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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber Rudd moves to joint 3rd CON leader favourite following speculation that she’s got Ruth Davidson’s backing
There’s been a flurry of speculation over Amber Rudd’s leadership chances following her trip to Scotland and a private meeting with the Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson.
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A more plausible scenario is May quits at the 2018 conference and is replaced by somebody with the job of selling whatever deal (or no deal) there is, possibly via another election (which incidentally would also be the only hope, and a slim one at that, that Corbyn has of becoming PM). But again it requires a unity candidate and Rudd is not likely to be it.
I still think the ones to watch are ex-ministers on the back benches who have missed all the trouble. What an idiot Osborne looks like now.
Mr. Doethur, to [roughly] quote Grey Fox, you're saying she's neither alive nor dead, a shadow trapped in a world of lights?
£350m a week for the NHS...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2016
Ruth Davidson's support is useful but the question for Amber Rudd is whether Theresa May will help ease her into Number 10. It would not surprise me and that is how I'd bet if a contest were called tomorrow.
I don't think it sellable to the country though.
She is a far better option than DD or JRM.
last time she ran a front line campaign she lost
A Tory coronation would be somewhat less bad.
I'd move her to a safe seat in the shires, ASAP.
http://fishingnews.co.uk/news/commercial-fishing-hastings/
I thought hard brexit meant no jobs no trade
Time could also be saved by having members' ballot papers printed at the start and trusting members not to vote for those already eliminated. Time could also be saved by reducing the gaps between MPs' voting rounds.
It is time for Conservative leadership elections to feel the white heat of the technological revolution. The days when ballot papers were hand rolled on maidens' thighs are behind us.
It won't just be bacon butties and prostitutes though, there would be good white collar jobs as customs officers.
Rye is quite smart and picturesque, but Hastings is quite rundown. Some lovely old Victorian townhouses turned into slums. It could gentrify well if there were better jobs.
The big issues come with the second and third rounds of the negotiations and what's not currently being discussed. The UK wants a deep and comprehensive trade deal with the EU but rejects the deepest and most comprehensive one. How much continuity will there be on March 30 2019?
Perhaps you can tell me?
Moreover, do you think they would have the money for express delivery on all ballots?
Finally, putting the wrong names on a ballot invalidates it. This is why when a candidate dies the election has to be postponed.
While I appreciate your passionate hatred for May means you don't care how she's removed you just want her out - I sympathise, by the way, as it's how I feel about the Jezziah - will you just pause and think about the logistics and the implications before making silly claims?
Please tell me one contested leadership election from any party that has gone to the membership in the last 25 up years that has been resolved in less than two months. Most of them take four.
Any bets on nothing actually happening to them? Including no ban on their highly harmful poultry products?
the Germans have just unilaterally decided their diesel engines dont kill anyone
so thats OK
english middle calss property fixation
maybe you can BTL to the chavs down there
Have a good morning.
I've lived in Dover for most of my life, it is the busiest passenger port in Europe, Operation Stack cripples the town. Hastings is at least 1 1/2 hours from Dover along coastal roads, it has zero impact on Dover, I've now been told by headbanging Remainers that it will be a lorry park and subject to customs control.
Please continue with your errant nonsense, it proves how weak your arguments are.
https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/894097790804078592
https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/894097790804078592
we're still in the EU,
I thought all the problems were meant to start when we left ?
That Brexit dividend really is a mirage for the poor people of Hastings isn't it?
I think Rudd would be OK for much the same reasons as May looked a reasonable choice - reasonably solid, no obvious blunders or weird opinions. I doubt if she'd set the country on fire - she'd be seen as a continuity candidate rather than a fresh face. The Tories could do worse but a fresh look might be better for them.
Neither is the EU the cause of all our problems.
I think that the government of the living dead will continue for some time.
Best get off to church, we have a Hiroshima themed service that sounds interesting. Play nicely!
A man was lying in blood on the bottom walkway. I eventually found a way down and stayed with him until the police and an ambulance came. He was barely conscious and could only just give me his name. I asked him how long he'd been lying there, and he replied: "two months!"
I never heard anything else about the story, or even found out where he was bleeding from.
It certainly gave me an interesting impression of Hastings!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/05/un-north-korea-sanctions-nikki-haley
Apparently the Tories thought closely about taxing gains on house sales, and might do so again:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/05/tax-wealth-or-lose-election-will-tanner-theresa-may-aide-warns-tories
- that would certainly appeal to some on the centre-left, including me, though how many votes it would swing I'm less sure.
Are you finally realising why Leave won? All I read from you is confirmation bias that is miles from reality.
Seems like people like you will only be satisfied if Brexit is a total disaster. The prospect of the sort of deal which you claim is essential seems to fill you with dread.
Anyway, don't worry yourself. The EU will reject any offer that seeks to tie money to trade even though it is totally obvious to everyone that this is the only viable outcome. Then you will blame the Government again because nothing is ever the EU's fault.
And I dispute Ruth is very popular with Con members across the country. From what I've seen a lot of shire pensioners were as upset with her over the WFA debacle as they were Mother Theresa...
I suspect James Forsyth and the rest of the boys in the bubble will have another shock when they see how little weight Davidson's endorsements have with Con members in England...
That said, I'm all in favour of electronic options, Labour managed to do it with over a million affiliates last year.
I mean, don't get wrong RD's preferred candidate might become leader but the idea that Davidson is so widely popular with Con members that she'll virtually anoint the winner is ridiculous...
If she was that popular the majority of Con members would've listened to her in the referendum debates... And voted REMAIN...
I can't help feeling that she is another fairly blank canvas on which people can paint their hopes and dreams without having to worry too much about reality. A bit like Theresa all over again. This is the sane candidate because, unlike the others, she is not obviously insane. It may be true but the evidence, like the last time, is modest one way or the other.
Threads on US elections on tech forums are hillarious, with all the techies arguing for paper and pencil voting rather than easily hackable and outdated voting machines of various types.
An internal election for a party leader is doable though, when there aren't the same privacy, confidentiality and traceability concerns.
May and Davidson really fcked up that one.
'A damning report into an ambulance trust has revealed a culture of bullying and harassment with concerns over "toxic" atmospheres, sexual grooming and a fear of speaking out.
When bullying claims at South East Coast Ambulance Service (Secamb) emerged in February the trust commissioned an independent review.
About half the workforce surveyed experienced bullying in the past year. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-40825748
But, not in favour of the Conservatives.
She comes from a wealthy privileged background and got divorced with children at home which party members might requires more charisma than she has to cover that.
Also she was a minister for climate change/energy and can see that putting off both climate sceptics and others who can see Hinkley Point is a going to be a disaster policy that leads huge hikes in energy bills.
Note Therese Mays cutbacks at the Home Office have now made her vulnerable.She was unable in the election to exploit politically the terrorists attacks against even Corbyn because of her cutbacks in police etc .Note whenever energy prices began to rise any Tory who has worked in the energy dept will lack credibility in talking about getting energy prices down
As that doesn't create wealth it has to be borrowed to fund consumption.
Moving away from the detritus of the Conservative Party leadership election which has effectively started now and will run until 2019 (Lord help us !!).
"How Do You solve a problem like North Korea ?" continues to run and run. Superficial unity at the UN bought after some tough talking between the US and China I suspect but what now ?
Beijing is clearly hoping the temperature can be lowered and life can get back to what passes for normal. It's unclear to me how much "influence" Beijing really has - possibly little with Kim himself but a lot with some of his more senior advisers and generals.
Clearly, a pro-Beijing regime in Pyongyang stepping away from Juche to a more "sensible" ideological basis would be the ideal outcome and if all that takes is a few bullets in the right places, most of the world would consider that a price worth paying.
That doesn't seem likely at present and the risk the next escalation will be one too many is a large one (I'm reminded of what happened 103 years ago this weekend (roughly) after one crisis or provocation too many).
I don't think the West has developed any coherent method of dealing with dictators beyond hoping they will be overthrown from within (though that happens less frequently now it seems). The choices are intervention or containment but both carry huge risks and to be honest not too many rewards. The problem comes when the dictator stops terrorising his own people and starts threatening everyone else.