Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How leading Tories did in their own seats at the General Elect
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How leading Tories did in their own seats at the General Election
Over the past few weeks when discussing Amber Rudd’s chances of succeeding TMay I have broadly dismissed those who have said the tightness of her majority in Hastings (346) rules her out of becoming leader. My argument had been that leaders generally do better in their own constituency than their party because of things like local pride.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
It would be interesting to see a graph comparing May in her seat as first election as party leader with historical comparisons to other leaders/PMs.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/88432/excl-top-jeremy-corbyn-spin-doctor
She'd need significant boundary changes to make a chicken run permissible.
Plus it would send out a terrible signal.
If a child runs in front of my car unpredictably and I have no chance to react then I'm not likely to get prosecuted though its still possible.
If a child runs in front of my car unpredictably and I have a chance to react but I don't brake because I either choose not to or because I'm driving an illegal vehicle without brakes then I would be responsible.
It's only the 90% that give the rest a bad name.
Nothing to do with Boris - disliked him for 20 years.
In Ireland I don't think we were ever simultaneously on both sides, but some judicious balancing allowed us to maintain our presence from the Treaty of Windsor until the Fully implementation of the Buckingham Palace agreement.
In the American Civil War my mother's family fought for Tennessee, while my father's financed the Union.
http://www.adamgray.london/2017scotland
Looks like a mine of information for scottish election followers/punters.
I'm not sure that people who dislike Trump saying that they dislike Trump is particularly going to change anything.
But it doesn't "favour" McGregor because he still has to hit him and Mayweather has been hit hard by any number of people previously. Wearing 8oz gloves doesn't give McGregor a free hit!
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/900388258479316994
Perhaps you could write a note that says "irony doesn't work on the internet" and stick it on your monitor?
Blimey!!
Him being called "Muhammad", then, must be a pure coincidence.
Edit: And, of course, Nadeem Muhammad's motive for attempting to take this device onto a plane remains unknown.
4.8 seconds between the woman stepping onto the road and the collision.
That seems like quite a long time to be honest.
Also, Mayweather reckons that McGregor could be quite a bit over the weight, if he doesn’t make weight he’ll have a financial penalty rather than have the fight cancelled. It’s possible Mayweather could be giving away half a stone.
Agree with you, I can’t see this being a contest at all to be honest. Mayweather also knows where and how to land a big one, and I doubt it’ll take him more than a round or two. It could well be like an early Mike Tyson fight, where the referee starts counting to ten before the opening bell has stopped ringing!
Almost as big an error as that letter sent to the Finnish Academic!
Last week, his administration had the air of a corpse in a funeral home. This week, not quite so much. But I truly believe that he cannot go through many more than one or two more weeks as disastrous as that one - particularly if such weeks come sooner rather than after a period of recovery.
They were also used by the villain Decius, in the videogame Shadow of Rome [if memory serves].
How many people, in absolute numbers but more crucially in terms as percentage of the population died in the English civil war? And how does it compare to the figures in the American civil war?
I've got a figure of 5% in my head, but no source for it.
http://www.complex.com/sports/2015/11/bare-knuckle-boxing
What evidence I have seen indicates that airport 'security' is not an effective means of interdiction, - rather it is more about deterrence and assuring the public that something is being done about security.
IMO McGregor has some kind of a window in rds 2-4. For the first round or two he won't get near Floyd and nor should he try. The next couple of rounds Floyd will still be working him out and if he (McGregor) is disciplined and has learned well he might get a couple of shots off. After that he'll be gassed.
But yes it should be a straightforward Mayweather win.
I am the God of history.
http://www.history.com/topics/british-history/english-civil-wars
So, on a population of just around 5 million, that would give about 4%. (see table on page 209)
https://books.google.com/books?id=pV9SZS4WpjkC&pg=PA175&lpg=PA175&dq=population+of+England+in+1640&source=bl&ots=7O47cpYWlH&sig=mu-gX791jl2-h9nhuBv8G-6RI2c&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiF1vWi6O3VAhUn04MKHVZfDQQQ6AEISDAE#v=onepage&q=population of England in 1640&f=false
But it was higher in Scotland and much more so in Ireland (which was effectively a ruined country after a four sided civil war).
As someone said in 2009, who would ever have thought that the new president would be a black man and the best selling rapper would be a white man.
Re Mr M's question on the previous thread, I'll say this. One of my thread headers last year set out what I think the guiding principles of an immigration policy should be. (For anyone interested it can be found here - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/31/mind-the-gap/).
I don't think we should be deporting EU citizens who live here and are married to British citizens, as a general rule. If anything, we should be grand-fathering those who have been here and who have not behaved badly.
However, I would make an exception for those who are convicted of serious crimes (murder, rape, fraud, terrorism, being a threat to this country etc). Bring an EU citizen or being married to a British citizen should not be a bar to deportation in such circumstances. I also feel that we should have the right not to permit the entry into Britain of those EU nationals who acquired such citizenship other than by birth in circumstances where we consider their presence undesirable (because of convictions / terrorism or similar) ie if they would not be allowed into Britain directly we should be able to bar them if they seek entry indirectly.
The other issue which needs addressing is what entitlements such immigrants should get and when. I favour a system whereby immigrants should have to contribute for a certain period before getting benefits.
And clearly there should be reciprocity for Uk citizens living within the EU.
While this might not do much to reduce numbers (not my primary concern) it would at least address two other concerns that some have: that people arrive and get something for nothing ie contribution should precede - and by some years - entitlement and that people who break the rules should lose their right to be in our country. We should not be forced to have immigrants who are lawbreakers.
Such measures would give the country some measure of control without shooting ourselves in the foot.
As I point out to some friends, sanctions are not neutral. It is quite possible that deaths due to sanctions in the interim between Gulf wars dwarf the deaths in both wars several fold.
Biggest mystery on the internet: My Sharona by The Knack has 7.5 million views but the official The Knack channel it's on has only 943 subscribers.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbr60I0u2Ng
Pay for holiday at English travel agent with £1700 in Scottish notes
Get lifted by plod on return from holiday
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-40959802
The real speed merchants seem to me to be motorbikes. On motorroads, I almost never see a moorbike that is doing less than about 90, and some are clearly above 100.
Cycling is good for all the obvious reasons but they need to responsibly share the road and obey the rules as do the rest of us.
I take your motorbike point too, and yes the continentals do seem better at this cycling lark in the round than we are. We could learn - including cyclists.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Did it have a lot of middle class suburbia built since then ?
@mikesisak: Trump to terrorists: We're taking away your internet!
I'm also getting annoyed with those on disabled scooters who in many case are worse than the cyclist.
England: 190,000 dead out of a pre-war population of c. 5 million, 3.7%
Scotland: 60,000 dead out of a pre-war population of c. 1 millions, 6%
Ireland: 618,000 dead out of a pre-war population of c. 1.5 million, 41%
Total: 868 dead out of a pre-war population of 7.5 million, 11.6%
And yes, the Irish figure is truly staggering. As Yeats put it, Cromwell's curse and Cromwell's murderous crew....
Well done on the 100km a week. I do about that, the best form of transport.
What's 100km in real money?
More than once when I've been walking along the pavement I've heard a "Beeb beeb" noise behind me and it's been someone on a disabled scooter wanting me to get out of the way. What is it about being on wheels that stops you just saying "excuse me" like a civilised human being?
At times I've wondered if they're looking for a fight.
At others that I'm not surprised there are so many nasty accidents.