In a few weeks' time the Germans might wish they had first past the post.
Why? They have had years and years of coalitions at national and local level. It doesn't seem to have harmed them. If a black, green yellow coalition is required by the numbers, then that will happen. It is how things are done.
There may be a black yellow coalition there won't be one including the Greens as the CSU won't have it, confidence and supply at best
Not entirely convinced by that. The German Greens are not our Greens. They support Merkel on many issues. UK Greens are more like Die Linke.
Yes but there is no way the CSU would agree to a deal with the Greens ahead of the AfD, especially as their conservative base in Bavaria would erupt. A minority government is more likely than a full coalition with the Greens
Any deal with AfD would eliminate the FDP from coalition as well as splitting the CDU. Merkel would not contemplate it given their attitude to her and her policies. Dare say much of Bavaria would erupt too.
' Work to bring HS2 to Sheffield could leave commuters facing more than five years of disruption, according to a presentation seen by the BBC.
According to the PowerPoint presentation, provided as part of a Freedom of Information request, the "station footprint would expand beyond current boundary to encroach the tram and road network".
It adds: "Such an outcome is anticipated to drive infrastructure costs and lead to disruption of at least five years, requiring reconfiguration of both tram and road networks."
The documents also suggests that to make way for HS2 one train an hour could be removed from the Dearne Valley line and impact on journey times between Sheffield and Leeds. '
In a few weeks' time the Germans might wish they had first past the post.
Why? They have had years and years of coalitions at national and local level. It doesn't seem to have harmed them. If a black, green yellow coalition is required by the numbers, then that will happen. It is how things are done.
There may be a black yellow coalition there won't be one including the Greens as the CSU won't have it, confidence and supply at best
Not entirely convinced by that. The German Greens are not our Greens. They support Merkel on many issues. UK Greens are more like Die Linke.
Yes but there is no way the CSU would agree to a deal with the Greens ahead of the AfD, especially as their conservative base in Bavaria would erupt. A minority government is more likely than a full coalition with the Greens
This is just wrong. The Merkel and the CDU have said that they will never form a coalition which includes the AfD
In a few weeks' time the Germans might wish they had first past the post.
Why? They have had years and years of coalitions at national and local level. It doesn't seem to have harmed them. If a black, green yellow coalition is required by the numbers, then that will happen. It is how things are done.
There may be a black yellow coalition there won't be one including the Greens as the CSU won't have it, confidence and supply at best
Not entirely convinced by that. The German Greens are not our Greens. They support Merkel on many issues. UK Greens are more like Die Linke.
Yes but there is no way the CSU would agree to a deal with the Greens ahead of the AfD, especially as their conservative base in Bavaria would erupt. A minority government is more likely than a full coalition with the Greens
Any deal with AfD would eliminate the FDP from coalition as well as splitting the CDU. Merkel would not contemplate it given their attitude to her and her policies. Dare say much of Bavaria would erupt too.
I did not say there would be a deal with the AfD instead, just a CDU/CSU minority government is more likely than any coalition deal with the Greens
In a few weeks' time the Germans might wish they had first past the post.
Why? They have had years and years of coalitions at national and local level. It doesn't seem to have harmed them. If a black, green yellow coalition is required by the numbers, then that will happen. It is how things are done.
There may be a black yellow coalition there won't be one including the Greens as the CSU won't have it, confidence and supply at best
If there was ever a time in the Bundestag for a confidence and supply government it was in 2013 when CDU were 5 seats short of 50%.
In Germany they just don't even consider a minority government.
In a few weeks' time the Germans might wish they had first past the post.
Why? They have had years and years of coalitions at national and local level. It doesn't seem to have harmed them. If a black, green yellow coalition is required by the numbers, then that will happen. It is how things are done.
There may be a black yellow coalition there won't be one including the Greens as the CSU won't have it, confidence and supply at best
Not entirely convinced by that. The German Greens are not our Greens. They support Merkel on many issues. UK Greens are more like Die Linke.
Yes but there is no way the CSU would agree to a deal with the Greens ahead of the AfD, especially as their conservative base in Bavaria would erupt. A minority government is more likely than a full coalition with the Greens
You seem to have missed the extent to which the AfD has changed. Four years ago, it was run by the former MD of IBM in Germany. Its platform was that the Euro didn't work for Germany because Germany was on the hook for the debts of the Greeks (and others). Now, this was in breach of the cold war consensus on Europe in Germany, but it was certainly a respectable party that grouped with the Conservatives in the European Parliament. This AfD was a natural ally of the CSU (who are the most Eurosceptic of the mainstream German parties)
Two years ago the leadership of the AfD changed and Frauke Petry took over. She took the party in an anti-Muslim direction, calling for Minarets to be banned. Under her watch AfD spokesman Björn Höcke has called for the holocaust monument in Berlin to be removed calling it a "monument of shame".
In 2013, when the AfD was a "Euro"-sceptic party, it didn't stand in Bavaria. In 2018, now it is more an anti-Muslim party, it will be standing.
Under the current AfD leadership, they are very much "beyond the pail" for the German political establishment, in a way that simply wasn't the case five years ago. I will offer you generous odds on them being in a coalition following the elections this year if you like.
Under the current AfD leadership, they are very much "beyond the pail" for the German political establishment, in a way that simply wasn't the case five years ago. I will offer you generous odds on them being in a coalition following the elections this year if you like.
You beat me to it. The AfD are now outside the spectrum of acceptable politics and the CSU would choose the Greens over them every day of the week.
If there are some surprises with the minor parties underperforming, the arithmetic could suddenly look very different.
So did the CDU/CSU get as many seats as they did because the FDP and the AFD just missed the 5% threshold?
The unusual thing with the 2013 election was that almost 15% of the vote went to parties who didn't enter the Bundestag, meaning that the four parties that did, got a much bigger proportion of seats than their vote share.
My dad has just asked, "what would happen in Germany if no party got more than 5% of the vote?"
Not sure. They do have FPTP constituencies like us. They make up the proportions by a list system. If no party got the threshold I would suggest a political and constitutional crisis would have already happened.
Under the current AfD leadership, they are very much "beyond the pail" for the German political establishment, in a way that simply wasn't the case five years ago. I will offer you generous odds on them being in a coalition following the elections this year if you like.
You beat me to it. The AfD are now outside the spectrum of acceptable politics and the CSU would choose the Greens over them every day of the week.
The CSU will choose neither, they are not going to lose half their voters in Bavaria to the AfD to do a coalition with the Greens
If there are some surprises with the minor parties underperforming, the arithmetic could suddenly look very different.
Even those final 2013 polls had the CDU polling higher then they are now and the AfD are polling significantly higher than they were then
Exactly. There just aren't big surprises in German national elections because of the second vote being proportional. Four years ago everyone knew that the FDP were very close to the 5% entry barrier. This time the FDP and Afd are polling well above the 5% mark.
Repeat, the polls won't be exact, but there will be no surprises.
In a few weeks' time the Germans might wish they had first past the post.
Why? They have had years and years of coalitions at national and local level. It doesn't seem to have harmed them. If a black, green yellow coalition is required by the numbers, then that will happen. It is how things are done.
There may be a black yellow coalition there won't be one including the Greens as the CSU won't have it, confidence and supply at best
If there was ever a time in the Bundestag for a confidence and supply government it was in 2013 when CDU were 5 seats short of 50%.
In Germany they just don't even consider a minority government.
If not it will be another CDU SPD grand coalition once all other options have been exhausted
In a few weeks' time the Germans might wish they had first past the post.
Why? They have had years and years of coalitions at national and local level. It doesn't seem to have harmed them. If a black, green yellow coalition is required by the numbers, then that will happen. It is how things are done.
There may be a black yellow coalition there won't be one including the Greens as the CSU won't have it, confidence and supply at best
If there was ever a time in the Bundestag for a confidence and supply government it was in 2013 when CDU were 5 seats short of 50%.
In Germany they just don't even consider a minority government.
I'll admit to having never paid too much attention to German politics, but looking at the results it seems odd that they didn't just go it alone. They'd probably have formed a coalition even if they had won a majority!
If there are some surprises with the minor parties underperforming, the arithmetic could suddenly look very different.
So did the CDU/CSU get as many seats as they did because the FDP and the AFD just missed the 5% threshold?
The unusual thing with the 2013 election was that almost 15% of the vote went to parties who didn't enter the Bundestag, meaning that the four parties that did, got a much bigger proportion of seats than their vote share.
Yes, and I'm guessing it's created a vacuum with no real opposition. That will definitely change after next Sunday.
In a few weeks' time the Germans might wish they had first past the post.
I'm guessing you don't talk politics with any Germans!
Okay, so I get they like consensual politics and I can understand that. My biggest problem with PR is that it can lead to perpetual governments that you can't get rid of. Of course, eventually people start looking at other options. The SPD would be mad to go in with the CDU/CSU even if they think they are doing the right thing by the country.
In a few weeks' time the Germans might wish they had first past the post.
Why? They have had years and years of coalitions at national and local level. It doesn't seem to have harmed them. If a black, green yellow coalition is required by the numbers, then that will happen. It is how things are done.
There may be a black yellow coalition there won't be one including the Greens as the CSU won't have it, confidence and supply at best
Not entirely convinced by that. The German Greens are not our Greens. They support Merkel on many issues. UK Greens are more like Die Linke.
Yes but there is no way the CSU would agree to a deal with the Greens ahead of the AfD, especially as their conservative base in Bavaria would erupt. A minority government is more likely than a full coalition with the Greens
You seem to have missed the extent to which the AfD has changed. Four years ago, it was run by the former MD of IBM in Germany. Its platform was that the Euro didn't work for Germany because Germany was on the hook for the debts of the Greeks (and others). Now, this was in breach of the cold war consensus on Europe in Germany, but it was certainly a respectable party that grouped with the Conservatives in the European Parliament. This AfD was a natural ally of the CSU (who are the most Eurosceptic of the mainstream German parties)
Two years ago the leadership of the AfD changed and Frauke Petry took over. She took the party in an anti-Muslim direction, calling for Minarets to be banned. Under her watch AfD spokesman Björn Höcke has called for the holocaust monument in Berlin to be removed calling it a "monument of shame".
In 2013, when the AfD was a "Euro"-sceptic party, it didn't stand in Bavaria. In 2018, now it is more an anti-Muslim party, it will be standing.
Under the current AfD leadership, they are very much "beyond the pail" for the German political establishment, in a way that simply wasn't the case five years ago. I will offer you generous odds on them being in a coalition following the elections this year if you like.
The CSU is not exactly pro immigration themselves, Edmund Stoiber the CSU's chairman last September said 'It was not enough to criticise the AfD's voters, he argued - the CDU had to understand why people were losing faith in its policies. Mr Stoiber called for a limit on the number of people entering Germany.'
If there are some surprises with the minor parties underperforming, the arithmetic could suddenly look very different.
So did the CDU/CSU get as many seats as they did because the FDP and the AFD just missed the 5% threshold?
Yes.
Well I think one thing is for sure. The government will lose seats. Lots of them.
"Losing seats" is not the same as it is in Britain. For a start the number of MPs in the Bundestag will not be known until late into Sunday evening due to the "Ausgleichmandat" . Put it this way, it is possible for a party to "lose seats" but increase their proportion of seats. It is also not possible in Germany to have a "Portillo Moment" because if a minister loses their direct manddate, then they will get in to parliament via the "second votes".
But in essence you are right, the CDU/CSU+SDP will have a lower proportion of members, in fact the FDP only need to get 0.3 more percentage points compared with last time in order for this to be inevitable.
If there are some surprises with the minor parties underperforming, the arithmetic could suddenly look very different.
Even those final 2013 polls had the CDU polling higher then they are now and the AfD are polling significantly higher than they were then
Exactly. There just aren't big surprises in German national elections because of the second vote being proportional. Four years ago everyone knew that the FDP were very close to the 5% entry barrier. This time the FDP and Afd are polling well above the 5% mark.
Repeat, the polls won't be exact, but there will be no surprises.
In a few weeks' time the Germans might wish they had first past the post.
Why? They have had years and years of coalitions at national and local level. It doesn't seem to have harmed them. If a black, green yellow coalition is required by the numbers, then that will happen. It is how things are done.
There may be a black yellow coalition there won't be one including the Greens as the CSU won't have it, confidence and supply at best
Not entirely convinced by that. The German Greens are not our Greens. They support Merkel on many issues. UK Greens are more like Die Linke.
Yes but there is no way the CSU would agree to a deal with the Greens ahead of the AfD, especially as their conservative base in Bavaria would erupt. A minority government is more likely than a full coalition with the Greens
You seem to have missed the extent to which the AfD has changed. Four years ago, it was run by the former MD of IBM in Germany. Its platform was that the Euro didn't work for Germany because Germany was on the hook for the debts of the Greeks (and others). Now, this was in breach of the cold war consensus on Europe in Germany, but it was certainly a respectable party that grouped with the Conservatives in the European Parliament. This AfD was a natural ally of the CSU (who are the most Eurosceptic of the mainstream German parties)
Two years ago the leadership of the AfD changed and Frauke Petry took over. She took the party in an anti-Muslim direction, calling for Minarets to be banned. Under her watch AfD spokesman Björn Höcke has called for the holocaust monument in Berlin to be removed calling it a "monument of shame".
In 2013, when the AfD was a "Euro"-sceptic party, it didn't stand in Bavaria. In 2018, now it is more an anti-Muslim party, it will be standing.
Under the current AfD leadership, they are very much "beyond the pail" for the German political establishment, in a way that simply wasn't the case five years ago. I will offer you generous odds on them being in a coalition following the elections this year if you like.
Beyond the Pale - the Pale was Dublin's immediate hinterland and "beyond" were assorted unwashed Irishmen
He says that the Greens wouldn't be his ideal partner but the election results determine the coalitions.
Never mind ideal he says the Greens are 'not pleasant partners' on a literal translation from German into English. His party membership will be even more vociferous
What does Angela Merkel have to do to put the Germans off? Be caught in flagrante delicto with Guy Verhofstadht?
If I was a German I'd probably vote for Merkel. She's probably the best leader in the free world right now.
Sure she's not perfect but many of the reasons she's unpopular outside of Germany are because of good things for Germany. Take the way she dealt with Greek crisis, for all the talk of "solidarity" she looked after German interests first and foremost.
I was talking to a German friend who follows politics closely. FWIW he was confident the SPD would agree a coalition with the CDU if no viable alternative was available. It is expected of them and politicians prefer to be in government than not to be, so they can rationalise it. The other person at our table went along with his analysis.
If there is another grand coalition, the other parties will continue to grow at the expense of the SPD. Come the next election, I doubt that the grand coalition will be a possibility.
If all parties are working off the same principle it becomes a business transaction. If there's no viable alternative to an SPD / CDU coalition, the SPD can extract a higher price for their agreement in terms of their programme than, say, the FDP could. The CDU would be willing to pay that price to get a viable government, but if the CDU had alternatives they wouldn't be willing. Come the next election it would be a new arrangement, depending on how the votes fell out.
The unusual thing with the 2013 election was that almost 15% of the vote went to parties who didn't enter the Bundestag, meaning that the four parties that did, got a much bigger proportion of seats than their vote share.
Yes, and I'm guessing it's created a vacuum with no real opposition. That will definitely change after next Sunday.
Although there is no shadow cabinet and no former leader of the opposition, the parliament still needs the opposition parties. And yes many people have criticised this parliament because the opposition was so weak in %age terms, although Die Like and die Grünen have often put forward good counter arguments. The "marriage for everyone" bill was heavily pushed by the green party.
There was some time in the sixties there was a Grand Coalition when the only opposition was the FDP, who had only 5% or so of the seats so the government was 95% of parliament!
In a few weeks' time the Germans might wish they had first past the post.
I'm guessing you don't talk politics with any Germans!
Okay, so I get they like consensual politics and I can understand that. My biggest problem with PR is that it can lead to perpetual governments that you can't get rid of. Of course, eventually people start looking at other options. The SPD would be mad to go in with the CDU/CSU even if they think they are doing the right thing by the country.
I personally thought that the SPD should not have formed a grand coalition last time but they have managed to get some important bills through (like the minimum wage) and provided good support for Merkel's stance in the Refugee Crisis, when the CSU and some of the CDU were very critical of her.
I was talking to a German friend who follows politics closely. FWIW he was confident the SPD would agree a coalition with the CDU if no viable alternative was available. It is expected of them and politicians prefer to be in government than not to be, so they can rationalise it. The other person at our table went along with his analysis.
If there is another grand coalition, the other parties will continue to grow at the expense of the SPD. Come the next election, I doubt that the grand coalition will be a possibility.
If all parties are working off the same principle it becomes a business transaction. If there's no viable alternative to an SPD / CDU coalition, the SPD can extract a higher price for their agreement in terms of their programme than, say, the FDP could. The CDU would be willing to pay that price to get a viable government, but if the CDU had alternatives they wouldn't be willing. Come the next election it would be a new arrangement, depending on how the votes fell out.
I'm pretty sure the SPD would prefer opposition if it is possible. A leader could establish a national profile for 4 years outside government, ready to face probably not Merkel in 2021. That is why I lean towards a CSU/FDP or Jamaica coalition. However, they are German and will go with the numbers.
What does Angela Merkel have to do to put the Germans off? Be caught in flagrante delicto with Guy Verhofstadht?
If I was a German I'd probably vote for Merkel. She's probably the best leader in the free world right now.
Sure she's not perfect but many of the reasons she's unpopular outside of Germany are because of good things for Germany. Take the way she dealt with Greek crisis, for all the talk of "solidarity" she looked after German interests first and foremost.
She'd have lost my vote over her migration stupidity.
I was talking to a German friend who follows politics closely. FWIW he was confident the SPD would agree a coalition with the CDU if no viable alternative was available. It is expected of them and politicians prefer to be in government than not to be, so they can rationalise it. The other person at our table went along with his analysis.
If there is another grand coalition, the other parties will continue to grow at the expense of the SPD. Come the next election, I doubt that the grand coalition will be a possibility.
If all parties are working off the same principle it becomes a business transaction. If there's no viable alternative to an SPD / CDU coalition, the SPD can extract a higher price for their agreement in terms of their programme than, say, the FDP could. The CDU would be willing to pay that price to get a viable government, but if the CDU had alternatives they wouldn't be willing. Come the next election it would be a new arrangement, depending on how the votes fell out.
I'm pretty sure the SPD would prefer opposition if it is possible. A leader could establish a national profile for 4 years outside government, ready to face probably not Merkel in 2021. That is why I lean towards a CSU/FDP or Jamaica coalition. However, they are German and will go with the numbers.
Except that a Kanzlerkandidat is only chosen 8 months before the election, just like Schulz took over from Gabriel in January
I was talking to a German friend who follows politics closely. FWIW he was confident the SPD would agree a coalition with the CDU if no viable alternative was available. It is expected of them and politicians prefer to be in government than not to be, so they can rationalise it. The other person at our table went along with his analysis.
If there is another grand coalition, the other parties will continue to grow at the expense of the SPD. Come the next election, I doubt that the grand coalition will be a possibility.
If all parties are working off the same principle it becomes a business transaction. If there's no viable alternative to an SPD / CDU coalition, the SPD can extract a higher price for their agreement in terms of their programme than, say, the FDP could. The CDU would be willing to pay that price to get a viable government, but if the CDU had alternatives they wouldn't be willing. Come the next election it would be a new arrangement, depending on how the votes fell out.
I'm pretty sure the SPD would prefer opposition if it is possible. A leader could establish a national profile for 4 years outside government, ready to face probably not Merkel in 2021. That is why I lean towards a CSU/FDP or Jamaica coalition. However, they are German and will go with the numbers.
Except that a Kanzlerkandidat is only chosen 8 months before the election, just like Schulz took over from Gabriel in January
Indeed. But didn't they have to draft Schulz in from Brussels? A period of opposition would allow more candidates to establish themselves without having to support the government.
If it is true and Boris demands the 10 billion for the NHS he will at a stroke gain immense support in the UK, split the party, and probably result in WTO rules
Foreigners could be prevented from buying homes in Britain
“It is often pointed out that the price of housing in certain parts of London may be increased by buyers from overseas. But there is no point in putting any kind of tax on foreign buyers, because the inhabitants of 27 other countries cannot legally be treated as foreign.”
My dad has just asked, "what would happen in Germany if no party got more than 5% of the vote?"
Not sure. They do have FPTP constituencies like us. They make up the proportions by a list system. If no party got the threshold I would suggest a political and constitutional crisis would have already happened.
That's a great theoretical question! The logical answer would be that yes all directly elected MPs would take their seat but none via the second vote. A candidate who wins a constituency still gets to sit in the Bundestag even if the party doesn't get 5%
May was minded to fold and offer a gilt edged olive branch to the EU. Boris is not so minded and has called foul. Who is right? Boris is certainly rolling the dice in a way that runs contrary to May's caution.
'The Foreign Secretary believes the UK must slash payments to Brussels as soon as we leave.'He wants the Government to live up to the ‘Vote Leave’ promise of finding £350 million a week for the NHS instead, James Forsyth reveals in his Sun column today. The revelation follows reports the PM will offer to maintain our annual £10 billion-a-year payments to the European Commission during a two or three year ‘transition’ phase with the EU.
A transition or ‘bridging’ phase would ensure Britain maintains close-to-existing relationships with the EU between Brexit and the date at which a new trade deal comes into force.'
So he wants a minimal transition period with the money saved going to the NHS, so more money for the NHS and a quick end to free movement is his platform
Sacked in the morning, he's getting sacked in the morning...
He'll hand in his resignation before they can sack him surely
I think being fired is a better look for Boris. Fought valiantly for what he believes in only to forced out by a weak prime minister who is surrendering Blighty's treasure to the perfidious French.
Sacked in the morning, he's getting sacked in the morning...
He'll hand in his resignation before they can sack him surely
I think being fired is a better look for Boris. Fought valiantly for what he believes in only to forced out by a weak prime minister who is surrendering Blighty's treasure to the perfidious French.
I was talking to a German friend who follows politics closely. FWIW he was confident the SPD would agree a coalition with the CDU if no viable alternative was available. It is expected of them and politicians prefer to be in government than not to be, so they can rationalise it. The other person at our table went along with his analysis.
If there is another grand coalition, the other parties will continue to grow at the expense of the SPD. Come the next election, I doubt that the grand coalition will be a possibility.
If all parties are working off the same principle it becomes a business transaction. If there's no viable alternative to an SPD / CDU coalition, the SPD can extract a higher price for their agreement in terms of their programme than, say, the FDP could. The CDU would be willing to pay that price to get a viable government, but if the CDU had alternatives they wouldn't be willing. Come the next election it would be a new arrangement, depending on how the votes fell out.
I'm pretty sure the SPD would prefer opposition if it is possible. A leader could establish a national profile for 4 years outside government, ready to face probably not Merkel in 2021. That is why I lean towards a CSU/FDP or Jamaica coalition. However, they are German and will go with the numbers.
Except that a Kanzlerkandidat is only chosen 8 months before the election, just like Schulz took over from Gabriel in January
Indeed. But didn't they have to draft Schulz in from Brussels? A period of opposition would allow more candidates to establish themselves without having to support the government.
Yes I think so too, but I too am used to the British system of "leader of the opposition". In Germany the political parties have leaders but they might or might not be Kanzlerkandidat and do not even have to be in the Bundestag. For Example Horst Seehofer is leader of the CSU but is Minister President of Bavaria not leader of the Bundestag Faction.
I would have thought that allowing a leader to pressure the chancellor for 3 and a half years would be a great chance to maximise the chances at the next election.
I'd assumed the Boris stuff was just a liberal Remainer fantasy. Is he really going to bring down another Conservative PM by relitigating the Referendum via Soft via Hard Brexit ? And if he succeeds is he really going to deliver a WTO Brexit and serve as PM for nearly 5 years on the basis of May's lost majority and subsequent DUP deal ? And if not are we really going to have another General Election in 2018 to deliver him a mandate for that ? And if we did how do know his poll numbers wouldn't be as ephemeral as May's ? And so on and so on. The Conservative Party is discovering that Brexit is like hard drive. You have to take escalating amounts of it to get the same high. Untill your body and mind collapse under the strain.
More likely he's playing to the gallery for a 2019 leadership election after May has carried the can for the inevitable Brexit climb down. But it's incredibly dangerous stuff which could get out of control.
I never, ever thought I would say it but thank God for the Corbyn surge. God alone knows what this shower would have been like with a majority. The prospect of 5years of the ghastly McDonell/Corbyn being less damaging than a Tory government should be absurd but it appears to be where we are. Buckle up.
Comments
In Germany they just don't even consider a minority government.
Two years ago the leadership of the AfD changed and Frauke Petry took over. She took the party in an anti-Muslim direction, calling for Minarets to be banned. Under her watch AfD spokesman Björn Höcke has called for the holocaust monument in Berlin to be removed calling it a "monument of shame".
In 2013, when the AfD was a "Euro"-sceptic party, it didn't stand in Bavaria. In 2018, now it is more an anti-Muslim party, it will be standing.
Under the current AfD leadership, they are very much "beyond the pail" for the German political establishment, in a way that simply wasn't the case five years ago. I will offer you generous odds on them being in a coalition following the elections this year if you like.
Repeat, the polls won't be exact, but there will be no surprises.
Mr Stoiber called for a limit on the number of people entering Germany.'
The CSU will not do a coalition with the AfD no but they certainly will not do one with the Greens either
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37274222
Put it this way, it is possible for a party to "lose seats" but increase their proportion of seats.
It is also not possible in Germany to have a "Portillo Moment" because if a minister loses their direct manddate, then they will get in to parliament via the "second votes".
But in essence you are right, the CDU/CSU+SDP will have a lower proportion of members, in fact the FDP only need to get 0.3 more percentage points compared with last time in order for this to be inevitable.
He says that the Greens wouldn't be his ideal partner but the election results determine the coalitions.
UK terror threat raised from severe to critical
Sure she's not perfect but many of the reasons she's unpopular outside of Germany are because of good things for Germany. Take the way she dealt with Greek crisis, for all the talk of "solidarity" she looked after German interests first and foremost.
'Uninformed information on social media and by journalist has been unhelpful in the investigation'
Some of the so called experts put forward by the broadcast media and indeed their presenters have just been pure unadulterated speculation
https://twitter.com/GregHands/status/908593181004111872
There was some time in the sixties there was a Grand Coalition when the only opposition was the FDP, who had only 5% or so of the seats so the government was 95% of parliament! I personally thought that the SPD should not have formed a grand coalition last time but they have managed to get some important bills through (like the minimum wage) and provided good support for Merkel's stance in the Refugee Crisis, when the CSU and some of the CDU were very critical of her.
https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/908786250282233856
However, they are German and will go with the numbers.
When an attacker on a 100% civilian target decides they don't want to die, you have a more possibilities to worry about. More devices, more friends.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/908788005565059073
Just to let you know I'm gonna call TSE - "RIGHT NOW" - To find out where the hell he gets his fashion sense from.
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/908790083758776320
The day after I say don't take the 8/1 on him as next out of the cabinet he does this.
He's a bellend.
Handbags at dawn for Tim and Harry?
And laid a significant amount of JRM @ ~10
Both trading bets, with the intention of laying off during/shortly after conference.
Still £73 available to lay JRM @ 12.5 if anyone wants to follow me in.
Interesting
“It is often pointed out that the price of housing in certain parts of London may be increased by buyers from overseas. But there is no point in putting any kind of tax on foreign buyers, because the inhabitants of 27 other countries cannot legally be treated as foreign.”
He wants to be fired and then launch a leadership challenge from the back benches?
https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/908792725293731841
The revelation follows reports the PM will offer to maintain our annual £10 billion-a-year payments to the European Commission during a two or three year ‘transition’ phase with the EU.
A transition or ‘bridging’ phase would ensure Britain maintains close-to-existing relationships with the
EU between Brexit and the date at which a new trade deal comes into force.'
So he wants a minimal transition period with the money saved going to the NHS, so more money for the NHS and a quick end to free movement is his platform
Scott_P will explode.
NEW THREAD
I would have thought that allowing a leader to pressure the chancellor for 3 and a half years would be a great chance to maximise the chances at the next election.
More likely he's playing to the gallery for a 2019 leadership election after May has carried the can for the inevitable Brexit climb down. But it's incredibly dangerous stuff which could get out of control.
I never, ever thought I would say it but thank God for the Corbyn surge. God alone knows what this shower would have been like with a majority. The prospect of 5years of the ghastly McDonell/Corbyn being less damaging than a Tory government should be absurd but it appears to be where we are. Buckle up.