding it. But it won't fall into their lap.

    Yep. The Tories ceding ground to Labour on certain issues just gives Labour's message more credence and Corbyn more credibility - making it harder for them to critique his overall agenda and depict him as extreme. Corbyn has unbelievably managed to move much of the debate onto Labour's territory in a way someone like Tony Blair did not to be quite frank. Blair instead moved to the Tories territory on many issues.
    Corbyn will always come under attack for his hard left policies and moderating Corbyn's extremes is good politics and will be recognized as fair to the tax payer
    Corbyn has been relentlessly attacked by the media and the Tories for a good while now, and it didn't stop what happened in June. The voters who the Tories need to win over don't pay attention to the Tory Press and the Conservatives are undermining their image with their incompetence now. Why would any of Corbyn's 2017 voters listen to what an incompetence government has to say?

    I doubt that those who didn't vote Tory in 2017 will see the government as 'moderating' Corbyn's extremes. Many of those who voted for Corbyn are tax payers - and it is them which voted for Corbyn's manifesto promising to scrap tuition fees and it is many of them who don't want their kids coming out of uni with debt.
    The Tories don't need to win over any voters, just hold all those who voted for them in June as they currently have a majority with DUP support. It is Corbyn who needs to win Tory voters to get Labour as largest party let alone win a majority.
This discussion has been closed.