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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s desire to fight the next election makes a challenge thi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s desire to fight the next election makes a challenge this autumn more likely
.@nicholaswatt speaks to former Downing St adviser @CraigOliver100 about Theresa May's ambition to stay beyond the next election #newsnight pic.twitter.com/N1VnMGieoB
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I can't think of another candidate who wouldn't have at least half the population retching
She may not be a quitter but she is absolutely useless as a campaigning politician, truly spectacularly bad. I do not believe that the Tory party would want to risk another zombie campaign with May dodging debates, dodging the public, dodging questions and interviews and saying as little as possible. It may have worked in the Home Office but it does not work for a PM.
Huge british bomb ( 1.8 tonnes ) found in Frankfurt, 70k people evacuated
Should give bankers something to think about
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/rhein-main/frankfurt/frankfurt-steht-nach-bombenfund-im-westend-vor-groesster-evakuierung-15175578.html
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2017/08/30/01016-20170830ARTFIG00337-emmanuel-macron-souhaiterait-la-fin-du-mythe-de-l-universite-pour-tous.php
also unveiling his big labour refroms today
http://www.lefigaro.fr/social/2017/08/31/20011-20170831LIVWWW00030-en-direct-code-du-travail-syndicats-Muriel-Penicaud-Macron-patronat-medef-ordonnances-accords-entreprises.php
aux armes citoyens
The Donald targets Ireland
http://www.independent.ie/world-news/north-america/president-trump/donald-trump-to-lower-corporation-tax-to-15pc-to-compete-with-ireland-36086600.html
Hannover had to evacuate 50k people about 2 months ago when another ww2 bomb was discovered
however its not all one way, central birmingham was closed off in april when a german one was dug up
http://www.wwiiequipment.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=107:4000lb-high-capacity-bomb&catid=43:bombs&Itemid=60
From a party political point of view, of course she should carry on, and on. From the sake of
the country, though, she should go as soon as possible.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Slam_(bomb)
However, not many of them were used!
More seriously, I think her intention was to put the leadership issue to bed for the moment by saying she was staying. However, by doing it in this way she runs the risk of reigniting it instead. It was Thatcher's declaration that she wished to remain PM until 1995 that prompted Meyer to contest the leadership.
Particularly, given Davis is older than her, it gives him a major incentive to launch a challenge if he does want to be PM (not that I'm convinced he does).
Got to say I was astounded this was top story on ITV News last night. She never said what was attributed to her. May said she was not a quitter. And what was the alternative? Her authority is shaky at best anyway, announce her future departure and she may as well just resign.
She said she wasn't a quitter, not* that she would fight the next election as PM/Conservative leader.
*At least, not in any clip I saw.
Where's me coat?
He has a very interesting perspective being both an expert but also having a deep understanding of how government works from his time in DWP and Cabinet Office.
A few points:
His sense of the economic impact of Brexit (brackets are his comments):
Lower end - 0.1-0.2% lower GDP growth/year... (rounding error)
Higher end - 0.5% lower GDP growth/year... (noticeable but not the end of the world)
Both can be outweighed by other government policies...
He also says that no chance of a new immigration system in short-term (HO cannot deliver it), but he thinks there will be a significant falls in immigration well before then.
So Blair and Howard are the only figures to base such a supposition on, and both of them were unusual circumstances.
"Talking to Sky News, May was asked if she wanted to lead the Conservatives into another election. “Yes,” she replied. “I’m in this for the long term.”
One could argue that Blair's Iraq war was far worse than Suez and inflicted much more long-term damage. Perhaps the worst PM ever was Tony Blair.
I agree with Mike, my first response when I saw this news was she was wittingly or unwittingly bringing on an early contest.
http://www.historynet.com/the-miraculous-mosquito.htm
My main point stands, though, which is that if she said she wouldn't she might as well leave now.
Incidentally, for those gloomy about politics and the way things are run, in just over three weeks Sir Edric's Kingdom comes out, so you can cheer yourself up with some comedy [advisory warning: there are no safe spaces in Sir Edric's Kingdom]: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0757PMR7F/
Edited extra bit: Mr. Orphan, cheers for that post. Hmm.
Although the intelligentsia were quite a small group at the time, they are now much larger, and the Tories continue to struggle with them. That is how they ended up doing so badly in university seats. While you might argue there are other factors for that, Suez was the moment that cost them the benefit of the doubt in such circumstances. Ever since, this group has assumed the worst of them.
It may indeed be too early to say just how damaging Suez was for the Tories. But it surely isn't altogether a coinicdence how thin the talent on the front bench is right now - and has been for a very long time with rare exceptions.
TINA until Brexit is concluded.
Is there a market anywhere for it?
Whether she actually intends to or not is a different question.
Only a week ago - Mike ran a thread saying there was a plan for her to stand down once A50 period ends in March 2019. It's quite possible that both are true I think.
Don't see a constituency he wins, which is quite something.
I really can’t see TMay saying to the country ‘I’ve done it, now I’m going!"
The UK Universities were huge gainers from the EU. They were very successful in extracting research & development monies (one of the consequences of tuition fees, in fact, the UK universities are much better resourced than stay the French).
So, I suspect that will have skewed the figure for 2017.
The invasion failed to introduce the democracy, freedom and liberty."
http://www.thearabweekly.com/Opinion/8055/14-years-on,-where's-Iraq's-democracy?
But what would they know?
And from that article, "In the first three years after the invasion, a British medical publication, the Lancet, recorded that 654,965 Iraqis had lost their lives by June 2006 as a direct consequence of the invasion." High price for a couple of rigged elections.
As to why the Conservative party are so unpopular among university workers... Part of the answer might be the policies of May? Probably Gove's attacks on academics didn't go down well either.
https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/general-election-2017-54-per-cent-backing-for-labour-in-poll#survey-answer