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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Former runaway favourite Johnson now slips to just a 6.6% chan

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Oh well.....the Remainers Hammond love in wasn't going to last...

    http://news.sky.com/story/hammond-rejects-dublins-plan-for-irish-sea-border-after-brexit-10965110
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    Oh well.....the Remainers Hammond love in wasn't going to last...

    http://news.sky.com/story/hammond-rejects-dublins-plan-for-irish-sea-border-after-brexit-10965110

    You're clearly not reading between the lines:

    "The Irish government, the British Government and indeed the European Union Commission all share an ambition to ensure that we do not reinstate any kind of hard border between norther Ireland and the Republic of Ireland," he told Sky News.

    "That is a very high priority to us because the peace process in Ireland is extremely important to us. But the answer on how to deliver that cannot be to create a border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain."


    No border in Ireland, and no border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. There is a very obvious implication of that position.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    On topic: Boris is a buy at 6.8%, the big sell is the Mogg !
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    justin124 said:

    Philip Hammond appears to be under the impression that the next election is due in June 2022. He is wrong! Under the terms of the FTPA polling day is scheduled for May 5th 2022 – ie this Parliament will be slightly less than 4 years 11 months even if it goes full term. That would only change if the FTPA were to be repealed – which now seems unlikely given the parliamentary arithmetic.

    The term can be extended by up to two months by statutory instrument.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162

    Scott_P said:

    Check the time stamps.....lol.....

    And?

    My conversation about Hannan started after your conversation about something else.

    You do understand how that works, right?
    So you think Hannan's views are more important than the Taoiseach's reported on the front page of the Times, and followed up on R4 with senior DUP politicians?

    You don't think there might be more to political discourse than Twitter?
    A customs border in the Irish Sea is a practical and workable solution to a problem created by the UK's decision. Telling Ireland to leave the EU as an alternative solution would be an imperialistic power play were it not so laughable.
    The UK and Ireland joined the EU at the same time in 1973, which avoided border issues between Northern Ireland and Ireland.

    Ireland might choose for itself to leave the EU because of its strong trade and other links with the UK.
    Pigs ‘might’ fly! Ireland appears to be strongly committed to the EU.
    Talking of flying PIGS, Ireland has upgraded the growth forecast for 2018 to 3.6% and Spain has posted its 15th successive quarter of growth.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jul/28/france-us-uk-growth-gdp-exports-sterling-ftse-business-live
    Both Spain and Ireland did 'real austerity' after the crash - with pay cuts for public servants and considerable drops in living standards, plus of course no devaluation to ease the pain. they are now reaping considerable rewards. Here in Spain - we have falling unemployment and near zero inflation - oh and 320 sunny days a year!
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    felix said:

    Here in Spain - we have falling unemployment and near zero inflation - oh and 320 sunny days a year!

    Falling .... but not exactly healthy, still 4x the UK's rate.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Check the time stamps.....lol.....

    And?

    My conversation about Hannan started after your conversation about something else.

    You do understand how that works, right?
    So you think Hannan's views are more important than the Taoiseach's reported on the front page of the Times, and followed up on R4 with senior DUP politicians?

    You don't think there might be more to political discourse than Twitter?
    A customs border in the Irish Sea is a practical and workable solution to a problem created by the UK's decision. Telling Ireland to leave the EU as an alternative solution would be an imperialistic power play were it not so laughable.
    There are really 4 answers to the Irish border:

    1) a hard border
    2) UK remains in the customs union
    3) Border in the Irish Sea
    4) Ireland leaves the EU Customs union.

    Surely 2) is unacceptable fo the Tories, 3) to the DUP, 4) to the Irish Republic.

    Which meas a Hard Border, or the government loses DUP support, though DUP seem opposed to hard border too.
    Of course, there's no hard border between Norway or Switzerland and the EU, so I'm not sure 2 is true.
    Though both are in Schengen and in the EEA, which does not appear to be compatible with current government plans.
    Not sure that there is no customs border between Norway and the EU.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway–Sweden_border
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    Andrew said:

    felix said:

    Here in Spain - we have falling unemployment and near zero inflation - oh and 320 sunny days a year!

    Falling .... but not exactly healthy, still 4x the UK's rate.
    The fall has been very dramatic and there have also been reforms to Labour law. The headline rate however masks what is still a very corrupt system with lots of jobs under the radar. The real rate is probably only 2X that in the UK.
  • Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Essexit said:

    Mike and Jonathan nicely demonstrating the two contradictory sides of the Remoaner line on Brexit and the economy today.

    The EU yesterday moving to take sanctions against Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic for refusing to help mitigate German migration policy shows just what direction it's going in. As do their broader moves against Poland.

    Absolutely delighted we're leaving.
    That Farage poster was bang on the money.
    The broader moves against Poland are precisely why I am in favour of the EU - it is attempting to stop a democracy sliding into authoritarian control.

    I don't know much about the situation in Poland, but I don't consider it our responsibility to foster democracy around the world.
    Blair'sGod's work.
    Well, quite. The EU was nowhere to be seen when Blair was trying to get six months' imprisonment without trial and identity cards through.
    Do you mean that the over-arching, interfering EU was NOT stopping us passing our own legislation through our own parliament?

    I am shocked!

    I was under the impression that Westminster was a mere rubber stamp and all laws came from Brussels and that we were Leaving to regain control...........
    The EU needs to decide whether it is, or is not, all about "attempting to stop a democracy sliding into authoritarian control", and then stick to it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Essexit said:

    Mike and Jonathan nicely demonstrating the two contradictory sides of the Remoaner line on Brexit and the economy today.

    The EU yesterday moving to take sanctions against Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic for refusing to help mitigate German migration policy shows just what direction it's going in. As do their broader moves against Poland.

    Absolutely delighted we're leaving.
    That Farage poster was bang on the money.
    The broader moves against Poland are precisely why I am in favour of the EU - it is attempting to stop a democracy sliding into authoritarian control.

    I don't know much about the situation in Poland, but I don't consider it our responsibility to foster democracy around the world.
    Blair'sGod's work.
    Well, quite. The EU was nowhere to be seen when Blair was trying to get six months' imprisonment without trial and identity cards through.
    Do you mean that the over-arching, interfering EU was NOT stopping us passing our own legislation through our own parliament?

    I am shocked!

    I was under the impression that Westminster was a mere rubber stamp and all laws came from Brussels and that we were Leaving to regain control...........
    The EU needs to decide whether it is, or is not, all about "attempting to stop a democracy sliding into authoritarian control", and then stick to it.
    agreed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Essexit said:

    Mike and Jonathan nicely demonstrating the two contradictory sides of the Remoaner line on Brexit and the economy today.

    The EU yesterday moving to take sanctions against Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic for refusing to help mitigate German migration policy shows just what direction it's going in. As do their broader moves against Poland.

    Absolutely delighted we're leaving.
    That Farage poster was bang on the money.
    The broader moves against Poland are precisely why I am in favour of the EU - it is attempting to stop a democracy sliding into authoritarian control.

    I don't know much about the situation in Poland, but I don't consider it our responsibility to foster democracy around the world.
    Blair'sGod's work.
    Well, quite. The EU was nowhere to be seen when Blair was trying to get six months' imprisonment without trial and identity cards through.
    Do you mean that the over-arching, interfering EU was NOT stopping us passing our own legislation through our own parliament?

    I am shocked!

    I was under the impression that Westminster was a mere rubber stamp and all laws came from Brussels and that we were Leaving to regain control...........
    The EU needs to decide whether it is, or is not, all about "attempting to stop a democracy sliding into authoritarian control", and then stick to it.
    It's clear that some Westminster-minded people struggle with the idea that the EU's powers are strictly constitutionally defined and they cannot arbitrarily decide to become something else.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    For years, Dems have run against Republicams on the mere threat of Medicaid/Medicare cuts. And now they have a vote to hang around their necks for 2018

    Ryan and McConnell have completely screwed this. I guess Trump was too busy trying to get Sessions fired
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:

    Check the time stamps.....lol.....

    And?

    My conversation about Hannan started after your conversation about something else.

    You do understand how that works, right?
    So you think Hannan's views are more important than the Taoiseach's reported on the front page of the Times, and followed up on R4 with senior DUP politicians?

    You don't think there might be more to political discourse than Twitter?
    A customs border in the Irish Sea is a practical and workable solution to a problem created by the UK's decision. Telling Ireland to leave the EU as an alternative solution would be an imperialistic power play were it not so laughable.
    The UK and Ireland joined the EU at the same time in 1973, which avoided border issues between Northern Ireland and Ireland.

    Ireland might choose for itself to leave the EU because of its strong trade and other links with the UK.
    Pigs ‘might’ fly! Ireland appears to be strongly committed to the EU.
    Talking of flying PIGS, Ireland has upgraded the growth forecast for 2018 to 3.6% and Spain has posted its 15th successive quarter of growth.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jul/28/france-us-uk-growth-gdp-exports-sterling-ftse-business-live
    Both Spain and Ireland did 'real austerity' after the crash - with pay cuts for public servants and considerable drops in living standards, plus of course no devaluation to ease the pain. they are now reaping considerable rewards. Here in Spain - we have falling unemployment and near zero inflation - oh and 320 sunny days a year!
    Ireland seems not to have had so severe a dip in the first place.
    https://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:ESP:IRL:GBR&ifdim=region&hl=en&dl=en&ind=false
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    Andrew said:

    felix said:

    Here in Spain - we have falling unemployment and near zero inflation - oh and 320 sunny days a year!

    Falling .... but not exactly healthy, still 4x the UK's rate.
    I'm always a little sceptical of the Spanish unemployment number. Back in 2007, at the height of the Spanish construction boom, the country was still showing 10-11% unemployment.

    The number I would look at for Spain, is total number of employed people. Which is still well below the peak, but growing nicely.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,575

    Oh well.....the Remainers Hammond love in wasn't going to last...

    http://news.sky.com/story/hammond-rejects-dublins-plan-for-irish-sea-border-after-brexit-10965110

    Hammond has rejected a border between Northern Ireland and Britain. How about a frictionless border using modern technology? If it's good enough for a transparent land border between the Republic and Northern Ireland, surely it's good enough for a transparent sea border between NI and Britain? Or is this technology a pipedream?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Barnesian said:

    Oh well.....the Remainers Hammond love in wasn't going to last...

    http://news.sky.com/story/hammond-rejects-dublins-plan-for-irish-sea-border-after-brexit-10965110

    Hammond has rejected a border between Northern Ireland and Britain. How about a frictionless border using modern technology? If it's good enough for a transparent land border between the Republic and Northern Ireland, surely it's good enough for a transparent sea border between NI and Britain? Or is this technology a pipedream?

    Nothing to do with the technology. Moving the border to around a united Ireland would be a very significant political step.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    619 said:

    For years, Dems have run against Republicams on the mere threat of Medicaid/Medicare cuts. And now they have a vote to hang around their necks for 2018

    Ryan and McConnell have completely screwed this. I guess Trump was too busy trying to get Sessions fired

    Going to be ‘interesting'if the Dems get their act together and win enough Senate seats to take control.Which they could!
    Not likely to happen with the Hoiuse is it?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2017
    "By any number of measures Venezuela is falling apart.
    Nine out of ten Venezuelans say they cannot afford enough food. Three quarters have lost weight in the last year. Maternal mortality rates have shot up. People are routinely dying of treatable conditions because doctors can no longer find the most basic of drugs."

    http://news.sky.com/story/oil-rich-but-sliding-into-anarchy-why-is-venezuela-on-the-brink-10964697
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Barnesian said:

    Oh well.....the Remainers Hammond love in wasn't going to last...

    http://news.sky.com/story/hammond-rejects-dublins-plan-for-irish-sea-border-after-brexit-10965110

    Hammond has rejected a border between Northern Ireland and Britain. How about a frictionless border using modern technology? If it's good enough for a transparent land border between the Republic and Northern Ireland, surely it's good enough for a transparent sea border between NI and Britain? Or is this technology a pipedream?
    Moving the border to around a united Ireland would be a very significant political step.
    And a suggestion more experienced politicians might have been alert to the likely response....
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,575

    Barnesian said:

    Oh well.....the Remainers Hammond love in wasn't going to last...

    http://news.sky.com/story/hammond-rejects-dublins-plan-for-irish-sea-border-after-brexit-10965110

    Hammond has rejected a border between Northern Ireland and Britain. How about a frictionless border using modern technology? If it's good enough for a transparent land border between the Republic and Northern Ireland, surely it's good enough for a transparent sea border between NI and Britain? Or is this technology a pipedream?

    Nothing to do with the technology. Moving the border to around a united Ireland would be a very significant political step.

    OK. Make it a border between the Republic and Britain and frictionless electronic shipping documents for goods moving between NI and Britain. Definitely not a border, oh no!
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    This is a good example of why PCBEs shouldn't be taken seriously.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Fenman said:

    So we now leave in 2022. By then the majority will be remainders as the Brexit majority will have gone to meet a reluctant maker.

    By then there will be no Leave or Remain majority - Stay Out or Rejoin might have one, though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    Fenman said:

    So we now leave in 2022. By then the majority will be remainders as the Brexit majority will have gone to meet a reluctant maker.

    By then there will be no Leave or Remain majority - Stay Out or Rejoin might have one, though.
    If we have a transition in which the only practical change is that we're frozen out of the EU institutions, those choices will not be perceived in the way you seem to think they will.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,575
    edited July 2017

    619 said:

    For years, Dems have run against Republicams on the mere threat of Medicaid/Medicare cuts. And now they have a vote to hang around their necks for 2018

    Ryan and McConnell have completely screwed this. I guess Trump was too busy trying to get Sessions fired

    Going to be ‘interesting'if the Dems get their act together and win enough Senate seats to take control.Which they could!
    Not likely to happen with the House is it?
    According to "Real Clear Politics" "the Democrats would have to sweep Texas, Arizona and Nevada to win back the Senate, while holding all of their vulnerable seats – a very tall order.  At the same time, their exposure is limited by the president’s job approval, and some savvy incumbents."

    The supporting analysis is :

    "First, there are states where the president’s job approval is net positive.  These are states where Republicans can be expected to win, except in extreme circumstances, and where Democrats will struggle. Six of the nine Republican Senate seats up this cycle fall into this category, illustrating the challenge that Democrats face.  At the same time, four Democratic senators represent these states: Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Jon Tester of Montana, and Claire McCaskill of Missouri. "

    "Then there states where the president’s job approval is negative, but above his national average.  Right now, Republican Senate seats in Nevada, Arizona, and Texas fall into this category."


    I'd like to see the Democrats take the Senate in 2018 but I suspect it's odds against.

  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Barnesian said:

    619 said:

    For years, Dems have run against Republicams on the mere threat of Medicaid/Medicare cuts. And now they have a vote to hang around their necks for 2018

    Ryan and McConnell have completely screwed this. I guess Trump was too busy trying to get Sessions fired

    Going to be ‘interesting'if the Dems get their act together and win enough Senate seats to take control.Which they could!
    Not likely to happen with the House is it?
    According to "Real Clear Politics" "the Democrats would have to sweep Texas, Arizona and Nevada to win back the Senate, while holding all of their vulnerable seats – a very tall order.  At the same time, their exposure is limited by the president’s job approval, and some savvy incumbents."

    The supporting analysis is :

    "First, there are states where the president’s job approval is net positive.  These are states where Republicans can be expected to win, except in extreme circumstances, and where Democrats will struggle. Six of the nine Republican Senate seats up this cycle fall into this category, illustrating the challenge that Democrats face.  At the same time, four Democratic senators represent these states: Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Jon Tester of Montana, and Claire McCaskill of Missouri. "

    "Then there states where the president’s job approval is negative, but above his national average.  Right now, Republican Senate seats in Nevada, Arizona, and Texas fall into this category."


    I'd like to see the Democrats take the Senate in 2018 but I suspect it's odds against.

    Jesus there are places who like Trumps shit show???

    McConell may not survive last night

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/890909414273802240
  • Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Essexit said:

    Mike and Jonathan nicely demonstrating the two contradictory sides of the Remoaner line on Brexit and the economy today.

    The EU yesterday moving to take sanctions against Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic for refusing to help mitigate German migration policy shows just what direction it's going in. As do their broader moves against Poland.

    Absolutely delighted we're leaving.
    That Farage poster was bang on the money.
    The broader moves against Poland are precisely why I am in favour of the EU - it is attempting to stop a democracy sliding into authoritarian control.

    I don't know much about the situation in Poland, but I don't consider it our responsibility to foster democracy around the world.
    Blair'sGod's work.
    Well, quite. The EU was nowhere to be seen when Blair was trying to get six months' imprisonment without trial and identity cards through.
    Do you mean that the over-arching, interfering EU was NOT stopping us passing our own legislation through our own parliament?

    I am shocked!

    I was under the impression that Westminster was a mere rubber stamp and all laws came from Brussels and that we were Leaving to regain control...........
    The EU needs to decide whether it is, or is not, all about "attempting to stop a democracy sliding into authoritarian control", and then stick to it.
    It's clear that some Westminster-minded people struggle with the idea that the EU's powers are strictly constitutionally defined and they cannot arbitrarily decide to become something else.
    The EU is only the EU because the EC decided to become the EU. The EU can do anything it likes, including deciding to become the USE. There is after all no restraining Parliamentary opposition.

    Either the EU "is attempting to stop a democracy sliding into authoritarian control" in this instance, or it is not.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Andrew said:

    felix said:

    Here in Spain - we have falling unemployment and near zero inflation - oh and 320 sunny days a year!

    Falling .... but not exactly healthy, still 4x the UK's rate.
    My take on Spanish unemployment is that yes the registered unemployment is high and the benefits not very good but
    In reality a lot of the "unemployed" actually work in the black economy. They probably get sub minimum wage but getting
    A job with a contract is quite difficult due to employment law and the Spanish equivalent of TUPE
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Essexit said:

    Mike and Jonathan nicely demonstrating the two contradictory sides of the Remoaner line on Brexit and the economy today.

    The EU yesterday moving to take sanctions against Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic for refusing to help mitigate German migration policy shows just what direction it's going in. As do their broader moves against Poland.

    Absolutely delighted we're leaving.
    That Farage poster was bang on the money.
    The broader moves against Poland are precisely why I am in favour of the EU - it is attempting to stop a democracy sliding into authoritarian control.

    I don't know much about the situation in Poland, but I don't consider it our responsibility to foster democracy around the world.
    Blair'sGod's work.
    Well, quite. The EU was nowhere to be seen when Blair was trying to get six months' imprisonment without trial and identity cards through.
    Do you mean that the over-arching, interfering EU was NOT stopping us passing our own legislation through our own parliament?

    I am shocked!

    I was under the impression that Westminster was a mere rubber stamp and all laws came from Brussels and that we were Leaving to regain control...........
    The EU needs to decide whether it is, or is not, all about "attempting to stop a democracy sliding into authoritarian control", and then stick to it.
    It's clear that some Westminster-minded people struggle with the idea that the EU's powers are strictly constitutionally defined and they cannot arbitrarily decide to become something else.
    The EU is only the EU because the EC decided to become the EU. The EU can do anything it likes, including deciding to become the USE. There is after all no restraining Parliamentary opposition.
    Thank you for proving my point beyond any doubt.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    619 said:

    Barnesian said:

    619 said:

    For years, Dems have run against Republicams on the mere threat of Medicaid/Medicare cuts. And now they have a vote to hang around their necks for 2018

    Ryan and McConnell have completely screwed this. I guess Trump was too busy trying to get Sessions fired

    Going to be ‘interesting'if the Dems get their act together and win enough Senate seats to take control.Which they could!
    Not likely to happen with the House is it?
    According to "Real Clear Politics" "the Democrats would have to sweep Texas, Arizona and Nevada to win back the Senate, while holding all of their vulnerable seats – a very tall order.  At the same time, their exposure is limited by the president’s job approval, and some savvy incumbents."

    The supporting analysis is :

    "First, there are states where the president’s job approval is net positive.  These are states where Republicans can be expected to win, except in extreme circumstances, and where Democrats will struggle. Six of the nine Republican Senate seats up this cycle fall into this category, illustrating the challenge that Democrats face.  At the same time, four Democratic senators represent these states: Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Jon Tester of Montana, and Claire McCaskill of Missouri. "

    "Then there states where the president’s job approval is negative, but above his national average.  Right now, Republican Senate seats in Nevada, Arizona, and Texas fall into this category."


    I'd like to see the Democrats take the Senate in 2018 but I suspect it's odds against.

    Jesus there are places who like Trump
    Yes, that's why he won the election.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    619 said:

    Barnesian said:

    619 said:

    For years, Dems have run against Republicams on the mere threat of Medicaid/Medicare cuts. And now they have a vote to hang around their necks for 2018

    Ryan and McConnell have completely screwed this. I guess Trump was too busy trying to get Sessions fired

    Going to be ‘interesting'if the Dems get their act together and win enough Senate seats to take control.Which they could!
    Not likely to happen with the House is it?
    According to "Real Clear Politics" "the Democrats would have to sweep Texas, Arizona and Nevada to win back the Senate, while holding all of their vulnerable seats – a very tall order.  At the same time, their exposure is limited by the president’s job approval, and some savvy incumbents."

    The supporting analysis is :

    "First, there are states where the president’s job approval is net positive.  These are states where Republicans can be expected to win, except in extreme circumstances, and where Democrats will struggle. Six of the nine Republican Senate seats up this cycle fall into this category, illustrating the challenge that Democrats face.  At the same time, four Democratic senators represent these states: Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Jon Tester of Montana, and Claire McCaskill of Missouri. "

    "Then there states where the president’s job approval is negative, but above his national average.  Right now, Republican Senate seats in Nevada, Arizona, and Texas fall into this category."


    I'd like to see the Democrats take the Senate in 2018 but I suspect it's odds against.

    Jesus there are places who like Trump
    Yes, that's why he won the election.
    That's not what I meant and you know it. I'm amazed they STILL like whats coming out of his disastrous presidency
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited July 2017
    619 said:

    619 said:

    Barnesian said:

    619 said:

    For years, Dems have run against Republicams on the mere threat of Medicaid/Medicare cuts. And now they have a vote to hang around their necks for 2018

    Ryan and McConnell have completely screwed this. I guess Trump was too busy trying to get Sessions fired

    Going to be ‘interesting'if the Dems get their act together and win enough Senate seats to take control.Which they could!
    Not likely to happen with the House is it?
    According to "Real Clear Politics" "the Democrats would have to sweep Texas, Arizona and Nevada to win back the Senate, while holding all of their vulnerable seats – a very tall order.  At the same time, their exposure is limited by the president’s job approval, and some savvy incumbents."

    The supporting analysis is :

    "First, there are states where the president’s job approval is net positive.  These are states where Republicans can be expected to win, except in extreme circumstances, and where Democrats will struggle. Six of the nine Republican Senate seats up this cycle fall into this category, illustrating the challenge that Democrats face.  At the same time, four Democratic senators represent these states: Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Jon Tester of Montana, and Claire McCaskill of Missouri. "

    "Then there states where the president’s job approval is negative, but above his national average.  Right now, Republican Senate seats in Nevada, Arizona, and Texas fall into this category."


    I'd like to see the Democrats take the Senate in 2018 but I suspect it's odds against.

    Jesus there are places who like Trump
    Yes, that's why he won the election.
    That's not what I meant and you know it. I'm amazed they STILL like whats coming out of his disastrous presidency
    They don't believe it is disastrous. This tweet is instructive as to why, especially considering that most of this comes from people like you who were devout Clinton fans.

    https://twitter.com/FoxBusiness/status/889175791057092608
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256


    The EU is only the EU because the EC decided to become the EU. The EU can do anything it likes, including deciding to become the USE. There is after all no restraining Parliamentary opposition.

    Thank you for proving my point beyond any doubt.
    image
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: just seen the P2 results and am perplexed by Vettel being 2nd (to Ricciardo), yet his odds lengthening to 6.2. Hamilton was fifth, behind them and the two Finns, but remains scarcely above evens.

    It's only practice, but if it's moving the markets, doesn't that look a little peculiar?

    My early tip on Vettel (bouncing around odds of 4 to 5.2) was based on power mattering less in Hungary, and that tallies with Red Bull doing well (though Verstappen needs to find his feet), and McLaren likewise.

    So... why's Hamilton still seen as rock solid favourite? Surely it should be tighter? Or am I mad as a mongoose?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,575
    619 said:

    619 said:

    Barnesian said:

    619 said:

    For years, Dems have run against Republicams on the mere threat of Medicaid/Medicare cuts. And now they have a vote to hang around their necks for 2018

    Ryan and McConnell have completely screwed this. I guess Trump was too busy trying to get Sessions fired

    Going to be ‘interesting'if the Dems get their act together and win enough Senate seats to take control.Which they could!
    Not likely to happen with the House is it?
    According to "Real Clear Politics" "the Democrats would have to sweep Texas, Arizona and Nevada to win back the Senate, while holding all of their vulnerable seats – a very tall order.  At the same time, their exposure is limited by the president’s job approval, and some savvy incumbents."

    The supporting analysis is :

    "First, there are states where the president’s job approval is net positive.  These are states where Republicans can be expected to win, except in extreme circumstances, and where Democrats will struggle. Six of the nine Republican Senate seats up this cycle fall into this category, illustrating the challenge that Democrats face.  At the same time, four Democratic senators represent these states: Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Jon Tester of Montana, and Claire McCaskill of Missouri. "

    "Then there states where the president’s job approval is negative, but above his national average.  Right now, Republican Senate seats in Nevada, Arizona, and Texas fall into this category."


    I'd like to see the Democrats take the Senate in 2018 but I suspect it's odds against.

    Jesus there are places who like Trump
    Yes, that's why he won the election.
    That's not what I meant and you know it. I'm amazed they STILL like whats coming out of his disastrous presidency
    He still has the approval of about 38% nationally and a majority approve of him in a number of states, six of them critical in the upcoming Senate elections.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

    In the generic congressional polls, the Democrats have a 9% lead but because of the particulars of the cycle and gerrymandering of districts, it is unlikely that the Democrats will regain either the House or the Senate this time.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    I have just heard of the tale of an Italian friend who has been living here for ten years with a Cuban wife receiving a letter telling the Cuban wife that she has to go home.

    I presume it's so the likes of Casino Royale can sit in front of the mirror with their Union Jack underpants singing Land of Hope and Glory with a smile on their face.

    It makes me want to vomit.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Roger said:

    I have just heard of the tale of an Italian friend who has been living here for ten years with a Cuban wife receiving a letter telling the Cuban wife that she has to go home.

    I presume it's so the likes of Casino Royale can sit in front of the mirror with their Union Jack underpants singing Land of Hope and Glory with a smile on their face.

    It makes me want to vomit.

    Why would that have ANYTHING to do with BREXIT - if she's been here legally for 10 years she should have applied for Leave to Remain 5 years ago and a British passport 4 years ago.....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Essexit said:

    Mike and Jonathan nicely demonstrating the two contradictory sides of the Remoaner line on Brexit and the economy today.

    The EU yesterday moving to take sanctions against Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic for refusing to help mitigate German migration policy shows just what direction it's going in. As do their broader moves against Poland.

    Absolutely delighted we're leaving.
    That Farage poster was bang on the money.
    The broader moves against Poland are precisely why I am in favour of the EU - it is attempting to stop a democracy sliding into authoritarian control.

    I don't know much about the situation in Poland, but I don't consider it our responsibility to foster democracy around the world.
    Blair'sGod's work.
    Well, quite. The EU was nowhere to be seen when Blair was trying to get six months' imprisonment without trial and identity cards through.
    Do you mean that the over-arching, interfering EU was NOT stopping us passing our own legislation through our own parliament?

    I am shocked!

    I was under the impression that Westminster was a mere rubber stamp and all laws came from Brussels and that we were Leaving to regain control...........
    The EU needs to decide whether it is, or is not, all about "attempting to stop a democracy sliding into authoritarian control", and then stick to it.
    It's clear that some Westminster-minded people struggle with the idea that the EU's powers are strictly constitutionally defined and they cannot arbitrarily decide to become something else.
    The EU is only the EU because the EC decided to become the EU. The EU can do anything it likes, including deciding to become the USE. There is after all no restraining Parliamentary opposition.
    Thank you for proving my point beyond any doubt.
    Your point is, with respect, wrong. A constitution "strictly defines" the powers of the constituent parts of whatever it is the constitution of (legislatures and judiciaries and monarchs and whatever) but not of the whole. If I am wrong, feel free to point out the provision which precludes the EU from turning itself into the ESU.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142
    The first of many HS2 related blockades on Euston will occur on the August Bank Holiday weekend:

    http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/164501.aspx

    And there is the Challenge Cup Final that weekend featuring either Wigan or Salford.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    Ishmael_Z said:

    It's clear that some Westminster-minded people struggle with the idea that the EU's powers are strictly constitutionally defined and they cannot arbitrarily decide to become something else.

    The EU is only the EU because the EC decided to become the EU. The EU can do anything it likes, including deciding to become the USE. There is after all no restraining Parliamentary opposition.
    Thank you for proving my point beyond any doubt.
    Your point is, with respect, wrong. A constitution "strictly defines" the powers of the constituent parts of whatever it is the constitution of (legislatures and judiciaries and monarchs and whatever) but not of the whole. If I am wrong, feel free to point out the provision which precludes the EU from turning itself into the ESU.
    The EU could become all sorts of things if its members negotiate and ratify a new treaty but it cannot turn itself into anything arbitrarily of its own volition. It is what it is.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    edited July 2017
    Mr. Glenn, in Discourses on Livy [which I ought to re-read...], Machiavelli states that confederations of powers ought to be no larger than 4-6 members in size, otherwise the centre, the confederation itself necessarily has to take increasing power and be able to override and manipulate national authorities, otherwise the use of vetoes and the like would make it utterly unmanageable.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Glenn (2), doesn't the Republic of Ireland do (proportionally) a lot more trade with us than we do with them?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    Mr. Glenn, in Discourses on Livy [which I ought to re-read...], Machiavelli states that confederations of powers ought to be no larger than 4-6 members in size, otherwise the centre, the confederation itself necessarily has to take increasing power and be able to override and manipulate national authorities, otherwise the use of vetoes and the like would make it utterly unmanageable.

    He would have been impressed by QMV. :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    That's easy. We do nothing. It will be the EU insisting on Customs checks - not us.....
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    tlg86 said:

    The first of many HS2 related blockades on Euston will occur on the August Bank Holiday weekend:

    http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/164501.aspx

    And there is the Challenge Cup Final that weekend featuring either Wigan or Salford.

    It's more than a little nuts that the said event is even staged at Wembley at all, given the location of the teams that might reasonably compete for it... the Super League Grand Final is in a much more sensible place.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited July 2017
    Roger said:

    ...

    I presume it's so the likes of Casino Royale can sit in front of the mirror with their Union Jack underpants singing Land of Hope and Glory with a smile on their face.

    ...

    :):)

    It is comedy central around here today

    It must be Friday :D

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    Mr. Glenn, one suspects he would've not been a fan of the EU. It has neither the peaceful republic nor the daring prince. Machiavelli never wrote a book called the Labyrinthine Bureaucracy :p
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Roger said:

    I have just heard of the tale of an Italian friend who has been living here for ten years with a Cuban wife receiving a letter telling the Cuban wife that she has to go home.

    I presume it's so the likes of Casino Royale can sit in front of the mirror with their Union Jack underpants singing Land of Hope and Glory with a smile on their face.

    It makes me want to vomit.

    Why would that have ANYTHING to do with BREXIT - if she's been here legally for 10 years she should have applied for Leave to Remain 5 years ago and a British passport 4 years ago.....
    That's what I was thinking,Roger wants to blame anything on brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    That's easy. We do nothing. It will be the EU insisting on Customs checks - not us.....

    How does that work when we are asking for full continuity for at least three years? The memo from CCHQ abandoning 'no deal is better than a bad deal' seems to have been lost on its way to you.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142

    tlg86 said:

    The first of many HS2 related blockades on Euston will occur on the August Bank Holiday weekend:

    http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/164501.aspx

    And there is the Challenge Cup Final that weekend featuring either Wigan or Salford.

    It's more than a little nuts that the said event is even staged at Wembley at all, given the location of the teams that might reasonably compete for it... the Super League Grand Final is in a much more sensible place.
    It's a trip to London for those who wouldn't normally go south of Sheffield. :)
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Roger said:

    I have just heard of the tale of an Italian friend who has been living here for ten years with a Cuban wife receiving a letter telling the Cuban wife that she has to go home.

    Didn't bother to get ILR?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    That's easy. We do nothing. It will be the EU insisting on Customs checks - not us.....

    How does that work when we are asking for full continuity for at least three years? The memo from CCHQ abandoning 'no deal is better than a bad deal' seems to have been lost on its way to you.
    Are you suggesting the EU won't insist on customs checks? I don't think the UK is the one with problem....
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Roger said:

    I have just heard of the tale of an Italian friend who has been living here for ten years with a Cuban wife receiving a letter telling the Cuban wife that she has to go home.

    Didn't bother to get ILR?
    As the wife of an EU national she is entitled to stay wherever he goes within the EU. She had no need to apply for ILR
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,188
    Roger said:

    I have just heard of the tale of an Italian friend who has been living here for ten years with a Cuban wife receiving a letter telling the Cuban wife that she has to go home.

    I presume it's so the likes of Casino Royale can sit in front of the mirror with their Union Jack underpants singing Land of Hope and Glory with a smile on their face.

    It makes me want to vomit.

    Do you have a secret camera hidden in my living room?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Roger said:

    I have just heard of the tale of an Italian friend who has been living here for ten years with a Cuban wife receiving a letter telling the Cuban wife that she has to go home.

    Didn't bother to get ILR?
    As the wife of an EU national she is entitled to stay wherever he goes within the EU. She had no need to apply for ILR
    But if she saw the UK as her permanent home, why not?

    Why is she being asked to leave? Nothing has changed for EU nationals - sounds like there is more to the story than we have been told....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    edited July 2017

    That's easy. We do nothing. It will be the EU insisting on Customs checks - not us.....

    How does that work when we are asking for full continuity for at least three years? The memo from CCHQ abandoning 'no deal is better than a bad deal' seems to have been lost on its way to you.
    Are you suggesting the EU won't insist on customs checks? I don't think the UK is the one with problem....
    Play chicken with the EU and you end up as road-kill, as your favourite singing teacher put it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    That's easy. We do nothing. It will be the EU insisting on Customs checks - not us.....

    How does that work when we are asking for full continuity for at least three years? The memo from CCHQ abandoning 'no deal is better than a bad deal' seems to have been lost on its way to you.
    Are you suggesting the EU won't insist on customs checks? I don't think the UK is the one with problem....
    Play chicken with the EU and you end up as road-kill, as your favourite singing teacher put it.
    I hope the Irish fare better than that! You see them as roadkill?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Roger said:

    I have just heard of the tale of an Italian friend who has been living here for ten years with a Cuban wife receiving a letter telling the Cuban wife that she has to go home.

    Didn't bother to get ILR?
    As the wife of an EU national she is entitled to stay wherever he goes within the EU. She had no need to apply for ILR
    If she had no need to apply for ILR why is she being asked to leave? Nothing has changed with the Immigration Rules yet.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994
    New thread, comrades...
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Roger said:

    I have just heard of the tale of an Italian friend who has been living here for ten years with a Cuban wife receiving a letter telling the Cuban wife that she has to go home.

    Didn't bother to get ILR?
    As the wife of an EU national she is entitled to stay wherever he goes within the EU. She had no need to apply for ILR
    But if she saw the UK as her permanent home, why not?

    Why is she being asked to leave? Nothing has changed for EU nationals - sounds like there is more to the story than we have been told....
    You are probably correct, but what I am saying is that why would any such individual have applied for ILR in the last 10 years up to June 2016? There was no need to do so and currently the costs are in excess of £1,000 which hardly encourages people to apply unless they really, really need to do so.
  • My immediate reaction on reading this was "what 2014 Uxbridge by-election!!!!!!!!!!!"

    Now looked it up and no - there was no by-election. So at least my memory is still intact!
This discussion has been closed.