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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : September 14th 2017
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And thanks, Harry.
This might amuse, or act as a cautionary tale on the perils of predictions about rising political stars.
Should Labour not be worried about this? The government is taking brick bats from remainers in the media every day, they are having even harsher swipes from Osborne, they seem in a muddle and to have very few ideas, the country is sick of austerity and wages are falling in real terms. If Labour can't build a substantial lead now, then when?
Corbyn loves campaigning, Mrs May doesn't.
At a brief glance, I'd guess the value is likely to be at the tails of the bell curve. Best bet is combining 0, 1-10 & 71 or more @ total odds of ~10/3.
Given that PP aren't interested in my business, I can't be arsed to check his twitter to do any more detailed analysis. So I could be wrong.
Labour's position is now far stronger than most people thought possible a few months ago.
Meanwhile the Tories sink ever deeper into the Brexit mire which will surely engulf them completely in the next couple of years.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/908683293658361856
Anybody who really believes only the rich will see their taxes and cost of living rise under chairman corbyn is bonkers.
But the home office wants everyone entering the UK to have to show a passport. These two stances are incompatible.
The BBC is removing university degrees and school education from the CVs of potential new recruits and may set targets regarding the socioeconomic class of its workforce after new internal findings suggested the broadcaster is far too posh.
The problem is that I don't think that many of Corbyn's plans will 'improve' public services - and I don't think he is actually interested in really improving them. As New Labour found, throwing money at a problem does not necessarily lead to improvements.
(*) Then again, we're in a fortunate position - whilst we're not rich, neither are we JAMs.
I feel like an African-American in Jim Crow Alabama.
"Massive boost for Sturgeon as Survation confirm SNP have staggeringly sizeable Scottish Parliament lead"
You can tell when the SNP have a huge poll lead. Carlotta resorts to Daisley (unionist hack Mail) to attack Sturgeon and Deerin (unionist hack ex Mail) to attack Salmond!
I would have thought with all the resources open to the Tory research department they could have dug up something more original!
Labour does need to widen the debate onto other issues, which is why Corbyn has mostly raised other things at PMQs, and I think people have noticed the public sector pay freeze and vaguely agree with Labour on that. But otherwise it's proving hard to change the subject, and will continue like that at least till the conferences.
at this rate we will just kick the can down the road for 20 years and the generation which got stiffed with Osborne's folly will get stiffed again as they fund the write off
we need a retrospective tax of £10k on all people who had degrees prior to fees being introduced which will be trebled for Oxford PPEs
Of the whole list, "ear-rent" ("the figurative cost to a person of listening to trivial or incessant talk") is the one that stands out as being most useful and relevant to the internet and social media world - or indeed the world of corporate meetings.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41266000
SNPs fall from grace is staggering
Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.
F1: as predicted, by me, the performance of Red Bull might be the most interesting thing this weekend. Right now, they're looking rather quick.
Not having a go at the editorial line of the site at all, thankfully the bomber seems to have not caused fatalities. But we're getting used to these attacks now, a couple of years ago this would have been bigger news.
Of course there will be some loss of cash from interest and loan repayments not being made in future but quite a bit - perhaps all - of this could be recouped by going back to the old grant funding system for universities and capping student numbers as was the case before the fee system came in.
Here is the ABC of list voting and the Scottish Parliament.
It is pretty simple. With a 16 per cent lead the SNP would win the vast majority of FPP seats of the 72 up for grabs. Then on the list Labour comes into its own as do the Greens whose seats will all be on the list. On these figures the Tories would be lucky to take more than half a dozen FPP and get the rest on the list. The Liberals increase is all on the list and looks a bit dodgy in that they have never before outperformed on the list vote. It is fair to say that pollsters have never found it easy getting the list vote right.
For a mid term poll it is excellent news for the SNP - much better than Salmond polled in the run up to 2011 when he stormed to an overall majority on 45 per cent on the FPP vote. Admittedly he then fought a brilliant election campaign.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/09/11/eddie-izzard-could-give-up-comedy-to-become-first-transgender-mp/
Afternoon, Mr.D.
Are Ferrari really no faster than Mercedes here ?
While Merc are perhaps more competitive than forecast, I find that a little hard to believe (and Vettel had to abort his quick lap on the US tyres).
If Reds Bull were to go 1-2, Mercedes would probably be delighted.
Mr. B, the note I just made for the pre-qualifying article is that I think Vettel will be faster than Verstappen but perhaps not as fast as Ricciardo.
I would also be delighted with a Red Bull 1-2, as I've backed both each way for the win (Ricciardo layable at just under 4, but I'm not touching that just yet).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Sinclaire
He was great in Valkyrie.
Boris is also.more likely to be leading the Tories than May and he is probably the best campaigner the Tories have having won 2 London Mayoral elections and an EU referendum, Corbyn for all his gains still lost the last general election
That said, in his comedy heyday I saw him many times at ever-larger venues and remember sobbing with laughter and in danger of asphyxiation at his routines.
But you know better than the pollster that called the election right.
JosiasJessop said
'due process"? You're having a laugh. Due sodding process should have occurred decades ago when the alleged abuse was happening. Having it now is all well and good, but it doesn't account for the lives spoilt then and since.
In fact, time makes it harder to get any justice, as well as allowing more abuse to occur. It also means people who were abused got no help or closure.
And if you're asking me whether I believe these accusations about Smyllum, then yes, on the whole I do. There's too many voices speaking up about it, too much precedence proved in similar homes and institutions, and the hundreds of children buried in unmarked graves is a rather large pointer to the fact that things in the home were not exactly healthy. I might well be wrong in all this, and it will be interesting to see what the inquiry produces.
But taking the cases that have already been proved in the Catholic and protestant churches: the parallels with the abuse by Muslims in Rotherham, Rochdale et al is clear. In such cases, it was easier for the authorities (police, social services, the respective churches) to ignore abuse than to deal with it. As such, those authorities are as morally culpable for the abuse as the abuse'
I agree with that -and feel some empathy when recalling my own school experiences.
I attended a very strict Boys Grammar School from the mid 60s where there was great reliance on corporal punishment by the Headmaster - who held his position from 1958 to 1978. I was not a victim myself , but having consulted the Facebook pages of my old school I was very struck by the comments made there. 'He was a nasty man' , 'Feared but not respected' are but two examples, and several former pupils - now in the age range of early 50s to mid 70s - reported how they had been made to bleed and/or remained seriously bruised for 3 to 5 weeks following a beating. As someone who is partly legally trained, I suggested to them that they had not been punished - but physically abused. Even in the days when corporal punishment was lawful it had to be limited to 'reasonable chastisement', and it was clear to me that their experiences went well beyond that with the criminal offence of ABH under the Offences against the Person Act 1861 having been committed. Quite a heated exchange of views ensued on that public Facebook site - with some concurring with me whilst others sought to defend the Headmaster - who passed away in 2003. In the end, I suggested that those seeking to excuse the Headmaster were not so very different from those at the BBC who sought to cover up the actions of Jimmy Saville et al. As a result I was barred from the site - and this confirmed my suspicion that the local establishment is keen to keep such dirty linen very well hidden.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41207827
RIP.
https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/908712777245700096