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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s desire to fight the next election makes a challenge thi

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  • I don't see why it was Cameron & Osborne's.

    No-one talks of Blair & Brown's majority. They talk of Tony's big wins.


    Dave says he wouldn't be PM/won a majority in 2015 without George Osborne.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,767
    Surely the answer is that May knows she will go in 2019 but she can't say so - because if she did then the pressure would be for her to go now.

    Just as Cameron couldn't say he would go if he lost the EU Ref.

    And surely Con MPs (and indeed everyone else) know the above - and also know that May knows.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,811
    Sandpit said:

    Maybe do a compare and contrast - the gentleman prime minister who, when he realised his time was up, departed gracefully from the political stage and will see out his retirement in pace and comfort.

    And his Chancellor, who had to be pushed before he would jump, then decided to take a job as an editor purely to snipe at those who he thought wronged him, while having nothing constructive to say and edging closer every day to being as unhinged as James Chapman.

    I thought Osborne took the job as editor of the Standard because he fancied himself as a journalist and originally intended a career in journalism before moving into politics. He seems to be doing a good job as editor and is also enjoying it.

    Question. Does Osborne have any further hankerings after a government or Conservative Party role?


  • NEW THREAD

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    MikeL said:

    Surely the answer is that May knows she will go in 2019 but she can't say so - because if she did then the pressure would be for her to go now.

    Just as Cameron couldn't say he would go if he lost the EU Ref.

    And surely Con MPs (and indeed everyone else) know the above - and also know that May knows.

    Indeed. What else was she supposed to say?

    I think she’ll see the Brexit negotiations through and allow a contest over the summer of 2019.

    What’s keeping her safe is the lack of a single clearly supported successor and an unwillingness to disrupt the EU negotiations with a change of PM half way through.
  • chrisoxonchrisoxon Posts: 204
    FF43 said:

    We are no longer part of this club and they no longer care whether we think they are utter arseholes or not. It's business and it's all change.

    That's taking a rather short term view isn't it? The EU still has some cheerleaders in the UK who hope to someday return the UK to the club - that isn't going to happen if they're seen as the bad guys.

    If people think Brexit is going to be a disaster and that we will have to return to the EU with our tail between our legs the best strategy is simple.... just be silent and wait, let it happen on its own accord. Insulting leave voters and cheering whenever the UK suffers a setback in negotiations doesn't create converts to the cause, it strengthens the resolve of brexiteers and sows further division. You want people to sheepishly say "you were right" and then follow your original advice? Just sit still and wait for it all to unfold, and if it turns out you were wrong then you can be pleasantly surprised.

    TLDR; No one says thank you to arseholes who constantly try to rub their noses in it. Just wait it out if you have the courage of your convictions.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    “Journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed: everything else is public relations.”

    ― George Orwell
    Like.
  • FF43 said:

    It is not a fact. It is your opinion that I don't agree with. The EU is a multilateral body that has to take account of the interests of its members and works by consensus. Which is why there is horse-trading and you can avoid most, if not all, of the things you really dislike and have real influence as a member on the decisions that get taken.

    The EU doesn't have to take account of the interests of its ex-members, nor will it do so.
    Nor should it of course. But the idea that the EU was in any way a well adjusted and competent organisation that had the best interests of its members at heart is just risible. It was and is a project for centralising and controlling power in Europe and like all such projects it put its own best interests ahead of those of the member states and the citizens of those countries.

    And just as the EU doesn't have to take into account the interests of its ex-members, nor do we have to take into account its interests either.
  • And one reason why people like Corbyn and McDonnell are so sanguine about it.
    You say that as if it is a bad thing? Surely that is the essence of democracy. Unless of course you think legitimate left wing views ought not to be heard or allowed to command a majority.

    As someone who is economically right of centre and would oppose almost everything Corbyn would want to do, even I don't think they should be prevented if they win majority support. If the EU is simply a mechanism to prevent your opponents wining a fair election then that is yet another reason to leave.
  • It is nothing to do with Brexit. There is plenty of polling evidence before Brexit that Osborne was as toxic as polonium.

    Osborne lacks the easy charm of a Cameron. He lacks the vulnerability of a May. He lacks the clownishness of a Boris. He lacks the authenticity of a Corbyn. He lacks the passion of a Clegg.

    MoneySavingExpert’s Martin Lewis called Osborne's behaviour over student loans a mis-selling scandal as bad as PPI. He's right (& Lewis regularly outdistances all politicians in polls of who to trust). Osborne's behaviour over student loans was a significant reason why May lost her majority.

    Osborne is a man without qualities, except a callow & reptilian ruthlessness.
    Well said. Osborne's failings reach far back in time and it is only those who put party before country who seem willing to ignore them.
  • TOPPING said:

    I agree it won't be cataclysm or end of the world. I don't agree with your transformational change, however. It was just an opportunity to kick the establishment which they took.
    Membership of the EU was an absolute barrier to transformational change. Whether it happens or not now it at least has a chance which it didn't have before.
This discussion has been closed.